there is no such guarantee, but imagine that you are trump, and you need to promise putin something so that putin knows for sure that sooner or later, when he wants, or when the conditions are created, or when he gathers his strength again, he will be able to occupy ukraine , what is the guarantee, well , there is no guarantee, but it is equally important for putin to win a certain period of time for himself, if he thinks that he needs a time period, or maybe he thinks that he needs to conduct the war better, maybe we don't know. what is in the head, and what will be in head by the end of the year, if we say that putin has a third term, then he will be looking for it now, why does he need trump for this? he may believe that it is easier for him to agree with biden on some kind of suspension of the war than with trump, and you think that it is easier to agree with biden, i say, as putin may think, in theory, i think so, because trump is absolutely not predicted, trump already, putin also already knows that trump is not predicted, and biden is predicted, he will not do anything at least until the end of his presidency.

ugh, putin will have this time and then talk to trump, so what? well, that is, there is a question, but again, putin may believe that, on the contrary, he should continue military actions, i am not asking you about putin, i am asking you about trump, you are trump and you need to guarantee something to putin, that it should be, nothing , you see, they're just words, they're just words, you've got one, i can tell you what? i have an answer to this question, you must give ukraine under my control, no, not four regions, but completely, yes, completely, that is, ensure that on the head of ukraine had some kind of power, well, which will be pro-russian, but this power must be chosen by the ukrainian people, well, that's the problem, of course, that is, yes, in theory, trump can, as much as he imagines. to make

ukraine or to try to make ukraine such a laying of a gray area. viktor medvedchuk, no, volodymyr tseni, but who? if ukraine is a gray area, then in theory putin and maybe in theory trump will think to themselves that in this case it will be easier for the ukrainian people to promote such a candidate. often the president should hold elections and on who will run for the person who will be considered loyal to putin, and the people must choose her, who this person is, well, it doesn't matter, we will find a person, well, the person is their person x, and x aristovych, he seems to be x aristovych, it does not matter, anyone, such a person can always be swayed by anything, but how to elect him, you

have experimented with all this, he is elected, putin says: he is a wonderful person, vote for trump, he says, they vote for a wonderful person, and they vote for another person, what should we do next that's the whole story, you see, adolf hitler had a great plan, i have in czechoslovakia, he didn't just capture the sudetenland, but actually created the conditions for the resignation of the president of czechoslovakia. eduard benish, who simply left the country, he went to london, and milhach became the third president of czechoslovakia, whom even the czechs do not mention, but i have seen many cases when the czechs believe that they had no president between benish and gottwald, this is not a question of historical fact, i'm afraid that they teach in school that there was they are simply at the level of mentality, you want to, you know, as it happens, cross out that there was a third president of pre-war czechoslovakia, there were not two, but three of them. emil gaha, who... was going to

hitler and hitler told him: if you don't sign now that this is a protectorate, bohemia and moravia, i will be there now and will bombard prague. and gakha had a heart attack, he was not going to sign after anything, by the way, but he got scared and signed after this attack. now imagine that it is benes. and he talks to hitler, i really i'm sorry, i'll just announce my resignation, and i'll sign it on... but hitler doesn't need that, he needs to be signed, you see, and the same story, by the way, was with crimea when they elected as the head of the council of ministers, aksyonov, whom they were preparing to groundhog all these gubigabists for such a role, but before that, they elected him to the parliaments in the main council of ministers of crimea at gunpoint and coordinated it with pseudo-president yanukovych, do you remember, and if it is not there, how to ensure it? trump cannot do it

to ensure, you see, in fact, no one can provide it, no one can 100% guarantee that it will be so, so or so. we are talking about solving the palestinian problem, and most of the palestinian civilians in the gas sector support hamas, and everyone says: what kind of leader is he, let's release mirwan barghouti from prison, let him be the leader, well, what if they don't support him , well, you talk to them, talk to a certain mahmoud abbas, consult with them, something... you agree, but the majority of the population does not it is considered legitimate, and if the majority of the population wants to fight with israel, to blow up some shaheedz belts there, agrees with the propaganda of hamas, and not with those palestinian leaders who say that we need to somehow come to an agreement with israel, then what is the point of these

leaders, and this is a story when israel can enter and withdraw its troops, which means that this requires not only control, but also the presence of russian troops. here in kyiv, so that it would be a nominal ukrainian state, so that he would stand at the polling station a russian soldier, and i say to you: andriy, please vote for comrade medvedchuk, vladimir vladimirovich, neither do i , listen, and i am not joking, this is exactly how i talked with russian officials there after the obra was elected yanukovych, and they told me, do you know who will be the next president of ukraine, who is medvedchuk, and listen, and what do you say? and they tell me, what does it matter, when volodymyr volodymyrovych decided so, they have such an idea about politics, maybe trump has the same, some kind of state, some other bantustan, depends on our money and weapons, whoever i say, they take it, well, you see

trump, his eyes are, i would say, blinking, and that's what they will both... do when they all meet , dossier, daddies, this one, this one, signed, but the elections did not take place, so i say it again, so you need some troops, if you have troops everywhere in the city, and this, well, then you can at least marshal to make pétain the head of state in france, by the way , no one elected him, just the savior of the nation, and that's it so he made it to the tribunal, but there were troops there? germany occupied almost all of france, in this territory, which was not occupied, there was marshal pétain, who also did not hold elections, because he could lose, by the way, we don't know, well, i'm not sure, because he was very popular with the french at the time , this is also true, but just as an example, that is, this

whole idea of ​​a puppet government in our conditions should be supported not by the fact that russia has control over some donetsk or luhansk region, but by the fact that it should be present. everywhere, or there should be one here the puppet government, the power structures that will provide it, you see, the ukrainians themselves, but in the ukrainian ssr, relatively speaking, there were some kind of collaborators, well, not all of them, as you understand, many russians, and this is also a very interesting thing, that remember, even under these conditions, the ukrainian ssr was a pseudo-state, a phantom to... take away bread, the first decision to ensure this was to remove from the post of second secretary of the central committee of the party of ukraine, the bolsheviks of ukraine, mendel

khatayevich, who was here and there with kateryna slava, and they sent pavel postyshev from russia, that is, even in this situation. they did not trust the local cadres, it seemed that everything was in place, the army was standing, the kyiv military district, the nkvd was completely under moscow, everything was theirs, but it turns out that when 6 million people need to be starved to death, even the ukrainian bolshevik leadership cannot fully control the situation, maybe they don't trust me, but postyshev, a russian man, should have been here. there it was not only about officials in such high positions, there was even talk about sending small officials, little cogs to districts to districts, well yes and this vertical was being built, it was the poslyshiv vertical, because he also did not

trust ukrainian cadres, well, we are talking about a sovereign state here, and again, this was when ukraine did not exist, and now it exists, it is... a very good example, it seems to me, and here, of course, it is possible to discuss this whole story for a very long time, because the implementation of all of them is completely unclear. these plans, but again, i think trump may have an illusion of reality, because trump may actually believe that putin wants to settle for the territories that he controls, and that the whole problem of the russian-ukrainian war, by the way, many of our compatriots think so, and they, frankly, are idiots, along with trump, those who think so, that the reason for this war is that.. . that putin wants to get donbas and that he does not want us to join nato, and

if these problems are solved, as putin did not propose in 2022, then all this will end, but the truth is completely different, and this must be clearly understood. donbas or crimea or some other part of ukrainian territory where russian troops are located - it is not a goal, a bridgehead. it is not necessary to destroy the target of the splatdarmo. mobilization is taking place there so that ukrainians kill ukrainians so that fewer russians die. the troops are there so that the territory of russia suffers less, and you hear that they call this territory the new russia, someone is bombing the new russia, but no one is bombing the old russia, everything is fine with us, this is the second point, the third point, nato, there is no problem that ukraine will join nato and become a threat to russia, but there is a problem that if ukraine joins nato, its it will be more difficult to win, because... it will be necessary to go to a conflict with nato, and that is

exactly why putin does not want ukraine to join nato. in these security guarantees for the russian federation, important ones that were offered by the russian foreign ministry on the eve of a major invasion, it was made clear that russia required guarantees that none of the former soviet republics. which has not yet joined nato, will not join nato, and this is the essence of the problem, and now the question arises, why are they all a threat to russia, no, because there is a plan their integration into russia, if it joins, they join nato, this plan fails, so there is no problem, if we join in, if we do not join nato, it will mean, as i have already said many times, only one thing that war will repeat. ukrainians are very fond of saying that they do not want to leave this war to their

children and grandchildren and grandchildren, and therefore it must be won, if ukraine even stops this war and wins it, and even restores its territorial integrity, but does not receive any security guarantees from of the event, you can don't even doubt that you will leave your russian-ukrainian war to your children and grandchildren, and that one of your grandchildren will surely... die in this next war, and when you see the military cemetery where our heroes are already lying , just know that your grandchildren are there too, some of them are five or seven years old, there will also be some lying there, this is a political reality, no other political reality, ashes, and the russians, i assure you, do not want this, they do not suicides, they conduct all their wars with those who are on their opinion cannot answer them, russia is a country that always in its history, if you... and taught this history in schools, it always attacked, if it attacked

only those who were weaker. unlike many other countries, russia has never attacked those it considered stronger or equal. russia is a state that always starts wars with those who are weak enough, waits for the weakening of the enemy, and then attacks the weak. and if, and the only thing that always. was a problem for russia, it was that it could have bad analytics, here they are attacked some state, conventionally speaking, which they considered weak against japan, then everyone and someone else, and then it turned out that they did not know something, by the way, this happened in february 2022, yes, here, and then it turns out that this is not such a weak state, and this mykola is the first to go and shoot himself, well, goodbye, so to speak, comrade romanov, this is the essence. of russian politics, this is not a state, this is a criminal organization of hooligans who declared

themselves a state and invented a name for themselves, which they stole in the movement, that is, in the city of moscow, then this were built, and then moved to the northern swamps of st. petersburg, well, that’s the whole wonderful story, as you understand, so that’s all that can be said about the future, i don’t know if i pleased or reassured anyone there, but in donato, i have to to go, in short. well, what we started our conversation with an hour and a half ago, we will, relatively speaking, continue with this, we will have one more topic, we will definitely... talk about it, the topic is important, but wait a few minutes, after a short break, we will return to the live broadcast of the tv channel and saturday's political club, no switch, a journalist who joined the armed forces, a political expert who became a special agent, taras berezovyts in a new

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are engaged in propaganda. russia is throwing millions of petrodollars into transforming ukrainians. on malorossiv. ukraine will become russia. countering russian information attacks in the chronicles of information war project with olga len. tuesday - thursday at 17:15. repeat, tuesday-friday at 10:00 p.m. every week , maria gurska meets with the head of the committee on foreign affairs of the polish sejm, pawel kowal, the representative of the polish government for the restoration of ukraine. as we always talk about the most important thing that happened this week in poland in... what is being said about ukraine in the eu, how should we perceive the statements of european politicians and what will our accession to the eu look like? in the project about politics about the world with maria gurska, every sunday at 3:30 p.m. with a repeat at 10:00 p.m. in cooperation with sister eu. we return to the live broadcast of the espresso tv channel, saturday's political club, and

we have another 10 minutes to discuss with vitaly portnikov something important. a topic important for ukraine, important for the european union, important for the stability of europe, and these are the elections in france, literally tomorrow they will take place, in fact the party that won a week ago, the national union party of marie le pen, it, she, de facto can win in the second round as well, but there are certain nuances and... we already see, we see sociology, by the way, who is interested, in fact, during the last few days, this sociology began to demonstrate that the le pen party is losing votes, losing support, even if we say so, it is not losing votes, and thanks to the efforts of the left and macron's party, efforts, efforts

to unite around one candidate in a huge number of constituencies. in fact , le pen's party may get, if not defeat, then not get a majority, accordingly and not form a government, by the way, together with another of its potential partners, this is a conservative party, if i'm not mistaken, the republicans, i'm sorry, which is part of them, part for, part, part of the right part of the republicans, who can also get there from 35 to... 50 mandates as of now, well, we have such a situation, which alarming, and there are certain positive trends, but there are also statements, lepen and... for some reason, the closer tomorrow is, the more these statements become more like that, more radical again, familiar, more radical in relation to ukraine in a negative

sense, mr. vitaly, your opinion about all this, about the french election, your prediction, what might happen after, i think madame has already decided that she doesn't need to play, she played because she thought she would win, and now that she thinks that she will probably win and form the government, she... defines these positions of hers, which have always allowed her to exist freely in the spectrum in which she is, once, secondly, the question immediately arises of what will happen next, let's imagine that lipen really lost the election, yes, but what macron was counting on, he was counting on his party going to this election, the socialists, the greens, separately, mélenchon's recalcitrant france, and then in the second round. all these parties will remove their candidates in favor of macron's party, because it is bigger among them than how many of these socialists there are, and after that he will calmly

it is on this idea of ​​fighting lipen that he will form a government, uh, because he did not have a majority at the time of the dissolution of the national assembly, his parties did not have a majority, it turned out absolutely... otherwise, because the main story of all this is that the left united, not because the right won in the first round, but because the left united, and the left has a better result than the macronists, and now the question arises, if everything turns out the way you and i we are discussing who will be the winner of the election, we can find out whether le pen will formally be the party, but formally, however, more votes for forms. of the coalition, the same macron will be of course among the left among the left, who should be the prime minister of france then? the left, that's right, how easy will it be for macron to implement any of his economic

plans in a coalition with leftist forces? well, it is clear that macron, that macron is losing his majority in parliament. that is, that is, he must be part of this majority, because in this case no one will create a coalition, there will be neither... a coalition of national unity, nor a coalition of the left, nor will there be in general, because there will be actually, well, three main political forces, of course, and macron will have to create a coalition with the left in order to get the majority of votes, but a coalition with the left will not actually give him the opportunity to really rule the country, well, it’s a loss anyway , but economically he is closer to the right than to the left, so what is the focus, then what should macron create? macron's coalition with, but this is his political death, because you throw tantrums and say: let's unite to prevent lipen from coming to power, and then to form a coalition with lipen, it will look very strange, even if she is a junior

partner in this coalition, so this situation so far looks like a real blind spot, uh, yes, and there is another question, if the left wants to form a coalition with macron, or will the unruly france of jean-luc mélenchon be in this coalition, or will the left themselves split in the parliament, what will happen in general. in the parliament, after he starts working, there is still an option that macron in this situation will create a minority government, which will rely on situational allies, and, but someone has to vote for him too, once to the left, ugh, and then, when the economic decisions are right, ugh, ugh, and there may also be a situation when the national assembly works for a year, ugh, and will be dissolved, that we are just on or that maybe they just won't approve. and could it even be profitable for le pen to a certain extent not to form a coalition now in order to increase his already quite high rating before the presidential

elections, because we understand that if the le pen party even in theory gets a majority, it forms it together with smaller ones political forces, and it will still be a minority government, they will still de facto not have such control. because the president of france is the president of france, according to the constitution, there he performs extremely important functions, and then it will look like the le pen party and the prime minister from the le pen party will not fulfill their promises and their rating will collapse. i think it is impossible if the lipen party gets a majority in the parliament, and no coalition will be needed. i mean, if they... wait, if they get, i don't understand, if they get the majority, they get the opportunity to form the government and will form it if

they do not get the majority. nobody will vote for the government, uh, well, macron won’t vote, the left won’t vote, they either have this situation or another, so it’s not a question of lipen’s benefit, it’s a question of how many seats she will have in parliament, or you think that she will have the majority of seats in the parliament, she will say, i don’t want to, no, i mean that it is possible that at this stage it is not even beneficial for her to get an absolute majority, well, it may be beneficial, it may not be beneficial, but it's not up to her, it's up to the voters, yes, it's not up to her to decide, if she has a majority, she'll be forced to form the uga. that is, not her, but jordan bardela, and this government will be, and if she does not have a majority, then the government will most likely be unclear, which, or macron's minority government, not her smaller government, because no one will vote for her smaller government , and macron's minority government may be voted by the left, or there will be a coalition of the left with macron, but i don't believe it, because the left hates him, there may be another government minorities, the minority government of the left. which

macron's party will vote for, but without melancholy, ugh, but it is not known whether the left will agree to this, well, in the event that they fall apart, only in the event that, therefore, i say once again that we are talking about these elections , and they are not solving anything, they are bringing france into an even bigger dead end than it was before these elections, and this is something that macron did not count on, by the way, this is similar to the story we discussed at the start of our discussion of david cameron's decision to hold a referendum on participation of great britain in the european union, who dragged him to this referendum, who demanded this referendum from him, why did he invent it, here it is the same with macron, there are people, you see, this is generally a problem of young politicians, you understand, when you get older , you kind of start thinking about different options, and when you're in

cameron's age, cameron's now... no referendum, or in macron's age, you think you'll be fine, not because you 're told so, because you want so much, well, that is, by and large, we have to say yes, after these elections, france will slide into a deep political crisis, because there is no real recipe for how to govern france, because the governance that macron engaged in was not left-wing governance, as you remember pension reform, macron passed the house. with the national association, not with the left, then, of course, the constitutional court canceled all that, or the supreme court of france, i don't remember which station, but at the same time it remained absolutely, so to speak, the fact that they were going to an agreement with national unification, but now macron is there shouting how to stop fascism, communism, communism not to stop, communism

to unite, the french communist party people. at the front, yes, but he negotiated with them somehow and nothing really pissed him off that he was negotiating with these fascists, well , this is the cynicism of the situation, and therefore no one understands what will be the problem, not even that no one understands , what will happen on sunday, the question is that, unfortunately, no one understands what will happen on monday, but tomorrow evening i will host the broadcast from 8 to 10 kyiv time, when we will know the first... election bags and we will already be able to determine something for ourselves. thank you, andrei. thank you, mr. vitaliyu, the saturday political club, we discussed many topics, thank you vitaliy portnik. and we will see you in a week, at this very time, at 7 p.m. next saturday. take care and goodbye. victory!