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tv   Barrons Roundtable  FOX Business  November 12, 2023 10:30am-11:00am EST

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one events that year, it is estimated that it will go for ten to $15 million in las vegas next friday. we will be following it on "mornings with maria" 6 - 9:00 a.m. eastern right here on fox business. we hope you will join me on weekdays we'll see you on the fox news channel on sunday 10:0y morning on the newschannel for "sunday morning futures". exclusive interviews with ted cruz, house judiciary jim jordan, attorney for former president donald trump, alina habba and new york post columnist miranda devine. i will see you sunday live on fox news channel for "sunday morning futures". that will do it for us, right now on fox business, thank you for joining us have a great veterans day weekend. thank you to all of our courageous veterans. i will see you again nex ♪ >> "barron's roundtable" sponsored by global x etf's.
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jack: welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead i am jack otter. bill nygren beating the market 98% of competing funds without loading on highflying tech stocks. he will share three of his top value pics. green energy stocks are in the red, the expert panel with opportunities amidst the rubble, what it means for the transition to renewables. later the power centers of america are making the move to new locations. barron's editor at large will join us at the end of the show with his insight. we began as always with three things investors to be think about right now. stocks extending gains after the best week of 2023. investors are looking ahead to key inflation data out next we week.
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by now, pay later lender affirms all a surge after better-than-expected earnings. it could be a good sign for consumer spending into the holiday season, big retailers are set to report next week. finally self driving cars are a long way off but the technology under the hood could be a promising opportunity. on the "barron's roundtable" my colleagues ben levisohn, carleton english and i'll root. we did not quite have the winning streak that we were hoping for but the second week in a row of stocks going up. >> it was a great week and no news no bigger needs and no big economic releases, the happened to be a good thing in the stock market took a momentum from last week and assigned from a hiccup on thursday we will get into in a minute and kept going up. i finished the week near the week hi and now has a two week winning streak which is quite nice after the beating and took over the last few months. jack: the winning streak hiccup was a 30 year bond option that stock investors never paid attention to until now i suspect going forward they will watch that carefully. >> this is something i never paid attention to except for a long time when i was sitting on
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the currency desk in the publication and you get these options and they go well and nobody cares but right now people are very worried about the u.s. deficit and how much money the united states is spending in the looking at the option as a sign of whether investors will keep buying the debt or are the rates going to have to go higher, we had a bad 30 year option where dealers have to buy the stock that nobody else wants to buy they had to take twice as much as they normally did that was taken as a bad sign. >> there was a hack of a chinese bank to be think that was part of it. >> they think so, it's a little wrinkle that may have made it worse than it might've been otherwise but it was not a good look. jack: look ahead, not until next week cpi. >> inflation is still a big deal, fed chair powell spoke this past week and he said he's not sure inflation has been tamed ever get to be watching the cpi to see if it comes in a little weaker than expected, great, if it is too strong we
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might have some problems. jack: speaking of inflation one would think rising inflation will be pretty bad for a company who is original business model was to lend money at interest but a firm is doing pretty well. >> affirms results came out better than feared and expected it should note there still a money-losing company but they do make loans unlike a bank they don't use depositors they have to go out to the market and because their loans are short-term, wall street is happy to buy up some of the loans and get a yield on it, more importantly see a year-over-year increase in people using affirms platform and they're able to do that while keeping delinquency low year-over-year to link with the was down about 30 basis points. not what people were expected with people looking for short-term loans so they seem to be on a better track down. jack: does this suggest they might open their wallets come holiday season. >> that's what everyone will be looking at next week will get results from target and walmart this is the tale of two box
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retailers, one walmart hovering around 52 week highs, target 52b close, target inventory issues and issues around merchandise around crime, pride month. aside from the results we do want to hear what they're saying about the health of the consumer, walmart come out ahead because they geared towards grocery, fewer discretionary items than target does. jack: got it. it seems to me for the past five years self driving cars have always been three years off just because that might always be in the future does not mean there's interesting technology plays under the hood may be a worth of a look for investors. >> you're not wrong and never seems to arrive but what we learned or starting to learn self driving cars will arrive with a whisper out with a bang and what will happen some of the safety technologies that enable cars to drive themselves then more cars will become more common and that's what a cop coy
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like mobilizes doing hardware and software to enable cars to drive themselves in the amounts to all the things that are put together that create the hands-free type environment our colleague eric read about it today. just for context it is growing sales at about 30% on the year on average. that is the take-up from automakers for products like this. it is happening you just need to know where to look. jack: let's hope self driving autos don't ride with a bang. real quick tesla where did they say tesla. >> you know what's money they don't use mobilize but it's approach is almost exactly the same as tesla's approach that's almost exactly the same as general motors approach so elon and tesla get a lot of flak for the brash, full self driving, robo taxis. if you look at the industry and have a very similar approaches.
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jack: my next guest said you don't have to pay for the pricey tech stocks and he sees big value in low-price issues. how one bank can become a play
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jack: investors using the 60 -- 40 strategy to get 70% hit in 2022 the worst performance in 20 years according to blackrock but my next guest says classic stock bond allocation could be a good move in 2024, joining the oakmark fund portfolio manager bill nygren, thank you for coming in from chicago. we appreciate it. >> thank you for having me. >> we hear a lot of talk how mortgage rates are skyhigh and bond yields keep on going up but
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if you look back in the past 50 or 60 years this is actually normal in the 6040 portfolio allocation the classic allocation looks like it might work again. >> i think so. employment rates were there were so many people telling investors that they needed bond to their portfolio as a risk reducer. now that the rates are significantly higher the same people are saying the 6040 portfolio is broken. if you look at a fund like the oakmark bond the yield is about 6% in the fund. that is a pretty good real yield, higher inflation and if you marry that with an equity portfolio today you should have pretty good long-term returns. jack: people look back to the recent performance and think it's bad but it's where it should be. you focus on the 60 part of the portfolio you are a stock investor. let's talk about us couple of your pics and they're all trading at decent evaluations but one that is really interesting what are the larger holdings in your fund is capital one bank which you say is an a.i. play. >> at the back door a.i. play. i remember when computers were a
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new thing. >> -year-old. >> sam. >> me to. >> investors thought they had to buy the hardware companies to benefit. the real beneficiaries were those that use computers to broaden the mow in their own businesses. capital one sells at book value seven times earnings the leading credit card and auto lender. the business was founded with the idea that they can better utilize technology than the large banks were doing and capital one has continued to have the technology edge. we believe management today as they talk about all of the opportunities for a.i. to reduce cost and help them to better qualify their lenders. if that helps their business it is a bonus of seven times earnings and nobody's pricing it in. jack: it still ran by the same founder who had that idea which is rare. >> article is one of our largest
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energy names and it sells less than ten times earnings like most of them do. it has a very long runway of inventory and low cost production but as the industry has taken on more capital discipline, the thing that sticks out to us about conocophillips is the way management think about reinvesting in the business, they're more than happy to reinvest if it's an area where there competitively advantaged and they think they can earn excess returns. but if it is not the money comes back to the shareholders. so you don't see them making the same green energy investments that a lot of the large oil committees have made because they think we as investors can do a better job making those investments than they could. jack: has a decent yield, i guess like all of them do. let's go to another sector, back to the financial sector i'm hearing a lot from financial advisors, high net worth investors about the benefits of alternative investments. i don't know if that's better
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than 6040 but one way to play that is kkr which you like an alternative investment. >> kkr is one of those names that a value investor might page through value line or looking at different companies and say it looks like it's selling trident's mid-20 gap earnings and is a good company and is recognized but if you take a deeper dive they have about $20 of the share of investment in their own products which don't produce much in earnings and they have a lot of incentive products that this year are not producing much in earnings either. we think if you roll out two years and get back to normal incentive fees and value the investment separately that you are paying barely double digits for the asset management side of kkr maybe 12 times earnings. we think they are the leader in alternatives. people think of them as a private equity firm but their infrastructure plays, real
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estate plays and what they're doing in asia that's where most of the growth is coming in the company. jack: thank you very much bill. the green energy transition has hit a snag as renewable stocks get burned but there is still clean energy plays that are worth a look for i the chase ink business premier card is made for people like sam, who make- everyday products, designed smarter. like a smart coffee grinder, that orders fresh beans for you. oh, genius! for more breakthroughs like that- i need a breakthrough card. like ours! with 2.5% cash back on purchases of $5,000 or more. plus unlimited 2% cash back on all other purchases. and with greater spending potential, sam can keep making smart ideas- a brilliant reality! the ink business premier card from chase for business. make more of what's yours.
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(fisher investments) it's easy to think that all money managers are pretty much the same, but at fisher investments we're clearly different. (other money manager) different how? you sell high commission investment products, right? (fisher investments) nope. fisher avoids them. (other money manager) well, you must earn commissions on trades. (fisher investments) never at fisher. (other money manager) ok, then you probably sneak in some hidden and layered fees. (fisher investments) no. we structure our fees so we do better when our clients do better. that might be why most of our clients come from other money managers. at fisher investments, we're clearly different.
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jack: green energy stocks are in the bed this year as high interest rates slam the energy. our interest panel is here to break down the high selloff and what investing opportunities still exist the barron's cover story this week. >> why is the market sour on the highflying stocks. >> the green energy revolution is not over, it certainly hit a speed bump the high interest
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rates are really a problem when your company with the new business and a new industry you're not going to make a lot of money so you want low interest rates because the money you need to borrow is essentially free. >> exactly, that you have interest rates other gone from - 5% and that's it in enormous problem and you have supply chain issues in china that is making low-cost solar panels and things like that. but you add it all up and it's a huge issue you have other things of hydrogen is very expensive and use all that with plug power 40% on friday after it came out in issued a row and concern warning. there's a lot of work to be done the stocks have been terrible, 76 of 77 stocks in a green etf in the wilder hill clean energy have been down over the past few months. >> that's an incredible statistics i don't do any short seller was 77 stocks and get 76 right. >> this is also hitting your
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neck of the woods the eb carmakers. >> don't forget a lot of these electric vehicle stocks are green energy stocks, tesla down 13% over the past three months, rivian down 29, charge.eb charging copied on 65, three months, gm and ford delaying energy, over 23%. it's been not good. >> meanwhile big investors have been caught on the wrong side of the trade. >> absolutely sold the koch brothers, you could not have time this worse. the family had disputed the impact of global warming before but they started to get into renewable energy, 2021 during the boom maybe not the best timing invested in about 12 companies through sense than average performance is down about 60% during that time obviously it has not worked well for them and to hear the koch brothers tell it where people close to them were in this for the long term and with billions
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of dollars they can afford to wait it out away that somebody may be buying a stock here or there can't afford to do in the freezing the looking at this as a tuition payment, we're going to invest in the new industry and hope that it grows up and goes on its way. but the near-term performance is not so good. >> whatever you think of this industry whenever any sector gets hit this hard the contrary has to think somewhere in there there is a bargain. >> i think you have to look at the utilities that are investing in green energy. big one is our next era and aes have been hammered there down 30 and 40% respectively but the really solid companies in the next era is trading at a market multiple when normally 50% more expected it still expected to grow seven to 9% earnings through 2025 with them being down so much i look pretty good. >> this to have a customer base. beyond the utilities what you looking at.
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>> i agree the contrary, some of the electric vehicle related stocks is alysia minor it's been beaten up tremendously, i would still look at that is like investing in a commodity during peak fear and you can always do the pick and shovel, electrical component, that stock is not so beaten up and enjoyed the nice run, quantum services it builds electrical infrastructure, the oc a lot of the benefits of infrastructure spending so there's opportunities that a company like in phase in the solar value but has a lot of technology they make the solar inverters. when things recover that's a more stable business. >> real quick the energy transition is this on hold or does this still happen. >> it's not on hold it still happening like europe, they need to clean energy to work they cannot rely on russian oil or middle east oil there to keep investing in this.
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the united states is going to be slower but a lot of people like private companies putting a lot of money into the transition. it might take a little bit longer than people thought but it's still going to happen, the one thing that we have to expect oil is going to remain in demand speaking of remain record level all the way through 2050 or to a recent un report. >> this country is pumping more oil we are the lead producer in the world. >> our panel has investment ideas coming up next. interment at large will be joining us with insight on the new power cities emerging in the u.s. stay right liberty mutual customized my car insurance and i saved hundreds. with the money i saved, i started a dog walking business. i was a bit nervous at first but then i figured it's just walking, right? [dog barks] oh. no it's just a bunny! calm down taco. sit duchess. stop! sesame no no. archie! walter don't, no, ahhhh. ahhhhh! you're lucky you're so cute. only pay for what you need. ♪liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty.♪
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jack: andy if you and i one have a power lunch we're going to have to get on a plane, d.c., silicon valley, no longer.
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>> there's new power cities and there in the sunbelt and the sunbelt has been on the rise since the advent of air conditioning over 100 years ago. that's not new but what is new is the magnitude the order of change that were seen here is stunning in these new cities like dallas, houston, miami are reaching. with the new york and washington and chicago and a number of different ways. silicon valley and san francisco an old power center that is not going anywhere it still doing great but the rise of the rest of technology centers in houston and particularly in austin and phoenix and nashville is something else for instance in nashville your scene hubs being created by amazon, meta and oracle, music city's healthcare city a lot of healthcare companies there as well. >> the big winner is texas. >> absolutely dallas and houston lead the parade and those two cities are leading the nation of population growth respectively, one and two.
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if you take dallas the fourth biggest city in the country right now, 8 million people up from 1 million in 1950 all of these copies from california move there like schwab, mckesson, jacobs, you can fly 50 cities internationally, houston the fifth biggest city could 25 fortune 500 companies base their get the part, healthcare, the space going on. and of course speaking of california, texas a big war going on between governor abbott of texas and gavin newsom of california with billboards and signs going up against each other. jack: that thought the only battle route 95 is a battle between the southern and the northern cities. >> latte between new york and miami that has been going on for decades between the attacks and optimizers i should say. but a lot of financial services moving down from new york to miami like l.a. management, icon, kathy wood moved in,
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citadel from chicago in the gateway to latin america. that is another trend read we heard about that for a long time. that is huge, getting bigger not slowing down. 1100 companies now have their latin american headquarters based in miami. big stuff. jack: good food too. i'll see you in miami. jack: let's do actionable ideas. then i'll start with you. >> i'm looking at fastenal, they make screws and bolts and things like that. industrial stock. industrials have been crushed but it is an early industrial comets would do better as industrials recover it's not exactly cheap but if the earnings are better-than-expected the evaluation can remain the same or come down as a stock comes up. >> take a look at cope part this is a stock from the salvage parts for used autos. even they don't suffer too much even if you use prices go down that much because the parts
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oriented business treating online with the five-year average, plenty of room for upside so it looks like an interesting pick here. jack: al yeah very important advice for investors. >> tax optimizers and thinking of renewable story it is harvest season, take a look at your portfolio losers see if you can harvest them for taxes, you have to stay out of the trade for 30 days and make sure your financial advisor is helping you earn the fees. jack: i beat the drum all the time don't say i'll wait till i get back to even sell now, by some, similar equivalent etf and 30 days later by a back. thank you guys. to read more check out this week's edition at barron's.com. don't forget to follow us on ask at barron's online. we will see you next week on "barron's roundtable". ♪ know you want one of those. >> there you go. ♪ ♪ s ♪ good sunday morning welcome

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