stuart: what a question. how much of your teeth are in your gums? supposedly said a quarter, a quarter of your tooth is inside your gum or 3 quarters outside? what is your answer? ashley: the brits and teeth questions again. i would say number 2, third. lauren: i'm thinking of the size of the root. i will say half. stuart: i'm going with number 2, one third. the answer is one third. thank you. another tooth, your teeth are like fingerprints. it is completely unique, even identical twins don't have matching teeth. thanks for being with us. coast-to-coast starts now.

neil: nikki haley will stark about the state of the race. she is not quitting and there are no signs of that. to the state of a market on wall street, not so much for buyers quitting, more like fidgeting this first day after a long weekend. what else is going on here? >> first day when a major drawdown in tech stocks. they are focused on where interest rates are coming or when they are coming. rate cuts in march, we saw six rate cuts in 2024, futures show four rate cuts. it's interesting to note that our reaction when the fed starts cutting rates, they split into two periods, rate cuts are not what markets want. since 2000, rate cuts came with

an average 5% drawdown in the s&p in the following year. there's a 20% rally. it is just the market figuring out where we are in relation to where we were historically. equities are feeling that out. neil: nvidia shares are down 6% or 7%. earnings are tomorrow. could be a market moving event. what do you think of that? you cited how technology stocks are taking it on the chin. we've not seen this young trading here. >> nvidia's earnings, the event of the week, people don't understand how big these tech stocks have become. the market of the magnificent seven combined would be the second largest stock, bigger than china, double the size of

japan. microsoft is bigger than the entire stock market of france. these are effectively the stock market. what happens will set the tone into what happens the next month or two as markets are at an all-time high and we have a very fluid backdrop right now. neil: a lot of people are chasing technology stocks. that strategy can't go from the sky. what would you tell people who own these stocks? would you hang on to the more start easing up on a couple of them? >> we owned these stocks since 2022, holding onto a lot of these positions, hedge to the

downside, this is not the market you want to call a top on. every time someone tried to call it has been wrong and costly because not only are you losing but markets are going higher. we are keeping tech stocks, maintaining a long exposure, the s&p is heading higher, tech could head higher but once it starts to shift, follow the technical and manage your losses and your risk. you don't want to hang onto these things once the rush starts letting up. i am not saying we are having a blow off top, but with any market there will be pullbacks. that is healthy and part of the bull market. neil: this nikki haley event. i want an update on expectations of rate cuts pushing further back. some don't have it at all this year.

>> the problem is inflation is stuck around the 3% to 4% range. we said before getting inflation from 9% to 4% is easier than from 4 to 2. the question is can we get to two when it starts cutting rates. the fed would rather cut rates too late than too soon and risk resurgence of inflation. rate cuts are coming but i don't think we will see 6 or 4. the guidance of three is a good baseline. don't fight the fed. it's a dangerous unprofitable strategy. neil: now to nikki haley, the loan challenger to donald trump. in case you thought this was an event where she would step out of the race that is not the case. let's listen in. >> whether america will thrive or spiral out. i'm talking millions of

students who don't know how to read or do basic math. families who can't afford groceries much less a first home. the total lawlessness on our southern border, the murders in our cities, the fentanyl in our streets, the children killed in their mom's car by stray bullets. i'm talking about the american weakness that led to wars in europe and the middle east and the urgent need to restore our strength before war spreads and draws america further in. these are the challenges i am here to tackle but instead of focusing on how to make america stronger tomorrow some people want to know if i'm going to cave today. we have all heard the calls for me to drop out. we all know where they are coming from. the political elite, the party bosses, the cheerleaders and

the commentator world, the argument is familiar. they say i haven't won a state, that my path to victory is slim. they point to the primary polls and say i am only delaying the inevitable. why keep fighting when the battle was apparently over after iowa. look, i get it. in politics, the herd mentality is enormously stronger. a lot of republican politicians have surrendered to them. the pressure on them was way too much. they didn't want to be left out of the club. many of the same politicians who publicly embraced trump privately dread him. they know what a disaster he has been and will continue to be for our party. they are too afraid to say it out loud. i'm not afraid to say the hard truths out loud.

i feel no need to kiss the ring. [applause] >> i have no fear of trump's retribution. [applause] >> i'm not looking for anything from him. my own political future is of 0 concern. i hear what the political class says. i hear from the american people too. i hear from an army medic who said we are headed toward disaster, american lives on the line, he knows what he is talking about. he knows we can't afford more of the same. that's why he told me to give them hell.

[applause] >> i heard from a mom who promised to email me every day and she does. she wants a return to normalcy. she wants me to keep writing for her for-year-old son. she hopes, the america she grew up in, america the strong, proud, united in purpose. i heard from a high school student who last week came to hear me speak. she asked me to sign a note to her teacher explaining her absence. after growing up amid the chaos and anger of the last few years, she finally has hope that america will make it if we make the right choice. i am constantly hearing from americans like these, hundreds a day, thousands a week and hundreds of thousands since i declared my candidacy.

they see the same polls as me but more importantly, they have the same belief as me. they believe in america. they believe america can do so much better, we must do better and they know when the country's future is on the line you don't drop out. you keep fighting. you fight harder than ever. [applause] >> that is why i refuse to quit. south carolina will vote on saturday. but on sunday i will still be running for president. i am not going anywhere. [applause] >> i am campaigning every day until the last person votes. because i believe in a better

america and a brighter future for our kids. nothing good in life comes easily. i am willing to take the cuts, the bruises, and the name calling, because the only way you get to the blessing is by going through the pain. dropping out would be the easy route to. . i've never taken the easy route. i have been the underdog in every race i have ever run. i have always been david taking on goliath. like david, i'm not just fighting someone bigger than me. i am fighting for something bigger than myself. i am used to people questioning my intentions. i will make a few things clear. some people used to say i was running because i really wanted to be vice president. i think i have pretty well settled that question. [applause]

>> other people say i am trying to set up a future presidential run. how does that even work? if i was running for a bogus reason i would have dropped out a long time ago. the rest of the fellows already did that. they had their own plans. i don't judge them but i am still here. [applause] >> i am fighting for what i know is right. i don't care what party leaders and political elites want. i will keep fighting until the american people close the door. that day is not today. and it won't be on saturday. not by a longshot. the presidential primaries have barely begun. just three states have voted. three. that is it. after this weekend we will be at four. that's not a lot.

in this we 10 days after south carolina another 21 states and territories will vote. people have a right to have their voices heard and they deserve a real choice, not a soviet style election where there is only one candidate and he gets 99% of the vote. [applause] >> we don't anoint kings in this country. we have elections. donald trump of all people should know we don't rig elections. [applause] >> americans of every belief and background are tired of our national mess. they don't want more chaos and craziness. they worry about a national collapse. if i weren't in the race we would be reading the same

storyline every day until november 5th. there would be widespread reports of americans are suffering from a bad case of biden/trump fatigue. and it would be true. a stunning 70% of the country doesn't want a biden/trump rematch. the majority of americans don't just dislike one candidate, they dislike both. as a country, we have never seen such dissatisfaction with the leading candidates. we've never had so many americans mired in pessimism and division. we still have a chance to restore their faith. i will fight as long as that chance exists. i know what donald trump is saying. he wants and election with no opponent. but that is not what the voters are saying. despite being a defect oh

incumbent, donald trump lost 49% of the vote in iowa. in new hampshire, trump lost 46% of the vote. that's not good. we are talking about almost half of our voters. what does it say about an incumbent who is losing nearly half of his party, it spells disaster in november. we shouldn't silence those voters like trump wants. they have a right to keep speaking out. trump sees this. that is why he and his allies are trying a different tack lose they are saying i am helping president biden by staying in. let's unpack that for a second. first things first, president biden is doing more damage to himself than any republican ever could. every time he opens his mouth he sounds like his mind is closing up shop.

the democrats are getting weaker by holding a coronation for biden. republicans will get stronger through a vigorous competition. [applause] >> we have plenty of time to hash this out. if the race ended today we would have the longest general election in history. there are still 8.5 months before election day. do we really want to spend every day from now until november watching america's most disliked politicians duke it out? no sane person ones that but there's another reason trump is wrong. at the end of the day, the only candidate helping president biden's donald trump. because trump is the only republican biden can beat.

the democrats know it. they don't even try to conceal it. they don't try to conceal the glee at the prospect of running against trump. they want to win. so they want the guy they have already beaten time and again. trump knows it too but he won't admit it. true to form, he is taking out his anger on others. he is getting meaner and more offensive by the day. he is trying to bully me and anyone who supports me. he says they will be barred from maga permanently. that is not the way you win elections. i have dealt with the bullies my entire life. they don't intimidate me. they only motivate me further. i've never met a bully i couldn't take on. [applause]

>> there are those who will try to paint me as never trump. that's no who i am, never have been. i supported trump in 2016, and in 2020. i was proud to serve america in his cabinet. my purpose has never been to stop trump at all costs. like most americans, i have a handful of serious concerns about the former president, but i have countless serious concerns about the current president. [applause] >> president biden has turned our country upside down. it is not normal for millions of migrants to illegally cross our border without being stopped. it is not normal for our schools to be more focused on gender pronouns then reading and math. it's not normal to have skyrocketing prices and soaring

crime. it is not normal to have wars raging in europe in the middle east, all of that is on president biden but he is not the only one who has replaced normalcy with chaos. donald trump is done that too. it's not normal to insult our military heroes and veterans. [applause] >> it's not normal to spend $50 million in campaign contributions on personal court cases. it's not normal to threaten people who back your opponent. it's not normal to call on russia to invade nato countries. donald trump has done all of that, and more, in just the past month. i have said it many times. i think donald trump was the right president at the right

time, but times change and so has trump. he has gotten more unstable and unhinged. he spends more time in court rooms than he does on the campaign trail. he refuses to the debate. he is completely distracted, and everything is about him. he is so obsessed with his own demons from the past, he can't focus on delivering the future americans deserve. we have two hugely flawed candidates in biden and trump. americans know it. they have been saying it for years and we all know why. trump and biden are two old men who are only getting older. nearly 60% of americans say trump and biden are both too old to be president, because they are. we have all seen them get confused about world leaders.

that is not who you want in the oval office when russia launches a nuclear weapons at our satellites or china shut down our electricity grid. we are talking about the most demanding job in human history. you don't give it to someone who is at risk of dementia. you give it to someone who is disciplined, someone who can work day and night for 8 straight years. no vendettas, no drama, just results. [applause] >> even if trump and biden weren't too old, and again, they are. americans still oppose of them because they know what they will do. they have already done tremendous damage and they are just getting started. biden has crippled families

with years of inflation. he has put welfare overwork and gold out more corporate welfare than any president ever. meanwhile, trump added more to the national debt than any president in history. it wasn't because of covid no matter how many times he tries that excuse. now he wants to put a 10% tax hike on every single american. just like biden, trump will devastate families and destroy good paying jobs. we need to shift our economy into overdrive, not reverse. most importantly we need a president who protects america. biden has failed this basic duty. as commander in chief he tried to cut the military. he made us weaker while our enemies get stronger. he withdrew from afghanistan in a way that encouraged our enemies to do whatever they want. three years later russia has

invaded ukraine. hamas has murdered israeli women and children in their beds. china is launching unprecedented cyber attacks on american infrastructure. iran is killing american soldiers. at the same time, donald trump has plenty of his own problems on national security. he has all but said he is going to abandon ukraine. that's a massive gift to vladimir putin. now, trump is inviting putin to invade nato countries. those are the same countries that stood with us after september 11th. of course we should ask them to pay more, we should demand it, but abandoning them will only bring more war. vladimir putin is already planning his next move. he is eyeing our allies in the baltics. a russian attack would put america at war.

russia isn't the only countries that smells blood in the water. when the dictators in iran, north korea, and communist china sea america step back, they rush into the breach. they think america's time has passed and their time has come. the truth is americans already know what president biden and donald trump will do. but just as concerned with who they are. they are dividers at a time when america desperate the, urgently needs a uniter. all they do is turn us against each other. trump calls his fellow americans vermin. biden causes fellow americans fascists. trump and biden don't just demand that people pick sides, they demand that their followers hate the other side. look where that has gotten us.

congress is too divided and broken to do its job. families won't even talk to each other at the dinner table. we are separating into opposing camps that view each other as un-american if not downright evil. these are dangerous times. the most important thing we can do is regain our focus and shared sense of purpose. the worst thing we can do is become more distracted and divided. the reason i am running, the reason i continue to run is to remind everyone what it means to be an american. i am the proud daughter of legal immigrants. i grew up as a brown girl in a black and white world. i number our state move beyond hatred and the lecture the first female minority governor in american history as a conservative republican.

[applause] >> and in just a few days, my parents are going to cast their vote for their daughter for president of the united states. [applause] >> i have thought this week about what that means for them, the america i know and love, we disagree strongly, but we do it without hating each other and still have the same shared national purpose. in the america i know and love, we respect freedom, the rule of law and refused to use the awesome power of big government to punish those we dislike and we recognize that america has

done more good for any country in the world. it is not america first to withdraw, it is not america first to praise dictators who want to kill americans. it is not america first to bankrupt social security by doing nothing to fix it. and in fact, it is america last to keep losing one election after another to the socialist left. that is what we get with donald trump. i am running for president to restore a country that is strong and proud. that is why i will stay in the race after south carolina votes. to my beloved fellow south carolinians, i ask that you stand with me. stand with your family, friends, and neighbors, see the america i see and remember that we can still unite and move forward together. not with anger, not with fear, but with faith and hope, like we have done before.

let's finally leave the past behind and let's forge a new american future. this vision has guided every generation. as ambassador for the greatest country in the world. that same vision called my husband to serve in the uniform of the united states. he's a major in the south carolina army national guard. as i prepare for what lies ahead, michael is at the forefront of my mind. [applause]

>> i wish michael was here today. i wish our children, i could see them tonight, but we can't. he is serving on the other side of the world, where conflict is the norm, where terrorists hide among the innocent. where iran's terrorist proxies are now attacking american troops. this is michael's second deployment. it was hard for us to say goodbye to him the first time when he deployed to afghanistan. it was even harder last summer when he deployed to africa. as every military family knows, when a loved one deploys, we start the year long prayer. it is a prayer for their safety

more than anything else but also a prayer of gratitude. the kids and i know where michael went. he stepped up to keep us safe. not just us. he stepped up to defend our nation's freedom and our way of life. michael is fighting for the country he loves, so are his brothers and sisters in arms wherever they are stationed in this dangerous world. they made their stand because america is worth fighting and even dying 4. now, i will continue to make my stand because america is worth living for. thank you, god bless you, god bless south carolina and god bless america. [applause] neil: this is the first time we've seen nikki haley get emotional in a speech. she is usually very focused, stoic, but this time some of

that criticism donald trump had of her husband, michael haley was not appearing with her on the campaign trail saying, quote, on a number of occasions where is her husband? always away. what happened to her husband? today she explained that he is a military service member serving this country abroad. this was touted as a chance for nikki haley to lay out the state of this race. she said unequivocally that she refuses to quit, not going anywhere, alluding to the fact that she sticking through this through at least supertuesday, when we are looking at 21 states with 874 republican delegates at stake to get a vote. as she pointed out, south carolina on saturday, big primary, this is the home state where she's trailing donald trump considerably. the only four states that voted

representing a fraction of the population to say nothing of a small fraction of republicans nationwide. that are case. is cleared donors sticking with her right now. whether that exists up to super tuesday is anyone's just. i want to go to bill mcgurn, former speechwriter for bush xliii, julia manchester with national politics. this is the first time she got emotional on the stump. people will maybe seize on that, some favorably and others not coming in defense of her husband. i wonder how that resonates. >> i thought she spoke very well. that's one of her pluses. she's very well spoken in the debates and so forth. the honest thing is no one has

any business telling her to get out. if a candidate stays in and gets backing it is their right to do so and since she is not getting a majority of the vote i don't see -- such an irritant to trump. and some of her speech she didn't recognize reality. she talked about political elites, the people giving trump the victory are republican voters and she doesn't seem to me to make a big dent in that she mentioned 49% of voters in some of the primaries voting for someone else i don't think she will come anywhere near that. the reason for staying in, to derail donald trump from the ticket, the same way plenty of things could derail president biden. not going to come from the primaries.

didn't come from the debates. it comes from his legal woes and all sorts of minefields and she could argue she's the best person to defeat biden. it's not automatic she would be chosen as a substitute if trump stepped down. she makes a good case. bernie sanders is only well-known today because he ran against hillary and stayed in. neil: he doesn't get the criticism for age issues even though he is older than president biden. let me ask a little bit about follow the money with these candidates too, continue to get strong support from donors, all four continue in this race no matter what happens in south carolina but two weeks from now on social super tuesday she's got to win some delegates along the way to derail donald trump.

at this early stage, i hasten to add you need 1215 delegates, donald trump had 67 delegates, she had 37 or so. that's a long way. so i get what she is saying but it's all about momentum, saying a former president, in these early states, his winning by landslides in each of them so how does she thread that needle? >> you are hearing haley's allies say once she moves into states after south carolina whether it is michigan, virginia, supertuesday states with independents voting and people outside the party voting, more of a moderate republican base, they are relying on that but absolutely right this is about momentum.

as of now anything could happen but the polls are to be believed, she doesn't have that momentum coming out of south carolina. we could see a switch from other voters coming out. a lot of people would say that's wishful thinking. the conversation i have been having with strategists and operatives and gop primary world, what is nikki haley's end game, running for vice president, she always said she doesn't play for second. he also ruled out the idea that she is setting groundwork for 2020 or future run down the road, that leads me to believe we are all speculating, that's what politics is about, speculation, that may be this is a run in the case that donald trump is somehow hindered from running whether it is age, health, even legal problems, these are

hypotheticals or there has been the idea floated, she doesn't have a place in trump's republican primary. is there an avenue for her somewhere else? she says no. and no labels, for their candidate but she appeared to rule them out or her campaign has but there' s been some chatter about could there be a place for her outside the republican primary, this speech seemed republik and primary centric so i've no reason to believe she would go down that avenue but we are scratching our heads thinking what is the end game? what is her theory going down the line? neil: you have written speeches for george w. bush. she had to reframe this. you need to keep refraining about she reframed it in light of what people are thinking about, the money people who are financing her now say i am in

this race to win it. it's a herculean task but i am in this race to win it but she obviously mentioned donald trump's legal cases, but without saying it, break the glass, i am your person but the other candidates in the race suspended there campaigns. there is a legal nuance when you suspend a campaign, you can an suspend it. she might be the only active candidate in the race but others would jump in if that were to happen. >> they certainly would but she would have a good claim that she stayed and fought when they bowed out. that is her hope, that trump gets derailed from the ticket in open convention and they choose her, making a strong argument that she is better equipped to represent conservative republican values

against president biden and i thought her speech was effective on that point. long odds. to me it is not going to come in the primaries, but who knows with donald trump, so many surprises and legal issues that it's not unreasonable to assume something might happen between now and the nominating convention the leaves an opening. again, she could make the argument you guys gave up and i kept pressing the case why i was best against president biden. neil: i want to thank you very much. we are following the fact that we are four days from south carolina, supertuesday, 21 states competing for all this attention, 874 delegates up for grabs. that brings you closer to the 1215 you need to win this thing. you don't have to be einstein,

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looking good, guys! thanks! vacations are better with the credit gods are on your side. i'm coming up! rewards once available to the few are now accessible to the many. earn points for travel with credit one bank, and live large. >> i refused to quit. south carolina will vote on a saturday. on sunday i will still be running for president. i'm not going anywhere. [applause] >> i'm campaigning every day until the last person votes because i believe in a better america and brighter future for our kids. diane: kaylee staying in the race.

there were questions about the state of the race she was planning today that she might opt out especially with the suffolk poll that shows are trailing donald trump in her home state by 30 points but she has moved on, break glass candidate, in case something happens to donald trump. andy mccarthy knows those challenges as well. the former assistant us attorney, fox news contributor. she is without saying it hanging her political hat on that possibility. this guy could imploded by and the are backup. how realistic is that? that these cases drag on, he is so distracted, he could even be facing a conviction in a criminal case that might make trial light of day. >> i think he is imploding.

we haven't even gotten to the criminal cases yet but he's in dire straits as far as civil judgments are concerned even if you think as i do that there are severe questions about the second case in terms of the exorbitant penalty of 83.3 million that was imposed and mind-boggling good, out of proportion, with the wrong alleged fine that was ordered last week in the civil prod case. even if you think there were questions about the damages on appeal, appeal is not free like a criminal case where you get to appeal. you have to post the assets and interests in order to go forward with the appeal.

he was found liable on january 26th which means next week he's got to file a notice of appeal, you get about 30 days and the, that's going to cost him $90 million. he doesn't have to pay it all in cash, he can post property but that's a big nut. then, 30 days from last friday's verdict he has to post to appeal the end verdict so there's a lot happening there and all of these things, criminal allegations and financial straits he is now in, importantly affect his ability to do business going forward which is not a small thing. in 2,020 -- it. 20 those are great distractions but finish that thought. >> i knew you were going to ask me.

in 2021 forbes did an assessment in terms of financial debt load in the coming years, estimated it was one. $3 billion at that time and big payments were coming into thousand 20-2023-2024. that was before the civil verdicts. he is under a lot of strain. neil: that his money he has to put up as the appeal process begins. he's tapped a lot of supporters to pay for a lot of legal woes. it will go up substantially. talking $400 sneakers, thousands on ebay right now, go fund me pages started on his behalf but that is another complication, is it not? >> i don't pretend to be a complete master of the

esoteric's of campaign finance laws but whatever rationalization he has been used to use campaign contributions to pay legal fees, there's a hard-line with respect to judgments. he has to go into his own pocket and his own assets in connection with judgments. this is more your side of the street than mine but all these insurance companies and financial institutions that are counterparties of his, publicly traded corporations that have stockholders that management has to respond to and to the extent that there are escape hatches in their contracts in the event of the trump or a normal counterparty would have criminal convictions or civil judgments engaged in fraudulent activity, you could get activism from the shareholders

in those companies objecting to continuing business relations with donald trump so it could become difficult for him even absent the restrictions the judge put on him last week, it could be very hard for him to find people to ensure him and make loans to him that he needs to do business. neil: to say nothing of continuing to run for president of the united states. which gets us to why nikki haley is staying in this race. the possibility her opponent implodes. not too soon to say we are piling up debt in this country by a massive amount. the guy who tries to keep track of it, the congressional budget director is next. maybe rich ist reaching a magic number... and more about discovering magic. rich is being able to keep your loved ones close.

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adam: the congressional budget office director with the news of nikki haley speaking am robbing you of precious time but i want to talk about the state of debt in our country, records keep piling up. there doesn't seem much action on either side to address of them. where are we on it?

>> interesting listening to ambassador haley talk about challenges facing the country and debt is one of them. the debt is just under 100%, going up in our projections. net interest outlays is rising and in ten years it will be much larger than we spend on defense or non-defense discretionary spending. neil: is stunning to think interest payments alone will exceed what we spend on defense. how did we get here? >> we have more debt and higher interest rates, 2 thirds higher interest rates and one third more debt, rising share of interest payments and makes us more vulnerable. with more debt, interest rates go higher, it's turbocharged with interest payments going up. neil: henry refinance with pricing and mortgages or is that tough because a lot of that is locked?

>> we've done that to some extent that the duration of the treasury debt portfolio has extended. the treasury is moving it down slightly making it a little less long-term basically back to the historical composition. the challenge, moving back towards short-term debt is poor pricey. you get higher interest. neil: do you see an economic boom like we had with high tech jobs and revenue that came to that like that now? >> projections have a big impact on immigration on the economy and the budget. there's lots of issues with immigration, security, social issues, cost of state and local governments. for the federal government there's costs as well and more revenue because more workers,

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