that he immediately has to start with what raisi ended, that is, to talk about the need for a tough policy, a response, a fight against israel, a fight against america, that is, in fact , the iranian elite took advantage of a lot of things to immediately put the new president in the place that he the fir tree is taken away, israel here, by the way, played well with him in this. if we talk about gania, then gania arrived in qatar. they are also burying him in qatar, he came from qatar and they are burying him there, in qatar obviously israel would not want to do this, because it would not to spoil relations with the arab countries, but to be honest, ghannia has already got many, like hamas himself, and the saudis, and the emiratis, and the qataris, for many this situation in the gas sector, well, relatively speaking, is a big problem that they want to end, and with on the one hand, israel continues negotiations. not agreeing to

the terms of hamas, even today the delegation again arrived in cairo for negotiations, that is, hamas, which is very interesting, did not leave the negotiations completely, and if from a position of strength it would be worth doing it, well, how do you kill our leader, and here i will discuss all this with you, that is, we see that even recently israel has conducted many successful operations, that is, when netanyahu announced that hamas will be destroyed as an organization, many people expressed doubts about this, well, they say until the end... it will not be possible to destroy, somewhere there will be some appeasement. nevertheless, netanyahu pursues this policy not without the help, of course, of his western partners. it is difficult to predict what will happen next, but obviously now the situation will shift a little from the gas sector to lebanon, because taking into account the latest reports and the iranian response, it will be through lebanon, and there are already calls. to the citizens to leave

beirut, well, the north of israel as well, an equally huge evacuation of the population was carried out and continues to be carried out, and that is, this confirms the predictions expressed by some analysts that a huge, large-scale conflict with lebanon is being prepared for the fall, when israel managed to weaken hamas in many ways in the gaza sector, to defuse the situation there, then now is the time to give a proper response to hizbullah. was also preparing for this conflict, that is, we can wait for the opening of the second front, although whether the hostilities there will reach the scale of 2006 with such full-fledged airstrikes in the south of lebanon, well, that is also a question, although in the future, if not in the next month, then in the year, i think this can be expected, because without removing the threat from khizbula, well, talk about some kind of security in israel.

it is hardly possible, and even more so, strikes on lebanon, they will be perceived very differently than strikes on the gas sector, even with the arab public, because the hands of hezbollah, it does not have so many supporters in the arab countries, how much did hamas have, because hamas is such a sunni movement that was associated with the muslim brothers, here it came out that the palestinians, the indigenous population of the region, who are resisting the occupation, that is, the narrative looked... relatively attractive, immediately some iranian advisers, shiites, fanatics who came to lebanon, deceived the locals, it is not clear why they are attacking israel, that is, from the point of view of, for example, saudi arabia or the united arab emirates, in principle, hizbullah can be calmly merged and nothing special there will be no protest, even if we talk about north africa and those countries in the same way, so in principle. such a moment has come, again

the question is how israel's allies will react, specifically joe biden, who is now withdrawing from affairs, we can see this, because trump had a declaratively more anti-iranian policy, and he is now demonstrating that he said, if he were then hamas would not have attacked, well, these are well-known propagandist theses, and somewhere the israelis are also waiting in plain view of the american elections, in this case, even when we see... biden withdrew from elections and the arrival of trump conditionally became more realistic on the horizon, and netanyahu is his supporter, then israel significantly, so to speak, stepped on the gas and began to conduct some more successful operations in yemen and lebanon, well, obviously, having secured the support of some american circles, and we see that it gave a new signal for the possibility of escalation, well, i'll drag it out. the question of the return of the hostages

for an indefinite period, because as we can see, netanyahu does not agree to the terms of hamas, this is approximately the situation now . regarding the definition of escalation, it seems that before, before this powerful blow, joseph biden called on netanyahu to be more careful, to stop the escalation, and it could even be about limiting the help from the united states in case the israeli leader does not listen to these very subtle but important advices. at the same time, the un secretary general considers the elimination of pro-iranian partisans in beirut and tehran as a dangerous escalation. it is interesting. well, in addition, i don't know if our viewers and listeners noticed this,

but on july 30 at the inauguration of the new president a rather high-ranking diplomat from europe was also present in iran. the mission sent its representative there, and in fact, many people were a little surprised by this, but is this normal in this situation, according to the spokesperson of the european commission, peter stano, we actually need to adhere to the policy of critical interaction, mr. mykhailo, is this situation normal, or in principle we just see and observe certain...ceremonial things, i think that from the point of view of the european union it is quite normal, even this last exchange, when putinsky was returned from germany killer, in principle it is calm, although germany could react in the same way to the murder of even another citizen by a russian killer, as

iran is now trying to react, it is basically the same situation, but the person was deported, and it turned out that it is possible, so when we hear, what's up... dialogue with russia is impossible, it's a terrorist state, there can't be any negotiations and so on, well , things like that, they also put the narrative into question, because there is a real policy and a rational calculation. if we talk about iran, then diplomatic relations with the iranians are maintained. er, for example, the biden administration lifted some of the restrictions introduced by trump. for example, trump did not let iranians into the united states at all, he did not even grant visas to scientists. i actually am. i have colleagues who could not leave iran due to such events, despite the fact that people are allegedly not connected to the regime, but we also see the european union, he still believes that there may be some kind of agreement in the future about that

iran still does not make nuclear weapons, but we buy cheaper oil, and iran is constantly on this is speculating, and the european union does not want iran to finally slide to such a state. a satellite shared between china and russia, and the iranians themselves do not want this, they have a very long history of dialogue with israel, and from the west. we can recall the events 7-8 years ago, when iran dispatched its military to fight against isis, which, by the way, the europeans encouraged in every possible way, and in fact, when, for example, mosul and the north of iraq were liberated from isis, there were a lot of iranian soldiers there , and bombard. conducted from the north americans and members of the coalition, in fact, they were allies, which led to the preservation of bashar assad's regime, and many such issues, by the way, are related to iraq, in general, iraq is trying to balance successfully between the west and iran, that is, these relations, according to

the european diplomacy, they did not cross red lines, even, let's take the issue of the supply of iranian weapons to russia, well, except for these martyrs, who are already being released... russia itself is repenting, well, in principle, iran throws something up there from time to time, but it is not weapons of the level of ballistic missiles. also, for example, the russians produce many of their weapons using israeli technologies and others, and no one says that israel supplies russia with weapons. therefore, the issue here with iran and sanctions is very ambiguous, and unfortunately, european diplomacy here in many respects demonstrates the same... the same amorphousness as it demonstrates even in the issues of the russian invasion of ukraine, so here we europeans still believe that it will be possible to negotiate with iran very calmly and easily, and this agreement with iran is future, it is even more realistic than

there is an agreement with russia, because iran still, well, formally, as long as it did not attack anyone, directly only worked through a proxy, and the israeli attack was successful and... the attack on israel was successfully repelled and resembled, to be honest, enough well, such, you know, a controversial display, rather than a real blow. mr. mykhailo, thank you for this quality. analytics for our viewers and listeners mykhailo yakubovych, orientalist, candidate of historical sciences, researcher at the oriental studies department of the university of freiburg in germany, joined the the saturday political club, in which vitaly portnikov, whom we all look forward to, will appear in a few minutes, wait. vasyl zima's big broadcast. my name is vasyl zima, i am a big star on the espresso tv channel. two hours of airtime, two hours of your time. my colleagues and i will speak. about the most important thing, two hours to learn about the war, about the military, front, component, serhiy

zgurets, and what the world is about. yuriy fizar is already with me, and it's time to talk about what happened outside of ukraine. yury, good evening, two hours to catch up on economic news, time to talk about wartime money. oleksandr morchyvka field with me, and sports news. i invite yevhen pastukhov to the conversation. two hours in the company of your favorite presenters. cultural news, alena chechenina, our art watcher, is ready to tell, good evening. leading that many. about the weather for this weekend, as well as distinguished guests of the studio, mustafa dzhemiliv, the leader of the crimean tatar people is in touch with us, mr. mustafa, i congratulate you, good day, events of the day in two hours, vasyl zima's big broadcast, a project for smart and caring people, in the evening at espresso, this is the saturday political club, my name is khrystyna yatskiv and in the future we have... more than an hour to enjoy and analyze, critically analyze the latest events, and i

i am already happy to welcome vitaly portnikov, without whom this program cannot be imagined, in connection with our kyiv studio. i congratulate you, mr. vitaly. greetings, ms. khrystyna, long time no see, very mutual, long time no see, and i am glad to be with you again in the same context ethereal i wanted to start with you on the subject of the great exchange of prisoners. i would like to remind the audience that russia and belarus on the one hand, the united states, germany, slovenia and great britain on the other, carried out a prisoner exchange, and this is an extremely large-scale event, which is already growing with certain analytics, but it is just now in the minds ukrainians is also met with a certain, quite understandable criticism, we will talk about it a little later. to you, mr. vitaly, the main question is: why this exchange right now? putin, and why does he, on the other hand, represent the united states

joseph biden, and the democrats? well, i think that putin has had one goal for a long time, quite important, and that is the release of krasikov, a man who is known for his murder right in berlin in terganter park dashvili, a georgian citizen of chechen origin, this is a well-known story of political assassination. and this particular story, of course , always interested putin, because we already know that for him krasikov is a personal acquaintance, this is a person who carried out some special confidential assignments, it is important, not only putin, maybe all this the so-called ozer cooperative, and in addition to this murder of khongashvili, krasykov is known for the fact that he is involved in the murder of several russian businessmen in the northwestern region of russia. and this is a person who served in the federal security of the russian federation, and before that in the kgb, that is

, he is simply a person from the same corporation as putin, close to putin personally, i even believe that he was once his bodyguard during the st. petersburg period of putin's activities, when putin was the vice-mayor of st. petersburg, and of course in in this situation, it was very important for putin to show that people who carry out such his orders cannot remain in prison, especially since in the case of krasyuk it was a question of life imprisonment. and by the way, i want to remind you that putin personally came to the airport to meet these people who were released, he hugged krasikov and told him: great, and by and large, after but krasikov, this was the second such russian prisoner in western prisoners, and it was very important for putin to make sure that he came out on freedom, but there was such a problem that krasikov was in germany, germany does not often go to such an exchange. so putin needed the united states to be interested in releasing its

citizens, for those united states citizens to be an important target of the american administration, for the american administration to cooperate with the german government to release krasikov, that was such an important point, you know that the russians started simply taking american citizens hostage, this is how our colleague from... citizenship, a former marine, our colleague from radio liberty, and here, now let's look at american interests, it was very important for joseph biden to release these people during his presidency, because the biggest nightmare of any american president is that happened with jimmy carter.

in the last period of his term, jimmy carter conducted negotiations with iran on the release of american diplomats who were then in favor of the american and iranian leadership in tehran, and he carried out practically all the work on this exchange, his administration succeeded, but then in november, as always happens in the united states, jimmy carter lost the election to ronald reagan, and the iranians released these people on the day of ronald reagan's inauguration. and biden, of course, wanted to prevent such a situation in any case. firstly, so that it happens during his term of office, secondly, so that it does not happen, you know, that he did all the work, and then trump won the election, suddenly, and on the day of trump's inauguration, his new celebration takes place, putin releases american citizens, and crump say, you see, i became the president and everything began to be resolved even

more, even if it happened after november, when crump would say: " not even my inauguration." i... russia is afraid of us, that is, it had to happen by november, it is a very important moment, it is a moment of american interest. now the moment of german interest. germany was very reluctant to release krasikawa. we see it, it even caused an outpouring of emotions in the german media. so what was needed by the federal government to the chancellor that he is not... just freeing american citizens in exchange for a handsome man, but that he is freeing german citizens, and putin just went to take the germans hostage, even lukashenko was involved in this adventure, you know that lukashenko, just a few weeks before, there was

a death sentence to a german citizen, no one at all understands what this person really did, and lukashenko pardoned this person. after the death sentence, this is not even a life sentence for you, imprisonment, i'm sorry, and of course, germany was it is important that it has a humanitarian context, that is, the head of the german ministry of foreign affairs, annalin burbeck, you know, she is a representative of the green party, she was categorically against the release of the karas and believed that it would be a disaster, morally, and olaf scholz and antony blinken and everyone else convinced her that it wasn't. people's lives are more important than such things that let krasikov sit in russia, but the main thing is that we free american citizens, and your citizens, german citizens, but one more important humanitarian component has been added, it is russian political prisoners, and even more so, in principle, the west believed that if you replace, say, krasikov with navalny, germany will not have any

special... issues at all, because you know that angela merkel personally took care of navalny's fate after his poisoning , he was treated in sharite, and if this had happened, you see, krasikov was released, and along with it, american citizens navalny, several more russian politicians, then this would not have caused any indignation of public opinion, and they believed that putin was even ready to is to leave, there is information about him... roman abramovich was speaking, putin seemed to be interested in this, but just a few days before this exchange, navalny died, that is , it was such a cynical game that we had already agreed on the exchange, in principle, we decided who and what, but navalny died, and the exchange postponed for several months, because then they

started thinking again, and who can be included in this exchange so that this exchange has a humanitarian character? they included these russian rights activists, by the way, i don’t understand why they didn’t include belarusians, if there was a person who was wronged by lukashenko, a nobel laureate laureate ales biletsky, let's say, is in prison, who received the nobel prize together with our oleksandra mitveichuk and her organization, well, many in belarus after 20 years are political prisoners, maybe someone should have been included as well, well, this ... this is a rhetorical question, it's just me measuring myself, well, that means all these interests converged, because germany was interested in the fact that there would still be such a humanitarian moment as liberation from russian prisons, if navalny is no more, well, there are several iconic russians political prisoners who spoke against

putin's regime and against the war, you know that yashin left simply according to the war article, and there are still several people who left precisely because they condemned russia's war against ukraine, kara morza has more a serious charge, he has high treason, 25 years, it seems, something like that, but here are other people, they went about what just fakes about the army and so on, so on, oleg orlov, the chairman of the board of the now banned memorial, so in this regard, it was also important for the germans to demonstrate that they were freeing from russian prisons of people who protested against putin's war of aggression against ukraine, well, here is also an important moment and several people from fbk immediately from this navalny fund, well, there is no navalny, but we at least... there is an opportunity to get freedom for his associates from regions of russia, well, this approach, if it is logical, it is clear what happened, mr.

vitaly, if i understood you correctly, then there is a possibility that alexei navalny, well, let's say, could have died in connection with this exchange , assuming, of course, i believe that he died in connection with this exchange, that they simply laughed at the event, ugh, and as for the release, please, so, so, so, that krasikov will be released, but at the same time they will not give navalny's symbol, but at the same time, they will not hand over navalny, of course, this was their main idea, that in principle the parameters of the exchange are clear, this exchange will take place at all, because biden is interested in it, the americans must be released, but without navalny, well, it was so cynical, cruel of them very game, on the other hand, i you always spoke and for... i will say that i do not understand the logic of people at all, i will never be convinced by it, who go to pretrial detention, and

then, realizing that they will be sent to prison, and then they will have to pay for them to give, let's say, all these russian thugs, well, navalny returned to russia from we remember this after the poisoning, what he was counting on, they also tried to triple karamurza several times, in the end they gave him 25 years, the situation with yashen is also strange, because he says that he would generally like to return to russia and to continue his activities there, but he will not return, because he understands that then there will be no exchanges, he would like people to be released in the future and... i never understood this and i do not understand, they say that this is courage, but it seems to me that this is just a misunderstanding of the situation, that these people have invented some kind of country that does not exist, and

will not exist in their lifetime, and they just fall into the trap of the russian regime, uh, i don't know if you read or watched , once upon a time, there was a similar situation in my 20s it seems years of our century. with the famous russian politician boris savink, who was a famous terrorist during the empire, and then, when the soviet union had already appeared, and the whites lost the elections, he was a buser, that is , a socialist, a revolutionary, he created a fairly influential opposition organization, and he was ready precisely to the armed struggle, and as you understand, he knew what the armed struggle was, because... a terrorist, the head of a combat organization. mr. vitaly, we lost the sound with you, we still can't hear, unfortunately, but

now, now, yes, yes, there was a whole the story of savinkov, well, in soviet times, people who watched soviet films, they remember how savinkov was lured into soviet russia, lured into soviet russia. russia illegally, people who were agents of the nkvd announced that they, the opposition associates of savinkov, he came, believed that he would have great success, and in the end there was a show trial of tsavinkov, whom he told that he agreed with the soviet authorities , and then he seems to have ended his life by suicide in the building of the ogpu. well, we understand that he was simply killed, and he understands when, yes, mr. vitaly, i am again asking you to fix the microphone or do something with

the sound. for us and the audience , every word of yours is extremely important, and when, when there was such a situation with sarenko, when i think of savinkov, i think of navalny, of yashin, of karamurza, i think that it is approximately the same situation, tavinkov absolutely did not understand russia, the russia that appeared, and he was sure that he understood, because... he lived in russia all his life, he was engaged in revolutionary activities there, he was the commissar of petrograd in the times of the interim government, how could he think that the country in which he spent so much time has changed so literally in 6-7 years that it is a completely different country, and putin's russia, it is from 2014, and even more so after 2022 -th,

changed beyond recognition. it so often happens when the regime goes from authoritarian to totalitarian, there, by the way, sayink was already killed after the death of lemin, ugh, this was an important rubicon for the soviet union, and for the capabilities of the nkvd forces of all these, so i think that here there is such a problem that they they don't really understand the country in which they live, they talk about some political activity, so they should go back to prisons, set an example, or not? there is nothing, you understand, that is, their influence on real russia is not really what they have in their heads, but in reality it is zero, and it turns out that when they return to russia, or do not leave russia before the threat of a court sentence, they not only are shortening lives, they are actually still creating opportunities for russia to hold them hostage, duh. and

then real spies were exchanged for them. you understand, when a person goes to prison because he does not even imagine that he can become a victim of such and such repressions, this can be understood, the head of the orlov memorial, like him, engaged in public activities that were, as it were, completely legal, here suddenly they found some article when he once wrote, you know, and put him in prison for discrediting the army. it is difficult to predict very much, because the conditions of the game change every day, or our colleague from radio liberty, she just came there to her mother, she was leaving russia, and here and in kazan they say, oh, you have american citizenship, you did not register, you will be fined, oh, but you should actually register as her agent, oh, and we saw that you edited some book, and it's all month by month, that is, at first the person doesn't even think that his positions

were detained there, so he has to pay a fine. and fly further, no, but this is a different situation, on the other hand, of course, the question is how correct it is to come to russia in general, if you work for an organization that, in fact, everyone hate, but that's another story, it's hard to predict to the end, especially when you're not in the con context, but when you live there and sincerely believe that your landing will become some kind of important element in the political process, then again it says that that you understand little about what is happening. with you, this is a huge problem for all these people and i noticed it a long time ago, to be honest, they have moved after all, maybe they have always lived in this quite and real world, because they do not know their population, that's when i heard at their first press conference, khrystyna, that sanctions should be lifted so that ordinary russians don't feel bad, oh, you and i got to this issue, the ukrainians of course exploded, and the semi... a figure from

khodorkovsky's orbit, in fact, and volodymyr karamorza, in principle, with one voice, all of them with one voice, began to say that the sanctions in the form in which they currently exist hit ordinary russians, and in no way cause any specific damage to the regime there, this, this is an additional evidence of their lack of understanding of what exactly the russians mostly created this regime, and they endow everything... industry, you know, the bombing of german cities in order to destroy the german military , they kill ordinary germans, who are actually very negative now.