independent russian sociologists, they don't really like what they see, and accordingly they don't want to base themselves on it, and accordingly they don't want to repeat it, if this is part of the russian elite, and as for the kremlin part of the russian, well, those who makes the decision, let's put it this way, it is important, well, we are with you now, we are now seeing such a large-scale process from one side of the soft transit of power. when the principle is not just promised to the generation, this transit is already implemented, well, we can give many examples lead, starting with patryshev jr., kovalchuk jr. and putin's direct relatives, and on the other hand, we see with you every day, in fact every day, a mass purge among security forces, among businessmen, in fact loyalty. formal is now replaced by

totalitarian-type loyalty, if you clap your hands less than your neighbor, it means that you may not be very trustworthy, maybe you are ready for some separate negotiations, so this is what we are now observing on such a large scale , of course there are some interesting bursts, such as such inter-clan showdowns. someone was detained in particular, for example, the same ivanov or kibovskyi, this is the shiigu clan, and this is the sobyanin clan, but in general, this is only the background, the main process, precisely the soft transit of power and the clearing of the field from any, even formal, possible, potential disloyalty. and how do you see the transit of power, do you think that putin is at all ready to transfer power to someone during his physical life? no, he is not, exactly, it

does not fit into the transit of power. putin, he is a solipsist. if i don't exist, then russia doesn't exists, if russia does not exist, the world does not exist. why do we have such a world without russia, and as we know, russia is putin. just this soft transition of power is a guarantee of his preservation in power, it is a guarantee of his loyalty, his... entourage of this elite, because it is guaranteed, you will be loyal to me, and further after my death, your children will inherit this country , but if you are disloyal, first of all, you will be at least moved, like the number two person and the number three person, guts teiga, but at the most you just you will die from a detached thrombus, so precisely in this, in this is the trick, that... no, well

, one candidate, to whom i will hand over power, will not be named, then putin turns into a muck, this is such a stretched soft transit of power , which will last not, not determined for a long time, and it will exactly coincide with putin's physical existence, he does not need a clear, well, heir, we remember, even a hint that there may be a change of power, we remember, and ivanov, it led to some misunderstandings and equivocations, that's why putin will not repeat this mistake. well , this is an interesting point, so in fact we are hostages of his efforts not so much to transfer power, but to receive it. to what extent is war a tool for maintaining power in such a situation? well, the fact that he has completely replaced the internal summons, was replaced by an external one, it is not a secret, it is a truism, and we can see it. it's about all the troubles that

are happening in the russian federation, another dam that was simply washed away by the rain, fires that are equal to several european countries in terms of their territory, and so on and so forth, i i think you and i will see it just not even in months, but maybe in weeks , some new troubles, it's completely replaced, although this subpoena from... right now she, they 're trying to make her normal the new normal, they're trying to make her instrumentalize her , not only at the level of the fact that there is no time for anything other than this, but also to get some kind of, well, like a new loyal elite of the lower level, it is precisely from this that we get these primers with the participants of the war against ukraine, and even they are some municipal they get positions, they are such

trial layers, it seems to me that they are doing it for pro forma, they do not yet believe that the elite can really be updated, and there is no way out, that... then, that is, they are really on some at this level, i mean at the highest level, they do not see an exit from the war without such serious upheavals, although our research, for example, when we conducted immediately after the liberation of kherson in russia and asked if it was correct that the russians, that russian troops had left kherson , 74% of russians answered that yes, everything is correct, they kept it soldiers, it is true to the glory. therefore , it seems to me that at least a departure to the status quo of february 22nd, it will definitely not be such, you know, a point of no return and putin

will be overthrown, i don’t know, ultrapatriots, z-patriots, just one of the most ardent zriots is sitting in sizo, and the other is lying in the grave, so in fact, it seems to me... they are hostages of their fears, and why do we always have the idea of ​​​​this line of february 24, 22 , which, it seems to me, has long been absent in the minds of russians , they have the donetsk and luhansk people's republics there, which they annexed, which they are trying or they will be able to seize it or they will not be able to, and we live all the time in captivity of this strange line, well, the ldnr, so-called donetsk people's republic, they have been in their discourse since the 14th year, kherson. zaporizhzhia region, they call them, but now they are trying, they are trying new regions, navarossia, now they are the only ones trying to establish it in the discourse, while it comes out very badly, but we remember that in the 14th year it started in the same way , it

was also funny, strange, sinful, but constant repetition, constant, what is the main technique of propaganda? well, we have already talked a lot about this, what, what can we talk about here, well , you are talking about these borders again, well, crimea is already a closed issue, they also switched to the parts of donetsk luhansk that were captured at the time, and now they are using all their forces they are trying to talk about new regions, novorossia, and in fact in this way to legitimize in the eyes of the russians not so much that they can leave there, but that they can capture something else, as far as i understand it. idea, well, actually, there is a lot here an interesting idea, because propaganda has evolved and the russians could not , you know, manage it, when we asked before the first anniversary of the start of a full-scale war,

what are the goals, the absolute majority said yes, and when we asked the question, none of options, except for the demilitarization of the de-nazification of ukraine, i did not pick up here and there. 20-25%, these others there are 7, 8, 9%, the same , in fact, the same picture and on the second anniversary, in february, in february, in january, february of this year, we also conducted research on the second anniversary of the full-scale invasion, there is also no complete picture of the russians, why all this is happening, that is, they repeat what the propaganda says and from... respectively, here we return to your previous question and about the thesis that putin can actually afford to leave the captured territories , because propaganda has evolved so often, very often our interviewees, when i listened to the answers of the russians, they, they put

questions to the interior in turn, that is, you know, you understand the objectives of the svo, well, we, since we do for the russians, we call this is the svo, so as not to arouse suspicion, the russians changed the question in their turn, and you understand, well, tell me what the goals are, and it actually gives a huge, huge maneuver, room for maneuver to russia, to putin, to russia in general elites, how do you conduct such sociological polls in russia in general, how can they be conducted realistically, as well as russian sociologists, both kremlin and independent, as well as us? after covid, the only such solid method, when it was not possible to go by the route method of facebook, remained a telephone survey, it is used by all sociologists without exception, in fact now, we use it in the same way with the only exception,

we do not say that we are zapo, just act as a russian sociological center, just like that, and people are ready to talk, but is there still no such fear? what russian oppositionists say, that people are simply afraid to talk to sociologists, or tell them what needs to be heard from the official point of view, we do not... our main approach is that we do not ask any political questions, any ratings, to no trust in the authorities, in the opposition, in any issues that might put them in some awkward position, firstly, secondly, we don't use the word war, we use all of them, really our interiors speak pure russian, and accordingly, we try to understand the everyday life of russians, and... we try to ask questions that are within the competence of the russians, that is, so that they are not

the exception, that is, we really have questions like parquet, which we show conformity, but there are on the question of their direct life experience, for example, you have someone who was mobilized, yes or no, you have someone who died, yes or no, and well, in this, in this form, we are trying to understand how much... war entered their everyday life, because it is very important how much it touches an ordinary russian, and not only there a small part, for example, and we can say that the war really touches every ordinary russian now, or not, it is, it enters, it enters their lives, for example, due to the number of those people whom they know, who was mobilized and who died, this figure is... from study to study, we conducted the first study in december 22nd, and by the 24th we had already conducted eight

studies, there with a step of several months, ah, this number is simply increasing steadily and quite strongly, and we can say that indeed a third of them already have someone among their close circle who died, and the majority have those who are mobilized, that is, uh... talk about svo, some long-range special operation has long been out of the question, as if by the kremlin tried to do that? further, well, you and i do not see the second wave of mobilization, we understand that from a military point of view they should have carried it out a long time ago, girkin, who shouted about it, is sitting in prison because of this, although he could have died because of this, this is also... objective data why they don't do it: 74% of russians are against the second wave

of mobilization, when we initially conducted this, asked this question in december, 62% were against, in fact, this figure in a year increased, well, by 12%, these figures are in the kremlin, they also conduct these studies, that's why we we see a clear understanding that this will cause a very negative reaction and accordingly we do not see with you... waves of mobilization, here is a simple example of why research should be done. well , in fact, we can say that russian society is indifferent to the war, when it itself does not take part in this war, that's right, you can say that, you can draw such a conclusion, it is this in the first place, yes, it is in the first place, -secondly, this society does not accept any responsibility for this war, accordingly, when we ask the question, do you agree that in in the case of... a corresponding decision of the international court, it will be necessary to pay reparations to russia 71%

say no, it will be a weakness and in general we are not here for anything, it is to understand what we are dealing with in the future, and what, well, actually to appeal to our partners that, for example, there is no chance that these same 300 billion should be returned to russia, not only the kremlin, not only the russian authorities, but... society in general does not want to pay for this war, the passive majority, liberal- minded zpatriots , there is a consensus in to russian society that they don't want to pay for this war, even if it ends there tomorrow, this is important for our understanding of planning there for 5-10 years ahead, and in general, this society, it is not empathetic, and really the only thing that.. . what can we influence, what can we push back from, it is really better to cheer from

the couch than to participate directly in this war. thank you, mr. oleksandr. oleksandr shulga, doctor of sociological sciences, head of the institute of conflict studies and analysis of russia, we it was precisely the mood in russian society that spoke to him. well, we see that russian society is basically indifferent to this aggressive war. which vladimir putin started against ukraine, at the same time, as often happens with such societies, he wants all the victories to happen without his direct participation, he wants someone else to win. foreign territories wants, so to speak, to rake the joke with other people's hands, this is even such a famous russian proverb, which, as we can see, now directly responds to what is happening in the russian-ukrainian front. we will now take a break for a few minutes, but stay with us, there are still important dialogues ahead. there are discounts representing the only discounts

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rada regularly passes new laws, but how do these changes affect? for our lives, we analyzed new resolutions to inform you about the latest changes in ukrainian legislation, how legislative norms change our lives, what to prepare for, these and other questions that concern ukrainians will be answered by leading lawyers of the aktum bar association, watch every tuesday at 7:55 in the legal expertise program on the espresso tv channel. greetings, this is svoboda live on radio svoboda. we have already approached the snake itself. the following shots may shock you. live news from the scene. kamikaze drone attacks. political analytics objectively and meaningfully. there is no political season. exclusive interviews, reports from the hottest points

of the front. shot. svoboda life - frankly and impartially. you draw your own conclusions. we continue the politclub program on the espresso tv channel. our next guest is dmytro yefrimov, an expert of the ukrainian association of chinese studies and an associate professor of the department of international relations at the kyiv-magylyan academy. congratulations, mr. dmytro. good evening. well, dmytro kuliba visited guangzhou, met with the minister of foreign affairs. affairs of the people's republic of china one vaney was it is said that the ukrainian side did not say that china would not sell weapons to russia, that it respects ukrainian territorial integrity, etc. after that , vanyi immediately meets with the minister of foreign affairs of russia, sergey lavrov, and he rejects any possibility of negotiations between russia and ukraine, after that, vanyi

holds the next meeting with the secretary of state of the united states, anthony blinken, who is in conflict, by the way , which volodymyr zelenskyi and dmytro kuleba also said, emphasizes that the united states and will continue to oppose military aid from china to the russian federation. well , what changed then? as a result, when we remember, we hear all these statements that were made again, and in the same key from the same players. ukraine relies on china, russia ignores any negotiation offers, the united states continues to insist that china is helping russia in its war with ukraine? yes, you have indeed spotted the main trend. china has the position it took at the beginning of the war, and it has been going on for these two years practically has not changed. and dmytro koleva's visit to china looks extraordinary against the background of this position. china has a convenient, comfortable position for it, it does not have to do anything, it

has made up its mind, it positions itself as a neutral player, it positions itself as the side that can conduct a dialogue with everyone with whom it deems necessary, that it does not support war , is not a participant in the war, and in general, with such a position, china has incentives to meet with the minister. there were no foreign affairs of ukraine, that is, china itself invited kuleba, and this visit happened, so this event looks against the background of the general chinese line of extraordinary, and here there is a reason why, why it was necessary to get out of such a comfort zone and, let's say, radically change it, inviting hesitation and creating such a distortion, or let's say a stormy commentary on chinese politics in all corners of the world from... from this point of view, if the general line has changed so radically, there have been some extraordinary circumstances that have pushed china

to do so. i think these circumstances are connected with the fact that china has come to realize that that the probability of victory in the united states in the election of president donald trump is extremely high, all these events that have happened there in the last month, a month and a half, that is, the debate is unsuccessful for biden. the shooting in pennsylvania, when trump was assassinated, the democratic party scrambling to determine who will succeed biden, and so on. and watching all this, chinese specialists, observers, and those who work, perhaps in the ministry of foreign affairs, they came to the conclusion that the victory trump is inevitable, and for china it will be even worse and even more catastrophic than it was before, they began to analyze what trump says about... china, what his policy will be and what risks arise with it, and so to prepare for these challenges , and trump there spoke, for example, about tariffs of 100% or 60%

on all chinese goods, spoke about new sanctions, about new restrictions and shifting the center of attention from ukraine, from the middle east to the pacific region and china, and feeling this threat, they began to analyze and think about what they can do to do, how can they... strengthen their position in this situation, what do they need, how can they compensate for these new trade wars that trump can probably start again against the united states, and for them one of the obvious answers to these questions is -e intensification of communication with the european union, with european politicians, with european leaders and so on. remember, in may, xi jinping made a visit to europe and... this visit was about trade, it was not about ukraine, not about nato, but about trade, they agreed on under what conditions china can trade, how to ease restrictions, whether europe will agree not

to introduce various sanctions against chinese companies and so on, how this whole dialogue will work, and in order to strengthen its relations with europe, china needed to show a certain gesture, a certain a signal to europeans that they are listening to... their most important concerns and problems, and these problems are related to ukraine, related to security risks, which european leaders regularly told sidzen pinu during bilaterals, multilateral meetings, and xi jinping practically never responded to them in any clear way, but simply referred them to the chinese position, which had already been presented earlier. and now, feeling this threat, china had to look for some other ways, and this dialogue. with europe is possible only if china sends a certain positive signal that it is ready to communicate with ukraine, ready to change its position, adapt it to new challenges and conditions. but

in fact this, at least from my point of view, became the main reason why china suddenly offered the minister of foreign affairs of ukraine to meet, and such a meeting took place in gwangju. well, first of all, i want to understand from the point of view of logic, well, purely chinese politics, if china believes that it is a neutral participant in events and china all the time accuses the west of the fact that the west is just not neutral, and that it supplies ukraine with weapons and incites '. that there is a war, and china is neutral, so it is a neutral country and should communicate with both participants in the conflict. the chinese spoke to andriy, the first deputy minister of foreign affairs of ukraine sobyzia, when he was in beijing, well, we would have come to switzerland, but you did not invite russia, and we want both sides to be present. well, in this logic, it is absolutely correct to invite the ukrainian minister of foreign affairs and communicate with him, we are neutral. here we are talking with lavrov, here we are talking with koleba, what is the change of position here, here is

me. it's not very clear, it's just that china is not neutral, they talk only with the russians, if they are neutral, then they talk here and there, no, well, theirs, theirs they proclaimed neutrality from the beginning, and how many times since the beginning they met with lavrov and with putin, sydzenpin met with putin less than 10 times, something like six or eight, with lavrov that is one and a half dozen meetings, with kulema there was only one, and it was there were several telephone calls on the site, which seems to be of the united nations. and a few phone calls between them and that's all, that is, the level of intensity of communication was different, of course, that china presents it as such, that it sees the situation as he says this, he has his own special approach to the settlement of this conflict, he presents it this way and it is of course so convenient for him, but in fact we see that it was a distortion, a distortion in favor of the russian federation,

a distortion of the project. which was regularly pointed out to china by other western politicians, and which he essentially routinely ignored. now he had extraordinary incentives to invite kuleba suddenly, unexpectedly, unannounced and carry out such a dialogue. and tell me, what changes from the point of view of this invitation, the minister of foreign affairs of ukraine visited china, to whom is this really a signal? russia, then wang-yi, then wangi goes to laos, where he meets with a high... representative of the european union borel, where he says: look, you wanted us to talk with ukraine, here we are, and now let's decide our with you bilateral issues related to trade, the conditions for the admission of chinese goods to european markets and the conditions for the access of chinese investors to, say, european high-tech companies, well, i already explained yes, but in reality there are not high-tech companies, but in general companies, nevertheless, in china. there is a very

useful interest and from my point of view china's sensitivity to the situation in ukraine will also depend very heavily on how the trade negotiations proceed. we already have essentially a collapse of the international system of settlement of trade disputes and, let's say, of the system of organizing world trade. the world trade organization (wto ) is dysfunctional, it is blocked, including by the united states. these agreements are not working now, the world is from the point of view of... trade is moving towards the creation of some mega large trading blocs, and countries are in relation to each other, or large regions, they will be united internally and separated from others by high tariff protective barriers, and here the dialogue is very, very important, that is, that this process continues at different speeds, so that an agreement can be reached between the eu and china, when the eu and the united states also start to conflict, trump already during his previous term was just

as active... attacking not only china itself in trade, but the european union as well, there were great frictions, and they caused difficulties in dialogue with europeans. and china also assumes that this is trump's coming to power, of course, these are colossal risks for china itself, but this is also a window of opportunity, er, to get closer, to get closer to the europeans. i'll be honest, i'm surprised that they sincerely believe that they can get the europeans to change their position and that they can... dialogue can develop, but this is chinese policy, they implement it consistently, they think that they can establish two-way communication level with different countries, and thus achieve the promotion of their interests to the pan-european level, that is why they continue this dialogue with hungary, that is why they communicate with france, that is why george...