friends, allies, whatever you call it, because it is still being formed, but from my point of view, it is a formation from the side of china, a bipolar world in its confrontation with the united states of america, it is happening gradually, visibly or imperceptibly, but in a certain way and using this factor , let's say, russian aggression against ukraine, and various possible factors that now... exist in the world, and what do you think about china's so-called peace plan, this new one that was made public after the lihue voyage, and then, by the way , was discussed by the minister of foreign affairs affairs of the republic of china vni and chief adviser to the president of brazil marim, and this is already such a chinese-brazilian consensus, what is this and why is this? well, the first points that we will look at are about what is needed, the first two points that the situation should not be escalated, military operations should not expand. zones

there, the military should not expand and there is no need to add fuel to the fire, and therefore, from my point of view, if this point, in particular, was not discussed with putin, or at least it was not covered in the conversation and in the final communiqué between putin and sydzenpin after their meeting, it is obvious and not obvious that the directives are directed not at russia, but at ukraine, because putin escalated in general. the situation, during his visit kharkiv started this new campaign, and it is obvious that if china would like the situation not to be aggravated by both sides, and now it is obvious which side is escalating it, then he should discuss it with putin and put it out for the sun , but we did not hear this, instead there is such a common, common piece of paper, with which the sly guy went even before four countries, in particular to turkey, to'.

he discussed the arab emirates and egypt, so that ukraine and the west do not escalate the situation, well, obviously, yes, and this is not fueling the fire, fire is such a standard phrase for the west not to give weapons to ukraine. similarly , the second point states that the parties should create favorable conditions for negotiations and dialogue. and there you can also see the desire of china... to bring ukraine and russia to the negotiating table, and it is obvious that in these negotiations there are two sides, who find it difficult to talk to each other, will need the communicator that china sees itself as. the rest of the points, they coincide to a greater extent with what ukraine offers, and it concerns the exchange, for example, there, uh, and the deported, and those captured by the military, nuclear security, and so on, that is... the rest of the points , they coincide with

ukraine, and then the following question arises: if china proposes such and such a plan of its own, and this plan, it does not differ from the proposals of ukraine, because ukraine also chose only three points that are the most non-controversial among those countries that are invited, in particular the global south, and it is very obvious that these points were chosen both for china and for its peaceful 10 points, precisely... so it is very surprising why china, for example, as a neutral party does not participate in this summit, and right away the question arises, because china offers its alternative, repeating it, and it is not interested in any way to support the ukrainian proposals, but could it be that cathay is just interested in showing its leadership, say in brics, ot he proposes a plan, and if brazil supports it, the south african republic has already supported it, russia will join. well, i don't

really count on india, but everyone else can simply join the chinese plan, it will be the plan of the organization, at this summit of the foreign ministers of the brics countries in moscow, such an idea can absolutely pop up, it can absolutely be, we will see literally tomorrow this summit starts the day after tomorrow, but this is really this plan, it was discussed precisely with the brics countries, and as an answer we later heard that the representatives of these countries of brazil, bars. saudi arabia will not send its representatives to switzerland, particularly at a high level, and it is obvious that china is trying to create its own platform with its so-called peace proposals, where russia will agree to these proposals, because russia has several times through the mouth of lavrov putin talked about the acceptability of precisely chinese initiatives, and it is not clear from this. brics, some support

for chinese proposals, it will be discussed and china will thus try to them promote, or at least in it they will be prepared on the table for the right ... moment, why would the united states call for public china to participate in the peace summit, is this the hope that they will be listened to, or is it just such a propaganda story? well, in fact, it has already passed, the matter is already a matter of diplomatic drag, because the role of china is clear to everyone, it seems to me that neither the united states nor the west have any expectations that china will take sides of the west, whether it will support, for example, in the form in which we would like ukraine, but still this is a diplomatic overture to the presence of china, especially given how russia does not want this presence, it is, it is, and this is an attempt to exert such pressure, perhaps even on the part of the united states, and the desire to show

us, as for european partners, what china is like, this rapprochement between china and russia, which is already almost final, because... what actually the united states america has to push its european partners to make certain decisions, and for example, the big seven, it finally has to consider, let's say, the measures that concern chinese banks there regarding assistance to russia in the purchase of dual-purpose goods, and it is obvious that this non-constructiveness and rapprochement with russia is necessary, and in particular , the demonstration of even such an approach as in... participation in the swiss summit, it will help to convince these partners, that is, do you think that china has already finally decided that it will be next to russia, and not neutral in the further development of events? i no, i don't want to say that china will not,

let's say that it chooses a side, china will act exactly as it sees fit, that is, in this case in switzerland , it explained its presence with such a diplomatic formula. and explained this presence and it was supported by various other countries, that is, china is not alone in this case, besides, china received our deputy minister, and they talked about the fact that they will maintain bilateral relations there, will interact, well, in this way, he is trying to balance the minimal diplomatic interaction that we have, especially during the war, that is, about the recognition of china, which will be recognized. all completely, i can't say, because china views russian aggression against ukraine through the lens of its own confrontation with the united states of america, and this is what drives what behavior it chooses, what it does , and what the limits of its behavior are. i do not think that it

will finally transition, because there is a great interest in the interaction of the united states, and primarily with european countries, and there is a lot in china ... there is still important moments for interaction, so it will be, we will see this cunning chinese policy, at the same time, i want to say that the western countries, as we see, do not break relations with china to the end, even understanding that it seriously helps russia, so that there is such a possibility and the feeling that this interaction can be even greater, and when china really helps... russia, in particular with military methods, it will bring serious consequences in the development of the war. plus there are still small hopes for china as a deterrent to putin's nuclear threats. although we we see how putin tries to network these threats, even in the moments when he

meets xijin pini, but behind the scenes, even european leaders recognize the participation of china, india, as deterrents of these threats, and therefore the diplomat. balancing from all sides, it will be present. thank you, thank you, ms. natalie. nataliya peleksienko butyrska, an expert on east asian issues, was with us. on the air, and now from asia, the east to the middle east with vyacheslav likhach, historian, political scientist, researcher, member of the expert council of the center for civil liberties, he is in israel. congratulations mr. vyacheslav. so, let's start with the event that happened yesterday, which was such a big celebration... there was the release of four hostages for the israelis, but it's been mixed in the world, like many other events that are happening in the region, say, four people released, but a large number of civilians of the palestinian authority died during this operation, hamas has already called it, that it is not a victory, but a defeat, and how do you generally

consider what happened, it is definitely one of the most successful operations since the beginning of the war eight months ago. it is definitely so sacred, because the release of any of the hostages is, in fact, the goal for which they heard. this war, for which all these sacrifices were made, and the operation may not have been perfect, but it was extremely difficult, one of the most difficult operations not only in this war, but in many years, and it definitely was, it can be considered a great luck . what do you think about what will be the fate of the biden peace plan, with which the prime minister of israel, belyami netanyahu, has already agreed without question. but it now threatens him with just a government crisis, no one knows what

israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu agreed to, and biden's peace plan has two significant, well , two significant obstacles in the way of its implementation, they are called israel and hamas, that is, the two parties that this plan is supposed to reconcile, so far neither israel nor hamas. this plan was not accepted in its entirety, benjamin netanyahu is allegedly giving signals that he is serious about this plan and is ready to accept it, of course he acts under considerable pressure, and not only from the united states, but also from other international partners, but he has never once articulated clearly that he agrees to a complete ceasefire and an end. a military operation in gaza, this is what hamas demands,

they demand to achieve all the previous intermediate steps, everything starts with the formation of a temporary suspension of the ceasefire, then the release of one batch of hostages, then there are other steps, but everything rests on the fact that hamas does not believe that israel is ready for... complete cessation hostilities, he believes that israel will agree to a temporary ceasefire to release the hostages and then continue the war, hamas seems to be right about this, perhaps this is what benjamin netanyahu has in mind, but he did not say clearly, what exactly does he sign up to, what exactly does he support, and exactly how does he interpret biden's peace plan, which he will largely agree to. and yes, if he agrees to the cessation of hostilities, it

threatens him with the collapse of the coalition and early elections. and how much in principle one can realize what the ultimate goals of the prime minister and the government are in the operation, well , they are talking about the destruction of hamas, but we see that hamas itself continues to occupy a rather serious position in the gas sector, even after such a long time of war, but since in .. we can talk about an absolutely unprecedented period, today is the 247th day, hamas actually has intact battalions, so during this raid to release the hostages, they talked about the fact that there was a hamas battalion in this city absolutely, which was intact from previous wars actions, then how much time is needed for the actual liquidation of hawasa, is such a liquidation even possible, in this settlement, in this refugee camp, the defense army. in fact, it has not seriously entered yet, and so there are combat

units of hamas, as well as in many other parts of the gaza strip, according to preliminary estimates, maybe 50%, maybe a little less of the quantitative composition of hamas retains the ability to continue fighting, and this means that according to 8 months... well , only a little more than half of everything was destroyed potential of hamas, this means that this war can continue at this rate until at least the end of this year, or even longer, but actually a good question is the question of the ultimate goal of this war, because when operation steel sword began, the goal.. two things were announced: the first

is the release of the hostages, the second is the removal of hamas from power in the gas sector, the destruction of hamas's military potential and the elimination of its political potential. the removal of hamas from power in gaza can be said to have happened, although no other. authorities in sector was not established, the release of the hostages, as we can see, in general, did not take place in full. and the most successful from this point of view were the negotiations and the way of exchange, in fact, as a result of military operations such as yesterday, only a few hostages were released, there were only a few such successful operations. what does it mean? this means that even those, ah, the goal that was announced

at the beginning of the war, is still far from its achievement, at least as much. but this is not the ultimate goal, because the actual government of the state of israel sees in this place after the hostages are released, the rude power of hamas will be destroyed, and its fighting potential too, what should actually happen next on this day after, the first day after the war, what will it look like, the government of israel in 8 months so and did not formulate his own. the israeli government says it does not want the palestinian national authority, which lost power there due to a rebellion and coup by hamas 18 years ago, to return to the territory. ah, israel insists that control over security in this territory, he will continue to carry out

an indefinite period, this means a de facto return. military control, that is , occupation, and that means that the israeli government does not have a final solution, yes, excuse the conjunction, that is, some vision of the future that can come after this war, and in fact it means that the israeli government is trying not to force, let's say, mildly so, events, or, as he recently expressed. netanyahu is dragging out this war, perhaps hoping that the white house will change by the end of it. year what would be for netanyahu personally and as he thinks for israel as a state, is very good. and tell me, mr. vyacheslav, at the beginning of this war, we cited as an example the fact that it was possible to create a government of national unity in

israel, that some representatives of the opposition went to the government of mr. netanyahu, among them, of course, general bini was the main figure. ganz, who became a minister in this government, now, just a few minutes ago, it became known that ganz is going to resign from this military cabinet, which was formed after the war, that he did not even come to the meeting of the war cabinet because he was going to resign, that is , this model of national unity does not work or what? it stopped working, this is a crisis that erupted not today and not yesterday and even... this decision that hans would leave the government was a consequence of the non-fulfillment of certain conditions that were publicly announced a few weeks ago, that is, it was a natural process, and leaders, the most important thing is that such a moderate centrist liberal opposition, which joined the government after october 7 for

creation of a government of national unity, it does not share. it is this strategic vision of benjamin netanyahu on how to conduct the war and on the future of the gas sector, or rather, she does not share the lack of this strategic vision on the part of netanyahu, and the immediate reason that has led to gantz now leaving the government is that gantz has been pressing netanyahu to accept a peace proposal articulated by... united states president joe biden, and he was not happy with how netanyahu was avoiding a direct and clear answer, whether he agrees to the cessation of hostilities. without hans and without those political forces that have already left the government of national unity,

the coalition remains valid, that is, it does not mean automatically. the destruction of the early election coalition, but actually, if netanyahu accepts biden's proposal, it will mean the collapse of the coalition for him, because the far-right parties, tseonudotit and otsmayugudit, which are part of the government, will certainly leave the government after that, they do not agree to a peace proposal biden and speak quite aggressively about. that is, this pressure from the united states for netanyahu to accept these proposals would mean for him personally the destruction of the coalition that he ... leads and the end of his term as prime minister, because after early elections he has very little chance of retaining his position

in the government . tell me, mr. vyacheslav, how much it is possible for the situation to worsen in the north, because in recent days everyone is talking about the fact that there can be exactly such a situation in the north, as in the south of israel, that hezbela is preparing for approximately the same actions that hamas was preparing for, well with in addition to the fact that israel has been preparing for a possible counterattack for the last eight, the last eight months, under such a scenario the escalation with hizballah will not happen, as it happened on october 7 at the beginning of the war with hamas, but hizballah definitely has a much more powerful and dangerous missile potential and in general it is probably the largest military non-state military. power in the world, so the confrontation with sisbola can be much more critical for israel, much more difficult than the confrontation with

hamas. yes, indeed, in the last days the intensity of mutual shelling and uav strike exchanges between israel and hizballah in lebanon, north of israel, is increasing significantly. and they say now is the time for israel to decide if it's ready to step up the fighting against hizballah and push that threat away from the borders, uh, or if hizbollah feels that israel doesn't have enough resolve and enough means, which means that hizballah will increase the pressure , because that's how it works in the middle east, so israel is really on the threshold, not high, it

seems to me that despite the increase the intensity of hostilities, they still remain, as they say in israel, well below the threshold of escalation, after which the war becomes irreversible, it seems to me that... well, actually , it has not been calm there for the last eight months, and several hundred hezbollah fighters have already has been eliminated, and the israel defense forces daily strikes the positions of hizbollah militants on the territory of lebanon. currently, international players, including the united states and the european union, are doing everything they can to pressure the lebanese government to take certain measures and pressure the ksbu to prevent. a significant war in the region, but it seems to me that the more important factor here is the period that the islamic republic of iran is currently experiencing, on which hizballah, politically, financially

and in a military sense, depends entirely and completely, and the islamic republic of iran is currently in the wrong political period in order to start a new wave of escalation, it has to go through this... transition period of power change, so in the next few months i don't expect iran to allow, or to order hizbollah to start more aggressive actions against israel that would lead to a really significant war on midnight thank you vyacheslav likhachev, historian, political scientist, researcher, member of the expert council of the center for civil liberties in israel, and now from the middle east to latin america. with oleksiy otkydach, specialist in latin america, adastra center. congratulations, mr. oleksiy. good day. well, let's start with the news of the last few days.

the president of argentina, javier millay, will not be present at the peace summit in switzerland. he refused both a meeting with the president of ukraine volodymyr zelenskyi and a meeting with the president of france emmanuel macron, his european tour has been significantly shortened. well, until recently we considered mr. miley one of the most important supporters of ukraine. in latin america, the president of ukraine volodymyr zelensky flew to his inauguration, despite all, i would say so, er, the strangeness of the composition of the participants of this ceremony of such far-right politicians, who was there in the company of viktor orban, let's say, other supporters of donald trump , and now javier millay doesn't even want to attend the peace summit. what 's going on? they immediately play a big role here several factors. first, in general. if what president miley demonstrated, his foreign policy is quite, i would say, emotional, that is, he often makes statements, or steps, visits, which are conditioned... if by his

subjective desire, his subjective preferences . secondly, it has a large number of internal challenges, and it is obvious that certain leaders, especially in latin america, especially in africa, that is , in those countries, yes, which are not so involved in the european context, which are not so involved in our invasion there in our... war, they consider first of all on internal domestic factors, and then they already think about foreign policy, but in fact for the expert environment, i am sure for the ministry of foreign affairs and for many, in general, this refusal from the point of view of miley, is a surprise, because the relations between the leaders have developed quite actively, quite well, conversations took place also coordination, and there at the level of the ministry of foreign affairs, there the ambassador and so on, that is, everything logically led to the fact that he should go, here for certain

reasons. which are known, well, except to him personally, to his closest entourage, he refuses, and it is actually extremely difficult to analyze why, because everything went quite logically, well, in other words, in fact, it cannot be assumed that the president of argentina could take into account any of his own special contacts with moscow or beijing, he refused to join the brics, that's right, and yes 100% that it is not under pressure from the russians there or not under pressure, for example, there is china, we know that countries, for example, there are colombia, peru, ecuador, they will be present at the peace summit at a certain level, and at the same time, these countries have the most leaders who are the most, let's say, positively disposed towards , much more than miley, are positively disposed to the russians, to the chinese, and therefore no, we cannot assess that

miley's refusal was caused by something external. pressure, now to another latin american country, where there is also a change of power, that is, president miley recently came to power, unexpectedly, in in mexico, it can be said that this is such a change of power, which speaks of the continuation of the course that in recent years has been associated with the president of this country, lópez obrador, such a charismatic politician, a long-term leader of the opposition, who came to power, but the new president, claudia sheinbaum, is considered... a person , who will be, so to speak, the heiress of her political teacher, will she not be, or does it not happen in mexico that there is a direct heir, in fact, this is one of the rather long political traditions of mexico, that in mexico the power of the president is quite strong, the presidential term lasts 6 years, and even a so-called term arose, it is very difficult to explain from the point of view of linguistic etymology, but such an heir, yes, as

conventionally there in russia under... which i want to see as the next president. in the case of claudia sheinbaum, this is basically what happened. and we see that in the elections, in principle, she defeated not only one opposition party there, but the three largest, generally opposition parties, which united in one bloc, in one coalition, and these are the parties that used to fight between. and competed with each other, i.e. morena's presidential party, first lópez obradora, now claudia schönbaun, she managed to win the elections back in 2018, now the 2024 elections, and in fact 12 years of mexican history will pass under the banner of this party , which was able to wrest power from a completely different political class in mexico, both left

-wing and right-wing. well center-left, let's say so, and what can the politics be, what changes can you expect, there are some changes in politics that will distinguish claudia schönbau from lópez obrador, in particular in foreign policy, in relations with america, in the attitude to the conflict between russia and ukraine. i don't think we will see any radical change in foreign policy. klavya shinbaun is quite old, let 's say, an associate of lópez abrador, she supported him in the presidential campaign of 2000. the sixth year of 2012, that is, they have been cooperating for quite a long time, they are in the same team, they rotate, let's say yes in the same circle, she shares him views, in principle, as such a social leader, for the first time cladium showed itself during the student protests of 1987 against the neoliberal so-called reforms, and in latin america not...