more. in 2024 a new forbes poll found the n new year's resolution is improving finance and a few spots -- fitness and and a few spots below and most gyms in a few members within six months and in fact, most resolutions overall fizzle out after just three months and only 6% of people still stick with them. but remember if you ditch your fitness goal, make sure to cancel your jim membership because that's cost americans on average about # $52 a month. save the money. all right, that will do it for us. thank you for watching. have a happy and safe new year. good luck with your resolutions. ♪

>> welcome to special new year's edition of barron's round table, i'm jack otter. inflation is falling but above the fed's target and rate cuts are expected in the new year and stocks are rallying while the bond market got hammered and then turned around recently. this week we'll look back on the year that was and tell you how to best position yourself for the year ahead. first, each of our panelists has an investment idea they're glad they shared this year and one to flat out avoid it. we'll tell you what they were. investment strategist is seeing opportunity heading into the new year. later round table offering promising 2024 investment ideas to consider it. we're finally taking a look into the crystal ball with predictions about what's next for the economy and highly anticipated presidential election and more. on the barron's round table, ben

levinson, al root and al as you well know, barron doing something well in the world of financial journalism and publish a score card and good and bad and ugly of stock picks and with that spirit, talk about a few things we did well and not well on the show. take one idea back from 2023, what would that be? >> we wrote a space cover in may adam clark and recommended shares of startup stocks and two rocket lab usa like a mini spacex and planet labs and it has earth imaging business and rocket lab rose 13% and trailed s&p by 4 percentage and plant lab fell. in my eagerness to invest in cool things, we may not have recommended the best stocks in a rising interest rate firearm. >> another mantra is never try to catch a falling knife but you

did so with tesla and caught it. >> it's interesting with a falling knife. in 2022, tesla stock was down and only fallen twice out of the entire history since 2010 ipo. and it is a leader in electric folks and hard to separate what's going on with elon and tesla and at $100 in early january, this is a good buy. we wanted, you know, $150, $1 p 5 and now it's $200 because tesla never does what you expect. when fear at the maximum point we love it. >> real quick, what do you do now, $250? >> i'm not and never will be a tesla smarter and leading company in a growing segment of an exciting business.

if you love elon, a little more and if you don't, a little less. >> what's a mulligan? >> it'll be pay and will stock looked cheap and keeps getting cheaper and trading around 11 types earning ands thinking the turn around was going to happen faster and there's a valuation like a bank and high flying

intin if he can and what was rewarded in >> yeah, lululemon belongs in a handful of stocks and nike and netflix and every once in a while with lulu, the market will overreact and soar from there. lulu is a retailer and sells workout pants but i'm bullish on it. look for a dip. >> ben, 2023 regret? >> why too bearish and stock market got harmed in 2022 and would get hit in 2023 and looking back at dot come bubble and thinking it's going to be the same kind of thing. it wasn't. i missed a great buying opportunity and a few months at end of 2023.

i did and barrons we recognized we were too bearish and went bullish in june and missed upside and didn't miss all of it and had a nice return from that story and it, think of what jack howl said and the markets usually goes up and now you can't be too bearish for too long and expect the financial crisis. >> going up. >> value stocks are the name of the game going into the new year and investment strategist is here to suggest some big changes to your portfolio right after this. sofi is helping me get my money right to achieve my ambitions. want to see? (♪) like saving for the ultimate tailgate setup. with sofi checking and savings, i pay no account fees, and earn a competitive apy.

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>> stocks had a strong run but my next guest said the big gains in the coming years and joining

me now is cambria investment manager and cofounder and chief investment major med favor. >> happy holidays. great to be here. >> this is the time of year for pre-dibs and it's only fair for me to acknowledge that predictions about the direction of the stock market have a spotty track record at best, but one of the few reliable indicators is starting valuation. by the measure, how do we stand heading into 2024? >> huddling around with your family in the new year, you should clink a glass of champagne and celebrate not just this great year in markets nor 2022, but really it's been an absolute monster run for u.s. is to bees all the way back to the global financial crisis. lookerring at stocks over this period, we like to look at ten year trailing returns.

this is one of four periods in history where stocks are compounded at over s15% per yead other three have names and aaron rodgers and roberting 20s and nifty 50s and the bubble was my favorite and calling the recent period with covid stock era. but also take a step back and choose your family and say this isn't necessarily normal. the good times don't always last and after the good times it comes to hangover and had the great depression and inflationary pressure and internal bubble burst and financial crisis too and what comes next. doesn't have to be something bad and on average broad market cap with u.s. stocks are expensive and not as bad as a couple years ago but we'd expect muted returns for the broad market and that's the bad news. good news is there's plenty of places to invest other than market cap, s&p 500.

>> for starters, we should go on twitter and fun in there and roaring 20s and nifty fifties and not quite old enough to have remembered those times well enough and dot come bubble around and interesting thing about that period and for awhile, nasdaq was getting thrashed and coming years what do you see as the opportunities that might do well? >> yeah, very similar to the late 90s and early 2000s after the global period and 2000, 2003 small cap market outperformed for 150 percentage points and feels familiar and recently small caps massively underperformed and large cap and on average value has not done great this entire psychoand will we think that changed in 2021, 2022, 2021 was actually worse than 1999 for value stocks,

which is crazy, cheaper versus expensive and setting the stage for massive opportunity and we like to focus on shareholder yield and companies paying out cash dividends as well as buying back their stock, they're trading cheap and not doing the bunch of debt and high quality stocks. these stocks can be found for single digit pe ratios and on average they have a double digit shareholder yield. that's looking at cash dividends plus the buy backs in the u.s. majority bye backs and a -- buy backs and fopped that does this and three biggest sectors are energy, materials and industrials. this portfolio we think is at a much better position and high cash flow stocks for the next not just year and three, five, ten years. >> past 15 year period, you're talking about the mantra of supporting to diversify internationally and not a great place and it's finished in the place to be. do you see a catalyst that's going to change that.

still growth is better in the u.s. and going for the world and inflation is lower and believe it or not, much in the developed world, what's the catalyst we mean investors overseas will see decent returns. >> there's a couple. obviously a little more obvious in retrospect but if we talk about nobody caring about small cap, certainly no one cares about foreign investing and really no one cares about emerging market investing. they've done horribly compared to the u.s. since 2009 and on average, it's a coin flip and 50/50 better than any given year and same statements i made about u.s. small cap and shareholder yield applying for foreign and emerging and fyld and eyld funds, there's single digit pe ratios and it's driven by tech

and the mag seven and look at emerging markets and that's our number one sector and people say that's strange for a value fund and that's because a lot of emerging markets are beaten up so bad for the past 10, 15 years and find a lot of similar companies and stocks but it massive valuation discounts on the market and going over the point for the catalyst and it's a good time to get travel in, americans, if you want to go to japan, going to the lowest levels and really long time and we expect that to be a head wind for the u.s. dollar versus a tail wind and the past cycle. >> have a happy new year yourself. >> as well to you.

>> thanks. ring in the new year with brand new investments in your portfolio and each panelist sharing ideas for financial success. next. only sleep number smart beds let you each choose your individual firmness and comfort. your sleep number setting. and actively cools and warms up to 13 degrees on either side. the queen sleep number® c2 smart bed is now only $990. plus, no interest until january 2027. ends monday. only at sleep number.

>> each expert panelist has an idea to consider heading into 2024. we heard from mew favor that what worked in previous years may not be the place to be in the coming year, do you agree? >> yea, thinking of outperforming the s&p 500 and the magnificent seven.

it's like revenge of the nerds and 28% of the total market cap in the equal weight is less than 2%. gains year-to-date, magnificent 7 more than 100% on average and the rest of the s&p 500 and average gains 16%. 30% of the 497 are down and magnificent seven entered 23 trading 18 times foreign earning ands trading 300 times foreign earning ands the rsp has underperformed the s&p 500 and equal weight underperformed s&p 500 by just about as bad as its ever been looking back to 2008. if something can't go on forever, it won't. there's got to be value in those other names. >> quickly, equal weight of s&p 500 simply means you own every stock in the same proportion and number 500 is the same as apple at the top and you get more expose uroto some smaller companies. i get the argument but if you

look at magnificent seven and some of the magnificent seven was growing faster than that. >> it was a great point and adjust for growth and priced to earning ands growth shift and investor favors and nvidia was cheap and it's a function of investor having a tough time seeing the stock up 200% or plus 200% and it's still worth more and definitely miss it had and it was 6, 7 months ago and maybe nvidia doesn't get the credit it deserves and doesn't mean the rest of 497 is not good value there. >> going to make the case for gold? >> yeah, gold is for the apocalypse and that comes and you want food and water and things like that. you want gold when the fed is too loose in terms of monetary policy and that is a possibility of this year and really does

start to cut and inflation is not changing yet and gold is a great place to be. the fed may have tightened too much and may be good for gold too and recession and i'm looking at gold here and it's gone up very close to its record high on a price basis but i think there's room to actually make a run at all time high on inflation adjusted basis taking it up into the 3,000s. >> gold or gold miners, what's the better play? >> you tell me. >> i like the miners and i feel like companies make capital allocation decisions and gold is a metal. >> the metal has been strong and the company has not and concern about innation and you could see the companies do quite well. >> one word answer here, gold in any opinion actually the numbers say it's not been a very good long term investment. so do you see this as a trade ore permanent oh allocation? >> gold is a terrible long term investment and this is a trade.

>> carlton, interest rates shoot higher and shooting higher interest rates and that hurts banks. where are we now? >> i like banks into 2024 and weakness in 023 because of the -- 2023 because of interest rate phenomenas and rates looking to be lower and banks balance sheets will be stronger and not sitting on hefty unrelied losses in the end of the year and not in caseases of $500 billion and rates can earn obstructing cerumen the assets and other banks with stories turning around and playing something like the regional bank index and playing like a dolled man sax and morgan stanley with deals in 2024 and citi group is

a storied stock in the midst of a turn around. >> ticker symbol? >> kre. >> each of your opinions on the best performing asset class in 2023. bitcoin up 163%. i'm skeptical and can't explain it. >> 1% allocation is impressive. al, you convinced in >> i'll take the reasonable side and don't get bitcoin or crypto. bitcoin makes sense but to his point, not more than 5%. >> carlton. >> i don't care. i'm tired of bitcoin. it's been trying to happen for 5 years now and it's not. the price moves up, the price moves down. we don't know why. sometime stypes it's correlated to the market and sometimes it's not.

maybe you miss out on upside but skip it. >> ben. >> i love it for trading and only on technicals and only when moving up. go ahead and buy it. otherwise stay away. >> listen to be bullish and getting etn and trillions moving along. next, panelists look into crystal balls and share new year's predictions beyond where to poult your money.me stay right there. s of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay. hi, i'll have the avocado toast...

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>> all right, time to hear pre-dibses and barrons is no different. i will start with you, ben, 2024. what are you looking at? >> the election. we know presidential election years are tough for the stock market till you get to around

november or closer to november when we know the results. i think this one is going to be particularly difficult for the market to grapple with. we can see a lot of volatility from now till november. >> think nikki haley will beat biden? >> no comment. >> al, looking as al does at the electric vehicle market. >> no, marges. >> too much cars for al. we'll go mortgage rate. 0-yearlong rate -- 30-year mortgage rate and finishing at 5% and me saying the normalization process of covid continues before the pandemic mortgages 5%, 4% and got all the way under 3% and hit 8% in october and they're down to 7 as the fed cuts and things normalize and 5% lustenning up the housing market. >> that's good news for people shopping for the housing market. >> great news for people shopping for the electric car. >> that's a lux one.

>> portability. >> carlton. >> i don't want this mistaken for bearishness but the market is too bullish on the economy going into 2024. everyone's expecting that -- to be rate cuts and it should be just do returns but one strike that just put it, fed doesn't cut rates to be magnanimous or nice, they're doing it because they expect that they're going to see weakness in the economy. that's probably going to play out at some point in the new year and not dire and not catastrophic or anything like that. when the fed is cutting, it's -- we might see issues with employment or other indicators and weakness. be careful out there. >> thanks, guys. happy new year and, ben, happy birthday. >> thank you. >> to read more of this week's edition of barron.com, follow us on x@barron.com and that's it for us. happy new year and see you in 2024 on barron's round table. get on the ground! john brown comes for you?