get that consolidation -- charles: i want to ask you about the russell, the small cap as have just been, oh, my goodness. it's been ugly, brutal, ugly stuff. what's your sign? what signals are you looking for maybe to start putting your toe in the water? or have you already? >> no. i think that the russell 2000 and small caps should have that period of outperformance as the market broadens which likely is -- charles: we have 205 on the iwm if which -- would you wait for a breakout close above that maybe to start nibbling? >> i would. also watch interest rates. when rates roll over, that's going to be your key to small caps start to outperform. charles: i've got to tell you the chart stuff, everyone's got to incorporate this. i look at a fundamentals, but you have to look at charts and these days also behaviors as well. >> it helps to take the blindfold off. charles carl you know what? liz claman always takes the blindfold off because she guides us through the last hour of trading. liz: charles, blindfold.

[laughter] charles: you said you'd nebraska tell. [laughter] liz: i wasn't the one who did. okay. nobody put the blindfolds on this entire 59 minutes because as we kick off the a final hour of trade, take it full screen, the s&p 500 is within 2 and a half points of hitting 5,000 for the first time ever. the highest it's gotten this session so far, 4,998. we're at 4,997.5 at the moment, up 43 points. either way, it'll hit a record. it just needs, i believe, about a 4 points of gains to hit its eighth record of the year, and as we watch it within -- i wouldn't even say spitting distance, i would say breathing distance of 5,000. could it happen this hour? you have to stay tuned. if the dow may very well pull off the same trick. the dow needs to see a gain of 133 points to notch a new high, we're up 187 at the moment right

now. the nasdaq is the biggest percentage gainer at the moment, up nearly 11% or a gain of -- 1% or a gain of 152 points. very top of the nasdaq 100, cybersecurity names. they are swinging from the treetops. this is an earnings season. palo alto networks and crowdstrike grabbed fortnet's baton and are sprinting to all-time highs. palo alto up about 6%, crowdstrike up 5.7. fortnet up 2%. look at meta shares. they are defying gravity, moving high higher by 2.8%, continuing their stunning run since last week when the social media platform announced its first ever dividend. and meta has if you willed -- okay, let's call it 32% higher just this quarter alone. and have you -- had you listened to dan nile ifs on "the claman countdown" a year ago january, you would have ridden the meta

wave to massive gains. that's what he said to buy. so do not miss dan today. he's going to reveal his best ideas for 2024. and why he is about to short one with of the magnificent seven stocks. okay, right here, right now there is a reason we're going to do what what we did at this time yesterday e when we hit the air with new york community bank shares imploding. that drop, if you see this morning and look at the intraday here, it continued. but after a plummeting about 7% to multidecade lows of $3.60, shares have recovered just a bit. they are back in the green at the moment, up 5.33% but still just at $4.43. okay, the turn-around is helpful, certainly, but at least to us the developments spiraline regional are starting to look an awful lot like the warning signs that unfurled a year ago right before the regional bank crisis. yesterday shares cratered 22% on news shareholders filed suit existence the company for

allegedly hiding -- against the company for allege ad hiding its commercial real estate loan losses. late last night moody's said we're cutting the debt to junk. that triggered the fall this morning but, again, coming back. up about 23 cents at the moment. the bank did reveal its loan exposure a week ago a tuesday in its earnings report, and since then shares have lost 57%. after touching a fresh low of $3.60 earlier this session, you would think that a slew of federal reserve members who were out today speaking around the country would say something about this. only one really addressed the situation and not even by that much. the situation has come about in part because the federal reserve raised interest rates to 40-year highs over the past year and a half causing dislocations in the commercial real estate loan market. "the wall street journal"'s top federal reserve reporter nick timiraos has jumped in the chair in washington d.c. i don't know, nick, we think this is important. the market is rushing to all-time highs at the moment.

look at the dow, up 202. that said, could the shivers running through the regional bank market push up the rate cut timeline? >> based on what we've seen so far, liz, i don't think so. i don't think it would have any if set innuance on the setting of interest rates here. obviously, you'd want to watch something like this carefully to see if it's spreading. i think this gets to, you know, the concerns we've been hearing about, frankly, for a long time around office commercial real estate. i don't think it's a surprise to anybody. there's going to be pain out there. i think the question here is how does this all get resolved. is this extend and pretend, you know, over 5 or 10 years and you kind of slowly digest this pick through the -- pig through the python, or does something happen more like what happened in 2007 where the penny drops, you know, bnp, i think bear closed those two subprime mortgage funds and all of a sudden people said, wait a minute, why do a bunch of

investors in europe have exposure to american subprime mortgages in and you saw it, you know, really coarsing through the financial system in a systemic way. and, you know, i don't think we know the answer to that yet. so obviously there are some banks that are going to, you know, have problems from time to time, and that by itself i don't think changes what the fed is doing with monetary policy. i mean, they hiked through a banking crisis -- liz: a year ago a, good point. they sure did. even as silicon valley bank imploded, signature bank also went -- was purchased by new york community bank and then, of course, jpmorgan swallowed up first republic. but that was a year ago. has the macro environment changed a bit? i do realize that they had continued their rate hike path all the way through last march and this regional banking crisis, but right now things are a little different, aren't they? >> the macro environment's different in the following way:

to some extent the fed put could be back here, you know, if you had enough financial instability. and i don't think that was the case a year ago. so a year ago the fed was hiking through these, you know, banking stresses. let's not call it a crisis because it, you know, it didn't play out in the worst way. and so everybody probably got lucky there. but now inflation's coming down. i mean, in march and may of last year we were still looking at 4%, maybe 5% on year-over-year core inflation. and now we're looking at a for the fed's, you know, preferred measure below 3. so the fed would have some room -- liz: a little bit of wiggle room. >> -- if it looked like the outlook were changing as a result of this. but one bank in new york with idiosyncratic problems isn't enough to -- liz: ah, that's where i get nervous, nick. well, let me just say this because you had three fedheads out today, tom barkin, you also

had susan collins of boss -- boston and then the fed governor, adriana cueingler, she was the only one who really kind of talked about it. and specificically she said we're keeping a close eye on regional bank exposure to commercial real estate and, quote, watching commercial real estate as a source -- source of potential financial stress. we've all been doing that for a year and, you know, little, mini earthquakes here. but at a some point is there a straw that breaks the camel 's back? >> yeah, i think that's the question everybody's asking. i mean, one other point that i think is relevant here gets into with bank m&a policy which is, you know, we have banks that have challenges, and jay powell went on "60 minutes" on sunday night and said some small banks may not make it through this. and so they're either going to fail or they'll need to be absorbed. and nobody, you know, there's a political climate right now that a says the biggest banks shouldn't be getting bigger. and i think, you know, nycb is an example of where the trade-off is. so they absorb the assets of

signature bank, they merged with another bank in '22, and they got big. they're above $100 billion now, and we're seeing maybe there were some challenges there as they got bigger. if you want to restrict, you know, the ability of the biggest banks to get bigger, there was a lot of unhappiness when jpmorgan bought first republic. you talked about a it on your show. you know, i think that's going to be a challenge here for regulatory policymakers, is how are you going to resolve these small institutions, and, you know, do it -- you want to get the most money for the taxpayer when the fdic gets involved. you don't want to create even more too big to fail, but you also don't want to create new messes in these newly-large institutions. liz: got it. nick, stay with us. i want to bring in gary with kaltbaum with of kaltbaum capital management because this is the market, the equity piece of it. gary, nobody's worried. i mean, we are now within 2 points, i'm watching this, 4998, a second ago, of 5,000 for the

s&p. the dow is about to hit yet a new record. well, it already is there intraday. does any of this concern you, or are you saying, you know what? don't fight the tape, let's go into some of these big tech names. >> the regional a banks are weak, and they're not affecting the rest are of the market. the nasdaq's been narrow aring in how many stocks are going up, but the stocks going up are en fego. nvidia broke out of a 6-month range, we bought the heck out of out. it's up 200 points in a month and change. that led e to amd, facebook, microsoft, and it's leading to other software names. right now you're seeing the software security. and there is a somewhat broad-based in here. you're seeing some financials acting well, you're seeing some retail acting well. i just go where the money's flowing, and right now it's just, it's a big wow with. i don't usually use those words too often. i hope i don't jinx it too much. liz: you are very, very focused on the worries and the concerns

that nick and i have been talking about. gary, i hope you're taking some profits at some point, are you not, in some of these big names? >> we've taken a little bit off the table, but we think a move if's aa foot here, and -- a move's afoot here and there could be a bunch more to go. i don't think we're ever going to see a 1999 again, but we're getting a little bit of that. and sometimes the big money follows big money and disregards any other issues out there. you know me, i can't stand what's a going on with the debt and deficits -- liz: liz exactly. >> there's so many things to worry about with commercial real estate, and and i think it's worse than what's out there. i think there's going to be a lot of writeoffs, a lot of buyouts, a lot of takeovers and all over the place. but i watch the market, and the market dictates to me, i don't dictate to it. liz: yeah. >> and so far so good, and i just is hope it continues. liz: and, again, don't fight the tape. that said, nick, i -- it's clear from what richmond fed president said and what boston's fed president said today that

they're not ready, nor is jay powell, to declare victory on inflation. that seems to be the appropriate stance at the moment because we saw the jobs report for january which was 300,000 plus. craze i number. crazy number. but you're pretty convinced that any rate hike in the future, a hike is off the a table? >> it's hard to see right now what would bring them to hike, you know? the hawkish option from here is just to push up the cuts. and, you know, obviously i'm sure there are scenarios in which they would have to go up again, but that doesn't seem like it's on the table right now. and, in fact, yeah, there was a lot of fed speak today, there was a lot yesterday. i think you're hearing more unity from this committee than the you have in some time. even the hawks are saying we probably don't need to hike again. and even the doves are saying we don't want to declare victory. i'm not saying this is going to last for a long time, but at least for right now this seems like the most unity i've heard

from federal reserve officials in at least a year. liz: i'm looking at about a 67% odds of a rate hike in may. that's lower than it was a week and a half ago. quickly, gary, go ahead. >> just watch the 10-year yield. it's been dictating also. the fed's behind the curve again. they have room to drop. we're at 4.1 on the 10-year, they're at 5.25, 5.5, they can dump a half a point, three-quarters a point and just be fine. if the 10-year yield spikes toward 5 again, all bets are off. but so far, so good. it seems we're a little range-bound now. liz all right. my eyes are glued to the s&p right now. 4998, very close to 5000 for the first time ever. nick, great to see you. gary, always a pleasure. >> thank you, liz. liz: we appreciate it. three media rivals make a huge splash in the world of sports streaming. a new sports bundle linking fox, warner brothers and disney's espn, balloons to give viewers a buffet of ball games.

should investors cheer the news? citigroup's jason bass net on whether the deal will be a winner for fans, for the stocks involved, both or neither. by the way, it's already swamping a stock that is not involved. one of the names left on the bench. we'll show you which one when you come back. fox reported earnings before the bell, disney's after the bell. warner brothers discovery reports february 23rd. "the claman countdown" has so much more to come. we're back right after this quick break. ♪ ♪ dad, we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. yay! we got this. we got this! life is for living. we got this!

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xfinity 10g network is made for streaming live sports. because it's only live once. join xfinity rewards on the xfinity app or go to xfinity1stand10gs.com for your chance to win. liz: fox business alert, shares of live sports tv distributer fubo plummeting 22.7% after three of the biggest names in

entertainment announced a joint venture to launch a new sports streaming app. and fubo tv not one of them. disney's espn, warner brother's discovery and fox announced they will combine forces to unveil a new, as of yet unnamed streaming bundle for sports fanses. customers of the new service will be able to watch dozens of leagues' games including everything on your screen, nfl, nhl, mlb, mba a, formula 1 and the upcoming fifa world cup. at a time when viewers are scale ising back their streaming subscriptions, how will they embrace this one? citi group's media and entertainment analyst wrote about this bundle possibility a year ago a, and today it has happened. jason, what do you think of this blockbuster announcement? >> i think it's really important. you know, our original idea was that sports fans were being underserved because they either had to buy a very expensive bundle that included everything in it, or they a had to go

around and buy sick or seven apps to get all of -- six or seven apps to get all of their sports. and the simple observation was if the media companies got together and put sports in a more narrow, less expensive bundle, it would be a winner in the marketplace. liz: okay. these are three bitter rifles when it comes to landing sports deals. the -- rivals. what do you think brought them to this point? >> well, i think there are, by our estimates, there are 20 million american households that would identify themselves as sports fan fruits do not have a pay tv subscription. i think it's an unmet market. and so the belief was each of these companies went out and did something individually, they probably wouldn't capture the interest and excitement of the sports fan because there wouldn't be enough sports under the umbrella. so coming together and forming a jv as they did mix all the sense in the world. -- makes all the sense in the world. liz: it's like, and i'm one of these people where i have

subscription fatigue. >> yep. liz: and for real sports lovers, if you look at the pricing here, the nfl, if you want to subscribe to the nfl premium offering, $14.99 per month. and then say you also adore major league baseball, that's $100 -- sorry, $29.99 a month. national hockey league, that's my sport, absolutely love it, $0.99 per month. -- so 10.99, why is it cheaper in it's more valuable. and nba, $14.99, that's the streaming area. i just wonder, a, what do you predict the pricing will be of this new bundle, and when you aggregate everything, does it make more sense to have the new bundle or these individual ones? >> well, our estimate for the price point is around $45. for this new package if. i will tell you what a lot of institutional investors are saying, they're saying, well, that doesn't really work because if i buy this package at $45 and let's say it encompasses about

55% of all u.s. sports rights and i go out and on top of that i buy, let's say, paramount+ and on top of that i go buy peacock, you're sort of getting to the same price as a youtube tv. and my bet is a little bit different than that. i think the call crust -- calculus is there are enough sports fans that a want most sports but not if all a sports. and that's who this would appeal to. there's a second dimension which is if you out there bidding for future sports rights as a media company, it's very difficult if you're with only sort of monetization that you have visibility into is the declining linear ecosystem. so anyone in this jv is going to say, well, i have a digital way to monetize, a linear way to monetize. that, i any -- think, is an advantage when it comes to bidding for future sports rights relative to those that aren't part of this jv. liz: you mentioned paramount cbs, obviously, has march madness, the big ncaa tournament is just around the corner. that wouldn't be included. so you would actually have to

buy with whatever packages that would encompass, right? and so i'm just wondering, does it really move the needle? and do you have a predicted name for it? if are you hearing anything? [laughter] >> i haven't heard anything on the name. i think it does move the needle. i mean, i don't know what percentage of that 20 million households will sign up for this, but i i think it will be meaningful. you know, not 20 million, probably not 0 million, but i think somewhere between 0-10 million. the interesting thing is the marginal cost to these media companies is close to zero for this. they already have the digital rights. liz: they do, they do. i don't know, if part of it looks to many people like a survival move, do you see it as that at a all? [laughter] >> well, i think it's -- yeah, a little bit, but i think it's more of a backup plan. i suspect what mr. iger over at disney, what his, what his real desire was, was to have everybody wholesale their sports rights to espn, and and then es espn+ would just have the customer relationship, the building relationship are. and i think the other media

executives were sort of uncomfortable with the notion, and so this is the backup. liz: one last question. do you predict a news bundle at some point where rivals come together and bundle their news offerings? >> yeah, look, i meaning i'm a huge fan of the bundle, and so i would predict a news bundle. i mean, bundling, it confuses a lot of our clients, but economists understand what this is. what bundling does is it reduces heteroare yes nayty meaning someone might love fox business, they sort of like nbc, they don't care about cnn, someone else might have a different composition of utility. and when you put all three of the channels together, you end up flattening the demand curve. that shrinks consumer surplus and allows media company to generate more revenue and profit. you're on the right track. liz: the pass aword friction nightmare that i just cannot deal with. [laughter] jason, thank you so much. calling for about $45. i guess we'll know soon whenny reports after the bell. stories lamenting the cost of mcdonald's big mac meal

going viral on social media. well, you're going to have a cow when you find out what exactly is driving up beef prices at mickey d's and the grocery storeful we're going to take you live to the appropriately named sandwich illinois. yes, look at our friends, the cattle, to talk to a cattle farmer about the rising cost of meat. plus, snap, crackle, flop? shares of snap are on pace for their largest percentage decline since 2022, down 34%. what is the biggest issue here? we've got the details next. the s&p just within about 3.5 points of 5,000. you've got to stay with us to see if it happens. ♪ ♪ ( bell ringing) customize and save with libberty bibberty. liberty bushumal. libtreally blubatoo. mark that one. that was nice! i think you're supposed to stand over there. oh am i? thank you. so, a couple more?

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liz: fox business alert, americans have a growing beef with beef prices and restaurants are starting to feel the burn and passing that on to customers. earlier this week mcdonald's sounded the alarm, or cow bell, if you will, that lore to even middle income customers are tightening their wallets when it comes to they -- their menu orders, and then ingredient prices have to go up. the big mac, $12? this is going nuts. beef and veal prices are up 8.7% in the last year, and that in turn is pushing up the price of meat if patties. to sandwich, illinois, where fox business' kelly saberi is live on the adams' family farm to find out what's causing the meat price melt-up.

i want to know, kelly. >> reporter: yeah, it's a great question, liz. and there's a few reasons for it. i've been speaking to alan adams who has worked here for many years, this has been in his family for several generations. tell me, why has it become more expensive to buy each of these cows, and what are the numbers looking like? >> well, we're paying $300 a head more this year than we did just a year ago. and the reason is because of the dry weather out west for two years. ranchers have hick by dated their herds -- liquidated their herds because they didn't have enough pasture. consequently, we're forced to pay more, and now that's starting to translate into the grocery store. >> reporter: we're seeing already higher prices. now the usda says the cattle inventory is at its lowest number in 70 years. when can we see the effects of what the report says? >> well, if the ranchers get the rain they need and now the price is high enough so they've got

the price signal they need to start expanding their herds, then it'll take even then another two years before the beef that they'll start creating this year finally makes it to the supermarket. >> reporter: is there a concern at all about people choosing other types of proteins at this point, maybe pork if or chicken? >> well, that's a big concern of ours now. when we are compete being against pork and chicken -- competing against pork and chicken, finally we price ourselves out of the market. so all of us are concerned with that. but we can't change mother nature, and until the rain starts we just have to be patient. >> reporter: thank you, al alan, i really appreciate it. we might see even more increases at this point over the next two years, liz. liz: kelly, i don't want to say thank you because i love me some filet mignon. more expensive now. fox business alert, investors are showing quite the

appetite for chipotle after the company beat analyst estimates for fourth quarter profit and sales. the mexican grill chain said demand from wealthier customers for its burritos and rice bowls helped boost revenue. that was enough for more than a dozen brokerage firms to raise their price targets on the stock. in fact, citi raised its price target from $2,699 to a street high of $3,016. the stock is up 7.6% to $2,678. amgen, the dow a's biggest loser at this hour by a long shot, after a brokerage firm downgraded the stock from outperform to market perform. the firm is concerned that poor test trial results from amgen's new weight loss drug candidate mean it won't be a viable contender in the highly competitive weight loss medicine space. the biowith pharmaceutical company did beat fourth quarter profit estimates after its acquisition is of horizon

therapeutics, but the stock is pulling back by 5.5%. a sunnier outlook for solar energy company enphase energy. it is blasting to the top of the s&p with a gain of 16.333%. the company said it expects demand to improve through 2024, so oppenheimer raised its rating from perform to outperform, and ever core jumped in raising its price target from $115 to $125. the stock's at $117 even. snap though, as we mentioned, tanking at the moment, down 34.9% after reporting that it missed on revenue estimates for the fourth quarter. that the marks the sixth straight quarter of single-digit growth. the social media company also forecasts larger than expected losses for the first quarter as it struggles to compete for ad dollars. the parent of snapchat has not rebounded from a slow 2022 advertising market and, of course, peer meta has done brilliantly. so what's the problem here?

snap at $11.35, down $6 and change. while snap gets snipped, rival meta hitting a record high as it gets its meta moment when it comes to digital ad a sales. top tech investor dan niles had named it his top 2023 pick. what what a win that was. what about 2024? we're going to ask him that and his other tko picks and pans. yeah, he's ready to short at least one name. he'll tell you which one. plus, oh, what a story of legacy. imagine if muhammad ali were your father and then you said, dad, i want to go into boxing myself and you were a female. well, his daughter laila ali did just that, and muhammad ali was completely against it. so how did she go against her dad, the greatest boxer of all a time, and become the greatest female boxer? if yeah, you've got to hear her story. how she blazed the path for

herself and for her family even as her father disapproved. she shares her journey if as a nail artist -- yeah, she became a manicurist first, okay? if so how'd she get to the boxing career? you've got to hear my everyone talks to liz podcast on apple, amazon, spotify, i raid joe -- iheart radio. stay tuned. s&p within about 5 points of 5,000. could it happen in we've got 25 minutes left to trade. ♪ ♪

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liz: okay, s&p intraday, guys, we're at 4,997. never been to 5,000. we've gotten very close, to 4,999 just about, what, 6 minutes ago or so? -- 16 minutes ago or so. so we're watching it closely. the worst performer year to date on the s&p, tesla. and it has been a rough quarter for tesla.

the stock has swooned 25% amid if weak sales growth and as ceo elon musk admitted, serious competition in the ev space. and now a report from bloomberg says tesla could be looking at layoffs after a it canceled performance reviews for employees and asked managers which roles were crucial to its operations. i want to bring in a a man who went if being bullish in 2022 to exiting his entire position in the ev maker and now is poised to short the stock on any bounce. satori funds senior portfolio manager, founder dan niles joins me now. does that the include today's, what, 1% bounce? [laughter] >> that's not much of a bounce. liz: i know. >> no. i mean, i think big picture if you think about what's going on, liz, with tesla, last year the entire tech stocks, they all went up as a group, and it didn't matter what was happening. so if you look at tesla last year, the estimates for the december quarter they reported went down 50% over the course of

the year. the success doubled. the stock doubled. no one cared. and you could say the same thing for apple where their estimates came down, the stock went with up 48 percent. but this year for whatever reason, turn of the calendar year, of what have you, both tesla and apple's stocks are down for the year to start, and both estimates are going lore. so -- lower. so i think this year you're starting to see some differentiation between the teslas of the world where the numbers keep going lower, and you've got a high pe multiple of over 60 times. apple's, you know, the high 20s, versus guys that are actually beating and raising like a meta or an amazon where amazon's up over 10% and, you know, meta's up over 30% and nvidia, which everybody knows is going to beat, rah raises up over 40%. after tripling last year. so i think tesla is now dealing with the fact that, unfortunately, the fundamentals have been deteriorating for over a year, and they still look like they're deteriorating.

liz: at what price? it's at 188 right now. what price before you say, okay, i'm now short again. >> well -- [laughter] i'm not going to get into that, but what i would say is that i tend to look at a just technical levels and relative strength indexes, and so it has a lot to do with how they rise. and don't forget, it's a balanced portfolio, so i have longs like a meta and others against this. liz: well, yeah. >> when it got oversold -- liz: and the scarcity premium is gone for tesla. i mean, every company now put out evs and hybrids. so we see the problems for tesla. you mentioned meta, that was your big pick last year. what a win. had viewers, who were watching you many january a year ago, they would have made a lot of money if they bought on your advice. aside e from meta at the moment, well e, let's just get to that at least. are you still at has -- hot as you were last year on the stock? >> yeah. coming into this year we had -- we put out our top picks, and meta again was one of our top

picks for this year. that along with amazon, i think amazon's the other one of the magnificent seven as they were called. amazon's the other one where i think it can do well. meta is using a.i. to help with monoiftizing their ads and also -- monetizing their ads andal what videos you might want to watch. amazon, they're going ahead and launching ads on prime video. you're seeing a very strong uplift in their margins. we think estimates for amazon can double from 2023 to 2025 on a gap basis as they put much more through their infrastructure which is overbuilt during covid. so those are the two of the magnificent seven that we really like, and is they both beat numbers handily, and forward estimates went up unlike an apple or tesla. liz: you're not as enamored with apple. tim cook did say they might have a new, big announcement if regarding a a.i. you don't love the stock, but could you change your opinion of it if that a.i. announcement is

somehow something that just blossoms into a real value-oriented play for the bottom line? >> well, you've got to remember this is not a value stock. the estimate's been coming down for over a year. pe's high, in the high 20s, and they've a got a much bigger problem with a.i., it's called huawei. so huawei, don't forget president trump cut off chips to huawei back at the end of 2019. they just launched a new phone with all, with chips excluding the u.s. huawei used to be the second biggest smartphone manufacturer in the world, and they're a gaining back a lot of share. samsung already has phones out with a.i. capabilities on them, and foldable category is doing actually quite well as they've sorted out some of the screen crease issues. so that's the real issue with apple. the a.i. stuff obviously, it's going to be just table stakes. every phone's going to have one. but apple right now is behind in having a.i. on their phones.

liz: dan, do you see recession in the cards at all, really quick? >> the only thing that makes me see a recession in the cards is the fact that i don't see a recession in the cards. [laughter] and what i mean by that, liz, all kidding aside is if you think of the last three years, consensus has been wrong. 2021 the thought was, well, invest in innovation regardless, and it won't matter what you pay for it. then ark a innovation funds underperformed the. by 50%. look at 2020 to 2 -- 202, well, the big cap stocks will be fine, the magnificent down -- seven were down 46% last year -- sorry, 2022. and last year in 2023, they were up 111% when there was no recession when we all a thought there would be one. so this year i go, well, i don't think there's a recession, or i'm looking for a soft landing, but so is everybody else. that's what makes me nervous, that's why i'm watching the tape. liz: yeah, i know. you've got to stay on your toes when you're an investor.

it's great to see you, dan. please come back. >> thanks, liz. liz: stocks are charging to record highs. will steady eddie names push them to new levels? up next, our countdown closer has three particular stock on his 2024 list. not sexy, but slow and steady. he says you need them. 13 minutes to go before the closing bell rings. the dow's up 167. s&p 500 5,000 check, we're at 4995. we'll see if it happens. ♪ ♪ this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

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♪. liz: blackrock ceo, larry fink told fox business back in january that the federal reserve would wait until june to start cutting rates but something more than just recent stresses on regional bank balance sheets. we talk about new york community bank could judge and nudge fed chair jerome powell to cut-rates sooner than that says charlie gasparino. what else about the regional banks? >> not just me saying it so we're clear here. i'm not a economist. i talk to a lot of sophisticated economists, market people and here is the case for them cutting sooner. you kind of see this in the markets.

markets have this resiliency. part of it is based on fed rate cuts. regional banking stuff is an issue. the balance sheets are still kind of screwy. larry fink has said that repeatedly on our show. number two you gaysally have the way the fed's balance sheet is arranged. we essentially, have the treasury sort of sold a ton, frontloaded borrowing with short term debt, never locked in with long-term rates. so you have to roll over that debt. you have to roll over it at increasingly higher prices if the fed is raising rates or not cutting. so that's another impetus for cutting rates sooner rather than later. i think the third you do have an issue. it is percolating somewhat in those regional bank stocks, regional bank balance sheets but also in the major of commercial real estate. commercial real estate is very problematic. looks like the rate cuts, they

are definitely come this year. i think you can almost guarranty it is happening in june but there is a consensus out there to some extent it could happen sooner. this is why the story is interesting, not just how you play it on the market. by the way, rate cuts short term should be probably good for stocks, okay? there are two sort of things in the mix that you really do have to consider, are prices really coming down enough? is the real data coming on inflation showing enough significant improvement to cut or how does that play into this whole thing? now a lot of people say no, i mean you know, inflation is still there. prices are still high. the rate might be coming down but we have not gotten a sort of deflation where average people can go out to buy a ham sandwich, well that is cheaper than it was six months ago. it is not. inflation is not going up as high. liz: as quickly. >> or it's not, the rate is coming down.

the prices and it is still going up, the prices remain high. liz: it is called disinflation. >> well disinflation is when the prices come down. >> that is deflation. liz: disinflation we have a slower rate. >> we have a slower inflation rate. the problem prices are still sticky high. that is one of the problems. the other problem powell has is this is an election year. i mean, you know, you start cutting 100 basis points like do a full point in an election year in june whoa. liz: i think larry fink is going to be right. i just do. i think they wait until june. nick timiraos from "the wall street journal" was at the top of the show remember through the march regional bank crisis last year the fed raised rates and the world survived. so we'll see. >> but he's got, he's got tremendous pressure on him from powell, from the white house and he has caved in the past. that is number one.

number two, you still have -- liz: caved to trump. >> he caved to trump. he caved to biden. he said inflation was transitory and the numbers really showed it wasn't. james gorman, of morgan stanley, said it was transitory, went out to dinner, don't believe the word he said. inside money knew it was not transitory. he caved to biden. will he cave to yellen now? the other thing he caved to trump obviously. the other thing what you have now, you don't have then is this balance sheet issue, lots of debt being rolled over on the short term which is very expensive. liz: thanks for flagging us. >> more than a flag. i'm telling you this is maybe the most important story in the markets right now. liz: that's why -- charlie, thank you very much, charlie gasparino, closing bell, we are three minutes away. s&p 500, now about call it eight points away from 5000. still hitting an all-time record high today, on pace for a record close. dow on its way to the 10th record close of this year.

markets seem quite happy. financial insights firm cfra just unveiled its best in show aristocrat dividend stocks for the year with obvious names like mcdonald's and wal-mart and looks at four names specifically in health care, abbvie, abbott labs, medtronic and west pharmaceutical. our "countdown" closer likes two names on the list in a roaring market on the list you know what? go with names with modest gains but have the secret great dividend sauce. crescent founder, cio, founding partner, jack ablin. okay, which two? >> we like who is it abbott labs and medtronic and actually j&j is really does qualify as a dividend aristocrat but certainly not on cfra's list for some reason. oh it is on there. those are mind.

so, here's, the theme is really twofold, liz. one is quality. quality, quality, quality. that is really the underpinning of all of our equity and bond selection at crescent. and really the, the thesis is, follows, quality as a factor, trades at a market multiple. you're able to pick up quality on your income statement and on your balance sheet without actually having to pay up in the equity marketplace. in fact two years it was trading at a discount. if you think about what charlie's been talking about, what some of the geopolitical events that could potentially flare up it's going to be a flight to quality. everyone is going to want to own u.s. assets and everyone's going to want to own u.s. quality assets and we're holding a lot of these quality names at a market multiple. liz: you know what i like about

these, they're not roaring type of stocks but you do get paid to wait with that dividend. jack, you're focusing on dividends. why not going with something like the utilities? they have not been great performers but their dividends are bigger? >> yeah. so here the theme here isn't so much dividend-payers like the utilities but the dividend growers because the reason is utilities and a lot of the big payers have been bond substitutes and in an environment where rates are really, really low that makes sense but when bonds can actually offer you decent yield, bond substitutes aren't quite as great. [closing bell rings] liz: jack, love the idea. very interesting to have you especially with that very, you know, focused perspective. we are so close to hitting the s&p 5000, not there. too close to call. see you tomorrow. we'll see if it happens. larry: >>