and is quite aggressive about them, that is, this pressure from the united states for netanyahu to accept these proposals will mean for him personally the destruction of the coalition he leads and the end of his term as prime minister, because after the early elections he has a very little chance of keeping a position in the government. tell me, mr. vyacheslav, and... how much is it possible for the situation to worsen in the north, because in recent days everyone is talking about the fact that there could be exactly such a situation in the north, as in the south of israel, that hezbollah is preparing for approximately such actions that hamas was preparing for, well, with the education that israel has been preparing for a possible attack from the south for the last eight, the last eight months, then under such a scenario the escalation with hizballah will not happen, as it happened on july 7. since the beginning of the war with

hamas, but hezbollah definitely has a much more powerful and dangerous missile capability, and in general it is probably the largest military non-state military power in the world, so the confrontation with hezbollah can be much more critical for israel, much more difficult than the confrontation with hamas, indeed, in recent days... the intensity of mutual fire and exchange of uav strikes between israel and hizballah in lebanon , north of israel, has increased significantly and it is said that now is the time for israel to decide whether it is ready to step up the fighting against hizbollah and push this danger from the borders or, will feel that israel does not have

enough determination and enough means, which will mean that hezbollah will increase the pressure, because that is how it works in the middle east, so israel is really on the verge of a major war by hezbollah, but i still still it seems that right now its probability is not high, and it seems to me that despite the increase. the intensity of hostilities, they still remain, as they say in israel, well below the threshold of escalation, after which the war becomes irreversible, it seems to me that, actually , it has not been calm there for the last 8 months, and several hundred hizbollah fighters have already been eliminated, and the israel defense forces daily strikes the positions of hizbullah militants. currently, international players, including

the united states and the european union, do all to put pressure on the lebanese government to take some action and put pressure on the hizballah to prevent a major war in the region, but i think the more important factor here is the period that the islamic republic of iran is currently going through, from which hizballah is politically . financially and militarily depends entirely and completely, and the islamic republic of iran is not currently in the political period to start a new wave of escalation, it has to go through this transition period of power change, so in the next few months i do not expect iran to allow or will order khizbol to start more active fighting.

to israel that will lead to a really big war in the north. thank you vyacheslav likhachev, historian, political scientist, researcher, member of the expert council of the center for civil liberties in israel, and now from the middle east to latin america with oleksiy otkydych, specialist in latin american issues, adastra center. congratulations, mr. oleksiy. good day. well, let's start with the news of the last few days. president argentirachavier. miley will not be present at the peace summit in switzerland, he refused both a meeting with the president of ukraine volodymyr zelenskyi and a meeting with the president of france emmanuel macron, his european tour was significantly shortened. well, until recently we considered mr. miley one of the most important supporters of ukraine in latin america, the president of ukraine volodymyr zelenskyi flew to his inauguration, despite all, i would say, the amazing composition of the participants of this ceremony, such far-right politicians. who appeared there in the company of

viktor orban, let's say, other supporters donald trump, and now javier millay does not even want to be present at the peace summit that is taking place, this is the game. a big role is played by several factors at once, firstly, in general, if , what president miley demonstrated, his foreign policy is quite, i would say, emotional, that is, he often makes statements or steps, visits, which are conditioned if his sub' objective desire, his subjective preferences, etc., i don't think that his warm meeting with zelensky there was so, you know, contrived and momentary, he simply liked zelensky there, they there they embraced s... everything is fine, no, secondly, he has a lot of internal challenges, and it is obvious that certain leaders, especially in latin america, especially in africa, that is, in those countries, yes, that are not so involved in the european context, who are not so involved in our invasion of our war there, they pay attention first of all to internal domestic

factors, and then they already think about foreign policy, but in fact also for the expert environment, i am sure for the ministry of foreign affairs there and for many, in general, this refusal from point of view promilei, this is a surprise, because the relations between the leaders were developing quite actively, quite well, there were coordination talks as well, yes there at the level of the foreign ministry, there the ambassador and so on, that is, everything logically led to the fact that he should go, here for certain reasons , which are known, well, except to him personally, to his closest circle, he refuses, and it is actually extremely difficult to analyze why, because everything went quite logically, well, that is, in fact. it cannot be assumed that there the president of argentina could take into account any of his special contacts there with moscow or beijing, he refused to join dobrics, right? yes 100% that it is not under the pressure of the russians there or not under the pressure, for example, of china, we know that countries,

for example, colombia, peru, ecuador, they will be present at a certain level at the peace summit, and at the same time these countries have if the most... leaders who are the most, let's say, positive towards, much more than miley, positive towards the russians, towards the chinese, and so, no, we cannot assess that miley's refusal was caused some external pressure. now to another latin american country, where there is also a change of power, president miley recently came to power, unexpectedly, in mexico, you can say, this is the kind of change of power that speaks of... the continuation of the course that has been associated with the president of this country in recent years lópez obrador, such a charismatic politician, a long-time leader of the opposition, who came to power, but the new president, claudia sheenbaum, is considered a person who will be the heir, so to speak

, of her political teacher, or not there will be, does it not happen in mexico that there is a direct heir? in fact, this is one of the rather long political traditions. of mexico, that in mexico the power of the president is quite strong, the presidential term lasts six years, and even a so-called term arose, it is very difficult to explain from the point of view of linguistic etymology, but such an heir, yes, as conventionally they appointed an heir there in russia, in mexico there are many presidents were also shown the heir, they said, this is the person i want to see as the next president. in the case of claudia scheinbaum v basically that's what happened. and we can see that in the elections she basically defeated not only one opposition party there, but the three largest opposition parties in general opposed her, which united in one block, in one coalition, and these are the parties that used to fight among themselves and competed with each other, i.e.

morena's presidential party, first lópez aberdora, now claudia schönbaun, she managed, firstly, to win the elections back in 2018, now the 2024 elections and in fact 12 years in the history of mexico will pass under the flags of this party, which was able to wrest power from a different political class in mexico, which is left-wing, which is right-wing, well, center-left, let's say, and what can the politics be, what changes can you expect, are there any changes in politics that will distinguish claudia schönbau from lópez obrador, in particular in foreign policy in... relations with america, attitude to russia's conflict with ukraine? i don't think we will see any radical change in foreign policy. claudia scheinbaun quite a longtime, let's say, associate of lopez abrador, she supported him in the presidential campaign of 2006, 2012, that is, they

have been cooperating for quite a long time, they are in the same team, they rotate, let's say, in the same circle, she shares his views, in principle , as such a social leader. firstly, claudy schoenbeim showed herself during the student protests of 1987 against the neoliberal so -called reforms, and in latin america the neoliberal reforms of the late 1980s and early 1990s are perceived as imposed by the west, by the united states, reforms aimed at a new round of colonial consolidation there. despite the fact that these statements are not true, despite the fact that these reforms were aimed at really reforming the economies, latin american countries and improving the standard of living, they have the most negative trail behind them, and this is what the young claudia shinbaem, if has mastered what she fought against, and therefore to say that she... will somehow radically change foreign policy, well, it turns out to be unlikely, because yes,

politicians are evolving and zelensky in 2019 this is not the zelensky of 2022, but nevertheless , some basic principles remain the same, and in the case of claudia schönbaun, i do not see any, let's say, grounds for her drastic change, under the current conjuncture, let's say, both international and regional, and actually internal mexico. well, it also happened in mexico many times, remember, when a person appeared from the same institutional revolutionary party that ruled mexico there for almost two centuries, he was considered such an obvious representative of the establishment, the heir of the previous one president, and then once and for all, the entire policy changed by 180°, and no one could have predicted this at the time of the election. i will not say that mexico has such a large, let's say, selection of similar examples. argentina with the milieu is a much more vivid example yes in this respect yes but it has always been like that there, i would not agree with this

statement completely because usually the parties if the left variety in mexico have always been more yes so isolationist, skeptical of the united states, parties of the right, she, let's say, wins her place, yes, hers niche in the united states and their relations are developing quite actively, they managed to more or less manage all the migration there. moments, if the republicans take over, yes, there's a congress, or trump comes into power, or another republican candidate, then all these things that worsened relations between mexico and the states there 5-7 years ago, they can resurface, and obviously , that the democrats, there is joe biden at the moment for mexico, will probably be a more mild option for the development of relations. and tell me the election of a woman as president of mexico is a political revolution or a continuation of some such trends. we all followed the last years and decades there, but claudia schanbaum, she was the first woman to head the capital of the country, it was also

completely unexpected that this could happen for such a conservative country, everything has changed, you can say so, yes, it a trend that has been going on for quite a long time, women are gradually occupying higher and higher positions, ministerial positions, presidential positions, in peru we have the example of dina buluarta, we have examples of other women, yes there in management positions. there are ministers of the interior, there are ministers of foreign affairs, in different countries, they are sometimes in power for a short time, but if this is a trend that can no longer be overcome, and as we have seen, the main candidates who fought among themselves in mexico were two women, it was claudia schönbaun and it was shuchitel gálvez, from different political parties with different backgrounds, but nevertheless two women competed anyway, so if regardless of the results of the election it would still be the same... but mexico led by a woman, what actually happened? in principle, it can be said that despite the,

as he said, decoration of a stable political process, mexican statehood itself is under serious threat all the time. i remember that one of the famous women who led one of the cities in mexico, she was killed literally the next day after the election, and it was alfredo. cabrero seems, right? the mayor of the city, coyuca de benitez, a candidate for the position of mayor, and after that the mayor of the city of kociha yalanda sanchez, this is literally news the last few days, it's may 29, june 4, and it was said that this yolanda sanchez was constantly tried to blackmail her, kept her under the protection of the cartels when she visited her in a neighboring state, how can democracy be considered established when city mayors

can be held at gunpoint , and then after a certain time there in a year to kill? it is a characteristic of latin america that we see not only in mexico, that it is local elections, local governors or mayors, they become targets for such cases, mexico, especially the northern states of mexico. in general, it is a separate microcosm with established rules, there are cartels, criminal groups that compete with each other, we saw a similar situation, for example, in ecuador, when the city. the largest port of ecuador, one of the largest port cities in general in latin america on the pacific ocean, several attempts were made there and several candidates for the mayor of the city of goaquil were killed, that is, the situation is somewhat similar. on the other hand, if we look at the number of murders in mexico per 100,00 population in the last 5 years, it steadily decreases from 27 in

2019 to 23, and now the last figures are for 2023 . that is, despite all the warnings, all the same, mexico remains a fairly effective state, it is actively developing economically, it, as i said, is very closely entering the north american market, and therefore it is impossible to say that mexico is gradually rolling towards some kind of fail state. let's see what the results will be during claudia's presidency, but from the point of view of security, from the point of view of all the influences, yes there of latin american drug traffic on mexican politics, they now play a much smaller role than they did there 10 years ago, because they first flowed into central america in the mid-2010s, and then went to the south and are currently concentrated in ecuador, so for mexico we have now a relatively favorable conjuncture. can mexico become an alternative to china for the united states of america? i mean, exactly as an economic alternative, do you have such

opportunities? well, we understand that there is a country with a population of 130 million. and obviously difficult will compete with china, which has a population of more than a billion, but in those nuances, in those niches, in those productions of supply chains in some technological sectors, so it can occupy a whole and it will do it successfully, because what if it in in the interests of mexico, it is in the interests of the united states for the time being, and unless there is some fundamental change in relations between the countries as a result of, for example, an election in the united states. if that's exactly what will happen, the united states sees mexico as that country, that neighbor, that partner that in fact, it can take over the share of production and the share of supplies that the united states wants to take out of china and place somewhere, and mexico is excellent in this regard, there is education there, there is a large population, a young population, logistically it is close, and so

on and so on. well, after we see left-wing presidents in mexico as well. and this trend continues in argentina and brazil, we can say that there is a certain trend in colombia, by the way, where this has not happened for many decades in a row, we can to say that there is such a tendency to water the continent, well, with the exception of argentina, the truth is that everything is the opposite, what is interesting is that latin america is now approaching the end of the so -called second pink wave, that is, this pink wave began with the elections in mexico... in 2018 , then a series of elections were held there in the 19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd years, and in most countries presidents of the left variety were indeed elected, the exceptions were ecuador, and elections were held in ecuador twice during this period, there was right-wing candidate, there was now a centrist candidate, argentina, she really is broke out of this trend with mr. miley, and

mexico, which started the cycle of this left wave, now seems to have finished it. re-election of a left-wing president, we will see how much this would happen in other countries, because in colombia gustavo petro is the first left-wing president there in 100 years, and this is the exception, not the rule, in brazil the competition was very tight, in peru, the competition between castillo, who would join this left wave, the red wave, and keika fujimori, who represented the right political spectrum, amounted to 44 thousand votes, that's 0.8% 15%, if i remember correctly, that is, the gaps were minimal, and if mexico took over the left-wing president for the continuation of this wave, let's look at the rest of ukraine, at least after two or three elections it will be possible to say about the continuation of this trend in the region, or on the contrary, the fragmentation and scattering of the political balance in latin america, some countries will be right, others will be left, and

all this will be like this, you know, an interesting mosaic. well, by the way, i understand that we have always believed that the right is more in latin america. tend to support ukraine than left-wing politicians, but the behavior of mr. miley makes me wonder about the correctness of such a definition? you are absolutely right, because we have the example of gabriel borych, who is considered a rather left-wing president, he is the president of chile, and he at one time formed the union of the communist party of chile, yes, which sounds quite specific for ukraine, and at the same time, president borych, if, he demonstrates endurance. in their support for ukraine, including voting at the un, statements in support of ukraine, meetings and so on telephone conversations with the president at the level of the heads of the foreign ministry, deputy heads of the foreign ministry, condemnations. cuba, the condemnation of venezuela, nicaragua, that is, his example demonstrates that no, if the left does not mean anti-ukrainian or pro-ukrainian, the right, as

miley has demonstrated, is also not automatically super pro-ukrainian or anti-ukrainian, everywhere has its own specificity, if, for example , president gustavo petro from colombia will go to the peace summit, it will also be a certain surprise, because he and his background should in theory be so more pro-russian, but we... see, well, that relations with colombia are gradually warming, president lula, on the contrary, is very cold there, they have a certain personal contact with president zelensky, not at the best, let's say, level, but therefore, everything is specific to kryna, very different from kryna. thank you, thank you, mr. oleksiy. oleksiy atkidych, a specialist in latin american issues at the adastra center, was in touch with us, we talked with him about what is happening in... in latin america, in the relations between ukraine, the countries of this important region for the world, now we will break for a few minutes, but you stay with us, there is still an important topic ahead.

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have become like-minded to many, as well as distinguished guests of the studio, events of the day in two hours, vasyl zima's big broadcast, a project for smart people and those who don't care, in the evening for espresso. see this week in the collaborators program. putin's army, like russia? recruits children in the occupied territories. in the skadovsky district , a movement is opening. but as a former university teacher, she forms squads of young misanthropists. we appeal to all young soldiers of russia. on tuesday , june 11 at 5:45 p.m., watch the collaborators program with olena koninenko on the espresso tv channel. we continue the politclub program on the espressa channel. vitaly portnikov is with you. today is quite an important

event, which in principle continues already. several days in a row, but it is coming to an end, in fact, in the next 15-20 minutes we will learn about the e-exit pools of the elections to the european parliament, which, as you understand, were elected precisely on these three days, friday, saturday and sunday, many they say that in one way or another there are deputies working in the european parliament who cannot independently... determine the future of europe, the functions of the european parliament are quite limited, and by and large the europeans themselves decided that they will be limited, at one time there was a constitution of the united europe, proposed commission headed by the former president of the french republic valéry jascardestin, it was rejected, in particular in the referendum in ireland, it was not voted for by the residents of the eu countries themselves, but at the same time it can be said that, despite

such limited powers. elections to the european parliament are always perceived as a certain trend, the trend of the development of political life in europe, and despite the fact that there are no special surprises, it is clear that the center-right will be the winners of these elections, this is already visible even from those the results provided by individual countries, even if we understand that this is in many respects a protest vote, at the same time it is a trend, a trend that will show itself in... the next national elections, and that is why so much attention is drawn to the elections to the european parliament all european leaders, and that is why the next election campaigns are organized based on the results of these elections, so it is clear who can really lose, who can really win, well, i will just show you a real exit poll in germany, which is quite a serious one, i would say a sign that the government may change in this country at

the next parliamentary elections. because the opposition bloc of the christian democratic union and the christian social union, you remember that the representative of this bloc, angela merkel , was the chancellor of germany for many years, it receives 30% of the votes in the elections to the european parliament, while the social democrats, who today lead the german ori only 14%, rather disappointing results in germany... which received only 12% of voters, and in the free democrats, which received only five percent of the voters, but the party has an alternative for germany, whose representatives have just been excluded from the composition of even the far-right faction in the european parliament itself, where the dominant force is the party of marine le pen, the french party of the far right, they have as much as 16% of the vote , that is, it

will be very serious. representation, they significantly improved their representation in the european parliament, in the previous elections to the european parliament, they were green, in fact the favorites of these elections, they had the second place, this is quite a serious moment, in austria has an even more serious moment, the leadership of the far-right austrian freedom party, which many, after it became known about the readiness of its leader at that time to collaborate with moscow, considered in march, however, this political trumpet not only came to life, but also is preparing to come to power, because the austrian freedom party received 27% of the votes in the exit polls, so it will have two times more deputies in the european parliament than it was so far, the austrian people's party has everything 23%, and the social democrats have 23% of the vote

, so it can happen. that at the next parliamentary elections in austria.