of the large-scale war , it was possible to return more than 3,200 ukrainian soldiers from enemy captivity. all of them are exhausted, tired, but unconquered. unfortunately, many of our soldiers died at the hands of putin's terrorists. in particular, we will always remember pavel sukhanov with the call sign mekhan, andrii zinchenko, a fireman, yuriy shkaruba, a stalker, and andrii polusmak with the call sign afgan, who died in that terrible battle in april. 2022 in the village of borova. olena boyko, oleksandr kuga, espresso bila tserkva. congratulations, friends, the saturday program is on the air political club, andrii smolii and vitaly portnikov, traditionally. saturday, we are talking

about the most important events of this week, which are important for ukraine and the world, and today is the second week in a row, in a slightly updated format, without guests, we will talk with vitaly kortnikov, to ourselves, we will talk, we will analyze, we will discuss these, actually the most important topics, and what topics do we have? in general, they disturb society, they disturb the whole country, of course, this is also what putin once again said, and orban's arrival in ukraine, and then to russia, the elections in great britain, we will certainly discuss it, because it is important, and we will discuss again, of course, the elections in the united states of america, because it is very important, and there are many other topics. and not

only all this will happen within the next two hours until 21. well, the first block of our discussion is still military, it will also concern the nato summit and those statements by putin that we are talking about the nato summit, which, by the way, will take place next week, mr. vitaly, what should we expect from this nato summit, as far as i understand, from those statements that we have, a breakthrough, it is clear that there will not be, and yet, perhaps there will be some nuances that can be considered important for our country, or will there be nothing? i don't think there will be anything, nato can't afford anything, so obviously they will take certain steps that should convince others that ukraine will be a member of nato, but it seems to me that... the main topic is not just membership in

nato as such, first of all a guarantee of security, and it is precisely about the guarantee of security that we have to talk about, because by and large i i consider it a completely frivolous situation that we discuss from time to time, when we discuss with western politicians how effectively ukraine can fight russia, well , of course, if we get more weapons, we will have f-16 planes, we have "some new weapon will appear, we can russia, at least stop it in offensive actions, at least start some new offensive actions of our own, but let's imagine that we were there for 3-4, 5 months, we got all this, used it, stopped it, they stopped . we

even conquered some new territories they returned, which were under their occupation, and then three or four months later the elections for the president of the united states took place, donald trump became president, or even not donald trump, and joseph biden became president, and the republicans are the majority in the congress, they start their time-dragging again , for another six months, they dragged it out for another six months, then they gave it to us again. weapons, we stopped them somewhere again, they stopped again, restored something, got something, some north korean shells went off again, how long should this continue, where is the end that we we want to see at the end of this tunnel, that is, the end of the exhaustion of russia, but again, if this happens solely from the point of view of... how much the west is ready

to effectively help us, and not only the west, but also the united states, however, the main thing is the united states, this depletion can be sporadic, today it is depleted, and tomorrow it is not depleted, it restores potency again. and then it turns out that we have to pay attention to every parliamentary and presidential election in every country in nato, that is in france now tomorrow these parliamentary elections, which you and i are also going to talk about, came to power, let's say the national union party, marine le pen, it was forbidden, as mrs. marine already says, to strike with french weapons on the territory of russia, the day after tomorrow. some elections were held in germany, because a coalition was formed there, they agreed on a coalition with some other participants and they say that ukraine needs to be helped, but with such a limitation, and again, that means we don't know what we can do, what we can't do, i.e. cannot continue ad infinitum, that is why i

say that my formula, i think it is more logical, is to provide ukraine with effective security guarantees, that is, the measure must be determined. that it cannot happen as it is, the west must realize for itself how to end this war, i believe that this war can be ended, let's say , finally, when ukraine receives effective security guarantees and becomes a member of nato. in all other conditions, well, you ended the war, well , you even received some kind of treaty with russia, well , let's imagine, a treaty about us. recorded even there is some kind of conflict line or even a state border, who will believe it? well, that is, a certain number of people will decide: well, we will live in a neutral country or in a country that is a candidate for nato membership, but will not join nato until some

transition period has passed there, will you feel safe? no, of course, by the way, i also say this, just like you, and to people with whom i communicate and on the air, i say the same thing, that is, i similarly understand that without guarantees from nato and from united states of america, in such a situation, ukraine will simply turn into a conditional gray zone, of course, but not just a gray zone, a zone in which war can start at any moment. this is not exactly neutrality, you see, we have examples of neutrality in europe, right? well, i don't think that we will now discuss the example of the neutrality of the swiss confederation, huh, but because it is simply surrounded on all sides by western powers, it always was, and after the second world war, and

during the second world war , germany did not attack it , this is such neutrality conditional because germany simply decided that it needed to retain swiss statehood. in their political goals, but imagine if they had decided that it was worth not leaving, neutrality would have helped switzerland, i am not sure, there could have been such a lock-up with austria, well, this stage has already been passed, but austria is another neutral state, well today it is also surrounded from all sides by nato member countries, but there was a period in its history when it was neutral, but the warsaw pact ee... was on its border, czechoslovakia, hungary, that is, the soviet union could theoretically attack it, and it turns out that it lived under the guarantees of neutrality from the allies during the second world war, but this was the situation after the second world war, that's how they decided west germany under the

allied security protectorate, east germany under under the security protectorate of the soviet union, and austria under the joint security protectorate, that's how it got. because the soviet union perfectly understood that if it attacked austria in this situation, it would destroy the entire architecture of european security, including the recognition of its own sphere of influence, because this is not just the neutrality of austria, it is the recognition of the russian soviet influence in poland, czechoslovakia, hungary, bulgaria, romania, that is, this is a package, do you understand? and with this package, austria was able to survive until the collapse of the soviet union and until the moment when it was finally separated from russia by the border of the countries of central europe. and how can we get such a package of guarantees? how can we, if we have a border with russia, decide that it belongs to us

will not attack next time, because again , no interstate agreement is a guarantee here. we had an interstate agreement with russia. the big contract was signed by the presidents. boris yeltsin and leonid kuchma. i well remember how yeltsin was expected in kyiv. it was simply and such an expectation as the most important event, precisely because the ukrainian leadership believed that... if he signs this treaty, it basically guarantees ukraine security and sovereignty, if russia considers us an independent sovereign state, recognizes our territorial integrity, that which still has to wait, because all other states have no doubts about ukrainian statehood, and yeltsin did not just sign this agreement, he also signed another agreement, he did not sign it, but in his presence they signed about... of the black sea fleet in sevastopol, and, by the way,

the fact that yeltsin refused to come and sign a large agreement without this agreement on the black sea fleet could somehow make someone think, this was their main condition: first the fleet, then the big agreement, that is why, in principle, the agreement on the fleet is not what it could have been, even at that stage, that is, we squeezed everything we could out of it, but president leonid kuchma was so interested in yeltsin's arrival that he pressed not only for the russian delegation, but not for his own, yevgeny marchuk found it difficult to speak with oleg soskovets, the head of the russian delegation, because he saw how the president of ukraine was interested in the imminent arrival of the president of the russian federation, here is an example for you, that is, we let's get to what else option apart from covering the territory we control with a nato umbrella, we do not have

any other security agreement, no matter how it sounds there, it may not be implemented a priori, of course, we need not just an umbrella, but what russia recognized the right to this umbrella, so she agreed to this, plus, we understand very well that any country that does not give us such a guarantee... may change the government, that is, this treaty, it must be absolute in execution, i see now the only such contract this is the agreement on the north atlantic alliance, where a large number of states can be such guarantors, a collective, collective agreement, and if it is an agreement, let's say, between ukraine and the united states of america, but trump comes to power, well conditionally, and says i don't like it . then this thing just might not work, well, if it is ratified by the congress, it will work for anyone, but we understand

that it is very difficult to imagine such a treaty on strategic partnership or on strategic defense at the moment, well look, trump's team is now thinking about how, in principle, to remove themselves from the risk in europe in general, uh, they started talking about some kind of two-tier nato, that the nuclear umbrella will remain, the american in... they will leave europe, you understand that for such countries as russia, this is a sign of weakness, they began to say that those countries that fully pay into the nato budget, the united states will protect them in case of an attack, and those that do not fully pay into the budget will not defend that the fifth article, as they believe, does not guarantee the need for mandatory protection, if they make such arguments in the event of donald trump's return to the white house, the question will arise as to how effective nato is as a guarantee. can actually lead to the collapse of the nato system itself, to the very foundation

on which nato stands, because if there is selective protection or, for example, 2% at first, and then they say three, well, look, we have to really understand that donald trump, as a person, as a politician, is interested in destroying the international system security, there is no need for any illusions again, he didn't hide it last time, it just didn't work out for him, because he... fought not only with the international system, but also with the american one, and he couldn't get rid of those advisers for a long time , who were actively against it, now it can be completely different, and now this international security system can be reformatted quite quickly, that is , he really can not withdraw from nato, but actually create the conditions under which american commitments to nato will be fake, and to try to transfer, let's say, the level of security to the middle east and the pacific. a region where it may not be perceived the way they think, because they may believe that the american withdrawal from europe will

mean that america can be smoked from anywhere if uncomfortable conditions are created for it, so putin started a war against ukraine , and the americans got out of europe away from sin, so in order to smoke the americans, it is necessary to continue some kind of actions that will encourage them to engage, korean peninsula, middle east. the asia-texas region, this is such an ideal situation of pearl harbor, that is, you do not want to participate in european affairs and you are struck from another direction where you do not ... expect to be struck, because you are sure that if you leave europe , then you concentrated all your forces in another direction, in fact, leaving europe is perceived as a sign of weakness, by and large, this is how the axis powers perceived the united states during the second world war, that since the americans do not want to participate in the defense europe and follow an isolationist approach to politics, it means that they

are afraid that they are not able to defend themselves, they are weak, you can beat them, they will go everywhere instead, it was... a wrong assessment, but in any case it was worth it the lives of thousands of american young men, this can happen again now, in principle, i believe that, but with all this, trump says that it is his coming to power that will stop any wars in the world, you understand, that is, as far as we can see these double standards, with one parties, we observe preparations for the complete leveling of international law and, conditionally speaking, the nato charter, among other things. trump says: listen, well, i will come, all wars will end, there will be peace in the whole world. well, i think that trump is just convinced that he should be feared for some reason, one, uh, and two, that he can, shall we say, buy mir-2, that he can offer dictators such favorable terms that, in principle, put

an end to their ambitions. i don't think that will happen. first of all, i think trump is a completely unrealistic thinking person, well you know, trump supporters can think to themselves, say whatever they want, but we see and hear everything, we see a person who, in principle, is unable to formulate an opinion, well, simply unable to formulate an opinion, but this is reality, you can talk as much as you want about president biden, that he is old, that he is whispering, that he is not feeling well, but when biden speaks, he speaks in complete sentences, trump does not speak in complete sentences, that he is unable to formulate an opinion, just purely mentally, i understand, that to many people who he is voted for by those who themselves are unable to formulate an opinion, this seems normal, because a huge number of people in our world are not able to clearly formulate an opinion, firstly, because they do not think, secondly, when they think, they are confused in their thoughts, because there is no appropriate, i would say mental background, but this is reality, so

to say that trump knows exactly what he is going to do when he jumps from thought to thought for a few minutes. we can't, well again, it's not a situation where we 're waiting for something we haven't seen, we've seen trump with a kimchan, they saw how trump came to the second meeting, not understanding why, then he decided that there would be business, then he told them to do business, there will be no business, you are behaving badly, and all this looked like absolute oligophrenia, i’ll be honest, well and it's political, and it can happen again, so... again, i'm sure that trump is not underestimating putin and xi jinping, once. secondly, he overestimates himself. two. third, i believe that a person with the, i would say, absolutely incredible ego that donald trump has, is capable of taking real offense when it comes to

his, so to speak, well, how to say it, about his idea of ​​how to develop. this is the international order, he can be offended and he can answer somewhere in a way that putin never dreamed of, but there is another problem: trump is united with putin so that trump is ready to disregard international law. here are all these conversations that he will give putin something, that putin will want for the sake of peace, which means quite a simple thing that he will agree to the possibility of a change of government. borders in exchange for peace in europe, but changing state borders in exchange for peace is always a new war, because in in principle, we are entering a new reality that if you can seize something from another state and gain a foothold there, it does not matter what you say, all these historical reminiscences that putin operates with do not have any significance in relation to international law, the more

so we see that they can change, there were russians in crimea, and everyone said, because you see, there are already russians there, in the kherson region there are ukrainians, but we will declare them russians, well listen, it's like kosovo and serbian, kosovo is the ancient land of the serbian people , fact, that's why it belongs to us, not that that according to international law, because it is serbian, and the albanians who think otherwise, we will expel them, well, this is also an approach, we understand, that is, it is always a question of what we are talking about, about the principle of international law, about the guarantee safety of the population living in one or another territory is also important. true, we will remember karabakh, azerbaijan has restored its territorial integrity, absolutely internationally recognized, but by the complete eviction of the population that lived in this territory, at the moment. well, international law is when you restore borders state, but you give opportunities to the people who just live there to the ordinary civilian population, security guarantees to live

where they are, it is not otherwise, well, in normal international law, now we live in a completely different international law, as you can see, that is, this also very important, the important situation we have to talk about, i do not believe that he will be able to pay off with putin there, because to believe... that trump can pay off with putin four ukrainian regions and crimea, is to agree with the fact that that this is exactly what putin needs, this is why he is waging war, but we understand that this is all a coincidence, all these territories are a coincidence, it's just that in 2013 putin managed to gain a foothold in the donetsk and luhansk regions, and not in the kharkiv and odesa regions , because for various reasons, but also for the reasons of the corruption of donbas and the connection of its clans , there is more of yanukovych, yefreimov tsikhanov, and moscow. more serious than in odesa and kharkiv regions, precisely because, not because russian people live there, some other people live in odesa and kharkiv, the same people live everywhere, it’s just that there was a power vertical there, sharpened much more near moscow, and in the kherson and

zaporizhia regions, he was simply able to occupy these pieces of territory, but let’s imagine that he would have paid off not there, in the mykolaiv region and odesa, but in the kherson and zaporizhia regions, let’s say there zaporizhzhia would not be luhansk, they would not be under his control, well, that's how he would like this region, it's not... related to the population, it's simply related to certain territories where he managed to gain a foothold , well, if we simply believe that brute force exists a sign of some kind of population rights, this seems to me to be a very dangerous approach. we have to take a short break, and in a few minutes we will continue this topic, and of course we will talk about orban's visit to kyiv and moscow. don't switch. oh, i remember, you see, although they say that our memory weakens with age, but i am attentive and remember everything, we take the memo effect from dr. tice and feel

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exclusively on the air of our channel, congratulations, friends, on the air of the political club on the espresso tv channel, the most relevant topics of the week: russia's war against ukraine, the war in the middle east, the crisis on the border between moscow and other cities of russia. analysis of processes, other cities of ukraine, drone attacks , how they change the country and each of us. the country should get the right to start negotiations on joining the eu. vitaly portnikov and guests of the project: we are bored because there is nothing to do to quarrel they help to understand the present and the forecast. a project for those who care and think politclub every sunday at 20:10 at espresso. saturday politics club, live

ether, and we continue our discussion. orban came to ukraine this week, then flew to moscow. in ukraine, he met with the president of ukraine, volodymyr zelenskyi. orbán offered peace again, offered a ceasefire. whereupon. he flew to moscow, met with putin there, and basically said the same thing. many people are talking about this week, and this is probably one of the top topics for discussion, after all, why did orban come to kyiv, then come to moscow, what was the meaning of these visits, or was it, relatively speaking, his personal position in order to show off, consolidate your

status or? after all, he could pass on some information or carry out an exchange between , let's say, some positions between the ukrainian and russian authorities and vice versa? i do not think that orbán is the kind of person who is engaged in shuttle diplomacy, first of all , scientific diplomacy does not provide for such open format with press conferences and statements that it became clear to me that there are very deep disagreements between moscow and kyiv regarding the end of the lash. by and large , it must be said that in this situation there are no real possibilities in how such diplomacy looks in principle, i believe that there are many other reasons, these reasons are connected with the fact that, as you and i understand, orban plays

a pretty serious game. connected with, not only with their positions in europe, what is the point of this game? well, it is almost simultaneously with by the formulation of this agenda, this visit created a group in the european parliament, which is increasing and increasing every day because of the work in... the european parliament, and i think that it will soon be necessary in it, the party, the seventh, this is absolutely obvious such a moment, xi jinping was a guest of orbán, it is obvious that during this visit of the chinese leader to the hungarian capital , the situation related to the presence of, let's say, the hungarian

prime minister, if not in moscow, could also be discussed. in kyiv, because in principle what orban is saying is very similar to the chinese proposals, not so much to the russian ones, you see that putin keeps repeating the same thing all the time , that the condition for a ceasefire should be the withdrawal of ukrainian troops from donetsk, luhansk , kherson, zaporizhzhia regions. and china or hungary are talking about a simple ceasefire on the demarcation line, they don't demand that we leave somewhere there or that the russians leave somewhere, they just say you stand here, you have it here. to stop the fire, and this is also absolutely obvious the moment we are needed, we also need to understand, another moment is that these are the trips, here is the meeting, orban's trip to marola to trump, orban's meeting to sidzenpin in budapest, orban's trip to moscow to putin, together with a trip to...

they have to convince politicians, european, far-right, let's say, or just populists, that there can be such a model of existence that you can meet with trump and putin and sidzenpin and be a fairly respectable politician in europe, and even zelensky will meet you in kyiv, going nowhere, so to speak. this is the model of what i call chinese europe, not russian. europe, which basically consists of countries that aspire to be members of the european union and even nato, not all of them, but nato also has a certain part there, because austria is not in nato, and serbia is not in nato, and they are not going there. ot. a europe that hopes for chinese investment, a europe that wants to keep in touch with the united states, but with america.