day, and the west kept saying: "let's be careful not to allow a serious escalation." now there is no such thing. this, by the way, started two years later. two years of the great war have ended, and french president emmanuel macron, the first, in fact, among western leaders, said that he wants russia to live in a situation of strategic uncertainty, because until that moment the west itself lived in a situation of strategic uncertainty. and now we can say that they have all changed roles. now in the situation. russia lives largely due to economic uncertainty also, the russians do not know what will be used against them next, whether some western missiles and bombs will fall on their heads, whether foreign troops will appear in ukraine, probably not, but again, what is no, when they could say no for sure before about western weapons, it's true, if you asked your generals, they might hit us with some western missiles, but no. well, they will be

afraid of each other, that there is nothing to even think about, it turned out that there is something, and this happened because the west stopped being afraid of russia, so i don't think that he was afraid, i i think that he believed that the russians would come to understand that they cannot fulfill their goals, that these goals that putin has set for himself regarding the absorption of ukraine, they are not achievable, and therefore it is necessary to agree on some positions that... and will record this fact, let's put it this way, and putin is not ready to understand it, well, if he is not ready to understand it, he will be made to understand it by various means, from economic to military, that's the whole story for you, and china, we see that here gradually , very carefully, in very small steps, yet the united states of america, not europe, but the united states of america, not the european union, is trying. to china, that is, with such

small microsteps, such small, small movements, to send messages that, well, listen, there is no need to help russia, china will react to this somehow, at least now we do not observe that there is such a reaction, it will mean , that the united states, perhaps allies of the united states of america, will increase this pressure on china, i think it is in the river. the same attitude towards moscow that you and i talked about, you understand when united states secretary of state anthony blinkin was in beijing, he publicly warned the president of the people's republic of china, xizen ping, that if chinese companies continue to do business with moscow, the united states will do what china is not doing, let china itself end cooperation of their companies with the russian federation. as far as i understand,

the american secretary of state was not heard, was not heard precisely from the point of view from which putin did not hear, does not hear, the west, the west will not dare, they will not be able to, it is not to their advantage, they will be careful, these are not exactly sanctions against china, as you understand, well yes, these are sanctions against chinese companies that cooperate with russia, but with russia it was also like that at first, of course, in the 14th year, 15th, 17 , even the 22nd, is a signal. by the way, if we read this g7 communique, there is a mention of cooperation between russia and china in the part where it talks about the war in ukraine, and it mentions the part where it talks about china, and by the way, there is another very important decision, this is the introduction of the european customs duty on chinese electric cars, a 38% duty was added to the 10% duty that existed until now, well, now imagine that you are xijin ping, what do you have to...

listen to how many billions of dollars are floating past you on the river, on the yangtze river , there is even, there is even a blow to companies that are residents of the european union, for example, germany, we know that in germany, er, what is dumb, that german car manufacturers are in china, that is, they have their factories, and there too, although not so significant, but the duty is also the same, and by the way, olaf scholz tried. do your best to oppose this decision, and it was his birthday, they sang happy birthday olaf to him there, everyone there stroked his bald head, everyone was very nice, but at the same time they absolutely did not agree with his proposals, to postpone this decision, and now, as you can see, he also has to block sanctions against russia in the european union, right now germany is blocking sanctions, not hungary, because she is again afraid that the introduction of new... sanctions may

hit her own business, but i sure that this resistance of germany will be overcome because we live in a completely new logic. if we talk about the peace summit. an event that is happening right now, and by the way, you can watch a live broadcast now in our half-window, speeches are being made from switzerland by the heads of various states, so the event is important, extremely important, and we have already identified it, but we understand very well that the peace summit will not lead to peace, well, i think that the terminology is important here, you see, why not call the security agreements, the agreement on security guarantees, because these are not security guarantees, they are agreements that provide that the states that sign them with ukraine will help ukraine in the event of future wars with the russian federation, and this is not bad, because it is better

than not helping, because we understand that he will continue to do so again, if we do not join nato, there will be many, they will be destructive, they will be brutal, and the more weapons and aid we have, the more chances that russia will localize these wars, or will not conduct them, because again russians do not attack the strong. the same is true of the peace summit, if it were to be called a support summit, maybe it would not cause conflicting emotions in anyone, it is absolutely obvious that the peace summit in switzerland cannot lead to peace, i think i explained in this program why the peace agreement of russia and ukraine is unattainable, and the idea of ​​peace, as a political solution, must be... discarded in one's own head for the next decades of the 21st century. there will be no peace between russia and ukraine. peace between russia and ukraine is unattainable. but, the greater will be the support of ukraine from the outside world, the more chance there is, firstly, of turning a high-intensity war into

a low-intensity war. and this means fewer victims in the following years. and that means less bombing, and that means less casualties, and that means a return to...more normality of life in the 20s and 30s of the 21st century, and secondly, it may mean an end to low- intensity warfare, of course, that no one likes the logic of freezing the conflict, but when we all come to the conclusion that freezing the conflict may be the only chance to survive for both ukraine and russia, in principle we can see that in the situation we are in, we can achieve our goals, but freezing can also be on different terms, you understand? the freeze in which we get security guarantees is not at all the freeze in which we don't get them, because what is the freeze conflict with security guarantees? ukraine is invited to nato, the security guarantee for these territories that we control at the moment, it is important that they be larger than now,

but that too, during the war no one can say that will take place in the future, here, but this basically means. that we are on the track to return our territories by political means, and we are part of the defense union, and our allies will also do everything to return these territories by political means, which means that the pressure on russia will continue even after this ceasefire, or there is another freeze conflict, that there is simply a cease fire and we will get nothing but these agreements, which i promise us that the next time you are attacked in half a year, or in a year, then we will give you weapons sooner, that is, it is a question of survival, because we understand that this is a war - this is a war that will give an answer to the question of whether there will be a ukrainian state or a russian state on the political map of the world in the coming years federation, will cover all its borders and begin to implement the soviet union 2:0 project.

that's all, a very simple thing, a thing that can turn into new millions of refugees and new hundreds of thousands of victims, this is also a reality, which means that the greater it is under... holding the world, the less russia will have a chance to freeze the conflict on its own terms, this is a very simple formula. 56 at this peace summit of heads of state, presidents, prime ministers, some of the heads according to the constitution of this country, determined, yes, we are now seeing the speech of president macron? this means that, in essence, i came... only those who consider themselves to be part of such a civilized world, the western world, yes, but if we are talking about a part of up to 30 representatives there, these are ministers of foreign affairs or of a lower category, to things, this too, which refers to the civilized world, there are

allies of the west in different regions of the world, we saw the president of kenya, i think he spoke second or third, or the president of argentina, or the head of ghana, they were the first. to say that now argentina is trying to relate itself to the civilized world, that's right, the civilized world is not geography, it's that, that is, here we are not really talking about the fact that everyone is there. to the west of ukraine, but less so, we talked about the fact that some of the representatives who are currently at the global peace summit may not agree, may not sign, such it is possible, that is, that is, after all, a certain number of countries, conditionally speaking, will be limited only to presence, but presence is support, from what documents will be signed there, nothing special, these documents do not mean anything in particular, they do not mean, of course, because for... what was important was not what will be signed there, but who will come there, russia is absolutely uninterested in the content of any

documents of the summit in switzerland, russia can only consider the fact that someone is present there as a fact of support for ukraine , because if ukraine organizes a peace summit, you go there too you come, and russia tells you not to go there, that it is not a summit, that it does not decide anything, that you do not need to go there, that zelensky is illegitimate, and you go there, then who will you support? of course, if you lower the level of presence, then you can bow to russia, as the presidents of brazil and south africa did, well, in general , the president of south africa was taken over today, i'm sorry, i don't really understand how he would come, even if he wanted to, he should at least become president again, and then go somewhere well, the current president. so far, well, he is already in effect, he was re-elected today for a second term, but why did i mention the president

of south africa, serilaphos, this is also an important point that we may not notice, but today the president of south africa, who you know, was re-elected always treated putin with more respect than western leaders, but he was re-elected in exchange for creating a government for... national unity with a party whose leader was in ukraine during the war, came on his own initiative and met, he came to lviv, i think he met with the head of the lviv regional administration, with the mayor of lviv andrii sadov, and he said that this was an unjust war, that russia occupied ukraine, that south africa should support ukraine more seriously, and this person was then the leader of the opposition, and now the logic of the government of national unity, of course. leads to the fact that the politics of south africa itself will begin to change, it just

needs to be realized towards a greater understanding of our vision of war, because cyril ramophosa, if he wants to sit in the chair of the president of the country, in the chair of the president of the country, he convinces that he wants, who does not want, they say, if you have already been the president, then he will take such points into account, and this will happen in many places, because the political himself the process, he dictates with... we are now saying that marine le pen can win the parliamentary elections in france, and the party is a national union, but earlier this would have been an accurate diagnosis of the fact that a pro-russian political force is winning, and now marine le pen makes pro-ukrainian statements, says that russia has carried out the occupation of ukrainian lands, he does not make such strong statements as president macron, but roughly the same statements that macron has been making for years. which were considered decisive at the time, which means that everyone realized that this

is such a path, that russia is on the directional side of history, and those who want to be with it are also outside this side and outside the possibility of civilized cooperation with the west, in the west after all concentrated most of the economic potential, here are these people who met with zelenskyi at the summit near brindisi. they are definitely the people who control their governments, most of the world's economy, despite such a large population in china, india, still most of the world's economy is the seven, not china, and for now, it will have to be reckoned with even those who have other political values ​​and priorities. we have to take a short break, a few minutes, and we'll... come back, we'll have one more block of vitaly portnikov's thoughts, so don't

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legal expertise program on the espresso tv channel. saturday political club, we are returning to the live broadcast, we still have a little more than 10 minutes to discuss another important topic that affects, including the life of the european union, and of course, our country. the elections in france were a consequence of the elections to the european parliament. françois macron dissolved the national parliament of france and announced that in the shortest possible time, that is, in three weeks , elections should be held for the parliament itself, this is quite an interesting thing, that in principle such a dissolution took place, because if i do not i am wrong, he is the third or fourth

in the modern history of the french republic. mr. vitaly, what can be expected from this, will the lipen party win, or will various other political forces, in particular the left, centrists, manage to unite in order to, at least, if not win the first place, then win a greater number of votes than than, there is no majority of the national union, one thing is that it is interesting that this decision of macron simply caused a real political explosion wherever it was possible. make it it feels like you know you pressed a button and the explosions started. this week has been as crazy for france as i don't think it has ever been in its political history, even when it was dissolved. that is, everyone is really trying to unite, and the leader of the republicans, eric ciotti, goes to the headquarters of the national

union, agrees with marine le pen and the leader of the party, george bardela, about a joint list of the right and the far right in the parliamentary elections. the next, same evening, eric suti is expelled from his own party the politburo of the republicans, the court reinstates him, he continues to discuss a joint list with marine lippen while the republican party continues to nominate its own candidates, and this is not the end, there is an ultra-ultra-right reconquista party that also entered parliament, the european, the leader of this party is eric zemur, and its vice-president is the niece of marin lipen, marion malyashal, who... also quarreled with her aunt on the basis of these political views. marion malishal, where to the headquarters of the apartment of marine lupin meets america

city, but this does not scare her, she agrees with marine le pen, george bardelo, who before the elections to the european parliament was the lover of another niece of marine le pen, you see what a big family, about a joint investment. and expels from the party the president of the reconquista, erik zimur, who on the same evening expels marion malishal from his party. marion continues to share seats with her aunt, while zimur offers his own candidates in all constituencies where a member of the national association will run, on the other hand, on the left flank, and it happens complete unification, of all forces, from the left, the moderates to the extreme left, and everyone says, see how the left is, brave, they united without any problems, uh, and they are socialists to... unite with unruly france, jean-luc mélenchon, one of the most popular left-wing politicians in europe, the ultra-left politicians of europe. and then suddenly

today it turns out that jean-luc milanchon, taking advantage of this situation, executed from the lists of his own party people who were in internal opposition to him, motivated by the fact that these seats should be given to socialists and others, but left one of his closest associates on the list, who has no way out. on trial for domestic violence, and now they turn to jean-luc melenchon and say: "jean, maybe in the party of unruly france you can tolerate the unruly? and this stirs up the left camp again, that is, this wonderful union, which they called the popular front, is also beginning to explode internally, it is unknown , how will he get to the election, because there are still two weeks left. well, that is, if emmanuel macron wanted to show that there is complete madness on the right and on the left and only he with his the revival party is a normal mentally and politically balanced person, so far

he has succeeded, but it is not known whether this will increase his support in the parliamentary elections, and it is not known what he should do after these parliamentary elections according to their results, you see, there is a serious problem here , which we all need to be told about, because actually the choice. to the national assembly will also create a serious dilemma for emmanuel macron: either to give power to the national association, or to create a block with the left, which he could count on until the socialists did not unite with mélenchon, because the union with mélenchon, whom he accuses of extremism, of anti-semitism, uh, of radical positions, is unacceptable for macron, but on the other hand, it is unacceptable in ob. minority, so to speak,

but which one? it can be, but which one? at least if we look, while we're talking, i 'm watching the ratings that have been published in france for the last few days, well, we can see that lipin's party is really in first place, they can get up to 35% according to various polls, so on. after this unification of the left took place, their rating really jumped to 25%. and already in third place we have macron’s party, which at the moment can get, by the way, their rating has increased a little, that is, if they received up to 15% in the european elections to the european parliament, something like 15% of the votes, now they can already apply for 18-20%. that in the course of this situation their rating will increase, yes, yes, they can match the left, at least, and the left can still fall on their internal strife, and here now the left

they are trying... to take any action to show that they will not separate, but just a few hours before our broadcast, it became known that macron's predecessor as president of france, francois hollande, is running for the french parliament from this people's front. well known to us, this is one of the unprecedented cases when the president of the republic is running for the national assembly of the country, this does not happen in principle, but olan emphasized that in order to stop the far-right, he decided to return to his position already. finished political career, well, it is obvious that a person can afford to end his career , a politician was the president of the french republic, well, this also says a lot about the level of tension, so in this sense , a lot of things will be strange now, one of macron's ministers, by the way, he is also running on the list of the left, the former minister of health of the macron government, you understand, we have one more thing

to say to andrii, the party... there was no macron before macron, there were leftists, there were rightists, ugh , and they fought and competed with each other. macron, when he became president of the republic, essentially invented french centrism, which before him largely did not exist as a significant political force, and here the important question is whether this political centrism will survive without macron, in a country of many revolutions, where people traditionally adhere to radical ... views, where there is no place for the center, what is the center in the french history of history, you name me some french centrist, who was it in general, apart from macron, who can we name, they have either the left, or the right, or or meteran, or with some small fluctuations, yes, yes, well, we always knew that a french politician cannot be a centrist, at least in the last decades, at least in the history of the fifth republic, it was always

a struggle between the left and the right, macron. managed to change this paradigm, but i don't know for how long. and why is it so important, here we are talking about the elections in france, in europe they are actively talking about it, well , of course, they are talking about it in france, in the usa, i see, they are actively talking about it in the american media or, because france is one of the most important countries in europe, if france falls into chaos and into a struggle between ultra-right and ultra-left radicals, which can happen even if a government of national unity is formed, you saw this demonstration today. there were thousands of people there, so we discussed, and if such demonstrations will take place every day during the reign of georges bardel's government, how in general, will there not be chaos in france? and everyone will be interested in these demonstrations, even macron, you know he will be interested in rally activity being directed against the far-right and destroying their rating before the presidential elections, so that people are afraid to vote for a far-right candidate for the position of president, just so that france does not finally

sink. into the catastrophe of a street confrontation, so the stakes are very high, that's true, and definitely, and here is a very important factor, including for us, for ukraine, because if there is stability in france, then we see that there is a position of macron, who supports ukraine, if, if there is chaos, then it is clear that we must be aware that such support and the progress of this support, of course, will not happen. friends, i also wanted to tell you one more thing, to announce a program, a new program, which will premiere on monday at 20:00, it will be called a new week, khrystyna yatskiv and i will start this new week and we will analyze what will happen in the new week, we will discuss the events, of course, that monday,

the previous days, i.e.... essentially connect the previous week, the new week, and of course talk with the most famous experts in completely different fields, so join us on monday at 20:00, and that's all for today, i sincerely thank mr. vitaliy, vitaliy portnikov and we will meet with you in a week, all the best! active event assistance, detailed analysis of important meetings and their achievements. global.