the hot weather will pass, but still there are nuances, so in the western part of ukraine for the next day, i.e. tomorrow, july 10, 30-33° above zero, dry weather is expected. the north of ukraine will also begin to warm up little by little, not just warm up, but more. 31-34 above zero. in the east, it is very hot - 34-37°. in this dry weather with an anticyclonic character is expected in ukraine, 32-37 above zero, very hot in the southern part of ukraine, 34-38°, dry and sunny, high fire danger, be careful, and in kyiv tomorrow too it is hot, the maximum air temperature will fluctuate around +33°, there is no talk of precipitation in such heat, in the near future the heat will last until the end of the week in the south and east. and in many central regions

34-39, possibly even up to +40. here is the synoptic hot situation, of course , keep a close eye on the detailed weather forecasts on the espresso channel. thank you natal sydidenko, we continue the verdict program, i remind you that my name is vasyl zema and we invited andriy dligach to the conversation, he is an economist and a doctor of economic sciences. mr. andriy, congratulations you. actually, i will be today, as much as i don’t like the word average, but let it be a specific ukrainian word for average viewers who will ask the questions that worry me, as a person who pays taxes, buys something in a store, pays utility bills, there are more something, something else, and it is important for me to understand the perspective of the ukrainian economy and the perspective of the ukrainian economy, which has to finance the war, let's say that the ukrainian economy, its taxes are the wages of our military, because if we we don't have anything to finance our soldiers, then eh... communal services and consumer goods basically

lose their meaning, because we have to fight and hold, hold on in this war. how would you rate the current state of the ukrainian economy, positive, negative, threatening, let's hold on, right now, the ukrainian economy as it is, let's hold on, and yes, i don't like the word average either, well, first of all, all ukrainians are not average , because we have experienced so much. i will be like all wonderful ukrainians, all wonderful, this is wonderful, uh, consumer sentiment negative, there the dynamics are negative, it means that people prefer not to spend, save money, er, because they expect that the situation will worsen, do not make large purchases, er, at the same time, they feel a rise in prices, although in fact, if you analyze in detail, follow by... coefficients,

we see that inflationary processes, rising consumer prices, are not so high, so there are well-founded reasons for this: the increase in the price of electricity, a certain devaluation of the hryvnia, we are highly dependent on imported goods in many categories, there are others seasonal factors that affect prices, but in general , all this is included in these projected frameworks, which were also laid down in the state budget and predicted by expert... teams, so i cannot say that there are any troubles here, where there are troubles in fact, there are troubles in relation to business, business is optimistic, business prefers to increase investment, deploy active investment in the defense-industrial complex, instead, from time to time the state, or due to the pressure of security forces, or due to other unfavorable signals, for example, the creation of a white club of business or... by intimidation, raising taxes,

business is rather forced into a waiting phase, instead of actively creating new added value, expanding activities more, business rather stops investment projects that are still in the economy, of course, we do not expect the deployment of negative scenarios with our debt, so our debt is increasing, so there are difficulties with payment... this debt negotiations are ongoing regarding the restructuring are ongoing and i think that they will be successful, well at least all the signals that we we have at the moment, they rather say that it will be possible to find an understanding with our creditors, so i don't see any significant risks here, i'm just clarifying, these creditors, as i understand it, are mainly private investments and or not only there are and state ones, of course, but our problem is to come to an agreement, first of all. with a private one, i mean, i

think that you have some kind of communication, understand there approximately how it is, how it can happen, these people who are negotiating, they can eh? well the people who are responsible for billions, for huge sums, there are bonds, and they must see the perspective for many years ahead, these people, for them, they are the concept of empathy, well, is it now only in these negotiations, with those, well, in a sense, we have a war, we have people die, who are dominated by the concept of empathy, it is certainly easier to negotiate with them, but if we correctly imagine, it is not just one person who makes decisions, there are also shareholders in the majority of the fund. who are our creditors, there is also a whole decision-making system, there is no emotional factor, of course, there is a calculation, a basic what is the calculation, you can lose everything in ukraine, which is waging a war, if ukraine

reaches the final stage of default, i.e. cannot pay, then you have lost everything, everything you borrowed in this country, well, who, who wants it, no one, so rather they agree on some... advantageous terms for the postponement of these payments, so that, if they lose, they lose the minimum, those people who deal with finance know very clearly that it is better to have smaller losses than keep holding on to something that will give you more losses in the future, money has its own money value in time, and therefore the vast majority of such decisions on deferral of loans, it is adopted positively. let's talk about the topic of economic reservation, well, now the tension in this matter has subsided a little, but the president recently spoke about 14 brigades that do not have weapons, now it was actually discussed somewhere, we estimated about 70 thousand people who

were mobilized, those who are suitable undergo training, i understand that this has already happened and now after the adoption of the law on mobilization, before this we understand that the military-political command understands how much... is needed now, how much will be needed in the future, how much needs to be prepared, how many people need to know that they are on the register and they are suddenly ready somewhere, their age, their fact, well, all of this should be in front of your eyes, so as not to run around and then catch people on the streets and ask who you are, what is your military accounting specialty, this is important, on the other hand, it is important that the economy has specialists, and also works, although now in many areas women replace men there is something else. people from retirement may be returning, working, and i want to ask whether it is now possible to sell, i know that such communication took place between business and the government, whether it is possible to find points of contact and explain to the government why economic reservation is not when someone is bought out from

the military, and that's something different, and at least business is all about something different, that you give us the opportunity to continue to work and pay taxes, and we give you the opportunity to have money ... to fund the military, which you raise today and increase it number, or are you changing those who have already fought there, you need other people to come, is it not possible to explain this and find this contact? first of all, thank you for the very correct points, the only thing i want to correct is, in fact, we have a completely common position with the government, all the models that are proposed, most of the models that are proposed, they were agreed with the government, we actually worked in a joint team with the ministry of economy in... making the key base model that we have at the moment is the reservation model of critical personnel under the conditions of establishing a certain level of salaries not lower than 35 00, what actually we together with the ministry of economy calculated, substantiated and submitted

further for the consideration of other ministries and the cabinet as a whole, where this idea got stuck on the adoption of a political decision, yes, of course , the cabinet of ministers could... make this decision by itself without the verkhovna rada, the basic model, it is included in the current legislative field, but as far as i understand, there is no such political decision so far from the president, why the president hesitates to make this decision, to me it is not known for sure, but i can only have a hypothesis that, first of all, because the president and his team do not see a unified public opinion, who in society is against, we, we are constantly... situations, i also have sociological companies , who are constantly monitoring, and we survey the business constantly, the business has support at the level of 95%, economic booking models, in fact , the booking of critical personnel,

the vast majority of people in society already also support this, i am convinced that in the comments to our today's videos will be those who is against, and i love it, of course, i ask, i appeal to you, i comment... i will definitely answer everyone and try to justify why the feathers or the myths of economic reservation are not real, and with ... after all, the military, now we mostly try to communicate with the military, with commanders, explaining why economic armoring will have a positive effect on mobilization. we are not allowed by the top management or from the top management, although i am at the level of brigade brigades, brigades of battalions, commanders of brigades and battalions, i would like of course with the top management to have such a dialogue, we are ready, we are ready to show why this is positive. phenomenon and in fact we negotiate with the military, why? because firstly,

the reservation of critical personnel does not reduce the mobilization potential, we have 4.9 million. economic reservation will apply to a maximum of 500 thousand, that is, about 10% of the potential that we have, that is , there will definitely not be a negative, because for the year there is order for mobilization of 200,000 people, accordingly, all this can be implemented, but... the second question: does this mobilization need to be financed? model, which we proposed, makes it possible to increase income to the state budget in the form of taxes by uah 165 billion due to salary increases and partial decenization of salaries. 165 billion, here is the money for arming these 14 brigades and financing the increase of the ukrainian army. the third point, very important, is that now we cannot defeat russia in numbers, we need to... technologicalize the armed forces and have a more motivated military, which

means that we have to speed up the mobilization process through the recruiting system, recruiting gives both motivation and improvement, better protected, better armed, you always have more chances on the battlefield, and because we keep critical personnel for the business, the business says, for us, the critical personnel is well 15%, a maximum of men, which we need, we can replace them with women mainly. whether to have the adaptation of veterans about the whole business is ready to carry it out quickly or somewhere we will focus on older people, bring back people who are now retired, because well, these are our realities, but i'm sorry, there key personnel that we have invested a long time in his training, who have a key competence that is very difficult to find in the market, and accordingly we need the business to keep this one, this is the key personnel, exclusively. it's about him, no sane entrepreneur will give

someone the opportunity to buy off through him, because he needs to keep the key staff, because of which the private supporter who does his business, absolutely, so this is the key idea here, if the business is saved, then he will be able to finance the defense industry complex, will save donations, and donations are uah 200 billion according to our calculations, which go directly to the army, so i always ask... the commander, the military, ask that businessman with whom you have a direct relationship, who helps you with sniper rifles whether with thermal imagers or with ammunition or with something else, ask him what is his key problem now, what does he need help with, and i will assure you that the key answer will be this: not money, we will deal with the pressure of the security forces somehow, the only thing that we have non-renewable, this these are key personnel, please allow us to retain key personnel, limited numbers. and then we will be able to continue technologicalizing our armed forces, and you know this, like when they say, yes, the rich

will be bought off, i just always say that a person who receives uah 35,000 is a poor person, just poor and that's all, even , well, i don’t know, maybe there are some countries where people live for a dollar in ukraine and, unfortunately, there are different circumstances, i don’t want to say that anyone, but we just saw the story with gennady bogolyubov, yes, which now the case was opened there, he went abroad, and now the border. who released him, he left there with a fake passport, he also has a case against him, but it doesn't matter anymore, a really rich person went abroad with a different document, bought himself a ticket, he was not registered as a person who crossed the border, that , who had real money, was really rich and remains obviously rich, he left for the border and no one shouted on facebook and did not talk about the fact that it was treason, because he, excuse me, wanted to spit on ours with you opinion, he has money and...he has solved this issue, this is when we talk about rich people, really people who have enough finances, the only comment that i want, well

, first of all, i don't want our society scolded the rich, being rich should be the norm, we all have it, and now we rushed, rushed to collect, we have already collected hundreds of millions of hryvnias for okhmadit, it is wonderful that there are rich people in the country, who at the same time remain patriots, who remain honest people, and let there be more of them. in what is really a current system, note that there is no current one critical staff booking, no economy booking and still there are those who are being bought out, now in the current conditions. so, economicization does not go to the budget, 2 billion dollars, mr. natalukha, the head of the economic committee estimated the corruption issue in the reservation system at this amount, we want to destroy this system, we want to reduce corruption, 2 billion dollars goes into the pockets of certain officials who make documents, it's not taxes that we're going to get, we're saying let's

put it in taxes, and let's not make it so that the rich can buy off, but so that... we could reserve critical staff, if there are rich people there, well great, they pay a lot of taxes and that's good, because what do we have instead, we have instead a situation where 14 brigades have already been recruited, which are no longer in business, that is, they do not pay taxes, instead we already withhold them through our taxes paid, if they cannot be directed to the front or help our armed forces at the moment, it means that the state has lost twice. and in taxes, in income, and in expenses, and we we want to make it so that they have weapons, so that the mobilization system is built in this way, so that we, as a state, receive money and buy weapons for them, logically, quite logically, but why, why, and why oppose such an idea, i i don't understand, but i am waiting for your comments, i will definitely answer, you know,

about a few months ago, i think that the situation has not changed much, the ukrainian defense industry had more than 200... hryvnias of manufactured weapons that the ukrainian ministry of defense could not purchase. because there was no money, on 230 billion, of course, these are not armed forces, these are armored vehicles, these are certain forces and means, well, we are currently collecting there espresso tv channel 4 million for atvs from scratch to life, to export 4 million, you can take this money and believe that this atvs will be more effective than a person with tuberculosis or with a heart operation, who is perfectly fit and generally a good man, who er... will be in the hospital three days after mobilization, because he no longer pays taxes on him, he is no longer at work , and there is no point in it, it is me, well, these colors thicken somewhat, but also this also happens, and about these 2 billion or how many billions that go into the pockets of various people, i also understand that for many people in various positions, now is a great time to get rich, they

will never have more such time in their lives and will not happen, and they risk everything to collect this money, i also understand that, but if we talk about... the behavior of politicians, i believe in the wisdom of president zelensky in this story, again, it will be his decision and the decision of the parliament , who has to make a certain decision, but i once as a journalist, i watched a heart operation, there is a glass dome in the amosov hospital, you can watch the heart being operated on from there, i watch the surgeon work, you know, no one advised him, they gave him cotton wool, that, that, that's all, but he didn't have any advisors on his side, how he should act better, and he didn't think about how his relatives are reacting now, whether he did rostin right or wrong, he needed to save... a person and perform an operation, so the politicians are now in the situation when this operation needs to be completed in order for the country to survive, and we need to act here just right, not the way someone wants or doesn't want. and i would very much like that we would first have such readiness for adult conversation in society and that we would obey less by emotions and

more by calculation. what is the key question for me now? this is a question of justice itself. justice is social. good, how are we now to use each person in the most effective way for the country? that's what we have to think about. yes, and i would like to, you and i were just talking in front of ether, while we were waiting here, while we will be shown, and about what, it is worth talking about the fact that in russia there is an economy, with prospects, because we are constantly promoted this narrative that russia has unlimited resources, can fight for 150 thousand years and, in general, still there in... . the sun will go out, and russia will still fight, but i know that there are also trends that indicate that putin also needs to buy time, he wants to achieve the desired result as soon as possible, so what are the risks and threats to the russian economy , for the russian labor market? we analyze in detail and situation in russia, of course

there is potential and safety margin in russia, sanctions are working, and this reserve is yours. is being depleted very quickly, for example, the national welfare fund in russia is exhausted, its liquid part is half, and according to the results of this year another quarter will be depleted, so instead of almost 9 trillion rubles, they currently have less than five, and will to have approximately 2-2, that is, they have exhausted this resource, the issue of oil and gas revenues, in a situation where opec is also increasing. does not fulfill its own quotas and increases livestock, and i am convinced that there will be a certain agreement with iran, and venezuela is increasing sales, accordingly we will have more. offer lower prices, russia will not be able to hide behind this even because the price ceiling works, russia cannot withdraw rupees from india, at which it sells, and

financial sanctions on chinese banks, in fact, also destroy russia's ability to operate with the yuan, so the combination of all these factors leads to the fact that russia's economic opportunities to wage war are really shrinking, they financed it by 80%. they even financed military expenditures on the military-industrial complex, and the economic effect of these significant expenditures has also subsided, there is no such economic growth as they hoped, corruption, inefficiency, bugs, many reasons, so they have nothing to expect in this area either, that's how they technologicalized their own army, that's how they again increased the distance from ukraine in terms of drones, i hope that it's something... an owl, but these are, well, let's put it this way, agonizing phenomena, is there a resource for the 25th year, there is, on 26th, i think so too, but it's limited

resource, russia will definitely be able to wage war indefinitely, even with the help of north korea, even with the help of iran, but i hope that it will be less and less. accordingly, yes, indeed, we will not win quickly in an economic way, the key decision will not be in negotiations, not in the economic sphere, but on the battlefield. therefore, we have to technology the armed forces and improve the management system there faster than russia, this is a question for us, inflationary processes are unfolding in parallel in russia, inflation is already unfolding at almost 1% per week, so russia is losing human capital at a fast pace, well, i would not even want to compare what is really capital in ukraine, what, what we, russia, are losing. is losing, well, a living resource, let's say this, although they have a mobilization potential of 25 million, five times more than in ukraine, well

, after all, personal, financial, and trade sanctions are working, and in russia there are fewer and fewer opportunities to sell, but the only thing that is not working effectively enough so far is the secondary sanctions, which should prevent the supply of dual-use products in russia. we find russia. the ability to receive chips and many other things that allow them to have the technology of troops. well, it is not a big secret here, but in these missiles, which, by the way, also arrived in okhmadit yesterday, the kha-101, there were western components and even the united states of america, but this does not mean that the government of the united states of america gave it good for their sale, they sell somewhere there, let's say, some conventional refrigerator or something else, then they use those chips from various of the various household appliances there and so on, of course, that... they set up whole offices that buy certain things in different countries, let's say the arabian peninsula, southeast asia, there in central asia, where else they sit and buy, buy, buy

some bogus horn companies and hoofs, it’s understandable, and of course i can’t help but ask, because today there was a statement from the government that the shutdown schedules may change, in general, well, in the near future , starting from the end of july and beyond... but we understand that autumn and winter await us, because with all the disadvantages, especially for people who have hypertension, heart problems, some other things, and of course, now without light it is very difficult, children are small, sick people, this is absolutely a question, i see when people go up on foot, sometimes i want take those women in your arms and carry them up the stairs, but this is the reality, but autumn, winter, especially cold, it is clear that the situation can worsen many times, in your opinion, for your information, again, are they being conducted, without saying where and how certain works to minimize... these are energy risks the consequences of the energy destruction caused by the enemy to the ukrainian system, which he may continue to cause and in the future, work

is underway, there are even several cities that are self-sufficient, there is an excellent solution for implementation in zhytomyr, in khmelnytskyi, in short, there are solutions that allow decentralized at the city level. a way to have your own generation, cogeneration of both heat and electricity, will this be enough, of course not, you need to restore generation at the central level and have a greater margin of safety, but in fact everything we will not be able to restore before winter, moreover, the business expects a reduction in the load of production capacities due to the lack of electricity by 10% of points, currently loaded production capacities will be 45. 34-35% loaded, this is negative, so the business actually ordered 100 hectares of gas piston generators, the business carries a lot of diesel generators. gasoline

generators, so i think that economic sustainability will still be achieved in this area, we have literally two minutes there, but i would also like to ask then whether prospects of the ukrainian hryvnia, whether it will still depend in many respects on whether we will succeed in reaching an agreement or not, or to what extent the restructuring of its debts will be agreed upon, or what, well, what to expect, because there is this information that two the currency has been more expensive in recent days, it is clear that this is not a critical thing, but in principle. can we talk about some prospects now, and you are actually talking about the fact that people are now trying to save somewhere, either in foreign currency or in some other things, that's it the truth is putting pressure on the exchange rate, but i would not say that the situation is close to catastrophic, it is very far from it, the banking system is stable, the national bank even lowers the discount rate, which significantly improves the lending situation,

but it can do that. how much controls the exchange rate of the hryvnia, affects it, and i think that the national bank will not allow a significant devaluation, and there are many other economic circumstances that say that, while we have significant currency inflows, we will now receive 50 billion from future revenues frozen of russian assets, a program with the european union is already in place, according to which this year we receive so, the inflow of currency into the country is significant, and because of this we do not have a currency deficit, the exchange rate cannot fall significantly, and by the way, do you estimate how much is being transferred now the number of people who went to ukraine from abroad is significantly less, if before the war, before the large-scale war, it was about 16 billion dollars a year, now the vast majority of this money remains in the west, but we have other sources

of income, grants and loans from international partners, but this money is ukrainian, unfortunately, now the economy of some european union countries is growing, and some people are simply surviving, but we understand, okay. thank you very much for participating, thank you for a difficult but important conversation, andriy dligach, economist, doctor of economic sciences, was with us in this studio, it was the verdict program, well, i literally don’t know how much time is left, i just want to tell you that in any case we are expected... then we are already living in trials, some to a greater extent, some to a lesser extent during there for more than 10 years, mostly for two or more years, but in any case in this situation, well, exactly when you know, they say about these bridges, opportunities for ukraine in relation to nato, and i know what we have in us part of the blood of the vikings who once came to kievan rus, when they sailed to some land that they wanted

to conquer, they burned their boats in order to... not return, or die, or stay there, well, actually, this is , probably should be our policy now, if we are not talking about ships, but about bridges, then probably it is worth burning what is behind us, because there is definitely nowhere to turn back, there is bloody putin, who is even ready to kill ukrainian children in order to achieve his goal, we have to achieve our goal, thank you, goodbye until tomorrow, take care, be with espresso, bbc news in a few moments, bye.

what will the russian attack on okhmadid change in western support for ukraine, how will the partner countries react to such russian aggression, or will they increase aid? we are talking about all this on the bbc live from london. i am yevgenia shedlovska. western countries condemned russian attack on a children's hospital in kyiv. a terrible reminder of russian brutality, said president biden, nato agent jens stoltenberg called the attack a disgusting attack and promised at the nato summit, which begins in washington, that a decision will be made and support for ukraine will be strengthened. the summit will last three days. the leaders of all 32 countries of the alliance will gather for it, and president zelensky will be there.