the far right is one step away from power in france, where the first turkish parliamentary elections were held. party. le pen is in the lead while president macron's alliance is in third place, what happens next and how it will affect support for ukraine, this is the next 15 minutes of the bbc broadcast live from london. dzaferov works in the studio. on sunday , the first round of extraordinary elections to the country's parliament took place in france, in which the far-right party marine le pen won the majority of votes. economy of the european union

will find out whether the far-right will come to power. and in paris, hundreds of people gathered for protests against the victory in the first round of the far-right party. people shouted slogans against fascism and the far right. the protest was organized by an alliance of left-wing political parties. the left took second place in the elections, which, by the way, had a record turnout of almost 70%. so, what was the atmosphere like at the election? a dramatic victory for the national unity party, which for years was considered too radical by most french voters for its anti-immigrant policies, euroscepticism and relations with the kremlin. however, the day before, arn, as this political force is called here, won more than a third of all voters' votes. its leader, marine le pen, intends to win the french presidential election as well. in her address, le pen assured:

there is no reason to fear the government led by the national union, but this struggle is not over yet. president emmanuel macron took a big risk by calling the election. smile, says this boy in the crowd, and macron smiles. the french president now hopes that an alliance of centrists and leftists will be able to prevent the victory of the national association in the second round of the elections, but there are no guarantees that it will work in the end. preparations for the upcoming olympic games are underway, so the political polarization of society is a cause for concern. that so many people in france vote so radically is worrying. it used to be a small group of people, but now we see that a large part of the population chooses either the extreme right or the extreme left. supporters of the left gathered for a protest in the center of paris, someone calls the far-right fascists. it feels generic anxiety, because tomorrow is the future... not

only of france, but of all of europe. and let's take a closer look at the results of these, as observers say, historic elections. with a margin of more than 5%, the national union party, politician marine le pen and her opposite, jordana bardelet, are in the lead. this far-right party won a little more than a third of the votes. and in second place, the new popular front, its leader jean-luc mélenchon, and it was they who organized the protest on the streets of paris. and on the third. the city with 20% of emmanuel macron's alliance together. so, in a week, france can expect a kind of political earthquake, because depending on what the result will be, the far right can get an absolute majority in the french parliament. this is the plan of le pen and bardela. let's listen to how the politician reacted to the victory of her party in the first round. the people of france clearly demonstrated with this vote. his

desire to turn the page after seven years of despicable corrosive power. we sincerely thank the voters and welcome this result as the first step towards demonstrating a sign of confidence to us, which is our honor and duty. in the case of the victory of the far-right, marine le pen herself will not lead the french government, this man, 28-year-old jordan bardela, can become the new prime minister. he is the president of the party and a protégé. marine le pen, and it is he who can replace the current prime minister, 34-year-old gabriel atal. let's hear what he had to say about the victory of the far right. this night is like no other. you know, i 'll get straight to the point. the ultra-right is currently on the threshold of power. never before in our history democracy, the risk of far-right dominance in the national assembly was not so high. therefore, our goal is clear - to do everything possible to... prevent the victory of the national

association in the second round and dominance in the national assembly, and thus protect the country from the administration of this disastrous project. i appeal to everyone. voters, none of your votes should go to national unity. france deserves no hesitation. we must not hesitate, and if we want to live in a decent france, we must do everything possible to prevent it worst case scenario. and what 's next? next sunday, the french will go to the polls again, then it will be known who will lead the country in the coming years? bbc correspondent hugh scofield has more. now we are entering a completely new campaign, the second round is ahead, and the victory of the national association next sunday is far from a fact. another big winner last night was the left-wing coalition, which was created precisely to oppose national unification. this

means that there was one in each electoral district only one left-wing candidate, so this coalition showed a very strong result and they will do everything so that in the second... in next sunday's round there is an anti-right majority in the constituencies, and if they can agree with the voters, with macron's centrists, to concentrate the votes against the national association, then i think that the number of deputies that the national association receives will decrease. my prediction is that the national union will still win this election, but probably not with an absolute majority. and this, of course, will lead to a whole a number of new problems for the country. if there is no natural majority in the parliament. it is still unclear how macron will work with such a parliament. if, and this is quite likely, the national association becomes the largest party in the parliament, but does not have an absolute majority, then jordan bardeli,

a young leader, may be offered the position of prime minister. he may or may not say yes. he hinted that he would refuse because he did not want his name to be associated with impossibility. ensure a vote in parliament, and macron can ultimately as a result, to appoint some transitional government of technocrats, as was the case in italy with mario draghi a few years ago. and more about how big the changes in the french government can be, we are talking with a parisian journalist, journalist maria olekse, i welcome you on the air, but the initiator of the early elections was macron, after the ultra-right got high results in the elections to the european parliament, so, what... in this way did he achieve and didn't he miscalculate? congratulations, he imagined three things: first, he wanted to save his own party, whose ratings are collapsing in front of my eyes, if emmanuel macron had waited for 2027, when the parliamentary elections are scheduled,

then perhaps there would be nothing left from his party, from the ratings, and now with this 20%, he would at least save the face of his party. the second scenario, the second theory he had - is that the left parties will not be able to unite in an alliance and everyone will quarrel again. here he made a mistake, the left parties were able to unite and even took second place with 28%, thus overtaking macron's party. and the third scenario, which macron nevertheless foresees this coexistence, cohabitation with the far-right, he sees this scenario as probable. and in fact, perhaps his theory is to crash-test the far right so that they fail on certain policy issues and thus not come to power in 2027 already in the presidential chair. and in general, does

the french president now have a chance to stop this strong tilt to the right of the new parliament? there are few chances, if in 2017... marine le pen had only eight deputies, then in 2022 there will be 89, and now they 230-280 deputies are predicted, so this inclination to the right in france can be traced very, very concretely, and even if we assume that the far-right will come to power and there will be cohabitation, that is, cohabitation with macron, with the president, well, let's say, a centrist according to his latest policy , it is not guaranteed that... far-right politicians will fail in their ability to do something in the country and will not come to power in 2027, because they will always be able to communicatively place the blame on macron, who is not going anywhere until 2027, and from whom the french, frankly, are tired, because

his ratings are very bad, only 27% of respondents consider macron a good president, and here is the question of aid to ukraine, what place did it take in the election campaign and how big a role did it play? you know, the space occupied was minimal, the issue of ukraine was in this election campaign. completely absent. the first reason is that the campaign was radically quick, it lasted only three weeks, it is the shortest election campaign in the entire history of the fifth republic. secondly, in the ranking of things that worry the french, ukraine does not rank first place, this is primarily purchasing power, pensions, salaries, economy, health care, education, security and internal security, and then there are geopolitical issues, a lot. if pushed further in this list, the only moment when the issue

of ukraine was raised and very acute, it was during the debate, when gabriel tal said to giordana bardela, asked him: what to do with your adviser, who has dual citizenship, french, russian , and candidate bardela did not know what to answer, it was such a moment very specific in these debates, and indeed we thus learned again about the true face of the national front. and russian interests, which have always, always pursued this party, and which have not gone anywhere. marine le pen's party, they have been trying for years to move away from extremists and from ambiguous statements about the same russia, but in general, what has changed in the party, why have they become so popular? it has actually changed, maybe not the party, because here in paris they jokingly hang posters: the national front is me... your ex, he says he has changed, but this not true, this is such a humorous campaign against

the national front, because they have really been in politics for a very, very long time, but fundamentally the values ​​of the party have not changed, they have simply improved their communication, they avoid sharp angles, they avoid making any absolutely suicidal statements like for example, very pro-russian statements, while their electorate became so broad because of the protest vote against poly'. macron, this is primarily france, which is tired of the politics of the current president, france which feels abandoned. macron is called the president of big cities. while hospitals are disappearing in towns and villages, schools are closing, bus lines are disappearing, some transport junctions are disappearing, and thus deep france, all the villages and towns, they feel that the current president has forgotten about them, the left alliance was... quarreled over the years after francois hollande's mandate, and the left

can't offer france an alternative, they're just now finally starting to come together, and we'll see what the result is math we have air time, we have something to finish on. thank you, a journalist from paris, maria oleksa, was with us, thank you. so, if the far right wins the elections in the second round, what will french society expect, after all, the government. in this case, president macron will find himself in opposite political camps. french writer anniyas continues. when we get an absolute, or even just a very large, but not overwhelming majority for marine le pen's party, one of the possible options is that emmanuel macron appoints jordan as prime minister bardel, who is the president of the le pen party. this is written in the constitution of the republic, but it is very difficult to imagine. the existence of president macron and jordan bardela, with whom he does not share any values, even

the most basic ones. therefore, although president macron has said that he will not resign, it is difficult to imagine how he will be able to work with this government for the next three years. if the president resigns, we will have elections in the fall, at the same time when the americans will elect their president. it is likely that the presidency will end up in le pen's hands are here. but if... by some miracle president macron stays in office and manages to coexist with the bardela government for the next three years, something else may happen, something that the french will see for the first time in their lives, because the national front has never had such a level of power. yes, they won at the local level, but not at the national level. so if they turn out to be completely incompetent, the french, who very easily direct their anger at the government, may decide in three years that they've had enough of them. that's all for today take care,

we are continuing the live air of the tv channel and... its project new week, a project led by us, andriy smolii and khrystyna yatskiv, and now we have a traditional hour, 45 minutes to be exact. of our analysis, our discussions, those events that are important for our country, that actually create, are now creating politics and history, not only on a ukrainian scale, but probably on a planetary scale, so i will only add from myself that i do not claim to be the truth, on some analysis exclusively from his side,

after all, a journalistic point of view has a place here be, but andrii's thoughts can be heard very well. valuable, and we will talk with him today about such topics. we will, of course, talk about the thesis of volodymyr zelenskyi, at least the possibility of a model of negotiations with the russian federation, in which there are no direct contacts between ukraine and russia, but a third party will take care of this process. who it may be, in what format it may or may not be, we will talk about it, we will definitely mention it. and what, i would say, is now disturbing, rumbling, perhaps even the whole of europe union, this is a certain trend that is very clearly recorded now in the actual election processes in france, yes, we have the triumph of the far right, if we talk about the european union in general, then the other pole is also not

far behind, and also has certain successes, but what if say, the most weighted position is great. position and whether the eu is losing it in all these stormy events. we remind you that we have an ongoing survey, and it concerns your opinion on whether ukraine should agree to negotiations with the russian federation with the participation of mediators. if you think it's worth talking, if someone will be between opposing parties, please call 0800 200. 11 381 free of charge, if you believe that under no circumstances, even with the participation of intermediaries, this cannot be done, then 0800 211 382, ​​although you know, i understand that it is even a little possible that she swayed our viewers to vote in the wrong direction, because there may be another position, there may be people who believe

that it is necessary to speak without any intermediaries, so direct negotiations, i do not rule out that in our... country can still have such thoughts, although, although, they should be purely, purely legally, it is now an absolute exception, because, if i am not mistaken, the decree of the president of ukraine volodymyr zelenskyi has been in effect since october 2022, by which he actually puts into effect the decision of the national security and defense council that negotiations with the russian federation are, in principle, not are possible there up to a certain point, and i don't think we've... reached that point, have we? if we are talking about these statements of zelenskyi, yes, i already emphasized them at the beginning of the program when we spoke with mr. mosienko, they are not isolated, i.e. we have been observing a certain trend for the last few weeks, and this trend is that various

bloggers, various political experts, various journalists, various youtube projects, that is , you... they, they began to talk very actively about the topic of possible negotiations, and here actually, after that here is this statement of volodymyr zelenskyi, where he says that it is possible, there may be negotiations with mediators, there may be negotiations of something like a grain agreement, when it was, according to zelenskyi's words, i would not really... i would emphasize , why, because here really, well, there is none nothing seditious, all the same we understand that these negotiations will someday take place in theory, yes, and we will still have to agree on something with some mediators, relatively speaking, in whatever version it would be, it would not have an end, but for example , when

mr. fesenko speaks with ms. mosiychuk, m, by the way, it was an interesting conversation, and there both mosiychuk and fesenko said such things that related to the fact that we won, that can be considered a victory, maybe a victory can be considered that , that there in ukraine remains the capital of larger reggae, most regions, access to the sea, nataliya mosiychuk said this, by the way, president volodymyr zelenskyi said approximately the same thing in the same interview. that, for example, for our key partner the united states, it is important to save us as a state, but there is no question of going to the borders of 1991, well, apparently, and here it is, for example, here it is... an interview, and a number of others interviews, a number of other positions of various political scientists, they really start

to suggest that it is possible for us, at least, if not to be prepared, then to be groped information ground for possible negotiations. another interesting thing, by the way, zelensky said in the same interview that the united states of america... at the moment does not see ukraine in nato, this is also a very important thing that should be talked about, that should be emphasized attention, before that biden said that wait, for now nato, no. why am i talking about nato? because even if such a situation occurs that there will be a conflict or war, or rather, frozen. what is the warranty for? this is the first question to ask: what is the guarantee for ukraine, that the war will not start with new

force at any moment. what is really interesting here are the so-called security agreements, which we constantly sign with many individual countries and their representatives, with the european union, one of the last ones, and they are often presented to us as well. as agreements that are supposed to protect us from new aggression by the russian federation, yes, if it happens, i'm just wondering how we, how the world in general will qualify, new aggression is happening, or is it a way out of the frozen phase of the conflict that began in 2014 , acquired full-scale in 2022, we do not rule out that... the intensity of the war may decrease, because there are certain natural processes, and such an intense war cannot continue forever, but can we say that this is

a freeze, our partners will be considered the end of this conflict, and that really worries me, because the devil is in the details, we already have the experience of the budapest memorandum, where we thought we had certain guarantees. from the signatories, but it turns out that we did not have such guarantees as, as the word goes, if i'm not mistaken, assurances, assurances, something that they guarantee our territorial integrity and not only in exchange for our nuclear, as such, in a word, i would be very meticulous about all the agreements signed, no, do not hope that , that they will work as we... expect at the appropriate moment, and still would be very cautious when it comes to any negotiations with the russian federation. what a situation we have: i do not want

to diminish in any way the status or importance of the memoranda that we are currently signing or treaties with other countries, i don't want to, why are they, why are they great, because it's still political support for our country, but let's be honest, what is their legal status? the verkhovna rada does not ratify them, neither the council, nor the national parliament of this state, nor the national parliament of ukraine, does not ratify them, that is, they cannot be considered a classic, classic intergovernmental agreement, a classic, classic something like, for example, joining nato, because the entry to nato provides for a referendum and ratification by the verkhovna rada of ukraine, that is, it is an agreement about... obligations, this is an agreement that obliges the parties to respond and comply with the nato charter in this case certain

articles, if a country is attacked, we help that country, if ukraine is attacked, they help, but here and here and here, let's say, not only the fifth, but also the fourth article takes place, yes, if we recall the incidents with russian... missiles over poland, well, for us, people who are not in the north atlantic alliance, but from are a little familiar with the statute, because we have a certain goal enshrined in the constitution, after all, it seemed well, here it is, well, when the airspace of a nato country is actually violated by a russian missile, in which, we emphasize, there is no russian pilot, which means that in fact you are not going directly into a confrontation with a russian, and still the missile does not go down and... and moreover, when this missile falls in poland and leads to destruction, if i'm not mistaken at that moment, even to the casualties, two people then died, all this in no way ... does not

trigger the mechanism of interference in the process, yes, the members of the alliance, all this starts the consultation mechanism, we will talk among ourselves about what happened in order to make a decision, how do we react to it, this is also interesting, this is also really interesting, and it speaks of a certain political problem, that is, a political position, just as there is a political position, a political problem, which is because they do not want to see ukraine now. member of nato, at least some states. and this, this too, is a political plane. it consists in the fact that even if the war conditionally stops, however it stops, at the moment, i do not see that there is a political will to accept ukraine into of the north atlantic alliance. and therein lies the biggest problem of what we

began to discuss. we started to discuss. negotiations and possible freezing. freezing is also a very big risk. and in addition to the fact that , in fact, de facto, we lose our territories for a certain time, they are now controlled by russia, but this will mean that their liberation is delayed for a long, long time, but we do not have any guarantee of that , that... that there will be no attack on other territories, if there is no accession to nato, i still once i emphasize, the worst thing the west can do in this situation is not to give ukraine real legal, even guarantees that this security umbrella will be over it, and this actually helps russia. in the implementation of its

further scenarios, it throws ukraine into a possible scenario, for example, the so-called gray zone. we understand very well that the freeze and non-admission of ukraine to nato and the european union is actually putting ukraine in a gray zone. well, let's face the truth. this is a problem that we already have to talk about today must articulate what we must now prove to our international. to the partners of the united states of america, that if we cannot now, conditionally speaking, militarily liberate these territories, if someone thinks so, including in the west, then at least give security guarantees for, as blinken says, so that ukraine was an independent state, so that ukraine would be a sovereign state, so that in 3, 5, 7, 10 years

, russian troops would not go to kyiv or to the dnipro or to odesa again, there will be no guarantees of this , this is the first question, and the second question, a where are the guarantees that this political and economic russian peace will not creep into ukraine, which is not a member of the eu or nato, and i’m sorry, i’m sorry, it’s already creeping here, and there is no guarantee, russia immediately after the end of hostilities, if we won't do it. we and the west will not take appropriate steps to meet each other and will go here again with our hybrid scenario. i think that maybe it would be worth considering this statement of volodymyr zelenskyi in view of what exactly ended, the agreement on the so-called grain corridor ended, and this agreement ended, i will remind you through

the mediation of the un and turkey. by the fact that russia de facto withdrew from it, but it did not adhere to it in principle, yes, there were provocations, there were shellings and so on and so on, and this story was crowned by the fact that the real provision of civil shipping was achieved exclusively by work of the armed forces of ukraine. i don't know if we can say that this is a three-way story. tripartite format gave us some time in order to have the tools and to be able to cut through ourselves and our vessels and foreign ships with our grain by sea are expensive, but now civil shipping in the black sea exists in a limited format, but we can carry it out and can support it, and here , in principle, this is...