in all other conditions, well, you ended the war, well, you even received some kind of treaty with russia, well, let’s imagine, a peace treaty, even there you fixed some kind of contact line or even a state border, who will believe in it, well, that is, some number of people will decide , well, we will live in a neutral country or in a country that is a candidate for nato membership, but not for nato... it will not happen until some transition period has passed there, will you feel safe? no, of course, i, by the way, am also saying this, just like you, and to the people with whom i communicate, and on the air, i say the same thing, that is, i similarly understand that without guarantees from nato and the united states of america, ukraine will simply turn into a conditional gray zone in such a situation, of course, but they, but not just gray. the zone, the zone in which

war may break out at any moment. this is not exactly neutrality, you see, we have examples of neutrality in europe, right? well, i don't think we're going to discuss the example of neutrality, the swiss confederation, uh, and because it is simply surrounded on all sides by western states, it always was, even after the second world war. and during the second world war it was not affected by germany, this neutrality is conditional, because germany simply decided that it needed to preserve the swiss statehood of its political goals, and imagine if they had decided that it was worth not leaving, neutrality would have helped switzerland , i am not sure if such a lock could happen with austria, well , this stage has already been passed, but austria is another neutral. the state, well, today it is

it is also surrounded on all sides by nato member countries, but there was a period in its history when it was neutral, but the warsaw pact was on its border, czechoslovakia, hungary, that is, the soviet union could theoretically attack it, and it turns out that it lived under guarantees of neutrality by the allies in world war ii, but that was the situation after world war ii, that's how they decided west germany under the... under the allied security protectorate, east germany under the soviet union security protectorate, and a austria under the joint security protectorate. it held so because the soviet union perfectly understood that if it attacked austria in this situation, it would destroy the entire architecture of european security, including the recognition of its own sphere of influence, because this is not just the neutrality of austria, it is recognition of the russian soviet. of this influence in

poland, czechoslovakia, hungary, bulgaria, romania, that is, it is a package, you understand, and with this package, austria was able to survive until the collapse of the soviet union and until the moment when it was finally separated from russia by the border of the countries central europe, how can we get such a package of guarantees, as we do if we have a border with russia. to decide that it will not attack us next time, because again , no intergovernmental agreement is a guarantee here, we had an intergovernmental agreement with russia, a large agreement signed by presidents boris yeltsin and leonid kuchma. i well remember how yeltsin was expected in kyiv. it was simply and such an expectation as the most important event, precisely because the ukrainian leadership believed that if he signed this contract, it is basically a guarantee. ukraine's

security and sovereignty, if russia considers us an independent sovereign state, recognizes our territorial integrity, then what else do we have to wait for? however, all other states have no doubts about ukrainian statehood, and yeltsin did not just sign this agreement, he also signed another agreement, he did not sign it, but it was signed in his presence, about basing the black sea fleet in sevastopol, and by the way, it could b someone somehow... uh, let's say, make one think about the fact that yeltsin without this agreement on the black sea fleet refused to come and sign the big contract, this was their main condition, first the fleet, then the big contract, that is why, in principle, the agreement on the fleet is not what it could have been, even at that stage, that is , all we could with she was pushed out, but president leonid kuchma was so

interested in yeltsin's arrival that he put pressure not only on the russian delegation, but also on his own, and in this situation yevgeny marchuk found it difficult to speak with oleg soskovets, the head of the russian delegation, because he saw how the president of ukraine is interested in the soon arrival of the president of the russian federation, here is an example for you, that is, we come to the point that we have no other option, except to cover the territory that we control with the nato umbrella, because any other security agreement , well, no matter how it sounds there, it may not be implemented a priori. of course, we need not just an umbrella, but the fact that russia recognized the right to this umbrella, so that it would agree to this, plus we also well understand that in any country that will give us such a guarantee, it can change of power, that is, this agreement, it must

be absolute to be implemented, i see now the only such agreement, it is the agreement on the north atlantic alliance, where a large number of states can be... such guarantors, collective, collective agreement, and if it is an agreement , let's say, between ukraine and the united states of america, but if trump comes to power, well, conditionally, trump says, i don't like it, then this thing just might not work, well, if it is ratified by congress, then it will work for anyone, yes, but we understand what to imagine so far such an agreement on strategic partnership or on strategic defense is very important at this moment. well, look, trump's team is now thinking about how, in principle, to remove itself from the risk in europe in general? ugh, they started talking about some kind of two-tier nato, that the nuclear umbrella will remain, american troops will leave europe, you understand that for countries like russia this is a sign of weakness, they started talking about the fact that those countries that

pay in full in nato budget, the united states will defend them in case of attack, and those which fully pay the budget, will not protect. the fifth thing... the article, as they believe, does not guarantee the need for mandatory protection, if they will speak with such theses in the event of the return of donald trump to the white house, then the question will arise as to how effective nato is as a guarantee, well, it is actually can generally lead to the collapse of the nato system itself, to the very foundation on which nato stands, because if there is selective protection, or for example, well, first 2%, and then they will say: three, well look, we have real understand, donald trump, as a person, as a politician interested in the destruction of the international security system, there is no need for any illusions again, he did not hide this last time either, he simply did not succeed, because he fought not only with the international system, but still with the american one, and for a long time he could not get rid of those advisers who were actively

against it, now it can be completely different, and now this international security system can be reformatted quite quickly, that is , he really may not leave nato, but to actually create the conditions under which ... the american commitments to nato will be fake, and try to transfer, let's say, the level of security to the middle east and to the pacific region, where it may not be perceived the way they think, because they may believe that the american exit from europe will mean that america can be smoked from anywhere, if uncomfortable conditions are created for it, so putin started a war against ukraine and the americans got away from... away from sin, so that the americans smoke, must continue some, some actions that will encourage them to get involved, the korean peninsula, the middle east, the asia-pacific region, it's such an ideal pearl harbor situation, that is, you

don't want to get involved in european affairs, and you get hit from another direction, there where you do not expect a blow, because you are sure that if you left europe, then you concentrated all your efforts on something else. direction, actually exiting europe is perceived as a sign of weakness, by and large this is how the states in the axis perceived the united states in during the second world war, that since the americans do not want to participate in the defense of europe and adhere to the zionist approach to politics, this means that they are afraid that they are not capable of defending themselves, they are weaklings, they can be beaten, they will go everywhere instead, this was a misjudgment, but in any case it cost the lives of thousands of young americans. yes, i can repeat myself now, in principle, i believe that this is absolutely real, but at the same time , trump says that it is his coming to power will stop any wars in the world, you understand , that is, as far as we can see these double standards, on the one hand, we are observing preparations for the complete leveling

of international law and, relatively speaking, the nato charter, on the other hand, trump is saying: listen, well, i will come, wars are all will end, will... well, i think that trump is just sure that he should be feared for some reason, firstly, huh, and secondly, that he can, let's say, buy mir-2. that he can offer the dictators such favorable conditions that in principle will put an end to their ambitions. i do not i think that will happen. first, i believe that trump is a completely unrealistic thinking person. well, you know, trump supporters can think and say whatever they want, but we see and hear everything, we see a person who is basically unable to formulate an opinion, well, simply unable to formulate an opinion, but this is reality. you can talk as much as you want about president biden, that he is old, that he

is whispering, that he is not feeling well, but when biden speaks, he speaks in complete sentences, trump does not use complete sentences speaks because he is unable to formulate a thought, just purely mentally. i understand that to many people who vote for him, who are not able to formulate an opinion themselves, this seems normal, because a huge number of people in our world are not able to clearly formulate an opinion, firstly, because they do not think, secondly second, when he thinks, he is confused in...thoughts, because there is no corresponding, i would say, mental background, but this is reality, so to say that trump knows exactly what he is going to do when he jumps from thought to thought for a few minutes, he's such a mentally disorganized person, we can't, well, again, it's not a situation where we 're waiting for something that we haven't seen, well, we've seen trump with someone, we've seen trump come to the second meeting , not understanding why, then... i decided that there would be business, then i told them to do it, there will be no business, you

are behaving badly, and it all looked like absolute hypophrenia, i will honestly say, well, it is political, and it can be so to repeat, so again, i am sure that trump underestimates putin and sydzenpin, because, secondly, he overestimates himself, two, three, i believe that a person with such, i would say, an absolutely incredible ego that is... trump is capable of being really offended when it comes to his, so to speak, well how do i put it , about his idea of ​​how the international order should develop, may be offended and may somewhere answer like, ugh, as putin never dreamed, but there is another problem, trump unites with putin, so that trump is ready to neglect the international. right, all these conversations that he will give putin something, that putin will want for the sake of peace, that means enough

the simple thing is that it comes with the possibility of changing state borders in exchange for peace in europe, but changing state borders in exchange for peace is always a new war, because in principle we get into a new reality that if you can take something from another state, and get a foothold there, it doesn't matter what you say. all these historical reminiscences, with which putin operates, have no significance in relation to international law. the more we see that they can change. there were russians in crimea, and everyone said, oh well you see, there are already russians there, ukrainians in the kherson region, but we will announce them to the russians. well, listen, it's like kosovo is serbian. kosovo is the ancient land of the serbian people. it is a fact, that is why it belongs to us, not because according to international law, because it is serbian, and the albanians who think otherwise, we will drive them out. well, this is also an approach, we understand, that is, it is always a question about what

we are talking about, about the principle of international law, about guarantees of the safety of the population living in one or another territory, this is also important, of course, we will remember karabakh, azerbaijan restored its territorial integrity, absolutely internationally recognized, but by completely evicting the population that lived in this territory at the moment, well, international law is when you restore the borders of the state. but at the same time you give opportunities to the people who just live there to the ordinary civilian population, security guarantees for living where they are, it is not otherwise, well, in normal international law, now we live in a completely different international law, as you can see, that is this is also very important, an important situation about which we have to say, i do not believe that trump will be able to pay off putin, because to believe that trump can pay off putin with four ukrainian regions and crimea is to agree. with the fact that this is precisely what putin needs, this is why he is waging war, but we understand that this is all a coincidence, all these

territories are a coincidence, it's just that in 2013 putin managed to gain a foothold in the donetsk and luhansk regions, and not in kharkiv and odesa, because for various reasons, but due to the corruption of donbas and its connection clans, yanukovych in particular, efremov tsikhanov with moscow, more serious than in odesa and kharkiv regions, precisely because, not because russian people live there. in odesa and kharkiv, some other people live, the same people live everywhere, it’s just that there was a power vertical sharpened under moscow much more, the kherson and zaporizhzhia regions, well, he was just able to occupy these territories and... let’s imagine that he dug in not there, in the mykolaiv oblast and odesa, but kherson and zaporizhia, let's say, there would be luhansk from zaporizhia, there would be not under his control, well, that's how he would like this area, it's not related to the population, it's simply related to certain territories where he managed to gain a foothold, well , if we simply consider that brute force is a sign of some the rights of the population, it

seems to me to be a very dangerous approach, we have to take a short break and in a few minutes we will continue this topic and of course we will talk about orban's visit to kyiv and moscow. don't switch. greetings, this is svoboda live on radio svoboda. we have already come to the very point snakey the following shots may shock you. news from the scene. live kamikaze drone attacks. political analytics. objectively and meaningfully. there is no political season. sim interviews, reports from the hottest points of the front. freedom life, frankly and impartially. you draw your own conclusions.

saturday political club live ether, and we continue our discussion. orban came to ukraine this week, then flew to moscow. in ukraine, he met with

the president of ukraine, volodymyr zelenskyi. orbán offered peace again, offered. cease-fire, after which he flew to moscow, met with putin there, and basically said about the same thing, a lot of people are talking about this this week, and this is probably one of the top topics for discussion, after all, why did orban come to kyiv, then come to moscow, what was the meaning of these visits, was it, relatively speaking, his personal position in order to show off, to consolidate his status, or was he still able to convey some information or to carry out an exchange between, let's say some positions, between the ukrainian authorities and in russian and vice versa, i do not think that orban is the kind of person who is engaged in shuttle diplomacy, first of all, shuttle diplomacy does not involve such an open format, with

press conferences and statements, that it became clear to me that between moscow and... . there are very deep disagreements about the end of the war, by and large it must be said that in this situation there are no real possibilities in what such diplomacy looks like in principle, i believe that there are many other reasons, these reasons are related to by what, like you and me we understand, orban... plays a rather serious game related to not only his positions in europe. what is the meaning of this game? well , almost simultaneously with the formulation of this agenda, this visit created

a group in the european parliament, which is growing and growing every day. there is work in the european parliament, and i think that it will soon have the necessary party, the seventh, this is an absolutely obvious moment, sijin ping was visiting orban. it is obvious that during this visit of the chinese leader to the hungarian capitals could also discuss the situation related to the presence, let's say , of the hungarian prime minister, if not in moscow, then in kyiv, because in principle what orbán says is very similar to the chinese proposal, we are not so much russian sees that putin repeats the same thing all the time. that the withdrawal of ukrainian troops from the donetsk, luhansk, kherson, and zaporizhia regions should be a condition for the ceasefire. and china or hungary

talk about a simple ceasefire on the contact line, they do not demand that we go anywhere there were going out or for the russians to go somewhere, they just stand here, you have to stop the fire. so, and this is absolutely also an obvious point that we need to know about, we also need to understand, one more point, which is that there are such trips, the meeting, the trip of orbán to marola to trump, the meeting of orbán to sidzenpinom in budapest, orban's trip to moscow to putin, together with the trip to kyiv, they have to convince politicians, european, far-right, let's say, or just populists, that there can be such a... model of existence that you you can meet with trump, putin and sydzenpin and be a fairly respectable politician

in europe, and even zelensky will meet with you in kyiv, so to speak, you can't go anywhere. this is the model of what i call chinese europe, not russian. europe, which basically consists of countries that aspire to be members. of the european union and even nato, not all, but nato also has a certain part there, because austria is not in nato, and serbia is not in nato, and they are not going there, this is europe that hopes for chinese investments, europe that wants support connection with the united states, but with trump's america, because orbán did not even meet with biden when he was in marogolago, they need trump's america, they are preparing for this america, and this is it. europe can function completely calmly, but it was simply, if you like, a demonstration swim that everything can be done, that there is a prime minister of a not very large european country who can

stop sanctions against russia there and go to moscow, go to kyiv, and receive sidzempin, go to trump, why not others maybe, you saw that, in principle , the law and justice party is polish there, it really does not want to have any... relations with moscow, but this whole other model, ukraine, trump, ugh, and obviously china is there, so that it is possible to agree on investments, she is also satisfied, however, the party of law and justice, she decided not to go to this group that orban is creating in the european parliament, obviously precisely because yaroslav kaczynski is not satisfied with this russian orientation of trump orban, but she can be satisfied other participants, say hertha wilder. for example, the leadership of the austrian freedom party, which is already thinking about what the new austrian government will be like in a few months, can marine le pen, you

see how we say in principle, we will support ukraine, but no permission to strike with our weapons on russian territory, no troops, ugh. this is something that the russians can already consider constructive, but for them the borders of constructive are also shifting, previously constructive was not to supply weapons to ukraine, but now constructive means you can supply weapons, but not to strike at sovereign the territory of the russian federation, the red lines are moving, and it is important that the russian red lines always have their own lobbyists, so in principle, i think that this is not about a peace agreement, a conversation and not about the end of the war, but about the creation of just such a model of the european continent . but it is also extremely beneficial for putin, because it is beneficial for the non-handshaker, so to speak, the president

of the so-called russia, we see that putin is gradually moving to the point that with some politicians and some politicians are ready to return to shaking hands to putin to the model of normality, because what is happening after 2000. in the 22nd year is not normality, well, for russia, for russia, but by the way, for reference, while i was on the air, in fact, this is the case in ukraine, think tank adastra, and they published information today that orbán's group in the european parliament will actually be created, and this is announcing what will be there, at least. recruit 39 deputies and the austrian freedom party - six deputies, the danish people's party, the spanish vox, the dutch freedom party,

portuguese the hungarian christian democratic people's party is enough, by the way, the hungarian fidesz and the czech anno-2011, that 's how many of them there are already, it's already seven, that is, in fact, they allegedly announced that a group would either be created or created , or on the way to creation, well, if there are seven parties, then there are seven countries, yes, yes, there should be seven countries according to the regulations, if there are seven countries, then it has already been created. who of the parliament, this is the situation, so in fact, what you are talking about is gradually becoming a reality, and of course, that putin, in that it is advantageous for such politicians to come to moscow, shake his hand, talk with him about something. another statement, if we 're talking about this as well, mr. fico, the prime minister of slovakia, went public for the first time after

he was...assassinated and spent over a month in the hospital, he actually supported orbán and stated that he would join the leader of hungary if he had such an opportunity, that is, this is essentially another person in european politics who is ready to join this formula shaking hands with putin, and actually we can see, without even entering, this is another branch, and this is another, another leader, another politician, also from a small country, who is basically ready to meet putin, talk with him and legitimize him after delegitimization in 2022 and even after delegitimization after the presidential elections, well, i think you see, these are all just the first steps,

you called me these o... parties, let's say, i suddenly remembered that the ultra-right they've always been so for quite a long time a completely marginal political force in the country, and there was only one island, uh, well , data generally consists of the islands of jutland, where they always got most of their anti-immigration policies, i never understood why, because it was a small island where there were never any migrants, but the whole of denmark was brought in by these inhabitants of this island, and this... played a historical role, joined this group and this group became legitimized, so this is an important thing, if we are talking about in general , what to expect from of this conditional group in the european parliament, it is clear that they will not have any decisive role, but it is clear that they will carry some certain theses, some some certain position in the european parliament, or it can be considered that it will be

a certain position if not the russian position, then at least some narratives of the russian federation will appear in the information space and politics of the european union and the chinese people, which is much more dangerous, i would say, because european leaders emmanuel macron was remembered by gongzhou was taking on sitinpins, and now melanie visited george. uh, china, olaf scholz went there, you see, and precisely chinese narratives are even more dangerous than russian ones, because with russia, so to speak, everything is clear, but with china, not everything, and then there is another an important point, it seems to me, it is important for russians, that george meleni, with her obvious anti-russian position , claimed to become the most influential leader of the right-wing radical forces

of the enemy. and now orbán is doing everything to prevent this from happening, to have an alternative, so that these right-wing forces, they, so to speak, separated, and that he himself, perhaps, in the future, would claim the role of the leader of such right-wing forces of an ultra-right character, but he was expelled from the european people's party, and everyone believed that he would go to salute to melon, to le pen, he became... their groups, and now this is a very interesting moment, if it is true that marine le pen will join this party in the european parliament, it will be one story, we will see it after the parliamentary elections above all in france, and if not marine le pen, if marine le pen refuses, and then, let's say, an alternative for germany will enter, ugh, which is a very large faction in the european parliament?