to say that a certain breakthrough has already taken place, and the russian rear now becomes even more sensitive to our influence, clearly, a breakthrough has taken place, and a significant one, because let's say and remember the situation, two years ago we could only dream, i remember all the conversations , when russia started drone terror, added to the missile terror, which was started even earlier, and when in october 2022, shaheds began to fly over the territory of ukraine. then many people wondered: well, look, the shachet, it seems, is not such a complex high-tech weapon, we can also produce it, and since then, an active search for solutions to not just produce, to produce in such a way as to have an advantage over the enemy, and our attacks were more successful. forbes, by the way , noted that in july, ukraine was more successful in attacks on russian territory, in so-called deep strikes, than russia, and this...

is a really serious evolution, and this is really something that inspires hope and optimism , in fact, because it is necessary to understand that blows to the rear and on the territory of russia are what works, it has its effect, be it not instantaneous, be it not momentary, but it certainly has, and it forces the enemy to adjust their plans, and military components, to move their aircraft, to lose aircraft, to lose weapons. it forces them to look for alternative delivery routes, logistics, which does not always work, because they lose in other directions, it forces them to adjust their plans for gasoline prices, and for limiting the export of petroleum products, and so on, that is, all this has results, of course, and this also has negative, reputational and image results for russia, because when the world looks at how much russia is vulnerable, that's great. but it is clear

that in many ways this potential looks like just bayonet inflation, so actually speaking, this is a tactic that works, i think it will only increase, that is, the frequency of strikes in august will be even more than it was in july, in september even more than in august, this is how it will work, and it will definitely have an effect that will be extrapolated to the battlefield in the same way, and the task of striking russian airfields, oil refineries and logistics is one of the most effective means. to force russia into peace negotiations on ukraine's terms, the president of ukraine, volodymyr zelenskyi, declares this. that is, mr. oleksandr, i understand correctly, we are currently engaged in creating a suitable situation in which the russian federation has no other options but to stop and talk to us, correct? at the same time, we provide ourselves with a strong position in order for this position to be at peace summits. were held not just

in order to gather and condemn again russia, and in order for the world, which is gathering , those countries that are coming, to see that ukraine, including on the battlefield, and this is very important, because the war continues, and the front, and the situation at the front, the situation with dead strikes and so on, it has a direct reflection on everything that is happening, and in order to demonstrate to everyone who is watching, we also have a power component. which can guarantee us a strong position at the negotiating table, how does it work, let's take, for example, the situation with china, some negotiations, and china says: listen, you have to stop something, for example, stop operating there on the battlefield, then russia will do something, and we have to say: listen, well, if russia does not stop striking the ukrainian energy system, hitting children's hospitals with missiles, we will continue ... strikes on military facilities

on the territory of russia and we will only increase them, and this is already a strong position, and this is already what works, this is already what you can use to be on any russian map, therefore , of course, this argument, i always said that which, what position of the defense forces, the armed forces of ukraine will draw, which they will be able to to provide, including with the help of our partners, will be based on that. in the future and the ukrainian diplomatic position, these are absolutely inextricably linked things. thank you very much oleksandr musienko, director of the center for military and legal studies, was in touch with us for the new week project, thank you and once again, i remind you that today we are asking our viewers and listeners, do you think that the russian people are guilty in the war as well as putin? to me, this question sounds a bit rhetorical, but whatever we understand that people can think differently. and

your opinion is extremely important to us, it is absolutely priceless for us, so please, if you think that the russians are entirely to blame, as well as putin, then 0800 211 381, if yours... i emphasize again absolutely free, join. well, i am happy to welcome oleg penzyn, economist, executive director of the economic discussion club, to the studio. mr. oleg, i congratulate you, glory to ukraine. glory to the heroes, i am also very glad to see you. very mutually, wartime economy and innovations that we may not be able to avoid. the government says it is making compromises. with business on raising taxes, that's what they think, i'd like us to quote mr. hetmantsev now, the 1% military levy on legal entities, which is effectively a sales tax, will be removed from the government's

tax hike bill number 11416 and probably replaced value added tax, this was announced by the head of the specialized parliamentary committee, danylo hetmantsev, based on the results of the first consultations with business, regarding the first steps... the architecture of changes to the tax bill of the cabinet of ministers, offices are not yet fully understood, but i agree with business that a one percent turnover tax will not pass, and thank god, we definitely do not need a new complex tax. well, mr. oleg, what is new, the new rules of taxation, as far as it is, you know, an inevitable story as of now for the ukrainian economy, or perhaps it would be worth listening to the words of pena britzker, who noted that the country has other sources , possible revenues, in which we have not yet hands down, well, half a trillion money for security and defense is not enough, this is true,

for some reason it is very often mistakenly called the deficit of the state budget, no, we have a deficit of the state budget of 1.6 trillion, this is what we actually compensate with... at the expense of borrowings, macro-financial aid, in the 23rd year we received 42 billion dollars, this year 37.5, and that money goes entirely to the social payments owed by the state to its citizens, and there are also salaries of state employees, which are not related to security and defense, but you just need to understand that according to... the terms of providing macro-financial assistance, it cannot be used for war, so bright thoughts about the fact that let's reduce the salaries of civil servants and transfer those funds to the military will not pass simply because this salary is paid at the expense

of macro-financial assistance aid, that is, here, well, it will not pass, when you and i are talking about half a trillion, this is actually the money that the state should collect from the economy of ukraine, that is, not... borrow on foreign markets, actually from the economy of ukraine and from its citizens, well from literally, this is how it is, that is, we have written 1.7 trillion in the budget, and this money is not enough, it is not enough for several reasons: the first reason, well, at the beginning of this year, and marchenko spoke about this more than once, we did not have help from americans of military and technical, so part of the funds was transferred from the end of the year to the purchase of weapons. and ammunition, approximately 200 billion hryvnias, this money is already not enough, i.e. 200 billion times, well, listen, we understand with you that each one is mobilized, this 300 million from the budget every year, we are currently

increasing mobilization, if we want to mobilize an additional 100,000, conditionally, we need to have 135-130. hryvnias of additional funds from the state budget, that is, it must be understood that the deficit that we are talking about with you now is a deficit of actual expenses for security and defense, that is, i say again, they can only be taken from the economy, that is, there or you will take it from a legal business, screwing up taxes once again, again from a legal business it is very conditional, because if you and i look at all the things proposed by the government, these are taxes not on business, they are taxes on you and me, why? well, look, who is the final excise payer? well, who pays the excise tax? excise duty is paid by the final consumer, i.e. you buy fuel, you

pay excise duty, you buy alcohol, you pay excise duty, you buy tobacco, you pay excise duty, you have earned income and paid military levy from it. this is your payment, it is not a business payment, that is, all the innovations we are talking about now are money from those legal citizens of ukraine who already pay taxes by the way, the innovation regarding the increase of the value added tax of the so -called vat, it is already 100%, here no one will even have doubts, it is again a tax on you and me, it is paid by the end consumer, that is, will we have with you at the moment are the funds in order to additionally collect 130-140 billion hryvnias in the budget, because these are the innovations we are talking about now.

the ministry of finance plans to take the last funds that are needed in part from transfers of funds from servicing the state debt, you and i know that ukraine signed the restructuring of the debt, yes, and those 60 billion that were planned to be paid this year for debt service can be done. transfer to security and defense, that is, minus 60 from those half a trillion, well, the last from where you can borrow, take, in my opinion, this is a little too optimistic, because it is unlikely to be able to do it, at the expense of bonds of the internal state loan, at the expense of military bonds, why i say it's a little optimistic, see... this year the treasury every tuesday conducts auctions for the sale of ovdp bonds, and he

has, in fact, the 1.7 trillion that we talked about from the very beginning, he has the expected borrowings from bonds of the domestic state loan, as of july, he is not fulfilling the plan for raising bonds for raising funds through bonds was supposed to raise 320 for the month of july. i raised 280, 285 according to their reports, is the ministry of finance in a position to borrow 170 billion uah in addition to the plan, which is not being implemented anyway, well, i don’t know , there is a question, so how about me, so what ms. pritzker says, what the business is saying at the moment, what everyone is saying lately, it is in my... view extremely important, why? because you and i have a huge shadow economy,

40% of the ukrainian economy is shadow, that is, there are businesses that do not pay a single penny of taxes by definition, uh, well , consider that according to approximate estimates of economists, this the sums that the shadow economy does not add to the state budget is about an order of magnitude. 750-800 billion hryvnias per year, well, if we are talking about six months, well then count it at 400, 450, these are the funds that could fully cover the entire need for additional financing of defense security, but there, at least, it is necessary to start with the detinization of those state bodies that are actively working. in this direction, i.e. it is the customs, it is the state fiscal service, it is the restart

of the economic security bureau, i.e. we rest in principle on what the path would start from, in general, reforms with or without war, it is simply necessary to normalize in a good way the work of the relevant bodies, i understand correctly, look, all the years of independence of ukraine. years, every government, one, one of the slogans with which he started his work, said the fight against tinization, the reset of the customs and tax authorities, the most important thing in that situation, in the process of research, is not to expose ourselves, i apologize, ugh, what is the problem, the problem is that, unfortunately, i have a lot of pessimism about it . "i don't really believe that in a very short period of time we will suddenly manage

to break the paradigm in which ukraine existed all the years of independence, struggle counterfeiting, combating smuggling, combating fiscal bribers, well, i have extremely big doubts that it will be possible to do this in the next two months. it was a very good idea." to try to shed a little light on, well, at least not black, at least gray business, having introduced economic reservation, repeatedly raised it on the airwaves. problems, five draft laws are in the verkhovna rada, today, none of them have been considered in the session hall, even in the first reading, although theoretically, these bills are supported by business favorable positions of various kinds of business associations, so what, and nothing so far,

this could be an additional source, because when you and i talk about those taxes that are planned, well, listen, we can get absolutely the opposite reaction. of what well, imagine, 15% for the first registration, additionally, the first registration of cars when buying. ugh. well, we understand with you how a sincere ukrainian will get out of this situation. well, he won't go and buy legal cars from a legal business. he will lead them from abroad, he will look for them shadow schemes through the tax office, through customs. do we understand this or not? we understand the 5% military levy on the purchase of real estate, but our real estate is not subject to a lot of taxes anyway, well , what will a sincere ukrainian do, i’m sorry, he will understate the purchase price in order to avoid an increase, well, that is, we are a business instead of to bring it to light, with these

additional taxes we will stupidly drive it into the shadows, 30% for the purchase of jewelry. well, this doesn't mean that they will buy less of the wheelbarrow, right? this means that they will look for mechanisms that way to avoid this tax. that is, we, look, those 1.7 basic trills that are in the state budget, this is not real money, it is what we need to earn for legal business by the end of the year and with which to pay tax. these threats are not physically present, they still have to be earned. ugh. and there is in... a big caveat that by introducing additional tax innovations, you and i will not earn an additional 140 billion there, and we may not reach 1.7, uh, simply because business will begin to flee into the shadows, about it, by the way, in direct text different kinds of business associations are speaking, which

claim in a direct, well, format, that the proposed draft laws are not. no action is taken regarding the removal of a business that does not pay anything anyway, that is, all those innovations are tax innovations, they are innovations for the legal part of the ukrainian economy, the illegal part feels great. mr. olezh, you and i are actually talking about what ukraine can and should do to continue its confrontation with the russian federation, its defense of... the russian federation, but and the russians, i would like to believe, face at least some problems in the way of arming themselves, in the way of supporting their military industry, and so on. elvira nabiulina, head of the central bank of the russian federation, stated that the last reserves of the russian economy have been exhausted,

the reserves of labor and production capacity in the russian economy are practically exhausted, this is a game of rhetorical figures. eh, are there really certain problems, if there are problems, can they be solved with revenues from cooperation, energy cooperation with china, india and so on. in a word, do we not find ourselves in a situation where while the fat will rise, the thin will die, sorry. well, we were in that situation from the first day of the war, to be honest, and without the active help of our people. partners, we are really not fit to wage war, well, let's be absolutely sober, we borrow half of the state budget for social expenses, imagine that the president of ukraine, our government would have alternatives: give money to a soldier or give money to a pensioner, to whom to give money rather in order to save

or one or the other, thank god, at the moment on... our partners have removed a lot of responsibility for the social package from us, although, again, i will repeat it once again when you and i look at the budget declaration for the 25th-27th year, social standards are frozen there, that is , there will be no more money for increasing social standards, but in 2024, social standards were raised a little and slowed down even more, but god forbid that at least... if only those that are, would be financed by our partners, and as for the russians, listen, er, i always say what, what today is happening in the economy of the russian federation, very similar to the last... decades of the soviet union. i want to remind you that until the last day of its existence, the soviet union demonstrated economic growth at the level of 5-7%. it is true that

gdp was not mentioned there, it was national income, but this does not change the essence. however, this growth was provided by enterprises of the military-industrial complex, which were actively financed by money from the then budget of the soviet union. at the same time, consumer goods , primarily the economy, are not supplied the country with food, well, for sure, who remembers, who remembers, who does not, the soviet union was one of the largest importers of agricultural products, ugh, that is, without the import of canadian grain, canadian wheat, without... the import of american wheat , the soviet union could not feed its own population, and why? everything is very simple, because in order to ensure

the proper amount of production of agricultural products, and the agricultural sector is a sector with a sufficiently low level of mechanization and with a sufficiently large level manual labor, there should be an appropriate number of workers who should be properly paid, eh... also, so that you and i understand the situation in russia, the situation in russia at the moment is very similar. what does nabiolina say about the overheating of the russian economy, because the huge investment of money in contracts with the military-industrial complex has led to the fact that the military-industrial complex is now working as a huge vacuum cleaner that absorbs resources and labor, and material resources, and we have understand, that the material resources of the workforce in the country are, well, a certain amount, their size is not infinite, and if you have a sector that begins to distort like that, then all the last ones who do not

have such budgetary support, who do not have the opportunity to make those social packages, to raise those wages salary, physically begin to lose labor force, and the fact that today in many stores of the russian federation, especially given away. there is a real shortage of food products in the regions, this is already the first sign that russia is on the way of the soviet union, on the path of a total food shortage, if in terms of consumer goods, which somehow china can provide a shoulder, then in terms of food products, well, let's be completely frank, china itself is a large importer, it will be fed by more than a billion people. another confirmation of why the russian federation, ukrainian, in particular, territories, why it cracks further and further, and for this, too,

in order to steal our grain, export it in shady ways, then as you like, but yes, to do that, what they do and to feed their own mr. oleg, i thank you very much for this detailed answer to... an important question, oleg penzyn, economist, executive director of the economic discussion club, was in touch with us, now we will move on to the next question, but i would like to remind you that we today we are running a poll do you think the russian people are as guilty of the war as putin if you think so 0800 211 381 if not 0800 211 382 all your calls will be free and your... opinion is priceless for us, join, whatever thank you for this survey, why are we actually asking you about this, and because the released, in particular russian opposition politicians,

human rights activists, sang in one voice that the sanctions in the form in which they exist now, they beat exclusively for the common people of the russian federation, the sanctions actually affect the russian economy, it is another matter how much they have... or have nothing to cover this damage, and we are in touch, as promised, at the current hour oleksandr khara, an expert on foreign affairs and security policy of the center for defense strategies. sir oleksandr, i congratulate you, glory to ukraine. good evening, heroes of the word. with your permission, i will start with this big prisoner exchange, and many comments have already been made about it, but there is a rather small voice about what to expect. next exchanges, what it can be, why it is needed, both putin and the united states, i ask you to speak, well, first of all, it is clear

that... the president of the united states, and his vice president, who is, is almost a nominee from the democratic party, it definitely took effect that several americans were fired citizens, hostages whom putin took precisely in order to make this exchange. we know from open sources that the negotiations were held for almost two years, from the very beginning the same navalny appeared there, but he was, well... de facto killed in a russian prison, and in the end , so they agreed on such the composition that the americans receive, that is, in fact hostages, will instead give spies and murderers of the russian federation. and of course, such exchanges can continue, because the first and most important thing is that these are not the last hostages putin adopted, and this is a completely normal practice, and unfortunately, the americans simply

legalized it, because he used to say... that you cannot negotiate with terrorists and that , by and large, pressure should have been applied, but now we see that it has already become a certain norm, and it is clear that putin will continue to take hostages, because there are still people to be taken out of european and american prisons, actually accomplices in his regime, and this really adds to his image, because he does not abandon his own, i am not talking about so this is the meat that is thrown at our soldiers. in the war, i'm talking about caste, that is, the fsb, the kgb, all those chosen ones, this is a legacy that is untouchable and absolutely, well , let's say, in a pampered state. well, from the point of view of evaluating what they said, well, you know, the skepticism of the ukrainian people has long been such that we also know that with a scrap of russian you will find a chauvinist or a racist there,

for sure. phobos and what they have been saying will definitely not end this war, on the contrary, it will continue, because if the sanctions are lifted, it will mean more money for the actual mercenaries, in order to build rockets and so on, and of course it can undermine the will of our partners to further support ukraine. i'm not talking about the fact that these people are not. the real opposition, there aren't a lot of russians who are ready to follow them, because the way your polling is going now on whether all russians are guilty, i would say, they are not guilty, they are responsible, those who take part in the murder are guilty ukrainians, who support, all the rest, who are silent or who you know, are there only on the network

he gives some words of support for ukraine, they... are responsible, innocent russians, only those who fight on the side of ukraine, who inform on the armed forces of ukraine or russian units fighting against putin, who absolutely clearly stated their position can be considered russians about the fact that this is an aggression, that putin is to blame, that russia is to blame, that the russians are part of this war, and not only putin's war, so you know, we must have looked at this whole action like that, and forgot. because in principle they were not addressing us, not the western public, and above all to the russians, they believe that they have some chance to return to power, in general to russia to power, without the ukrainian armed forces bringing victory to ukraine and actually creating a unique chance for the russians, well, in the end, to take the fate of their country in own hands, well, i am skeptical about this and of course about all people that they are capable of such a thing. i'd like us

to listen now to donald trump, the republican delegate in this united states presidential election, he's skeptical relates to this exchange, what is the justification? we are listening. i want to congratulate vladimir putin on concluding another great deal. did you see the deal we just made? in my time , i managed to free 59 hostages, and i never paid anything for it. and they released some of the greatest killers in the world, the most dangerous killers. yes, we got our people back, but we're making terrible, terrible deals. sure, it's nice to say we got them back, but it sets a bad precedent. it seems to me that ukrainians have an attitude towards donald trump moves, you know, on a sine wave, because sometimes he says, absolutely unacceptable for...