thank you very much for joining. today we will talk about hungary, about the prime minister of hungary viktor orbán and about the very sensitive topic of ukrainian-hungarian relations. if you don't mind, i'll start with that. consequently, ukraine blocked the transit of russian oil to slovakia and hungary. appealed to the european commission to put pressure on ukraine to cancel this decision. how far do you think the hungarian government will go to convince ukraine to allow oil through this pipeline. thank you, this is a very sensitive issue. in fact, details are important here value. today, oil transit did not stop

completely. russian onion oil has been sanctioned by ukraine, but other russian companies can still use this pipeline, such as rosneft, tatneft, bashneft and others. so this story does not mean that the flow of oil has stopped completely. also because ukraine needs oil transit. ukraine needs and for transit, which comes from the oil pipeline. if we talk about hungary's reaction, then we have to start from the events that took place two years earlier. the european union at the end on may 22, about 3 months after the full-scale invasion, sanctions were imposed on oil imports from russia via pipelines. three eu countries asked for

a postponement: the czech republic, slovakia and hungary. they claimed that they did not have the funds to immediately diversify their imports of russian oil, and for technological reasons they had to continue using it. the czech republic has since resolved this problem, but hungary and slovakia still use russian oil. the postponement was granted by the european there is no end to the union. ye called on both bratislava and budapest to diversify the supply of russian oil as soon as possible, but no deadline was specified in the text of the document. since then, budapest and bratislava will continue to import russian oil. this is not the only source of imports, but it is significant. so, if the flow of oil were to stop completely, and it hasn't, that would be a major blow to the energy security of both countries, but again, we're not there yet

. as for hungary's reaction, it should be noted that it was an immediate reaction budapest announced its intention to block the european peace fund. this fund, this amount of money is about 6.5 billion euros, which should compensate those eu countries that provide military aid to ukraine. so, budapest initially blocks the payment of these 6.5 billion euros. in fact, it does not harm ukraine directly. this harms the european countries that help ukraine. but this is a kind of indirect measure. budapest has effectively blocked this european peace fund for quite some time, citing various reasons. so that's it will definitely happen. budapest will continue to block the european peace fund, but this block has lasted for years. in addition, hungary asked the european commission to put pressure on ukraine, but the european commission replied that for now...

more information, more investigations are needed, so there will be no direct intervention by the european commission, well at least now, for now because hungary has already chosen essentially the maximum escalation. that is, the blocking of the european peace fund for 6.5 billion euros. i don't expect that budapest can do much more. so, you hear from hungarian officials that hungary can block the prospects of ukraine joining the eu, but joining the eu is... a long way, it will be several years before ukraine can join the european union. it will definitely happen, but it will not be a quick process, so in the short term , budapest has no way to put pressure on ukraine, but blocking the european peace fund, blocking 6.5 billion euros, is definitely one way, it will continue.

orban not only to moscow, but also to beijing and washington. he also stated that the european union reacted to this with a yellow card. does brussels have the power to finally show viktor orbán a red card. need. define what a red card is. if we stick to the football metaphor, then a red card means that the player must leave the field. it won't happen, no one can be kicked out of the european union, so unlike football here he can have a few yellow

cards and still stay in the game for now. a trip to moscow, as well as a trip to beijing, and how these trips. conduct is a serious violation of both written and unwritten rules of how an eu country should conduct foreign policy. consequently, it caused a great scandal and publicity within the european union. certain political countermeasures have already been applied. for example, some eu member states are boycotting high-level meetings of the hungarian eu presidency. viktor orban was invited to the european parliament to present his presidential program. the head of the european commission ursula fondeen is not going to come to budapest, which is a very strong diplomatic signal. however, when it comes to

practical countermeasures, punitive measures of sorts, the eu can do nothing. unlike in football, a player who breaks the rules will not be sent off the field of play, but he will have much less opportunity to achieve something in the game, and this is what will happen to hungary, it is already happening to them. it is already clear that the trip to moscow caused hungary serious reputational losses in terms of prestige and trust of the allies. meanwhile, it is not at all clear what exactly hungary is benefited from this trip, so the minuses are clear, but... no one notes the organization of the moscow trip, the things that orbán and putin discussed, and the purpose of all this remains some kind of mystery, some kind of secret, it is simply not clear that hungary benefited from this, but it is clear that she has lost. can we say that mr. orbán

is somehow dependent on putin, based on what we saw during his trip to russia and what he said. it is very difficult to assess, the last time they met was in beijing, already then during the orbán beijing meeting openly said that the previous meeting in beijing was initiated by putin, and orbán could not say no. it was actually very revealing, it's very difficult for an eu or nato prime minister. if putin... called them to go, then they had to go. such was the previous meeting. regarding the current meeting, which took place two days after the trip to kyiv, the hungarian narrative is that it was budapest that initiated it, but

again it is not clear what hungary actually gained from it. instead, it is quite clear what russia got. it was very it is interesting to observe how the russian state media covered this visit. when putin and orbán started a discussion, literally in the fifth sentence, putin called orbán an envoy of the european union, which is technically certainly not true. but all the russian media covered orban's visit as if the president of the european union had come to moscow, showing how important a player russia is and that it is not isolated at all. for several days , all russian state media virtually celebrated this meeting, noting how important a player putin is to the president of the european union. so, from a point of view. russia won a lot, and it was very profitable for her. why was it good for hungary? i honestly don't know. mr. orban also said that he has some kind of peace plan for ukraine. do you know the details of this peace

plan? i tried to find it on the internet but couldn't find anything. ugh. it's not yours. guilt, there is no plan, this narrative about the plan is actually very interesting because orbán does not have the three things necessary to mediate. first, he doesn't have a plan, second, he doesn't has a mandate, no one else can provide it, thirdly, he has no legitimacy, so it is interesting to imagine why orbán said that he is going to promote peace in ukraine. also , let's not forget that in order to achieve peace, we first need a ceasefire. so, the peace plan must be preceded by a ceasefire , this is a technical detail. as for

the plan itself, there is no orbán plan, when he met with president zelensky, he called for some strange form of segmented ceasefire, but this has not been detailed, and i am not aware of any document that elaborates on this idea of ​​a segmented ceasefire. when he went to moscow, he didn't even get to say a word, because putin said almost immediately that russia was not ready to accept any external peace plan. and that the war should end according to the russian position. this is the ultimatum that russia announced just a day before the peace summit regarding ukraine and switzerland. the same ultimatum, which you know very well, ukraine must completely

abandon donetsk, luhansk, zaporizhzhia and kherson regions and crimea. the ukrainian army must completely withdraw its troops from these regions. ukraine should forget about the intention to join nato and so on. so basically, putin didn't even let orbán explain his own ideas. instead, he issued the usual russian ultimatums. when orbán went to beijing, he did the third thing, he praised the chinese peace plan, the same chinese peace plan or settlement plan that china offered on the first anniversary of the war. so, in kyiv, moscow and to beijing, orbán essentially voiced three different plans, so i don't see him having a plan of his own, it's the lack of a plan. as for the lack of a mandate, no one asked hungary to mediate in this

war, no one asked hungary to do anything in the war. in order to be successful in mediation efforts, one must have a mandate to do so. this leads to the third point: lack of trust. currently, hungary does not have the confidence within the eu and nato necessary for any mediation efforts. relations between hungary and ukraine have existed for a long time tense so, if ukraine were to ask any country to become a mediator, then... definitely not hungary, isn't it, to put it mildly, and if we talk about russia, then from their point of view hungary is still primarily an eu country and nato, a member of two alliances that moscow perceives as hostile, so it would be very unusual if russia decided to trust orbán, yes, orbán is a useful tool for moscow, and hungarian foreign policy for russian diplomacy, but this does not at all mean that between they create trust, therefore even three basic requirements are necessary for any kind of peace.

orbán always says that the hungarian government will continue to provide humanitarian aid to ukraine, but not weapons, because it could... a staff war, when it was not yet clear whether ukraine would be able to withstand and how many territories the russians actually occupy, maybe so. but after ukraine won near kiev, after ukraine managed to push

the russians out of mykolaiv oblast, then to liberate part of kherson oblast, then to liberate kharkiv oblast, and after the front in basically stabilized in october-november of the 22nd year, since then no one could have thought that the russian army would ever come much closer to hungary. it's not what. someone was seriously afraid from the hungarian side, i mean, you can think or say a lot of bad things about hungarian diplomacy or foreign policy, but the people who deal with it are professionals. at a certain level, hungary exchanges information with the eu and nato, so budapest has data to correctly assess the situation. therefore, the argument, or yours the kind of argument that budapest does not give weapons because these weapons will bring the front line closer to hungary makes no sense. it's more

like an excuse. i thought so too, let's talk a little more about the relationship between hungary and the european union. the biggest question i have is why prime minister orbán is fighting so intensely with the eu leadership, what does he want to achieve with this? in hungary, there are problems related to the rule of law, because of this , several billion euros of eu financial support for hungary have been frozen, so budapest does not have access to them. my assessment is that hungary's interest is to normalize relations

with the european union, solve problems related to the rule of law, and at the same time ensure that eu funds are blocked. this is what the new polish government immediately did, after which the european commission immediately reacted and began to direct previously suspended funds to poland. hungary clearly follows a different approach, the highly confrontational policies pursued by orbán seem to serve almost exclusively domestic politics interests in the area of ​​rule of law , the european union requires hungary to dismantle some key institutional components of the orbán regime: control over mass media, suppression of civil society, influence on the judicial system, and some other things. without these changes

, hungary will not have access to frozen eu assets. viktor orbán needs to choose between the security interests of his regime and the financial interests of the country, because they are in conflict with each other. as in every authoritarian system, he chooses interests security of his own regime, because if orbán decides to comply with the eu's demands, it will mean that he himself will need to deconstruct the key elements of the regime that guarantee his own power. it is very unlikely that he will go for that, so instead he chooses open confrontation and tries to create a situation where domestically, for a domestic audience, he can try to present the whole story as hungary not getting eu money because of the eu's fault the eu hates hungary because the eu discriminates against hungary, for example

due to the fact that hungary pursues a certain peace policy that is contrary to the interests of the eu. so, this is mostly an internal political game. there is also an element of opacity here. the hungarian government believes less and less in the possibility of receiving this money from the european union. there is an opinion that this money is essentially lost. and when they no longer expect to get that money back, they can afford it. to continue the confrontation because they have nothing to lose. i am quite pessimistic, unfortunately, i expect that this confrontational relationship between orbán and the european union will continue, and hungary's presidency of the eu will not help this much.

mr. rats, let's talk a little bit about the hungarian minority in ukraine, in the zakarpattia region, especially in the berehiv district, there are quite a lot of ethnic hungarians living there, and prime minister orbán always says that he is going to protect this minority and will do everything possible for this , what can he do to protect the minority? and is he just saying this to push his political agenda?

dozens of them have already died, the exact number classified, but it is quite large. so, there are ethnic hungarians who are actively fighting for ukraine. if hungary really cared about the fate of the hungarian minority in zakarpattia oblast, it would be interested in helping ukraine as much as possible, in order to help the hungarian minority in order to help ukraine win. moreover, imagine the situation that could develop in the first weeks of a full-scale invasion, imagine that

ukraine would then suffer a serious defeat. does anyone seriously believe that if russia dominated ukraine, if ukraine were there a russian puppet government, something like yanukovych, number two, that would be good for the hungarian ethnic minority. does anyone seriously think that russia would not suppress all ethnic minorities belonging to eu and nato countries. no one will say so, and yet budapest refrained from providing military aid. more so in conditional issues, educational rights in what was.

nevertheless, for several years , there was no noticeable constructive approach from the hungarian and ukrainian sides. the government of budapest showed no readiness solve problems. thus, for several years in bilateral. there was a stalemate in relations, which was also harmful for the ethnic hungarians of the transcarpathian region. we hope that the recent meeting between president zelenskyi and prime minister viktor orban in kyiv will change something. this meeting has been planned for years. orbán has been constantly invited by president zelenskyi for many years, and now the two leaders have met in person. we hope that this will become a catalyst for bilateral normalization relations recently, there have been certain gestures, both

from the hungarian side and from the ukrainian side, when it comes to technical details regarding languages, educational systems, educational rights, cultural rights and all these things. in the long term, i am optimistic, also because after this meeting, the head of the transcarpathian region, viktor mykyta, announced that there is a plan to organize ukrainian-hungarian business. forum to discuss hungary's contribution to the recovery of ukraine and hungarian investments. and when money is on the table, it usually has a deterrent influence on the discussion. when we talk about the economy, when we talk about money, it's always a more rational thing than when we talk about more symbolic political issues. despite the fact that oroban's visit to moscow obviously came as a surprise for kyiv, the ukrainian reaction was very restrained and measured. this again is some indication that there is a chance for the relationship to improve, despite the fact that several years have been lost. hopefully the future will

look a little better. and one more thing: the meeting between zelenskyi and orban was organized literally in 5 days. organizing a meeting of such a high level, in such a short time, is possible only when both parties really want to. for it to take place, in this case both sides really wanted the meeting to take place, and this is again a good sign that ukraine and hungary are now ready to overcome some difficult issues and move forward. my last question to you, mr. ratz, will be about what i would call the orbán trump tandem. hungarian prime minister viktor orbán constantly praises the potential future president of the united states, donald trump. and donald trump speaks well of

orbán. two weeks ago, during his visit to the nato summit in washington, orbán even visited florida and met with donald trump in maralago. how dangerous could this tandem be if donald trump wins the election in november? this expression is actually a tandem. interesting, by calling them a tandem we're indicating that they're of equal power, but that's not exactly the case, but okay, let's call them a tandem, whatever you want to call them, it's kind of like a one-sided love, or something like that, i don't really fine on the soap bars, but i'm

sure we're with...

this is a classic strategy for how countries feel about the current presidential race. you have good relations with both sides and delegate highly trained professional diplomats as ambassadors, such as ambassador markarov from the ukrainian side or ambassador takacs from the hungarian side. however , hungary fully supports the republicans this time, which is very unusual. if trump wins, budapest won't get much, not worth it... hungary's importance to trump. except moreover, hungary's close relationship with china will be a problem for the incoming trump administration. i consider it a serious problem. even hungary's close relations with russia will not necessarily be beneficial. so, even if trump wins, even if the hungarian bid wins, i'm not sure that it can bring any strategic benefits to hungary. meanwhile, if

a democratic president leaves the race. hungarian-american relations will further deteriorate. of course, i said this would be the last question, but if you don't mind, i'll ask one more. how strong is viktor orbán's position in hungary, and how long is he going to remain the prime minister of this country. at the very least, the next parliamentary elections are scheduled for 2026, so if mr. orbán is healthy and continues to serve as prime minister, there is no scenario in which he could lose power by 2026. what will happen in 2026, well, the parliamentary elections are still a long way off. thank you very much mr. ratz for joining us today and thank you very much for your answers, i really appreciate it. it was

andra shratz, a hungarian security analyst, an expert of the german council on international relations, as well as a lecturer at corvin university, talked to him about serious issues, in particular about hungary, about its leader viktor orbán, as well as about such sensitive hungarian-ukrainian relations, so what further, the conversation was interesting, the answers were interesting, i think you will like it, well, that's it... i'll say goodbye to you, my name is yuriy fizar, see you, there are discounts until independence day on eurofast softcaps 10% webta.