the chinese, and they have oil, they can actually influence oil prices, in qatar , gas, gas is a good story, and being middlemen is also a good story, but the saudis still have more scale, if the saudis increase production, then they can simply collapse the oil prices, and this is actually a good leverage on russia, but russia is not particularly sweaty in terms of gas, the chinese hold it. after the end of the peace summit, switzerland will approve , well, in principle. a solution that won't work,

right? well, the decision will be rather political declarative, that is, it will record that among the positions there is a desire to move forward, that is, in my opinion, the result of this summit is the summit itself, and not some documents that will be signed, approved or something like that, that is, itself the fact of the summit and what is managed to be held... this event-not -event format is, in my opinion, much more important there than the decisions that can be made there. and then, what will happen next? will saudi arabia try to hold its own conference, or will the west discuss it with it? of course the west. saudi arabia will allow, i emphasize the verbs will allow to hold this conference, if the europeans agree to it, if the chinese agree, and if in principle they are not in favor of...

objecting to the americans, well, then russia will already be rammed, and why is russia doing it? and russia, in my opinion, in today's logic, is ready to wage war in the future, but understands that it is not in its interests, well, look at what is happening to the economy, look at how it is being depleted , look at how it is being cut off, and the americans are not just like that now, and the europeans to them they help, they came. the reddest red lines, in my opinion, to hit with american weapons , let it be with restrictions with the approval of the kremlin there, yes, well, in fact, everything is still more complicated there, but in my opinion, biden deliberately threw this phrase in order not to get nervous later, there and so these signs of hysteria began, you see that putin, well, first of all he says, here we can change the nuclear doctrine there... we have to change,

then training, but he said one thing that many did not notice, but many that it counts, he said, if the exchange begins nuclear strikes between russia and europe, then the americans will not come to your aid, that is , he called into question article five, previously in such a form as he did at the st. petersburg forum, he never did it, he tried to sweat it there, bypass it ... and that is, all these decisions, and the assets that we all hope will be adopted next week, they actually already go against what i call the critical interests of today's russian regime, and this is a completely conscious logic, since the americans have become secondary to use sanctions to knock out ways of circumventing sanctions, but earlier sanctions were introduced, they were monitored there, and there were thousands of ways of circumvention, and now... they gradually began to be closed,

they began to be closed through dubai, they began to be closed through turkey, well, how was it in the first quarter, i there are no statistics for the second quarter, but their trade there fell by 30%, but only immediately, and the chinese are already watching, but the chinese don’t have trade there, there are settlements through chinese banks, that is, in fact, the valves of the states and europeans are also being tightened. there are still possibilities, well, not just like that. er, the chinese leader was in paris and had, as far as i understand, a good conversation according to the chinese, 900 plus billion is chinese exports to europe, and the whole chinese drive is economic, what depends, on the fact that their whole green economy works , from a panel to an electric car, if the europeans at least raise something there by a couple of additional percent. then

for the chinese it is, as they say, syrup on eggs, the americans are now introducing, as you saw , 100%, this is actually a prohibitive tariff on chinese goods. this means that for the chinese this one european exports are a cool story, so any arrangements regarding the conference, whether it will be in saudi arabia or not in saudi arabia, i have already heard there, what an idiotic assumption, starting from saudi arabia, any geography, but it depends on the extent to which the states, europe and china will be ready to move to the next steps, everyone understands perfectly well. firstly, you need to understand what is from europe, which you and i have already talked about, and secondly, everyone still looks at washington. that is, of course, will delay all logic, because it depends on what will happen in washington, well, that is, purely on gestures,

on what will happen now in brussels , and on what will happen in washington, just like that, that is, it is in in any case , the presidential election in the united states can be postponed or not, eh? it is i who believe that it can speed it up, and macron did not leave his talks about the olympic truce and so on, he can try to play this story with the chinese, to hold some event under this, but this does not mean that the process will dial drive, i believe that in today's reality, well, here is my assessment, if you will, my intuition, any... the process of serious conversation of geopolitical players, it does not mean that we will follow their logic, but their logic will work as for me at the beginning of the 25th year, not earlier, well, what i feel there from my communication, both with the west and not

with the west, and of course we need to prepare for this, since the dynamics may change, but the saudis we would very much like to host the next event. here you are right if you you say that they can influence russia, then this means that on the other hand they will influence ukraine, because any such conference is unlikely to end as the majority of ukrainians wanted, right? and it, i think, will not end with some critical and even breakthrough decisions, because even if they try to convince us that russia should participate there, albeit in a limited format. at the first conferences, i think it will be more about humanitarian issues, hardly anyone will go further, and hardly anyone will go further to american elections, this does not mean that this process is emotionally so acceptable,

comfortable and so on for us, it will be very, very difficult, but it also does not mean that there will be the start of some political... process, well, any process , and what is a political process, a ceasefire, is it a humanitarian or a political process? a cease-fire can be both, that is, if it is a cease-fire, if a truce is clearly a political process, that is, a cease-fire can be a political process, a cease-fire is another thing, right? well, a ceasefire - it can be something there for a day or two for some purposes, for some conversations, so on, so on, so on, to exchange prisoners there, to establish. some additional corridors, whatever, but the truce is clearly a political process, since the truce has a more or less permanent character, when you talk about the truce, you, you are in a political situation by definition, that is, in

international humanitarian law and international law, of course, there are nuances, but a ceasefire can be and purely humanitarian history. the truce is purely political, well, then explain to me, if the question of a truce arises, how ready will both moscow and kyiv be to talk about it from a political point of view? apparently, definitely apparently both here and there, that is why i say that the next event, whatever it is called, there is a conference or something else, whether it will be in saudi arabia, or it is unlikely to come to political issues. but some humanitarian track may arise there, and i also do not rule out that we will not be pressured, but, let's say, to convince that the time has come for a humanitarian track, it is necessary to talk at least about humanitarian issues, and i do not rule out

that the europeans will somehow join this, well, nevertheless, if macron is talking about the olympic games there, well, it is rather cease fire, because... even in ancient greece, no one held back for more than a couple of weeks, this story is also known to us, so we must be ready for... for different options for the development of the situation, this year as well, but more than 25, and today we cannot clearly write down all of them the factors that will influence it, of course, we can play on our fingers there, but in the 25th year there are too many unknowns to clearly write there now, either we go there or we go here, you don't think that the american administration would like finish... the conflict in ukraine, the conflict in the middle east even before the elections? the conflict

over gas is 100% because it affects election prospects. as for our war with russia, it is a topic that is present politically in washington, it is a topic that is present emotionally in many americans, but for polls i've seen don't seem to be affected by this topic. on the motivation of americans to vote, and in general i see only two foreign policy topics today that can change the electoral preferences of americans, and i believe that these are china and gaza today, although even they will not be the first, second, or third, if you look at the latest polls, here's what my american friends are showing me is... the economy, the mexican border, and the abortion issue, these are actually the three issues that will determine the election,

which will largely determine the election and with a high probability will determine the elections in swing states, i.e. these three questions are now, in my opinion, 90+ motivations of americans, this does not mean that it will be like this in six months, since the international situation can change, but... but i don't rule out that at some point the administration, let's say, yes, some kind of pause, will have a good effect on our electoral prospects, but so far i don't see it, so far i see the opposite, so what's the understanding that let's raise the stakes , let's say that the russian regime can't advance, let's make it so that it doesn't advance further, and i understand that behind this ... there are also agreements between key figures of democrats and

republicans, so there are significant differences there on israel, on gaza, but on ukraine well, we like to talk about bipartisan consensus, maybe there is no consensus, you saw what happened with aid, so to speak, yes, but on the other hand, mike johnson said that we should hit russia with american weapons. but the general understanding is shared between democrats and republicans, i i believe that there are, well, with the exception of certain oddballs who are already completely on the flanks, so here i do not see any desire in the states to lower rates for today, on the contrary, it seems to me that the americans are ready to raise rates with russia and believe that that it will affect properly. and on geopolitics, and on the projection on china and so on, that is, such readiness,

as far as i am concerned, it is, well, that is, it can be concluded that this is why president biden said there that he allows american weapons to be struck on the territory of russia, he met with volodymyr zelenskyi in france, will meet with him in italy, but at the same time he can afford not to participate in the peace summit, but i understand his motives, not that i support them, well, listen, during such a campaign. . when everything is 50/50 to be absent for two weeks in the states, this is such a story, and biden now needs to work 14 hours, a difficult story, now there are many different speculations about his age and so on, he needs to be present, he needs to be media, so as far as i'm concerned there's communication normandy, paris, italy, i think that... the strategy for six months will be determined there. thank you. pavlo klimkin, diplomat, former minister

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the results of the exit polls for the elections to the european parliament are coming down right before our eyes, we can analyze them during that time. certain trends remain, not all countries have been counted yet, in many countries, the results of the exit polls are not yet available, approximately half of the mandates have already been distributed by and large, if we talk about the overall distribution of mandates, it must be said that the social democrats have half of the mandates so far , i'll say it again, conservatives have 87 seats, centrists, liberals - 42 seats, far-right factions, which in principle now have three groups, in total, 13, 44, 24, i won't go into it now. by an accurate count of all of them the seats of far-right parties together, this will all change, and the more you understand, they cannot always, not always

, find a common language among themselves, let's talk about countries, the most interesting, as i said, is the distribution of seats in germany, because the opposition christian - the democratic union, the leader of which was angela merkel for many years in a row, she was the federal chancellor of germany almost all this time, he is ahead. the parties of the ruling coalition have almost as much on their own as they do together, they have a little more, but it's still for a serious blow to them, the christian democratic union and the christian social union together have 29 seats, the social democrats 14, the greens 12, the free democrats - five, but they have become the second party in germany, like us, by the way, with you more than once predicted, for germany, this is a far-right party with pro-moscow tendencies, which is largely excluded even from the far-right factions in the european parliament, which

is oriented towards the national association of marine le pen, and it has 16 seats, which is a lot, it is more than the social democrats. sara bagakhneh's alliance is also another party that is accused of ties to moscow, it is such a left party, an ultra-left party, it has six seats, it has overtaken the party of the left. which alone has three seats in the parliament, this is also a serious result for a completely new party that has just appeared on the political scene, let's look at france, in france there is a national association, marine le pen's party gets 30 seats in the parliament, this european, this is a serious success, in principle, the national association always wins with such a big one margin in the elections to the european parliament, but in any case this is a trend, it is serious for them... this moment is related to their expectations in the presidential parliamentary elections in the future, emmanuel macron's party has only 14 seats and 13 seats were won by

the socialists , followed by the radical left, also known for its sympathies with moscow, milanchon, they have eight seats and the republicans, who once, think about it, ruled france, as well as the socialists, many presidents came from their ranks, they have only six seats, a serious blow to the european parliament, in fact. let's look at austria. austria is also a very interesting result, i would say. for the first time in history, as i have already told, it seems to me that the austrian freedom party is winning the national elections. an ultra-right party known for its ties to moscow. in principle, they believe that she is almost doomed to win the parliamentary elections in austria, the elections to the european parliament only confirm this trend. there was a time it is very difficult to take this party into the parliament. coalition, when it first entered this parliamentary coalition, many european countries announced that they would boycott, the austrian government and

deputies from ministers from the austrian freedom party, now everything will be the opposite, now the austrian freedom party will decide with whom to go into a coalition, if she will win the election, the austrian conservatives will get one less seat than the austrian freedom party and the austrian social democrats will get one less seat, which means that... if in austria the conservatives and social democrats still find opportunities to somehow change the attitude of one party to the other, they can form a grand coalition and leave the far right in opposition, however, if the austrian freedom party simply wins the election, it will be difficult to do so, as it turned out to be difficult to do in the netherlands, the leader of the far right, there you know, geert wilders, he refused to be prime minister, but his party has leading positions in the government, just formed, by the way, let's look at the nether... in the netherlands the party won related to the social democrats, it is a left

party, they once united in a coalition, both the greens and the left, and they have eight seats, geert wilders' party only seven, and the centrists only have four seats, which is also not very good for them, this is a party that has been at the center of, i would say, the dutch government for many years, and that's it. in fact, a decrease in influence at a time when, by and large, we can say that a representative of the centrist dutch marclut can become the new secretary general of nato soon, so let's look at spain, the people's alliance, which by a large margin won the recent elections to the spanish parliament, it also won the elections to the european parliament, 22 seats, but it's 32%, but it's not a very big margin. from the spanish socialist workers' party, whose leader pedro sanchet retained the post of prime minister, remaining in second place in the national elections, with the support of left-wing parties and regional parties, by

and large... the left has more than just these seats of the spanish socialists, but also the seats of the sumar coalition, which has four seats in parliament and the far-left movement pademos, which has two seats in the parliament, so by and large, this basically says that the spanish left is not doing so badly, but seven seats were won by the far-right party vox, which just ... recently before the elections to the european parliament managed to hold a large pre-election rally in madrid in support of it, and marine le pen came to this rally, and george meleni, the prime minister of italy, and viktor orban addressed this rally via video link, we don't have it yet, unfortunately, the results the elections in hungary and in italy, it would be interesting to see how this presence affected this story, but there is... the elections in

bulgaria, in bulgaria, it's such an interesting moment, because there's something, literally right now there's going to be an election in the parliament is an important thing, and by and large the winner of these elections was herb, this is the famous party of former prime minister boyko borisov, which even now wants to regain power, it has 26% of the vote, five seats in the parliament, we continue the changes, party that recently was. in coalition with herb, but this coalition broke up, has 16% of the vote and three seats, and also has almost 15% of the vote and also three seats is the ultra-right revival party, which, it is oriented towards moscow, and this is also not such an important point, they believe that it can become the winner of the elections, however, this trend of the elections to the european parliament does not show this, and this is also a very important

moment for us, because if gerb and... er, we continue the changes, we will have to form a coalition again, no matter how much they don't like themselves, but this is an important moment for them, it will mean that they have failed, i have to say that now, when everything is finished in bulgaria and the parliamentary results are already available, they are very similar to the results in the european parliament. because they almost duplicate them, and i have a minute there when i can inform them that the emblem party has 26% of the votes in the parliament in the party, we continue the changes 16% in the revival, 15%, and the socialists have 14%, by and large the calculation is only the beginning of the calculation, one might say,

and... let's hope that we will soon understand how the whole situation will look in terms of how we will see which europe in as a result, not only when we talk about the elections to the european parliament, but also in the formation of national governments, because the formation of the bulgarian government should also be quite an important moment in what we see now. in the future support of ukraine, thank you for this evening, stay with espresso, this program was conducted for you by vitaly portnikov, and until the next meetings, i wish you a peaceful evening, dear viewers, may you be blessed with victory and peace.

this is about politics, about the world, we are talking with the head of the committee on foreign affairs from the polish sejm and the head of the council of of cooperation with ukraine pavel koval. congratulations! i congratulate you! i am maria gurska, journalist of the ukrainian tv channel espresso and editor-in-chief of the eu sister site. the key news from poland this week is the launch of the eastern shield state defense program. details of what the largest operation to strengthen nato's eastern flank will look like since 1940. let's try to analyze what are the key goals of launching the eastern shield and what is poland preparing for? this is primarily border protection, it is important because belarus actually functions as a part of russia. i always said that, that is, all the time during the last months, he said that there is no point in building illusions. belarus uses

more... as a specific weapon in the hybrid.