in the autumn of the 22nd year, it will be much easier to convince the world that ukraine can win, both inside the country and abroad, because now this disbelief that ukraine can win has actually returned to the state of february, march 22nd year, when almost no one believed in it, that is, in fact, it is not fatigue from war, fatigue from the static nature of war, you can say that, you can also like that, but also fatigue... from war, too, because from the static nature of war - it is, well let's put it this way, victory or defeat, it 's a detonator in military parlance, serving, because in fact, when the war becomes routine, it becomes routine in the cities, it becomes routine in the columns of newspapers, it is very difficult to arouse one's emotions, empathy is dulled, and this also applies to ukrainian citizens, unfortunately, but this. ..

a fact, and this would happen in any other country under similar circumstances, well, it is clear that if you are sitting thousands of kilometers from here, it is very difficult for you to move something, especially after everything that could move you as if it already was. but the supply the latest western weapons, can it change the situation in the direction of some advantages of the ukrainian army? maybe, but about the latest western weapons, if we are really talking about the latest on... we are not talking about any extremely new samples, nor about their sufficient number, in fact, in this sense, a certain control of escalation is taking place, in part it is also determined by objective the reasons for, let's say, the insufficient amount of the means that ukraine needs in warehouses even in the united states, but often it is caused by subjective factors, subjective factors, because... for some reason

there are still these conditional red lines drawn in the cities, beyond which it is impossible to cross, there is always the risk of this specter of the third world war, a nuclear catastrophe, which putin is playing with, and he has a whole a set of factors with the help of which he is trying to control this escalation, including that this blackmail was understood, so about some extremely new ones, why go far? if we're not allowed to hit the ranged weapons where we need to go, and that's really not just about territory russia, and excuse me, sometimes also on the territory of occupied ukraine, we have to agree on almost every goal with those who provided us with weapons, well, it is very difficult to really wage war in such conditions, this is not the only reason why this war slows down, with which , this is not the only problem we face, but it is also about... but

the question arises under what conditions it can be changed, but it has already been said several times, you can beat, you can't beat, you can beat, you can't beat , we don't even have exact information, it is possible or not, well, let's fantasize, if in, well, let's call a spade a spade if the united states is headed by a man more decisive than the current president of the united states. who will determine for himself the farthest red line, and it does not matter if he is a democrat or a republican, if he decides and allows himself a certain risk, a certain leadership, as it is now fashionable to say, then the situation can change significantly, and this applies not only to the permission, let's say there to use long-range weapons, this applies to both character and er... let's say, timing

providing military aid and in general there must be a politician who will treat this war as a war he is fighting, even if he is not directly involved in it, because no matter what anyone says, for all western leaders, with rare exceptions, this war is infinitely far away, and they do not consider themselves to be participants in this process. do not really believe that there is a serious threat, let's say, a collision, an objective threat of a collision between nato and russia there, and that is why they are so afraid of this unplanned occasion there, which could lead to this to start a war, they do not believe that russia is a threat, this applies even to most of them who publicly say that russia is a threat there, they say this, but they do not fully believe it, but then why should they..

arm themselves, create new conditions for the military service of their citizens, which is not all. irrational fear appeared so far, irrational fear, why did it appear, because in... what was nato, what was, shall we say, the western military world for many years? it was like that bureaucracy, it was a system that was being disarmed, it was a system that was, let's say, covered with moss, and they, in this peace-loving mood, relied on the analysis that was given to them by intelligence, analytical centers, and when it suddenly turned out that these... intelligence and these analytical centers can be wrong, so far just such an irrational fear has appeared, this fear has not yet grown into the awareness that there is a real threat, only the fear of this threat has appeared, and being guided by this fear, they looked at their arsenals,

storage bases, warehouses found out that there are empty, or there are rust and rats, and they began to arm themselves little by little out of fear, but this is not yet known. of a real threat, if it were otherwise, the production of shells, gunpowder and military equipment would not take place at such a pace as it is now, now it is at the level of a commercial need, now it is not a state need to immediately arm ourselves. the united states has three times less artillery than russia, is there a problem for the united states in view of their really powerful the defense-industrial complex will nullify this difference or even create it. advantage, no, why don't they do it, because so far they don't see such a threat for themselves, let alone say something about the germans or the french, and russia is a real threat to nato, given what it has achieved in general ukraine in these 2.5 years, well, it is difficult to judge,

well, let's try to assess, russia is a threat for one simple reason: russia is a large country with a large resource with, let's say , an insane ruler. can russia conquer all of western europe? i have huge doubt could it start a war in europe? i have almost no doubts here. they are in brussels, in paris, in, well, i don't know how in london, in berlin and in, for example, in athens for sure, or in rome, but if putin goes further, if he is afraid of threats. the threat of a nuclear conflict, despite the losses, theoretically he can afford it, he is actually all this time he is like a child, he evaluates the limit of what is allowed, he goes there, well, like water, it goes where, where it can flow, well and that is, it means that in

in principle, the defeat in ukraine is precisely there, it guarantees that the war will not continue further, in my opinion, absolutely not, it is in fact. somewhat reminiscent of the story with mussolini hitler, for some reason everyone used to appeal to munich from the infamous year 38, but in fact it still started much earlier, it began when the league of nations and the so-called victorious countries swallowed abyssinia, then when they swallowed the deployment of troops in the demilitarized rhenish zone, how they turned a blind eye to the actual intervention and... germany in the military conflict in spain, well and the anschluss of austria, the anschluss of austria was already further, yes, well, and then there were the sudetenland, and each time they said, well, this is exactly the point after which europe will not be afraid of another great world war, i don't remember, who was then prime minister in the mid-30s,

baldwin, surrendered to chamberlain, and when they came to him with a demand to increase defense spending, he then said to drink an aspirin for... this even remained in the minutes of the british government in the transcripts, so they always said that as the military, they always prepare for past wars, so do politicians, and diplomats, they rely on past peace agreements, when it seems to everyone that you can always find some historical analogue, in fact there are historical analogues that directly deny this, i think that it is just the opposite, if due to... more precisely , due to pressure from the west, ukraine is forced will sign some kind of agreement, some agreement, then putin will take it as his victory, as a sign, he will go somewhere else, i don't know, to kazakhstan or to estonia, but

he will definitely go somewhere else. thank you, mr. sergey. serhii rakhmanin, people's deputy of ukraine, we had it on the air, we will continue after a short break. there are discounts, the only 15% discount on sudokrem in plantain pharmacies will save you money. pain can become an obstacle. with moves, not with my knees. for pain in the knees, try dolgit cream. long-acting cream relieves pain, reduces swelling and improves joint mobility. with dolgit cream, you can even walk. dolgit is the only yellow cream for joint pain. there are discounts that represent the only discounts on eurofast softcaps. 10% in pharmacies, plantain, memory and savings. there are discounts , the only discounts on exoderl are 15% in in pharmacies plantain to you and saver. national tv on megogo is a lot of channels, well, a lot of channels, as well as movies,

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format, even more analytics, even more important topics, even more top guests, foreign experts, inclusion from abroad, about ukraine, the world, the front, society, and also feedback, you you can express your opinion on a bad day by phone survey, turn on and turn on, verdict with serhii rudenko, from tuesday to friday from 20 to 22. a new week on espresso, a weekly summary information and analytical program, a clear understanding of the key events of the past week, analysis of the causes and consequences of these events from experts, forecasts of the development of the situation for the current week, the opportunity to ask your own questions and join the discussion. spend the final monday evening with us and confidently step into the new week. new week project. with christina yatskiv and andrii smoly, every monday at 20:00 at espresso.

we continue the politclub program on the espresso tv channel, vitaly portnikov is with you, and we will talk with the historian, political scientist, professor of rudger university in the united states, oleksandr metalyn, about the turbulent events that we are currently observing in the united states. congratulations, mr. oleksandr. congratulations and thank you for the invitation. thank you for being with us on this broadcast, but how do you assess the progress of this election campaign now? well, you see, two weeks ago, it seemed that everything it has already been decided: trump will win, vance will be vice president, biden will definitely lose, and the democrats had no chance. and in general , the democratic camp was in such despair for some reason. it seemed that they were going straight to death, from the time that biden

announced that he was actually resigning, and that on the spot, and now kamela harris took his place, the situation, at least psychologically , has changed quite a lot, since once everyone believed, the democrats believed that they would definitely lose, now at least there is hope, a possibility, well, how great, what this... and at least there is a possibility that something will be positive, so that the situation has changed, at the same time there is a kind of, how to say it, uh, this oppression on the part of the republicans, on the one hand they have become much more aggressive in their criticism of kamel harris, at the same time you feel that this is something unknown, unknown to them, because after all, do not forget, they have been preparing for an election campaign against biden for months, there were slogans ready, sleeping joe, incompetent joe, here suddenly a young

woman who herself.. . represents normal, but everything has to change suddenly, so they, they are desperate, but somehow they feel that they are looking for the right approach to it, so the situation has changed, how will it end, of course, this is the main question, i don't know, but at least you can say , that now the democrats have some chance, perhaps not even a bad one, to keep the white smoke in their hands as much as possible... talk about the fact that we understand the real positions of both candidates regarding ukraine, namely donald trump with his controversial comments, and kamala , camels haris, who never spoke about it in general, but of course with her, on the one hand, she did not speak out, on the other hand, she still went to the munich

conference, uh, after all, she was the vice president, so in... in principle, it can be assumed that she supports biden's policy at least to a certain extent, this is both good and bad for ukraine, because, as you know, he was constantly criticized for the fact that he gave weapons, ammunition, etc. too late, too little, etc. but it can be assumed that it will plausibly remain on the same positions, at least for a certain time, and it is possible that it will even become more radical, in order to... somehow , it is more difficult to declare with trump, because, as you mentioned, no one knows exactly what he thinks, from one side, he, like this vance, speaks very negatively about ukraine, relatively positively about putin, about russia, and the impression is created that he is ready to sell ukraine for nothing, on the other hand, the same day, the next

an article will appear, a speech will appear, an analysis of his fugitive will appear. in to which he seems to act as a great defender of ukraine, as you know, a week or two ago boris johnson met with him and came to the conclusion that trump will protect ukraine, a column appeared in the wall street journal a few days ago, it was written by his former secretary of state mike pompey, who allegedly presented his program, which is completely normal. in which he allegedly fully supports ukraine and ukrainian integrity, so where exactly he stands, what he wants, what he believes in, i think that trump himself does not know this, but question, all these texts by johnson, pompeo - are they from trump or for trump, here it is important, maybe there is a struggle for what

should be in trump's head, well, rather for trump, i don't think he will stand up, i am in... well, this is just my personal impression, this is my opinion, i do not claim any special knowledge here, but taking into account his character, taking into account how he generally treated politics in the last eight years, especially in those four years , when he was the president, he, he does not have any stable line, he once like this, once here, once there, once here, and i assume that he himself does not know exactly how he should relate to... to the issue, to the issue of ukraine, one thing that i personally assume is that, i, i think i'm right here, well, but again that's my impression, there's one thing we know about trump is that he's a narcissist, he's a man who 's convinced of his own genius, and on the other hand, we know that putin is the same narcissist, that he is also convinced that he

is a god given genius, and here is an interesting clash between two... geniuses, and i suppose that in such an essence trump will not want to surrender, it will of course be to ukraine, well, in principle, it should be to the benefit of ukraine, that he will not be ready to simply surrender completely, well, to putin, to another genius and thus give this, well, this title of genius putin himself. but again, this is my guess, whether it's true or not, i don't know, nobody knows, i guess trump himself doesn't know, but for trump, as far as we understand, the main danger is... china, and at the same time he hopes to negotiate with russia, which is building more and more with this same china more friendly relationship, how does that even work?

well, there is also a difficult question here, on the one hand, yes, it is true, on the other hand, as you yourself mentioned, there is, well, whether it is an alliance or a semi-alliance between china and russia, russia is of course involved in the war in ukraine, and. .. often focus their attention on china and pretend that there is no connection between china and russia and between china through the mediation of russia and ukraine, well, this is just nonsense, even trump and vance probably understand this, so this is the policy where he would just focused his focus on china, because it is the biggest, single, most important threat to america, it just won't work, because sooner or later, yes. would come to the understanding that we are talking not only about china, but also about russia, so that they cannot be separated, as it was once

possible, now they are so connected that when you mention china, you remember russia at the same time, and vice versa. tell me, in principle, if we talk about how the election campaign will develop in the future, you see that ukraine will be the topic of... the election campaign, or is it still such, i would say an exclusively foreign policy topic for the usa today, which is not in the focus of attention of candidates for the post of president, well, of course, joseph biden can deal with ukraine there, simply because he is not engaged in an election campaign, but trump and halis, they are really so interested in ukraine now and in debate about her? well, that means, taking into account, say, eight, 4,8, 12 years ago, ukraine was not mentioned at all in the debates, was not mentioned at all in the camera, well, in general up to zero, so now it will still remain

some question, whether it will be the main issue, of course not, because american elections, as it seems, elections in all democratic countries, are decided mainly by domestic issues, we are talking about the economy, inflation, unemployment, a sense of... some dignity, etc. , and to one degree or another the question of china, the question of russia, the question of ukraine, the question of europe, it will influence to one degree or another, but in a very mediocre way , the discussions, mainly it is about whether you want trump or you want garich, do you want conservative or do you want liberal or do you want a person who seems to support family values ​​or not, here is the main thing, here are the main questions. and ukraine will of course be mentioned, but again, in a mediocre way, in certain contexts, when it comes, when it comes to talking about such and such, about the role of america in

the world, well, in such a context, since it is, after all, important for trump , because he constantly talks about the fact that america should again be in the first place, should be grand again, and thus ukraine either hinders or... contributes to this desire, so that it will remain a topic, but not the main one and not the most important, but the middle east, it is an internal political topic for democrats and republicans, does it divide them? yes, here, here is a completely different issue, you understand, because on the one hand, as you know, america fully supports israel, but at the same time, to one degree or another, is critical of the behavior. israel in the gas sector, biden somehow tried to find some kind of balance between the two issues, harris - the same, trump - the

same, where exactly to find this sweet middle, i personally do not know, but at the same time the question it is important, because all these are happening, well, they happened, and i am sure that there will be various demonstrations, manifestations, protests, and so on. not only on the campuses, in washington itself, in other cities, it will all start again in september, will gather momentum in october and in november, and thus this issue, it becomes a household issue, because i went outside and there are two two two some students, one of them distributes sticks against israel, the other against the palestinians, and in this way, at least somehow you have to... you have to take a position there, regarding ukraine there is no such thing, because in principle everyone agrees that ukraine is important, there are people who are not particularly

convinced that it is, but no one... is hostile to ukraine, as opposed to israel and palestine, there is either love or hatred from both sides, and it therefore takes on a much different importance in different discussions. well, that is, we can say that there is a positive attitude towards ukraine, but it is not at the forefront of the interests of american society, can we say that now? absolutely, absolutely, i think you're right, yes. as far as in general, ukraine can revive, let's say, this interest in itself, what should be done, in your opinion? well, of course, it would be best if there were some breakthroughs on the battlefield, if ukraine could liberate, well, let's say, a part of the kherson region or the entire kherson region, or the crimean peninsula, well, something like that, it would certainly turn everything around at once.

attention to ukraine and changed the concrete of the discussion, because as you know, until now, or especially lately, there is constant talk about what is here, well, a kind of impasse appeared, not about neither one nor the other side is advancing, that is the way it is, and that is how it will be, and this is how it must be ended as soon as possible, because there is simply no other way out, if ukraine could break through, push out, let's say, russian troops from the crimean peninsula, well , let's say well, of course, this would greatly affect the discussions, and then the situation is no longer a deadlock, it turns into a situation in which ukraine can win, and not somewhere in the distant future, but right now at this moment, maybe even before the american elections, or now after that, it would certainly change the tone debate a lot, though. attitude of kyiv,

it should be, so to speak, balanced, because on the one hand it seems that trump will win, but on the other hand, i am not sure that this will be absolutely the case, so ukraine should not interfere, should not interfere in america's internal affairs, well, this is true in itself, but at the same time to maintain warm, if possible even productive relations with one and the other. with another camp. thank you, mr. oleksandr. oleksandr motyl, historian, political scientist, professor at argher university in the united states. we were in touch, how you heard, he actually confirmed what serhiy rakhmanin, people's deputy of ukraine, told us in the first part of our program, that victories attract attention, but the static front line, of course, creates a completely different attitude to war, unfortunately. oleksandr shulga, doctor of sociological sciences,

head of the institute of conflict studies and analysis. we will be in touch with russia and we will talk with him about what he thinks is happening on the russian sidelines now, if anything is happening there at all. i congratulate you. congratulations, mr. oleksandr. well, if you you are now talking about the elites, not the society, i understand. well, let's start with the elites, maybe we can move on to society, so to speak. well, in fact, he is greatly underestimated, precisely by the elite. well , they call the russian opposition, yes, they really do not want and do not like to talk about the results of sociological research in russia, calling it that it is impossible to conduct research, people are afraid and so on and so forth, there is justice in their words, but still, it seems to me, because of my political interests, some involvement or high involvement,

what they see in our... studies, in the studies of the so-called independent russian sociologists, they don't really like what they see, and accordingly, they don't want to base themselves on it, and accordingly they don't want to repeat it, if this is a part of the russian elite, and as for the kremlin part of the russian, well, those who make decisions, let's say so, it is also important, we are now with you we are now seeing such a large-scale process, on the one hand on the one hand, the soft transit of power, when the principle is not just promised to a generation, this transit is already being implemented, well, we can cite many examples, starting with patryshev jr., kovalchuk jr. and putin's direct relatives, and on the other hand, we see with you everyone day, actually every day, a mass purge among security forces and

businessmen. loyalty in fact.