take a look at the two top ticket items up for grabs, the 22 by sarah jessica parker and and the city is expected to sell for 8 - $12000 and you've you prefer british royalty by princess diana could be yours for the estimated price of 100 . will be following you on "mornings with maria" weekdays on fox business and i'll see you on the fox news channel "sunday morning futures", schools of interviews with house chairman select committee mike gallagher, byron donalds and congresswoman marjorie taylor greene, don't mrs. live sunday on fox news, that'll do it for us on fox business, thank you so much for joining me this weekend, i hope you have a great rest of the weekend and i'll see you again next time. ♪ roundtable sponsored by global x

etf's. ♪ >> welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead. i am jack otter, what is the biggest you political risk facing the global economy, not the war in gaza, not russia versus ukraine but our own u.s. election, your president and founder ian bremmer shares his list of top risks for 2020 fort, barron's convenience investing experts to discuss what the new year holds for the market aerial investment chairman was there any joins us with his investing outlook, later why it's much better to be an airplane passenger then an airline investor, we began as always with three things investors to be think about right now. stocks are rebounded after falling in the new year now investors are looking to fourth quarter earnings for the markets next week, out with the old, and

with the new, the magnificent seven dominated in 2023 but don't expect that same this year they created its own list of magnificent seven that could emerge, finally, bitcoin etf start here crypto can be bought and traded publicly after fcc approved a rule change, we will look at how we can reshape the investing landscape on the "barron's roundtable" ben levisohn, meghan leonard and jack hough. the s&p tried this past week to break to a new high, it did not make it does not worry your inner technician. >> america had a great week, the s&p 500 was up 1.8%, were positive on the year after the lousy start, it did this even though bank earnings are mediocre and earnings being so important, the earnings came out, they were messy and some of the stocks dropped and some were okay but it didn't knocked on the market, inflation came down hot that did not knocked on the market either, that looks like things taken in stride, and has

been able to hit the new high, each tried twice in intraday highs and hasn't been able to close, to bit worried some is starting to look like a lot of resistance and the resistance we're going to have to worry about. >> the fact of odds decrease went up a little bit. on the bad news front of geopolitics, the u.s. and the uk finally said enough is enough fired missiles at the houthis who was threatening the ships in the red sea, i didn't see much of a reaction to the market. >> we saw oil prices jumped 3% in that first happened they finish the day close to flat, you see this with oil that it jumps and it comes back down to can't stay above $75. i don't think after worry about things unless oil starts to make a big move, this is not covered were supply chains got very disrupted in a huge way, i don't think this is the same as the ship getting stuck, were giddy see headlines about supply chain on tesla and is not something to

worry about just yet, the mayor or something like that. >> and looking to retail sales, this economy is 70% consumer spending. it looks like the consumer is holding up okay, brian bonham the ceo of america, the consumer is still the game i'm not sure what game, basketball, football, whatever. he's pretty optimistic. >> we should expect a strong retail sales coming out, the holiday sales held up pretty well this year end we already have amber crombie, united, urban outfitters and american eagle city had double-digit sales. >> we will find out more in february with the retails report the earnings. jack: barron's had the audacity to change the magnificent seven kicking out tesla, meta and apple adding brookshire, visa and meta health. >> were coming off of the historic run, these stocks did so incredibly well but were

probably not quite to see those back-to-back results like we will in other sectors. were sitting there saying let's mix things up a little bit. we are going to sit there and recast this into the magnificent seven as my colleague nick jasinski tells us, this makes so much sense. when you look at the market you have some companies that are obvious no-brainers, getting rid of telsa for example, we saw that they lost their crown in terms of the top producer and they're not really delivering on their fundamentals would it comes to performance. you have things like apple for example, that's great about this year as well. were just not seeing the strong demand that we have in the past for this particular stock. jack: i will say were hedging our bets, the apple vision going to preorder, you're not excited about paying $300 to put ski goggles on your face and watch cartoons got under dinosaurs run around in your living room. >> not goggles, spatial computers. jack: brookshire has a big

position and apple. we are hedging our bed just a little. jack: are you excited about the bitcoin etf. >> excited is not even the word, you could buy now in your bitcoin exposure with stock and bitcoin etf you don't need a weird crypto wallet, you need to track futures prices you can track spot prices, bitcoin is up 80% since early september and anticipation everybody wants to know it didn't have a great day friday but deutsche bank says it could go higher for three reasons, number one institutional bindings, loads of the new fund they look really cheap, never to the fed is expected to cut rates and low rates are good for increasing investor demand for nonsense, that's not deutsche bank words, rising regulation, they say new regulation this year, europe could help. i'm not sure about the last one i feel like bitcoin needs to be a little bit naughty to keep working. i'm not sure the regulation helps but that's what deutsche bank says.

jack: financial advisors can output their clients and bitcoin. >> put 3% in that way if it tanks they'll say see i only told you 3% and if it goes up they knew it all along. geopolitical expert is predicting 2024 on the horrible list as several conflicts wreak havoc. he will explai [coughing] copd isn't pretty. i'm out of breath, and often out of the picture. but this is my story.

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>> from the dysfunction in washington to multiple wars overseas, geopolitical conflicts are likely to dominate. g0 media president and founder ian bremmer is expecting what he calls a year of great concern or

the baltimore of years, he joins me with his list of top risks predictions for 2024, they stand for coming back on the show. >> always good to see you, your geopolitical risk is fascinating, the casual observer might expect russia, ukraine or gaza to populace. but your top risk is united states versus itself you write the upcoming election that will test american democracy to a degree the nation has experienced in a hundred and 50 years and undermine the u.s. credibility on the global stage, can you explain. >> i wish that wasn't the case, certainly when you talk to the leaders of u.s. allies they say it, they don't say it publicly but they do say it. it is in part because the state of the u.s. democracy has so eroded the trust that americans have in their institutions and their political institutions is at record lows in the by the

supporters and trump supporters are fighting over completely different things and they believe their supporter have the election stolen against them, that is the astonishing thing in the disinformation that presently exist in the civic american space, and that environmental likelihood that this election is going to go badly in the losers will not accept the outcome is unprecedentedly hot the lack of accepted facts of the general public is very disturbing as well and the result of the u.s. election might not be accepted. and we seen that once before on trump 2020 and most of his supporters think he was right to do so and don't consider januarn certainly not something

impeached or convicted on and he deserves to be brought to trial over. 91 indictments in several different cases and democrats believe this guy should be in jail and should be allowed to run, this time around the stakes are much higher, if trump loses him end up in prison. if biden loses he and his supporters truly believe that trump will go after them a politicized fbi in the department of justice and the irs, there will be a personal danger. you and i never explained anything like this in the history of our country, the reason it's a big risk is because the u.s. is so powerful. the economy is the strongest in the world, the military is the strongest in the world. unfortunately, the u.s. is the most dysfunctional political system a democracy in crisis of any of the g-7 countries any of

the advanced and industrial democracies, the things were talking about could not happen in canada or japan or germany and yet we normalize them here in the united states. jack: i hate to pylon but making it worse is the ability of a.i. to make misinformation seem even more real. >> certainly the fact that the technology is growing a lot faster than our ability to govern it, that this information we see a lot in the mistrust of the media and social media and polarization but when you have a.i. tools that are far better than what we've seen with gpt available in the hands of average citizens, some of whom are bad actors, external actors as well that want to cause chaos, that's a huge wildcard for the united states in 2024 and you hate to be the experiment that is run globally that's with the u.s. is going to be the selection. jack: the whole world is

watching, you write that benjamin netanyahu and putin are watching very carefully making certain calculations based on who the winner is, can you break that down. >> put in for example understands that trump sees zelenskyy as a political enemy and an adversary who refused when trump demanded to open investigations into biden and his son, if trump wins he will demand ukrainians except in outcome to end this war that will be completely acceptable and he'll cut a jazz military support and there are some countries like that like the hungarians for example and others that will find this to be an exponential threat, the polish government, the baltics, england, sweden, that will pose unprecedented strain on the you and when it comes to middle east by dish try to put more pressure on benjamin netanyahu and he doesn't like the trust that is not been affected and the

pressure is growing, trump would be in a completely different place and not just with israeli and willingness to attack iran, trump ordered the assassination of soleimani with the americans were getting hit by the iranians to a much lower degree in the proxy war being fought and supported by iran against u.s. servicemen and women against the red sea every day. in the potential for a lot worse in 2020 with the backdrop you politically was much more stable. jack: i hope are sitting there say miraculously we avoided the problems, thank you for wending us. the roundtable investing experts share their expectations for the market this year. >> for the celebration there is a chance we have a soft recession in q2, q3 and as we sit here the next year, the

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jack: barron's annual roundtable the namesake convened with experts that share their market outlook for 2024. ariel investment founder chief investment officer john roberts was there as a new member of the panel and he joins us now. congratulations for the "barron's roundtable" and thank you for coming on the show. >> is very exciting to be part of the roundtable. >> i gotta start off with what called my attention, you predicted the s&p 500 could be down 10 - 15% and 2024, what gives you the outlook.

>> the large-cap growth stocks have dominated the s&p 500, we know the magnificent seven were up 87% and drove the performance in the market is expensive and selling over 26 times nine years earnings, the market feels expensive especially in the large-cap growth area is dominated the s&p 500. jack: one of the big changes in 2024 is money is no longer free, that is a new thing to market participants. there is an argument that that could change what investors value durable companies with strong cash flow will suddenly become more appealing to investors i'm guessing that is your philosophy, we want to durable businesses was strong cash for the long-term and have that warren buffett would say a moat around the company we can flip confident the five or ten years down the road the copy

will still be there generating positive cash flow. we think a lot of the industrial companies will have their day in the sun. >> it is meghan i wanted to ask about a recent op-ed that you did in the wall street journal, you talk a lot about the fed policy having a profound impact on investors last year in investments. what you expect for 2024, will we see investors shrug off for the monetary policies were to play a role in. >> i think monetary policy will play a role is very important in the fed was behind three, four, five years ago today that the inflation was transitory it wasn't. and i think the fed is on top of their game, they understand they had to get the money supply under control and now we see interest rates are going to steadily go down throughout 2024 which will be a solid support for the overall economy.

>> jack cow, i understand that you like small caps and value stocks and i get that they're both cheap, they have been cheap for a long time, why is now the moment when they will come around. >> i think partly they're selling at low pe especially versus large-cap growth stocks. at the same time, i think so many of the small-cap value stocks have been neglected. so are the orphan stocks, they're not getting quality research at all the wall street research is a mile wide and an inch deep. i think we can find some hidden gems in the sector were the characteristics and growth are not well understood by the markets. we are in their searching for the buried treasure and there's a lot of opportunities in the small-cap value space. >> this is ben levisohn, i hate to assess question but index funds have done so well, the s&p if you go into the s&p why, it's

done fantastic in recent years, why should we consider active funds over indexes? >> sometimes it gets overdone index makes sense there's a role for indexing and every peripheral deal. but when we get to the extremes and index are so expensive or more only a handful of stocks driving the performance that's a time where you don't want to have a life savings depend on index funds. in the year 2000 with internet bubble burst, s&p 500 was down substantially on the russell 2000 was up substantially those things can happen when we get to the extreme valuations. >> you to be fascinating to see if the script replays because it was a helluva time to invest in those stocks, good luck thank you so much for coming on the show, we will see you soon. >> ben and meghan have a progressive makes it easy to save with a quick commercial auto quote online.

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jack: warren buffett joked of farsighted capitalist would've shot workable down, it seemed like that window been a bad idea from an investor perspective. >> airline stocks got clobbered on friday. flight demand has been strong, market value last year were down more than 60% from pre-pandemic, profits were down less than 20% read some analysts say these companies are getting credit for improvements morgan stanley upgraded united, they say this'll be one of the most consequently years and airline history if the management team can constrain a new supply growth as they say and they think it could be good for the shares, i spoke with helene becker, she like some of the stocks but short-term not

long-term, she seen this movie before it doesn't end well and it seems like it's on repeat, her mother asked her why she so bearish on airlines and she said because i'm only wrong for an hour a year. jack: let me ask you about this near disaster, another for the boeing 37 that. >> the door plug issue on the alaska flight. it affects alaska airlines most of all, i hear it can be resolved quickly they talk about bolt tightening. reading our barron's colleagues, they both these things on from the outside, you think they make the panels bigger than the whole ambled them from the inside i did not get an a and metal shop but it makes total sense to me. hopefully it can be resolved and will be a big impact on revenue. >> was good actionable ideas. pentair got upgraded there not an airline, the actually do water and pools they clean pools and whatnot, that business got hit hard by covid and post-covid

when they stopped taking care of their pools, looks like it's getting better. it got upgraded and is a good time to do it. jack: meghan your idea is a good reminder. >> make sure you have your house in order when it comes to taxes making sure you maxed out your eye rose, 6500 for those of us under the age of 50 and 7500 for those above, make sure you do that before the tax deadline of april 15. >> even though it's a new year you have until april 15. >> a little extra buffer room. thank you, to read more checkout barron's.com we have the first half of the "barron's roundtable", don't forget to follow us on x at barron's online. that is it for us, we'll see you next week on "barron's roundtable". >> from the fox studio in ne