donate to the collection from zero to life for quad bikes for the 93rd kholodny yar brigade in the direction of chasiv yar. glory to ukraine, dear tv viewers, on espresso tv channel, studio zahid program, we will analyze the most important events of this week, in particular , we will try to predict how american, and therefore global , politics may change. due to the no longer ephemeral coming to power of donald trump in the united states. our guests today are matthew bryza and andrii pionkovskyi. the tv channel is now on the air espresso will be worked by bryza, former adviser to the secretary of state of the united states, former director of european and eurasian affairs at the us national security council. glory to ukraine, dear mr. ambassador, glad to see you. glory to heroes. well, the assassination and attempt on candidate donald trump. we understand that

there are much more questions in this story than it seems at first glance, but the key story is how it can affect not just domestic american stability, how it can affect global world politics and in particular the russian-ukrainian war, we understand that now donald trump, thanks to his injured ear, he now feels almost the winner of the race, and this also worries us because ... that the current president of the united states can act as a so-called lame duck, this is a dangerous situation, first of all for of ukraine. i think the impact of the assassination will not be long-lasting in terms of the sympathy it will generate among the american electorate. so the immediate effect is of course to galvanize trump supporters, and i think he's certainly caught the attention of a lot of people. undecided voters looking so strong and'. but the real problem

lies in the weakness, physical and mental weakness of president biden, who is now, unfortunately, suffering from the coronavirus. i think that after the debate with donald trump, biden looks to the american people too physically weak to do his job, or even win the election. i think that's how it is. as long as biden remains the democratic nominee, i think it's almost 100% certain that donald trump will be... the next president, and in there is still some time for the democrats to either nominate another candidate, like camila garis, she is the most obvious, or have a short, something like mini primaries, where several democrat candidates could compete against each other and try to become the nominee, but that would require , for president biden to agree to resign. so, again, to sum it all up, the assassination of trump gave him some short-term...

support, but i think in a few weeks people will forget about the assassination and all that they it will be remembered that trump seems much stronger physically and mentally than biden. yes, i agree, both candidates are, so to speak, not of the first political freshness, but the situation can be, well, just kidding, critical for ukraine, so we already have a new vice president of the united states, and we understand that he was not one of the sympathizers of ukraine. donald trump. promises to offer his plan, donald trump's plan will always rest on what and who rules in the kremlin, so this is a very, very difficult situation, but, as you see the unfolding of the current situation, when we are talking about the ukrainian issue and the russian-ukrainian war in the united states, that is, these are now extremely hot, extremely hot months, they can be decisive, and putin never... this window opportunities

yes, sorry, forgot to answer this question. first, on a cautiously optimistic note, it's important to look very closely at what vice presidential candidate j.d. vance has said about russia's war against ukraine and the nato alliance. the good news is that jd vance, unlike president trump, has never questioned the importance or value of the nato alliance, nor has he ever said that... he doesn't want ukraine to win the war, or that he wants russia not to lose . he didn't say such things. his main argument was that the united states should not give ukraine such a disproportionate amount of aid, much more than the us's european allies, because the european allies live next door to ukraine. he makes the argument that if european allies continued to spend on defense after the cold war over the last 30 years at the -- at the same rate that

they've been spending, they would have spent, he said, about $8.6 billion more on defense than they've been spending, and so he argues that if. .. the usa spends about 1 trillion dollars a year on defense, and the europeans in general lag behind by 8.6 trillion, so they must catch up, in other words, they must catch up with the usa. however, in any case, it is clear that jd vance will support the president's position trump regarding ukraine. yes, trump has repeatedly said that even before he takes office, he will essentially pressure both sides to push for a... ceasefire, regardless of whether that means ukraine having to give up its territory , which was occupied by russia, and you know that trump has obviously always had sympathy for vladimir putin, as well as other strongmen of this world, like viktor orbán. it is currently unknown what exactly is included in

trump's plan, but orbán, as we know, visited trump right after the nato summit, declaring afterwards that he knew trump's plan, and therefore orbán went to meet with... with putin. it appears that orbán is trying to play some kind of intermediary role in the implementation of trump's plan, but the bottom line is that if trump wins, we will definitely not see the same level of support as the $60 billion that was ultimately acceptable to ukraine. actually, we in ukraine would not like to be cheated by big and powerful world players. we understand that the issue of the russian -ukrainian war is not only a bilateral russian-ukrainian issue, it is an issue on... around which the whole world is currently working, only a large part of that world, unfortunately, can support putin, and accordingly, what should we do right now so that we are not replaced by those people who will support this plan of viktor orban, in fact, this plan is most likely agreed upon both

in moscow and beijing, it is not easier for us in ukraine, and we just have to survive and win, and actually i would like to ask you what is the danger, so... from another plan viktor orban and whether there are any prospects for trying this plan in general push, promote, impose on ukraine those environments that may be related to trump, may not be related, but if orbán's plan is being talked about so much in different cabinets, the european union completely rejects it, it means that it can be a certain trade offer from the kremlin. orbán has not announced publicly what exactly his plan contains, but it is possible. to assume that it will be a kind of ceasefire in which ukraine will definitely have to give up some territory, maybe i don't know, it could be something like that to the so-called istanbul proposal in march 22, according to which ukraine agrees to remain neutral,

never to join nato, russian troops will have to withdraw their units from the territory they have occupied since the full-scale invasion, and the future status of crimea and donbas will be determined in the future. this was a preliminary proposal, i don't know what is included in orbán's proposal, but it doesn't really matter, i don't want to sound impolite, but i will say that viktor orbán is nobody in this matter, he is just a leader a small central european country, he has no authority, charles michel, the president of the european council, came out and said the same thing, he said that orban has no authority, the eu legal department said that orban is violating eu policies. rules of the european union and eu legislation, so he has no authority to negotiate on behalf of anyone, and as charles michel also said, nothing can be decided about ukraine without ukraine, so orbán's plan is irrelevant, it will become relevant only in in the event that trump is elected, who will accept

it and try to impose it on ukraine, but i don't think that the european allies of the us will agree to this, and how is this difference of opinion between, say ... donald trump's washington on the one hand, and brussels, paris and rome, for example, and then london on the other hand, will be drawn. i can't predict right now, but i personally think that orbán's plan means nothing if trump doesn't support it, and orbán just makes it clear that he is not a friend of the transatlantic family. yes, i'm with you i agree, but on the other hand, everyone is aware that orban will not win, orban, as orban, he did not win. plays some important role, so here i completely agree with you, but he is an emissary, he brought what was agreed in moscow and maybe in beijing, i don’t even fully understand, yes, because the so-called istanbul agreements or negotiations, or rather , well , they were based on the fact that russia is withdrawing

its troops from our newly occupied ukrainian territories, yes, the issue of crimea is being pushed aside somewhere, well, and accordingly , the complete disarmament of ukraine, but putin now... goes back to the so-called istanbul talks, but completely changes them, actually changes them and brings them to an absolutely absurd kind of appearance, which is that they are going to annex territories that they have not even taken, that is , putin's current talks about new istanbul, so they are completely irrelevant to what was said then and so on. we understand that putin is playing his game, and the current situation for him is just a new platform on which he wants to land, after, if possible, donald trump would become the president, that is, this is exactly how i see the development of the current situation. i completely agree with you, if we recall march 2022 and the istanbul

statement, then the main representative from ukraine at the negotiations said that he was ready to accept a compromise on the spot, but his russian colleague had to return to moscow to get approval, which he never received received, so now putin, as usual, lies and pretends that russia was ready to accept the previous wording. now, as you just said, mr. borkovsky, putin is not even talking... about the original istanbul formulation, but about his method of action. in an interview with tucker carson, putin said something incredibly outrageous, especially for an american with polish roots like me. he said that poland attacked russia or the soviet union in september 1939, again completely twisting history, as in the case of katyn. so he does it again. putin acts as if ukraine had to agree to the annexation of these countries, which russia did not even occupy, and is trying to pretend peacefully, hoping to create the necessary

momentum with the help of orban's emissary, and yet i think he will not succeed, the truth is on the side of ukraine. one more thing about orbán: for many years, his foreign policy was based on special relations, including economic and currency, both with moscow and beijing. a former senior hungarian official responsible for the policy said. to me that they didn't want to talk about it publicly, but that's what they did with their hands, to a large extent, it's just money flowing to orbán, rather than principled politics. dear mr. ambassador bryza, what are the prospects for holding the so-called second peace summit? we understand that the kremlin says one thing publicly, behind the scenes they send other signals. yes, there is a feeling that one or another indirect negotiations between the main capitals of the world are ongoing. yes, i didn't want it to be at the expense of ukraine, but in any case , there were prospects for

a successful second peace summit, something similar to what happened in switzerland, but with a very specific fixation of certain parameters. i do not i think that it has prospects for everyone, if success means an agreement that ukraine will accept. i remember being very worried during trump's first presidency, when it was obvious that he was trying to... reach a deal with putin behind ukraine's back, which was some kind of compromise, maybe like the istanbul declaration, in exchange for some cooperation from putin in syria. there is always the danger that if trump is elected, he will try to make such a deal with putin without consulting ukraine, but this will certainly not happen at the peace summit. this is an agreement that does not correspond to the interests of ukraine. and it is obvious to me that as an organization the european union is the dominant force. its member states do not want ukraine to be forced to end the war as a result of the peace summit, if it is not yet

ready for this, there will be some pressure in this direction if there is another such peace agreement from some participants, but i do not think that the european union and nato support forcing ukraine to end the war without liberating its territories on its own terms. dear mr. ambassador bryza, how about ukraine, our president, our ukrainians? authorities to do the right thing in the current situation, right? well, because we understand that donald trump is not donald trump per se, and it's not even republicans, we understand that there are very different approaches in the republican party of the united states, right? donald trump is boris johnson, yes, who recently met with him, and elon musk, and in general, he represents a certain economic and global environment, so we understand that he will voice certain things, perhaps himself... himself , maybe it will be some kind of collective decision, a collective manifestation of a certain political will.

i really would not like donald trump to say: listen, well, you are there in ukraine, i will give you a month, two or three there, agree on something with the russians, otherwise i will not give you help, so we understand that not to give aid to ukraine is to stab us in the back, that is, the situation is unpleasant, but given the way trump can conduct negotiations, this may happen. and that is why it is necessary to act as soon as possible. first, boris johnson doesn't really have any influence because donald trump has all the power. even elon musk may be the richest man in the world. and has the most followers on twitter or x of anyone else, but he doesn't have any real political power, so now he's decided to support donald trump's course. trump is the one who will make the decisions in the united states government and he can actually do exactly what you mention. in my opinion, ukraine can continue to do what it is doing, but

perhaps it should be more clearly stated that we are a sovereign and democratic country. elected leadership, therefore, dear mr. trump, if the united states, god forbid, were attacked by mexico, canada, or anyone else, you would insist on the right to fight as long as necessary to restore your territorial integrity. at some point , the ukrainian leadership will need to make a clear statement about this. at the same time, of course, ukraine must win on the battlefield. yes, we, the usa and europe must provide the promised weapons systems, but ukraine. certainly more soldiers are needed on the battlefield, which is a very difficult domestic political issue in ukraine. so, i would advise ukraine, a- speak clearly and clearly, and b) win on the battlefield and continue to pressure the us and europe. to put pressure on europe in particular because trump and owens are actually right that europe has for too long not spent enough

on its own defense and has relied on the united states to carry a burden that is... essentially a huge tax imposed on the united states states as their allies. president zelensky would be wise to find a way to strengthen this argument. the us has done a lot for us, but europe, maybe trump is right, you do you need to do more too? if president zelensky had made such an argument, trump might have been more sympathetic to him in the event of his re-election. well, i recently spoke with the former marshal of the polish senate, bohdan borusewicz, yes. well, when i said that the european union, well, it was appropriate that they give more money, yes, because there is a situation that could become critical after the arrival of trump and after he will conduct his negotiations, well, to which borusevich said yes, well we understand that the united states is everything one thing is richer, and their budgets are bigger, that is, this is a kind of story, yes, and donald trump, i do not think that he will come up with

some new scheme, newer than what i will announce now, that is, he will tell our official ambassador to kyiv . you have to do this and that, or i won't give it to you. to the russians, he will say: listen, you have to negotiate, otherwise we will give ukraine additional weapons, lethal ones, and maybe allow us to strike deep into russian territory, not 100 km, 500 or 1000 km, so this will generally raise the stakes, but knowing , for example, putin, he simply does not i know, he will hold another ballistic or tactical or non-tactical nuclear weapons training, after that we will... stand on the threshold of the caribbean crisis, after that everything will go down, the level of stakes and the level of aggression, but i fear that all this will happen at our expense , i just don't see that putin is ready to concede anything, maybe i 'm wrong. returning to the comment of the ex-speaker of the polish senate, it should be noted that it does not completely cover the whole

picture. the economy of the united states is not as large as that of the european union. the european union has a sweatier... economy, the problem is that member states have decided not to have as large defense budgets as the united states. this is exactly what trump is talking about. you have money, you just choose not to spend it on defense because you rely on us and our own welfare to cover your defense needs. so, european union, you need to use more money to take care of your own defense needs. that's the whole argument. if a polish politician is not for... believes in it, it means that he is not completely pays attention to the political realities that will come after the election of trump. how would putin react to such a possible deal? i agree that most likely this would be trump's approach, although we don't know for sure. we can analyze what is happening now and what happened yesterday, but predicting the future is very difficult. and

yet, let's assume that this scenario were exactly that. yes, i agree that putin will. to threaten nuclear weapons more, but i worry less and less that these threats will work. as my former colleague wrote to the atlantic council peter dickinson in a recent article for the atlantic council. look at how putin behaves in the black sea. ukraine, in fact, having no fleet, destroyed or disabled a third of the black sea fleet and forced russia to withdraw so much of it from crimea back to russia that now naval experts in... britain say that the black sea fleet is essentially no longer capable of action putin threatened nuclear retaliation if force was used and the attacks in crimea took place, but in the end he did what he does. everyone is a jerk gave up and retreated. i don't think there's any chance he'll ever use tactical nukes. he will never use a serious nuclear weapon, but if he used a tactical

nuclear weapon, it would change everything dramatically. let's recall how bill burns, director of the cia, went to warn him about a year and a half ago that if russia uses tactical nuclear weapons, the united states will not stand aside. of course, there will be some nato member countries. which will intervene and destroy the russian armed forces occupying ukraine, but no one wants to see this scenario and i don't think we will ever get to it, well, we just see how hysterically putin is in a hurry, that is, if putin is in such a hurry, we can see it based on the situation on the front line, he is now does not spare people and constantly drives them to attacks in the donetsk direction, this means that putin wants to meet his certain deadline, both literally and figuratively. i think that the presidential elections in the usa are definitely an important milestone or marker for putin. i don't know if they are for him

constitute a certain deadline, but he very much hopes that everything we just talked about will happen if donald trump is elected president, and then, from his point of view, the support for ukraine will be much less, and this will give russia a better chance to avoid defeat, but there are also internal indefinite terms. nobody knows what 's really going on, putin probably doesn't, but right now, as vice presidential candidate jaydy vance pointed out in an article he wrote last february, russia is producing more artillery shells and basic weapons, than the united states and the eu combined. i mean, it's about three or four times that, so the us and the eu have allowed their defense industries to reduce capacity by investing in non-military defense, but we're seeing that... the situation is starting to change, first the german companies are saying, oh yeah , we have to produce military products, weapons and artillery shells, whereas in the past it was always a

kind of political taboo for german companies, that is, they stayed away from the military context, because of germany's nazi past, so gradually american and european factories are starting to produce more and more weapons, it will take some time, but russia is able to produce so much ammunition and weapons because... putin has directed 6% of russia's entire gross domestic product to the defense sector. he has reorganized the russian economy so that it is completely military-oriented , and this can last for a very long time. how long, who knows, but the russian people also suffer from the fact that they have much less money for health care, much less money for elderly care, much less money for education, and even a dictator like putin must... not forget the possibility of a revolution. there were many revolutions in russia. no, russia is not on the verge of a revolution, but he knows that he cannot continue the intensive militarization

of the russian economy. every day that the entire russian economy is focused on the military is another day that moves russia away from the opportunity to modernize its economy and acquire the technologies it needs to compete on the world stage, after this terrible invasion will end. to ukraine, i don't know when this deadline will be in putin's head, or when this deadline will come in russian society, i don't know, but it definitely exists somewhere there. god bless ukraine, god bless america. thank you very much, dear mr. ambassador bryza, for this brilliant conversation and for this extremely important analysis on the air of the tv channel. and i want to remind our tv viewers that matthew bryza, ex-adviser of the secretary of state of the united states, former director of affairs, was currently working for you europe t'. eurasia in the us national security council. glory to ukraine. glory to heroes. there are discounts

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now, a famous

political scientist who is in washington will work on the air of the tv channel. andriy piondkovskyi. glory to ukraine, andriy andriyovych, glad to see you. glory. well, an assassination attempt on trump is much more serious than just some prank by the killer or the madman. so we understand that this generally raises the problem of the internal reorganization of america to an unprecedented level and trump's victory is already becoming a reality, although the current incumbent, joseph biden, is holding his own. but in the united states, another rather significant event took place. symbolic casting. trump already nominated jaydy vance as potential vice president, right? and this figure, it can testify to certain parallel lines voiced by the same viktor orban, that is, everything is extremely serious, and we see how actively putin is in a hurry. yes, you are right, this is a very important political event, a very important election indicator.