shrink is stuff a problem, and you know people are getting away with that, so i just don't know if security's somewhere we want to turn over the reins. taylor: let's get a quick check on your money. the february jobs report came in stronger than expected. this is interesting, i think this is a market that does not want to be long going into the weekend because the jobs report said, hey, maybe rate cuts actually are coming on the horizon. markets are also lower for the week as well. really interesting, wild week. we wrapped up all the big earnings that we got. anyways, i'm much more angry about you haven't wished lydia or me happy international women's day. brian: well, i still have 10 seconds left, so i'd like to wish you both a very happy international women's day. [laughter] taylor: charles payne, we kick it on over to you. charles: and i share that sympathy as a well. is that the right word?

sentiment, that's the word. have a great weekend. see y'all later. good afternoon, everyone, i'm charles payne, this is "making money. "breaking right now, full of sound and tour fury -- fury, but what does today's jobs report really signify? the soft landing camp are claiming victory, but the recession camps continue the make solid points. we've got it covered for you with. is it finally time to sell those hot tech stocks? if so, what's the next big with play? what if i told you someone's saying commodities? and it was a great week for big banks as jay powell rode to the rescue, but will anyone come to the rescue of community banks? president biden demanding that the the rich corporations and powerful pay their pair share. my question is, what the heck is fair share? i'd love to hear from you. tweet me @cbpayne. plus, my takeaway on america's economy being the envy of the world. why would we change it? all that and so much more on "making money." ♪ ♪

charles: all right, so we were told last night that the state of our union is strong, but for most americans it certainly doesn't feel strong. and if it is strong under the current tax system, why are we being asked to upset the apple cart? i want to bring in the bahnsen group managing director david bahnsen. it was really contradictory in so many ways. i fess it's tough to say this economy -- i guess it's tough to say this economy is crushing it with corporate taxes where they are, but we need to layer it up with taxes and regulations to really make it hum. >> yeah. on the one hand, the economy is good. on the other hand, this stuff is so unfair and it's killing us. i want to point out on the corporate tax rate, you brought this up, it is a fourth tax. you know, the income is taxed at the corporate level. then the people receive wages. it's taxed again. then there are stock options, capital gain. that's taxed begun. then people die and they pay estate tax. they're taxing the same dollar over and over.

the corporate tax destroys jobs and wages. charles: bottom line. >> bottom line. charles: so also, of course, this fair share which is, you know, listen, president obama talked about it a lot, biden a talks about a it. in fact, this felt like a greatest hits speech. this there wasn't anything new in it for me, per se. but i've always wondered, what is fair share? we're going to show a chart that shows the distribution of income, what a people are paying. and, you know, if you just look at this, okay, the line shows you the 1% and their share of taxes. it's just -- what's fair? if no one's ever given me a number. >> well, i believe in a much flatter tax. and i think you have to do what is politically possible. the fact of the matter is it is unfair, but it's unfair the other way. no one's going to feel sorry for the people in the 1 percent, and they're not going to want to see them pay a lower share, but the country needs to know the reality of what you just put up on the chart. it is unfair because it's too progressive. we need a flatter tax, a broader base, and we need lower taxes.

the middle class should not be paying as a much as they pay, the upper class should not be paying as much as they fay. the government spends too much money, charles. charles: another scheme is the shrinkflation thing. you know, it was interesting because a week ago wendy's sort of toyed with the idea of surge pricing, which we've seen with, like, you know, lyft and uber. and people lost their minds. they went crazy, you know? they had to retreat. they went back to sort of say, hey, we were just kind of horsing around there. but interesting, this week jay powell said e that he was okay with surge pricing, you know? and he was -- he also alluded to this whole thing with shrinkflation and all these notions that corporate greed has run amok if. >> okay. it is money of jay powell's business how many doritos are in a bag of chips. it is none of joe biden's business what uber and lyft charge at 5:00 versus 6:00. you know who cares? the consumer paying it. you know who cares in the producer either getting it or not getting it. westernty's shouldn't say they were horsing around, they should

say we were trying economic calculation. sometimes you get things right, sometimes you get things wrong. is ask the new coke in the 1980s. you try things. if they don't work, you move on to the something different. the state intervening hurts the process of consumers and producers working together. charles: so i thought about you last night because now there's a proposal to take the pax tax -- tax buybacks, right now it's 1%, make it 4%. corporations reward share holders through buybacks and dividends. if biden were to get reelected and we had a 4% buyback tax, could that bolster to pay out some dividends? >> it would. and i want to be very clear that i don't want hem to do it just because it would help my book and the way we go about doing things because it's bad policy. and this, in fairness, isn't just the left. there's guys like marco rubio and josh hawley on the right who have asked for it. punishing companies for the way they try to return capital to shareholders is wrong. the government shouldn't put their finger on the scale here. of let each company figure it

out. i believe dividends are more shareholder-friendly, or i think the data is clear about that, but i don't need washington, d.c. in my corner. we'll handle this, me and my clients, thank you very much. charles: do you think this a.i. thing has run its course? >> who knows? i guess it's retailer investor greed running amok here, right? i say it sort of tongue in cheek, but momentum is tough to slow in some of these things. they're perversely overpriced in a lot of cases, but sometimes those prices kind of level out. i wrote about this in dividend café.com today. it could just be a flat return for a long time. it doesn't have to crash. it could also adjust. charles: some of these stories are absolutely phenomenal. i've got 30 seconds, but i want to share with the audience two stocks you like. blue owl is a name you've mentioned before and also texas instruments here. semis have been on a real big run. i haven't seen texas instruments much in the mix. >> and it's been participating in the last few weeks. over the last year, it wasn't.

which is when we got in. we got it at a very low price. texas instruments just has a better story. they're not going to be something you hold on this chips act like taiwan and intel are. look at apollo and blackstone, blue owl, i think, has a path to go that route. it's a fee-based business, big dave 2ke7bd v private credit and real estate. we love the story. charles: is this a pinoff? >> it was a merger of two companies. they merged together real estate and credit. charles: hey, good stuff, man. someone to remind us how great capitalism is. although we live every it dear. folks, i want to take you to this morning's jobs report and share the word of the day, veracity. the quality of being truthful, honest or accurate. i mention this not just because it's election season and we are -- [laughter] well or, we've been bombarded with a lot of fibs, barbs and a whole lot of con that dictions. get ready for this through november, but also this jobs report like other government data, particularly these

surveys, really losing a lot of credibility. we learned that the january figure was revised lower by 124,000. that is mind-boggling. it takes out the monster downward revision of 10 is 4,000 from june. be that as it may, these numbers move policy, and policy moves markets, so let's bring in chief strategist daniel dimartino booth. just your initial thoughts on this jobs report, danielle. >> charles, since you mentioned fabrication and veracity -- [laughter] i'm sorry, the did i say fabrication? i actually looked back at the revisions. charles, from the if second to the third rescission -- revision, because there are two revisions announced for every month, from the second to the third when response rates increased, we have been having negative revisions to private non-farm if payrolls, charles, since december 2022. that's a long time. charles: it's a lot. i mean, that's why it's so hard the take the number at face value. i don't care what it is, tell me it was a million because in two

months from now, it's 102,000. and the thing is, markets ping-pong all over and, you know, some folks take out the ping-pongs and they start cheering -- the pom-poms, rather. it's really nuts. you know, it's just really tough the see how you could even be an investor with this sort of thing. and, again, to your point, so many -- so few take the survey. but here's what's interesting. the establishment side of it feels like it's more of a reflexion of real life. >> -- reflection of real life. >> it is. and part of the reason for that is severance pay. google spent $2.1 billion in 2023 on severance. if you're on severance, you're not actually reflected in the non-farm payroll, that great big number that they love to talk about on the white house lawn. but you are reflected in the unemployment if rate. and that has risen from 3.4%, the low, to 3.9 even as we've seen hundreds of thousands of americans give up looking for work. but that 3.9% number, i think,

much more reflective of reality, would certainly be north of 4% which is not good in an election year if they were accounting for everybody who's given up. charles: all right. so, you know with, one thing is with your work you're always ahead of the the curve, so i wanted to get a feel what's on your radar right now that maybe no one's talking about. >> look, charles, we've had almost 200,000 layoffs announced in the first two months of this year. you've got to go back to 2009, 2009, charles, to see job cut announcements of this magnitude. so whether or not the statisticians inside the beltway want to acknowledge that's happening on the ground, corporate america is absolutely cutting jobs, cutting heads. and i want to see the spin coming out of washington, d.c. that now is going to have to convince americans that inflation and joblessness are

both tugments of their imagination. because that's what we're being told. charles: so the initial reaction to these job, to the jobs numbers, stock futures went up, bond yields went down. now the stock market is easing down and futures are going up. seems like, you know, some second guessing going on there. where where does that put us vis-a-vis the fed? if soft landing, hard landing, no landing? what camp are you in. >> well, i'm in the camp that jay powell chooses, cherry picks the data that he chooses to cite. he will cite this headline job creation figure all day long and on sunday if he can push out the first rate cut til july. i think that's his goal. he's one of the few people in the united states of america who realizes that fed if policy's gone too far and that they have too big of a presence in the bond market and that he needs to do whatever he can to keep shrinking this balance sheet even if it's referencing data that he knows is not telling us the truth.

charles: right. well, you know what? i appreciate the mission that he's on then. danielle, thank you very much. have a great weekend. >> thank you. likewise, charles. charles: new york community bank really was in the news bigtime this week. it has been all over the place, down another 8% now. regional banks in general are starting to really struggle there. but the large ones are doing extraordinarily well. we've got a really bifurcated banking system, so we brought in the best to break it all down for us. erika najarian next. ♪ i'm going off the rails on a crazy train. ♪ if i'm going off the rails on a crazy train ♪ is less about reaching a magic number... and more about discovering magic. rich is being able to keep your loved ones close. and also send them away. rich is living life your way.

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charles: all righter folks. to say it's been an eventful week for the banking industry would be an understatement. the biggest and perhaps most positive came from jerome powell pushing back on basel iii capital requirements. i want to bring in erika najarian, powell saying the sort of broad overhaul, you know, it was obviously music to the ears of bankers, right? i mean, it's so weird because banking 01 is the cd that you lend out money -- the idea that you lend out money, you don't sit on it. where it's going to go from

here? >> exactly that, charles. what he said about basel iii softening, let's interpret that to main street. essentially, the regulators are saying we're going to have less available capital for small businesses, less available capital for consumers and card. so i think chair powell's actually doing the right thing in terms of making sure the flow of capital is going to not be blocked especially given the cycle in the economy. charles: now, the other big news, new york community bank, you know, had that one session, it was down 40, came back when mnuchin came to the rescue at least temporarily, but it puts the community banks back in focus because the big banks are doing extraordinarily well. these much smaller banks, you talk about lending to small businesses particularly in the heartland, what what's the prognosis right now? >> look, i actually think that that was good news for the rest of the community banks because it essentially circumscribed new york community as its own issue, right?

charles: right. because the markets were holding up that same day. yeah. >> exactly. now, that doesn't mean that a there are not issues in community banks especially if the fed's not going to cut til later, right in i think the community banks, you know, do need a to lower ratessal at some point -- rates at some point to be more profitable. you can now say new york community was an exception, and you don't have to essentially worry about dominoes, so to speak, the way we were doing in 2023 when those banks were failing. charles: all right. so no contagion -- >> correct. charles: the fdic quarterly banking profile came out this week. i went through it. and, i mean, listen, this is a few things. you had a bump and a problem, i think 6 is banks. not -- 16 banks. one thing that was standing out to me was the change in quarterly credit loss revisions. it's a little bitty thing, but should we be worried? >> so, look, i think that credit has been so good for so long that it has to normalize higher. but a couple things were happening in the fourth quarter.

remember, that's seasonally awesome for card growth, right? if and the more you have, the more you may provide for future this is losses even though those losses are not there yet. charles: right. >> and, you know, you obviously have a lot of cleanup that usually happens in the fourth quarter, and there were actual commercial real estate losses being cleaned up in the fourth quarter. for all the infoe we were getting from the banks, small to enormous -- charles: so we've got the chart up right now. you're not worried about that small, little -- i mean, it's small compared to some of the larger spikes, but it's been relatively flat for a while. >> yeah. i'm not very concerned about that because as a you can see in 2022, you had pretty significant reserve building, and so you had stabilization for the rest of the year, and now we've had growth in card and some commercial real estate losses. to me, that's entirely normal to the revision curve. charles: last night i thought about you, and i know it's kind of weird, but president biden said something and i said, you know what? i wonder how this is going to

affect this junk fee rule. they've already kind of started something already, but they've got really grand ambitions to go after what they call junk fees. how would that the impact the industry? >> it's a big deal, right? the more diversified you are away if just card, the better you can fight it. so let's just put some simple math on it. essentially, the final rule is saying that instead of charging you $41 or $30 for being late, i can only charge you $8. so that's pretty significant because there are a lot of sort of subprime, near-prime lenders that make a lot of money off of those fees. charles: also wouldn't that embolden -- not embolden, but if i know i'm capped at a, you know with, once i'm late, i'm late or whatever, i just feel like it's risky for the consumer if it's going to create bad consumer behavior. >> i am so happy that you said that, because there could be a disincentive. you're like, whatever, if it's $8, i'll be late, right? so that could impact your credit score. i don't think that was very well thought out, and i think that's what, you know, the card

companies and the banks, you know, tried to implore upon the cfpb, but obviously it fell on deaf ears for now. charles: less than a .to go, maybe 30 seconds. we've got community banksing regional a banks and then what we call super regionals. >> yep. charles: the super regionals are acting super today. >> one, they kept their net income interest guidance for the year -- cut -- and that's really huge because there's a lot of volatility in the forward curve. and second, this is the goldilockses print for super regional banks. you essentially had an unemployment print that was good but not too hot. so the 10-year, essentially, was pretty stable, but then we repriced june as a cut back in the curve, and that upward curve is fabulous for super regionals. charles: well, you're fabulous too too. have a great weekend. thank you are very much. >> thank you. charles: the bank stuff is always fascinating. all right, folks, by the way, is it time to end fed chair's questioning by lawmakers?

[laughter] okay? or at least someone give with him a guide before he steps in, because you won't believe some of the questions that he did ask. tweet me @cbpayne. we're going to talk about it right after this. ♪ >> there is an urgent need for us, i would think, you know, and we're running out of time for us to do everything that is in our power in congress to support ukraine. >> i wouldn't have an opinion on ukraine funding. ♪ ♪ after last month's massive solar flare added a 25th hour to the day, businesses are wondering "what should we do with it?"

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>> will there be some announcement at some point that we've had a soft land rahing? >> i'm not -- i don't think by us, no. [laughter] charles: i'm sorry. [laughter] i wish they would make the announcement. we wouldn't have to do all this guessing. [laughter] okay. anyway -- [laughter] we always have to guess when there's a soft landing. i mean, powell takes something of a victory lap, but we have to interpret it as that. anyway, listen, another member of congress, you know, god bless 'em, they come out and they ask a variety of questions. they're not requesting great -- asking great questions, and we really don't get a lot of out of it except the occasional laugh. that's why we bring in great folks like economist and author, melanie friend. all right, wouldn't it be great, i mean, have you -- if they just said, oh, here we go, we hit it.

and the fred says the u.s. economy hit -- the fed says the u.s. economy hit a soften polanding. that's why it's so tough, the interpretation. you listened to the conversation of me and erika, and you think maybe she's too sanguine about what's going on with the banks. >> yeah, no, exactly, because i see a commercialing loan crisis brewing. i see an injection into nycb, i see powell worried about what else will come. regional banks basically holding 70 otter of -- 70% of the loans. but i had your same reaction to what happened in congress. i literally saw powell do that, and i just thought it was really or or really funny because he cannot commit to anything really. charles: right. right. i saw, for instance, apollo has a great chart, and it shows the break evens, one in two years. that's signaling a spike in inflation which some of the more recent cpi and pce do did as well. that's a whole conversation no

one's really having. >> that's right. and what's really interesting about that, i was thinking about that today when i paid $6.25 for a slice of pizza and a water at just a little hole in the wall pizza place in new york. inflation for actual real people is really high. a can of soda, up 64%. potato chips, 16 ounces, we talk about the inflation, up 40%. rent's up 30%. the real, actual person doesn't live in core pce. the real, actual person lives in actual food prices and rent prices and utility increases and gas prices now back at november prices. so that's the problem. of if so powell's looking at this do i take a victory lap or not on inflation? i'm going to take out everything that that matters to actual, real people and then the white house is also ignoring how real people feel about the real economy. there is inflation, there has been inflation. it depends on who you ask, where you look and how it feels. charles: yeah. and i think that's been a big disturbans for the white house, the white house and the media the last half of last year actually chastising main street

like you're too dumb to know how great you have it. and people are like, are you kidding me? i don't have it that good. with that in mind, i've always been worried was they taking a regate data, think about this for a moment. if the aggregate data has to get really awful for the fed e to change course, we're essentially saying rich people have to start feeling the pain. but by the time a rich person feels the pain, what does that say for the other 90% of society? >> that says that the economy can look okay and not be in a recession with respect to growth in gdp because what's inflating gdp is debt. i'm just -- charles: sure, sure. >> it's like a big old balloon, and the helium is actually debt. so the real person has high credit card costs, high rent costs, high interest costs. the white house has high interest costs. our debt's at $34 trillion. all of this makes the economy look better than it is. so the rich person can -- on this because they can make the payments or deal with the wealth that they have in a different way.

but the actual person for whom the debt is at their actual -- charles: right, right. >> -- it's a lot harder. it looks like we may not have a physical recession in terms of negative gdp for two quarters, but it means gdp could grow and grow and grow because debt grows and grows and grows, and then it actually falls off a cliff and then we have a crisis period. charles: and once it falls off the cliff, there's no coming back -- >> we're in 2008, 2009. charles: right. whatever terra firma is, you're going to hit and land on terra firm massachusetts before i let you go, in this jobs report, you also say this is where it's sort of masked a lot of areas of weakness that are a concern. >> first of all, we talked about the 3.9% which is back to pre-covid levels. vacancies for people looking for jobs are down to 1.4 versus 2 which they were right after covid is. we're still placing covid people, and most of the jobs are creating in more of the subsidized public sectors like the government and some of the health care sector. and we're seeing higher layoffs than we've seen since 2008-2009.

you put that all together along with all these downward revisions we now keep seeing, or you're not really looking at a very healthy, stable employment picture. charles: naomi, great stuff. that's why i love having you on. >> thank you. charles: all right. want to bring in market rebellion cofounder jenna square, because in the -- jon najarian. you better make a whole lot of money in the market, okay? [laughter] and the smart money's been buying these call options. one he's been being is on coining, right? let's talk about some of these ideas, because this is what we came here for. talk to us about this position here, jon. >> sure. charles, as as you know, the coinbase trade is really based on bitcoin and the surge that it's had for the past call it 40 days or so is. and any other digital asset including etherium. coinbase, of course, one of the largest cap stocks in the space that's not a miner.

these guys aren't just micro strategy, they don't just buy bitcoins. these guys are basically a broker and an exchange. so today, charles, they were coming in buying the april 250 calls. that's with coinbase trading at about 54. -- 254. just a little bit in the money, but this trader who has been doing this and it's certainly the pattern, looks like it's been the same trader over and over again, they've been buying since the stock was 150. and they come in and buy mass quantities, like 15,000 options. that's 1.5 million share equivalent. so these are really big buys, charles. and whoever this person is has been cleaning up on digital assets. charles: i want to ask about tesla. you know, tesla's so intriguing. we had nancy tengler on yesterday. she went out to one of the gigafactory, right? she's blown away. she wants to own this stock. that's owning it.

we know it's a volatile stock and when it goes down, it tumbles for a long time, but when it goes up, it's really amazing. do you like this one here? are you seeing a lot of action on this onesome. >> i am. and, full disclosure, i was already longer dated or leap options in tesla. those are options that are struck in january of 20 that d2025. but in this case today, charles, we saw big buying at about the $177 level with the stock now at $175. so i bought the 175 calls. i'm looking for this stock to push perhaps back to 200 by that april expiration, because that was the expiration. as you and i always a talk about, the two great things about options are, number one, they tell you time frame. april. that's where the smart money was buying. the second one, what strike price. they were buying 177s all the way up to the 200 strike, charles. so does it have to get there for us to make money? no. but we do need some pumps to the

upside instead of those downward thrusts that you were talking about earlier. charles: talking about smart money, i just want to share with the audience your heat seeker system, right? i know january 16th number one in your system was invisible -- nvidia. you saw this big trade, the 2377 million -- 237 million. then there was another big with trade. and, of coursing now the whole thing, we're talking about $1.4 billion profit the $1.7 billion. but your system, the seeker system, kind of finds these things, and you share them with us. and, i mean, if someone -- even though it's late, i guess the question i'm asking is even though you were in january and you guys are up a gazillion percent, is it too late for someone watching now? >> no. and, in fact, i think you got a nice pullback today, charles. i know you've looked at it and seen how much it's pulled back from that whatever it was, $965 or whatever the high on the day is. pulled all the way back to about

$910 a little bit ago. and so i'd say that9 if the smart if money and, as you said, the smart money that our computers picked up was buying in january when the stock was $500. it was buying in february when the stock was $700. they are still buying now, and they've invested over $1.4 billion worth of options. that's a ton. these guys don't buy like a 5-lot or a 10- lot are. they buy 30,000 at a crack. so that's 3 million share equivalent when you're talking 30,000 the options. that's how you get to these big numbers. but these guys have made $1.7 billion so far on this bet, charles, and i'm thinking it's probably one of the largest hedge funds on the street. i don't know who it is, but i tell you what, they've been right, right and right, and that's why i like to follow them. charles: that's why we like to follow you. jon, thank you so much, my friend. appreciate it. >> i always love ya, charles. thank you.

charles: my next guest says inflation can still turn higher. but what does chocolate have to do with it? erin gibbs will explain right after this. ♪ ♪ ain't it fun living in the real world? ♪ anticipate it good -- ain't it good being all alone? ♪ much? nahhhh... (inner monologue) another destination wedding?? we just got back from her sister's in napa. who gets married in napa? my daughter. who gets married someplace more expensive? my other daughter. cancun! jamaica!! why can't they use my backyard!! with empower, we get all of our financial questions answered. so we don't have to worry. can we get out of here? i thought you'd never ask. join 18 million americans and take control of your financial future with a real time dashboard and real life conversations. empower. what's next. if you spit blood when you brush, it could be the start of a domino effect.

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charles: all right, so there's a little profit taking. you just had jenna jane talking about -- jon najarian talking about the mag seven blowing out some well deserved steam. but overall, my next guest says it may finally be time to sell the mag seven. now, what will we replace it with? commodities? if all right. joining me now, main desperate asset management llc chief investment officer erin gibbs. so i know gold brock out, all the gold bugs are having a good old time. [laughter] strike up the lawrence welk bands rain everything else. what else am i missing in commodities? what else is moving? >> with so the big thing on the commodity side is one of the headlines is cocoa was up 30% in february. so that's, obviously, a big jump. but we've seen some big mauves upward in a lot of the

industrial metals, aluminum, steel, all of your precious metals, platinum as well. but this is just overall following a similar trend in that we're seeing going from new defensive like the mag seven to, like, the real old-fashioned, old school defensive of your metals and commodities. and the other side of the coin besides just the defensive trade is that we're really seeing inflation really start to creep back in -- charles: right. >> and so if -- and as much as the fed if says we like to ignore food and we like to ignore energy, we're just seeing that it's so pervasive that we're seeing a lot of these commodities rise, we we think there is going to be potentially a negative if surprise coming forward. and and, of course, that changes the fed, that changes equity expectationations. and so i think investors should just be prepared potentially to hedge against a downturn in equities if we get disappointed by the fed changing their dovish

stance. charles: you know, guys, put that chart back up from apollo because i just had this conversation with nomi prins, powell put up this chart of the one of two break evens spiking. suggesting not only is inflation out of the picture, it's reaccelerating. >> right. and if we look at -- [audio difficulty] a broad commodity index, it's up almost 6% year to date. that's a big move. and that's something we should be concerned about because commodities make up about one-third of the cpi, inflation measure. charles: right. >> it's something you should be aware of. we've already seen two sort of disappointing readings in the cpi this year, and it doesn't look like it's getting better so far. we're just seeing more negative signs. charles: and i think probably this week we're going to see is, speaking of traditional safe havens, i think utilities and statements will probably be the best performing sectors this week in the s&p. speaking of which, you're saying

there's some potential hiccups, not black swans, but stock investors should be wary of. >> right. and part of this is, so, the fed changing their terms, being aware of -- being even more risk-off going into those more defensive and these types of issues. and we're also seeing that really those market cap weighted, the high growth stocks are very overvalued which means they're just, they have more risk. if we do see disappointments, if we do see the fed change their terminology. that is a risk that is just getting bigger and bigger, and you should be aware of -- aware. if you don't want that downside or that big disappointment, there are ways to hedge that. charles: now, of course, before i let you go, you always a come up with some interesting things. you may not be buying, but you always have something intriguing on the radar. >> yeah.

i really do see more of that commodity trades and commodities going up. there are two etfs that are really easy the take advantage of the futures. you don't actually have to get into commodity options. gld, the gold etf, tracks very well with the futures, and bcim, it's the bloomberg industrial metals. i know not manager you would normally look at. -- something you would normally look at. but, begun, another good hedge if we keep seeing these prices going up. they've been doing very well, and i don't see a break in the trend. i think this is something we could use to hedge -- charles: -- something on the industrial stuff. all the money that's ooh to coming into this economy, you know, from all of these things that have already been passed, we're talking billions and billions of dollars. i think you'ren on to something there. all right. have a great weekend, erin. it's great seeing you. >> thank you. charles: my next guest says there's huge weakness -- not just wobbliness, but huge weakness many today's jobs

report. joe lavorgna's going to break it out. he's got a bunch of red flags. stay tuned. ♪ i need a hero. ♪ i'm holding on for a hero til the end of the night. ♪ he's gotta be strong and he's gotta be fast -- ♪ and he's gotta be fresh from the fight ♪

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with the power of ai. your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire (vo) what does it mean to be rich? maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number... and more about discovering magic. rich is being able to keep your loved ones close. and also send them away. rich is living life your way. and having someone who can help you get there. the key to being rich is knowing what counts. charles: the jobs report filled with tons of economic data. economists are sharpening their

pencils. he does say the february employment report, now former chief economist, joe, i thought it was weak too but you are the expert. what makes it week in your opinion? >> a couple things which we have revisions of one hundred 70,000 in the past two months that matters because it continues to trend. jobs are revised with better data coming in and we've made the point to clients that if you look a lot of other data the payroll numbers were probably overstated by a good number because of these faulty messages. one was revision and the second one is temp hiring that looked like it might be turning a corner in january got revised into negative territory, february fell, we are now down 23 consecutive months and that matters because temp hiring is

a good gauge of future labor demand and you have a massive difference between where private jobs aren't temp hiring is and in the past, that gap was followed by payroll data meeting temporary data and the other point is the unemployment rate, we lost one hundred 80 jobs on household side and most importantly the on employment rate went up 50 basis points. we've triggered a 50 basis point threshold on the rate, where in the past that has always been consistent with recessions and given what we are seeing in terms of the housing market and the inevitable pullback we are going to get in construction jobs, the rate will go above 4% and hard for me to think that we will not have something that feels and looks like recession if unemployment is up 60 or 70 or 80 basis points. charles: why not? i find myself being more

intrigued by that data. we have a chart on the screen to the audience showing this is a 4-month moving average, shows we are in recession already. should this be a bigger story? >> it should be. wise the household data better? economists don't like the household data because it's very volatile and indeed it is. what makes the household data good other than seasonal factors, doesn't get revised but because every month bls queries a new group of people it tends to be better at inflection points than establishment data which rely on depth adjustments which we only know if they are accurate after the fact, benching payroll data to tax receipts. the household survey is

potentially picking up and inflection point in the economy, certainly the labor market. charles: you wrote about financial market indicators, the monetary policies adequately restrictive right now. let's talk about that. >> listening to your other guests talk about inflation, it's a risk but given the commodity markets are down 20%, the yield curve is more inverted from the fed hikes, the dollar is up, basically 20-year moving average. for those looking at the 1-year inflation breakeven or 2-year inflation breakeven they are looking at the wrong data. that number is distorted by seasonality in the inflation numbers. this is important. investors ignore the breakeven rate. it's not accurate. you look at the 1-year inflation swap which adjusts for the role in seasonality and that's not showing the

inflation. inflation could pick back up, there is no evidence as of yet it is happening. look at the rate this week and what that implies, it is a 5-year low which is another sign that it's faster than people think. charles: the great resignation is over, the great i'm going to stay here and do the job is back, thank you. it is a lot for us to understand but it's important because our audience wants to do this the right way and you have to understand the economics. thank you so much. >> have a great weekend. charles: let's go to the state of the union, president biden proclaimed that america's economy is the envy of the world and we should pause because that might have been alone point anyone could have given a standing ovation. it has been for a long time and

will be if we don't self-destruct. we could be on top for a while. here's the reality. president biden is pushing an agenda. over borders, skyhigh taxes, they allowed their militaries to aggravate, there's no innovation at all, that's the miracle lost drug. it would not be an accident if america slips there. we are the envy of the world, we follow their lead. think of the great things about

being the most prosperous nation in the world, when you're born here you have a chance that it changes the course of your life. president biden last night talked about new businesses. under donald trump, here's what they have in common, these entrepreneurs know they can take a risk because taxes are low. even if it is billions of dollars and with that sort of impetus, you get the innovation is an american thing. the ai miracle, it comes with prosperity. we love to share with others, we did it through charity, anyway we can including my show and liz claman's show. liz: i'm not sharing my chocolate. charles: prices argo