the standard time act was signed by woodrow wilson help helping americans save energy, let them take advantage of daylight hours. 1784, titled and economical project. the dow was turned around up 46 points, the nasdaq down 200. the 10 year treasury yield making news this morning, yield is going up. gold is above to grander announce. bitcoin is the star of the morning, $45,378. that is it for "varney and company". coast-to-coast starts now.

neil: nasdaq or nas duck? i've been waiting to use that one. the new year, not looking exactly like the old year. tech stocks taking it on the -- magnificent but keep in mind the nasdaq, 44%, more than $1 trillion in value. maybe this is profit-taking to kickoff the trading year. on the floor of the stock exchange, happy new year to you. the first day at trading. are you worried? >> i think you mentioned nasdaq up 40%. %. the nasdaq 100, smaller group of stocks, up 56%. i would expect there was a lot

of trading/investing, people in the market that didn't want to book taxable gains in the first half of the year and some of that selling is i suspect coming from that group of investors. neil: normally a presidential election year is good for the markets, all the more if you just came off a good year. the trend is the friend, he was bullish when a few people were. he sees it continuing, the blue market is still relatively young, what do you make of this? >> i think he is really on target with a lot of things he mentioned in an article or op-ed piece in one of the publications over the weekend.

he has got a great historical perspective that goes back decades. obviously very successful at his business model. i don't think there is a tremendous amount of froth in the market. clearly we barely start to scratch ipo activity last year and there just aren't the signs that were very happy other than the fact we had a very strong move in the market to close the year with the dow, s&p and nasdaq all having nine straight weeks of gains. and it wouldn't be out of character to see a pullback. neil: one thing you are good at is looking at the big picture.

the big picture, the fed is done raising rates, it will start three rate cuts, the markets indicate more. maybe as soon as march, are you in the camp that says as soon as march they are cutting rates? >> march would be the earliest rate cut we see. if it is not march, it is may or april, the first half of the year. projections of 4 to 6 might be aggressive for the entire calendar year. i'm in the three camp. neil: a lot of people looking at how they frame what it does. the rate cut done according point at a time but what if the fed is signaling its worry that the economy is slowing down too much, news out of these big

airlines like delta likely hiring fewer pilots. a sign of things slowing down and maybe worse? >> one of the other things that can fisher mentioned, he does not forecast a recession next year. the economy can slow down. 5% gdp in q3. we will slow from that level. we can slow down a little bit without having a recession or a significant economic pool back. i know there's warning signs out there. some people are always concerned about the debt and the deficit. that just isn't enough of a stumbling block to get in the way of a market that has a lot

of other healthy indicators. neil: appreciate your insight. fair and balanced, a bear in all of this. larry glaser, a phenomenon that is bitcoin. $46,000 coin level, i always think when i look at bitcoin, it is a rogue investment. a little like gold, goes the other way. how do uss what is going on with bitcoin and crypto investments in general? >> remarkable year, how well certain sectors like bitcoin in 2,023, how people got that right, analysts calling for a recession. and crypto you have two categories, the believers and nonbelievers. the believers never have any

doubt. they knew this was the answer. get away from the government, democratize money, less government control. we will make it more accessible, more available, lower cost or etf and have this in a structured that's less -- for the nonbelievers, washington and wall street couldn't figure out how to control it. they didn't regulate it. that may change. nonbelievers may become believers. wall street loves and etf. they could control this to greater heights in the years ahead. whether you believe it or not we should remain humble and recognize life is not perfect. this was not the inflation hedge we thought it was going to be. it would be value for segments of the market and easier to invest whether you like it or not. neil: as a vehicle to trade this stuff it would be a game changer. i don't know if you're in the

that says this goes to $500,000 coin it. one trader out there saying enough. so how do you play this as an investment? you always remind me this is not for the faint of heart, very volatile, don't they could your retirement or your kids college money, depends how you like it. having said that, it is volatile. how do you play it? >> it appeals to a different generation of investor. gold appealed to a certain generation of investor. it was a store of value for them. it had no yields like bitcoin. we know that a lot of the haters who didn't like bitcoin couldn't expand it, they couldn't make money. when we recognize it going forward, wall street has given people little reason to have confidence in washington's ability to regulate finances, take care of our debt and bitcoin is expression of a lack

of confidence in washington's ability to control our collective finances. people look for alternatives to that with elections coming up, it may be more discontent, more anxiety. dealing with difficult issues of the day bitcoin becomes an extension of that. this is a place you can go to get away from the craziness of washington, the sausage making. for better or worse, that's how it is seen by different generation of investor. we should listen to it, recognize it and try to learn from it. neil: larry glaser. i love having peter on, has a dim view of the markets but he turns this market, stock market editor and publisher with that scary voice. i would use it to take phone calls. always good to see you. how do you like what you are seeing, to keep this party

going it will keep going. what do you say? >> neil, neil, neil, i will tell you, first of all, happy new year to you and yours and hope we have a happy, prosperous coming new year. here's what i see. we are in terms of long-term cycles we have security prices believe it or not, the dow jones industrial average did not institute until 1897 the terms of the formal tgi a but we have security prices thanks to the foundation for the study of cycles going back a few hundred years back to 1789. as i look at that chart it is in front of me now. i can see two areas, very major drops that occurred in 1835. i would think you or i

remembers that one. they occurred in 1929, hopefully neither of us remembers that. i remember the history of it. in 1929 the dow jones industrial average declined 90% and did not recover its 1929 highs until a quarter-century later. two of the biggest tops in market history occurred 94 years apart, 1835, 1929, fast forward four years, 2023. don't get me wrong. if we had three or four iterations of the cycle, this has been like clockwork. there's only one iteration from 1835 to 1929 but the fact that that occurred and at the tip of

that 94 year period when the market in terms of so many valuation measures such as price, how about dividend yield on the s&p 500. the old market master said 3% dividend yield was a danger sign for the overall market because the competition in terms of that, 3% dividend yield has been surpassed. for so long now, no one can remember it but the dividend yield of the s&p, it was 44%. the last time the market was undervalued was in 1982 when the s&p 500 itself was yielding 6.7%. that's the last time the market was truly undervalued.

one thing about long-term periods, it comes to almost the same with pollution. the two most important bottoms in the market that occurred after the highs i just mentioned, 1835-1929 occurred in 1842-1932. if you put those together, you are talking about a 90 year projection. one of the other things, george lindsay, past market master said important market tops usually occur the same distance away from an important market bottom as the previous market bottom. 1842-1932-forward 90 more years you come to 2022 so we have two very different long-term

measurements telling us that we are in that sweet spot 2022-2023. maybe i should call a sour spot rather than a sweet spot where you can expect to see the possibility of a very important market drop. stuart: this is a rich market a little ahead of itself. how much, would you be looking at? >> a lot ahead of itself to the point where if you look at all kinds of valuation measurements, my favorite valuation measurements are the ones where john says that we are now in one of the three most overvalued markets in history and his valuation measurements are calling, shouldn't say they are calling for it.

the possibility of a 70% decline in the market. in order to get back -- neil: 60% 80% decline, you are -- earnings are going to catch up with what impreza stock performances, you are not buying that? >> i'm not buying that because no matter what, no matter what, even looking forward to an increase in earnings, it's been pretty good so far, visibly if we take a look at those fundamentals, you can look at them and say the market looks pretty good. it is not complete. the p/e ratio is a little high. i think we are setting up for another big move to the upside for all time highs, let me tell you this technical fact, the dow jones industrial average

just hit a new all-time high. while that was occurring, the decline line of the stock exchange, you can also for row in the russell 2000, the secondary stocks have just now in this rally recovered around 50% of their decline from the 2,020 one-22 top to the october/december 2022 bottom. they are up 50% with the dow at a new all-time high. that is usually a very dangerous situation for the market. you want market breadth to be confirming new highs in the market and it is not only far from doing that but it recovered 50%, the complete decline that we saw. neil: i am sorry to jump on you but you want everyone going along for the ride to tell you it is a safe ride you have doubts on.

>> it's not a subjective thing. these are requirements by the market in order to continue. you need to see the troops catching up with the generals and they are far far distant from that deal. the market is in this precarious situation. very short-term, we see the nasdaq 100 down significantly today. a lot of times the first few days of the year, i wouldn't say that is your top and straight down from here. we need to watch the positive seasonality continuing on january 6th. what happens after that will become important. neil: good news or not,

appreciate it. happy new year. neil: i want you to hear from the bulls and bears, that kind of thing. running with one opinion or run with another. to hear the mall and decide for yourself it is your money. we have a lot more coming up, on something that can affect your money. one of them has to do with iran having a warship. and and that oil, after that. >>

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neil: i'm intrigued by financial markets respond to a complete scary political development and that is iran sending a warship into the red sea. initially oil prices jumped on that news with indications that this could be a preview of coming volatile attractions. jennifer griffin with more on this and why the prices are going all the way.

they don't seem shattered by this, they seem to be stepping back from this. what the significance? >> it's very significant to send a warship, this is an escalation. are lies at the pentagon have been on the red sea as the pentagon reopens for the new year holiday. there was no break over the holiday, dramatic escalation and attacks from houthi fighters caused shipping conglomerates to reroute their ships and stop using the red sea which is bound to add to consumer prices. the danish shipping group maersk issued the following statement, in cases where it may smoke cents for our customers, vessels will be rerouted and continue d their journey around the cape of good hope. we will continue to track our cargo movement through the red sea as we assess the constantly evolving situation.

the latest development involves iran sending a navy forget into the red sea equipped with more cruise missiles. iran's navy has been acquiring cruise missiles with ranges of 600 miles along with helicopters. early sunday u.s. navy helicopters found themselves in a firefight with houthi gunmen on board four small vessels attempting to hijack a maersk singapore flag denmark own shipping container. the u.s. navy responded to the distress call and when the houthis fired on the attack helicopters, the crews sank three of the houthi vessels killing an estimated 10 houthi fighters. the us attack helicopters launched from the uss eisenhower and the first time the us has killed houthis in the red sea since attacks began in november. maersk postponed the operations in the red sea and we learned the german shipping company announced its vessels will

avoid transiting through the red sea and go by the cape of good hope before reassessing. the us comes under attack in a rack and syria with us forces since friday, bringing the total to one hundred 50 attacks by iranian proxies since october 17th. tomorrow marks the fourth anniversary of the us assassination of the revolutionary guard commander general soleimani. proxy groups vowed to mark the day with more tax on us forces. neil: other news to pass along. i want to make sure i have this right. hamas is saying is deputy head has been killed in a blast in the lebanese capital of beirut. two others, hezbollah's tv station is saying one of the founders of hamas's military, they are not identifying,

israeli officials have yet to comment. on the house armed services committee, the guy you want to talk to. hamas officials are finding and seeking him out and taking him out. >> first thing i want to point out is none of this is a singular issue. these are all interlinked. the geopolitical alignment with china, russia, iran, and north korea going after three key areas. one is economic, one is supply-chain and when his military. china utilizing iran, and hamas launched an attack, hezbollah rebels coming in out of lebanon, whether it is the houthis who are trying to disrupt commerce, trade and launch attacks, these are attempts to attack shipping

lanes. as you mentioned, 12% of all global trade travel through the red sea. if you think about china's goal, eurasian expansion, domination of africa, and oceania. they want to control what goes in and out of the red sea, black sea, persian gulf and horn of africa cutting off western hemisphere supply chain and economic coercion of panama and honduras will impact trade, tariff increases that limit the amount that comes through. look what occurred with bricks as well, the kingdom of saudi arabia and other natures are joining a large quadrilateral agreement between brazil, russia, india, and china and south africa, that would allow larger trade. not impacting western hemisphere involvement but bolster what they have there. this is a bigger issue than a military lament but economic resource and cyber-based

warfare, and we must be more vigilant and get control of our own supply-chain. neil: what do you think iran is -- in the red sea, indications more could follow? >> as you noted december 31st the first time a u.s. navy had any direct actions against houthi rebels by seeking those vessels, now you have this uranian destroyer moving in, part of which will be intimidation but also potentially disrupt the internationally recommended transit core door that does go by yemen and into the red sea. this could lead to further disruption of commerce which cuts off supply chains to the united states and other western areas. neil: real quickly on what's going on in israel in parts of gaza, in a heightened battle going forward, don't know where

the strategy goes now but your thoughts? >> the idf will clear out gaza. we know hamas is a terrorist organization backed by iran. the biden administration chose to delist the houthi rebels, they are a terrorist organization. as is the organizations attacking hezbollah and iraq and others. i support the idf's ability to defend itself. should eliminate the hamas terrorist organization. they should be allowed to go ahead and live in safety and prosperity among the palestinians and israelis in the area. neil: have a happy new year. you serve this country with great just tension and honor. in the meantime just letting you will little more about the israelis taking out this hamas top leader. that leader's a top deputy, two leaders of his group in his armed entourage were taking out

with him. we don't know more than that. is real isn't commenting one way or the other but this brings to six the number of hamas officials who met their fate and more are being targeted as we speak. in the meantime, waiting for the names of all those who might have had a relationship or business relationship with the late sex offender jeffrey epstein. you heard one name in particular but there are 169 others including big business titans who would also be on that list after this. tle marzi! [ laughs ] oh, my daughter gives the best hugs! we're just passing through on our way to the jazz jamboree. [ imitates trumpet playing ] and we wanted to thank america's number-one motorcycle insurer -for saving us money. -thank you. [ laughs ] mara, your parents are -- exactly like me? i know, right? well, cherish your friends and loved ones.

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businesses that grow grow with shopify. neil: sometime today we might know the names of those who associated with jeffrey epstein who killed himself in prison. we you heard of bill clinton associated with them, 169 others including other business titans.

that does not mean all the way to bill clinton that they had anything nefarious in that relationship but we will get the details. charlie gasparino on what you can expect. charles: i interviewed jeffrey epstein right before he died. i believe he killed himself. when i interviewed him i was rushing to do a hit with you and he called. we started a series of conversations. then as a series of conversations, he was not indicted but was on the verge of it with these stories in the miami herald. one of the interesting things he said to me, i know of you because i used to work at bear

stearns which he did. the late ceo of bear stearns was a source of mine. and much of this is written. a lot of people used to call me a friend, powerful people, reminds me how i got his phone number and people are freaking out on wall street. i was doing the story that was going to say he was not a government witness. there was a mean going out there that he got a lighter sentence, helped them prosecute stuff on the two bear stearns hedge fund managers, initial targets of the post-financial crisis crackdown. i went and had a talk to epstein.

in manhattan, two rich and powerful people, one thing, got to get in touch with epstein, one guy, a billionaire, household name on wall street, pools up his phone. here is his number. i called him. next day -- called him before hand. i am not going to say this guy's name. i'm sure he was not involved but this guy is a billionaire. he runs a massive multibillion-dollar business. he probably did business with jeffrey epstein. neil: a lot of people look at the girls, he had a knack with money.

charles: he wasn't a money manager. he was a broker. a guy that facilitated wealth for which people. neil: the tax implications. connell: charles: he was good at wealth management in terms -- what to put in the yacht, how to handle it, the art collection which is billionaires so all the stuff he was good at. when people criticize leon black for doing business with him, he was good at his job. neil: these other names don't necessarily mean anything. for them, to explain that relationship. charles: being associated with jeffrey epstein is horrible

stuff and did so much business on wall street, maybe not to jamie dimon, with all sorts of people. lauren: 20 how was he different from bernie madoff? charles: bernie madoff ripped people off. his crime, he stole money, said he was making returns, sam bankman freed, he didn't rip people off, he's a pervert, he got caught. what got me into the story before he died, or killing himself i should say, there was this thing going around, people couldn't understand why he got such a light sentence the first time, 13 months, most at a halfway house for child rape and it was a perplexing

question. the miami herald wrote that he was a government witness. i wrote the story that this is much more of a mystery. don't know how he got out other than if you talk to people like alan dershowitz, people who claimed stuff about him, didn't materialize. if they wanted to get to the bottom of who is doing business with him or paying him for girls, that the allegations, it won't be on this list. you have to go to bank records and they don't want to do that. we uncovered this. neil: individual to had some association. charles: if that guy's name is not on the list i will be surprised. stuart: adam: will be on top of that. the big story, rage anxiety for evs.

and a nightmare drive. what the heck? >> reporter: this is a flyover state. i'm going through indiana. instead of flying back to buy christmas in chicago i am driving back. somebody had the bright idea at fox business to do this. we will tell you how it is turning out in a second. day tuned. stay tuned.

>> welcome back to cavuto coast-to-coast.

somewhere on interstate 80, we thought it would be interesting when controversy around electric cars and range, we took tesla model- dagen: and drove from chicago to new york. we will see how long it takes us. took me a little time to turn it on yesterday. watch. didn't even tell you what to do with it. come on. any idea? smart alec. i trust things will go more smoothly. and they have a karaoke mode.

to more boring terrain. >> you had your get off my lawn moment. look forward to hearing more from that. you know where the car goes or had some options for how it started. right? i always look at 23 as the year a lot of people started questioning about this ev russia. >> reporter: towards the end of 2023 you heard from ford and gm they wanted to scale back on their investments. 4038 auto dealerships wrote a letter to president biden begging him to relax the ev mandates.

and it is already saturated, demand is therefore and there's a lot of reasons for that. batteries charging infrastructure. neil: taking a long time, 300, stop to charge it up. it will take time in making trips a lot longer. >> what do you do when you are sitting there for 45 or 60 minutes. >> you would be cheating, cheat mode. neil: not as if it is going away. there are beautiful cars, what is its future? >> i believe evs are the future. you have to let the free market, in the pace of adoption, not going to be 2 thirds, sold by 2022.

the on ramp might be 30 years out. a charging infrastructure in place, how are you going to get power to the charging station? not coming from wind or solar, you need nuclear which is more cost-effective than wind and solar, more reliable. got to build a bunch of nuclear power plants and people are against to that. neil: the chairman of toyota figure out hybrids might be, hybrids. >> seems like from gm and ford's perspective that is the direction they are heading right now. remains to be seen whether the administration is smart enough and aware enough for them to get rid of the 2 thirds of new vehicles by 2032 and meet in the middle and say they should be hybrids or back off from 2032.

neil: that very common sense. for the economy the markets this year, different. >> last year was a gift from god for everyone involved, this year will be more challenging. expansion won't do this year what it did last year. it has to be earnings growth. earnings expectations up 12% for next year up 12%. %. those are lofty but i still think without multiple expansion you can see 8% or 10% gain in the marketplace this year. neil: good seeing you again. national politics reporter, what he makes of the less than two weeks for the caucuses and after that in new hampshire this is real after this.

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neil: polls are not tightening, two weeks away, ohio, caucuses get things kicked off and rolling. the messenger, national politics. i always like to follow where

the money might be going, the interest, continues to follow her and what it could mean in iowa. your thoughts? >> it means there will be a lot of ad spending the next few weeks. they already had one hundred million dollars in digital and radio ads, a huge amount of money in a primary continuing until caucus, what you can expect, nikki haley received some port from money interests, over the last few months, we won't no, and you hinted at this in the opening. a battle for second place, donald trump has an enormous lead in iowa, large lead in new hampshire and the states are different in many regards. but what's going to be proven in those states once voters take to the caucuses or the

polls will be different as well. ron desantis has a moment to prove he can finish second at a time when nikki haley is surging and in new hampshire that is where you've seen nikki haley bear out, polling showed her growing as desantis falls. you have different questions to answer, both of those early states and a commanding lead in both of these protests. neil: at least the prior three winters going back to 2012 he went on to lose and not get the nomination. i wonder what we make of that? >> it to different election, you've got a former president who was ousted from office come back and run again, it's not going to be a whole new set of standards given what we have, who wins iowa may not be the nomination, donald trump has a command on base that no other

republican has and that's barren out in polls and once january is over and you see the resulting these states come it will likely bear out as well. neil: thank you very much, national politics reporter, apple stock careening, doubling at its highest level. enefits. more growth. when you realize you can give your people everything, and more. thank you very much. [applause] ask, "now what?" here's what. you go with prudential to protect, empower and grow. with everything you need to deliver, you guessed it... more. one more thing... who's your rock? learn more at prudential.com

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