in ochamchir, where the russians plan to build a huge naval port that will be protected from attacks by ukrainian naval drones. dictator putin's main ambition is to demonstrate the ability of the russian navy to counter the combined fleet of the united states and its allies, primarily in the pacific region. it is where russia has its two biggest allies: china and north korea. by the way, recently the russian and chinese fleets held a joint naval parade in st. petersburg, and also participated in joint patrols off the coast of the philippines, which is the united states' largest ally in the region after japan and south korea. this program was conducted for you by me, major of the armed forces of ukraine, taras berezovyts. thank you for watching, together

to victory and glory to ukraine. we continue the saturday political club, don't worry, in the near future you will be expecting an analyst from vitaly portnikov, who will join very soon, but for now we have the opportunity to talk with experts about those events that can change the situation in individual regions on the world map, a little more detail about the middle east in the next few minutes. let me remind you that in ira'. these days it was restless, well

, first of all, because literally on july 30 , he took the oath there after the early presidential elections, after the death of the previous president, raisi masud pezeshkiyan, and in the context of these events, ceremonial events, something unexpected happened, although for whom, exactly israel reached out to... bent and quite effectively to one of the political leaders of the terrorist hamas, hamas, net which is now and still based in the gaza strip, and that is why the israel defense forces operation in this sector continues, in particular to free its own hostages. mykhailo yakubovych, orientalist, candidate of historical sciences, researcher at the oriental studies department of the university of freiburg, is in touch with us. in

germany. mr. mykhailo, i congratulate you. glory to ukraine. glory to heroes. good evening. a clear precedent, the destruction of the leader of hamas in tehran. and, this is a very point elimination that israel succeeded. the first question is which asks, in particular, an ordinary person, how it will affect the effectiveness of the terrorist group hamas in general. well , first of all, israel did not directly take responsibility for this action, although whether only israel was there, or whether other parties did not help, is a question. here, by the way, it happened at the time when hannia came to the inauguration of the new president of iran, which is also quite interesting, by the way, because some iranian circles positioned him as such a reformer, a person who would enter into a dialogue with the west, and ... they actually put themselves here

the new iranian president to such a status that he immediately has to start with what raisi finished, that is, to talk about the need for a tough policy, the answer to the fight against israel, the fight against america, that is , in fact, the iranian elite took advantage of a lot of things to immediately put the new president to the place allotted to him by the yatola, israel is here, by the way, not bad for him... he played a role in this, if we talk about gania, then gania arrived in qatar and they are also burying him in qatar, he arrived from qatar and they are hiding him there, in qatar, obviously, israel would not want to do this, as it would not want to spoil relations with arab countries, but to be honest, ghannia has already caught many, like hamas himself, and the saudis, and the emiratis, and the qataris, for many this situation in the gas sector, relatively speaking, there is a big problem that we want to finish. and on the one hand, israel

continues the negotiations, not agreeing to the terms of hamas, even today the delegation again arrived in cairo for negotiations, that is, hamas, which is very interesting, did not leave. absolutely with negotiations, and if from a position of strength it would be worth doing it, well, how can you kill our leader and negotiate with you here, that is , we see that even the other day, israel conducted many successful operations, that is, when netanyahu declared that hamas would be destroyed as organization, many people expressed doubts about it, well, they say that it will not be possible to completely destroy it, there will be some zamerilovka somewhere, after all, netanyahu is not without help, it is clear that his western... partners are conducting this policy, it is difficult to predict what will happen next, but obviously now the situation will shift a little from the gas sector to lebanon, because taking into account the latest reports, the iranian response

will be through lebanon, and there are already calls for citizens to leave beirut, well, the north of israel, as well as a huge evacuation of the population was and is being carried out yes. and that is, this confirms the forecasts expressed by some analysts that a huge, large-scale conflict with lebanon is being prepared for the fall, when israel managed to weaken hamas in many ways in the gaza sector, to derail the situation there, then now it is time to give an appropriate response to hezbollah. hizbullah is also preparing for this conflict, that is, we can wait for the opening of the second front, even if the hostilities reach it. and there , on the scale of 2006 with such full-scale airstrikes in the south of lebanon, well, that is also a question, although in the future, if not in the next month, then in the year, i think, this can be fully expected, because without removing the threat from hezbollah, well, talk about some security in

israel is hardly possible, and even more so, strikes on lebanon, they will be perceived completely differently than strikes. in the gas sector, even in arabic with the public, because the hands of hezbollah, it does not have as many supporters in the arab countries as hamas did, because hamas is such a sunni movement that was associated with the muslim brothers, here it came out that well, the palestinians, the indigenous population of the region, which is resisting the occupation, that is , the narrative looked relatively attractive, here are the siran advisors, the fanatical shiites who rushed to lebanon. er, they deceived the locals, it is not clear why they are attacking israel, that is , from the point of view of, for example, saudi arabia or the united arab emirates, in principle hizbullah can be quietly merged, and there will be no special protest, even if we talk about north africa and those countries in

the same way, so in principle such a moment has come, again the question is how israel's allies will react , specifically joe biden, who... is now withdrawing from business, we can see this, because trump had a declaratively more anti-iranian policy, and he is now demonstrating that he says, if he had been, hamas would not have attacked, well that such propaganda theses are known, er, and somewhere the israelis are also obviously waiting for the american election, in this case, even as we see biden withdraw from the election and the coming of trump has tentatively become more realistic on the horizon, and netanyahu is his supporter. then israel significantly, well, so to speak, stepped on the gas and began to carry out some operations in yemen and in lebanon more successfully, well, obviously having secured the support of some american circles, and we see that this

gave a new signal for the possibility of escalation, well, and delayed the issue return of hostages for an indefinite period, because as we can see, netanyahu still does not agree with... on the terms of hamas, this is roughly how the situation is now. regarding the definition of escalation, it seems that before, before this powerful blow, joseph biden called on netanyahu to be more careful, to stop the escalation, and it could even be about limiting the aid from the united states in the attack, if the israeli leader does not listen. to these very subtle but sure tips. at the same time, the un secretary-general considers the elimination of pro-iranian partisans in beirut and tehran, as a dangerous escalation, it is interesting. well, in addition, i

don't know if our viewers and listeners noticed it, but on july 30, the inauguration of the new president of iran was also attended by... a rather high-ranking diplomat from europe, the european commission sent its representative there, and actually many people were a little surprised by this . and is it normal in this situation, according to the spokesperson of the european commission , peter stano, we actually need to adhere to the policy of critical interaction, mr. mykhailo, or is this situation normal, or in principle, we simply see and observe certain ceremonial things? i think that from the point of view of the european union it is quite normal, even the last one... this exchange, when putin's killer was returned from germany, is calm in principle, although germany could

react in the same way to the murder of even another citizen by a russian killer, as iran is now trying to react , this is basically the same situation, but the person was deported, and it turned out that it is possible, so when we hear that dialogue with russia is impossible there, it a terrorist state, there can be no negotiations, and so on, well, they put a lot of emphasis on such things. question the narrative, because there is real politics and rational calculation. if we talk about iran, diplomatic relations with the iranians are maintained. for example, the biden administration has lifted some of the restrictions imposed by trump. for example, trump did not let iranians into the united states at all, he did not even grant visas to scientists. in fact, i have colleagues who could not leave iran because of such events, despite what is alleged people are not related to the regime, but... and the same way we see the european union, it still believes that there may be some kind of agreement in the future

that iran does not make nuclear weapons after all, and we buy cheaper oil , and iran constantly speculates on this, well , the european union does not want iran to finally slip to such a satellite shared between china and russia, and the iranians themselves do not want this, they have a very long history. dialogue with israel and the west, we can recall the events of 7 years ago, when iran dispatched its military to fight against isis, which, by the way, the europeans encouraged in every possible way, and in fact, when, for example, mosul and the north of iraq were liberated from isis, there were a lot of iranian troops there, and the bombing was carried out from the north by americans and members of the coalition, in fact they were allies, which led to the preservation. oppression of bashar assad and, by the way, there are many such questions about iraq, in general, iraq

is trying to balance successfully between the west and iran, that is, according to european diplomacy, these relations have not crossed the red line lines, even, let's take the issue of the supply of iranian weapons to russia, well, in addition to these shahids, which are already produced by russia itself, well, in principle, iran throws something in there from time to time, but it is not weapons of the ballistic level. also, for example, the russians produce many of their weapons using israeli technologies and others, and no one says that israel supplies russia with weapons. therefore , the issue here with iran with sanctions is very ambiguous, and unfortunately, european diplomacy here in many respects demonstrates the same amorphousness as it demonstrates even in the issues of the russian invasion of ukraine, so we are still europeans here. believe that it will be possible to come to an agreement with iran very calmly and easily, and this agreement with iran is future, it is even

more realistic than the agreement with russia, because iran still, well, formally, until it attacked no one, just worked by proxy, and the israeli attack was successful, the attack on israel was successfully repulsed and resembled, frankly, quite a, you know, controversial one. of movement rather than a real blow. mr. michael, thank you for this qualitative analytics for our viewers and listeners, mykhailo yakubovych, orientalist, candidate of historical sciences, researcher at the oriental studies department of the university of freiburg in germany, joined the saturday political club, in which vitaly portnikov, whom we all eagerly await, will appear in a few minutes, wait greetings, this is svoboda live on radio svoboda. we have already come to... the following shots may shock you. news from the scene. live kamikaze drone attacks.

political analytics. objectively and meaningfully. there is no political season. exclusive interviews, reports from the hottest points of the front. frankly and impartially. you draw your own conclusions. this is saturday's political club, my name is khrystyna yatskiv, and we have more than an hour to enjoy. and analyze, critically analyze the latest events, and i am already happy to welcome vitaly portnikov, without whom this program cannot be imagined, to our kyiv studio. i congratulate you, mr. vitaly. greetings, ms. khrystyna, long time no see, very mutual, long time no see saw each other, and i am glad to be with you again in the same ethereal context. i wanted to start with

you on the subject of the great exchange of prisoners. i will remind the audience that russia and belarus. on the one hand, the united states, germany, slovenia, and great britain, on the other hand, carried out a prisoner exchange, and this is an extremely large-scale event, which is already growing with a certain analysis, but, just now, in the minds of ukrainians, it also meets a certain, quite understandable criticism , we will talk about it a little later, to you, mr. vitaly, the main question is why this exchange right now to putin, and why is he with... on the other hand, the united states in the person of joseph biden, and the democrats. well, i think that putin has had one goal for quite a long time, quite important, and this is the release of krasikov, a person who is known for his murder right in berlin in terganter park, dashvili, a georgian

citizen of chechen origin, this is a well-known story with a political assassination, and so this story, of course, is always interesting to putin. because we already know that for him krasikov is a personal acquaintance, a person who was carrying out some special confidential assignments, maybe not only putin, maybe all of this so-called ozer cooperative, and in addition to this murder of hongadshvili, krasyk is known for being involved in the kidnapping of several russian businessmen to the north- west, in the north-west region of russia , and this is a person who served the federal. the same security of the russian federation, and before that in the kgb, that is, this is just a person from the same corporation with putin, close to putin personally, they even believe that he was his once a bodyguard in the st. petersburg period of putin's activities, when putin was still the vice-mayor of st. petersburg, and of course, in this situation it was very important for putin to show that people who carry out such orders of his cannot remain in prison, especially

since in the case of krasiuk, it was about life imprisonment, and by the way, i want to remind you that putin... personally came to the airport to meet these people who were released, he hugged krasiuk and told him well, and for by a large margin, after buta krasikov - it was the second such a russian prisoner in western prisons and it was very important for putin to make sure that he was released, but there was such a problem that krasikov was in germany, germany does not often go to such an exchange, so putin had to. it is necessary for the united states to be interested in releasing its citizens, for those united states citizens to be an important target of the american administration, for the american administration to cooperate with the german government in releasing krasikov, that was so important moment, you know that the russians just started

taking american citizens hostage, like our colleague from the wall street journal , evange. who was released in this exchange, others were known hostages of american citizenship, a former marine, our colleague from radio liberty, and here now let's look at the american interest, it was very important for joseph biden to release these people precisely during his presidency, because the biggest nightmare of any american president is what happened. jimmy carter. jimmy carter led in the last period of his term of office, negotiations with iran on the release of american diplomats, who were then held hostage by the american and iranian leadership in tehran. and he spent practically all the work on this exchange, his administration was successful. however, then in november, as always happens in the united states, jimmy carter

lost the election to ronald reagan. and the iranians released them. people on the day of ronald reagan's inauguration. and biden, of course, wanted to prevent such a situation in any case. one, to make it happen during his term, and two, to make sure it doesn't happen, you know, that he did all the work, and then trump won the election all of a sudden. and on the day of trump's inauguration , his new celebration takes place, putin releases american citizens, as trump says. you see, i became the president and everything started to be resolved, moreover, even if it happened after november, when trump spoke, there is not even my inauguration, russia is already afraid of us, that is, it had to happen. precisely until november, this is a very important moment, it is a moment of american interest, now a moment of german interest. germany

was very reluctant to release krasikawa, we can see it, it even caused an outpouring of emotions in the german media. it means that the federal chancellor needed that he not just release american citizens in exchange for beauty. and that he is freeing german citizens, and putin just went to take the germans hostage, even lukashenko joined this adventure, you know that lukashenko just a few weeks before that, was death sentence to a german citizen, in general no one understands what this person really did, and lukashenko pardoned this person after the death sentence, it's not even for you... a life sentence, imprisonment, i'm sorry, and of course, germany was it is important that it has a humanitarian context,

that is, the head of the german ministry of foreign affairs berbeck, you know, she is a representative of the green party, she was categorically against the release of kask and believed that it would be a disaster, morally, and olaf scholz and anthony blinken and all the others convinced her that no, people's lives were more important than. such things as let krasikov sit there in russia, but the main thing is that we release american citizens and your citizens, german citizens, but one more important humanitarian component was added, that is, russian political prisoners, and even more, in principle , the west considered that if you change, say, krasikov to navalny, then germany will not have any special issues at all, because you know that... "navalny's fate was taken care of by angela merkel personally, after his poisoning, his were treated in sharite, and if it happened like that,

you see, they release krasikov and along with it american citizens navalny, several more russian politicians, then this would not cause any indignation of public opinion, and they believed that putin is even ready to go for it, there is the information that roman abramovich talked to him about this, putin about this..." seemed to be interested, but just a few days before this exchange, navalny died, that is, it was such a cynical game that we had already agreed on the exchange, in principle, decided , who how, but but navalny died and the exchange was postponed for several months, because then they again began to think about who could be included in this exchange so that this exchange would have a humanitarian character, and these russians were included. law enforcement officers. by the way, i do not understand why belarusians were not included, if there was a person pardoned by lukashenko. nobel laureate ales biletsky, for example. so.

the person who received the nobel prize together with our oleksandra mitviychuk and her organization is in prison. well, there are many political prisoners in belarus after the 20th year, maybe someone at least had to be included. also, well, this is such a question. this is just me thinking about myself, well, that means all these interests converged, because germany was interested in the fact that there would still be such a humanitarian moment as liberation from russian prisons, if there is no longer novalny, well, several iconic russian political prisoners who spoke against putin's regime and against the war, you know that yashin left simply according to the war article, and there are still several people who left precisely because they... condemned russia's war against ukraine, in kara morse is more difficult there accusations, he has treason there, 25 years there, it seems that there is something like that, here, but there

are other people, they went about what just fakes about the army, such and such, such and such, oleg orlov, the chairman of the board of the now banned memorial, yes that in this regard it was also important for the germans to demonstrate that they were releasing protestors from russian prisons. against putin's war of aggression against ukraine, well, this is also an important point and several people from fbk, from this navalny fund, well, there is no navalny, but we at least give his associates from russian regions the opportunity to gain freedom, well , if such an approach is logical, it is clear what happened. mr. vitaly, if i understood you correctly, there is a possibility that oleksiy navalny, well, let's put it this way, could have died in connection with this matter. they just laughed at the event, huh, and as for that, they already understood that krasiakov

will be released, please. dad, that krasikawa will be released, but at the same time they will not give navalny's symbol, but at the same time they will not give navalny, of course, this was their the main idea is that, in principle, the parameters of the exchange are clear, this exchange will take place in general, because biden is interested in it, the americans must be released, but without navalny, well , it was such a cynical, cruel game of theirs, on the other hand, i always told you and now i say that i do not understand at all... the logic of people, i will never be convinced by this, who are going to be imprisoned for a long time, and then, realizing that they will be put in prison, and then they will have to pay for them, let's say all these russian bandits and spies, well navalny returned to russia from germany, we

remember this after the poisoning. what he was counting on, they also tried to triple karamurza several times, in the end they gave him 25 years, the situation with yashin is also strange, because he says that he would generally like to return to russia and continue his activities there, but he will not return, because he understands that then there will be no exchanges, he wanted people to be released in the future, and i never understood that and i don't understand that, they say that this is courage, but i think that it is just misunderstanding the situation, that these people have invented some kind of country that does not exist, and will not exist in their lifetime, and they simply fall into the trap of the russian regime, uh, i don't know if you read or watched, there was once a situation exactly like this in the 20s , it seems to me the years of our century with a well-known...

russian politician, boris savink, who was a famous terrorist during the empire, and then, when the soviet union had already appeared, and the whites lost the elections, he was an aser, that is, a socialist, a revolutionary, he created quite an influential opposition organization, and he was ready for armed struggle, and as you understand, he knew what armed struggle was, because he was a terrorist, the head of a militant organization. mr. vitaly, we lost the sound with you, we still can't hear, unfortunately, but now, now, yes, yes, there was a whole story with savink on the line, ugh, in soviet times, people who watched soviet films, they they remember how savinkov was lured to soviet russia, lured to soviet russia illegally. people who were

agents announced that they were oppositionists and associates of savinkov, he came, he believed that he would have great success, and in the end there was a show trial against tsavinkov, to whom he told that he agreed with the soviet authorities, and then he, as it were, ended his life by suicide in the house of the ogpu, well, we we understand that he was simply killed. yes, mr. vitaly, i ask you again to fix the microphone or do something with the sound? for us and the audience , every word of yours is extremely important, so and so when, when there was such a situation with sarenkov, when i mention salenkov, i think about navalny, about yashin, about karamurza. i

think it's about the same situation. starinkov absolutely did not understand russia, the russia that had appeared, and he was sure that he understood, because he had lived in russia all his life, he was engaged in revolutionary activities there, he was the commissar of petrograd during the time of the provisional government, as he could to think that the country in which he spent so much time has changed so literally in 6-7 years, that it is a different country altogether? and putin's russia, it has changed beyond recognition since 2014, and even more so after 2022, it is so it often happens when the regime goes from authoritarian to totalitarian there, by the way, sayink was already killed after lemin's death, ugh, this was an important rubicon for the soviet union, and for the capabilities of the forces.