some agreement, some agreement, then putin will take it as his victory, as a sign, he will go somewhere else, i don't know, to kazakhstan or to estonia, but he will definitely go somewhere else, thank you, mr. sergey, sergey rakhmanin , the people's deputy of ukraine was on our air, i will continue after a short break. there are discounts that represent the only discounts on norwend express forte 10% in pharmacies. plantain can become an obstacle for you. walk up the stairs, not with my knees. for pain in the knees, try dolgit cream. long-acting cream relieves pain and reduces swelling and improves joint mobility. you can go on foot with the long-lasting cream. dolgit is the only yellow cream for joint pain. there are discounts that represent the only discounts on entroje. 15% at

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vasyl winter's big broadcast, two hours of air time, two hours of your time, two hours, to... learn about the war and how the world lives for two

hours, to keep up with economic news and sports news, two hours in the company of favorite presenters, presenters who have become familiar to many. as well as distinguished guests of the studio, events of the day in two hours, vasyl zima's big broadcast, a project for smart and caring people. espresso in the evening. we continue the politclub program on the espresso tv channel. vitaly portnikov is with you, and we will talk with alexander metaly, a historian, political scientist, professor at rudger university in the united states, about the turbulent events that we are now watching in the united states. congratulations, sir. i congratulate you and thank you for the invitation, thank you for being with us on this broadcast, and how do you assess the course of this election campaign now? well, you see, two weeks ago it seemed that everything was already decided, trump would win, vance would be the vice president,

biden would definitely lose, and the democrats had no chance, and in general the democratic camp was in such despair, because somehow it seemed that ... are going straight to death, ever since biden announced that he was effectively resigning and that in place, and kamela harris has now taken his place, then the situation, at least psychologically of betrayal, has changed quite significantly, since once everyone believed, the democrats believed, that they would definitely lose, now at least there is hope, a possibility, well, what a great one, which is another question, but at least... there is a possibility that something will be positive, so that the situation has changed, at the same time there is a kind of, how to say, this oppression on the part of the republicans, on the one hand, they have become much more

aggressive in their critics of kamel harris, but at the same time one feels that this is something unknown, unknown for them, because after all, don't forget, they had been preparing for months for an election campaign about... biden, there were slogans ready, sleeping joe, incompetent joe, here suddenly a young woman who represents normal, well, everything has to change suddenly, so they, they are desperate, but somehow they feel that they are looking for the right approach to it, so the situation has changed, how will it end, of course, this is the main question, i don't know, at least you can say that now the democrats have some a chance, perhaps even a good one, to catch the white smoke in their hands. as far as we can say that we understand the real positions of both candidates regarding ukraine, that is

, donald trump with his controversial comments, and kamale kamale garis, who never spoke about it in general. yes, of course with her, with one. on the one hand, she did not express herself in particular, on the other hand, she still went to the munich conference, well, after all, she is the vice president, so in principle it can be assumed that she at least to a certain extent supports biden's policy, this is both good and bad for ukraine, because as you know, he was constantly criticized for the fact that he gave weapons, ammunition, etc. too late, too little. but it can be assumed that she will probably remain in the same positions, at least for a while, and maybe even become more radical, to assert herself somehow, with trump it is more difficult, because, as you mentioned, no one knows for sure , what he thinks, on

the one hand, he, like this vance, speaks very negatively about ukraine, relatively positively about putin, about russia and is created, the impression is created that he is ready to sell ukraine for nothing, on the other hand, on the same day, the next day , an article will appear, some speech will appear, some analysis of his supporters will appear, in which he appears as a great defender of ukraine. as you know, boris johnson met with him a week or two ago and came to the conclusion that trump will protect ukraine, a column appeared a few days ago. it was written by his former secretary of state, mike pompeo, who allegedly presented his program, which is completely a normal one, in which he supposedly fully supports ukraine and ukrainian integrity, so where exactly he stands, what he wants, what he

believes in, i think that trump himself does not know this, but here is the question, all these texts by johnson, pompeo is from trump. or for trump, here it is important, maybe there is a struggle for what should be in trump's head, well, rather for trump, i don't think he will stand up, i, well, it's just mine... personally, this is the impression, this is the opinion, i do not claim any special knowledge here, but taking into account its nature, taking under pay attention to how he generally treated politics over the last eight years, especially during the four years when he was president, he, he does not have any stable line, he is once this way, once here, once there, once here, and , and i assume that he himself does not know exactly how he should feel about the question of... the question of ukraine, one thing that i personally assume is that i, i, i

think that i am right here, well, but again that my impression is, one thing we know about trump is that he is a narcissist, he is a man who is convinced of his own genius, and with on the other hand, we know that putin is the same narcissist, that he is also convinced that he is a god-given genius, and here is an interesting clash between two geniuses: and i suppose that in such an essence trump will not want to give up, it will of course be for ukraine, well, in principle, it should be in ukraine's favor that he will not be ready to simply submit completely to, well, putin, another genius and thus give this, well, this title of genius to putin himself. but again that's my guess whether it's true or false i don't know nobody knows i

i assume that trump himself does not know this, but for trump, as far as we understand, the main danger is china, and at the same time he hopes to negotiate with russia, which is building more and more friendly relations with this same china, how does it even work, well there is also a difficult question here, on the one hand, yes, it is true, on the other hand, as you yourself mentioned from... there is, well, an alliance or a semi-alliance between china and russia, russia is of course involved in the war in ukraine, and just focus your attention on china and pretend that there is no connection between china and russia and between china through the mediation of russia and with ukraine, well, this is just nonsense, even trump and vance probably understand it, so this is the policy where he... would only focus his attention on china, because it is the biggest, single,

most important threat to america , it simply won't work, because sooner or later, washington, the white house, trump, that means, would come to understand that it is not only about china, but also about russia, so that it is impossible to separate them, as it was once possible , now they are so connected that mentioning china, you mention simultaneous russia and on... tell me, in principle, if we talk about how the election campaign will develop in the future, do you see that ukraine will be the topic of this election campaign, or is it still such, i would say , an exclusively foreign policy topic for the usa today, which is not in the center of attention of candidates for the post of president, well, of course, joseph biden can deal with ukraine there, simply because he is not engaged in an election campaign, but trump and garis are. but so interested in ukraine now and in the debates about it. well,

so, taking into account, let's say, eight, four, eight, 12 years ago, ukraine was not mentioned at all in the debates, was not mentioned at all in the camera, well, in general, to a strong zero, then now it will still remain a question, whether it will be the main question, of course not, because the american election, it seems, is everyone's election. critical countries are mainly resolved by domestic issues, we are talking about the economy, inflation, unemployment, a sense of some dignity, etc., and to one degree or another the issue of china, the issue russia, the issue of ukraine, the issue of europe, it will influence to one degree or another, but in a very mediocre way, the discussions, mainly it is about whether you want trump, or you want garis, or you want... a conservative, or you want a liberal , whether you want a person who seems to support family values ​​or not, here

is the main thing, here are the main issues, and ukraine will of course be mentioned, but again, in a mediocre way, in certain contexts, when it comes, when it will be discussed about such or other , about the role of america in the world, well, in this context, because it is trump after all. it is important, because he constantly talks about the fact that america should again be in the first place, should be grandiose again, and in this way ukraine either hinders or helps. this desire, so that it will remain a topic, but not the main and not the most important one, but the middle east, it is an internal political topic for democrats and republicans, it divides them? yes, well , this is a completely different issue, you see, because on the one hand, as you know, america fully

supports israel, but at the same time, whether to a different extent, is critical of israel's behavior. in the gas sector, biden somehow tried to find some kind of balance between those two issues, harris - the same, trump - the same, where exactly to find this middle ground, i personally do not know, but at the same time the question is important, because everything is happening these, well , took place, and i am sure that various demonstrations, manifestations, protests, etc. in october and november, and thus this issue becomes a household issue, because he went outside and there are two, two, two students standing there, one, one handing out sticks against israel, the other against the palestinians, and

so , you have to be yourself, you have to...how to take a position, there is no such position regarding ukraine, because in principle everyone agrees that ukraine is important, there are people who are not particularly convinced that it is, but no one is hostile to ukraine, against israel and palestine, there is either love or hatred parties on both sides, and that is why it will then take on a much different importance in various discussions, well, that is, we can... say that there is a positive attitude towards ukraine, but it is not in the first place in the interests of american society, can you say that? now? absolutely, absolutely, i think you're right, yes. to what extent can ukraine revive, let's say, this interest in itself, what should be done, in your opinion? well, of course, the best thing would be

if there were some breakthroughs on the battlefield, if ukraine could liberate... well, let's say part of the kherson region or the entire kherson region or the crimean peninsula, well , something like that, of course, this would immediately draw all attention to ukraine and change the tone of the discussion, because as you know, until now, or especially recently, there is constant talk about , that there is a kind of impasse, neither one nor the other side is making progress, so it is, so... so it will be, and this is how it all needs to be ended as soon as possible, because there is simply no other way out, if ukraine could break through, push out, let's say, russian troops from crimea peninsula, but let's say, well, it would certainly have a great impact on the discussions, and then the situation is no longer a deadlock, it turns into

a situation in which ukraine can win and not somewhere far away. in the future, but now at this moment, maybe even before the american elections, or now after, it would certainly change the tone of the discussion very much, nevertheless, the attitude of kyiv, it should be, so to speak, balanced, because on the one hand it seems trump will win, but on the other hand , i'm not sure that will be the case, so that ukraine should not interfere, should not interfere in... the internal affairs of america, well, this is the truth of itself, but at the same time maintain warm and, if possible, even productive relations with one camp and with another camp. thank you, mr. oleksandr, oleksandr motil, a historian, political scientist, professor at agers university in the united states, was in touch with us, as you heard, he actually confirmed what serhii rakhmanin, the people's

deputy of ukraine, told us in the first part of our program. what a victory attract attention and the static front line, of course, creates a completely different attitude to war, unfortunately. oleksandr shulga, doctor of sociological sciences, head of the institute of conflict studies and analysis of russia, will be in touch with us, and we will talk with him about what, in his opinion , is happening in the russian sidelines now, if anything is happening there at all. congratulations, congratulations, mr. oleksandr, well, if you are talking now the question is not about society but about... elites, i understand, well yes, let's start with the elites, maybe it will be possible to move on to society, so to speak, well, in fact, they greatly underestimate him, just the elite, who are called... the russian opposition, yes, they really do not want and do not like to talk about the results of sociological research in russia, calling it what well

, it is impossible to conduct research, people are afraid and so on and so forth, there is justice in their words, but still, it seems to me, because of their political interests, some involvement or great involvement, what they see in our research, in research so-called independent russians sociologists, they don't really like what they see, and accordingly they don't want to be based on it and accordingly they don't want to repeat it, if this is part of the russian elite, and as for the kremlin part of russia, well, those who make decisions, let's put it this way, it is important, well, we are with you now, we are now seeing such a large-scale process, on the one hand, the transit of power, when the principle is not just promised to a generation, this transit is already being implemented, well, we can

give many examples , starting with patryshev jr., from kovalchuk jr. and putin's direct relatives, and on the other hand, we see with you every day, in fact every day, a mass purge among the security forces, among businessmen, in fact... but formal loyalty is now replaced by, well, such loyalty of the totalitarian type, if you clap your hands less than your neighbor, so maybe you are not quite reliable, maybe you are ready for some separate negotiations, that is why we are now observing on such a large scale, of course there are some such interesting spikes, how are these between. planned showdowns, someone specific was detained, for example, the same ivanov or kibovsky, this is the shiigu clan of the ato, the sobyanin clan, but in general, this is only the background,

the main process, the very soft transition of power and the clearing of the field from any, even formal, possible potential disloyalty, and as you see the transition of power, do you think that putin is at all ready to transfer power to someone during? your physical life? no, he doesn't, it just doesn't fit into the transit of power. putin is a solipsist. if i do not exist, then russia does not exists, if russia does not exist, the world does not exist. why do we have such a world without russia, and as we know, russia is putin. just this soft transition of power is a guarantee of his preservation in power, it is a guarantee of his loyalty. his inner circle of this elite, because it is guaranteed, you will be loyal to me, and then after my death, your children will

inherit this country, but if you are disloyal, first you will be at least moved, like the number two man and the man number three, you'll gut the shayga, well, you're the best you will simply die from a detached thrombus, so precisely in this... in this is the trick that not a single, well, one candidate, to whom i will hand over power, will be named, then putin turns into a muck, this is such a stretched soft transit power, which will last no, it is not determined for a long time, and it will exactly coincide with putin's physical existence, he does not need a clear, well, heir, we remember, even a hint of what might happen with... a change of power, we remember, medvedev and ivanov, it led to some misunderstandings and equivocations, so putin will not to repeat this mistake, well, this is an interesting

moment, so in fact we are hostages of his efforts to transfer power as much as to retain it, to what extent is war a tool to retain power in such a situation? well, the fact that his internal summons has been completely replaced, replaced by an external one, is not a secret, it is a truism. and uh, we can see it from virtually all the troubles that are happening in the russian federation, uh, another dam that was simply washed away by a downpour, fires that are equal to several european countries in terms of their territory, and so on, and so on, i think you and i will see it just not even in months, maybe in weeks, some new troubles, it's completely replaced, although, ah... this subpoena is now, they're trying to make her normal the new normal, they are trying to make it, to instrumentalize it not only

at the level that... there is no time for anything else, but also to get some kind of, well , like a new loyal elite of the lower level, that's exactly what we get these primers from with participants in the war against ukraine, and even they they receive some municipal positions, these are trial layers, it seems to me that they are doing it for pro forma, they do not yet believe that the renewal of the elite can really be done, well... there is no way out, that is, they are really on some kind of at this level, i mean at the highest level, they do not see an exit from the war without such serious upheavals, although our research, for example, when we conducted immediately after the liberation of kherson in russia and asked if it was correct that the russians, that russian troops left kherson , 74% of russians

answered that yes, everything is correct with... soldiers, this is the right decision, so it seems to me that at least a departure to the status quo of february 22nd will definitely not be, well, you know, a point of no return and putin will be overthrown, i don’t know, ultrapatriots, z-patriots, but one of the most ardent kazriots is sitting in a pre-trial detention center, and the other is lying in a grave, so... in fact, it seems to me that they are hostages of their fears, and why do we always have the idea of ​​this line on february 24, 22 , which in the head of the russians, it seems to me, has been gone for a long time, they have the donetsk-luhansk people's republic there, which they annexed, which they are trying, or they will be able to seize it, or they will not be able to, and we live all the time in captivity of this strange line, well, the ldnr, so-called donetsk people's republic, they have in their

discourse that... in the 13th year, kherson, zaporizhzhia region, they call them, but now they are trying, they are trying new regions, novorossia, now they are only trying to establish it in the discourse, while it comes out very badly, but we remember that in the 14th year it started in the same way , it was also funny, strange, sinful, but constant repetition, constant, what is the main... technique of propaganda, well, we already talked about it a lot, what, what else to talk about here, well, you are talking about these borders again, well, crimea is already a closed issue, they also switched to seizing the then part of donetsk luhansk , in the same way, now they are trying with all their might to talk about new regions, novorossia, and in fact in this way to legitimize in the eyes of russians not so much the fact that they can leave there,

but the fact that they can get something else... he asked how much i see, that's the idea? well, actually, it's a very interesting idea here because the propaganda evolved and the russians, no, no, they couldn't, you know, keep up with it, when we asked on the first anniversary of the start of the full-scale war, which, do you know the goals, the overwhelming majority said yes, and when we asked the question, none of the options, except for the demilitarization, de-nazification of ukraine, are not on... the same, in fact, the same picture both in and on the second anniversary in february in february in january february of this year we also conducted research on the second the anniversary of the full-scale invasion, there is also no russians don't have a complete picture, why is this happening, that is, they are repeating what

... propaganda says, and accordingly, here we return to your previous question and the prosthesis that putin can actually afford to leave the captured territories, because propaganda has evolved so often, very often our interviewees, when i listened to the answers of the russians, they, they put questions to the interior in turn, that is, you know, you understand the goals of the svo, well, we, since we are for the russians... or we call it in order not to arouse suspicion, the russians changed the question in their turn: do you understand? well, tell me what the goals are, and it actually gives a huge, huge maneuver, room for maneuver to russia, to putin, to the russian elite in general. and how do you conduct such sociological surveys in russia in general, how can they be conducted realistically? just like russian...