war can decrease, because there are certain natural processes, and such an intense war cannot continue forever, but can we say that this freeze will be considered by our partners to be the end of this conflict, and this really worries me, because the devil is in details, we already have the experience of the budapest memorandum, where we thought we had certain guarantees from signing. but it turns out we didn't have guarantees so much as, as the word is, if i'm not mistaken, assurances, assurances, something that they guarantee our territorial integrity and not only in exchange for our nuclear, as such, in a word, i would be very scrupulous about all signed agreements, no, do not hope that they will work as we expect them to. when

it comes to any negotiations with the russian federation. we have a situation: i do not want in any way to diminish the status or importance of the memoranda we are currently signing or treaties with other countries, i don't want to, why are they, why are they great, because they are still political support for our country. but, let's be honest, which one their legal status? verkhovna rada. it does not ratify them, neither the council, nor the national parliament of this country, nor the national parliament of ukraine, does not ratify them, that is, they cannot be considered a classic, classic intergovernmental agreement, a classic, classic something like, for example, joining nato, because joining nato provides for a referendum and ratification by the verkhovna rada of ukraine, that is, it is an agreement on obligations. this is an agreement that

obliges the parties to respond and comply in accordance with the nato charter in this case certain articles, if a country is attacked, we help that country, if ukraine is attacked, they help, and here and here there is, let's say, not only the fifth, but also the fourth article, yes, if we recall the incidents from russian missiles over poland. or to us, people who are not members of the north atlantic alliance, but are a little familiar with the statute, because we have a certain goal enshrined in the constitution, in the end, it seemed, well, here it is, well, when the airspace of a nato country is actually violated by a russian missile, in which we emphasize, there is no russian pilot, which means that in fact you do not go to a direct confrontation with a russian, and still the missile does not go down, and moreover ... when this

missile falls in poland and causes destruction, if i am not mistaken at that time, even to the casualties, yes, two people died then, all this in no way triggers the mechanism of intervention in the process, yes, members of the alliance, all this triggers the mechanism of consultation, we will talk among ourselves about what happened in order to to make a decision, how to react to it, this is also interesting, that too actually interesting. and this speaks of a certain political problem, that is, a political position, just as there is a political position, a political problem, which is that ukraine does not want to be a member of nato now, at least some states, and this, this is also a political plane , it consists in the fact that even if the war conditionally ends, no matter how it ends, at the moment i do not... that

there is a political will to accept ukraine into the north atlantic alliance, and this is where the biggest problem lies , that we began to discuss, we began to discuss negotiations and possibly a freeze. freezing, these are also very big risks, and in addition to the fact that, in fact, de facto we lose our territories for a certain time, they are now controlled. but this will mean that their release is delayed for a long, long time, but we do not have any guarantee that there will be no attack on other territories if there is no accession to nato. i emphasize once again that the worst thing the west can do in this situation is not to give ukraine real legal, even guarantees that... that there will be this

security umbrella over it, and this actually helps russia in its implementation. further scenarios, this throws ukraine into a possible scenario, for example, the so-called gray zone. we understand very well that the freeze and non-admission of ukraine to nato and the european union is actually putting ukraine in a gray zone. well, let's face the truth. this is a problem that we should already talk about today, that we should already articulate today, that we should now prove to our international partners, the united... states america, that if we cannot now, conditionally speaking, militarily liberate these territories, if someone thinks so, including in the west, then at least give security guarantees for, as blinken says, ukraine to be an independent state , so that

ukraine would be a sovereign state, so that in 3-5, 7, 10 years , russian troops would not go to kyiv or the dnipro or odesa again. there will be no guarantees of this, this is the first question, and the second question, and where are the guarantees that ukraine, which is not a member of the eu or nato, will again this political and economic russian peace will come to an end, but i'm sorry, it's coming here, and there are no guarantees, russia immediately after the end of hostilities, if we don't do it, we'll go west. shall we not take appropriate steps to meet each other and go here again with our hybrid scenario? i think that maybe it would be worth considering this statement of volodymyr zelenskyi in view of

what exactly ended, this agreement on the so-called grain corridor ended, and this agreement ended, i will remind you through the mediation of the un and turkey, that russia from... de facto came out, then it was not observed in principle, yes, there were provocations, there were shelling and so on and so on, and this story was crowned by the fact that the real provision of civil shipping was achieved exclusively by the work of the armed forces of ukraine. i don't know if we can talk about the fact that this is a three-way story, a three-way format. we were given some time in order to have tools and to be able to cut a way for ourselves and for our ships and foreign ships with our grain by sea, but now civil shipping in the black sea exists in a limited format, but we can

carry it out and we can support it, and here , in principle, this is a three-way story, it had an exclusively temporary er... temporary effect, perhaps volodymyr zelenskyi had found something, something like that, because we understand that any arrangement with the russian federation is a highly uncertain, highly uncertain story and shouldn't be relied on too much for sure, but the fact that it might help us buy time for something, yes, maybe , that's exactly what he meant the ukrainian president, but it's strange to sit and think about it. in fact, anything can happen, but the question is whether russia needs it, whether russia will go to, well, for example, a ceasefire at this stage, whether it is beneficial for them or not, this is also a question, and here the question is and what wins, we're talking about the fact that

we, we have to win somehow time, again, maybe, but only in that case. "if the west sets itself the goal that ukraine should win this war, and ukraine should never be attacked by russia, never again. this is the main question, if the west does not ask itself such a question, then with a probability, well, not 100%, but 90% , ukraine, which... will not be under the security umbrella of the western world, will be attacked by russia. so you asked the question, does russia need it, pause, does russia need it? well, again, returning exclusively to the statistical data of the last literally two

months, we are mostly talking about june, which has passed, then all the graphs and all exclusively confirmed data of our general staff they are talking about the fact that the losses of automotive equipment, special equipment, artillery systems, in general there will be a peak in june 2024 on the part of the russian federation, are colossal. as for air defense, in principle, there were also a lot of destroyed and damaged assets, there were more only in june 2023, that is , exactly a year ago, and this is quite illustrative, ukraine finds opportunities to destroy russian capabilities, exclusively on the battlefield and on frontline territories, but is this enough... for putin to see the need for a break, we cannot

there is no way to be sure, because we have certain successes, we are wearing down the russian army, this is objective, but we are wearing out our capabilities in the same way, and russia is also wearing out the ukrainian population, and it is wearing out the ukrainian economy, ukrainian energy resources, economy. we now have a situation, to put it mildly, not the best because, again, energy carriers, we see what is currently being done in the country, the audience will not let us lie, business today is not in the best situation because of this, and we have, this is also about objective and, unfortunately, not very reasons, and we we must understand that russia is unlikely to stop in this direction, at least until

the sky is closed above us. of these systems, which are available in the world, which could already be in ukraine. unfortunately, this delay is another and the misunderstanding of what ukraine needs has led to the fact that we have this situation with the energy system today. i would like to consider one more aspect altogether. let's imagine a parallel reality, at least of some sort negotiations about the future settlement of the situation, i am now very careful in any wording between russia and ukraine. the fact is that if it were not for the war, the powers of the ukrainian president would have been exhausted, but the constitution of ukraine provides president volodymyr zelensky with his position. because martial law, because the war with the russian federation is ongoing. it seems to me that

everything is quite clear here, but the russian federation has never paid attention either to our constitution, or to any more or less ineffective documents of a global scale, already not talking about us, right? and they made it quite clear that for them president zelenskyi and the ukrainian government are not at all legitimate. here now in our country, for them both the previous governments and the previous president were not legitimate, they generally called them a junta, but they equated them with neo-nazis, less so, but do we consider vladimir putin a legitimate president of the russian federation? i don't, because i don't think that what happened and was called an election in russia was really an election, and the question is not even ... because there everything wrote as it should, to the current kremlin,

the issue is that the annexed ukrainian territories took part in the vote, and the fact that they are now temporarily effectively controlled by the russian federation does not in any way change the fact that russia wants to write as its constitution, but thereby, i think, completely delegalized. our own basic law, come on, i don't know, let's write some maldives into the ukrainian constitution and say that they are ours, well, what will our constitution turn into if we go there we shove whatever we want, russia doesn't care, russia doesn't care, they don't have a constitution, they don't have laws, they don't have anything, what should be contained in a state of law, russia should not be viewed through the prism of what in they have a government, there is a constitution, there are some

deputies, there is a state council, it should not be considered from the point of view of the rule of law at all, it is a state entity, well, you can say, even a terrorist state entity, which is waging war against a number of recognized under international law of states so i would at all i would not consider and would not break down their constitutional order, at least point by point, because it is absent, only tsar putin is present there. there is a certain vertical of power of the fsb, the gru, relatively speaking, all these international, actually recognized sanctioned persons, and here the question arises, really, how then to conduct any negotiations with such people at all, on the one hand, on the other hand, we understand , that

it is unlikely that this will ever change, well, putin, not putin, there will be a new putin, putin two. putin 3, putin 10, it doesn't matter. that's why we are talking, probably, about some certain intermediaries. but there is another situation, which is that many countries still recognize putin. well, for example, even the united states of america does not say that putin is illegitimate. for us, he may be illegitimate, but for many statesmen of the civilized world, he is the legitimate head of russia. that's it, period, yes, they say, we do not... this ship will not go anywhere if the majority of states do not have the strength in themselves, do not understand that the state formation of russia in its current form must be

dismantled, so what can be discussed next, then of course we have to play in such a case in this game. because, unfortunately, we do not set the rules here, the rules are set by those hegemon states that create world politics, at the expense of the fact that russia does not recognize our leadership, and i will explain why they do it, they do it, of course, first , to informationally delegitimize the ukrainian government, and secondly, even if they sign something in the future, they will say, i'm sorry, we didn't recognize them, we don't recognize these treaties, any treaties signed with russia, that's it for them it's just toilet paper, i'm sorry, which they can take and throw away and say: that's it, we, we don't reckon with these treaties, we're going to war again, that's why i say that in order to sign any armistice ,

any guarantees, any agreements, it doesn't matter at what point and in what form. it will happen, we must have our guarantees from the civilized world, because guarantees from russia , in principle, do not exist a priori, there can be no guarantees from putin, from medvedev, from shaigu or from patrushev, there are no guarantees from terrorists, gopniks, all, it's an axiom, so, so this, so this, this is a big problem that, so that we don't lay down, we have to work now on how... no matter what happens and i no matter what the situation is about the same negotiations, we must understand, we together with the western world, today we must lay the security foundation so that there will be no war in the future, because if it, because if people understand that there will be a war in the future, people will flee from ukraine, many people will say: oh, listen, well

, there is no guarantee, we will go, we will leave here, but even now many people are just... trying to flee there across the border, then it is another question, moral, the question of the legality of what they are doing, but they are leaving now, even given that that the borders are closed, if the borders are open and to say that i am sorry, there are no guarantees now that the war will not resume in a year, 2, 3, 5, 10, then people will start fleeing ukraine, this is the number one task for all of us, for the president, for the government, for the verkhovna rada. and the main thing is the task for the entire western civilization, if it wants ukraine to exist, for ukraine to be an independent state, for ukraine to be a subject and to be part of the civilized world, they must offer us such an option that will to testify that ukraine will be,

no one will attack ukraine, and ukraine will be a part of nato, a part of the european union. ukraine will receive all necessary funds for reconstruction, for the return of our citizens to ukraine, and russia will continue to bear responsibility for its actions. without each of these points, we will have a problem, problem, problem, problem, which is called in one general word: gray area, this cannot be allowed in any case. well, and as promised, now we will try to look at what is happening in france, and the first... tour the elections there show that the right gets 34%, the left - 29, and macron's party - 21. marine le pen's national association is in the lead. in the field they say that 34.2% of french people vote for him, in second place is the block of left parties new popular front,

which includes socialists, communists, environmentalists, so what, 29 and 10% voted for him, the party of the current president macron , revival and its allies, the block together win the support of 21.5% of voters, another 10% of french people vote for the republican. part of which may enter into an alliance with by the ultra-right, and the turnout in these elections is a record 68%, which is also a characteristic feature of this election process. more than 20 million, almost 21 million voters voted. france has a majoritarian system of parliamentary elections, and the second round is ahead, which will take place on july 7. the situation may change in principle. president macron , after the results of the elections to the european parliament, which were not very encouraging for him, announced that there would be elections to the national assembly, but, but i would like to point out that macron just had

a one-time and rather sharp reaction on what is happening in europe in general, on the trends that are now in the european union, the elections in the european parliament led to the fact that he announced the elections. in his own country, and uh, did he understand that he would find himself in a not too attractive situation for himself, i think so, but he still takes this step, why do you think, and macron wanted to act in advance, that is after seeing the results before the european parliament, macron thought that this would lay the groundwork for the presidential elections that will be held in 2027, we saw that, by the way, the percentage and... in the elections to the european parliament and in the elections to the europeans to the national parliament in marie le pen's party, it is approximately the same, 32, 34, 35%.

macron is convinced that they will still manage to turn the situation around in the second round, rightly or wrongly, but i think he believes at least that much. look, actually, he could say. i need to wait until the 27th year, i will calmly serve my term, even then, well, yes, that is, in fact, he has a majority in the current parliament the parliament, he has the presidential vertical, he controls everything, the parliamentary elections could be held in 27 together with the presidential elections, and accordingly everything, macron completes his second round, then, well, then, for example, marie le pen wins, or, for example, re... macron, conditionally speaking, tried to make sure that

such a development of events is now ahead of the presidential elections. whether he was wrong or not, i think it is too early to judge, why? i would not call the elections in france a complete victory for the national of the marine le pen front. they get really 34%, but 20, 29% gets the bloc of the left, that is , their votes are practically polarized, in france we see the absolute polarization of voters, and somewhere in the middle 20% are centrists, by the way, centrists, that's it, that the phenomenon that macron created, because in france there have never been centrists, in france there have always been right and there have always been left, they were just a little less right, less left, but... centrists, as a rule, have never been in france , macron created this phenomenon, but he as we can see, it has not completely taken root, but there is still this polarization, it is very important here what

the second round will be, the second round, we just have to understand what the electoral system is in france in general, it consists in the fact that all electoral districts are majoritarian, these percentages are simply, well, conditional for the general public... they are calculated in order to see trends, but they do not correspond to the number of mandates, because one candidate is elected in each district, that is, as of now , the national front won in france 34 candidates out of 577, the rest - 30, 28, if i'm not mistaken, these are the people who won from the left bloc, and only two candidates won from macron's party. we will see later, because in fact, both macron's party and the left are allegedly going to withdraw their candidates in those

constituencies. where, one of them will win, and here it can have a cumulative effect, so i won't say yet that marie le pen's party won completely, so there is a certain trend, so this trend shows that right-wing movements in europe every month and every year at least in the last five-year period, they are gaining big big results, they are gaining leads. why? europe has already had a similar experience, and we understand that historical processes, they very often have a spiral character, if you can say so, why exactly this trend appears again, well, first of all, we must understand here that right-wing movements, of course, this does not mean that they are fascists there, or are they that is, that is, let's not fall

into... such maximalism here and fall into such thoughts that it is supposed to be some, that it is some there the fascists, the hitlerites are leaving, this is absolutely not true, it is normal that there are leftists, there are centrists, there are rightists, there are different movements, and of course there is, for example, the same political force of the afd in germany, well, there is a slightly different question, there is marie le pen's party, which... is now slowly gravitating towards the center, but why are they recruiting? the reason lies in the absolutely wrong policy, which, unfortunately, some states in the european union pursued, and this policy was first of all built, most likely, on the reception of migrants, that is, these states received probably such a number of migrants that they could not master look, actually, accepting

migrants... it's not a completely negative thing there, it's just that every state has to understand, there's a certain limit, and there's a certain number of places that they can, a certain number of people that they can accept, because every migrant - this is also a responsibility, every migrant must, if he has arrived, socialize in this country, get housing, get a job, get a certain status. to integrate into this society, and in the beginning it really was like that, those waves of migrants, the first to arrive to great britain, to france, to germany, to sweden, to other countries, they, they integrated perfectly, they, some of them have now become politicians, some have become businessmen, some have become doctors, their children

have studied and they have become... full-fledged members of society, well, i am afraid that in this rhetoric, in principle, we have not gone into the wrong corner, because there are definitely successful cases, this is very important, and we can talk about it, but the position of the left, so let's try to illustrate it a little now yes, that position li i say, i say, i conclude what i say from the position of the left, that the original idea... was quite conscious, it was that people who, unfortunately, suffer from the troubles of various bits in their countries, could adapt, could come to those countries and become members of this society, i don't sure about becoming members of society, the left at least wanted it to happen, but the other question is whether it happened like this, it is about the fact that people who flee their countries find themselves conditionally,

now very conditionally ... i say there in the middle the ocean they have only a way forward, and to specific shores, and if these shores repel them, it very often means simply death for them, and europe has found itself, or rather, europe has been found, and we can talk about this too, this is a long-known fact, in a situation where it has or now to actually show, to demonstrate in practice these values ​​that one professes, or to think exclusively. from practical, well, some opinions, and how much we can take, how we can provide them, how much we can integrate, practice and values ​​ended up a little here, well, let's say this, on different on different, well completely planes, in different planes, but europe was brought to this naturally, let's say, step by step and...