there was not only one opposition party there, it was opposed by the three largest opposition parties in general, which united in one bloc, in one coalition, and these are the parties that used to fight and compete with each other, i.e. moren's presidential party, first lópez oberdora, now claudia schönbaun, she managed to win the elections back in 2018, now the 2024 elections, and in fact 12 years of mexican history. under the banner of this party, which was able to wrest power from a completely different political class in mexico, which is the left orientation, that of the right orientation, well , center-left, let's say so. and what can the policy be, what changes can you expect, there are some policy changes that will differentiate claudia schoenbau from lópez abrador, particularly in foreign policy, in relations with america, in the attitude to the russian conflict. with ukraine, i don't think

we will see any radical change in foreign policy. claudia schönbaun is quite a long-time, let's say, associate of lópez abrador, she supported him in the presidential campaign of 2006, 2012, that is, they are already quite they have been cooperating for a long time, they are in the same team, they rotate, let's say, in the same circle, she shares his views, in principle, as such a social leader, claudio shunbaem first showed herself during the student protests of 1987. against the neoliberal so-called reforms, and in latin america the neoliberal reforms of the late 1980s and early 1990s are perceived as imposed by the west, the united states, reforms aimed at a new round of colonial consolidation there, despite the fact that it was these statements are not true, despite the fact that these reforms had for the purpose of really reforming the economies of latin american countries and improving the standard of living, they have the most... negative

trail behind them, and this is what the young claudio shinbaum, if she learned what she was fighting against, and therefore to say that she would somehow radically change foreign policy, well, it seems unlikely, because yes, politicians evolve and zelensky of 2019 is not zelensky of 2022, but nevertheless some basic principles remain the same, and in the case of claudia schönbaun, i don't see any, say... so grounds for her a sharp change in the current conjuncture, say, both international, and regional, and actually intra-mexico. well, it was the same in mexico many times, remember, when a person appeared from the same institutional revolutionary party that ruled mexico there for almost two centuries, was considered such an obvious representative of the establishment, the heir of the previous president, and then once and for all politics changed by 180° and no one could'. see

this at election time? i won't say that mexico has such a large, let's say, a selection of similar examples, argentina with the milieu is a much more striking example, yes in this regard, yes, but there it has always been like that, i would not agree with the statement completely, because usually the parties, if of the left variety in mexico, have always been more and so isolationist, skeptical of the united states, parties of the legal variety, well , for example there: henrique peñaneta or vicente fox, they had better relations with the united states, that is, this is the thing, the parameter that distinguishes mexican politics over the last 20-30 years stable and will claudia shambaum also expect a change of power in the united states, or would it be better for the president of new mexico that joe biden stay in the white house, which is what mexico needs in this situation? well, we see that and... and andrés manuel lópez

obrador behaved, as if, he had a relatively good relationship with biden, i think that mexis has a generally more favorable perception of the democrats in power, let's see, they will be obvious that with a big attention to treat the united states, and at the same time mexico is actively displacing china gradually from the trade balance of the united states, that is, mexico, it is, so to speak, winning its place, yes, its niche in the united states, and their relations are developing quite actively. if they would manage more or less to manage all the migration issues there, if the republicans take over the congress or trump comes to power or another candidate from the republican party, then all these things that worsened relations between mexico and the states there 5-7 years ago, they can pop up again, and it's obvious that the democrats are joe there at the moment, for mexico, biden will probably be more of a soft option for the development of relations. and tell me about the choice of a woman. president of mexico, is this

a political revolution or a continuation of some such trends that we have all been following there for the past years and decades, but claudia schoenbaum, the first woman to head the country's capital, was also completely unexpected. what can it be for such a conservative country, everything has changed, one might say? yes, this is a trend that has been going on for quite some time now, gradually women are occupying higher and higher positions, ministerial positions, presidential positions, in peru, we have the example of dina buluarta, we have examples of other women, yes there in leadership positions, there are ministers of the interior, these are ministers of foreign affairs, in different countries, they sometimes they are in power for a short time, but if this... a trend that cannot be overcome anymore, and as we have seen, the main candidates who fought each other in mexico were two women, it was claudia schönbaun and it was shuchitel gálvez, from different political parties with different background, but nevertheless , two women were still competing, so if, regardless of

the election results, mexico would still be led by a woman, which actually happened, and you can say, in principle, that despite such a... i would say, scenery a stable political process, mexican statehood itself, it is under serious threat all the time, i remember one of the famous women who headed one of the cities in mexico, she was killed literally the day after the election, and it was alfredo cabrero, i think yes, mayor koyuka benitez, candidate for the position. the mayor, and after that the mayor of the city of kotsiha , ayulanda sanchez, this is literally the news of the last days, it was may 29, june 4, and it was said that this yolanda sanchez was constantly tried to blackmail her, kept under

the protection of the cartels, when she visited a neighboring state, to what extent can democracy be considered established, when the mayors of the city can... hold a gun at the muzzle, and then kill them after a certain time there in a year? this is a characteristic of latin america that we see not only in mexico, that is local elections, local governors or mayors, they become targets for such cases, mexico, especially the northern states of mexico, is generally a separate microcosm with its own rules, there are cartels, criminal groups that compete with each other. we saw a similar situation, for example, in ecuador, when the city of guayaquil, the largest port in ecuador, one of the largest port cities in latin america on the pacific ocean, several attempts were made there and several candidates for mayor of the city of guayaquil were killed, that is, the situation is somewhat similar . with

on the other hand, if we look at the number of murders in mexico per 1000 population from the last 5 years, it has steadily decreased from 27 in 2019 to 23. here are the latest figures for 2023, that is, despite all the caveats, mexico still remains a fairly effective state, it is actively developing economically, it, as i said, is very closely entering the north american market, and therefore it can be said that mexico is rolling there gradually it is not possible to some fail steate. let's see what the results will be over time claudia's presidency, but from the point of view of security, from the point of view of all these influences. yes, there are drug flows from latin america to mexican politics, they now play a much smaller role than there 10 years ago, because they first flowed into central america in the mid-2010s, and then went to the south and are currently concentrated in ecuador, so for in mexico, we now have

a relatively favorable conjuncture. can mexico become an alternative to china for the united states of america? i mean precisely the economic alternative, you have such opportunities? well, we are. we understand that a country with a population of 130 million will obviously find it difficult to compete with china, which has a population of more than a billion, but in those nuances, in those niches, in those productions of supply chains in some technological sectors, it can occupy a more valuable and she will do it successfully, because if it is in the interests of mexico, it is in the interests of the united states for the time being, and unless some fundamental change takes place. relations between countries as a result of, for example, elections in the united states the united states, that is exactly what will happen, the united states views mexico as that country, that neighbor, that partner that can actually take over that share of production and that share of supplies that the united states wants, if it were to be taken out of

china and placed somewhere , and mexico is great in this regard, there is education there, there is a large population, a young population, logistically it is close, and so on and so forth, well... after we see left-wing presidents in mexico as well, and this trend continues both in argentina and in brazil, we can say that there is a certain trend, and in colombia, by the way. where this has not happened for many decades in a row, we can say that there is such a trend of watering the continent, well, with the exception of argentina, however, everything is the opposite there, which is interesting, now latin america, it is approaching the end of the so-called second pink wave, that is, this pink the wave started with the 2018 election in mexico, then there were a series of elections there in 19, 20, 21, 22, and most countries did elect... left-wing presidents species, the exceptions were ecuador, and there were elections in

ecuador twice during this period, there was a right-wing candidate, there was now a centrist candidate, argentina, it really broke out of this trend with mr. miley, and mexico, as it were, which started the cycle of the left of this wave, now its if it ends with the re-election of a left-wing president, we will see how much this would happen in other countries, because in colombia, gustavo petro is... a left-wing president has been elected there for 100 years, and this is the exception, not the rule, in brazil the competition was very tight in peru, the competition between castillo, who would have joined this left wave, the red wave, and keika fujimori, who represented the right political spectrum, amounted to 44 thousand votes, that's 0.18%, if i remember correctly, that is, the gaps were minimal, and if mexico took over the leftist president to continue this. let's look at the rest of ukraine, at least after two or three elections it will be possible to say about the continuation of this trend in the region, or

on the contrary the fragmentation and dispersal of the political balance in latin america, some countries will be right, others will be left, and all this will be such, you know, an interesting mosaic. by the way, i understand that we have always believed that the right-wing in latin america is more inclined to support ukraine than left-wing politicians, but mr. miley's behavior makes me think about rights. such a definition, you are absolutely right, because we have the example of gabriel borych, who is considered a rather left-wing president, he is the president of chile, and he at one time formed the union-communist party of chile, yes, which sounds quite specific for ukraine, and at the same time president borych, as it were, he demonstrates tenacity in his support for ukraine, this includes voting in the un, statements in support of ukraine, meetings or telephone conversations with the president at the level of the heads of the foreign ministry, deputy heads of the foreign ministry, condemnation of cuba, condemnation of venezuela,

nicaragua, that is, his example demonstrates , that no, if the left does not mean anti-ukrainian or pro-ukrainian, the right, as demonstrated by miley, is not automatically super pro-ukrainian or anti-ukrainian either, everywhere has its own specificity, if, for example, president gustavo petro from colombia will go to the peace summit, it will also be a certain surprise, because he with his background... in theory, he should be more pro-russian, but we see, well, that relations with colombia are gradually warming, president lula, he is the opposite , yes , it is very cold there, they have a certain personal contact with president zelenskyi, not at the best, let’s say, level, eh, so everything is specific from country to country, it is very different from country to country, thank you, thank you, mr. oleksii, oleksii atkidych, specialist in issues of latin america, the center of adastra in our country. was in connection, we talked with him about what is happening in latin america, in

the relations between ukraine and the countries of this region, which is quite important for the world. now we will break for a few minutes, but you stay with us, there is an important topic ahead. verdict with serhiy rudenko, from now on in a new, two-hour format. even more analytics, even more important topics, even more top guests: foreign experts, inclusion from abroad, about ukraine, the world. society, and also feedback, you can express your opinion on the bad day with help phone survey, turn on and turn on, verdict with serhiy rudenko, every weekday from 8 to 10 pm at espresso. we continue the politclub program on teles, vitaly portnikov is with you. today is quite an important event, which, in principle, prod. it has been several days in a row, but it is coming to an end, in fact, in the next 15-20 minutes we

will learn about the exit pools of the elections to the european parliament, which, as you understand, were elected on these three days, friday, saturday and sunday, there is a lot of talk about what is happening in the european parliament otherwise, deputies work who cannot... independently determine the future of europe, the functions of the european parliament are quite limited, and by and large the europeans themselves have decided that they will be limited, at one time there was a constitution of the united europe, a proposed commission on... with the former president of the french of the republic by valery jaskardesten, it was rejected, in particular in the referendum in ireland, the residents of the eu countries themselves did not vote for it, but at the same time it can be said that despite such limited powers, the elections to of the european parliament is always perceived as a certain trend, the trend of the development of political

life in europe, and despite the fact that there are no special surprises, it is clear that the center-right will be... with the winners of these elections, it is already visible, even from the results provided by individual countries. even if we understand that this is in many respects a protest vote, at the same time it is a trend, a trend that will show itself in the next national elections, which is why so much attention is drawn to the elections to the european parliament all the european leaders, and therefore, based on the results of these elections , the following... election campaigns are organized, so it is clear who can really lose, who can really win, well, i will just show you the real exit poll in germany, which is quite serious, i b said, a sign that the government may change in this country at the next parliamentary elections, because the opposition bloc of the christian democratic union and the christian

social union, remember that the representative of this bloc, angela merkel, was long-term chancellor of germany, he receives 30% of the vote in the elections to the european parliament, while the social democrats, who today lead the german government, only 14%, the results of the german greens, which received only 12% of the voters, are also quite disappointing. and the free democrats, who received only five percent of the voters, but the party has an alternative for germany. representatives of which have just been excluded from the composition of even the far-right faction in the european parliament itself, where the party is the dominant force marine le pen, the french far-right party, they have as much as 16% of the vote, that is, it will be a very serious representation, they significantly improved their representation in the european parliament in the previous elections to

the european parliament, they were green, in fact the favorites of these. they had the second place, this is quite a serious moment, in austria an even more serious moment, the leadership of the far-right austrian freedom party, which many, after it became known about the readiness of its leader at the time to cooperate with moscow, was generally considered politically dead. however, this political trumpet is not only revived, but is also preparing to come to power, because the austrian freedom party received 27% of the vote... according to the exit polls, so it will have twice as many deputies in the european parliament. than it was until now. the austrian people's party has only 23%, and the social democrats 23% of the vote . thus it may happen that in the next parliamentary elections in austria, the austrian freedom party, this victory in

the european elections, this is its first victory in any national elections country, she can. apply for the post of federal chancellor, that is, the same phenomenon that we have already seen in the netherlands will take place, although the leader of the far right, geert wilders, had to give up the position of prime minister in order to form a ruling coalition in which his party could be, be like that, i would say serious, but one way or another we can say that this story will be... quite serious for the future of those european elections that can be seen now in the coming months, and of course the european parliament itself will change, but we are now about we will talk about all this in detail in just a minute. greetings, this is svoboda live on radio

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for intelligent and caring people, in the evening at espresso. we continue our program and welcome our guest in the studio, diplomat, minister of foreign affairs of ukraine in 2014-2019, pavlo klimkin. congratulations, mr. vitaly, well, these elections will really change the faces of europe we are talking about, it is unlikely that they can push, but they will probably change, politics is very inertial, will there be a right wave, for sure it will, will it absorb europe, so far it does not look like that, we will know the results with you tomorrow, exit - field, here... literally how many minutes in 10, yes, i think that it is 10 minutes, we can return it at the end of the conversation, but if we are serious, the question is, to what extent is today's europe able

to understand that it is still europe 20 -th century, not the 21st, maybe already the 19th , taking into account the fact that in europe there are borders, this and there are no established borders, they will probably be offended if he goes somewhere to the vienna congress, well... plus whether there will be a single right-wing faction, and it depends on the agreements and even the personal egos of miloni and lipen, if there is, it will have a profound effect on the appointment in the european commissions and other things, plus, of course, the distribution of balances in the eurocouncil, where orban will be pushed into which corner or not, that is, yes, of course, on the politics of elections. will have a very strong influence, by the way, the new commission will be just a couple of days before the american elections, formal, 1 november, and now the european parliament will start

the hearing of the commissioners, and it will be an interesting process when someone can come up with more interesting proposals, well, like what macron likes to repeat once every 5-7 years, most of his proposals are like water in the sand, but some still sounding and... working, i see that there are several leaders today who are ready to go beyond standard european political correctness, or they will, we will see literally in a couple of months. and tell me, if you turn to the events, which will be closer than understanding that how the european parliament will function, and the peace summit in switzerland. naski, what is the current account of this diplomatic, i would say, duel between the west and china, ukraine? china and russia, if this is a diplomatic duel, well, i mean, well, if the president of ukraine loudly accuses china of undermining the summit, why is it a duel? and for the chinese

, in fact, it may be unpleasant, but not critical. i think, by the way, with brazilians, it goes deeper because the latin american mentality, it's like that, the chinese they... they're in eternity, they see everything is strategic, but we need to work with the non-western world, it is becoming more and more difficult, some people start thinking only about themselves, but for most countries that mean something in the past, to them that the victory of russia, something that does not fit, that our victory , something that does not fit, but the question is that this is a chinese-brazilian plan, not ours. there is no plan, we just stop somewhere, and then we start, we start talking, and how do we start talking, and how will it turn out, how will it go, who

guarantees what, who guarantees that there will be no fall and general mentality about military aid, but the chinese don't really care, but not critical, the chinese want russia to be tied to them. perspective, they believe that personal relations are working now, but whether they will work in 10 years, who knows who will be the leaders of china and russia, so the logic of the chinese is very simple: bind russia in any way, at least for the nearest 40 -50 years, when they believe that the world will be defined by the strategic rivalry between the united states and china, and they will follow this path to the end, by the way, the brazilians too, but brazilians have a lot more. different things in my head, well, how many 380 billion assets do they have abroad, if i'm not mistaken, now in a couple of days there will be a decision,

well, will it be... there will be legal formalities immediately or not, let's see if it will be political the decision to use the profits from russian assets, and already now i hear from the arabs, from the brazilians, from the chinese, and what will happen to our assets, i tell them, well, you are not going to attack uruguay there tomorrow, they say no-no- no, but maybe we will too you know, that is, in fact, these things, which for us are on the one hand. very cool, they affect the summit as well, so the logic of this conference in switzerland is actually to hold as much as possible in today's reality, and it's actually super difficult, phenomenally difficult, at least part of the event is not in good shape, but, in my opinion, and the chinese and the saudis, they left the summit not so much because of some anti-ukrainian sentiment, they don't have anything so anti-ukrainian or completely

pro-russian. they have a logic that they are will take over. tamerdaan once told everyone that i will be the best mediator, focus on me, come to istanbul, which we saw, and now the saudis say, now we will rather be with the support of the chinese next, that is, the struggle for the place of switzerland is so global, it is possible to say, this is a struggle for the place of the saudis, as part and connecting such a link between for'. let's not go west, remember, austria was once during the cold war and vienna was such a peculiar link, but now there is a struggle between qatar and the saudis for who will be the link between the west and not the west, and i think the saudis have a chance, and the chances are actually serious, because they're behind them, they're backed by the chinese, and they have oil, they can actually influence

oil prices, in qatar. gas is a good story, and being middlemen is also a good story, but the saudis still have a bigger scale. if the saudis increase production, they can simply collapse oil prices, and this is actually not a bad leverage on russia either, but russia is not particularly sweaty about gas. the chinese are keeping her in the dark there, and gazprom, by the way, last year showed for the first time... in 1999, a negative balance, so gas is an important story, and qatar with its tankers is also cool, but the saudis, in my opinion, are number one in today's history , and they want to play out this story according to the notes, and how can it be played out, after the swiss peace summit ends, they will make, well, in principle , a decision that will not be effective, though, well, the decision will rather fly. declarative,

i.e. it will record that there is an order of positions, there is a desire to move forward, that is, in my opinion, the result of this summit is the summit itself, and not some documents that will be signed, approved or something like that, that is, the very fact of the summit and the fact that it is possible to keep this format, the event is not an event, this in my opinion, there is much more important than the decisions that... can be made there, well, what will happen next? saudi arabia will try to hold its own conference, or the west will discuss it with it, of course, saudi arabia will be allowed, i emphasize the verb will be allowed to hold this conference, if the europeans will agree to this, if the chinese agree, and if they do not object to the americans in principle, then russia will already

be rammed and... and what is russia for? and russia, in my opinion, in today's logic, is ready to wage war in the future, but understands that it is not in its interests. well, look at what is happening to the economy, look at how it is being depleted, look at how it is being cut off, and the americans are not just like that, now, and the europeans are helping them, they have come, the reddest red lines, how can you hit me. american weapons, albeit with restrictions, with agreements there, not according to the kremlin, yes, well , everything is actually more complicated there, but how did biden deliberately throw this phrase at me so as not to get nervous there, there were already such signs of hysteria there, you see that putin, well , first of all, he says, we may think about changing the nuclear doctrine there, then training, but he with...