term commitments will be announced at the summit, but what i know for sure is that in the short term, the promises will be serious and financial and military-technical, but how long they will be, that is very important for us, that is, it is one thing to hear certain assurances for months ahead, another matter for years ahead, and this is precisely the element of uncertainty about which we will get an answer only at the summit itself, but he will say... please, how can we give any assurances for years ahead, when we don't know with you, what will happen in the united states in a few months? well, we are used to the fact that in democratic, stable states, there is a certain tenacity of state policy, which is based on understanding one's national interests from a strategic perspective. yes, it is obvious that today's world, it, it is much more turbulent than the one we are used to, including... with regard to the internal processes

in key countries, yes, but we understand that there is a world in which the one who sees the long term wins, that's why even if, you understand, governments make decisions based on their actual obligations, current understanding of the situation in the world, yes, even if they cannot guarantee that everything will be the same after the change of government. will continue, however, they have the power as of now to make decisions, i think that if such decisions are made and announced, it will not be so easy for the next government to reverse them. and tell me, in principle, the americans always said that we would have, that they would be so serious for ukraine decisions to be made at this summit that ukraine will not be disappointed, well, we were disappointed in... what is needed so that we are not disappointed,

what should it look like, there is no need to be fascinated, i am always i am rarely disappointed, because in i have no special, special expectation that the current governments of democratic countries will be so decisive as to make decisions that in the long run could lead them to... war, i don't expect it now, and that's why it's actually easier to accept those conditional disappointments , oh, but at the same time nothing is denied, nothing no, no, no, in fact, it does not prevent us from receiving additional resources from the member countries of the alliance, even if these resources are insufficient, but they will never be sufficient, but we understand.

that the majority of nato member countries have unused resources that, in principle, can be provided to ukraine, and this is precisely the question for them, for the governments, to what extent they are ready to share these resources already now and also to undertake obligations at least for two-three-year perspective. what do you think, mr. oleksandr? how does this affect this situation now? should i say pre-election instability in the united states? it certainly has a lot of influence, and we have seen in the last week additional factors of tension related to the unsuccessful biden debate, related to the fact that today there is not even certainty who is running, yes, and internal, internal friction in the middle democratic party , whether it is necessary to change the candidate or not, all this does not add confidence. the reliability of the situation, well, but these

are the things that we cannot influence, yes, that is, here we must already understand that we have dealing only with the world as it is, and we have to find ways to work even, and what do you think, do you really think that biden might not run, it's an unlikely prospect as of... today, but, well, maybe it might to change, yes, we understand that there is serious friction and that there are serious arguments for changing the candidate, but at the same time, if there was, like, some clearly winning model, for example, if everyone understood that kamala harris has a great chance to win against trump, because she does not have those disadvantages and problems with age. which biden has

then the situation would have been different, there would have been more supporters of such a change, but this is not the case, because everyone understands that kamala harris is less charismatic, less ... authoritative than joe biden himself, and precisely because of this there are no special illusions that she can to become that same thing, that magic wand, even though she is younger, that she has no problems with age, yes, but her rating is even lower than biden's rating, that's why, actually, that's why there is no confidence that the replacement itself at the moment can fundamentally change the situation for... even if this candidate is younger, different and so on, succeed, and if it is not harris, then who, it is one of the other leaders, let's say, governors who represent the democratic party, well then we have to start the primaries from scratch, then we have to look support, but then

you have to bring in this element of intra-party struggle at a time when consolidation is needed, and so i'm not sure that the democratic party can ... afford to plunge into this vortex of competition now with such a short period of time ahead of it, ahead, in fact, having the need to put an end to the question of his candidate already in the coming weeks. well, this is the same question, yes, but why do the big sponsors of the democratic party continue to demand this, then what is the point, because they, well, this is pressure, they are not what to rely on... they, they there is also no single candidate, you see, they say, let’s do something about it, but they don’t have a consolidated solution, and what to replace it with, that’s why actually, well, let’s say, it’s more like a cry from the soul to

biden, get out of the race , and we are further there let's decide, we already have a democratic system, in fact they don't have a solution, there is no solution, because there is no adequate replacement that would uh... that would suit everyone and not involve the party in an endless battle around, around the candidate, that's why, actually , yes, this, this is a very serious sentiment within those who support the democratic party that biden cannot , that he simply cannot be president for the next four years, he can win and he can theoretically, but be president, so in this is increasingly doubted, and therefore they they are trying to find... some kind of solution, this is their right, but i still don't see, i still don't see ways to implement this, well, here too , the question is quite important, to what extent in this situation, in this situation

, we can talk about that the democrats are able to win the election if they are in a panic all the time, the democrats are already panicking, the republicans are not panicking about trump. no one doubts there, so to speak, well, that's right, i'm sorry, i had to turn on the light here, because here we have electrical problems, i would like to say that no one has this decision in the democratic party, we can say that this is a historically unprecedented situation, regarding which no one knows how to act, there are not even procedures, there are no such cases when after the priymaries they would be questioned. the actual seat of the candidate who won this primary, which is biden, but the situation has really changed not in his favor, will he be able to fix it? it is clear, maybe somewhere, two or three successful

cases of his public speeches in the coming days could convince, at least a significant part of his supporters, in the fact that he can still be a worthy competitor to trump, and... the president for the next four years, this is the chance he still has, but in general, the situation for the democratic party at the moment, well, is not optimistic, let's say this, in principle, to what extent can the united states now continue its support for ukraine in a situation when no one knows what the results of the presidential elections will be, and donald trump looks at the problem completely differently than joseph biden and does not hide it. as long as there is authority the acting government, the current president, they can do everything in accordance with their constitutional powers, but at the same time , it is very important, of course, to predict and communicate qualitatively with the camp that may

come to power, and i understand that the situation for ukraine will be completely different if trump, but then again, trump is not completely incognito, but we know a little bit about who... he is, we know what the entry points are, we know what arguments are working in the trumpist camp, uh, and so, well, okay, it will be a bad situation. but we have to find a way to give advice if he will suddenly win. and what do you think, mr. oleksandr, trump himself wants to communicate with us, but ukraine may want to communicate with trump's camp, how interesting trump is to communicate with ukraine in this situation, this is also an important question. well , yes, i understand what you mean, because for trump, ukraine is a somewhat toxic subject, yes, due to various circumstances. in particular, the story of his impeachment, and emotionally, he does not have a very

good relationship with ukraine, and he will not become our ardent supporter, but at the same time, there are certain interests and certain circumstances, which won't prevent it from just turning 180°, it won't be like that either, it's like that too, so there's a lot of room for possibilities. in order to talk to the republicans, to talk to those who will play a key role in his camp, and even to myself, there i do not think that this way will be completely closed, even if we do not have a certain emotional agreement with him, with his moods, but it will have to be done. and tell me, do you understand at all what trump is really thinking of

doing with the russian-ukrainian war, we have already seen different versions of the plan, different versions of the statements, you have an idea what he wants in general, from that set of facts, that set of facts, yes, i think he will seek a freeze of the war, a freeze of the war roughly along the current demarcation line. in addition, from what i understand, he may also offer to sacrifice the prospect of ukraine's membership in nato. these are the two things that i definitely see, all the others are not clear yet, he himself, he himself does not know what there are about other things, and it is obvious that putin will have others things, it is obvious that putin will not be satisfied with only these two positions, he will want something else. and here the question is to what extent and what trump will think at that moment, and

if donald trump does not want to make concessions to putin? well, then, again, the operational space is going to exist for us, and it's going to be important to have those channels of communication with trump that won't allow, say, those channels. to be monopolized by those who are not on our side. i am very interested to watch, now this story is unfolding. i imagine that tomorrow or the day after tomorrow orbán will come there to see trump. he will come to beijing tomorrow, mr. alexander, his plane is already on its way to china. and i do not rule out that he will go to trump later. i do not rule it out, i also agree, yes. that's it. so this game has already begun. and it is obvious that she is far from it. ideal for us, but i wouldn't say that it is hopeless, we have to operate with the

opportunities that are available. thank you, mr. oleksandr, oleksandr soshko, the executive director of the international renaissance fund was in touch with us. now to the middle east. serhiy danilov, deputy director of the center of middle eastern studies, we are in touch. congratulations, mr. serhiy. good evening, greetings to mr. vitaly. well, let's start with the iranian elections. when it turned out that in the list of candidates for the presidency of iran there are exclusively conservative candidates and one representative of the so-called reformist government, say from the reformist camp of masoud pezeshkian, many observers said that this was solely in order to increase the turnout in the presidential elections iran, because the iranian population is somehow not very interested in elections, and if there is some reformer, a person with such a reputation will go to the elections, well, it must be said that a large number did not go anyway, then when masud pazashkiv. entered the second round of elections, it was believed that he would not enter there, that there would be two representatives of conservatives, mr. halybab, who

was considered the most convenient candidate for moscow, and mr. jalili, such an ultraconservative that they would be in the second round, masud podyshkyan entered , all the observers were saying, sorry, but he won't win because the conservative candidate will win, even ayatollah khamenei spoke out against the positions masoud pezeshkian expressed during his election campaign, and he won the ... election by a 10% margin with the ultraconservative candidate, and now everyone says, so what, it won't change anything, but somehow it all looks strange, and this will change a lot, well... in general , the talk about the fact that the president in iran does not influence anything, is a secondary figure, they have reasons, but, but the president actually has sufficient opportunities to deploy his people, - firstly, secondly, exactly on he is tasked with correcting the situation with the economy, because actually social standards,

the economy, the standard of living were at the basis of these elections, and the tension. the main thing is the social and political tension that exists in iranian society, the ruling group around rakhbar, it around the supreme leader, they understand that if they do not let off steam now, then it is not known how this situation will explode, they had enough on the 22nd, 23rd th year, when they barely kept the situation under control, someone will have to be blamed for the fact that the situation does not change. iran stands on the threshold of a very serious upheavals, regardless of whether the current newly elected president succeeds in doing something or not, because the tension is high enough, and there is one more factor, it turned out that the contradictions in the conservative camp are very large, and both and the sepahi corps are not united, and

the mule corporation is not the only one, there are... very different interests and very different ideas within each of these corporations, which we outwardly think are so united and so solidary within themselves. and yet, how can it look now, what will masoud do pezheshkian, will he really try to improve relations with the united states? well, he will try to bargain, that's for sure. if there is no trump. it is possible that he is bargaining for something, if there is trump, then he will have no chance to bargain, and in general, to what extent does this reflect the point of view of iranian society, or is it an intra-clan struggle, which is so expressed in the elections, no, no , no, the turnout, well, all the regional and iranian observers say that this is

the collapse of the regime, in fact, and the last protest, which was in the 22nd, 23rd year, took place... under the slogan of the death of the islamic republic, it was held under the slogans of returning to the simple iranian republic or the republic of iran, this absolutely reflects the point of view of the absolute majority of citizens, 25 million people live below the poverty line out of 806, 11 million people are related to the corps, that is, relatives, they and the people who are their families there, 11 million, and these 11 million did not come to the elections, that is, even those who were considered the support, the basis of the regime, ignored, expressed their protest against this situation, against what they said, that they do not believe in this election, in this one

the regime, not specific individuals, already the regime and this social system that has developed in iran, therefore... well, the situation is very serious, they will have to do something, if nothing comes out of pozhashana, we will see the next revolution, that's for sure, well, that is, he needs to liberalize regime, he needs to liberalize it in such a way that it is not blown to pieces, gorbachev also came to soften it, to give a little freedom and somehow...