the favorable perception of the democrats in power, let's see, they will obviously be very attentive to the united states, and at the same time, mexico is actively displacing china gradually from the trade balance of the united states, that is, mexico, let's say, is winning its place, yes its niche in in the united states, and their relations are developing quite actively, they managed to manage more or less all aspects of migration there, if the republicans take over the congress or trump comes to power. or another candidate from the republican party, then everyone these things that worsened relations between mexico and the states, there five 7 years ago, they can re-emerge, and obviously the democrats, there joe biden at the moment for mexico, will probably be more of a soft option for the development of relations . and tell me, is the election of a woman president of mexico a political revolution or a continuation of some such trends that we have all been following over the past years and decades, after all, claudia schoenbaum, she is the first woman. who headed the capital of the country, it was also

completely unexpected that this could be the case for in such a conservative country, everything has changed, can you say that? eh, yes, this is a trend that has been going on for quite a long time, women are gradually occupying higher and higher ministerial positions, presidential positions, in peru we have the example of dina buluarte, we have examples of other women, yes there in management positions, there are ministers of internal affairs, there are ministers of foreign affairs, in different countries, they are sometimes in power for a short time, but if this is a trend that can no longer be overcome, and as we have seen, the main candidates who fought each other in mexico were two women, it was claudia schönbaun and it was shochitel gálvez, from different political parties with different backgrounds, but nevertheless two women competed anyway, so if regardless of the result elections, all the same, mexico was led by a woman, which actually happened, but it is possible in principle. to say that despite this,

i would say, decoration of a stable political process, mexican statehood itself is constantly under serious threat, i remember that one of the famous women who led one of the cities in mexico, she was killed literally the day after the election, and it was alfredo, cabrero, i think that's the mayor of the city, coyuca benitez, the candidate for the position of mayor, after this is the mayor of the city of kotiha , yalanda sanchez, this is literally the news of the last days, it is may 29, june 4, and it was said that this yolanda sanchez was constantly tried to blackmail her, kept under the protection of the cartels, when she visited the neighboring state, as far as can be considered. democracy is established when mayors

cities can be held at gunpoint, and then after a certain time there, a year later , kill, this is a characteristic of latin america that we see not only in mexico, that it is local elections, local governors or mayors, they become targets for such cases, mexico, especially the northern states of mexico, it's actually a separate microcosm according to its own rules. there by cartels, criminal groups that compete with each other, we saw a similar situation, for example, in ecuador, when the city of guayaquil, the largest the port of ecuador, one of the largest port cities in latin america on the pacific ocean, several assassination attempts were carried out there and several candidates for mayor of the city of hovaquil were killed, that is, the situation is somewhat similar. on the other hand, if we look at the number of murders in mexico per 100,000 population over the past 5 years, it will steadily decrease. from

27 in 2019 to 23, here are the last figures for 2023, that is, despite all the warnings, mexico still remains a fairly effective state, it is actively developing economically, as i said, it enters the north american market very tightly, and therefore it is impossible to say that mexico is gradually rolling towards some kind of failed state, let's see what the results will be during claudia's presidency, but... from the point of view security, from the point of view of all the influences, including the drug flows of latin america on mexican politics, they now play a much smaller role than there 10 years ago, because they first left for central america in the mid-2010s, and then went to south and are currently concentrated in ecuador, so for mexico we have a relatively favorable conjuncture now, and mexico can become an alternative to china for the united states of america, i mean economically. alternatively, do you have such

opportunities? well, we understand that the country there with a population of 130 million will obviously be difficult to compete with china, which... has more than a billion people, but in those nuances, in those niches, in those industries, supply chains, in some technological industries, so she can occupy a more valuable one, and she will do it successfully, because if it in interests of mexico, it is in the interests of the united states at the moment, and unless there is some fundamental change in relations between the countries as a result of, for example, the election of the united states, then that is exactly what will happen, the united states sees mexico as that country. that neighbor, that partner, which can actually take over that share of production and that share of supplies that the united states wants, if it were to be taken out of china and placed somewhere, and mexico is excellent in this regard, there is education there, there is a large number population, young population, logistically it is close, and so

on and so forth, well, after we see left-wing presidents in mexico as well, and this trend continues in argentina and braza. we can say that there is a certain trend in colombia, by the way, where this has not happened for many decades in a row, we can say that there is such a trend of watering the continent, well, with the exception of argentina, however, everything is the opposite, which is interesting, now latin america, it is approaching the end of the so-called second pink wave, that is, this pink wave began with the 2018 mexican elections, then passed a series of elections there in the 19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd years, and in most countries presidents of the left variety were indeed elected, the exceptions were ecuador, and twice during this period elections were held in ecuador, there was a right-wing candidate, there was now a centrist candidate, argentina, she really broke out of this trend with mr. miley, and mexico, which

started the cycle of the left of this wave, now ended it with the re-election of a leftist president, we will see how much this will happen in other countries, because in colombia, gustavo peter is the first on the left the president lives there for 100 years, and this is the exception, not the rule. in brazil, the competition was very tight, in peru, the competition between castillo, who would have joined this left wave, the red wave, and keika fujimori, who represented the right political spectrum, amounted to 44 thousand votes, that's 0.18% there, if i remember correctly. yatayu, that is, the gaps were minimal, and... if mexico took over the left-wing president to continue this wave, let's look at the rest of ukraine, at least after two or three more elections, well, we can say about the continuation of this trend in the region, or on the contrary, the fragmentation and dispersal of the political balance in latin america, some countries will be right, others will be left, and

all this will be such, you know, an interesting mosaic. by the way, i understand that we have always believed that the right-wing in latin america is more inclined to support ukraine than left-wing politicians, but the behavior of mr. miley... makes me wonder about the correctness of such a definition? you are absolutely right, because we have the example of gabriel borych, who is considered a rather left-wing president, he is the president of chile, and he at one time, the union of the communist party of chile, yes, that sounds quite specific for ukraine, and at the same time, president borych, as it were, shows tenacity in his support for ukraine, this is the vote in the un, this is statements in support of ukraine, this is... or there are telephone conversations with the president at the level of the heads of the foreign ministry, the deputy heads of the foreign ministry, the condemnation of cuba, the condemnation of venezuela, nicaragua, that is , his example demonstrates that no, if, the left does not mean anti-ukrainian or there the pro-ukrainian right, as demonstrated

miley, is also not automatically super pro-ukrainian or anti-ukrainian, everywhere has its own specifics, if, for example, president gustavo petro from colombia will go to the summit. it will also be a bit of a surprise, because he, with his background, should in theory be more pro-russian, but we see, well, that relations with colombia are gradually warming, president lula, on the contrary, he is very cold there, they have a certain with president zelensky, such personal contact is not of the best, let's say, level, so everything is specific from kryna, from the country very different, thank you, thank you mr. oleksii, oleksii. h specialist on latin american issues of the adastra center was in touch with us, we talked with him about what is happening in latin america, in the relations between ukraine and the countries of this region, which is quite important for the world. now we will break for a few minutes, but you stay with us, there is still an important topic ahead.

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we continue the politclub program on tchannel espressa. vitaly portnikov is with you. today

is a rather important event, which in principle has been going on for several days in a row, but is coming to an end. in fact, in the next 15-20 minutes we will learn about the exit pools of the elections to the european parliament, which, as you understand, was elected precisely by them. for three days, friday, saturday and sunday, a lot of people are talking about the fact that in one way or another there are deputies working in the european parliament who cannot independently determine the future of europe. quite limited, and by and large the europeans themselves decided that they would be limited, at one time there was a constitution of the united europe, a proposed commission led by the former president of the french republic valeriescardten, it was rejected, in particular in a referendum in ireland, for it no the residents of the eu countries themselves voted, but at the same time it can be said that despite

such limited powers, the elections to the european parliament are always... seen as a certain trend, a trend in the development of political life in europe, and despite the fact that there are no special surprises, it is clear that the center-right will be the winners of these elections, it is already visible, even from the results that are provided for individual countries, even if we understand that this is a protest vote in many respects, along with this, it is a trend, a trend that will give signs in the next national elections. and that is why the attention of all european leaders is so focused on the elections to the european parliament, and that is why the following election campaigns are organized based on the results of these elections, so it is clear who can really lose, who can really win, well, i will just show you a real exit poll in germany, which is quite a serious one, i would say a sign that

the government in this country may change in the next parliamentary elections, because the opposition bloc... of the christian democratic union and the christian social union, you remember that the representative of this bloc, angela merkel, was the chancellor of germany for many years, he receives 30% of the votes in the elections to the european parliament, but the social democrats, who lead the german government today, only 14%, the results are quite disappointing and in german greens, who received only 12%. voters and the free democrats, who received only five percent of the voters, but the alternative for germany party, whose representatives have just been excluded from even the ultra-right faction of the european parliament, where the dominant force is the party of marine le pein, the french party

of the far right, they have as much as 16% of the vote, that is, it will be a very serious representation, they have improved significantly. their representation in the european parliament in the previous elections to the european parliament were the greens, in fact the favorites of these elections, they had the second place, this is quite a serious moment, in austria an even more serious moment, the leadership of the far-right austrian freedom party, which many, after it became it is known about the readiness of its leader at that time to cooperate with moscow was generally considered to be politically dead, but this... corpse is not something that has come to life, but is also preparing to come to power, because the austrian freedom party received 27% of the votes in the exit polls, so it will have two in two times more deputies in the european parliament than before, the austrian people's party has only 23% and the social democrats 23% of the

vote, so it may happen that at the next parliamentary elections in... austria, the austrian freedom party, this victory in the european elections is the first her victory in any national election in the country, she can claim the position of federal chancellor, that is, the same phenomenon that we have already seen in the netherlands will take place, although the leader of the far-right geert wilders had to give up the position of prime minister to form a ruling a coalition in which his party could be such. i would say serious, but one way or another we can say that this story will be quite serious for the future of those european elections that can now be seen in the coming months,

well, of course, the european parliament itself will change, but now we'll talk about it in detail... we'll talk literally in a minute, your place is waiting for you, the light stays on, for dinner - what you love. a warm bed is made, there will be walks, swings and swimming, they are waiting for you on your streets. at school, in your church, because in your house they dream about you, you are always in front of their eyes, they cry for you, they pray for you, we

did not give up, because we knew that you were already somewhere nearby. half the battle is knowing how hard it is to win, and we will do everything to make it faster to hug you, so when you're home, when we're together, we're more than a family, we're a nation united around you. hello, how are you there, it's okay, slowly, they

gave us nine new tanks, guess what, turn on the video link now, i 'll give you a tour, come, we 'll be here for another two weeks, i'll i will go for a ride, and not only on a tank, but here near the station in grohivka, say that you are visiting a student, they will let you through. well , yes, student, that's my call sign. i will say that you will be admitted to the student, nine there, nine, grozhovka, grozhovka, here, student, student, today you don't comply with information security, tomorrow you will come for... iskanders are hiding. the enemy hears, watch.

we continue our program, and our guest in the studio, diplomat, minister of foreign affairs of ukraine in 2014-2019, pavlo klimkin. congratulations congratulations, mr. vitaliy. so, these elections, they will really change the face of europe that we are talking about, they can hardly push, but they will probably change, politics is very inertial, will there be a right wave, surely will it, will it swallow europe, so far it does not look like that, we we will know the results with you tomorrow, the exit field, that's literally how many minutes after... to what extent today's europe is able

to understand that it is still the europe of the 20th century, and not the 21st, maybe already the 19th, taking into account what happened in evrs, there are no established borders, they will probably be offended if he goes somewhere to the vidin congress, well, it will be a plus. the right-wing faction, and it depends on agreements and even personal egos, miloni and lipen, if there is, it will fundamentally affect the appointment both in the european commission and on other, well, plus, of course, on the distribution the balance sheets of the eurocouncil, where orbán will be pushed into which corner or not, that is, yes, of course, the elections will have a great impact on politics. wow, by the way, the new commission will be just a couple of days before the american elections, formal on november 1, and now the european parliament will start hearing the commissioners, and it will be an interesting

process when someone can come up with more interesting proposals, well, like what he likes to repeat once for 5-7 years macron, most of his proposals are like water in sand, but some still resonate and work, if... i see that there are several leaders for today who are ready to go beyond standard european political correctness, or will go, we will see literally in a couple of months, and tell me, if we turn to an event that will be closer than understanding how the european parliament will function, that is, the peace summit in switzerland, to what extent, what is the current account of this diplomatic, i would say, duel between the west and china, ukraine and china, russia? if it's a diplomatic duel, well, i guess, well, if the president of ukraine loudly accuses china of undermining the summit, that's a duel, and the chinese

actually. it may be unpleasant, but not critical. i think, by the way, that with brazilians, it goes deeper, because the latin american mentality, it is like that, and the chinese, they, they are in eternity, they see everything strategically. we need to work with the non-western world, it is becoming more and more difficult. someone begins to think just about... themselves, but for most countries that mean something in the west, they think that russia's victory is something that doesn't fit, that our victory is something that doesn't fit, but the issue is chinese-brazilian a plan, so that neither ours nor yours, there is no plan, there is just somewhere we stop, and then we start, we start talking, and how do we start talking, and how will it turn out, how will it go , who guarantees what, who guarantees that... that

there will be no fall and general mentality about military aid, but the chinese don't really care, but not critical. the chinese want russia to be tied to them for the long term. they believe that personal relations are working now, and whether they will work in 10 years, who knows who will be the leaders of china and russia. ago the logic of the chinese is very simple: bind russia either. which way at least for the next 40-50 years, when they believe that the world will be determined by the strategic rivalry between the united states and china, and they will follow this path to the end, by the way, the brazilians too, but the brazilians have many other things in mind, well, how many 380 billion assets do they have abroad, if i'm not mistaken, now in a couple of days there will be a decision, well, will it be

and... will it be legally formalized there immediately or not, let's see if it will be a political decision on the use of profits from russian assets, and already now i hear from the arabs, from the brazilians, from the chinese, and what will happen to our assets, i tell them, well, you are not going to attack uruguay tomorrow, they say no, no, no, but maybe we let's also behave badly for the event, you understand, that is, in fact, these things, which are very cool for us on the one hand, they influence. even to the summit, so the logic of this conference in switzerland is actually to hold as much as possible in today's reality, and it is actually super difficult, phenomenally difficult, at least part of it of the west, in tune, but, as far as i'm concerned, both the chinese and the saudis, they left the summit not so much because of some anti-ukrainian, they don't have anything so anti-ukrainian or completely

pro-russian, they have a logic that... that they they will take it upon themselves, tamerdaan once told everyone that i will be the best mediator, focus on me, come to istanbul, which we saw, and now the saudis say, now we will rather be next with the support of the chinese, that is, it is a struggle for place switzerland can be said to be such a world, it is a struggle for the place of the saudis, as parts and such a connecting link between the event and the non- event, remember? austria used to be during the cold war and vienna was such a kind of link, but now there is a struggle between the qataris and the saudis for who will be the link between the west and the non-west, and i believe that the saudis have a chance, and the chances are actually serious, because behind them, the chinese are behind them, and they have oil, they can actually influence oil prices, and qatar has gas, gas is a good

story, and being middlemen is also a good story, but the saudis still have scale moreover, if the saudis increase production, they can simply collapse oil prices, and this is actually a good lever for russia, but russia is not particularly sweaty about gas, the chinese keep it in the dark, gazprom, by the way, last year showed the first time in 1999. negative balance, so gas is an important story, and qatar with its tankers is also cool, but the saudis, in my opinion, are the number one in today's history, and they want to play this story out according to the notes, and how can they play it out , it will end the swiss peace summit will be approved, well, in principle , by...