they came out blockbuster predictions and they showed the world that they're monetizing a.i., can they do that again, the semiconductor sector continue to gain. >> revenue slowdown globally, probably not because everyone is going to slow down spending that's how nvidia makes money, the magnificent seven is one of them has taken us where we are in the portfolios are up and my clients portfolios are up s&p 500 mega cap stocks, they are one of them, i say that going forward even nvidia could get her if the economy slows here in the u.s. >> that is one stock i wish i bought a long time ago. it is up 300%, thank you very much, that doesn't for making money, cheryl casone is in for liz claman today. over to you. >> thank you so much i am cheryl casone and i am in for liz claman today. we have some breaking news as we kick off the final hour of trade

right now. microsoft shares hitting all-time highs admitted game of musical chairs within the tech giants crucial a.i. partner open a.i. chat gpt ousted ceo sam altman late friday after the board said it no longer had confidence in altman's ability to continue leading the company. open a.i. chief technology officer was briefly appointed interim ceo before they replace quickly by twitch ceo emmett scheer the drama with the shocking twist thanks to microsoft ceo satya nadella announcing sam altman and greg brockman are joining microsoft word advanced a.i. research team, this comes as hundreds of open a.i. employees and potential customers are threatening to leave. unless altman is reinstated as the ceo, did you catch all that

it's been a lot. in case you did not we have team coverage of all of this developing story right now, fox business correspondent susan li is with me and the group ceo daniel newman, both of them standing by, susan i will start with you you had your finger on the pulse of the tech industry for years, take as to what happened and how we got to this point for open a.i. >> this company makes chat gpt is the reason we've been talking about a.i. artificial intelligence for the entire last 12 months. we had a shocking boardroom coup that shook silicon valley over the weekend yet ceo cofounder sam altman blindsided fired a video link friday afternoon. numerous theories on why he possibly was ousted including conflict of interest with altman's other private a.i. ventures also concerns that he was pushing speed and profit ahead of a.i. safety considerations. there were long talks this weekend to bring altman back on

as open a.i. ceo, despite the pressure from open a.i. largest investors, those talks seem to have failed at least for now, microsoft says that they have hired altman and other senior open a.i. executives with microsoft ceo satya nadella that were extremely excited to share the news of sam altman and greg brockman and several others will lead a new a.i. research team. the microsoft deal might've been a holding pattern just for now for altman according to the verge. this is after altman this afternoon just tweeted and hinted that he might be back at open a.i. writing that we are all going to work together some way or another and i'm so excited, remember that microsoft is the biggest open a.i. investor, they committed at least $12 billion but the first person to actually invest or donate at the time to open a.i. was elon musk, elon musk tweeted

is very important for the public to know why the board felt so strongly about the actions if it was a matter of a.i. safety, that would affect all of earth. also this morning over 70% of openai staff have now threatened to quit and join almanac microsoft if the board did not resign in altman is reinstated. even the alleged coup leader says he is regrets on the board's actions this weekend. as of the apex ceo summit listening with sam a day before he was fired which is surprising for everybody. at the event he had some profound future predictions for a.i. saying that it will create a decade from scarcity to abundance. a.i. will be more powerful and advanced than what we imagine a year from now. cheryl: susan thank you for that report, there are a lot of questions about how this all unfolded so quickly. i want to bring in the man known as a tech ceo whisper daniel newman, great to have you here.

over the weekend you spoke with several technology ceos, what did they tell you exactly played out and he came to sam altman were many surprised and scratching their heads like most were this monday morning. >> everyone was scratching their heads, there was no clarity as to why such a sudden significant move was going to be made, sam altman began the revolution last year in november when chat gpt hit the market and there is nothing nefarious that was being recorded and he was not embezzling or doing anything crazy in the evolution of the development of the product had been really substantial and significant and people were finding generation to generation improvements. it was so unclear and everyone was saying, all the ceos expected there has to be more to the story and as a week and evolve the saturday came and in the sunday cayman, there is more

and more and now there is still a possibility that he will return as ceo although it seems that landed on microsoft is where were going to end up. cheryl: the fear he's not just going to go to microsoft along with the cofounder openai but is going to take a large amount of staff with him, at this point over 700 committed to leaving openai and going to microsoft with him, isn't that a bit of a death for openai particular as susan li reported, now were finding out that the board member that was leading the ouster has regrets about this decision and the whole movement that happened on friday. >> is a bit of a chess game, microsoft made a substantial investment with openai and i doubt it wants to see the investment capitulate. if a man and brockman come over i'm sure they're going to want to see it openai flourish as long as the long-term strategy.

having said that the allegiance in the alliance and even the biggest investor being microsoft all see incredible value in altman, brockman and even the recent ignite event they opened up the large language partner, there are many options, openai boats was drinking and the commercialization effort were by far the most significant opportunity to stay ahead of the curve. they're going to have to tapped into little bit between the two things. it seems that a lot of the talent and the interest included investors are going to follow altman rather than openai. cheryl: you said this is being compared to steve jobs, a lot of folks don't remember that at one point steve jobs was ousted from apple and brought back, they're saying this is a very similar situation. before you go in your opinion is

this an example of an overly empowered board that was making rash decisions and maybe did not have a full understanding of the business by which they were overseen as the board of directors. >> my instinct this was a reprehensible action by the board and did not understand the circumstances when there was billions of dollars at play you always have to wonder between a nonprofit and commercialization effort, weight is leadership land, who has control and you simply saw the worst leadership in government and now openai is going to pay the price, this is going to be a very good thing and the stock reacted that way. >> daniel newman thank you for your commentary this afternoon on the breaking news, we appreciate it. we have a fox market alert for all of you right now take a look at your markets, stocks are

extending their gains on optimism that the fed is done raising rates, we are closely watching a particular s&p 500 right now we are poised to exit correction territory if the s&p closes higher by 15.9 points as you can see were above that right now it is the closing bell anything can happen in the next 52 minutes. right now were on track, take a look at the doubt as you can see on your screen we've been fighting with session highs at 243 right now that is almost to the highs of the session we are on pace to finish at a three month high for the dow jones industrials this is the story of the day, the year in nvidia earnings coming out tomorrow "after the bell", the nasdaq on pace to close at its highest level since august 1st, the tech heavy nasdaq is how your year-to-date by about 35.5% right now, another story the market has been following that

is treasury yields, the ten year as you can see is down a little more than two basis points, lifting off a two month low let's begin the floor show executive to dissect all of the moves, j.p. morgan chief global strategist david kelly. good to see you again let's touch on the last point that i made about treasury yields the yields have been keeping the market so nervous, were coming off of three strong weeks for stocks and gains, and other moving into the holiday scenario in the holiday weeks ahead, i think a lot of investors are wondering if this is going to continue for the rest of the year. >> really what is built on throughout the last two years we had this inflation scare and even as it began to come down they said maybe it's sticky, the most unpopular thing about inflation this is just transitory, nobody built the idea that it was transitory, but actually the data suggest it was

transitory we got onto the roller coaster, the thing about roller coaster no matter how scary it is you can offer you got on, we got on the 2% inflation, looks like we got off at 2% inflation, everything of the numbers were headed right back down to 2% by the end of next year, i think it's a capitulation in the realization were good to be back at low-inflation again within a year, that's what giving the stock market and the bond market and there's putty a people who are clinging onto the motion that inflation is not going away, if it does go away we will support the market. cheryl: we have core cpi that the court number was at 4% that is double the fed's target at 2%. >> we know a lot about the construction of the number and so much is coming from rent and the way the government measures. the other part is auto insurance which people talk about a lot, another big component of the core cpi and those two things are keep it elevated and we can predict because there's so

lagged how those things will come down over the next year we feel good that inflation is still coming down and that's what's been in the market. >> this is the economy outwork energy prices and gasoline which we got a little bit of a reprieve for the month of october, obviously we got the conflict between israel and hamas that continues on in the middle east and the russia ukraine war, china et cetera do the global stories as the saudi's could cut production again, does that worry you at all. >> of course so many things that could go wrong or did a lot of them have. >> that's why you have to be diversified. let's think about what we've learned the last few weeks we had a horrible situation in israel and gaza which is off of the human perspective in the united states and saudi arabia and iran are not particularly anxious to fight this over oil that will surprise a get cut

back, back is to happen, so far that hasn't happened we see the government stay open a threat of a closing in a settlement to the uaw, the screenwriter strike and a lot of the uncertainty, even president xi medium with president biden that the chinese are not as aggressive as some people fear that they might be a few months ago, they have a lot on their plate. nobody ever puts out a headline that tensions faded. over the course of the last few weeks tensions have faded into the short run also supporting markets. cheryl: the retail sales number a little light last week i was looking at a report coming in from the federal reserve bank of new york, basically they say households anticipate less likely to apply for a credit card and consumers are getting more pessimistic overall. that is a lending story but overall economics. >> we saw 4.9% gdp in the third quarter, this is 4.9% economy, this is a slow-growing economy

and i think will only get 2% growth over the next year may be less, the good news is the unemployment is still below 4% and we don't see any sign that is good to go about 4% it is a slowdown but if we end up in an economy next year with 4% unemployment in 2% growth in inflation, no recession that's a pretty good economy and i think investors have been looking at the bright side and they should. cheryl: a 30% chance rate cut in 2024. >> i would not put my money on, the federal reserve, if you ever had one of those friends is always late. you know you're going to be late the fed is going to be late and take their time. cheryl: we like to her, david kelly it's great to see you, as always thank you for being here. the war and gaza showing no signs of slowing down as israeli troops pushed deeper into the southern t strip to walk out

wipeout hamas terrorists. anti-semitism is blossoming on college campuses. the president of the university to share his thoughts on all of the above the rabbi straight ahead, take a look at the dowhu leaders, the top of thnde boardn bowing the strongest, verizon, salesforce all performing, "the salesforce all performing, "the claman countdown" coming rightey back. [dog barks] no it's just a bunny! only pay for what you need. ♪liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty.♪ ♪ is it possible to fall in love with your home... ...before you even step inside? ♪ discover the magnolia home james hardie collection. available now in siding colors, styles and textures. curated by joanna gaines.

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i can make meals that the whole family will enjoy. it just works in everyday life as a mom. we went over the weekend the israeli military pushed deeper into the gaza strip seizing the largest hospital the world health organization has confirmed that 12 people at the medical center have been killed during the raid while the idf said it uncovered a net worth of

hamas tunnels below the hospital that spans over 50 meters, it also said the 28 premature babies have been evacuated from the hospital and transported to egypt for urgent care after medical equipment is knocked down during the ground offensive all of this is president joe biden sounded optimistic about a possible hostage release. >> mr. president, there is a hostage deal here. >> i believe so. >> yes. cheryl: joining me is the univyeshiva university. thank you for having me. cheryl: our prayers are with you and the jewish people getting the hostages out first and foremost a priority, are you optimistic of what you see them play out in washington. >> we are very focused on bringing them home. we had a rally last tuesday in

washington yeshiva university with 300,000 people at the rally saying we need to bring our hostages home, these are our families and american citizens israeli citizens, foreign nationals, this is an urgent urgent matter for all of us. cheryl: as a university president, i have to ask you about something michael bloomberg the former mayor of new york city of the wall street journal or editorial, he said that jewish students are bearing the breath of colleges culture of intolerance conformity and safe spaces. >> i think michael bloomberg wrote so poignantly last week it was so moving and an important piece on college campuses are now breeding grounds a non- for truth but actually for ignorance and what we need to happen is the leadership of the universities need to assert with more clarity and what is the situation right now and gaza, hamas is a terrorist

organization and what they did on october 7, they said they would do it again and again, and again. a university leader needs to teach its students what is the truth so they don't get intermingled into hamas rhetoric, they can be pro-palestinian, they need to be anti-hamas. cheryl: let's talk about what's happening on the nation's campuses, college campuses across the country, shocking to many what we seen. we have the department of education saying that they've opened an investigation and what were seeing, i'll give you the schools, cornell, nyu, columbia, upn, secretary cardona says there's probably going to be more added to the list. are you encouraged by the move by the department of education. >> i'm very encouraged by secretary cardona he's taking this very seriously he has not

only made clear what the law to the university is but he is starting to publish his list some people see the lawsuits that are currently underway. it is very important for the federal government to bring clarity to the situation so everyone understands the consequences and that the incentives are aligned. the universities want to protect their students, we should be clear whether the cases and what are the situations and how the universities can best meet the needs. cheryl: of the students uneducated, have they have been and doctor needed, is every college campus decided to go woke, the safe spaces of michael bloomberg talks about are a bit of a joke when you think about what is happening on the ground in israel and what happened on october 7 in particular, you obviously started this coalition with 100 university presidents to in this. what are they saying to you, what can be done. >> that is a great question, i have spoken to over 100 college presidents who signed my letter.

i have spoken to dozens of presidents all across this country and they have said that this issue has divided the campus like no other social issue in recent memory and part of our problem is number one anti-semitism israel it is been hiding under the surface and it's been allowed to surface with the legitimacy and anti-semites amongst them are being allowed to spread to college students who just don't know the facts, they don't know the middle east, they feel like they want to represent the people that they feel are unrepresented. they're getting entangled with hamas rhetoric and they have to be taught by their educators and university leaders and that's what this letter does in the university leadership over 100 of them who signed it that you can be pro-palestinian but need to be anti-hamas you need to be against terrorism abroad and hate at home.

>> they were not even alive on september 11, 2001, it is so disappointed what we are seeing with our nation. >> i think we can do something, this is a moment to turn, the angels can align together and we could do something good on the college campuses and around our country. cheryl: thank you so much for coming in, please keep us posted on this group. >> organist switch gears for a moment your favorite candy using an ingredient that the fda banned and make up more than 30 years ago, jeff flock has details on the hot topic calling the skittles band. take a look at the market the dow is up to 38, and nasdaq and s&p higher as well. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ ♪

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cheryl: fox business alert, take a look at your market the dow hit a new session highs, a few moments ago, the dow is higher by 272, 74 a couple moments ago, as you can see the s&p and the nasdaq strong performances today, the s&p is up by 42, the nasdaq is up by 175. let's take a look at boeing that stock is flying to the top of the dow after deutsche bank raised its rating on hold to buy the bank raised start under price target from 204 - 270 of higher free cash flow, db says the games will come from accelerating aircraft

deliveries, the stock is up for a half percent. different pharma stocks, same problem, bristol-myers 270 bio were tanking after the fda announced it would review the application to expand u.s. approval of the multiple myeloma therapy versus making the decision by the target date of december 16. separately, buyers late stage trial of an anticlotting drug also putting pressure on bny as it is in the late stage trial of his own blood thing center candidate developed with j&j. as you can see all the socks in the red. departures at general motors robotech, cofounder and chief product officer daniel kohn has resigned, day after the ceo quit. tumultuous time for this company, cruz issued a voluntary retail for nearly a thousand vehicles suspended operations on public roads and they are dealing with regulatory scrutiny after a cruise car collision

with a pedestrian. shares of gm, higher by two-point to 5%, a lot of that is aglow up from the uaw contract being signed, let's take a look at children's place, the stock is actually lower, be riley cut the rating from buydown to neutral, they also cut the price target on the apparel retailer from 45 dented $19. be riley says it's worried about a drop in gross margins versus increasing cost from children's place to children's candy we go. there is children's place, did you see what i did, kids across the country are probably finishing up the halloween stashes of candy but while most parents are concerned about cavities and could be a much more serious health problem linked to a few candy ingredients. california recently passed a law which bans companies for manufacturing, selling and distributing for ingredients, sometimes using popular candies.

candy makers are pushing back is another state begins looking into this exact issue. just law is in pennsylvania, more on what's being called the skittles band, are skittles a part of this? >> no they're not, matter-of-fact, the thing is the presence of red dye number three which is not skittles to be clear is in a lot of children's candies. you see some of them out here, what makes this interesting, red dye number three, we remember red dye number two being banned in the 70s, red dye number three has been banned in the uk, the new, china, japan, is new zealand, all of those have been banned in the u.s. but you can put on your face but you can eat it. a lot of people think that's crazy.

most candy makers by the way have done away with red dye number three. skittles no red dye number three, cruisers known red dye number three, red m&ms, no red dye number three. there are alternatives but since it's ill legal folks that make z still use it, peeps, red peeps, still use it, double bubble chewing gum still has it and a lot of different cake decorations, the icing on that sort of thing. all of this doesn't make sense and even legislatures in pennsylvania that are republicans that are typically against more regulation say we have to do something about this, it doesn't make sense. >> there are available are turning tips, there sometimes cheaper sometimes not. when i tried to ban any foods or put anybody out of business, this is about consumer protection. >> we reached out to the national confectioners association speaking for the

candy companies. they say it's a massive overstep on the part of the pennsylvania legislature. estate planning fda approved ingredients undermines consumer trust and creates confusion around food safety. i might say having a chemical that you're not allowed to put on your face on your mouth, that may be a little confusing too. listen. >> at the fda had been on top of this issue it would be unnecessary for states like california and now pennsylvania to step in and do the job that the agency has not done. now new york state is also joined those taking a look at this. it seems to be bipartisan, a lot of people don't like regulation but if your kids in the legislature in pennsylvania has young children and she says i care about what they put in their mouth especially at a young age. i always love it, this may not be in vogue anymore but with

republicans and democrats come together on something it makes my heart warm somehow. cheryl: is a thanksgiving miracle. jeff flock. thank you jeff. we appreciate it. millions already heading to the airport to get a jump on thanksgiving travel, the ceo of frontier airlines is going to join me to telesis holiday travel season will go a little bit smoother than last year's national flight nightmare. remember that last year, take a look at airline stocks, united, american, delta, jetblue, southwest all trading higher, jet flew there is a story, claiming countdowns can come right but back. ♪ but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. t. rowe price, invest with confidence. salonpas, makers of powerful pain relief patches

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season. tsa expecting 30 million passengers to fly from nove november 17 to the 28th, over the weekend 7.7 million travelers flew putting them on track to hit the 30 million record. now take a look at the live shot of reagan national airport down in d.c. the situation seems to be so far running smoothly as passengers head out to their flight, the lack of air traffic controllers and tsa workers has affected air travel throughout the entire year user transportation secretary pete buttigieg had to say about what the government is doing about it. watch. >> the level of disruption that we saw particularly on blue sky days was unacceptable which is why we acted at every level to improve conditions for passengers. we have accelerated atc hiring and monitoring is asian in 1500 new controllers in the last fiscal year. most important we pushed airlines to do better and help them accountable when they made mistakes.

cheryl: will the new hirings be enough to handle the holiday travel search, joining us on the fox business exclusive frontier airlines very devil. good to see you. >> thank you for having us on. >> tell me about the air traffic controllers have you noticed the difference smoother at frontier because of the hiring. >> i don't have the hiring has impacted operations yet, i know they've all gone through training but i would tell you over the last 4 - 6 weeks with the best operations in years and i know the industry is doing very well in addition. with weather and air traffic control has gone up a major challenge i think the airlines are doing great. cheryl: how are you doing with pilot hiring that was one of the biggest deals with covid. >> the pilot hiring have subsided and we found herself in a little bit of a surplus at the moment and i think the industry is doing much, much better, i think the biggest concerns our weather in air traffic control for the holidays.

cheryl: we got breaking news a few moments ago the u.s. senate is opening up an investigation into airline baggage seat selection and change fees, obviously usa scrutiny before the entire industry has about the extra fees, are you surprised that this is been picked up once again? >> i'm a little surprised, just like i think they find every time when you look at the data frontier comes out on top were the lowest price for consumers even when you include all the additional's with the lowest fares in the lowest total price. i'm sure the highlight what a great value frontier is for consumers. the least of which go wild which allows all you can fly for $499 for a year. cheryl: there has to be fee restrictions, i'm just guessing. >> there are some restrictions but as you know is probably good or better than the employee travel. it is confirmed a day or two and advanced. up to ten days for

international. it's a pretty good deal. we have a lot of availability. cheryl: you been expanding, your shot froze up. hopefully i did not lose you. at least you canr me. i want to ask you, you expanded operations and adding flights, caribbean, mexico, is this because of the revenge travel that we've been seeing, do you think the travelers are going to keep that up as far as wanting to get on airplanes and spend money? >> i think they are continuing to travel i don't know if it's revenge travel but people of flexibility than they used to have so we continue to see an elevated leisure travel and i think you will continue to see that for years, a lot of them went to europe another long-haul this summer but we're going to start to see the comeback especially as it gets colder, people are going to want to go to florida and the caribbean this winter. cheryl: i'm right there with all of them, real quick before you go i want to bring up a bad topic for most of our viewers, that would be last year, christmas was a mess, we had

38000 flights canceled, bad weather which was horrible enough and that led to southwest airlines having a complete system meltdown, the ceo address of the company addressed it. is the industry ready for bad weather this week which is coming to the northeast and also a potential bad weather for the holidays? >> i think the industry is better prepared than ever. again i think what we had last year was unprecedented from a weather event in particular and one carrier had more challenges than others. we've been investing a lot and becoming more and more and were not where we want to be but i would tell you were much more resilient as an industry even the way we were last year. cheryl: how to complement your strategy not to throw stones if you live in a glass house that can happen to anybody, there you go. will be looking forward to hopefully having a smooth travel season. barry t good to have you on.

coming up next, the closer is here to tell us how to avoid market turkeys in your portfolio. we are getting started with the thanksgiving puns. it's going to keep going the rest of the week. here is the doubt for you right now, by 260, possession hi, you never know, 14 minutes to go, we'll be right back. ♪ the human story of gold. how it shapes us... "we're going down?" ... and our world. it's a story... i thought i knew. turns out it's far more incredible... - "it takes your breath away." - ... than i ever imagined. switch to shopify so you can build it better, scale it faster and sell more.

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♪. cheryl: defense secretary lloyd austin announcing $100 million in new military aid for ukraine today during a visit to kyiv with president embryonic stem z. it looks to rebuild ukraine amidst its war with russia. i mispronounced president zelenskyy es first name. >> how do you say vladimir. cheryl: you know various names you can't say. >> cheryl casone. cheryl: you always say it right. how, how are you? you look great. >> there are two efforts going on here with zelenskyy.

making sure u.s. government aid still flows to you a krien at a very difficult time, the war essentially bogged down. it is at a stalemate right now but also the notion of private sector money. we've been covering this a lot lately. there was a major meeting in new york a couple weeks ago led by jpmorgan chase and, a second meeting with zelenskyy and larry fink at blackrock. that is the two main financial advisors. what i understand zelenskyy is reaches out to his main financial advisors. here is the problem we have, cheryl. with the war in the middle east cranking up, the world's attention is on the middle east and it's hard for him to make inroads with even with the private sector as everybody is distracted by what is going on in israel and gaza, the potential for a major conflict. so i would say charitiably the

private sector efforts have stalled a bit. if they didn't stall what would that mean? within the mex six months you would see something happening. the two sort of projects kind of slated unofficially, factories in the western part of the country and potential for tourism. ukraine's a beautiful country when it is not being blown up just so you know. rockets are not hitting kyiv. it is amazing country, beautiful landscape, you name it. they think they cohave a tourism industry. barry sternlicht, one of the major hotel builders in the world, he was at i believe at the meeting that we were referenced at the ukrainian mission a couple weeks ago. so there is, i think that is what is going to happen. it would have happened sooner if it were not for this. from what i understand it is essentially a year away for the private sector money to really start flowing. obviously if the war ended tomorrow it would come in sooner. that is where we are right now.

cheryl: what will end it? that is the thing. you wonder if you know, you hope that you know, the two sides could come together. >> yes. cheryl: they just haven't. they both dug in. >> it's both, dug in, a stalemated war at home but also what is going on in the middle east is a very big distraction for wall street right now. that's where we are. if is something changes i will update it. we're at, the fund-raising from a private sector standpoint is a stalemate like the war right now. cheryl: charlie gasparino, good to see you. closing bell will ring. we have about five minutes to go. looks like the bulls, we're starting holiday shortened traying week pretty thankful. s&p is looking to exit correction territory by 32 points. all we need is 15.09. we should be in good shape. i don't want to yanks it. sometimes i do that. we'll get out of correction

territory. president biden participating in the annual white house tradition in turkey pardon, sparing two birds, liberty, and belle, from ending up on somebody's dinner terrible thursday. our "countdown closer" says he has a stratthat will stuff your portfolio with returns and not stuff the gains. i'm out of puns. we have tom hanlon. hey, tom, great to see you. >> thank you, so much, cheryl for having us on. cheryl: speaking of turkeys this market this year, has not been a turkey, especially how the nasdaq performed. this is the week we think, okay, now we're going to the holidays. how did the year play out for us. where are weaknesses in your portfolio, it still seems to be technology? >> yeah, absolutely. that is where you're seeing strength in the market all year long. you've seen it in the large cap tech stocks, consumers services discretionary names. you've seen a fair amount of

fundamental support. visibility into earnings, cloud spend, a.i. spend, all the important technology component that go into corporate america. so we still think that's a key leader going into year-end. you've seen a small rally on small cap stocks but they have been within this minus 10% trading range for year-and-a-half now. we've not seen a real material decisive breakout there yet. cheryl: we have nvidia after the bell. we'll see how that stock does, it created a firestorm in a good way the last time they reported earnings. what is interesting here again as we looked, we have a lot of inflation data last week. tomorrow we get the fed minutes. maybe we'll get something out of there, but the interest rate story, that seems to be still the biggest drag for the markets and for consumers in particular, consumer activity. i was looking at fed funds futures. it is 30% chance we'll get a rate cut come march. look these numbers change. these are the traders. i realize that's not what you do, but at the same time, you

really, i think we're looking ahead to that moment where the fed pauses, then they start to cut. because that means that mortgage rates come down. we're off of eight-year 30-year fixed mortgage rates. we're coming back to our borrowing can start to churn out again. what do you expect? >> yeah. interesting, we've had almost historic spread between the prevailing interest rate on mortgages at 7.75% but the average outstanding rate for mortgages for people with fixed-rate mortgages is 3.25%. homeowners are at a fixed-rate of 3.75, but challenging to get a new mortgage at 7.75. we like to follow the fundamentals. fundamentals suggest homeowners are fairly december shape. job gains okay. wage gains okay. we look at those i had yo sin idiosyncratic areas where non-agency mortgage-backed

securities, mortgages not guaranteed by government agencies. that is key contributor for clients so far in 2023. cheryl: one of the things we came into 2023 talking about was the commercial real estate market. there is a great piece in the journal this morning many owners of these large buildings they can't even make their payments right now. we expected these defaults. i had david kelly from jpmorgan earlier, we were talking off-camera about it. he goes. this isn't 2008. you don't have all the investment vehicles sitting on top of the mortgages like we did in 2008. what you have now is you do have kind of a slow slog but an expected slow fall when it comes to these mortgages. do you think that, in the commercial side there is kind of a, i guess space for a reprieve if you will, that we're not going to have that kind of catastrophe that we thought we would in commercial real estate?

>> yeah. commercial real estate particularly the retail, office sites, still remain as variable for 2024. back to work is still fluid for a lot of companies and so i think that remains one of the key variables for 2024 but you have got other areas of strength within commercial real estate where, on industrial side or self-storage or student housing. so you have got various areas within commercial real estate are pockets of strength and still challenges remaining that still need to be worked out but to date it hasn't manifested in broader -- cheryl: that's good. >> across financial services. so far it has been okay. cheryl: tom hain lynn, thank you so much. [closing bell rings] cheryl: we have zoom ceo, and will join liz right here. that is it for me. "kudlow" now. david: hello, everyone, welcome to a special edition o