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a project for smart and caring people, in the evening at espresso. the verkhovna rada regularly passes new laws, but how do these changes affect our lives? we have analyzed the new decrees to inform you about the latest changes in ukrainian legislation. how do legislative norms change our lives, what should we prepare for? leading lawyers of the bar association will answer these and other questions that concern ukrainians. watch every tuesday at 7:55 in the program legal expertise on espresso tv channels. we are coming back. thank you for donating, because we can see that now it can be in small portions, but still the amount in the account is increasing, and still we hope that we will be able to reach at least half of the required amount, to... collect today,

less than 1000 already it remains until this very small goal of ours, so for today, so please be active and donate as much as you can. in the meantime, we will ask about what is happening in the country and what is very important today for us, our next guest, a political expert and the journalist, vadym denysenko, is in touch with us, mr. vadym, we welcome you, thank you for being with us, i congratulate you. mr. vadim, at first i wanted to ask you about such global initiatives, there is a big gathering in kazakhstan called the shos summit, within the framework of which a very interesting ping-pong game took place yesterday, that is , erdogan and putin talked, erdogan talked about some mystical formula for peace, he did not made it public, said that he was proposing, this morning from the kremlin he was told no, that is, we have such a peace formula. because of erdoğan, e is not

interested in e, what it was and e, can decipher it this two-day game? well, in principle, first of all , we must understand that at the present moment , a large number of politicians will appear who will try to become mediators in theoretically possible negotiations between. russia and ukraine, i will repeat the word theoretically possible, because for now, of course, we are talking only in theory, and so far it is still very far from the actual negotiation process, but viktor orban's visit to ukraine a few days ago, then erdogan's statement, that's all an attempt to make applications for what this or that politician wants to become mediator or one of the mediators in the negotiation process. and each of them

pursues not only, not so much ukrainian or russian goals, but definitely, both of them, and erdogan, and orbán, by the way, have their own internal goals. pretty serious domestic problems, because both lost essentially local elections to their opponents, and both have global problems ahead of key national elections coming up, and in fact, each of them believes that because of their position, because of their position as a negotiator, that they theoretically they can get, they can solve their internal problems, so it is from this point of view that you have to look at both orbán and erdogan. and i will repeat myself, i believe that now we will have, like mushrooms after the rain , new and new politicians will appear who will offer their mediating functions, if we talk about the relationship between putin and erdogan, at the moment they are in enough low phase, that is, they

are in a rather difficult position, and there are quite a few reasons for this, in particular , putin understands that at the moment everything that could be taken from turkey, he has already taken, he can no longer take anything new from turkey, and therefore from this point of view he understands that the turkish side will not be able to oppose him in particular anything now, because the turks are making money from the turkish company huge money in this war. turkey is one of the five-six biggest beneficiaries of the war between ukraine and russia, and it is unlikely that it will be able to give it up, so putin can show his eh. positions and display your wishes or not wishes, and a plus, let's not forget that putin perfectly understands that turkey is his main competitor in the black sea region, turkey is his main gas competitor in the black sea region, and

more widely even from central asia, starting with the transit central asia, europe, turkey is the main competitor of the russian federation . on the construction of an alternative land route, the silk road, which is proposed by china, because now there is only one route, it is china, russia and belarus, now, as a matter of fact, the chinese are trying to build, they are not trying, but they have started the construction of a bypass second route through turkey and further to greece and further to the south of europe, therefore, from this point of view, putin does not need the strengthening of turkey in any case , putin does not need it. strong strong regional player turkey and a player who in principle essentially becomes dominant in the caucasus, i.e. now there is a big war between turkey and russia precisely for who will dominate in the caucasus, and dominance in the caucasus is basically control of

the north-south route , about which few people in ukraine generally speak. actually, this whole set of things led to the corresponding reaction putin on er. let's say this, erdogan's application that he wants to become a mediator in the russian-ukrainian war, the solution to the issue of the russian-ukrainian war. mr. vadim, that is, do you think that each of them plays independently, or can there still be a single director among all those representatives, people who propose their own peace plans, talk about some kind of just peace, in their opinion, these are different campaigns , and not just one... directed by someone else, look, there can only be two directors countries, this is china, this is a combination of american states, that is, everyone else can be assistant directors, assistant directors, editors, operators, sound engineers, and so on and so forth, now, in principle, neither the united states

nor china show any directorial ambitions, that is they are basically making certain moves, they are doing... intelligence, they are doing, they are looking at certain processes, but so far it has not come to directing, so from this point of view, both erdogan and orbán are playing preemption in order to try to cover the places with parasols, or in in this particular case, the place of mediators, because it has already become clear that there will not be a single mediator here, there will be a pool of countries that will act as one. and on the other hand, if it comes to negotiations, they will, as a matter of fact, agree on certain things, that is, everyone understands that the one who becomes the main mediator will hit the jackpot in the geopolitical game of his country and in his personal game, as both inside the country and

outside, so the stakes here are high enough for a large number of politicians in the world. sir vadim, why did such a large number of publications by influential western publications such as... it is difficult to imagine such an agreement being coordinated, because in addition to quotes from presidential candidate trump about quick peace at the cost of ukraine's territorial losses, the huge number of these publications, which.. . on such and such, on such and such a ceasefire formula, well, and and and, do you also see in this some kind of coordination of these publications, because somehow, behind the brackets remain all these answers that come from the bank, then and in general, we know the mood of the ukrainian community and the armed forces of ukraine, that no one wants to go to a ceasefire at any price for the purchased lands, and it will happen again the next day, the next publications, what? it's like this, well, in principle, the world started

talking about elections, about negotiations, so if they started talking about negotiations, if edition x wrote about the fact that negotiations are such and such a formula for peace, then edition i, of course, will try to find another a politician who will tell him his version of the peace formula, such a reaction, yes, definitely, definitely, that is if... you understand that you need to outrun your opponent in principle, i mean in this case the other zmi, then of course you will try to outrun him with exactly such methods, and you will do it, so from this point of view we we just have to understand for the time being that no one has such a formula for peace at all, we have to understand that everything donald trump says has shaken this whole story, certainly the debate in the united states of america, after that many people talked about that biden has no chance of winning, but

so we need to look for a peace formula from trump. trump, there is no such formula for peace at the moment, we must understand that too. his formula for peace boils down to the fact that i, as a magician, will solve everything in two days, and what will lie in this solution, so far, i think that trump himself does not fully understand, and his advisers rely on an article that.. .came in the highly influential issue of foreign affairs in november 2023, where two respected authors wrote, or rather, that a solution to the problem could be a formula that it involves the cessation of hostilities along the front line, the buffer zone, refusal to join nato, and , strictly speaking, ukraine. receives some incomprehensible guarantees of peace and yes, the lifting

of sanctions, as a matter of fact, all the current peace formulas that we see one way or another dance around this, mr. vadim, this is actually a short summary of putin's plans, that's what you listed , this is actually putin's version, well, look, i'm telling you that it appeared in november 2000. of the 23rd year, actually after this article, if we let's look at the chronology, the russians suddenly announced that they need to create a buffer, that they are attacking kharkiv, because it is necessary to create a buffer zone in the east of ukraine, or there in the west of the russian federation, in the southwest, so that the ukrainians cannot fire at belgrade there and so on, that is, from this point of view, yes, they played ahead of the curve in many respects. yes, that's why, er, the russians obviously still throw in a

number of peace formulas from various politicians, when these politicians probably don't even know about the fact that they proposed this peace formula, but we must also understand that we, first of all, we must not react to every sneeze, that is , every sneeze does not mean that it is a state, it is already like an accomplished fact, on the other hand, we must also understand that trump's victory in november. in the presidential elections, it can lead to a number of things that will in principle increase, that will increase the pressure on ukraine. ugh. thank you for the answers. vadym denysenko, a political expert and journalist, was with us and they talked about the one who would like to be a mediator in establishing peace, actually bite this big kush and become one. leader, let's move on, now we will talk a little about economic affairs, actually they report

that the dollar again after these fluctuations, growth to a maximum, then a small drop, went up again, and yes, as experts say, this trend will continue, all this primarily related to the arrival or non-arrival of american currency on the ukrainian market, according to the aid. we will receive from our western partners, let's ask all this from the economist and member of the economic discussion club oleg penzyn, mr. oleg, good day, good day. to see you sincerely, here is oksana, now about this is something that worries you deep in the back, and how much is that dollar, maybe you can tell us about these swings, forecasts have already been laid, we hear about tranches, about aid, about what was agreed, and something will come, and how will it affect the lives of ordinary ukrainians in the rear and their

ability to contribute, of course, well, today, so you understand, the dollar started a little with... the hryvnia to strengthen a little wholesale batches at exchangers, so those swings, they actually take place under the control of the national bank of ukraine. you and i do not have a foreign exchange market, what is a foreign exchange market, it is when a bunch of people sell a dollar, and a bunch of people buy a dollar, and as a result of these interesting transactions, an exchange rate is formed, this is a market, and when a bunch buys from us and only one sells, and the name of this one, who sells on... the national bank of ukraine, and he is both a market operator and a market regulator, that is, he himself determines the rules of the game and plays by them himself, cool conditions, because of what we are talking about now, what market, and the fact that the dollar has weakened a little now, the hryvnia has weakened, well, listen, we are opening the budget for the 24th year, we are looking at the average annual exchange rate of 40.7, we have

june month, in june an average annual rate of 4.7 was reached, at the beginning of the year it was a little less. at the end of the year, there will probably be a little more, so that on average it will be 4.7 per year, so there are no surprises in this situation, everything is within the budget , even lower, and now about these imbalances in at least when you read any messages related to economic life in ukraine, there is a kind of double perception, more and more guaranteed tranches after. we receive the imf as part of the aid of the big seven and as part of other financial and military financial programs. these amounts are quite round and large. and at the same time, we are immediately told that no, after all, we will have to raise both tariffs and excise taxes, there is no other way. well, at least

i quoted danylo gitmantsev to you. well, somehow it is difficult to perceive by people who are not immersed in the economy and in money, that... so much money is flowing to us, and such are the tendencies of the government to freeze the social security and also to start raising all this, well, look, uh, when we talk about the social security with you, then it is financed today exclusively by macro-financial assistance, and in order for us to fully finance social security this year, we need... 37.5 billion dollars, and what they come in is just the amount that is needed to finance public servants, doctors, teachers, to finance civil servants, which is not security, defense, to finance pensioners, social benefits, that is, we really need 37.5 billion dollars a year, well, this is not a joke, it is

a huge amount, and what we hear from time to time is exactly the filling of these 37.5 billion, we want war '. in fact, exclusively from the revenues of our budget, and they are not enough, they are not enough, when mr. gedmantsev says something about the lack of money, he means exclusively the issue of defense security. with you and me, one mobilized man costs 1 million 100 thousand 1300 thousand uah from the budget per year, in our budget we have 1.7 trillion, well, do the math, that is, if you and i begin to calculate that we need to mobilize additionally. 400,000 people, for example, for us, well, for 300, let it be even, we need at least half a trillion additional money there, they are not there, but actually this money is not there, there is no money for security, defense, and the fact that our partners help us military-technical aid, they don't give money to the budget for military-technical things, they provide us with weapons, they provide us with ammunition, but the money maintenance

comes from the budget, won't the boys fight for free in our country, right? and actually food goes there and everything that is purchased, money from the budget is needed, so there are no contradictions here, it is so in reality, and by the way, they recently adopted the budget declaration for the next year, well, from the 25th to the 27th and year, then the expenses for security and defense are 2.2% compared to this year's 1.7%, that is , in order to fulfill 2.2%, we need to... meetings, this is to fulfill 2.2, today 1.7, so there is really not enough money and what... they are going to raise taxes, probably, by the way, in this budget declaration, which i am talking about, it is expected that every year, the tax burden on

the economy of ukraine will increase by uah 350 billion, that is, next year uah 350 billion plus compared to this year, in 26- 350 billion plus compared to the 25th year, fine, but in our country, it’s the same... the growth of business entities, i.e. taxpayers, also correlates with this, and the government also stimulates the growth of e-e in breadth, in length and fat percentage. listen, uh, when we take a close look at the list of those uh taxes they want impose on us, er, then, let's be honest, there is no business tax, it's all taxes on you and me. of what come on, uh, military service who? business pays, no, you and i, personal income tax, which is planned to be made progressive, who will pay, we, er, excise tax, who pays, business, no,

we pay excise tax, value added tax, who pays , business, no, we pay, and the increase in value added tax from 20 to 23 will simply increase the price for you and me in stores for goods and services, by the way, very interesting moment, you and i... according to this budget declaration , social standards will not change for the next three years, i.e. uah 800 minimum wage, as it was and is, and the subsistence minimum will not change, and only in the 25th 10% inflation is expected this year. well, you and i all basically studied mathematics in school, right? when your income doesn't change and prices go up by 10%, what happens to your real income? they fall. so, actually, i think that the 24th year was the last year when we indexed social expenditures, i think that in the following years, we will have a freeze on

social spending. mr. oleg, we literally have one and a half minutes, and there is another question, whether what is currently being written about, at least, such a trend, that there is a part of conscripts who are officially employed, are being released, will have an impact, the time is approaching when the data needs to be updated, we understand . that enterprises must also submit this information further and control it, accordingly, there is a part of people who take away documents and either get fired or decide in some other way whether it will affect economy, or are these not significant volumes? there is, and until there is no economic reservation, we will have such a problem, until there is no economic reservation, business will look for opportunities to save people, and people will go into the shadows, economy. not a reservation - it's not just someone's wish, it's the reality of today, it's a mechanism to allocate additional funds to the state budget. look, the main

part of the money that the security-defense budget spends on today is the maintenance of the boys. tell me please, will they fight for free? no, they won't. where to get money? print? if money is printed, as it was in the 22nd. you and i will have a huge collapse of the hryvnia exchange rate, we will have a huge drop in real incomes, even worse, so the domino effect begins, so not very optimistic, but true, thank you mr. oleg, oleg penzyn was with us, economist and member of the economic discussion club, don't miss the news in a few minutes, iryna koval will talk about the most important things, and we know for sure, which has fresh information from dnipropetrovsk region. there are discounts representing the only discounts on edem 20% in travel pharmacies for you and savings. attention, a profitable offer:

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it's 11 o'clock in ukraine, news time on the espresso tv channel, in the studio of iryna koval, i greet all viewers and just now i'll tell you about the most important events. the battle for... during yar , ukrainian troops retreated from part of the city, this was confirmed by the spokesman of the khortyts operational-strategic command , nazar voloshyn, radio svoboda reports. he noted that it is about the kanal microdistrict. it was not expedient to keep him in the future, because all the positions of the ukrainian defenders were destroyed by the occupiers - voloshyn explained. this district.