well, the heir, we remember, even a hint that there could be a change of power, we remember, medvedev and ivanov, it led to some misunderstandings, equivocations, so putin will not repeat this mistake, well, this is an interesting moment , therefore , in fact, we are hostages of his efforts not so much to transfer power, but to retain it, to the extent that war is a tool for retaining power in such a situation, well, what he has completely, well... the subpoena has been replaced, replaced by an external one, this is not a secret, this is a truism , and we see it in virtually all the troubles that happening in the russian federation, another dam that was washed away by a downpour, fires that are equal to several european countries in terms of their territory, and so on and so on, i think you and i will see it just not even in months... for weeks of some

new turmoil, it's completely replaced, even though this subpoena right now, she, they're trying to make her normal the new normal, they 're trying to make her instrumentalize her not only to the level of not having time for anything but that, but also to get some , well, it seems like a new loyal elite of the lower level, this is exactly what we are... with the participants in the war against ukraine, and even they receive some municipal positions, these are such test layers, it seems to me that they are doing it for the proforma, they are not yet believe that the renewal of the elite can really be done, and there is no way out, that is, they are really at some such, i mean at the highest level, they do not see a way out of the war without such serious...

shocks, although our research , for example, when we spent immediately after the release kherson in russia, and were asked if it was right for the russians to leave kherson with russian troops, 74% of russians answered that yes, everything was right, they kept the soldiers, it was the right decision, so it seems to me that at least a departure to the status quo 22- th year of february, he... will definitely not be, well, such, you know, the point at which, if he does not return, putin will be overthrown, i don’t know, ultrapatriots, z-patriots, but just one of the most ardent z-patriots is sitting in a pre-trial detention center, and the other lies in the grave, therefore, in fact, it seems to me that they are hostages of their fears, and why do we always have the idea of ​​this the line of february 24, 2022, which , it seems to me, has long been absent from the minds of russians. they

have the donetsk-luhansk people's republic there, which they annexed, which they are trying to either be able to capture or not, and we live all the time in captivity of this strange line, well , the ldnr, yes, the so-called donetsk people's republic, they are in them in the discourse since the 14th year, they call them kherson, zaporizhzhia regions, but now they are trying, they are trying new regions, novorossia, now only they are trying to approve it. in discourse, while it comes out very badly, but we remember that in the 14th year it started in the same way, it was also funny, strange, sinful, but constant repetition, constant, what is the main technique of propaganda, well, let's talk about it many have already talked about what, what to talk about here, well, you are talking about these borders again, well, crimea is already a closed issue, they also switched to the west. then parts

of donetsk, luhansk, and now they are trying with all their might to talk about new regions, novorossia, and in fact in a way to legitimize in the eyes of the russians not so much the fact that they can leave there, but the fact that it can capture something else, as far as i understand, this is the idea, well, in fact, it is a very interesting idea, because propaganda has evolved and the russians could not her... you know, in time, when we asked before the first anniversary of the start of a full-scale war, what are the goals, the absolute majority said yes, and when we asked the question, none of the options, except for the demilitarization of the denazification of ukraine, gained 20-25% there , these others are there 7-8-9%, the same in fact the same picture and on the second anniversary in... february in february in january

february this year we also conducted research on the second anniversary of the full-scale invasion, so there is no complete picture in russia either. why is all this happening, that is, they repeat what the propaganda says, and accordingly, here we go back to your previous question and the prosthesis that putin can actually afford to leave the captured territories, because the propaganda has evolved so so often, very often our respondents, i when listened to the answers of the russians, they, they put questions to the interior in turn. that is, you know, you understand the goals of the svo, well, we, since we do it for the russians, we call it the svo, so as not to cause suspicion, the russians changed the question in their turn, and you understand, well, tell me what the goals are, and it actually gives a huge, huge maneuver,

room for maneuver to russia, to putin, to the russian elite in general. and how do you conduct such sociological surveys in russia in general, how can they be conducted realistically? as well as russian sociologists, both kremlin and independent, as well as us, after kovid, the only such solid method, when it was not possible to go by route method face-to-face, remained a telephone survey, it is used by all sociologists without exception, in fact now, as well we also use, with the only exception, we do not say that we are zapo, just speak as: the russian sociological center, just like that, and people are ready to speak, but there is still no such thing, the fear of what the russian oppositionists say, that people just are afraid talk to sociologists, or tell them what they need to hear from an official point of view, we

don't ask, our main approach, we don't ask any political questions, no ratings, to any trust in the authorities, to the opposition, to any questions, which can... put them, well, in some awkward position, first, secondly, we don't use the word war, we use all of them, really our interiors speak pure russian, and accordingly we try to understand the everyday life of russians, and we try to ask questions, well, which ones are within the competence of the russians, that is so that they are not the only ones, that is, we really have such parquet questions that we ... show conformity, but there are questions about their direct life experience, well, for example, you have someone who was mobilized, that's right or not, you have someone who died, yes or no, well, in this way, in this way, we are trying to understand

how much the war has entered their everyday life, because it is very important, how much it affects an ordinary russian, and not only there is a small part, for example. and we can say that the war is really touching now every ordinary russian, or not yet? yes, it enters, it enters their lives, for example, because of the number of people they know, who were mobilized and who died, this figure, it is from study to study, we conducted the first study in december 22nd, and here by the 24th, they had already conducted eight studies there with a step of several months. this number is simply increasing steadily and quite strongly, and we can say that indeed a third already has someone among a fairly close circle who died, and the majority there are those who are mobilized, that is

, it has been impossible to talk about the svo, some distant special operation for a long time, how would the kremlin try to do it? further, well, you and i do not see the second wave of mobilization, we understand that from a military point of view they should have carried it out a long, long time ago, the bittern who shouted about it is sitting in prison because of this, although he could have died because of this, this is also objective data, why they don't do it, 74% of russians are against the second wave of mobilization, when we initially conducted it... put it question in december, 62% were against it, in fact , this figure increased in a year, well, by 12%, these figures are also in the kremlin, they also conduct these studies, so we see a clear understanding that this will cause a very negative reaction, and

accordingly we do not see a second wave of mobilization with you, here is a simple example of why we need to conduct research, well, in fact , we can say that russian society, it is indifferent to the war, when it itself does not participate in this... that's right, it's possible say, such a conclusion is possible to do, this is this first, yes, this is primarily, secondly, this society does not accept any responsibly. for this war, respectively, when we ask the question, do you agree that in case of a corresponding decision of the international court, it will be necessary to pay reparations to russia, 71% say, no, it will be a weakness and in general we are here for nothing, it is to understand that what we are dealing with in the future, and with what, well, in fact, what to appeal to our partners that, for example, the same 300 billion is not... there is no chance that they should be returned to russia, not only the kremlin, not only the russian government, but

society in general does not want to pay for this war, the passive majority, liberals, z-patriots, there is a consensus in russian society that they do not want to pay for this war, even if it ends there tomorrow, this it is important for our understanding of planning there for 5-10 years ahead, well, in general, it is not empathetic and really the only thing that what we can influence, what we can push back from, it is really better to cheer from the couch , than to participate directly in this war thank you, mr. oleksandr. oleksandr shulga, doctor of sociological sciences, head of the institute of conflict studies and analysis of russia, we spoke with him, just the mood of the russian. society, well, we see that russian society, in principle, indifferent to this aggressive war that

vladimir putin started against ukraine, at the same time, as is often the case with such societies, wants all victories to take place without his direct participation, wants someone else to conquer other people's territories, wants, so to speak, to rake a joke by someone else's hands, this is even such a famous russian proverb, which, as we can see directly now... echoes what is happening on the russian-ukrainian front. we will now break for a few minutes, but stay with us, there are still important dialogues ahead. there are discounts , the only discounts are natoloxen, 10% in pharmacies plantain, pam and oskad. there are discounts that represent the only discounts on mikrolaks, 20% at travel pharmacies for you and savings. there are discounts in travel bank pharmacies and savings of up to 30%, discounts are valid until the end of july, there are discounts

represent the only discounts on exoderl of 15% in pharmacies of travelers to you and the saver. vasyl zima's big broadcast. my name is vasyl zima, this is a big broadcast on the espresso tv channel. two hours of broadcast. two hours of your time, i and my colleagues will talk about the most important thing, two hours to learn about the war, about the military, front, component, serhiy zurets, and what the world lives by. yuriy fizar is already with me, and it's time to talk about what happened outside of ukraine. yury, good evening. two hours to keep up with economic news. time talk about money in wartime. oleksandr morchyvka field with me and sports news. i would like to invite yevhen postakhov to the conversation. two hours in the company of your favorite presenters. but cultural news, alena chekchenina. our mouth watcher is ready to say good evening to the presenters, who to many have already become familiar with me, is ready

to talk about the weather for this weekend, as well as the distinguished guests of the studio. mustafa dzhemilov, the leader of the crimean tatar people, is in touch with us, mr. mustafa, i congratulate you. good day. events of the day in two hours. big ether vasyl zyma, a project for smart and caring people. espresso in the evening. only you. on the air of our channel. congratulations, friends, the politclub program is on the air on the espresso tv channel. the most relevant topics of the week: nato member countries have huge arsenals, and russia is already on the verge of exhausting its resources. topics that resonate in our society. this is the question of trump's victory, what is it? analysis of the processes that change the country and each of us. what else can the russians do, are they able to use, let's say, the resources there of the lukashenka army allied with them. vitaliy portnikov and the guests of the project, read all the words, accept my singing, thank you, it

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the espresso tv channel, our next guest is dmytro yefremov, an expert of the ukrainian association of china studies and an associate professor of the department of international covenants. nosin of the kyivol academy. congratulations , mr. dmytro. good evening. well, dmytro koleba visited guangzhou, met with the minister of foreign affairs of the people's republic of china, wang. it was it is said that on the ukrainian side, the chinese side said that china will not sell weapons to russia, that it respects ukrainian territorial integrity, etc. after that , she immediately meets with the minister of foreign affairs of russia, sergey lavrov. and that one. rejects any possibility of negotiations between russia and ukraine, already after that vanyi holds the next meeting with the secretary of state of the united states antony blinken, who, in contradiction, by the way, to what volodymyr zelenskyi and dmytro kuleba said, emphasizes that the united states and in the future, they will oppose military aid from china to the russian federation, but what has changed in the result, when everything

is like all these statements that were, we hear again, and in the same tone from. the same players, ukraine relies on china, russia ignores any negotiation offers, the united states continues to insist that china is helping russia in its war with ukraine. yes, you've really nailed the main trend: china has the position it took around the beginning of the war, and here it is and has been going on for these two years and has practically not changed, and dmitry koleva's visit to china looks extraordinary against the background of this position in china. a comfortable, comfortable position for him, he does not have to do anything, he has made up his mind, he positions himself as a neutral player, he positions himself as the party that can conduct a dialogue with everyone with whom it deems necessary, that it does not support war, does not is a participant in the war, and in general, with such a position , china

had no incentives to meet with the minister of foreign affairs of ukraine, that is, china itself invited kuleba, and this visit from... happened, so this event looks extraordinary against the background of the general chinese line, and here there is a reason why, why it was necessary to leave such a comfort zone and, let's say, radically change it, inviting kuleba and creating such a distortion, or shall we say a stormy commentary on chinese politics in all corners of the world, from my point of view, if its general line has changed so radically. there were some extraordinary circumstances that pushed china to do this. i think these circumstances are connected with the fact that in the chinese have come to realize that the probability of victory in the united states in the election of president donald trump is extremely high. all these events that took place there during the last month, a month and a half, that is, the debate was unsuccessful for

biden. the shooter in pennsylvania, when there was an assassination attempt on trump, made a fuss of the democrats. party to determine who will succeed biden and so on. and watching all this, chinese specialists, observers and those who work, perhaps in the ministry of foreign affairs, they came to the conclusion that trump's victory was inevitable, and for china it would be even worse and even more catastrophic than before, they began to analyze what trump was saying about china, what his policies would be, and what risks this would entail, and to prepare to these challenges, trump there said, for example, about tariffs of 100% or 60% on all chinese goods, he said about new sanctions, about new restrictions and shifting the center of attention from ukraine, from the middle east to the pacific region and china . and sensing this threat, they started analyze and consider what they can do, how they can strengthen their position

in this situation, what they need, how they can compensate for these new ones. wars that trump can probably start again against the united states, and for them one of the obvious answers to these questions was the intensification of communication with the european union, with european politicians, with european leaders and so on. remember, in may xi jinping made a visit to europe, and this visit was about trade, it was not about ukraine, not about nato, but about trade they agreed on what... conditions china can trade, how to ease restrictions, whether europe will agree not to introduce various sanctions against chinese companies, and so on, how will this dialogue work? and in order to strengthen its relations with europe, china needed to demonstrate a certain gesture, a certain signal to the europeans that they are listening to their most important

concerns and problems, and these problems are related to ukraine, related to security risks, about which european leaders regularly told xi jinping during bilateral and multilateral meetings, and xi jinping almost never responded to them in any clear way, but rather... referred them to the chinese position that had already been presented before, and now, sensing this threat, china had to look for some other ways, and this dialogue with europe is possible only on the condition that china receives a certain positive signal that it is ready to communicate with ukraine, ready to change its position, adapt it to new challenges and conditions, but in essence it is at least from my point of view became the main reason that... china suddenly invited the minister of foreign affairs of ukraine to meet, and such a meeting took place in guangzhou. well, first of all, i want to understand from the point of view of logic, well, purely chinese

politics, if china believes that it is a neutral participant in the events, and china all the time accuses the west of the fact that the west is somehow neutral, and that it supplies weapons to ukraine and incites further war, and china is neutral, so a neutral country should communicate with both parties to the conflict. china? spoke with the first deputy minister minister of foreign affairs of ukraine andrii sabiza, when he was in beijing, well, we would have come to switzerland, but you did not invite russia, and we want both sides to be present, well , in this logic, it is absolutely correct to invite the ukrainian minister of foreign affairs and communicate with they are neutral, here we are talking with lavrov, here we are talking with koliba, what is the change of position here, but it is not very clear to me, precisely because china is not neutral, they only talk with the russians if they are neutral. they have proclaimed from the beginning and how many times since at the beginning they met with lavrov and with putin, sydzenpin met with putin under

10 times, something like six or eight, with lavrov - that's one and a half dozen meetings, with koleva there was only one, and it was at the site, it seems, of the united nations , there were several phone calls, the munich conference, and yes, and the munich conference, which was recently held, yes, and several phone calls. between them and that's all, that is, the level of intensity of communication was different, of course, that china presents it as such, that it sees the situation that way, and it has, as it says, its own personality his special approach to the settlement of this conflict, he presents it this way, and of course it is so convenient for him, but in fact we see that it was a distortion, a distortion in favor of the russian federation, a distortion that was regularly pointed out to china, other western politicians, and which it is essentially regular. ignored, now he had extraordinary incentives to invite kuleba suddenly, unexpectedly, unannounced and carry out such a dialogue. and tell me, what changes from the point

of view of this invitation, the minister visited of foreign affairs of ukraine in china, to whom this is really a signal from russia from wang yi, then wang yi goes to laos, where he meets with the high representative of the european union borel, where he says: look, you wanted us to talk with ukraine, here we are. .. let's talk, and now let's go on to solve our bilateral problems with you, which relate to trade, the conditions for the admission of chinese goods to european markets, and the conditions for chinese investors' access to, say, european high-tech companies, well, i'm already explaining, yes, but in fact not high-tech companies there, but companies in general, nevertheless, there is a very useful interest in china, and from my point of view , china's sensitivity to the situation. in ukraine will also very seriously depend on how the trade negotiations proceed. we already have essentially a collapse of the international system of settlement of trade disputes and,

let's say, the system of organization of world trade. the wto, the world trade organization , is dysfunctional, it is blocked, including by the united states. these deals are not working now. the world, from the point of view of trade is moving towards the creation of some mega large trade blocs. and countries, one accordingly. to one or large regions, they will be united internally and separated from others by high tariff protection barriers, and here the dialogue is very, very important, that is, that this process continues at different speeds, so that an agreement can be reached between the eu and china, when the eu and the united states will also come into conflict. already during his previous term of office, trump actively attacked not only china itself in trade, but also the european union, there were large friction and... they caused difficulties in the dialogue with the europeans, and here china also assumes that this is trump's coming to power, these are of course colossal risks for china itself, but this is also

a window of opportunity, er, to get closer, get closer to the europeans . i'll be honest, i'm surprised that they sincerely believe that they can get the europeans to change their position and that they can, can develop a dialogue. but this is the chinese policy, they implement it consistently. they think they can establish two-way communication level with different countries and thus achieve promotion of their interests to the pan-european level. that's why they 're continuing this dialogue with... with hungary, that's why they're talking to france, that's why georgia maloney is going to china and they 're welcoming her, so this whole process is going on, and they're probably going to try to solve their trade issues through two-way communication, and then bring it to the pan-european level. and tell me, but we need to pack our bags so quickly and go, if we are invited somewhere, what do i have i mean, how long did it actually take

from... dmytro koliba's invitation to china to his arrival in gongzhou, well, a few weeks, right? because before the peace summit in switzerland, at the beginning of june, the deputy minister was in china, and there were certainly arguments there, they did not agree to his visit until the last, and at the same time it was just before the conference in switzerland, when china also had to decide, is he going there or does not go, and he also kept a pause until the last, that is, this is a very sudden visit, so do we have to agree to such schemes, maybe we should still, if they want to see ukraine somewhere, they want to see the ukrainian minister somewhere, maybe we need to put forward our conditions for holding such meetings, and then meet, because, that is, not to give the opportunity to use ukraine as a tool for improving relations with europe , let's say, of course it would be worth doing if ukraine had a strong position in

this situation. indeed, we can trade there, try with china, say, if we do not have an understanding with you on our problem, we will seek communications there with taiwan or apply some other measures, but ukraine always has a weaker position against china, because we have trade with china for this six months, we sold 1.7 billion dollars of grain there, and one reminded about this in his press release , that we buy you... grain, remember that, we provide your logistics, remember that, plus we from china supply, we buy a very important animal for us right now, which is drones, which potentially the chinese authorities also can affect, that is , we do not have such a potentially powerful one now position so that we can bargain there firmly, achieve our terms and so on, the more so i think that the president's administration has its own strategy in relation to china, it consists in searching. negotiation and

compromise, and now they are implementing it. and tell me, are you not surprised by the fact that the statements of the two ministries of foreign affairs differ so sharply from the point of view of theses that everything that was needed by ukraine, which is in the statement of the ukrainian foreign ministry, is practically absent in the statement of the chinese ministry of foreign affairs, maybe it does not matter value, in the end, real negotiations take place behind the scenes, not in statements, but the very fact that there is no territorial integrity there, there is nothing to comment on, i am ready to comment on it. what the chinese side says, i regularly monitor their press releases, compare it with what happens as a result of meetings from other countries, and practice, expressing their position radically different from the position of the guest, this is a normal case for them, they express themselves very often and with the russian federation, just as completely different conclusions and comments, yes, they always focus on what is important to them in their press releases of cooperation,

on the development of partnership, on the fact that this or that country is or is not a participant in the belt and road initiative, on how much they have diplomatic communications are ongoing, how successful they are and so on, that is, china is more like a ritual for them, they reproduce certain standardized points there from communique to communique, from press release to press release, and she is the addressee of these messages faster after all, there is not even a guest and not an internal one. audience, a the addressee is the countries of the global south, to which china tries time and time again to demonstrate that it is a reliable partner, stable, peaceful, er, ready to help in development, ready to support the solution of some of their regional problems or conflicts, invest in their infrastructure, and the like , that is, china is better than the united states, the leader.