stuart: we just got some responses on how much you would to power program. from robin, we would give stuart 40%, lahren 75% and ash 50% for beautiful hair. we will never ask that question again if that is what you are going to do. for before the break we asked how long it takes the heart to circulate to the body and back to the heart again. 35, 40, that wouldn't surprise me, such a short time. a matter of seconds. you are first. ashley: if i am jogging, not fast enough. i go with number 2, 40 seconds. lauren: i would think 40 seconds as well. stuart: i will go for 50 seconds. the answer is 45 seconds. the beats 100,000 times a day.

the week is over, coast-to-coast starts now. neil: we are feeling better. president biden, doubt he is feeling better because voters are not feeling better about him. he's not on the new hampshire ballot. we are going to explain the weirdness of that in a second. the weirdness of these markets, continuing to swat away worrisome news like sudden bumps in housing buoyed by the fact that we are buoyed by something. consumer sentiment is soaring. we are on top of that. gary, all these crosscurrents, we've seen a survey now that shows we are feeling better about where we are going but there are some caveats. >> you said the word cross currents. you had a manufacturing number you would think the economy is falling off a cliff.

and consumer sentiment numbers that are strong. definitive crosscurrents. i'm a believer the market will end up deciding when all is said and done and the market is holding steady. you had a few weeks of rough patch for broad market but yesterday started to kick in gear. on the semiconductor software front, pretty much nothing stopping it, new names showing up on a daily basis. we are okay here. my big worries long-term, massive debt, credit card usage skyrocketing. pay me later by now has been skyrocketing. could be heck to pay down the road but it's not here yet. neil: i like to talk about real estate, that's the epicenter of a hot real estate market, starts slowing down. interest rates coming down but we get the news on home sales in starts. what's the real deal?

>> in florida i can tell you inventory, hardly any, only in certain spots and people with fantasy prices are finding out they are not selling and after a couple months they are taking prices down. there has been little bit of a change but not much and prices are much higher in the last year or two and there's the 38 which is basically the 3-7. people are loath to sell 3% mortgages and trade them in for a new house, 7%. a huge difference in mortgage payments. that came by jay powell keeping rates at 0 and that's the reason inventory continues to stay low. once inventory picks up, prices will come down a little bit. neil: you are a great market

historian, was the trigger point when the election in november begins to show up in the trading like now or couple months from now. when does wall street factor that in or play that? >> it hasn't happened yet. there's a direct correlation with of the market as it comes down, the market behaves, if it goes a market comes down. that has been going on a couple of years but looks like the chock is going to be donald trump against president biden. you have a huge difference between high taxes and a lot of controlling regulations versus low taxes and less regulations and markets going to sneak up going forward. one has to do with higher profits and lower profits and i talked about the antibusiness rhetoric that pervades the air with one but not the other. it doesn't come into play. stuart: we will have you back a

little later. now to new hampshire, a big primary next week. madison alworth has the latest. madison: we are four days from the new hampshire primary in the latest polling shows donald trump leads his opponent by double digits in the granite state. trump leading nikki haley by 17 points. the former president going on the offensive against his former ambassador saying she has no chance of winning. >> she has no chance, no way. nikki worked for me for a long time. she would not be able to handle that position. she would not be able to handle the onslaught. >> reporter: at her first event in southern new hampshire, nikki haley refuted trump's claim saying new hampshire is very much in play and she's not going to let anyone but the

voters decide her fate here. >> it is about making people know they have a choice. this is our chance. don't complain what happens in the general election if you don't play in this primary. we are not going to let the media define what these races but let the people of new hampshire decide. they will define it in a great way. >> reporter: haley continues to crisscross the state while ron desantis who is polling 6% in new hampshire will be traveling back from florida after official state business. he will be holding two town halls tonight despite his campaign admitting this week their focus is south carolina's primary and we are in the final stretch leading up to tuesday's vote. the campaign is hoping for strong turnout, nikki haley saying while there was low voter turnout in iowa she expect granite satyrs to show up in numbers and she's expecting a great day tuesday. neil: the new hampshire gop

chairman, donald trump was saying new hampshire isn't representative of the other states having primaries and caucuses. democrats can vote and independents can vote, unless they change party affiliation and would have to have done so in early october. independents and unaffiliated voters can. that is something that would benefit nikki haley. how do you see it? >> thank you. in 2016 we had the same rules in effect for 40 years. in 2016 you could argue having the undeclared voters be able to take either ballot helped donald trump. the rules are the same. it is a great process because 40% of our electorate are undeclared. many of them are habitual republicans, many habitual democrats. the crossover is not as big as

someone might think. those traditional republicans who decide to register as undeclared, we believe they will vote in big numbers next tuesday. i predict a record turnout of 300,000 votes in our primary. democrats may be half as much because president biden decided to skip new hampshire completely. the voters will decide. as far as the polls go, in 2,022 we had a senate primary were all the polls-1 outlier said it would be a double-digit win for one person. election night it was within one percentage point. in new england, new hampshire, sometimes people don't give the pollsters the full story. neil: i am curious. the fact that the president won't be on a ballot, i don't remember a time where an

incumbent president has not been on a new hampshire ballot running for reelection let alone election. >> i believe back in lyndon johnson's time period where there was a right in and didn't do as well as they expected. lyndon johnson didn't run for reelection because -- neil: he barely won and opted out in 1968. that is a good way you framed that because some are interpreting that as another johnson moment in march of that year 1968 that lbj said he was stepping out of the race because of that poor performance. i'm wondering whether president biden risks the same counterattack, opting not to participate at all. >> i think he does. part of that goes to his health

and questions about his health, his ability to campaign and not coming to new hampshire doing any retail at all, makes people question whether or not he's up to the job. so i think it is going to hurt him in november should he be on the ballot but are predictors in new hampshire, don't think he will be on the ballot. they think it is in the planning to have him replaced. it makes sense if he's not going to play in the primary. we will see what happens. it's a long way from now to november. that is our prediction, president biden will not be on the ballot. however the republican is will be running against the ghost of joe biden. neil: up until early october, the chance to switch ago and affiliated and participate in what would be the republican primary. i think a few thousand did that

but as you said, 300,000 will participate in this primary which is triple the number who did in iowa so that would be a more substantial showing of participation but i am wondering the role of those former democrats and what they might have on the state, a relatively small number, that number, 1%. what do you make of that? >> we think that number was close to 4000. it switched to. in a normal year, normal year, you have people switch and people have been drifting towards the republican party recently. part of that could be natural movement, the other part could be some of those democrats trying to play in the republican primary but overall we see memos from the democrats asking their people to vote in their primary and in particular there is the right in effort for joe biden. i compare that to political

stockholm syndrome. somebody who doesn't want your vote, doesn't want to campaign, but his cabinet secretary has come up in the gray area of the hatch act campaigning for him. it is just another example of the confusion of the biden administration. they don't know if he's running, not running, writing, not right in. at the end of the day i don't think he's on the ballot, he can't take another four years of this physically. neil: it sends a mixed message to new hampshire voters. great seeing you. thank you very much. i love this stuff. we are going to be needy up and this stuff tomorrow when we do our fox news show from the granite state. we've got ron desantis coming up today to be featured tomorrow and when we are new hampshire we've got chris sununu, the governor, dialing back expectations for nikki haley. what that could mean and the two people challenging president biden for the democratic nomination, he's not

on the ballot but marion williamson is an dian phillips is an both are with me tomorrow. i'm told it's not going to be nearly as cold as it was in iowa so that alone has me saying okay, i can deal with this. in the meantime, chip roy is not dealing with this new funding measure. avoids a shut down but at a great cost to the united states. >> the american people are tired of getting a complete lack of representation from their representatives. nobody in this country looks at congress and says wow, heckuva job, guys and gals, well done. who would do that? would we do that? by the way, it does not matter who is sitting in the speaker's seat or who has the majority, we keep doing the same stupid

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neil: no early lid for president biden today. sometimes the lid is already on. he was busy and meeting with the country's big city mayors. >> the crisis at the border is gripping washington. they would unlock aid for israel and ukraine, details for that detail. and alejandra mayorkas. it didn't specifically come about the conference of mayors meetings. >> it is a leading role in that. it engaged trying to take down a few minor prizes engaged in this and with mexico it is a

matter of policing, we've been working closely with them. >> reporter: 20 of talk about fentanyl but not the border specifically. antony blinken and alejandra mayorkas are scheduled to meet with mexican delegation to address migration challenges but officials would not say whether mexico is being consulted on this late of border policy reforms that are being discussed. republicans reiterate their demands that include certain trump era policies get into that deal including restoring new mexico, building the wall and ending catch and release. president biden indicated there are too many big issues left to negotiate with his group in the senate before the deal is unveiled. >> where is the disagreement? >> president biden: i don't think we have one. >> reporter: broadly, this deal is expected to raise the bar for asylum-seekers and grant powers to remove migrants and

restrict use of parole for migrants awaiting processing. it may not be enough to get the support of house republicans still demanding a number of trump era policies getting to this deal. neil: thank you for that outside a snowy white house, chip roy joins us from the house rules committee, speaks his own mind. you aren't afraid of the political pressure and fallout. good to have you. you are not happy with this deal that avoids a shut down. explain. >> i just met with one of those mayors, a mayor that represents a city in the district i represent. i talk to people all the time about what they are dealing with in texas and i can assure you they are not excited about what they are seeing coming out of the senate and the white house and the president said there aren't any sticking points, has no idea what is in this bill what is being discussed in granular detail. we only know bits and pieces

coming out of the senate. it doesn't do the job. it is not just restoring trump policies. we need to enforce existing law and make sure the law is clear so it can't be violated like it is being violated. so you insure, detain, remove or you will stay in mexico. that is what we did in hr 2. mayorkas release 90% of all people they are encountering. we know those are not true asylum-seekers, they are just people who want to come to this country. i don't begrudge them that but as long as you allow them to come you will never stop the crisis. texas is holding the bag. i oppose it and i oppose republicans funding it. that is what i said, why are we giving more money to alejandra mayorkas, then we talk about impeaching him to score points

in campaigns rather than doing our job to use the power of the purse, that james madison articulated was our power to stop out-of-control spending. neil: that is what donald trump said about this, he was sending a clear message to the speaker that it wasn't. at least on this, you and donald trump are on the same page. >> i agree with donald trump on a lot of things. i have friends who worked in his administration like tom homan and mike morgan who headed up border patrol. these are great guys who did a great job using remain in mexico to stop the flow but i would acknowledge donald trump failed along with republicans, paul ryan and the guys, they failed in 2018 to move a border security bill to tighten this so we are not dealing with this crisis right now. they failed to get the wall built, donald trump signed 12 continuing resolutions after saying he would never sign another one if he didn't give them the money to finish building the wall. this stuff matters. it adds up. i call balls and strikes. this is not hard.

that is why i support governor desantis who has delivered better than any politician i have seen in my lifetime. neil: that got donald trump angry at you. i am wondering, you went to run desantis and continue supporting and campaigned with him in iowa. the campaign is on life support, certainly not emphasizing a hail mary pass in south carolina. time to stick a fork in it? >> what we saw in iowa is 50% of voters wanting a different direction. an important point, 19% supported governor haley. 80% supported donald trump, governor desantis or an alternative to the establishment, the old guard who are basically living out their last dying breath. they are trying to show what they have behind nikki haley and it will fall short. she is not going to new hampshire. they said they needed to. they needed her to finish second on iowa, she didn't, she

will not win her home state in south carolina. neil: he is invisible in new hampshire in single digits. >> we saw what happened out of iowa, governor haley spent a lot of money there and frankly governor desantis went in in iowa and that is understandable. there's a divide in new hampshire where you have moderate republicans outside the boston area in new hampshire with your live free or die new hampshire -- a lot of them, 50% block sticking with donald trump. we get that but here's the deal. if we could get into a head the head battle, we believe governor desantis would make a strong showing. if we could get donald trump to show up to a debate rather than doing this out of his basement, he would be a better candidate if he does survive it and we think governor desantis would be able to win. we will see how it plays out. nikki haley is not going to be the nominee.

she should recognize that and makeweight so we have a debate between two conservatives rather than the last dying gasp of an old republican order that is not going to be back in power. neil: good luck with the snow. we will speak to ron desantis at 4 p.m. pm. some data that has some people thinking we are back to a weak economy, despite the consumer sentiment, the federal reserve will move on that. a key player in deciding that after this. ♪ ♪ we worked hard to build up the shop, save for college and our retirement. but we got there, thanks to our advisor and vanguard. now i see who all that hard work was for... it was always for you. seeing you carry on our legacy—

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we make a change, my site's not going to go down. and just knowing that i have a platform that we can rely on, that is gold to us. start your free trial today. there are some things that work better together. like your workplace benefits and retirement savings. voya provides tools that help you make the right investment and benefit choices. so you can reach today's financial goals. and look forward to a more confident future. voya, well planned, well invested, well protected. neil: we might have good news on consumer sentiment, most of it was slow. housing starts are disappointed. in a weird way, that is why the

dow is up. it furthers this argument the federal reserve can go back to cutting interest rates, sooner rather than later. the fed president might have a thing or two to say about this. very good to have you. >> good to be here. neil: you were open to early rate cuts. are we seeing a faster drop in inflation, it was on. >> there's a lot of evidence, from the highest inflation, we've come a long way and that is definitely true. the last couple readings, the forum that suggest things are slowing down.

from my outlook, they came down slowly for the last bit. we are down 3. 5. we need to get down to 2%. we are well on our way to 2% before we move to our circumstance clearly. neil: when you say we are well on our way to 2-person, we don't have to be at 2% for you % for you and your colleagues cut rates. >> if we wait until we are at 2% to remove the restrictiveness we will overshoot that and go beyond our target. we have to modulate this. that is a conversation i'm starting to have in my building with my staff about the signs we are going to have to see to be comfortable to know it is time to ease off of where we are today. neil: there had been fought in the markets, cutting interest

rates, you talked about a third-quarter move and that could be the july to september time frame. do you stick like that? >> my outlook says inflation won't be at 2% at the end of this year. if it continues that way, we still have a ways to go, a bit of a slowdown for inflation to get down to our 2% level. the data coming in stronger and the last six months of 2023, very surprising for me. i would be open to changing the outlook about where we need to cut rates. i want to see that happen before going too far. we know historically when the fed cuts too early and inflation is not tamed inflation does back up and it's more disruptive to the economy. i want to make sure we do not

cause that kind of disruption. neil: do you feel the pressure in a presidential election year. normally federal reserve boards are leery of making dramatic moves even though history indicates they have. the interpretation, benefit the administration, republicans will crow about that. what do you say to that? >> i'm under pressure all the time. this is no different than any period i am at. the us economy is an important thing. we have a mandate to make sure we have stable prices and maximum employment. when we don't get that a lot of heat comes down on us. i'm sensitive to that at all times. this you won't be different in that context. neil: normally presidents don't interfere with what the fed is doing.

the last president was critical of jerome powell and the fed and its moves. what do you think of the pressure if he returns to the job? that's a different kind of pressure, isn't it? >> we are an independent institution and we value that independence. history has shown the independence is important. they have views about what we should do, it is critical that we keep our head down, do the basic blocking and tackling and make sure we get the best judgments we can what the trajectory or policy needs to look at. if we do that the economy will go where it needs to go. we have stronger employment growth and the economy will be stronger, more resilient and more americans living in a more prosperous way. neil: easy for critics to play monday morning quarterback.

the lowest in 28 years, housing starts are stumbling and that despite lower mortgage rates we've seen the last couple weeks and i am wondering whether you look back at that and say maybe we did go too far? >> history will be the judge of that. i'm nervous all the time. i'm worried there's a new thing happening, that i need to be sure that i have my finger on the pulse of. our team is out in the field, we talked to business leaders continuously. the we don't make the boat. to date our team has done a good job and i'm anticipating and hopeful we will do that moving forward. neil: people like jamie dimon and jpmorgan say there will be a slowdown in the second half

of the year where you expect rates to go down. summer going so far as to say recession is coming by the end of the year, blood sugar britain is close to now. do you fear that? >> a possibility but i have to tell you that is not my basic outlook. throughout this whole period my outlook is not been for there to be a recession but rather the momentum of the economy would continue to carry the us forward and allow us to get inflation back to target without seeing damage to the employment markets. i'm going around and see this all the time. are you worried about demand holding up? today what they are telling me across the board is they are very positive where the economy is going to go. they don't expect it to be as strong as last year or the year before but they expect moving forward. neil: do you look at the markets at all?

you know market expectations, jerome powell saw that the markets are getting ahead of their skis here and anticipating rate cuts double what you telegraphed and sooner than you telegraphed. when you see the markets doing that do you feel the urge to say cool it? can you hear me? i think we lost him. i apologize for that. i did wonder about that. markets get ahead of the fed. some say the fed has to bring that back, most of the fed governors with control over this say they try to ignore them but are well aware of what is happening. we shall see. we will have more after this. you can't buy great conversations or moments that matter,

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neil: outside that technical cerise, hinting at the possibility that by the third quarter in the july to october period or december period, they will start cutting interest rates are that is what he is in favor of. the global real estate advisor based in key west, florida. to you first, jenna, on the significance of what he was hinting at, rates going down in the summer. >> that would be a big thing. interest rates impact the housing market. with rates going down, we are seeing more buyers into the housing market. we saw mortgage applications.

neil: existing home sales close to that. >> i think with the housing market, this could be a positive step in the right direction but i don't think the tide to turn quickly. affordability is a huge factor. americans are facing economic pressure between home prices and household incomes and the surge that americans have faced, it has been such a shock to the affordable levels, through the roof right now. these things aren't getting resolved overnight so affordability will drive the

market in 2024. neil: touched on that, gary last time we spoke. i don't want to misquote you where a lot of people refusing to put themselves on that. it is less than that, this won't change. >> on the affordability front, i am amazed some of the prices, i am talking about mid to lower end, houses that were in 2019, 350 now and back then, 6 and the change. that has to be hopefully the market makes it out and the

good news is the 10 year yield is down from five. that gives a little help but there's a lot of distortion that came from the fed that caused a lot of this. housing prices went up, yields were so low. of the 3-7. keep fingers crossed. we are in the soup right now and especially on the higher end prices coming down, things are not moving like they did and inventories quite low. neil: the 10 year note is backing up of late. we had a lot of strong economic news so market rates determine whether people are going to take out mortgage. they have control based on the psychology of what they are doing, they are doing their own thing. >> they are doing their own

thing and i think they've overdone it too. neil: the rates are over anticipating. buyers and sellers, the supply and balance may artificially keep it up pricewise. >> the markets in florida that have more inventory and markets that don't have a lot of inventory, you are seeing prices go up and we could still see that in the first half of the year. as you get more buyers into the market, we don't have inventory to match that demand so that is going to put upward pressure on home prices. neil: didn't want to politicize

the interview but it is odd that in the past, the fed has moved and been aggressive during presidential election years, they are very aggressive at times like this. some might want to push rates down. he was saying that was not the case, you get in the direction of 2% inflation rate, they are ready to pull the trigger. what intrigued me is you didn't have to get to 2%. you had to be on your way to 2%. >> the needle moves. for anyone who says that the election year doesn't affect them, everybody is human, everybody has their favorites. they can talk a little bit about what doesn't affect them. i'm sure it does. i think they could be at 23/4% with the tenure 4-one but looks like they determined. got to hand it to them. a lot of them were dovish for a long time, they are staying pretty tight here considering

the fact that interest rates, the real market, has come down. i give them a hand. to fight inflation, kill it dead. don't know if they will get the job done but certainly on the way. the biggest problem for inflation is the rate of inflation is down but the price for so many things from food to insurance to rent and all kinds of other things are still way up and have not come down and that is got to seep into the economy over time. neil: i wanted to ask you this and i have forgotten. still a lot of folks playing cash? >> absolutely. you are seeing a lot of cash purchases out there. rob: in key west are you watching snow? >> i have been feeling it. neil: in the northeast we are seeing it now. we picked up the pace of the snowstorm. most of the east coast, don't know where we will end up on all of this. a lot of you have been worried about travels to new hampshire. it's not a fraction of how cold

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neil: we have a lot of snow, it has been virtually invisible, i love jason, he's good at what he does, very good human being but he has been warning us about this. >> let's talk about the cold weather. you were in iowa. temperatures well below normal and right now, 200 million americans below normal and by tomorrow the number will increase, what happens on sunday, we start to get some relief here. we've been seeing snow showers moving into places like new york and philadelphia and that his impacted travel for many of you.

some of you have been dealing with snowfall, 3 to 5 inches of snowfall. here's the good news. we are making out our snow deficit in the northeast. might remember last year we were down some snow. some of you were complaining that we didn't get any snow but we got anywhere from 2 to 5 inches of snow. to the primaries, a lot of focus is on new hampshire. the good news, it will be much warmer than this time earlier this week in iowa. it was around liz: -- it was temperatures that are going to be well into the 30s. we might possibly see t-shirts and shorts. clothing optional.

liz: he was doing that without prompting. neil: that is annoying right there. >> i am following you. i learned it all from you. neil: another system building in the northwest. what's going on with this? there are planes backed up at laguardia. >> we had an ice storm that moves far room. it starts to move to the northeast, what we are seeing now. next week, temperatures are going to be warming up but for many of you across the south, this means we will see a lot more rain. places like texas to part of louisiana could potentially pick up 5 inches of rain. neil: you are a new dad. how's that going? >> overwhelming.

it is like walking really fast backwards while trying to say your abcs as well. but i absolutely love it. she's taking me really happy and it has also been interesting. we have some parents watching as well. you start to see your child develop, a warming sensation, she started to talk and said the ada. when she said that you can have whatever you want. you want to sunshine, i've got sunshine for you. lauren: 20 they will be contagious. >> watch neil. watch neil. neil: thank you very much. we are up to 26 points. must be something he says. take it away. ♪

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adam: we are getting word the south carolina senator tim scott is ready to endorse donald trump later tonight at a donald trump event. we will detail you on that and the impact for ron dos santos. is my guest at 4:00. the fallout when