progressive movements leading us into the first war. is my history correct? stuart: that's good. mark tepper? >> going with fdr based on social security and things like that. stuart: i go with fdr, he introduced so many new things. look at this. we got it right. fdr. he signed over 3700 executive orders during his 12 years in office, averaging 300 orders per year. modern presidents, trump or biden, don't issue anything like that number. >> pretty heavy in the first 90 days of president biden. stuart: we are almost out of time. coast-to-coast starts now.

neil: stocks having a rough go, higher rates not helping in and out of 4% but that is not the money we are following right now. more the ridiculous amount of money nikki haley is raising, another $24 million. that's more than double third-quarter overall and triple what she took during the second quarter. that is a lot of money in the latest sign of momentum as well. the ohio caucus is 12 days away. a lot of questions about changing the political calculus, moving up in iowa and new hampshire but still polling far behind donald trump in both states. lost to follow, to richardson who is doing that. >> reporter: when you look at that, nikki haley in new hampshire a couple weeks after iowa. other candidates running around iowa, the first two early states with the backdrop of donald trump and his legal

issues. his team is expected to appeal to the supreme court, colorado's decision to keep them off the ballot, trump's attorney's petition state court main writing donald trump has agreed by the final order because the secretary was a biased decision maker who should have recused herself and made multiple errors of law and acted an arbitrary and capricious manner. main's secretary of state told the former president if eligible for the ballot, she says he engaged in an insurrection and violated the 14th amendment. >> i am mindful there is no precedent for secretary of state to deny ballot access to a presidential candidate, i'm also mindful no presidential candidate ever engaged in an insurrection. >> reporter: there are lawsuit in a dozen other states distract trump off the ballot using the same reasoning with, trump's republic and primary opponents of criticized erasing trump's names from primary ballots.

>> increasingly concerned this year that you see a system that has decided they are going to keep donald trump out of contention. i'm deeply disappointed by what i see and alarmed about it. >> reporter: ron desantis opposes removing trump from the ballot but maintains if a state kept one of trump's opponent off the ballot the former president would spite the football and cheer the decision. desantis and ramaswamy are campaigning and i will. you saw nikki haley in new hampshire and chris christie has a town hall tomorrow in new hampshire. neil: you covered it all. let's go to will mcgurn, former bush 43 speechwriter. get a message across. i am wondering, the leading republican candidates, donald trump right now, is it making

any inroads for them? or does it stay roughly the same? >> in terms of trump's eligibility? neil: gaining traction on donald trump? >> as we editorialized this is an in-kind contribution to donald trump's campaign. donald trump to varying degrees of legitimacy was always accused of upsetting norms, but this is just outrageous. the founding fathers, the constitution and our arrangement, the whole thing is to put these decisions in the people's hands. donald trump has not been found guilty of insurrection. it was clear by impeachment, a secretary of state, maine, can keep him off the ballot. i think it is outrageous. and prevents us from debating the issues. that's why it hurts the other republican candidates.

to debate trump himself. neil: where do you think this race would be without these blocks the former president has experienced, not the old cases, 90 indictments he's facing, smattering of charges but the latest move on the part of colorado and maine. some have argued this race would not be the runaway it is going by the polls had it not been for all of that. what do you think? >> your guess is as good as mine. we don't know what might have been but i think donald trump's decision not to appear in the debates among the republican candidates effectively marginalized to those the bates. they look like a sideshow because all the other candidates added together don't beat trump. i think that is only possible

because of the drumbeat on the left going after trump in these arbitrary i think unconstitutional ways has helped him. from the trump voter's point of view this is only a continuation of the administration when you had the fbi using a manufactured dossier to investigate his campaign. it has continued and distracting us and i think it hurt the other republican candidates. neil: there was pressure on two of those candidates, chris christie comes to mind him a vivek ramaswamy comes to mind, to drop out because there is no chance. the focus on nikki haley and ron desantis to duke it out on cnn next week, the same time donald trump will be in a town hall with martha maccallum. having said that i want you to

react, vivek ramaswamy justifies his campaign with me yesterday. tell us a little bit about what you are doing. you pulled ads out of iowa. might have gotten that incorrect but tell us where you are putting emphasis on that. >> the traditional media strategy is broken for candidates. the caucus about grassroots activation, we are going to voters in nontraditional ways. i'm doing things differently. that's why the polls are dramatically off. we are going to deliver a major surprise. i would call it a shock on january 15th. neil: shock on january 15th. >> i kind of doubt it. i think had the democrats not intervened, the rush around the candidates by democratic prosecutors or appointees to try to rigged the ballot for 2,024 i think trump would have

paid a price for not debating but i don't think he has because people see the games democrats are playing with the ballot and the interference they are running. a lot of mister ramaswamy is down in the polls, it would have to be a big shock to make a difference. neil: you've followed a few campaigns. i am curious what you make of the significance, two weeks away, a lot of folks will be there. that's me. let me get your take on how significant it is. the last three winners, republicans have gone on not to get the nomination. >> right. it is significant in this way. if someone were to defeat trump, that would be a big deal because it would be a signal that it can be defeated by it

presumably money, donations, support would flow to that candidate. i think if they come second, not so close second, i don't know what the future is. for a republican who wants to be the nominee, he or she has to defeat donald trump. no one has yet shown they can do it. may be they will in one of the first primaries coming up in iowa, new hampshire, but they haven't done so far. partly because they are rowing upstream. the democrats basically helping donald trump. neil: great catch, appreciate it. >> good to see you. stuart: neil: not such good news, sobering news, when you think we passed the third major milestone, three times we added another trillion dollars to the debt over the course of little

more than a year, it is sitting on a record $34 trillion. edward lawrence can't remember a time he had anything less than trillions of dollars. i remember when we were running surpluses. what do you make of this? what are you hearing? >> president biden going forward on his student loan forgiveness plan. it's costing taxpayers $32 billion, the president trying to get to $430 billion. he's making speech about spending the administration is doing when the president goes to south carolina, this milestone reminds us that we are all in the unsustainable fiscal path as the fed chairman likes to say, three months ago the federal debt was $33 trillion. the reason we got here, spending signed into law the last few years, the first two years of president biden going into office, tax money coming

in softer. both parties looking to have responsibility here, $6 trillion spending since president biden came to office, three of these packages had bipartisan support, two did not, tax revenues came in softer than the president's people forecasted. republicans want to cut spending, democrats want to keep the level of spending and raise money through irs enforcement and add other fees. listen to this. >> it is incredible. last year the economy grew by 2.4%. government spending growing by 4%. where is the growth in the private sector coming from? healthcare? who pays for healthcare? the government. >> reporter: john lansky is an economist, the responsible for federal budget says we are hopeful policymakers will take further measures to reduce our

borrowing by raising taxes, creating a space -- a fiscal commission by doing all of the above. no one i spoke to in the west wing or over the past several months had a hint that they would cut spending. neil: no signs of that. the senior policy director for responsible federal budget, so looking forward to seeing you. we never come close to anything approaching fiscal discipline. it is more than out of control. what do you think? >> we had a pretty good year that passed the physical response millionaire, a good year legislatively. we are swimming upstream and still have dramatic growth in the social security, medicare, medicaid revenue that has fallen short, spending another part of the budget. we been adding 10 billion a day to the debt over the last three months.

neil: when you get to these numbers it is not difficult to see trillion dollars sprints, milestones reached the way they have, three such milestones in the last year, looking at $6 trillion in added debt under president biden, $2 trillion added debt under donald trump or 8. 3 under barack obama, 6 trillion under george w. bush, it doesn't stop. it just doesn't stop. how do you slow it? >> completely bipartisan. we know -- will not stop adding to the debt but we need to slow it. look at healthcare. that is where democrats and republicans agree we can get more value at lower cost. we are going to make social security solvent. or run out of money in 10 years. we need to extend spending caps that are only in effect through next year and need more revenue than we are collecting today. neil: each party has its preferences. republicans would rather not be

raising taxes, they are not great at curtailing spending. democrats all for raising taxes, and where they find common ground, it is in the entitlements as much as that makes americans wins, the numbers are there. we have to slow their growth. that generally means cutting back on benefits, curtailing the increase in benefits, they are getting those benefits, raising social security, it is that. >> there is an opportunity in the healthcare space. actually paying hospitals more than the same procedure in a doctor's office and people from elizabeth warren to newt gingrich agree we need to put a end to it. there's opportunity in the healthcare space.

there is so much demagoguery on social security. president biden and donald trump said don't touch it? across the board cut ten years. neil: you are a young guy, when ronald reagan and tip o'neill got to get there, to shore up social security, through the grace commission, we had a bipartisan push to address a real problem. it's a crisis today but it is possible. >> i worked on two commissions. sometimes they work directly, sometimes indirectly. the best bet to getting fiscal house in order, ending social security and medicare, is a bipartisan commission. neil: something has to happen because we won't have any choice. looking at a $34 trillion

combination of all those deficits, all those years, that means a record. oil prices sprinting ahead, concerns what's going on in the middle east and widening conflict, when you get into the details quickly understand why we are seeing oil doing what it is doing after this. - i'm sherry - and i'm john. i'm a pharmacist. as we were starting to age, it's like, well how can we help our cognitive abilities? we saw prevagen. i did read the clinical study and went ahead and gave it a try. i feel that prevagen is helping me with overall clarity and as a pharmacist, i've recommended it to,

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adam: updated numbers on a targeted terrorist explosion, 200 reported killed in the air and after a moment to celebrate, uranian spymaster's home that happened four years to the day. middle east attacks by hamas, hezbollah getting involved. prices moving upon interest rates. trey yingst with the latest from southern israel. >> we are following developing news out of southeast iran where explosions rocked the

city earlier today killing -- this happened where there was a ceremony on going to mark the four year anniversary of the killing of uranian general soleimani. those explosions taking place before the cemetery, calling this a terrorist attack, with any specific country. the element out of iran coming into israel raising the possibility of retaliatory attack after a drone strike in beirut killed hamas's deputy chairman. aftermath video shows the side of that strike would damage a building and a car. media reporting six other hamas members, the leader of hamas made his first same at about the healing calling his deputy a martyr adding he joined those killed in gaza and during the october 7th massacre. new rocket fire from lebanon,

there hasn't been any large-scale response, israel remains on high alert. >> reporter: the idf is at a high level of readiness. in defense and offense. a high state of readiness. >> reporter: developing on the northern border come as operations continuing gaza. and explosive device on a tank and destroyed new hamas cells in gaza city taking them out with drone strikes. much of the concern comes as the leader of hezbollah is speaking as we talk, addressing the situation in the region daz there are concerns about a broader war. adam: a retired u.s. army colonel's thoughts, what do you make of the war in israel as it potentially looks

to widen? >> the war in israel, the idf is trying to keep it contained in gaza. there were thousands of reservists, brought them back into israel. there's an understanding that this war is going to go on for months into 2024, maybe 2025 and there may be another friend with lebanese hezbollah. they may need those reservists to plug in. the war is contained in gaza. a lot happening all around, it happens to be the fourth anniversary of the strike on general soleimani. you had the strike in beirut, you had lebanese hezbollah commander speaking today.

these things coming together at the last segment, maersk is not sending shipping containers through the red sea. maybe the single focal point is iran. neil: you laid it out brilliantly but the one thing, maersk was already talking about not coming back to the red sea so technically even before the houthi attack on us forces, this latest one despite an international force to protect vessels of all types in the area. so this hardened their resistance. none of the other 15 oil tanker concerns and shipping concerns that i know of indicated they will return so this has immeasurable economic impact. we might not see it right away but we will see it.

>> if you shut down i-95 tomorrow, all the trucks that carry commercial goods to the east coast would need to find another route. that would increase gas costs, increased tolls and time and the price for all of us. that is what is happening in the red sea. these ships have to go all the way around the cape of good hope. 7 to 10 days time of travel, increases gas costs, increases costs, total costs for transport. neil: when we go after houthi rebels and have taken out a few of them and of course ten times more of these attacks on us forces than us responses to those attacks. we will go after them in yemen, but carefully. certainly not iran.

i wonder what you make of that strategy, whether iran knows it. >> to be clear, we have not gone after them in yemen during this tit-for-tat since this war in gaza began. we've taken out three houthi ships, but that was a defensive measure. those three speedboats fired at a commercial shipping vessel, commercial shipping vessel signaled a call to the american forces in the region. and then, american aircraft took out those ships. it has been very defensive so far. we have in 2016, we fired on the coast of yemen and took out houthi gun batteries. we have that capability. we've not done that here. everything has been defensive. i feel like a certain point

we've got to go on offense to levels set here maybe to escalate, to co-opt the escalation ladder to gain escalation dominance. otherwise this thing will keep widening out. neil: you are exactly right. convey to you what i thought would be the obvious response. one thing to be leery of going into iran. it is another to go into yemen. i don't think that is as dangerous or risky or is it? >> it is not as dangerous or risky as firing onto a base in iran. it is something we've done. i'm not sure that would be enough because you think about iran has subcontracted all the fighting off of the houthis. look what they have caused. the houthis, this militia

group, most americans never heard of is holding the global economy at risk. that the situation for iran, none of their assets, i think we have to do something to escalate, up the escalation ladder to deter to threaten iran, to inflict pain. they do not believe they we have the will. neil: good talking to you, and honor. he knows what he speaks and what he is hearing now, something we should be fearing as well. all the flights of nervous quality circling around bitcoin and related crypto investments, when bitcoin was moving over

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visit singlecare.com and start saving today. neil: crypto not for the faint of heart. a few percentage points in a single day, that has been the rule of thumb but percolating yesterday but crossed $46,000 a coin, just around 43,042, and 800 and some change. the backdrop is etfs our

trading this, they cut the supply. the environment is promising if you have the stomach to deal with it. we asked john what he thinks of this, very good to have you. where are you? on just the volatility of an investment like this? not for the faint of heart. >> not for the faint of heart but neither is a text stock. bitcoin these days is 60%. there are plenty of tech stocks, more than 60%. as you said earlier it seems like 2024 should be a great year for this asset class. so many factors conflating to give it a positive backdrop. everywhere from macro to etfs, where i have good purview which is the underlying operating momentum. a software services company collaborating with companies to

deploy and use the block chain technology, adoption is really happening. neil: a lot of people can't see adoption. i get your point and understand, there are a lot of factors combining this particular year to see it happen but how do you explain a movement like today which is the opposite of yesterday and your right to point out tech stocks, that's routine behavior but explain it. >> today, there was an analyst who came out and said the sec will not be clearing these etfs as quickly as people are expecting. and ahead of the factor. and it shows and highlights, this is what happens with natural volatility of the

space. neil: etfs moving toward this investment. >> the only debate, the january 10th date, i would not bet against larry thing and mobilized things behind the scenes. and dollars to work anticipating this, what he is doing. neil: jamie dimon or jpmorgan chase badmouthed this thing. very good, thank you. we have a lot more coming up including apple. a tech wonder getting it into again. downgrading this, 4% down 4%

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why are force factor vitamins so popular at walmart? force factor uses the highest quality ingredients to deliver powerful, healthy results from delicious and convenient supplements. that's why friends and family recommend force factor. rush to walmart and unleash your potential with force factor. neil: last year was attributed beach. the last two trading days of this year we are finding out how tough it is but it is early going. we take a look at where we stand, susan. susan: not as happy a start of a market so far this year. after a surprising 2,023 best year for the nasdaq 100, in almost 1/4 century. some profit taking -taking

taking place. all three benchmarks down in the first two trading day of the year, oil prices backup, yields are higher despite traders, and in a few months time, because of budgeting tax harvesting and positioning, we tend to get a santa claus rally, the last five trading days of the year combined with the first two trading sessions, usually getting a bump of 1.3% over the last 7 days. the trend we've seen for 70 years but not working out in 2024 which historically if we don't get a santa claus rally a points to a bear market or dip to start the year, you combine the stocks cheaper later in the year, stocks are down because yields are back up. this is the and/yang action on the markets go we had 10 year treasury yields back about 4%

for the first time since early december, fourth straight day of gains. mortgage rates and other loan rates based on the 10 year yield and not the reserve rates. they have less money to spend elsewhere including in stocks. money coming out of the magnificent seven stocks, for 70%. microsoft, amazon, out -- 111%. nvidia, tripled meta more than doubled. in 2,024 apple was the main drag, worst in four months to start in 2024, a few analysts questioning innovation and growth. february, apple has seen revenue declines something we haven't seen in 20 years.

neil: thank you, happy new year to you and thank you again. a big response last time, a young guy, very young guy but if you go to his website, since he was 12 years old, actually quite an old guy. very good to have you. let me get your take on where we stand now. it has been a bumpy start to the new year. we can expect a lot of that but what do you expect? >> one of the most historic last 22 months of 2023, the s&p trickled its year to date. we are seeing profit-taking based on it is going to pivot. the fed did pivot in december but the market even more than the fed pivoted.

three rate cut in 2,024, markets seeing anywhere from 6 to 8 with one hundred 50 bits expected and right now we are seeing these fed expectations coming realigned this way, can't have double the rate cuts at the fed, fed members saying we need another rate hike. this morning we saw that and maybe fed chair powell's comments were taken too far, seeing yields, pressure on the risk on assets, it is warranted, something we've been publishing, we've got long treasury yields the last couple weeks and it will continue in january. neil: talking about basic points, the market turning 150% worth of cuts. and the market is getting ahead of itself.

maybe the fed will hint at that. the federal reserve president, speaking in raleigh, north carolina, we said there is no autopilot. he was saying it is time to buckle up. what do you think he meant? >> there' s clearly some internal division and the fed where some officials want to see rate cuts come quicker and some in the camp of maybe we can raise more and right now the market keeps wanting to know when rate cuts will start and he specifically speculating into march a couple months out, too far to advance and see what happens with inflation over the next couple readings and the fed manages market expectations.

and it was premature to talk about rate cuts. it feels like, in the dovish direction, and the average 30 year mortgage is down 130 basis points. that is what they are trying to do. neil: may be it will be proven right. anything housing related, and the us home construction, it doubled over the last year. what if the markets have it wrong? rate cuts are still coming but in the second half of the year. >> that is the situation.

the timing of rate cuts, it could begin in march or may but the quantity of rate cuts has moved too far too fast, three rate cuts, a big race case and if that is the case, we see higher costs of capital going into 2025, the cost of capital is permanently higher, the expectation that rates come back down and everything will be golden again and we are good to go. it's not just about getting rates down but where you find that long-term rate of interest rates, and their long-term target, made clear they are not going to change it to 3%. rates need to remain restrictive longer for core inflation still above 3 and we see a variety of head winds,

the fed keeping rates higher longer and it is worth noting the fed would rather keep rates higher longer than cut too soon. that would destroy consumer sentiment and damage reputation. neil: that has happened before. good seeing you again. happy new year. take a look at the border, migrant surge, the president weighing in to say it is republicans fault and he needs to give the money to do something about it after this. ♪ ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ( ♪ )

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>> president biden: got to do something. larry: to give me the money i need to protect the border. a lot of republicans were aghast at that. we've been demanding that for quite some time, democrats just as quick to say you just want

to play this game. the national border patrol council vice president, happy new year to you. the president throwing it back in republicans lap saying it's a funding issue and for more money this would all be solved. what do you think? >> coming from someone who has been here more than a few decades i can tell you this mess didn't get started as bad as it is now until they had been a straight and took office. that is when you saw the numbers go up. you saw the big groups coming across and it is sickening to see that even the individual to ask for more funding, cater to the individuals coming across and not necessarily so they can protect and have a law enforcement present. neil: that is what i thought was going on. the president summed up the

funding issue, throwing money at something, not dealing with border security or any of that and trying to help those or find a way to get those that are coming in is a different matter and that's where the two sides are really far apart. >> definitely. you see it from sanctuary cities where they said come one come all. now that they are faced with the reality of individuals coming into their cities now they say let's point the finger at who is doing law enforcement, moving individuals out of their state or border instead of pointing the finger in the direction of the administration saying you caused this mess. this is happening because you caused it and who is getting rich off of of it? the drug cartels, some thing else people don't realize, drug cartels get empowered because they realize this administration won't do anything to stop the flow. they are helping the flow and they are able to get other

resources to bring drugs controlled by the cartels and the administration doesn't do anything about it, they point the finger in the wrong direction. lauren: the we are not going to remotely solve this of this year, are we? >> we are not. this will not stop because this administration refuses to do something about it and even when shown the facts they pretend they don't exist. neil: this idea of spending more money on the border on security, what is the president talking about? >> honestly i have no idea, you don't see what actions have come out. we see them talk to other individuals and politicians from other countries but nothing has come out of it. it's let's continue to check the box and give this false hope that we are trying to do

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- it's done everything for us that we hoped it would do for us. - [narrator] call now to receive your free, no-obligation info kit. the kit shows you how to get you the cash you need using your home's equity with a reverse mortgage. find out how your home can start taking care of you. call the number on your screen. - the worry every single month to make that payment was gone. - our customers' homes are taking care of them, maybe your home could do the same for you. - [narrator] call aag, the country's number-one reverse mortgage lender and get your free info kit. call the number on your screen. neil: look who is back. taylor riggs