stuart: good questions, don't know. do you know which is the treasure state? lauren: i'm guessing oklahoma because i can't recall their license plate. stuart: i'm going to go with oregon. i don't know why. we got it wrong. montana, the state received the name because of its rich mineral reserve, the state motto is spanish -- you speak spanish? i believe that is gold and silver. was the pronunciation like? i got it. i got it. time is up for "varney and company" but if you hold your breath and wait 5 seconds you will get coast to coast. 3, 2, let's do it. julie: we are focusing on this

number, 6. 62, the rate on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. it did take a little bit from 6. 60 one but when we were in the round of 7. 5% and the trend could be potential borrowers friend and save years, but for the time being rate still holding, for those looking to purchase a home and others have been holding on are not selling their homes are more predisposed to do so, what does this mean for the housing front. happy to have you. let's go to the managing director of -- former fannie mae executive. i hope i am pronouncing it right. let's go first to what is going on with the housing industry, this keeps the rates kind of stable and they were kind of getting out of control a couple months ago, weren't they?

>> there are some eerie parallels, i will not say here you. parallels, 2,023-two thousand twenty four. each year started around 6% in terms of interest rates. in 2023 you saw a lot of activity off of rates going into 2,023, people still apprehensive but a lot of energy around purchasing, seemed like the last window, then rates went up 8%, volume dropped off halfway through the year, now you are looking at going into 2,024 with the same interest rates, a little higher but now the emphasis is toward declining interest rate environment. it is likely to go down so i think if you are a home seller or homebuyer great times ahead and if you are a homebuyer get ready. it's not getting better anytime soon. neil: harm -- more homeowners say the border is better, not like it was in the old days with 0% rates and properties

going up 10% at a clip but this might be as good as it gets for the time being. people putting their homes up for sale. good potential buyers play that out. >> inventories are up on a year-over-year basis especially when you see inventories up. mind you, half the historical average but up from 2023, you see the sales pace keep up with that. as new copies come on the market, sales keep up with that, that's evidence of a healthy market from supply and demand side and also evidence that there is more demand than supply by the fact that a lot of appreciation during covid, last year you saw 3 to 6% appreciation in home prices, you will probably see it again this year. neil: the year is still young but i really think more people when you pull from are more

interested in real estate news, that explains the distinction on so many different housing stats and home sales, housing starts, could this be housing's rebound year? a little early i grant you but what do you think? >> interest rates, affordability, prices are up, sales are up, volumes are up, discounts in terms of sellers discounting properties is going down. a lot of positive things but no doubt sellers are kind of in this predicament where a lot of them are locked in. 80% of homeowners have rates below 5%, 6% sounds -- neil: didn't know was that many. >> it is like 70%. a long way from seducing any homeowner with a 3% or 4% mortgage into refinancing. you will see more home sales transactions pickup, the aggregate demand for mortgages is going to be modest, 15%

higher than last year to account for the new home purchases but not so much in the refinance. neil: great seeing you, happy new year. edward lawrence at the white house, they treasure news like this, the kind forecast tim has, real estate is one thing, depreciating the last couple days but what do you make of what they are going to make of this? >> of the mortgage rates, the white house are hoping this has a ripple effect on the economy going forward. we hear the president starting to make that message that the economy is not as bad as you are seeing, that's the president's argument for this. people are saying we've seen prices go up a lot more than they have been. the president is going to be in campaign mode this week delivering a speech as he's intensifying the blame game on republicans for the woes happening in the house behind me, the president will go to

valley forge, pennsylvania where george washington put his revolutionary war headquarters for a campaign speech, the president using the january 6th storming of the us capitol is the reason he should be reelected, the biden campaign previewing in a speech in a new ad. >> president biden: something dangerous happened in america. there's an extremist movement the doesn't share the basic beliefs of our democracy. all of us are being asked what will we do to maintain our democracy. history is watching. >> polls showing the president's message is not resonating with groups of people who elected him in 2,020. new usa today suffolk university poll shows 63% of black voters support the president, he enjoyed 87% of the black vote in 2,020, among hispanic voters president biden trails the former president by 5 points. he won that demographic to to one.

>> it was always donald trump's fault. anything getting pushed back from mainstream media, it was january 6th. they try to bring this up all the time as the touchstone to say this is why the country is in terrible shape. >> we are hearing the blame game ramp-up now, we heard it in the white house briefing yesterday, likely to hear it again today, that everything is republicans or donald trump's fault from the debt crisis we are seeing to the immigration crisis. back to you. neil: talking to my staff who thoroughly enjoyed working with you over the holiday week. i was intending to take off another month but then i heard that and said i'm coming back so i will never give you that opportunity again. >> it helps when you write checks. neil: great seeing you again. you do seem like a nice guy. edward lawrence at the white house.

another nice guy joining us, bob, the white house is seizing on any good economic news it can find. the iron he is the american people are not buying it. that is the disconnect here. maybe this new ad campaign focusing on his predecessor in january 6th does the trick. nothing else seems to work. what do you think? >> this is a problem for the president and the democratic national committee, they are going to have to make substantial ground because they've lost the last couple months biden's poll numbers not that great but have gotten worse. the economy is key. january 6th is going to be played but most people won't be going to the ballots thinking about january 6th but the economy and that is why biden has lost support among minorities but also has a problem with israel and hamas, the younger generation. interesting to see how he plays this, does he try to shore up

his base which is crumbling right now or does he make the play for independence which was key to his win in 2020? neil: when we talk about poll numbers as low as jimmy carter was experiencing in that race, you got to wonder how can this president distinguish himself. you always hear he is well-liked personality but if i remember jimmy carter was admired personally and didn't do him much good. >> president biden in 2020 ran a very anti-trump campaign. this is going to be very different. i think his likability has gone down a bit. i think supporters of the president need to be cognizant of that. he's got to be the uncle that you like, not the angry grandpa. that is a key determinants, i think. likability, more people vote on personality than policy,

policies are important. neil: the possibility that we might not see presidential debates this year, say does donald trump and president biden, neither might jump at the chance to debate the other. that would take us back to 1972, last time we didn't have a debate. >> it is interesting because as you know, trump struggled in the first debate with biden, some say that's the reason he lost in 2020. at the same time i think he is chomping at the bit to debate biden but because he hasn't debated in primary debates there are some democrats saying he shouldn't debate trump, trump doesn't trust the commission, he things it is left of center so this is going to be fascinating. will we have three debates, no. at most we will have one. it is a big question whether we even get that one. neil: jimmy carter just one,

i'm sure carter regretted making that move because a lot of people who didn't know much about ronald reagan kind of liked the guy when they saw that debate. >> it also depends where the state of the race is. if trump does win the nomination and biden is down by 78 points, he's down overall and most polls, maybe that changes their thinking, we have to debate trump because we got to win and maybe trump backs off. it depends on where we are post labor day. jack: q very much. we want to pass along some confirmation of the terror attack in iran, the islamic state better known as isis is taking responsibility for those deadly bombings in iran. you might recall the attack killed close to 100 people at the time, we never got a number on that. taking a look at the killing of

a top terror uranian, that would be an interesting element, isis getting involved in terror attacks in iran, how things are expanding in the middle east beyond israel with this hamas threat, rebels attacking and counterattacking. it's not had any riveting effect so far on the markets. interest rates backed up a tad but the fact of the matter is this is now bigger than israel and gaza. after this. (bobby) my store and my design business? we're exploding. but my old internet, was not letting me run the show. so, we switched to verizon business internet. they have business grade internet, nationwide.

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neil: apple downgraded again. remember when berkeley said this has gotten a little top 5% and in a note to deteriorating conditions in china, this is realpressive. stock is falling an additional one. 3%. apple stands to lose right now with all of this going on $50 billion. keep in mind, $1 trillion in value last year so that is probably to be expected but it hasn't been a magnificent year. it is still early. you contract that as apple

takes it on the chin but this happens in reverse to the low flyers. just passing that along. looking at the impact of the epstein documents that have been released, names have been released. charlie gasparino did a great job stepping back, understanding the genesis of all this. what do you think of that. we know some of them but not others. charles: given the scope of his relationships on wall street, in politics and academia, harvard, running around, had an office at harvard. neil: he was quite the financial rainmaker. explained that. a lot of people don't know that. charles: i want to backup, this is hearsay. it is not in accord, not proven.

it is hearsay. some of it is bazaar. stephen hawking mentioned at an underage orgy. in this woke times that would be a saturday night live skit. it is bazaar. take it for what it is worth. what i know about jeffrey epstein, i have interviewed him, i know people he worked for. when jimmy was alive, the ceo, and others, he was excellent at the job of being a high net worth broker, he did it with -- his broker, the guy who created victoria's secret, i forget the name of the company that was bigger than that and did it for others, he was very close with the people at jpmorgan.

neil: people of a certain age don't know what he was before he was associated with the stuff but he was a rainmaker, he had a unique ability. what he knew of federal tax law. charles: he was a broker that could help you if you were rich, help you manage your estate meeting your artwork, your yacht, your money. he understood the tax law. he was south taught. according to jimmy, he had this weird side but before he was known for that, more than weird, illegal, disgusting, perverted side. before he was known for that he was also considered a renaissance man. he hung around with donald trump. bill clinton. neil: got to hang around with

this guy and others. what happens with this list? charles: if you are serious about busting this guy you don't go with this list, you go to jpmorgan where he did a lot of transactions post being released from jail. he went to bear stearns first, they went out of business, bear stearns was bought by jpmorgan, not because bear stearns people went to there, he was friends with people at the top of jpmorgan. unpack it from there and look at bank records, that shows you did you give money to some entity in eastern europe, that's when you start piecing the money trail, that is what you should be doing now. it is gossipy. bill clinton likes young girls, here's an interesting thing. in that context of these. charles: one of these are was aggrieved.

bill clinton, this context is he likes young girls being the rage. donald trump said the same thing about him in 2002 in a vanity fair article in a positive way, he said jeffrey epstein likes younger girls, beautiful young girls and they are young. just because the more young is there, got to be -- >> they were 14, 15, 16-year-olds. charles: when trump said it, the insinuation was positive. in his deposition, the insinuation is negative. charles: not one in that group save prince andrew. there is no proof of that. he denied it.

can't get it all straight. a lot of people looking at this, you have democrats trying to seize on the trump stuff, republicans trying to seize the clinton stuff. don't know if there is there there. charles: the only way this goes somewhere is if they follow the money trail, go to jpmorgan. get them to show their suspicious activities, they had a few. follow the money trail where he was sending money if you want to unpack this and maybe it leads nowhere. neil: why now? charles: this has been slow. this has been a slow burn. if you don't want to follow the money trail, it is not worth it because you won't prove anything. stuart: neil: good stuff. we forget this other side, before we knew of this.

charles: people innocently might have done business with him and maybe you shouldn't be tarring them with he was in a deposition because he said hello. got to be careful about this. i'm careful about this all the time because that is what i do. you can blow it out and say whatever you want. i'm in the business of fact, not get sued for libel. neil: thank you for that. this other story that is a very hot one in the northeast. i'm not talking about the snowstorm that i have doubts will never evolve. on the migrant issue new york city doesn't want them. new jersey is saying we don't want them. we don't know how this ends up. there are a lot of lawsuits after this. unlocking the power of thinkorswim,

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neil: where to the migrants go? in new jersey a number not wanted in new york city in the garden state, a sanctuary state for new home. madison alworth is in secaucus with more. >> reporter: migrants are being dropped off in new jersey towns like secaucus. the new jersey bus arriving at 9:00 am on the southern border, we were here for that arrival. as soon as the bus pulled up they were meta by nj transit police who boarded the bus to count the number of migrants on board which came to a total of 36 migrants. the communicator the bus driver and it was confirmed that all the migrants would be getting on a train bound for new york city. i was able to chat with some of these migrants on the way.

i asked where he is from. he is from ecuador. where is he going? he's going to new york city which is what we have been seeing. all of this has been happening because of a new executive order in new york city which limits when charter buses can come into the city and drop off migrants but the executive order is being ignored because what we've seen since saturday, 25 buses have stopped indifferent new jersey towns full of migrants from the southern border but migrants are dropped off, killed -- given train tickets and given into new york city via train. local leaders in new jersey including many democrats are warning against migrants arriving in their town. the mayor of edison wrote on facebook after the first buses arrived at his house saying in part i have instructed law enforcement and emergency management departments to charter a bus to transport the illegal migrants back to the southern texas mexican border.

the mayor of trenton, new jersey saying they do not have the capacity to take care of the migrants. >> we are a city of 100,000. we don't have resources to house them or feed them or take care of their medical needs. it is something that the federal government has to provide us with resources to deal with immigrants that are left on our borders. >> reporter: as long as border crossings remain an issue the issue of where to how these migrants will still exist. neil: new jersey is a sanctuary state, new york is as well. no one wants it. when it comes to paying for what you talk of, she you are not doing it. >> reporter: madison alworth,

congressman buddy carter, congress committee, budget committee, important guy. what's weird about that is either your pro sanctuary or you don't, a lot of these cities and states given the enormity of the problem of texas and arizona, they might have to change the sanctuary label. >> reporter: talk about getting a dose of your own medicine, this is a case of democrats and locals getting a taste of their own medicine. what we've done here, send them to these states. every state is a border state. you have to understand everyone in america being impacted by what is going on at the southern border whether it is through illegal immigrants, illegal drugs, illicit drugs coming to your city, investing

in communities, not in a good way at all. neil: looking into impeaching the homeland security secretary, scheduled for january 10th, ultimately, if the president wants him there, isn't the president going to keep him there? >> i suspect that will be the case but that shouldn't stop us doing what we need to do. he needs to be impeached. he's not doing his job at all. he's not following the law. why don't you pass laws that will stop this, there are laws on the booklet to stop this. they need to enforce them. in a typical democratic response is let's throw money at it. the more money you throw, the more you care. it will take more than that. it will take policy changes and following, making sure you are enforcing the law.

that is what mayorkas is not doing. neil: the president said when he was coming back from st. croix they need to give him money to secure the border and i'm thinking to myself, there is money there that you are not using and not implementing and your definition of what to do with that money is different than what you and your colleagues want to do, how do we settle this once and for all? >> they are going to have to be policy changes, implementation and enforcement of existing laws that are on the books now. those things have got to take place. i have people asking me most often when i am in the district, how can you justify sending money and weapons to another country to secure their border when our border is not secure. i don't have an answer. how can we justify that?

we won't payoff ukraine. we want to help israel. we need to. we understand that. we get it but we've got to secure our border and that's got to happen. neil: good seeing you, happy new year. we are looking at nikki haley getting a lot of attention, she trails by a lot in the polls in the battleground states. he has emerged as the strong number 2 but what's really remarkable is all the money she has raised that effectively doubles every quarter. the latest numbers after this.

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>> i will tell you i have seen the commercials you are seeing and donald trump has given me some attention these days. i'm kind of flattered. i am flattered because he sees what we are seeing, we are surging and he is getting uncomfortable. but every bit of that commercial and the temper tantrums he has been putting out every day. every benefit is a liar. neil: the back-and-forth continues but the money for nikki haley off the charts, the latest quarter, $23 million double what she raised a quarter before that. she's attracting a number of big donors.

a german-american billionaire and scientist who left his perch to say this is worth the investment. frank, good to have you. why this commitment to support nikki haley? >> thank you may -- thank you for having me. i've never been in politics. i'm an independent. i am independent-minded and we wanted to make sure the independents, the largest voting group, larger than registered republicans or democrats, that they have an influence on what presidential candidates we have next november. we can do better than biden trump choices we might have and we think we have a terrific candidate, nikki haley is a generational candidate. positive vision, excellent

experience. i have heard her in a town hall. neil: you've been living the good life, you issue politics, you speak of the 40% or more new hampshire residents who consider themselves independent but passed over chris christie who has been pursuing that vote. >> he is not very popular outside of new jersey and new hampshire. his negative rating is very high, i have no problem with chris christie. i don't think he has a chance at the nomination. it is a one trick pony, we are not anti-trump about pro nikki. we can make our vote count on

january 23rd, voting for nikki haley who has a good chance, excellent electability if she is the republican candidate. neil: a lot of your decision was based on the path of nikki haley, she has a more promising one, then you consider ron desantis or chris christie, does that mean if she doesn't make it and it is donald trump who does, you would support donald trump? >> we are independents, not a republican super pac. we are supporting nikki haley. we don't have a plan b. nikki haley we think is a terrific plan a. i'm aware of no labels, it's good that we are out there but there's a good plan a and that is nikki haley.

he has a shot, she has electability. as i get to know her as a candidate, she is exactly the forward-looking candidate who can solve the problems that need to be solved so we are very enthusiastic about her and believe many independents who want to make a difference will not a. out and vote for as well. neil: you are a scientist, you are a genius. every scientist and genius i've known has had plan b, and option in case something doesn't work out. is that your thought that if nikki haley doesn't work out there is no plan b at all? no candidate to fall back on? >> we are not playing the field of republican candidates.

we don't need to be involved in politics. if we can make a positive difference with the unaffiliated centrist voters of new hampshire in the open primary on january 23rd if she is successful which i think she will be. if she over performs this will go to south carolina, super tuesday so we will have work to do because we think she will over performing new hampshire. she should once voters take a closer look at her but i don't need to be in politics for that. this is the one field we can play. if it does good for the country we will be pleased. neil: would be a first, harkening back to german roots, a successful bridge building leader in germany, margaret thatcher, conservative in britain, women who become president, on the conservative

side, not to say the liberal side, going back to israel. what is it about that? >> i'm not sure i have the answer. i admired margaret thatcher but sometimes people are calling nikki haley a potential ronald reagan and if she could do that job for this country i think that would be fantastic. we are not picking her to pick a woman. she happens to be a woman. he she is a terrific, experienced candidate with the right vision and with our efforts. neil: thank you. i heard a lot about you, love to have you back. the independent moving the needle founder, the whole package, showing money and commitment to nikki haley. we are trying to throw

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adam: there's a storm coming. in the midwest you always get hit, look at these new yorkers complaining a little bit of white stuff. on fox weather, chief meteorologist, everyone says what's the scare going on in the northeast? is it justified? >> reporter: we get snow in the northeast, we haven't had any in two winters, nothing significant last winter so it will feel like a story for us. the storm is in the four corners bringing rain and snow across the four corners and a lot of it. them winter storm warnings in

effect across northeastern areas of new mexico. texas and oklahoma, some spots, 3 or 4 inches of snow. another storm will bring more snow behind it. a flood threat with of this. this. this map is more intimidating than it is, this is the precipitation, a lot of rain in the southeast, towards the north, florida on saturday, the third for strong winds and a tornado or two but because we are going to get a lot of rain the next couple days this is through saturday looking at the front of a little flooding in the south. look at this. there's a nice component of this, this is dangerous and could cause power outages across the south, be prepared for coat of ice which could

cause four power outages. this is how the snow is looking right now and notice the i-95 corridor door anywhere to the west of that you get higher elevation generally the threat for more snow, standard feature, can be the breaking point, east of it, warmer than the hermas, on the coast, warmer air to the coast. where does the rain versus snow lying set across interior sections. to the bigger population areas, i would not stick to this forecast but this is what things are looking at. but he significant snow when you get inside. there four days from this and a lot of things can change. this could slide by a number of miles and could be the other one.

we will keep talking about it. neil: always appreciate that. this year is not ramping up great for stocks, underwater for the s&p 500 on a year that saw the same average moving ahead by 25%. the investment strategist, still early but what do you make of it as january goes, not necessarily the rest of the year, certainly in 2020 when we are down 16%, down in january, up 27%, what do you think? >> positions that ran up an extreme amount, reallocating the capital somewhere else and

these stocks ran up, more attractive areas, we trimmed our nvidia which is up to hundred% about more amd which i shouldn't say only but only up one hundred% compared to 200%. looking underneath the hood especially in technology, stocks not necessarily supplying technology that ran up hard, stocks actually implementing technology to drive profitability. one of the biggest consulting firms when companies are looking to implement new technology solutions, productivity rates are the lowest they have ever been in history so that productivity is replaced with technology and people underestimate what that looks like a. neil: if we could go back the last few years how january has gone versus the rest of the

year, last year was an interesting year where we started january strong after an awful 22 and finished strong the year before which was horrible for the markets, started that way for january, finishing 92%. what i'm saying given the split read we can get on this data, is january a reliable indicator, seeing rally days that take us through yesterday right before christmas, that didn't look promising. what are you relying on? it is a super bowl indicator. >> i wouldn't read too much into that with stock market returning 24%. there are problems this year, not a huge sign of anything but earnings this year, everyone projecting earnings growth for the stock market and this makes up a portion of the s&p 500. i don't like relying on the s&p

and the nasdaq but the bottom 493 in the stock market. 12% earnings growth, where people think that will come from is 12% is going to come from technological implementation to make businesses more efficient. a lot of investors didn't realize just because revenues are not as strong this year doesn't mean they take 4% earnings growth in stocks throughout the year. neil: january is not even there, great seeing you. happy new year. the 10 year just crossed 4% and seems to be sticking their for the time being but it's not killing stocks thus far. more after this.

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adam: bucking the trend, in and out of 4%. watch interest rates, taking up steam when those rates came down. jackie: great to see you