between poland and ukraine. this need remains relevant to this day, and not only in the name of our own national interests, but also in the interests of european security and the entire free world. that is why i think that this tradition should be remembered and followed. and the last question, dear mr. ambassador, you generally see the light at the end of the tunnel, as they say in ukraine. how will it end? this war is unknown, but there is a reasonable prospect of relative success for ukraine. if ukraine can keep its territory, limit russian gains to a minimum and achieve very high losses for russia, this will indicate the potential for success. if ukraine can continue and increase its strategic attacks on russian military targets, and if it can limit the effectiveness of russian... strategic attacks

on ukrainian targets, that would also indicate the potential for success. ukraine manages to practice successful attacks, especially on russian facilities in crimea. if she can maintain this momentum and if the event gives her the support she needs, there is a reasonable chance the prospect that russia will not be able to continue its war in ukraine. the minister of foreign affairs of poland said that in two years the potential russia may decrease, although this is a long time and not an easy prospect, but it is still a potential outcome. you ask about the light at the end of the tunnel, yes, it is not an easy road, but it is there. are there other options? yes, there is. we in the west, the united states and europe, have the opportunity to influence the outcome if we do our job and support ukraine as much as possible. if we will apply pressure. on russia and provide ukraine

with the weapons it needs, it may make putin either unwilling or unable to continue the war. it is not for me, as an american, to dictate what ukraine should do, instead, it is ukrainians who will have to make these decisions. by the way, i believe that the future of ukraine should be in nato, in order to prevent russia from agreeing on a ceasefire, and then regrouping its troops and attacking the... country again, it is quite possible that ukraine will come out of this war as a free, independent country , a part of greater europe and a member nato. could russia be defeated in its attempt to conquer ukraine, which could have a profound and beneficial effect on russia itself? so, you ask if there is light at the end of the tunnel, the answer is yes, but there is a thorny road ahead. the tunnel is long and difficult, and you, without any experts. this is known,

but i see a reasonable prospect of success. friends, thank you, mr. ambassador frith, for this extremely important conversation for all of us. i would like to remind our viewers that ambassador daniel frith, ex-coordinator, was currently working on espresso of the united states state department on sanctions policy, a prominent american diplomat. a journalist who joined the armed forces, a political expert who became a special agent, taras berezovyts in a new project on espresso. the real front is a thorough analysis of the main events. reports, comments of leading specialists and experts. analytics from the major of the armed forces. how to make sense of disturbing news and distinguish truth from hostile propaganda. the real front program with taras berezovets every saturday at 21:30 on espresso. broadcast by vasyl zima, me

my name is vasyl zima, this is a big broadcast on the espresso tv channel, two hours of air time, two hours of your time, so my colleagues will talk about the most important thing, two hours to learn about the war, about the military, front, component, serhiy zgurets, and what he lives world. yuriy fizar, with me already, and it's time to talk about what happened outside of ukraine. yury, good evening, two hours to keep up with economic news. time to talk about money during the war oleksandr morcha in kapor with me and sports news. i invite you to talk. according to the weather connection, for this weekend, as well as distinguished guests of the studio. mustafa dzhemilov, leader of the crimean tatar people. with us , mr. mustafa, i congratulate you. good day events of the day in two hours. vasyl ama's big broadcast. a project for smart and caring people. espresso in the evening.

mark fegin, an activist of the russian opposition, not emigration, a well-known video blogger, ex-detat of the state duma, glory to ukraine, mark, glad to see you, we understand that the enemy used shakhet this time, and accordingly, this immediately raises many questions , and maybe hints at many answers when we talk about the so-called strange arrivals, and of course this can apply not only to the current situation, in the near future, but in any case, in the kremlin, they took a note of water and nothing about it. as for the attempt on ilya ponomarov, it was completely predicted, among the people whom the kremlin would like to destroy, and among russian emigrants, oppositionists, ilya ponomarov occupies an honorable place, and he is not the only one, there are several others, and there is operational information, which is provided by

the services that provide the active project are looking for ways to destroy some effective part of russian oppositionists abroad, in relation to a certain number of people, this is known, it is not a secret. especially since drones have already arrived at the house of ilya ponomarov in the kyiv region. it is difficult for me to say anything about the technical side, perhaps kyiv region is more difficult to cover with air defense means. kyiv itself - yes, and to prevent attacks on the kyiv region, the means may not be enough, and the danger is higher there, but ponomeryov's address was not a secret, drones, shaheds or gran-2, as they are called, have already flown there. therefore, this is not news, there is something else: he arrived, as far as i understand, in kyiv at night. was at home, they could have informed some agency that he was in the house, i know that he was in america, and the drone is sent when they want to kill a specific person, and not destroy the building. so, they get some information quickly from some agency, maybe in kyiv. ilya ponomarov is writing to me just now,

so i think that most likely there will be such attempts in the future, where possible, at a distance, with the help of drones, and somewhere there will be attempts murders, some people will be sent. what is important here. it would seem that why do you want to kill him, what is his danger or the same? this is generally a false assessment. they do not assess in terms of specific dangers arising from a political leader. they need to demonstrate to everyone that this is not what you will do, to support ukraine, to promote russian connections, to oppose putin as his enemies, to spread information about what moscow is producing in ukraine and not only, it is necessary to demonstrate this, this is the main goal . not a specific danger from an individual, as well as from navalny, there was no danger, especially when he was in prison, but he had to be killed, there it was connected with the exchange, there it is still necessary to demonstrate to everyone that there will be with you if you engage in any activity at

any level against the regime in moscow. well, ukraine is an enemy, they are simply killing ukraine, and the russian opposition is the same enemies and the same targets, this is very important. draw conclusions, therefore, the defense of ukraine, as i often say among my colleagues, russian oppositionists, this is the redoubt before your death, it is necessary to defend ukraine, in addition to your ideological positions against the war and against putin, also because you will be next, this is very important to understand, therefore, ukraine is for the russian opposition, for everyone who against putin, the possibility of her protection is an opportunity to delay her death. failure to understand this leads to very sad. made playing some of the russian opposition into a game imposed by the kremlin, that it is impossible to support the military resistance of the russians to sides of ukraine, because this is vlasivshchyna, treason to the motherland, this is a very misleading, very criminal reference, and people who perceive it will be recruited sooner or later, it is very important

to understand this. the parameters of the list, mark and who specifically do you think wanted to demonstrate something with this attempt, yes, because in ukraine they are becoming... these are strange murders, the strange murder of iryna farion, yes, no one has claimed responsibility, there is a suspect, but the question of motives, the key story, yes, and when certain assassinations or political attempts happen, someone is responsible take this responsibility, or the second option, maybe, indeed, if it is the work of the kremlin, then they can simply prepare some kind of broader scenario, that is, cascading deaths and from... accordingly, then an attempt to reformat the same, i don't know, public discourse, or simply correcting it in this way, they have always done this, correcting the consequences of the physical removal of some public elements that interfere and create problems for the discourse,

yes, this is part of this program, this work, itso and the rest, many do not understand the connection of these things, for example, the discourse that opposes the negotiation process in ukraine. as such, as they have their own considerations. this is a right-wing discourse mostly, but not only. it consists in the fact that one cannot stop at the binding conditions of the agreements on the ultimatums that moscow puts forward. it is now necessary to create the most comfortable situation so that in ukraine this is not a defining thesis in public opinion. that is, if you, for example, put a lot of pressure on the radicals, let's tentatively call them that, from the side of moscow, then this public opinion will be possible bleed in the right direction. moscow needs negotiations, a ceasefire, a truce, etc., because there are conditions, both external and internal. we do not fully understand the internal ones. perhaps moscow's reserves for continuing the war are running out and fighting. everything is more complicated, for many reasons and the number of people who want to go to war has decreased,

industry, defense, it is not known how it works, all this is a secret, but what nabibulina, the head of the central bank, declares, already gives a reason to say that money for war is lacking, there are also external factors, they consist in the fact that moscow cannot remain under sanctions and pressure for too long, which is building up, but moscow, obeying these factors, wants quick negotiations, who is against negotiations in ukraine? this is important, in ukraine it is the right, it is nationally oriented forces, i.e. the majority, some effect is needed so that the influence of these forces, their radical position has less influence on public opinion. i also believe that negotiations now on the terms put forward by moscow are absolutely unacceptable for ukraine, because they will not end the war, at best they will postpone it, in the worst is prolonged. that's all in my opinion, because if we agree to moscow's terms, we can talk about this in more detail, then it means not... just a concession, but programming and tempting the aggressor to take new actions to occupy territories and end

the sovereignty of ukraine. a signal will be sent to moscow that it is possible, that it works, and from this point of view, it is necessary, of course, that someone like farion, although i do not think that she was too influential, she probably had detractors inside ukraine as well, she and the army cursed , especially with the russian-speaking part, should shut up, she's not the only one, right? and how large can the potential blacklist be, so i think, mark, that you are also on it, taking into account the sentence, or there are accusations drawn against you, so to speak, how old are you, seven or eight, or 13, i was given 11, ugh, 11 years for lawyer fagin, yes, i was already convicted in the first instance, several weeks have passed, they still don't issue the motivational part of the sentence to my lawyer, it will be very interesting to read it. there are three episodes, i think, and three interviews where i am said that there was a genocide in buch,

ukrainians were killed by the russian military, and i was convicted for that, yes, i am on this list, but i am protected by the french police, and my safety is ensured in this way, they do not know whether a drone can fly to france, this is unknown to me but security wise yes i am on that list but there are many people on it i am not the only one it would be too presumptuous to assume that they singled me out as a single target again..they don't measure efficiency according to the degree of significance, how much a person affects russian audience or not, although i have a large channel, i am still known in russia for many years, no, this is still a necessary demonstration, even an attack on ponomarov's house, this is also a demonstration for the rest, be afraid, kneel down and do not disturb, let us do what we want and disappear from the political field altogether. yes, this blacklist contains people in ukraine, it is more difficult to do it in ukraine. this is possible only remotely, at the level of drones, although contract killings are also possible, there are specifics here, this is a question for

the ukrainian special services, how they deal with this work, they must have secrets about it. if this is indeed the case, then it means that there is a revival, that is , the activation of similar things indicates some other parallel processes, and you very correctly said that the key story is the kremlin's interest in getting what it wants. yes, in particular, in a diplomatic way, but if we talk about the parameters, the first parameter, yes, the kremlin immediately announced the story that it does not want and will not communicate with our government, which it considers illegitimate, well whose, so to speak, the cow was mooing, yes, it is clearly not kremlin there, but this is one moment, another moment, the situation in the states, we understand, it will be hot in the states, and the kremlin was hoping that trump would take power from biden and after november, accordingly , he can. to put the kremlin's scenario into one gate, that is, with the ultimate imposition

on ukraine of what they say, so to speak, they want in the kremlin and agree on this matter, possibly with the trump administration, well, i am grossly oversimplifying, but the situation is getting complicated for the kremlin, and so to speak, an autumn scenario can be put in a certain so-called long drawer, and therefore they count on what, for spring, that is, the energy scenario, shaheds, rockets. and a set of measures, yes, and after there will be, as they say, immeasurable suffering of the ukrainian people, as my american friends formulate, then the kremlin would like it. so to speak, to impose, i don't know if there is istanbul-3 chibi-5 or some other site there. how do you see it? i believe that in the autumn we will not see direct negotiations or any direct actions that will contribute to this. under by direct action, i mean action by the united states. the first and most important factor - there is no certainty, who

will rule the country, will it be the same democrats, their line or trump? quite obvious. that it is possible, even diametrically opposed positions, because the uncertainty creates the uncertainty of the settlement plan, what will the parties agree to, i mean the democrats or trump? kamala harris, if she becomes a candidate and wins the election, will of course continue the biden line, which is a moderate line, pushing negotiations with ukraine, but at the same time with a firm position of supporting ukraine, providing it with military and financial assistance, etc., without making it a condition. aid in exchange for participation in the negotiations, in the trumps, i mean what he himself has said, i 'll talk about mike pompeo's plan separately, but still what he says and what we hear from him or the senator vance and some others, up to his son, can rather be interpreted so that he is ready to negotiate with putin himself, no formats are needed, neither swiss nor

in jeddah, saudi formats, nor the chinese, and why, he says, i will meet with putin and come to an agreement. that is, any shuttle missions of orbán and others are all quality of actions that serve trump's position, which are intended to involve him in some peace process, some format, istanbul, for example, he does not need it. he says: i will come to an agreement with putin personally, and why can't they come to an agreement? we heard the parameters of the plan closest to trump, according to which he does not refuse help to ukraine, but makes it dependent from ukraine's willingness to participate in peace negotiations, that is, we will help ... militarily, but ukraine must agree to peace negotiations, whether it is a parallel or a substitute process, but it is quite certain. i want to say that this cannot happen before january 20, because trump will be inaugurated if he wins the election only on january 20 , 2025, and then, closer to spring, he will hold meetings with putin and

decide something, whether they can agree or not , fundamentally. all the rest of the arguments that the ukrainian government is not... recognized because after may 20, president zelenskyi is not legitimate, all this is done by moscow through ipso in order to lower and dump the authorities in ukraine, but no more, realizing that in reality this is not an argument, after all, they will talk with the authorities in kyiv, they will negotiate deliberately, if will still start. as for all these formats, the swiss one about the peace formula, and the previous one in istanbul, and the initiative of saudi arabia, which took place on august 5, 2023, and the next one. a chinese initiative on a peace conference is also planned with the mandatory participation of russia, it seems to me that this is just a smoke screen, in reality it is still a game played by both sides, and the usa plays, and kyiv plays, somewhere it says: "well , we are ready for negotiations, understanding that in this format, in which moscow puts forward preconditions, and putin put forward his three important

preconditions before the summit in switzerland, which he believes must be implemented regardless of the start of negotiations." the lifting of sanctions, the non-aligned status of ukraine and the liberation of the unoccupied territories of four oblasts: donetsk, luhansk, zaporizhzhya and kherson. these are unacceptable preconditions. theoretically, moscow can somehow not put forward these conditions, enter the negotiation process without these preliminary conditions. what does moscow demand? it needs a cease-fire, it needs preambles to a truce, because it's different, it's not just a cease-fire. a truce always has guarantors. the parties can cease fire. but the guarantors should facilitate a truce, at least a temporary one, then negotiate directly about the details of some agreements, agreements, etc. at the moment i don't see any conditions for resolution this problem. kyiv and moscow simply cannot meet somewhere without mediators, and such a mediator is not ready. there is no one in the us, and erdogan has already lost his position as a mediator whom kyiv trusts. first of all, the usa and the west

do not see erdogan as such an already effective mediator, because he is too b... with moscow, we see that, so erdogan's platform can hardly be effective, as for china, it is more tempting, because china has an important trump card , not mutually exclusive with moscow, the opportunity to influence it and attract it to negotiations, force it to participate, this is the format, which will be approved by china itself, but it faces the problem of the usa, they are not going to give china such trump cards, they do not want china to act in this conflict on the territory of europe as a peacemaker, mediator, guarantor, someone else there, strengthening its international authority, like now china decides when to start and stop wars, the us will never agree to that, never. is generally anti-chinese, and even the current biden administration continues to call china not a superpower, but a regional power in

southwest asia, and nothing more, does not recognize his claim to some kind of binary world, bipolar, in which there is washington and beijing, so the usa will not agree to this, in my opinion, there is a very high probability of starting negotiations from the meeting itself, if trump will win, trump and putin will win, if trump... does not win, then it is very likely that some quadrilateral will be formed: the usa, china, russia, ukraine. such a quadrilateral may arise if kamala harris comes to power and trump loses the election. then yes, this configuration has a better chance, but earlier this cannot happen in the spring. well, in any case, mark, we understand that putin voiced those conditions that are unacceptable by definition for a reason, and no matter how you treat putin, well, he is not. that is, he could not voice certain parameters, in particular, when we are talking about the annexation of not yet captured ukrainian territories, and taking into account

aviation, the f-16 component, we understand that putin's plan is unrealistic, even for his generals, but he went for it, and here we can assume that certain environments are possible, i don't know what mandate abramovich had for istanbul, yes, but he... represented someone, well, accordingly, in this way, putin wants to cut off certain alternatives to his position, ideas, respectively, pompeo's plan, we understand, this is good , but also there is no stamp on this plan with the name of president donald trump, because it is not a fact that he will become president, but always in any case trump can say, well, this is pompeo's fantasy, he is a cool dude, i respect him, we drank 4 liters of whiskey, but it's not mine. idea, and accordingly, we can also be expected here unpleasant surprises, yes, because trump, the guy is also experienced, but his experience, well

, it is not a fact that he will benefit us. as for pompeo, we promised to talk about it, yes, it is quite an effective plan, there is one caveat that can be very painful for ukrainian public opinion, that ukraine can lose part of the territory, i mean the plan that was printed from wall street journal, for the rest. this is an ideal plan from the point of view of ukraine's sovereignty, this is nato membership and the rest of the things that are repeated, like boris johnson's, in his plan, which we also saw in the daily mail the day before. yes, to cede some part of the territory, but what exactly, four oblasts plus crimea, or only part of these four oblasts? this is a question of the negotiating position, which, pompeo hints, will be trump's negotiating position, namely on these parts. the trouble is that precisely the first part of the plan is absolutely... the sovereignty of ukraine is unacceptable for moscow. these plans of both johnson and pompeo are unacceptable for moscow. they may be acceptable to trump. but moscow will never agree to change the non-aligned one

status so, presumably, in these three preliminary conditions that putin mentioned before the summit in switzerland, provoking the summit in switzerland to some sharp reactions, there are conditions for the withdrawal of units of the armed forces from the unoccupied parts of the territories of the four regions, but perhaps he can give in to these. here they can eat. administrative border, perhaps. the condition of lifting the sanctions is important for moscow, because the sanctions are painful, painful, but still , they are sanctions imposed by third countries. ukrainian sanctions are not the most principled for moscow, but american, european, australian, canadian, japanese, the rest of the countries, it is necessary for them to make this request. why should kyiv, if it declares an agreement based on the previous conditions, be concerned with the cancellation of these sanctions. these are third country sanctions. as for the post-blockade status, i.e. preventing ukraine from joining nato, moscow will never back down. and on the ground, on the ground, how are they going to return

the territory, so to speak. so we also understand that this is a symbolic story, well , because putin, she is with him, they are not in vain voiced and, so to speak, made changes to the russian constitution, and with non-aligned status or nato membership, well, we understand moscow's position, yes, yes. this fable about the indivisibility of security and so on on the continent, but the story about the territories that must be returned, how they could sell them, or they could not, and they will simply stand on that. indeed, the constitution of the russian federation, which included these new subjects in its composition, provides, including the laws that will follow from it, that it is impossible to change territorial integrity russia, there is a criminal article, even for calling, i am ulmi umerova. defended in crimea under this article. in general, in no way can we talk about the rejection of the territory of the russian federation, if they included them in their constitution.

captured and turned on, yes. yes, it was already occupied and included. on the other hand, the russian constitution is chewed up paper in the toilet. no one will pay attention to the constitution. it's just that, apart from the constitution, putin's plans are even more ambitious. he wants all of ukraine, not just four regions. and here he leaves a maneuver for himself. i suppose he might somewhere to move forward, to say that we are keeping the occupied territories for ourselves, this is a negotiating position, but we are ready to bargain for the unoccupied part. what will they offer us? what he offers is interesting, and what does he offer in return for all this, and in fact the only thing offered is that they will not attack kyiv, try to attack kyiv, especially after the receipt of these planes by ukraine, according to bloomberg, yesterday, maybe 20 planes of the first party, no one knows how many, not to mention the rest, you first capture that kyiv, of course, if the troops were stationed near kiev, there were other negotiations, but this is not the case, how to determine

this military balance that gives preference? one side or the other, it is such that when the war continues, ukraine will definitely lose it, or on the contrary, ukraine will resist, moscow will definitely lack the strength to hold the occupied territories, or is it able to accumulate resources to reach the regional centers, kharkiv, odesa and others, no one knows the answer, there is a military balance, and in the conditions of a military balance, the conditions must be mutually acceptable, not imposed on the one hand, what moscow is trying to do and also uses other methods to... push its position, because they cannot achieve this by military means, if they could achieve this, they would have already achieved it and would be standing in kyiv, but this cannot be achieved, therefore, there is a big game going on here: who will increase the number of allies of their position, who will exhaust their opportunities faster, etc., in particular the information game, all these ipso that are being tested, they are also in order to undermine unity, monolithicity, confidence not only in ukraine, but also in the west.

the voices are heard, here is now a favorable position, no need to negotiate, the finnish president declares this, others also, because of course, the war is draining the resources of europe, in particular, especially since everyone is in an exhausting wait for the results of the elections in america, europe is afraid of the coming trump, the main powers, france, germany and others are afraid of this, because they have a negative experience of interacting with trump during his presidency, from 2016 to 2020. in this situation, there is no recipe, no other way, except to do what you are doing, to keep fighting, not to accept unacceptable conditions, to hold on until the situation turns in the right direction. if ukraine now retreats and agrees to some of putin's conditions, then it will be very difficult to play back, he will seize on it and say: you yourself agreed, you yourself are ready to sacrifice something, accordingly, this is a trap, and the kremlin wants to drive ukraine into this trap ,

a territorial issue. is not as important for the kremlin as the issue of ukraine's sovereignty, which involves the possibility of non-aligned status in nato and other unions, such as the european union and others. the main question is what ukraine will be like, how those 80% of territories controlled by official kyiv will emerge from this war, or will they emerge with a neutral status that can be undermined by another new war, because you are not in nato, no one covers you. the network of agreements on guarantees that kyiv is currently signing for... the post-war period may not work, but membership in nato will work, we have already seen this, the baltic countries are an example of the fact that this status works, and it is the most principled question, and it is not resolved. thank you very much, mark, for this extremely important conversation on espresso tv. take care, god help you, i want to remind our tv viewers that mark fegin, a figure in the russian opposition, not emigration, a former deputy of the state duma, who ...

received, according to the decision of the pseudo -first instance court, 13 years of imprisonment for anti-kremlin propaganda, was working for them now . thanks mark. thank you. well, the time of our program is over, stay tuned to espressu tv channel. my colleagues you will be informed about all the most important events of the day. take care of yourself and your loved ones. see you on air. hundreds of thousands of square meters of damaged property, apartments, houses that need to be rebuilt, about the situation with reconstruction in different regions of ukraine, about people's rights, opportunities and personal experience. this is what olga's house looked like last year, and what does it look like now? i am not spending money at the moment. about how to unite the country in the process of recovery in the project program of reconstruction and development of cities, every saturday at 6:30 p.m.

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