it is, by the way, constantly, it is the ruling party in the province of cape town, i forgot whether it is the western cape or the eastern cape, but in any case in cape town itself, they have been in power for many years, lighting up the parliament building in blue and yellow colors, that is , their position is pro-ukrainian, it, it is known, so there are changes here, there can certainly be changes, but... these changes can be both positive and negative, so we don't know, well, for example, the president of chile borich, who is a leftist, who takes a pro-ukrainian position, who was at the summit, but, well, no it is excluded that in the upcoming elections parties will come to power, right-wing parties to power, and then we will have to find a common language with them, that is, such an option, such... is also

possible, that is why we say that democracy is always a problem , as we see, and unfortunately, we cannot fully predict how it will develop, but we are able to influence, again, we must not overestimate our ability to influence these countries, and moreover , we must understand that sometimes, you know, trying to... jumpstart some problems or blame these countries for that they do not support russia enough, blaming everything on them, here it can play a negative role, one must be very, very, very, very careful, again in those countries, especially if we are talking about asia, about africa, then it is really very strong anti-westernism, in latin america, is anti... americanism, so it is deep in their

blood, and therefore we also need it, we also need to take it into account, but i gave the example of qatar, yes, that is, saudi arabia refused to accept the communique , and qatar on the contrary, that is, we know that there are contradictions between these countries for literature, including, and... maybe such things can also be used, but again, it is very, very careful and very tactful. but on the other hand, you see that the president accused, the president of ukraine, accused china of trying to disrupt the peace summit, but today he said that ukraine does not consider china an enemy, it just wants it to be a friend if to say such a formula, well, well, the formula, the formula is good, but... but we understand that china

actively worked, worked with these countries, that they either did not send their representatives at all, or sent delegations of a lower rank, or, for example, like brazil itself, it was simply represented in the status of an observer, and we understand how close the relationship between brazil and china is here. unfortunately, lula and sydzenpin, and a lot, lula also talked about the future settlement of the multipolar world and so on and so on, well, it is definitely, these are now these conversations, they play along with china and play along with russia as well, how much at all you believe that these

countries now dependent on china, by the way, those countries that are between china and russia, specifically, they simply did not come, however, the countries of central asia, mongolia, they simply did not come. well, there we can even, i think that these countries are under the influence of both russia and china, and to a large extent under the influence, and under the influence of russia, yes, i think that even russian influence here would be enough to prevent. them, to come to this, to this summit, here it is interesting to look at southeast, east asia, yes, where are the countries southeast asia, they, cambodia, malaysia, did not go, thailand was there, thailand went, but refrained from joining the communique, by the way, singapore came.

there was little hope for that, yes, that is, working with singapore, it paid off, and at least if we're talking about participation, the philippines was, ah, represented with... it seems at the level, at the level of the ambassador, but oh well the same indonesia, it also abstained from adopting the communique, so these countries, i think that yes, they are influenced by the position of both russia and china, unfortunately, it has to be here, it you have to understand, you have to be realistic. and to what extent is it possible to modify china's position under some... let's say american pressure, what about the chinese representatives, they say that it is the americans, they are inciting and subjugating everyone, china has a neutral position, china just wants russia and ukraine sat down at the table for victory, they said it literally during the peace summit, once again, well, we understand that in fact the chinese peace plan,

it actually plays along, plays along with russia, it is obvious, and that rhetoric, which, which used by china, in the world, but... american policy can affect it, well, again, we know that the americans say that china does not supply weapons to russia, but dual-purpose goods do, and here we have to look, will it be harsh, will the position of both the usa and the west really become tougher, in relation to china, china can maneuver. certainly, and, but, well, now i see no reason, again, in prolonging the conflict, he, in principle, he will win so far, so far he will win, the only thing is when russia starts rattling nuclear weapons, then china

can say together with india, no, no, no, well, so far, i think they will win if the americans and the west ... in general take a stricter position on the relations of chinese banks with russia on the export of goods of double purpose, well then i think that certain restrictions are possible, but again try to control all this, if it speaks, that is, i look, you know, i always want to comment, so that there is more, that there is more positive. but here it seems to me, when we talk about this topic of the global summit, about the participation of the global south, about china's involvement, i think our comments, they have to be very, very

measured and careful, again, so that we don't create any kind of inflated expectations, we don't have to shout that china is... our enemy, maybe in that sense the president is right, but the fact that in reality china has played along with russia recently, well, it is true, how much do you understand the meaning of india lowering its representation in this forum, well, by and large, india was supposed to be a competitor of china, for it there is no no need to get from presence in this forum, nevertheless she, as you can see... was represented at the level of deputy foreign minister, see, i think it is good to say that she was represented at all, i would say yes, because modi is always talking about politics

multipolarity, they even have their own special term, if i say it, plurilateralism, oh i said it. and modi, modi constantly, if he shows that he takes an independent position, he again benefits from the prices at which india is able to purchase, and russian goods, and at the same time, india needs western technologies and innovations and weapons, why, because who is the main competitor, the main enemy for... here we can use the word enemy, it is china, but india is therefore, india is afraid of that, it needs to be friends with the west and be friends with russia, and so that the alliance along the lines of china, pakistan,

pakistan, by the way, did not come at all, bangladesh did not come, nepal did not come, so that it does not strengthen, that is why i think that if. .. let's say it was a higher level of representation, well, for fashion it would probably be too radical, radical change, change course, once again this position is very cautious. pragmatic, well , cynical in certain things, again, i say what our diplomats cannot say about the cynical position of india, but experts, they can talk about it, but i understand that it is primarily a position of economic benefit, because when nata became cheaper in the gulf countries, india calmly refused to buy russian oil without even a second 's thought, absolutely right, but i say that... russia, russia's problem is not only, it's not only oil, yes, it not only

comrades, this is this strategic quadrilateral: moscow, islamabad, beijing and india, as well as delhi, new delhi, that’s why every step here must be balanced by some, some other steps, by the way, the indians still remind us, and you they sold tanks. become, i say, when was it? well, in the early 2000s, i say, so what, well, they sold, yes, you see, you sold tanks to pakistan then, well, it’s clear that these are also denials, but if stereotypes at the level of these countries also exist, and relations between india and pakistan, they are extremely extremely tense, so where do you think russia will act to create some new conflict after the ukrainian middle east? india, pakistan, the balkans, the caucasus, where is the most favorable zone for

a new war to break out? you really want me to give such advice to putin, right? no, well, we can just look at more risky places, he himself knows what to do without our parades. well, i think again, it's africa, it's the middle east. so. that is , these are countries where it is enough to do it, it is enough easy, in latin america, well, it's just difficult to do, yes, because, well, in latin america, to organize some kind of conflict between interstates, interstate conflict is difficult, but the middle east and africa, well, i think it's easier , and the balkans? you know, in the balkans i still hope that, well, maybe, maybe

yes, but i still hope that the role of the west, including the european union, will be more restraining here, and the balkans closer to europe, and on the one hand. it may be more painful for europe, but on the other hand this will mean europe's attention to these countries and trying to contain the situation, and we see that, for example, in the same africa, there these opportunities will be limited, yes, they are becoming limited, or or in the middle east, after what happened, after attack by hamas, after the disruption. the agreement between israel and saudi arabia, that is,

there are fewer such opportunities, and you yourself know very well that the situation there, you constantly talk about it, that the situation is so complicated that even to imagine hypothetically how to find a way out of this situation, it is very hard. well, by the way, the minister minister of foreign affairs of serbia was at the peace forum in switzerland, also such an interesting telling fact, well... next to him is the president of macedonia, the president of slovenia, the prime minister of croatia, the president of montenegro and the president of kosovo, so the prime minister albania, or the president of albania, i think there was, well, that also says a lot about which side of the balkans and a member of the presidium of bosnia and herzegovina, so i want to end the list, by the way, armenia was there, but azerbaijan was not was not. yes, although azerbaijan is ours a strategic ally, yes, i understand what territorial integrity is, as it were, maybe

he doesn't understand it now, so that's a good point, thank you, mr. oleksii, oleksii, oleksii haran, professor of political science at the kyiv-mohyla academy, scientific director of the democratic initiative foundation named after lk kuchriva, was on the air with us on the air of the politklub program on the espres tv channel. we 're going to break for a few minutes now, but stay with us. together with you , we will summarize our today's conversations. we will not die in paris. now i sure do i know, the legend of ukrainian rock with an exclusive kyiv program, meet the band mertvyi piven. already on june 19 in beletaj, starting at 7 p.m. enjoy the real year. dead rooster. buy tickets for

concert ua. live sound. in the latest edition of the magazine ukraine. diary. of the fallen paramedic iryna cheka tsyboh, a story of courage and a firm stand, energy security expert andrian prokip with advice on how to survive attacks on the power system. the story of ugandan dictator idi amin's path to bloody madness. interesting stories and qualitative analytics. with the country at the center of the main events. buy at press outlets. there are discounts, they represent unbreakable discounts for... 15% in psyllanyk, bam and oskad pharmacies. favorite foods and drinks cause heartburn? do you periodically suffer from heartburn? i am a doctor and for conditions accompanied by heartburn, i recommend drinking izota. izota was created by a pharmaceutical company. izota is specially adapted to reduce symptoms of diarrhea and normalize

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we continue our program, friends, practically most of our conversation today we have... devoted to the peace summit that ended in switzerland today, and here it must be made clear that by and large, unless we really have some inflated estimates from certain meetings, we will call them what they are could really be called, it all looks in a rather optimistic light, this is a summit of support for ukraine, and the fact that such a large number of statesmen came to... to express this support, it at least says that ukraine is on the right side history, that the ukrainian state, the ukrainian people, in this protracted confrontation with the russian federation is the truth, and even those who want to maintain good relations with the russian federation, economic and political, despite all its actions in ukraine, agree with this, because there were

representatives of states whose leaders meet with vladimir putin and support other russian leaders. the country and russia have equally good economic relations, and with russia they are even much more profitable, and they nevertheless came to this summit and discussed the issue of ending the war, and most of them even signed the communique of the summit, which provides precisely for common views on security issues, but one must also realize a simple thing: summits have a chance and opportunities in peacetime. that is why the geltsin summit in 1975 was so important, all the achievements of which were trampled by vladimir putin's russia, because he raised a certain risk under... the era of peace in europe and gave this peace already such a concrete character of the agreement of all countries, the european continent, and

not excluding from this list, of course , the soviet union, the leader of which at the time, general secretary of the central committee of the communist party of the soviet union lenidbrezhniv put his signature under the act in helsinki, as well as the united states and canada, and this basically meant that... that in the era of peace really began in europe, despite the rivalry between the two blocs, and that the borders of european states are established, only european, in the so -called global south, it was simply not called that then, wars continued, secessions continued, the struggle continued, but europe could at least from 1900... 75, actually much earlier from the end of the forties, the beginning of the 50s, and until 2014, enjoy the immutability

of the borders of states, and the impossibility of one state can annex the territory of another, the most important moment, the most important moment, 2020 14, after the annexation of crimea to the russian federation by force. this era is over forever, and now you and i are waiting for some other new era of security, which will not know when it will begin, maybe in the 20s, maybe in the 30s, maybe in the 40s of our century, maybe even later, maybe earlier, no one knows, it is impossible to predict, and now there is a war period, which can also continue for a very long time, now there are countries, at least two, the boundaries of which are not only undefined, but one of which claims the territory of the other, has even written this territory into its constitution, and

demands that the other country from which these territories were stolen leave a part of the territory under its control, as the president of russia clearly stated this vladimir putin during his meeting with russian diplomats. what does this really mean? this means that just in the days of the swiss summit it became finally... clear that there was no political solution to the russian-ukrainian conflict, there is not and there will not be in the foreseeable future, at least during the lifetime of this generation of ukrainians who are now watching this broadcast, you will not see a political solution to this conflict, maybe your children will see it, maybe your grandchildren will see it, i do not guarantee it for them either, but they have the same chances as, say, if we say in 1948. to these people who celebrated the proclamation of the state of israel, you will not see a political solution to the conflict, you will not know what the true borders of your state are, and your children will not

know, and your grandchildren will not know, and you will live like this, they did not believe, but this is how they have been living since 1948, and this is how ukraine will live, at least for some time, i cannot say how long, because, not taking into account my own age, i am not going to ... say that i will see this political solution, most likely or i will live a very long time, and i wish you all to live a long time long. but then what could be the trigger that would tell us that peace can return to ukraine on ukrainian soil? russia's inability to conduct military operations, russia's inability to use force to impose its vision on ukraine, the solution to this conflict. wars are not over. it is at the summits, wars end armies, or the inability of the army to fight for one or other goals set before them by the supreme commanders of these armed forces.

the inability of the russian army to fulfill the goals it set for these armed forces forces of vladimir putin is the way to suspend the war without its political solution. that's how they said in one of the russian liberal periodicals. issues, if the russian army is going to win back the territories that russia considers its own at such a pace, only those, only the territories of the donetsk, luhansk, kherson, zaporizhia regions, then it will need at least 14 years to finally resolve this issue, vladimir putin does not have such time , this means that if there are no sharp turns in the war, a front breakthrough of ukrainian, if the west will... continue to help ukraine with weapons and finances, this is the most important thing, and no summit will replace it, if russia russia will receive blows on its territory, on its arsenals,

in the morning... later, again, i will not say when maybe 20s, maybe 30s, more likely 20s, i'll tell you honestly. vladimir putin will agree to freeze the conflict. and this is the most likely conclusion from all that we see: the freezing of the conflict on the line on which the armies of the two warring, forever warring, will be, forget about reconciliation with russia, this is an eternal war. parties, and i from. i will say right away that someone will ask me, why ukrainian troops will not be able to cross the state border of ukraine, even if ukrainian troops cross the state border of ukraine, it will simply be a line of freezing the conflict, because the russia that is and the russia that is may be after putin, will never recognize this ukrainian state border and will consider ukraine a country of occupiers who occupied the russian donetsk region, luhansk region, kherson region and beyond.

crimea, and will do everything possible to destabilize the situation in this state, to fight against this state, even when there is no war, terrorist attacks, sabotage will be organized, everything to poison the lives of ukrainians, russia will do even in peacetime, as this is happening in the middle east, we need to prepare for this too, there will be no peace here, but there may be a freezing of the conflict, and then it is important how we use this freezing of the conflict in the next storms. after that , the years will not be easy either, there will be turbulence in different regions, wars, collisions, problems in the west, you will see all this with your own eyes, you can't even imagine this picture, i don't want to tell it now, because i literally have 3 minutes, it will be very interesting, so how will we use these opportunities, from it depends on how the ukrainian state will exist in peace or in war, if we manage to convince our western allies that we should be part of nato, that we should have... the nuclear

umbrella of the united states and other nuclear countries, that the western ones should be here basis that russia must realize that if it decides to start a struggle for the liberation of its so-called territories, it will get so that it will not recover or will be forced to use nuclear weapons against the west and enter into a direct nuclear confrontation with the use of strategic nuclear weapons and the possible disappearance of washington and moscow from the face. planet, this will really give us the opportunity to establish peace in those territories where we will then establish ukrainian statehood as part of the european and euro-atlantic project. if we chew snot again, i'm sorry, we will choose again, as it happened more than once in ukrainian history, those who will say that they and russia will solve everything, expect

a new war sooner, led. demographic crisis number two, the destruction of this infrastructure, which will be restored, new fierce battles are already new on the new front line, everything will repeat itself so quickly that you will not even have time to get used to peace, so everything depends not only on putin, and not only on the west, although the west is the most, and putin, and his endurance, his willingness to fight also depends a lot in our fate with you, but how ukraine will use the opportunities that will open up after the end of hostilities, all this depends, first of all, on the common sense of the ukrainian people. if once again the ukrainian people are not at the height of a healthy mind, then you and i will be in this studio discussing a new big russian-ukrainian war, and i promise you that in this situation i will be just as frank and ready to tell about the real picture of events, as well as during this first

big... russian-ukrainian war only the first, there may be a second and a third and a fourth, if there is no common sense of the first russian-ukrainian war of the 21st century, well, now i only have to thank you, friends, wish you a pleasant and peaceful evening and wish you to stay with espresso in our next ethers, victory and peace to you, good luck. there are discounts that represent unbreakable discounts on estezefin 20% in pharmacies plantain, vam and oshchadnyk. walk up the stairs, not with my knees, from pain in the knees, try dolgit cream. the cream relieves and reduces pain swelling and improves the mobility of the joints, with longit cream. you can also walk. doll is the only yellow cream for joint pain.