ivan stupak, military expert, employee of the security service of ukraine from the fourth to the 15th year. he was visiting with us. thank you, mr. ivan, thank you very much. now, as far as i understand, we are going to talk to a rather interesting person, my, it is my dream to talk to such a person, i will explain to you why. this person's name is lidia smola, she is a doctor of political sciences, a professor, but also has a master's degree in psychology. they say it will be, but not right this second, a little later, but a little later, i so hope that for half a minute, but this is always quite such pleasant news for me. this morning , when i arrived, you explained to me who would be visiting me, then i said to myself that now it is probably necessary to direct some political science faculties to the political science faculties. .. psychologists, because a conversation about

putin without a psychiatrist is very difficult, it is not a sociopolitical conversation, it is a psycho, psychopolitical conversation, and finally we found a person who has degrees and master’s degrees in psychology and political science, and also has a title in political science professor, so lydia smola, if i am them, i will see her, i will... say hello to her, good health, mrs. lydia, good day, mr. mykola, look, let's start with the united states, so this was a debate between biden and trump, well, everyone already knows, they sucked it all up, that one is bad, the other is not much better, but when it became clear after that that the sympathies have not changed, it means to me that you... have already happened,

if , no matter what the candidates do, and people treat them the same as if they did some crazy thing, or or something wonderful, and after that, it means that it is impossible to influence people, all debates, all beliefs, there, all these words, supporters, republicans, democrats do not influence anything, people have already made their choice and that's it. postponed a specific vote to the first tuesday after the first monday in november of a leap year month, i hope i did not confuse anything in the constitution of the united states of america. please, ms. lithia. mr. mykola, we need generalizations for analysis, but generalizations quite often carry a large error. to say that the elections have already taken place and that's it. already

decided, and it will be wrong, and an example of the same election, and where there was a debate between the candidate nixon and the then young kennedy, moreover, it was about an undoubted victory for nixon, but kennedy won. i would like to highlight three points here that are important, extremely important, when we are discussing elections. in the united states, firstly, in the middle of the last century of the 20th century, researchers, as you mentioned, political scientists and political psychologists, brought out such a michigan paradigm. what is the point? the michigan paradigm was, and the elections in the united states, the elections in britain and france were analyzed, and they showed, came to the conclusion that the average voter, and during the circles'. voting in the elections almost does not change

his electoral structures, that is, he votes for the political party for which he voted before, and something pushes him to change, well, something so extraordinary would have to be done by the political force, the representatives, so that his sympathies change, so this is the first reason that what happened at this debate did not change his preferences, because actually... the voter of his preferences is quite conservative, this is one moment, now another moment, a very important, extremely important moment, and you were talking about the constitution of the united states, so since the creation of the constitution of the united states, that is since 1800, since 1787 , the head of state has been elected not by citizens, but by a special electoral college, this track...

of voters, this is such a group of people, which is formed by a certain number of deputies, delegates from each state, and which roughly corresponds to it. and there are states that pro republican, that is, always support republicans, there are states that always support democracy, and there are states that call them floating, or floating states. i was a representative, an international observer of the presidential elections when obama was elected, and i actually observed what was happening in these floating states, how much they tried to influence these voters in the electoral college in these floating states, and there were precedents when in some in the elections, they thought that albert gore had won, and then everything was over, so to speak overplayed, so it cannot be said that

everything has already been decided, but as for what was happening there, i watched, well, you know, when the president, when there... biden says, don't behave myself, let's not behave themselves as children, and biden says, and you are a child, that is, from the last century there is a theory of rational choice, which believed that the voter looks for certain rational grounds for his election, that is, he psychologically convinces himself that his election was, his choice was rational, but everything that happens... in recent years shows that the voter is leading himself extremely irrational, when biden says that trump has moral standards like a two-horned cat, and biden, and trump answers that look at his son,

who is in trouble with the law, and and and the court decided that his actions were illegal the voters saw it as such and such a show, but here there is one moment, which in the ukrainian media space was quite so imperceptibly passed by such and such an event, there were great discussions in the united states, this is a feature film, which this year, civil war, in the ukrainian translation, in my opinion, is somehow different it was called this film, actually there they describe the president elected... a president who is very reminiscent of trump, and which leads to the fact that the states start a civil war among themselves, and this is actually the result of how america is turning into what, so talk about , that everything has already been decided, i would not say so, but

i have doubts that biden, as an irishman, accordingly, his psychology is such that he will not give in and give other candidates from the democrats. party to compete for this position and other possible contenders, such as the governor in california, there are still a number of politicians of the democratic party, they were all already preparing for the 28th election, and therefore, as far as the question of replacing biden, well, it was quite a question. doubtful so far, at least for today, but i would believe that after ukraine was actually betrayed and framed by republican president obama in the 14th year, who violated the budapest memorandum and did not protect ukraine, although it

was written in the documents, but we have to ask questions about mobilizing our resources, we have to ask questions about european partners and... remember that we have a whole year to prepare for possible changes that may take place in the united states, we should have joined nato, not now, the ukrainians did not want to join nato, please , the ukrainians did not want to join nato for a long time, i mean the majority did not want to, i am not telling you this, but the ukrainians who did not want to join nato, now have a war. look, look, now we see that the national union of lp did not get 31% in france, which means that the alternative for germany is 16, the freedom party in austria 25, hungarian fide-44, in short, right turn,

as they say, i really don't like to repeat these words, but i have to repeat them, but i have a question, whether i understand correctly or not, that this conservatism, this right order. the war in ukraine, that, that, and, and people say, how great it was there before , there were no covids, there was no war in ukraine, everything was fine, and now let's go back and they vote for conservative parties, or i i understand correctly, not quite, well, i would say, this is a somewhat simplified view, but in it has a meaning, the challenges that are currently facing europe, the european union,... by the way, one challenge could be eliminated if the idea of ​​one of the creators of the european

union, and schuman, who wanted to contribute to the idea itself, in the structure of the creation of the european union, christian values, and this was not accepted, yes, now we see the result of the events that are going in such a snowball. recently in berlin there was... a big rally, which, the purpose of which, that is, the reason, or rather, which was the killing of a syrian refugee, a boy, the killing of an immigrant as well, of polish origin, of greek-polish origin, who had a cross on his chest, a cross, and here he was beating, despite the fact that he had arrived, a cerian, as a refugee had arrived, and there was a rally in this very park, and the question of... inter-ethnic conflicts, the question of the growth of the national question, the question of the lack

of clear, understandable, and prospects, yes, in the world, even in the context of the war and ukrainian refugees, and the fact that russian propaganda constantly threatens to drop a nuclear bomb not only on us, but also on europe there , they determine the search. answers to these questions are actually right-wing - this is one of the answers, i would say here and the right-wing and populists, who also use it, therefore the human desire for it to be like it used to be, when it was clear, when there was no covid, when there were no these lust, terrorist attacks and everything else, it is natural, and from the point of view of psychology , it is absolutely natural, it only speaks of the fact that the politicians who were on the political market, and their decisions, which they made, determined... also also talks about such things, well,

i won't say the era, because it's a little too much it will be pathetic, but we can also talk about the faces of female politicians who are starting to set the tone in europe, look, the last question, ms. lidia, look, it’s like that, but i can completely... i can assume that this is the right turn, the right is not will give themselves advice, just as the left will not give themselves advice, and europe itself, after a year or two, seeing that their eyes are alternatives, that is, voting not for the traditional agenda, but for such a conservative one on the one hand, or on the contrary some so socialist, nothing will be given, and they will simply go back to such traditional, if nearby. days simply because they think now that these are bad, and

now we will choose others, they will probably be better, then they will be convinced that these are not better, but those that may have been really better before, then let's go back again, and let us have all kinds of macrons, sunaks and so on and the like, and i think that it will be somewhat different, although the desire of a person not to recognize some... to say that they were different, and no, not to use cause and effect connections, well, this is very typical, it has been known for a long time, it is possible look, read there what the stoics wrote about this, there millennia ago, i think that here you have not yet taken into account one very important point, and you have not noted, or rather one very important point, this is the huge efforts of russia, russian propaganda. russia threw out all the agents that only i understand it had,

all the canned goods, i analyze those who are called, you know, in quotes, the new russians, and i am impressed by how small such agent groups they are, and just stuck in europe , i somehow took the trouble to note the number of speeches of those who call them inanagent well, this is not to belittle their role as soft power of soft power in europe, and that's actually what these representatives of russian science are doing. of the intellectual establishment in europe, which they contribute, i am not talking about those agents who are destructive, well let's remember, let's not remember so much time, mrs. lidia, finish the sentence, russia contributes to these processes of the deepening political crisis, about which you said thank you

very much, lidia smola, doctor of political sciences, professor, master of psychology, was with us, thank you very much. i really liked it, we will continue to invite people, i really like this on the border between political science and psychology of people who can explain what is going on in people's heads. now we will talk about latin america, despite the fact that it is very, very far away, i was once in latin america, i could not believe that i am from ukraine, well, just look at the map, well, you can't get there for too much . too much , too much time is needed. ivan fichko, expert of the council's latin american and caribbean research program of foreign policy, ukrainian prism. good health, mr. ivan, thank you for visiting us. the first question is about a very exotic country, i started studying it literally the day before yesterday, it's called

bolivia, there was such a bolivar, and he was making a revolution there. america and so they would name a whole country after him, but i was surprised to know that rebellions were very common there, but i did not think that since 1800 25 or 24, in fact, when this country was founded, there were about 200 coups or attempted coups, moreover the first coups or attempts were literally a year after the formation, this is how you imagine a coup would be in ukraine. it became independent in 1991, there would be a coup already in 1992, and then in 1993, and then in 1994 and so on, there is such and such a haystack story, there are decades with three coups, there are decades with only one, such a peaceful decade, what with bolivia, why did they

also want a rebellion last week, well, that rebellion did not succeed, the president... the one that was remains, please, mr. ivan, and you entered correctly the fact is that bolivia, even against the background of other latin american countries, stands out in terms of the number of these military conflicts, and even more so, it is possible to highlight that in 1946, that is, after the second world war, bolivia had 39 coup attempts, which is a record not only in latin america, in general in the whole world, but what happened last, well, actually this week, and literally within this week. it is difficult to call it even an attempted coup d'état and there is a lot of trouble representatives of the opposition, they even blame the president himself, but who allegedly caused this coup, and that this is allegedly an incision that he himself caused. it is worth noting a few words here regarding belivia itself, in fact since 2005 it has been under the rule of the socialists, at first it was such an odious evo

morales, known for supporting all these extreme leftists and including close relations with the russian regime happened to him. but since the 19th year, during such a mass protest, they did not want him any further to increase the population so that he would be the president again, here, but after some time anyway, in the 20th year , his representative of his party, the mas luis arce party, came to power in the country, who has remained the president since then, but recently on the eve of the upcoming elections, which will be held in bolivia in 2025 , a very big conflict took place between these two former friends and colleagues, the fight essentially ended. to this party, the struggle for the soon-to -be new presidential post, well, precisely between louis marce and the current president and so evo morales, and to this is also added the fact that there is a very big economic crisis in the country, which is a consequence of this failed socialist policy, inflation is constantly growing, and there is a shortage of even currency, including cash, dollars, very big

problems there is also fuel, and other moments, and here, in the background of such a difficult moment , there is this attempt... a coup d'état, when a group of soldiers, a very small group, on a tank tried to break through, well, in fact, they also broke through the presidential administration, came in with statements that they wanted to remove this government, general juan jose zuniga, who was in general quite close to the president and is also what he was called a people's general, a socialist, was in charge of the events, and literally this whole thing went on the situation, as the opposition calls it, a fight for just a few hours, after they entered the presidential administration , president luis arce, he turned to his supporters, to the population with a demand, a request, more precisely, to mobilize for protection of democracy, but several hundreds of people did go, but... to the presidential administration, to the government quarter in order to express support for the current administration, at the same time, the president himself said that he would not give in, and the entire world public, the community of of all

countries also supported the current administration, and supposedly under such pressure , these rebels decided to give in and leave, you have an important question, you know, there are just clear examples in the same latin america. and several times you emphasize socialist government, socialist direction, socialists and so on, and there is a very clear, clear, clear picture, we can look at cuba, where sometime in 59 fidel came, in 61 the food ran out, and by 2024 the food didn't show up, there's no food, there's nothing, and the car is from 1959 and so on and so on, and there is, for example, chile, which also headed in the way that allende proposed, so socialist something,

then, yes, definitely the bloody pinochet regime, let's not, they are not perfect, to say the least, but they after much hesitation went down the anti-socialist path, and they have peace in... they have food, they have gasoline, they have modern everything, and they are one of the most, well, calm and self-confident countries in latin america, why do people in bolivia or ecuador and so on and so forth, they don't see, well, look, go to cuba eventually, well, go shopping and try to buy something, and please go to santiago, the capital of chile, and you will see what is there what to buy people have money and everything is fine, why are these idiotic socialist ideas so popular in latin america? ah, really socialist ideas,

in general, this polarization between the right and the left, it is present in essentially all latin american countries, you mentioned the example of chile, which really had a very successful capitalist relationship with the support of the united states, but now we know that for example, the government of chile under the leadership of gabriel borich is also socialist, that is, even after all these ... and it seemed to achieve a certain standard of living, there were still many problems that the population did not think were fixed, so they in search of a better life, left-wing regimes returned, and this is constantly happening, then a pink left-wing wave, when in most countries of latin america the left is in government, then the right returns, here we see, for example, as in argentina, and there after many years of a left-wing regime the right-wing force came under the leadership of halir miley, that is, there is a constant struggle between different groups, and as for bolivia or other countries, the basis of left-wing ideology. there are mostly, first of all, these are trade unions, these are the poor and such classes of the population, who are largely focused on these subsidies, on the support of the population, on various

social programs, programs to fight poverty, and that is why such ideas are no longer suitable for them, when there is a free market, for example, what was tried in latin america, in particular, actively implemented in the 90s, they reject it, plus, if we take the same bolivia, we understand that a large part of the population there is essentially the descendants of these people. indians, indigenous groups of the population, who have their own problems and who are very are also loyal to the left ideology, to that of eva morales, who is just a native of them, by the way, from these indigenous groups and used them in his politics, well, that is, a very complex structure of the population, there are also big economic problems, that creates such a favorable ground for the spread of these ideas, especially since it is from the 20th century that there are still consequences of this influence of the cold war, when the soviet union tried so, all these regimes , to spread its influence, it now remains in the format of supporting influence from russia and china of the same and those more ancient regimes

of venezuela, cuba and those who are also trying, let's talk about miley, you already, mr. ivan, excuse me, mentioned this miley from argentina, i will remind the audience that argentina between the first and second world wars was on ninth place in the world, it was a rich, prosperous, serious country. then there was a series of communist-fascist regimes, there were peronists and so on, and they really wanted to please the same trade unions, and now it seems to me to be in the 59th or the 69th, well in short, very far. the question is the following, for some reason , i don't know, i like argentina, i don't know, maybe because they eat a lot of meat, maybe because they produce a lot of good wine. but i also see this miley, who really followed a hard capitalist path, but now huge masses of people are protesting

against him, they want to... the return of justice, here is miley himself, and you just saw the anti-miley demonstrations, and you have the impression that he will be removed now , they will start building socialism again, which means that what is argentina, it is once every 5-10 years a crazy financial and economic crisis, inflation is 1000%, there is no food, there is no money, there is nothing... there is no, they were tied to the dollar, then untied from the dollar, nothing helps, miley came, he said the same phrase that ukrainians always say, which ukrainians don't like very much, there is something in common between ukrainians and argentines, work more, rest less, earn less, for more work, oh, no, we, we, no, and tango, who will dance, and who will drink wine, no one is ours instead of us

wine. won't happen, say the argentinians, what do you say, mr. wang? you see, even argentinians in their mentality are obviously tired of constant problems with poverty, constantly taking the first places in anti -inflation ratings in the world, and therefore gave a chance to a really very ambiguous such a very charismatic person with very radical statements, remember, he promised there and introduce the dollar instead of the peso, and abolish the central bank and he had very, very many radical reforms, he won the election, that's great, but the main question is whether he will succeed implement, because the problem is that despite the fact that he is the president, that the upper and lower houses of the argentine parliament are still in the hands of the opposition, his svoboda party is advancing, has very few deputies, and the main issue was in therefore, will he be able to do it, and just recently, a few weeks ago , miley still managed to win, i can say a victory, which gives hope that he will still be able to achieve his goals , such radical reforms with a market economy, and therefore

that... it was possible to pass this big law, the basic law, which includes a lot of things related to the fight against inflation, mass privatization, a very large reduction of all public expenditures, subsidies and so on, of course, these reforms are a little cut, they not as radical as they were before, because otherwise they would simply not have been accepted, but all of it is very, they are very powerful, and of course you mentioned and showed footage of these protests, of course that a very large part of the population, especially it's a thread especially people who are subsidized for dependents. were from payments by the argentine government all these years, of course, that these are people who are politically affiliated with his opposition, with his opponents, the so-called peronist kishner parties, they oppose it, and there were cadres and how they there were burning cars, rioting, but more recently he also takes a very tough position and is now actively trying to follow to some extent the policies of the president of salvador, naib buqueli , in order to give more powers to the police,

more law enforcement. authorities in the fight against crime and including with such a tough opposition to all these protest actions, of course, there are questions about the democratic nature of these events, but on the other hand , we understand that otherwise it would be difficult for him to advance his ideas, especially considering everything is ahead, and i can also note the latest results of sociological polls, which are quite good for miley, but half of the population continues to, something with us. happened, yes, i see, we hung, hang, hang, yes, something we wanted about about mileia more to continue, but i am not convinced that it is worth doing, because now we will have a small plot and a small advertisement, after that we will return to the economy in the first place, and in short, we will definitely talk about argentina at some point, because it is a really interesting country experienced fascism, communism, socialism,

dictators and... juntas, mass murders and so on, and the war with britain, well, in short, there is a lot to talk about, but the european commission called the opening of negotiations on the accession of ukraine a key moment to the european union, about what many ukrainians dreamed, i will not say that all, but certainly many, and i belong to these many, so this week it was officially announced at the intergovernmental conference in luxembourg, that is, it is now official... the words are not ukrainians, but europeans , that we are starting negotiations, but this is only the first stage, so to speak, feeling out the situation, understanding each other, this is an important stage, but it is only the first, now the preparatory process begins, just prepare, i repeat, the preparatory process for the main part begins, i.e. the main part still has to live.