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tv   [untitled]    July 14, 2024 9:00pm-9:31pm EEST

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firstly, and secondly, we need to know how this situation looks, of course, precisely from the point of view of the neighboring countries, because these countries, unlike the countries of the west there, unlike the countries of western europe, unlike the countries the south of europe, they have their own experience of coexistence or existence in the soviet empire, in the russian empire, and part of poland, the baltic countries, they were part of the russian empire, later... we know, there the baltic countries were occupied by the soviet union in 1940, and poland became part of the so-called socialist camp, and therefore they have a clear understanding of what they are dealing with when it comes to moscow, and to what extent in moscow they generally understand the language of common sense, and how much they respect the language of power, all this is their very important experience , and that's absolutely. it seems to me that we
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now perceive these states as the most serious lobbyists of our interests in the european union, in nato, despite any controversy there on historical issues, on economic issues, how much we talked about these economic issues with poland, and we understand that the european integration of ukraine will, of course, take place in such discussions that... poland and society and the government will protect their own economic interests, by and large, this may all take additional time, even with european integration of ukraine, and this must also be understood, of course , but along with this, there is an awareness, if you will, an awareness of this, an understanding of the situation, it is there, and it is this understanding of the situation that must be used. because we
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see that the public opinion is precisely in the neighboring ones countries, it is aimed at supporting ukraine, that there is a large part of society in neighboring countries that understands all the dangers of moscow, even in those countries whose governments, as you know, quite often conduct pro-russian policies, we often talk here about the role of prime ministers - minister of hungary viktor orbán, who... recently visited not only kyiv, but also moscow and beijing, by the way, met in the united states with donald trump, who was the main character of our conversation just a few minutes ago, and of course, all this is about ukraine agreed to the russian conditions for the end of the war, we understand that perfectly, but along with that, on the day when orbán met with trump there, the leader of the hungarian opposition... tisza party, peter madir, who
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we consider the main opposition figure in hungary, he came to kyiv precisely to express the support of the ukrainian people on behalf of the hungarian society, a huge part of the leading hungarian politicians there, the mayor of budapest always express solidarity with ukraine, that is, it cannot be said that orban is in this policy orientation towards putin, that he expresses a position. the whole of hungarian society, no, it's not like that, the same applies to slovakia, we saw that during the change of power in slovakia, the current prime minister of slovakia, robert fitza, he was such a supporter of reducing aid to ukraine, but this is not the opinion of the entire slovak society, it is the opinion of only a part of the part that simply won the parliamentary and presidential elections today. so, mr. mykola, let's go back to the history of the ukrainian legions and their prospects oh... the ukrainian legion is, as i said,
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an initiative of the ukrainian side, and the fact that the poles help in this is of course a good thing, because there are a lot of men on the territory of poland who are afraid to return to ukraine for one reason or another, but would like to protect ukraine, this is a certain guarantee for them that they will be in such a joint, own community, and that is why they enroll there, i think the same will be the case in other countries that will allow... to create such regions and teach ukrainians, and then these ukrainians will one way or another come to fight in ukraine, that is, if they want to or how should it look? you need to ask the ministry of defense, but there is no other point in training ukrainians abroad in parts of the ukrainian army if they are not going to defend ukraine, right? well, obviously, yes, i understand that. and how do polish-ukrainian relations with this new government look today? can we talk about any
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significant changes or rather about the continuation of the policy, which is not, there are definitely changes, maybe they are not as fast as before, there were pluses in the previous ones. the pis government, because when the full-scale invasion first began, we remember that the polish government supported us, accepted a lot of ukrainians, then in the pre-election period , border blockades began and the confederation began, but the pis did nothing, trying to place responsibility in the future for what is happening to tusk's future government. it was difficult for tusk's government to deal with this, now it will be key in our admission to the european union. because poland together with germany and france are actually becoming the pillars of the european union, especially when we cannot predict what will happen in the united states of america, and great britain, after the change of government, supports the european union in great britain, special relations with poland
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too, then the role of poland in the eu will be very large, and that is why tusk will help us in the defense sphere, but in the economic sphere there may be problems, and of course there are various provocateurs, for example, when he voted... on the issue of recognizing the resettlement of the crimean tatars as genocide, and the coalition and the opposition in the largest opposition, peace , supported this decision, they all voted for it, but the confederation party, for example, showed its completely pro-russian face and all voted against, so these pro-russian forces inside poland, of course, we will hear about their existence again , especially since the confederation entered the european union. formed a joint party group with an alternative for germany, which orbán's supporters did not even accept, right? so, of course, there will be problems in polish society, but we must say that, in general , polish society supports ukraine, will support it in the european union, the largest political
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parties will support ukraine, we need to be friends with poland, but agree on economic cooperation in the eu, defending our own interests, and problems will arise here. well , in fact, these same problems have not been resolved to this day, we see how from time to time they block the borders again, from time to time they will once again present certain claims of an economic nature to export ukrainian products through poland, i'm not even saying poland. well, yes, there is an embargo, that's all, and, oddly enough, in the situation of these debates, the ukrainian side is right, because... if we limit our right to be in the european union, or to accept us there with various quotas, then the question arises, why is it the european union in ukraine at all, but at the same time poland is definitely our biggest ally in the defense sphere, and considering the fact that the defense policy
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of the european union will grow, here poland will support ukraine and do it almost the most of all other countries that are in the european union, so it is necessary to lead. there is a lot to work with the poles, and i hope that it will be so, but the day after tomorrow the visit of the ukrainian group of parliamentarians, which cooperates with polish parliamentarians, begins, this is the first such visit to poland after the elections, we will have a lot of important meetings with the government leadership, and the parliament, and the commission, and the ministries, so that there should be cooperation at all levels, both at the parliamentary, governmental, and presidential levels, and we are working for this, and please tell me, principles... can we now talk about the fact that the societies of the central countries of central europe are already tired of this war, or is it different from what we see, let's say, in the west and in the south of europe? well
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, we lost contact again, and this is also an important topic, because... support for ukraine depends on public support, and this is very important for understanding what the interests of the allies are, and mr. mykola, please , i don't know if you can hear me now, i lost connection during our conversation, i started the beginning of your question, does it feel fatigue from the war, well, from supporting ukraine, as it differs in central europe and in western europe, let's say. well, you see, we've lost that connection again, but we're going to take a break now for a few minutes and resume after the break. tingling,
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makes do with a parliament in which no one has a majority. happens full chaos. in my opinion, france is entering an era, probably the most unstable politically in the last, well, 10 years to be exact. macron has the feeling that he is a little detached from reality and he could not accept it for a long time. the results of these elections, first of all, he was silent for a long time, relatively long, we learned the results last sunday, the president addressed the french only on wednesday, and he did not do it in a televised address, as usual, he wrote a letter, which was then published in the press, and in to this letter he says that no party has won, that is a fact, but he also alludes to the fact that the government should be formed by the republican forces and by that... he actually points to the unconquered, this is
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an ultra-right, ultra, excuse me, ultra-left party that belongs to the alliance of left forces, and it is an integral part of it, because they took the most seats, well, they took like the ultra-left, the ultra-left party within this alliance, and macron in his letter actually rejects the possibility of their participation in the future government, and this is... a big problem, because in fact france finds itself in a situation where it is really necessary to govern no one, no party is this magical numbers 289 places. and therefore france has weeks, if not months, ahead of it, well such very serious ones, well, first the french will go on vacation, but from september , well, serious parliamentary battles will begin in the parliament, and it may simply end with the fact that no laws will be passed in the country, the country will not will function, this is now the scenario
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we are approaching, in principle, how will this situation develop in... non-functioning of the country, that is, there will be no government, who will rule the country then? the scenario is as follows, now, in any case, he has until july 18 the national assembly to work, july 18 , the first, the first plenary meeting of the new assembly, at which the president of the national assembly is to be elected, and from this date the moment when france needs a government is counted, it seems they have two weeks to form the first proposal and.. . and the olympics are starting in the country, that is, it is also a very specific moment when it is quite difficult to postpone the formation of the government to september or august, so it is necessary to decide quickly, and the calendar now consists in the fact that the alliance of left forces that came as a result of the race after all, they are the first, even if they do not have
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an absolute majority, they have 182 deputies, this is the minimum number, they should offer emmanuel macron a person for the position of prime minister. so far, neither the left can agree among themselves, nor does macron express great enthusiasm for the next prime minister to be someone from the left. the second scenario is if macron decides that macron has 168 seats in the parliament in his power, and the republicans have 45. he can unite with the republicans. they will not have the magic number 289 either, but will be more than the left one alliance it is technically possible to do this and macron's government can do it together with the republicans. but the legitimacy of this government, if you imagine the ministers from the republicans, in which there are only 45 seats, well, this is a very illegitimate government, because
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the french voters obviously slapped the republicans, they said: here you have 45 seats, which is many times less than before. therefore, if it is not too well, this scenario is quite specific, therefore macron is waiting, he is waiting for proposals from the left forces, and these are quarreling among themselves according to the french tradition and to propose a name so far they can't, well, that is, i understand that the leftists were able to unite among themselves only in order to stop the far-right, that's all, their understanding has ended, absolutely, and the most problematic part of this alliance still remains the unconquered, it ... the party of jean-luc mélenchon, who in france is considered a radical left-wing politician, according to his statements, according to his ideology, according to his traditional-historical interests and closeness to venezuela, closeness to putin, is quite such an odious figure, which in france evokes a lot of emotion and very
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little compromise, and this is exactly what the role of the invincibles in the left alliance plays. this role of a lighter that ignites all discussions, it is impossible to get rid of the unconquered, because they have 74 seats out of 182 seats of the entire alliance, 59 seats of the socialists, that is, it is the largest party in the ranks of the left alliance, to ignore them just like that, while the voters after all , they were given these mandates, it is very difficult, and this is precisely where the biggest conflict is now, both between... the leftists themselves, and in the relationship between macron and the left alliance, therefore the figure who will offer the position of prime minister must be a compromise figure, and so far there is no such name, because they cannot come to an agreement, because the unconquered block all proposals from the socialists and greens, and the green socialists block
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offers from the unconquered, and the worst thing about this is that it frees the lp's hands. which is just sitting and waiting for 2027, because the left has failed again, macron has failed again, and 2027 is the year, why not now give a chance to le pen, who at least does not quarrel in her political ranks with no one, they have a very clear policy, everyone understands what they want to achieve, that's why there are quarrels, they play into the hands of the far right in france, i understand that macron would like to come to an agreement with the left. without melanchon, that's right, without melanchon's party, but then he doesn't have a majority either, right, arithmetically, or there is, that, that, there's no majority either, and the problem is that you can't negotiate with... the left without melanchon, because the vote was held by the alliance, the french who gave their strength for the candidates, for the candidates from the left forces on the ground in each individual
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taken district, even if in their district the candidacy was from the invincibles, they voted for the left, even if they did not agree, perhaps with the entire policy of the invincibles, so just like that, take and throw away political power from the alliance formed before the vote, this will be unprecedented for france, that is why these negotiations have been going on for so long and they cannot come to an agreement, because if it were so simple to throw out the invincibles, maybe everything would have happened much easier, but the question is one of reputation, a question of trust in the voters, a question of what if the left alliance this is how he behaves now, then will the french voters trust him in the future, it is not so simple, and that, well, besides, if it is carried out... the victims must be counted mathematically, but it seems that they will not have an absolute majority either, well, here’s what happens, at first after the first round they said macron announced elections and lost, after the second round
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you see, he won, now again, when they started, the formation of power begins, again he is on the verge of losing, what other options can he win, macron himself personally did not lose in the plan that he remains president until 2027, implement international policy. which is his prerogative, he can go on and on, and i have a theory that that's exactly what he 's focusing on right now, because this frustration of domestic politics, which in any scenario, is not in his favor, well, he's not will be able to push through the laws that he wants to push, because it is trivial, even if there is an alliance with the left, they will have to negotiate, they will have to make compromises, and he will not be able to continue to introduce everything he wants to introduce in france internally, leaves. foreign policy, israel, gaza, ukraine remain, and we know that macron is a very ambitious politician, and he, well, somewhere sees in himself this
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mission, this vision, of international politics, of the international arena, in which he should play an important role, and precisely he will deal with this in the coming years, which is good news for ukraine, but even for this he needs, if not a functional parliament, then at least a functional cabinet of ministers. he needs a good, good, means obedient, ready to follow his line, the minister of defense, he needs an obedient minister of europe and foreign affairs, and these issues are also being raised now, and they are extremely important, if it will be a representative of the left forces, there are no major differences on foreign policy issues, unless what if it's going to be a retarded candidate, some very specific one that advocates sending less. weapons to ukraine, this can happen, but for now, from those names that appear in the media , someone more is planned for the positions of europe and defense
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moderate, because it is an important, important priority for france. if we talk about the far-right, how are they now enduring this defeat of theirs, they were clearly sure that they would be able to form a government, what was happening in the environment, there was a moment of shock, there was a moment of unequivocal shock, not... how did it happen, of very great frustration , all polls told them what would happen, the only question was whether there would be an absolute majority or a simple majority, so the shock was very strong, but the specifics of the national front of the far right in france in because unlike the left, they are very mobilized and they stick together, basically they stick together and think strategically, this party is not... it is a large party, but 90% of the people are very- very young politicians, who are representatives of public society, are
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people who joined the ranks of the far-right, due to some ideological convictions, and only 10 percent are such a skeleton of people who have been in the party for many years, and among themselves they all clearly know where they need to move, and this is the year 2027, they are already thinking in advance, they already... know that, well, we lost this battle, but we will win the war, and for them the next reference point is the year 2027, and just then we also see that they are also focusing on europe quite seriously, recently we learned that the far-right french will join viktor orbán's group, which forms a force that has already become the third largest in the european parliament, it is a force precisely thanks, precisely thanks to her... to the national association of marine lippen, so that they don't exist, don't there would be no third force, absolutely, absolutely, and that is why it is noticeable that of these elections, of these strategic steps, that
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they are already thinking one step ahead. they already understand that many, many issues will be resolved at the european level, this is migration, this is gas, this is ukraine, this is energy, these are a lot of questions that are of interest to lpn voters, and they understand, well, we have no love in the national assembly, enough, we will still be able to express our opinions a little there, veto, put, not vote for laws, but now we will focus on diversifying, so to speak, our assets. there is also a european one parliament, why did we forget about it, but let's remember, here we also have the opportunity to play such serious, serious cards, that's why this party, no matter what we think about it and no matter how much we may not agree with its ideology , organizationally they win and are much more united than macron's party, which, by the way, is also currently being created on a large number of issues, not to mention
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the alliance of left forces. and what will be the fate of gabriel atal, when the prime minister of france, who, as i understand it, is forced to leave his post after a short stay, you considered him such a real star of the political life of france that now he will simply head the faction of macron's party in the parliament? it is a lot to actually lead macron's faction, he was the only candidate, he was voted for, he leads the faction, this is not a political career setback, let's say, he will grow not in geometric progression to the position of president, a little... slower, but he does not disappear from politics, he very clearly guessed the moment when to distance himself from macron, i was impressed by his speech after announcement of the election results, in which he said: i did not choose this vote, but i refused to be a victim of it, and i led our political force to a result that is a worthy result, better than we hoped, and by that he , he showed...
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a certain distance with emmanuel macron, and he will grow, i am convinced of this, as an individual strong politician, because he has proven himself seriously, very solidly in front of the french, and in the debates, he has grown many times, and he the fact that he remains in parliament and he will be the leader of the faction, that only the game is in his favor, it can stop his development a little, and he is no longer the favorite against macron, because macron now has problems of a completely different scale, but... but i still believe in his political career , because his popularity among the french is higher than that of macron, at least, that is, we can actually say that when the next presidential elections are held, the far-right candidate we know is marine le pen, and the far-left candidate we know is jean-luc melenchaud, nothing will change , and these are the very people who were opponents of macron, two election cycles in a row, in the situation with...
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what we see now in, if you will, in the political life of france, if we are talking about the centrists, then we will be dealing with a new candidate, because the macron term is over, so absolutely yes, it will be either the macron candidate or edouard philippe, the former mayor who now belongs to the centrist group and a very strong voice who also distances himself from macron. he, for example, advocates an alliance with the republicans, for a complete rejection of the left alliance, and for such pushing for a minority government, but with centrists with classic right-wing forces. edouard philippe is serious about 2027, but the successor of macron in the sense that macron will say that my successor philippe, i tell you to vote for him, this scenario will probably not happen, because they have dissolved a lot
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in their time too. thank you, thank you, for this story, we, maria oleksiyev, journalist, employee of the state television channel in france, and now we will move from france to india, we will talk on our air with alina hrytsenko, doctor of philosophy in political science, chief consultant of the national institute for strategic studies. so, mrs. alina, we welcome you, good evening, and let's talk about this visit to render fashion, fashion to kyiv, tell me, please, if the results of this to kyiv, to moscow, what i'm talking about, to moscow, if to sum up the results of this visit, well, yes, i haven't made it to kyiv yet, unfortunately, on a rendromody, but not all is lost, well , let's go.

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