investors kind of weighing is there a rate cut coming, is there not, what does that mean, or and that leads us out where we are for the week. markets are cautious ahead of the fed's 2-bay policy meeting -- day policy meeting next week. i think right now we're becaming for three rate cuts, but we know for sure we probably won't get one next week, it's mostly a june or july story. jackie: we weren't down as much this week as much as i thought we were. it felt like we were down a little bit more, and i don't think that rate cut is coming. i'm putting my money on that. i think it dropped the odds from 70 to 60 president. taylor: -- 60%. taylor: yes. right after that cpi data. brian: markets a little bit optimistic, in my rue. taylor: charles payne is optimistic along with these market. "making money" starts now. charles: thank you all very much, have a great weekend. gad -- good afternoon, everyone, breaking right now, stocks

continue to stumble along here. there's a sort of sense, you heard the 1:00 show, that this cockiness is fading just a little bit. buyers are waiting for a bigger dip, so you have got that no man's land. but with wareful -- careful what you wish for. remember, today is the eyes of march -- ides of march. somehow the ides of march and the god father seem appropriate particularly when our u.s. debt eventually could derail the nation. they need an offer they can't refuse. meanwhile, there are probably other potential black swans, and larry mcdonald knows a thing or two about that. he's here to tell us what we should be watching for. and shocking new real estate development broker commissions are about to get slashed, or should i say whacked, in theme with today's show? what does this mean for the if housing market and the economy? major ripple, folks. plus, record amounts of cash continue to pour into bitcoin,

natalie burnell, she predicted all of this. all of that and so much more on "making money." ♪ ♪ charles: a week away from the vernal equinox, spring begins. right now there's a sense that maybe the overarching upward market bias is beginning to tilt the other way. of course, nobody's running for the hills, but the veneer of invincibility isn't what it was the a week ago. we're already seeing weakness in the so-called magnificent seven names. a lot of them are just underperforming mightily. there's also a some rotation happening which, by the way, is a good thing or should be, but this leg of the rally that began in late are october -- late october of 2023 on hopes of six or seven rate cuts by the federal reserve, you know, had to shift gears and became different, right? it became clear that that wasn't going to happen, so the

rationale shifted to, you know what? let's keep the rally going because the economy is getting strong, the strong economy will give us strong corporate earnings. well, you know with, it's better that the market in my mind climb on the earnings growth story, right, than the fed pumping free money into the system. in the last couple of years in particular, we saw last year, rather, and then this year we saw most of the growth in this market has been primary ally there from multiple growth, right? so it's imperative that we start to get something happening on the bottom line. now, here's the bad news probably on that front, earnings revisions are now beginning to turn lower. and the economic data continues to miss the mark. so i want to bring in rob luna from luna if wealth academy founder. rob, know you're in the buy the dips camp. here's the thing, a lot of dips come on and they say buy the dips, which is fine, but i've seen guests who have done that the whole year, and the implication is our audience can't buy every dip. so two things. how big does the dip have to be

before you actually pull the trigger? >> yeah, it's a great question, charles. and i would say in terms of buying the dip, it's these big tech names that are leading that we've talked about for a long time being the future growth names that you want to be in. i think today you're probably going to hook for a 10-15% decline. 2-3% is normal movements. if you're a long-term investor, you want to dollar cost average on those 10-15% declines. charles: what about a name like tesla? a huge, significant pullback. we know the ev story has sort of deteriorated, but they always a had this sort of special place because,let's face it, if you wanted an ev for the most part, you've been buying a tesla. >> yeah, no, i agree. i think the problem9 and the challenge with tesla, we sold our position quite a while ago, is like you said is, i think the narrative really has changed and the future for ev, i don't think, is going to be nearly as bright especially if you get a change in administration which i think will happen this year. for me, tesla at a current valuations really doesn't make a

lot of sense, you know? i'm probably in the minority say hag, but i'm not really interested in the future of tesla over the next year. charles: let's talk about the future everyone's interested in, and that's artificial as well as. we're starting to get a weird backlash, right? if adobe is getting smoked for the most part because it doesn't have an a.i. strategy, in fact, its business may be hurt by a.i. jbl, they reported last night, that stock's getting smoked. they mentioned a.i. more than two dozen times on the call. so it just feels like welcome no longer throw that a.i. dart, so how are you playing that space? >> yeah. one of the stocks i'm looking at i talked about a before, charles, ui path. this is a company that has an executive from sap, google, really broadeninged the platform of what that company can do. the reason i'm talking about it now, today, is because they just reported earnings yesterday. that stock was actually up aftera hours about 8, but because of that the inflation data, the stock wound up being down, so you got about a 15% pullback with. the stock the reported surprise

profitability. that's a name i really like right here. i think you're getting a good valuation and the private markets, charles, they're raising capital at 35 billion. it's down around, you know, just a herd of that right now. so i think -- a third of that a right now. so i think it's a good opportunity for the for the retail investor. charles: you're also a saying it's time to start paring some of these big high-beta names, steady eddies. i know one you like is kin med? >> yeah, there's a big article that just came out the other day talking about how the shortage of plumbers in the united states is going to cost the economy about $35 billion. if you look at the the biggest publicly-traded company, they've9 got roto-rooter which is about half of their business, some chemical -- some medical business in there. i do think what's going on right now, they've talked about it before, there's a possibility they spin that company off. if that happens, that stock's going to skyrocket. charles: unfortunately, you can never go wrong with roto-rooter or.

[laughter] i know you also like altria. whats' your concern? do you have any concern here? again, when the market has this much upward bias, when everyone is all in, there's not a lot of bears out there, they've been defeated, i start to get a little antsy. >> yeah, i think so, charles. in the short run what moves the markets is supply and demand, fear and greed. and i think what's happened with this pullback is you've got a lot of people that have made a lot of money in a short period of time, is so now with the fear and greed, that's going to be based off of news flow. we saw that yesterday, we're going to see it next week with the fed. so i think if the fed if is going to come out hawkish, that will send this market back probably around 10-12% if there's a difference in that, i think the market can go up higher. right now, unfortunately, it's not about valuations, it's going to be about muse flow, so we're going to have to pay attention to what the fed's saying. if that turns south, the market's probably going to go lore. charles: thanks a lot, my man. talk to you soon. although the market has been

wobbly of late, cash keep pouring in, the most since march of 20211. the question is, is it a good sign or a contrarian signal? i want to bring in nicholas, first and foremost, your research is fantastic. i really appreciate. let's are talk about this, what we are, because -- where we are, because you've been around for a while. when the market gets in that groove where it feels like it can't do go down, it on the wants to go up, do you get a little more anxious about things? >> for right now i'm not all that anxious because we're in a mid-cycle market and mid-cycle economy. it's not a recession which is early cycle, not heading into a recession, it's this broad middle. the market tends to rally for years on end with very low volatility, is so for right now i think we're okay. charles: last summer the market was starting to fall apart a little bit, it was really stumbling into late october. then thicks change9, with concern things changed. we got the first part of this, the leg of this rally was all

paced on 6-7 rate cuts. it became apatient that wasn't going to happen -- apparent, but the rally baton was passed to strong economy, strong earnings. what if we don't get either one? what if inflation stays in place? i mean, look at the empire fed number today, an unmitigated disaster. look at a the last couple of inflation reads, ppi, cpi. all of these data points suggest inflation if is higher, won't go away and is actually impacting the economy. so where's the 'em we discuss for the market to keep going up -- impetus? >> it's important to put that rally from february to october in context. it was the strongest rally by order of magnitude except for in 2018 and during the pandemic when we came off the bottom. now we're having to reset expectations. you're right, we're not going to get 6-7 rate cuts, we'll be lucky to get the 3 the fed has promised, and if we're coming down to very slow are earnings growth with. this is not a bad recipe, but it's not excitement that

generates the kind of returns we got if from october to february. i think we're in for a slow-churning, higher market with some modest pullbacks, 5% at the most, but generally still a rally mode. charles: you know, when a fair amount of guests have suggested particularly in lean years that look outside of -- recent years look outside of america, look outside the u.s. the only hinge that bothers me is the implication is always like we're the same economy with the same markets, ours just happen to be much higher than our counterparts' and so it's the their turn to rally higher. what do you say to folks who say, hey, we're looking for opportunities and someone said looked at emerging markets, this country, that country. do you say u.s.-centric or broaden out? >> we tell our clients stay as u.s.-sent is rick as you possibly can because, sure, the economies grow faster, but not one emerging market has beat the s&p over the last 10 years. not one. and emerging markets overall, you have 3% a year for the last 10 years. they don't make the kind of

companies -- charles: that's the bottom line. >> that's the bottom line. charles: it's so weird to me that that somehow they're due because they've underperformed t been a decade and counting because we've been that much better. >> off the bottom, it works because they get so depressedded and then the relief comes out. one or two years out of ten you can make some money. the other eight years, a disaster. charles: so before we wrap it up then, is there something bothering you at all? is there something lurking out there that we should be wary of? is the there -- portfolio composition, you know, of course, are people too a.i.-heavy? if what's bother bothering you right now that is lushing in the back of your mind? >> -- lurking in the back of your mind? >> the real die name if i can in this market has been to see larger companies outperform smaller companies. we see it in the s&p, and a healthieral ally would show some of to middle-tier companies more love and and get those stocks working. right now we're still a little too risk-averse. understand write so.

i want to see that rally extend down the cap chain. charles: cool. i appreciate you taking time out. have a good weekend, nick. all right, folks, my next guest says the fed has no other option other than to become hawk you should. nancy davis is here to explain. buckle up, folks, we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ i bought the team! kevin...? i bought the team! i put it on my chase freedom unlimited card. and i'm gonna' cashback on a few other things too... starting with the sound system! curry from deep. that's caaaaaaaaash. i prefer the old intro! this is much better! i don't think so! steph, one more thing... the team owner gets five minutes a game. cash bros? woo! i like it. i'll break it to klay. cashback like a pro with chase freedom unlimited. how do you cashback? chase, make more of what's yours.

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nationwide wireless that works for you. switch to comcast business mobile and save big with up to $500 off an eligible samsung device with a qualifying trade-in. don't wait call, click or visit an xfinity store . charles: my next guest wants to help investors understand the risk within the bond complex, right? we always have folks who come on and talk about bonds all the time. there's -- it's not just one bond, folks, there's a lot of things out there. but it's an opportunity for you not only to learning but maybe make some money. i want to bring in portfolio manager nancy davis. nancy, let's begin with that because it's great we were talking about, you know, the laddering bonds and bond risks and how, you know, again, a 01-year bond -- 10-year bond is not the same as, say, a note or something else. i think it's important because we have seen a lot of folks looking for yield outside of equities. money markets at $6 trillion,

but people are looking for other alternatives. >> absolutely, charles. it's a really tricky time out the will because anytime you have a bond, you have exposure to interest rates. and so what's happening now is if you look at the 10-year, it's 4.30 whereas the policy rate is still 5.25. so the market has really priced in that bond rates are going to be cut. and inflation data, so far we had six cuts when we started the year, now we're down to three cuts, but i think a lot of people could be in for a rude awakening. in 202230-year treasury ross more in price terms than the nasdaq. charles: really? >> yeah. crazy e right. charles: i know there's been a lot of discussion about the old 60-40 portfolio, particularly the bond parking lot of it. -- part of it. a lot of folks have come on, go long tlt, adg which are, you know, and -- you know, i've a been concerned because these supposed to be or at least the they've been considered just

safest of safe havens. but to your point, they've been big money losers from time to time. >> yeah. all investing is always risk, and i think the big problem is do 10-year, some models say it's risk-free, but it's absolutely not. if you look at the pricing right now, you're basically giving the u.s. treasury money and getting paid less to take more risk. it's really crazy. people talk about the inverted yield curve all the time. the yield curve is massively inverted. it's been inverted for a longer period of time at lower levels than ever in our lifetime, so you look at a 1-month t-bill and you can get paid 5.30, you're basically saying, here, janet yellen, take my money for longer and pay me less to take more risk. [laughter] charles: i mean, listen, i remember when there was a negative yield, right? particularly with the european bonds. i always said why would i give, you know, people -- someone money and then pay them to hold on to it for me? maybe i understand where pension funds and those folks have to do especially, but our audience

doesn't is to do that. within that realm should people be looking at maybe having some notes in their portfolio or shorter duration exposure here? if. >> well, i think a lot of people have moved into short duration. charles: right. >> it's been prettyup popular. it's been kind of -- pretty popular. i think the issue is things like the ag index or tlt, there's no inflation-protected bonds in those indices, and i do think everything right now -- everybody right now is expecting the fed to start their cutting cycle. there are debates about whether it's two this year or three and is it going to be june. everybody seems to take march off the table, but i think owning inflation-protected bonds is pretty attractive right now because nobody's worried that it's going to be a problem -- charles: and they've gotten pretty cheap. >> super or cheap. real yields are near 10-year highs. so inflation if has been super for sale, and i think it's just one of those things that everybody should own it. but a lot of people look at what happened in the '70s and

'80s, and i like to shake people and say the inflation markets are new. the treasury only started the inflation-protected bond market in 1997, so they didn't exist in the '70s and '80s. a lot of people look at a gold, commodities, real estate or certain parts of the equity market. so i think it's ad good time for investors to be looking at their bond exproud your and having more diversification. charles: i love that. i really, really do. and, again, you know, just the sort of supreme confidence9 that the fed is going to cut rates despite the fact that data point after data point recently, no one seems, none of the experts seem to be concerned about it. and that concerns me. >> and it should concern you. i think it should concern everyone. inflation's one of those things whether you're a finance or a waitress, truck driver, we all have a limited amount of savings. we have it invested, and we hope to make that money outlive our lifetime. and inflation is the one thing, especially because we've been recipients of a strong dollar and we have the boj kind of

ending their -- they're ending their negative if interest rates, they're doing away with the yield control, and they're a big buyer of u.s. treasury. charles: so if they stop buying, china's selling, you know, the fed's not supposed the buy, they're not buying, the big, deep-pocketed buyers are gone, right? and that's one of the things -- i mean, we've had these auctions, i know we a had a 30-year this week that went okay, but you have to ask yourself -- and plus, of course, $7 trillion proposed budget. it just feel like a lot of pressure on these yields. >> yeah. but the yield curve's so is inverted, that's the crazy thing. the curve is -70 basis points meaning the 2-year is 70 basis points above the 10-year. sod think it would be the opposite -- so you would think it would be the obvious, even things like the curve in japan, the same 2-10-year on the jpy rate, that's +if 70. 10-year is not some air haven.

don't, you know, everything involves risk, and you have to be care. but it's at a great time, to your point, to add a inflation. charles: great stuff. thank you very much. all right, folks, speaking of a message, major, major news, the national association of realtors striking a landmark if deal to settle a commissions lawsuit. this is having massive ripples throughout the industry. you can see home builder stocks are much higher. we've got bill pulte to help explain et al. next. ♪ ♪ if the house is rocking, don't bother knocking. ♪ when the house is rocking, don't bother come on in the ♪ my promise to you is simple. as a fiduciary, i promise to put your interests first, always. i promise that our relationship will go well beyond just investment decisions. it's the intersection of your money and your life where we can make the biggest difference. [announcer] charles schwab is proud

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charles: with, it's being called a seismic hock to the housing market. the national association of realtors lowering their selling commission as they agree to pay $418 million in damages. now, this does seem like great news for sellers, but is it too soon to really know? well, the man who's on top of this more than anyone else a than i know, pulte capital ceo, pulte homes' former director, bill pulte. bill, thanks so much for joining us. first, let's give the audience some background on this, because i think a lot of people this has come out of left field. >> yeah. basically, this is, in my opinion, not technically essentially a monopoly, a union. the national association of realtors. basically, what they do, charles, is they fix the price, in this case about 6% of the

home price has to be allocated in order for a realtor. now, the big thing with this is basically you have 6% of the purchase price which is now up for grabs. and why is that important? it's important because what has been around since basically the early 1900s is now pair game for people to be -- fair if game for people to be able to get savings when they go if to buy a home. charles: so is, you know, i want to share with you because i put out that you were coming on. a lot of people reacted on twitter, and this is one tweet that i received, i want to share it and get your thoughts. nar doesn't charge commissions. taking commission manies out of mls doesn't eliminate them, just creates a cluster for agents and probably a ideal more lawsuits, you know will probably double and about 500,000 agents will lead the industry, so good and bad. your thoughts? >> people always lose jobs when there's disruption. this is going to be disruptive, so headline is it's going to be very disruptive. however, there is always good

things, in my opinion, that happen when things get deregulated and when things are shah deflationary. and in a world of inflation, finally there's going to be the ability to see some of these costs come down. now, are there going to be aftermath effects, are realtors going to be hitsome unfortunately, yes, but at the end of the day, this is a very good day for considers, in my opinion. charles: now, before or this ruling listings are up so far this year, but i want to note to the audience that the last three summers have seen major swoons, right? we've had this issue where homeowners have these low interest rates, mortgage rates. would be buyers have to pay a lot more. so, you know, is there a chance then that we can see sort of a shift in the listings continue to you throughout the rest of the year? -- to grow trout the rest of the year? >> i think if you have the economy keep on going, i think the stock market's obviously up, we're in an election year, the politicians and the fed are not going to necessary hi let the stock market go down or maybe

make it so difficult so it doesn't go down. i think that if things keep progressing and you get the 6% savings or at least some president of the 6% savings -- for and the other thing the builders are doing is buying down the mortgage rates. the builders have so much profit that they're able to go in and buy down those rates. and so i think you could see a pretty strong spring selling season. if you get some rate cuts, i think the thing could go through the roof. charles: you mentioned the market. one thing we have seen as a like a spike in 401(k) emergencies, folks saying, listen, i need to tap into it, 40% of them say they need to do that jutte so they won't foreclose on their homes. if the economy starts to get wobbly for any reason, what would that mean for the housing market? >> that would be difficult. obviously, anytime that happens, that's a problem. however, as you know, or carl, maybe better than anyone if -- charles, with the stocks and the 401(k)s being where they're at, people have a lot of collateral to still buy on, and

there's just a ton of money in the system. i don't see housing prices going down except for some meaningful decline in the market. charles: all right. what about going up too much? i've got 30 seconds, but bear with me. president biden talking about a tax credit, $10,000, you know, and i just wondering you know, for would-be home buy writers, with that -- buyers, with that kind of money coming in would it net-net be worse in the sense that the it pushes prices up and further out of reach for the average american? >> it could be. again, we had a big problem, as you know, with this money printing and everything and and all the stimulus stuff. it shot home prices up. so i think we've got to be a really careful gassing the system. having said that, if we can save things whether it's real estate commissions or lumber prices, what have you, hopefully those inure to the benefit of yours instead of artificial by -- art artificially pumping up the system withly quid i. charles: great stuff, bill, really appreciate it. >> thank you, charles. charles: our next guest borrows the hit song from buster point

decktive to describe inflation -- point directser the. brian wesbury. hey, brian, before i get your thoughts on the economy and hot inflation, any thoughts on this big news in the are reality market? you know, nar slashing these commissions, everyone saying that should be a good boost for the housing market. >> yeah. i mean, i agree with bill. it's like getting rid of a, i mean, i know this isn't directly regulation, but of a monopoly, it always helps market. and the prices have been high, and people have complained about it for a long time. no one has been able to bust through this, so this ruling is -- i think it will be good for the housing market. charles: so in the meantime, you point to inflation that really no one's talking about, the experts, but our audience is feeling. median prices since the beginning of the year -- >> yep. charles: super core up 4.3%, crude oil up 13%. your colleagues are saying, be

cool, chill out, it's only temporary. >> yeah. they've been saying that now for three years. [laughter] and what happened is we printed 41 more money during covid. and when -- whenever, it's hike if you have a bumper crop of soybeans, what happens to the price of soybeans? they come down. if you have a bumper crop of dollars, the dollar is worth less, and that's what it really is. your pizza a doesn't cost more, your gas doesn't cost more, it just takes -- it's the dollar or buys less. so we have to come up with more dollars to get everything. and the reason that's true is because we printed too many of them. and, in fact, it's still coarsing true the system -- through the system. everybody thought inflation was going if to be 2% this year, and it's not. it's running at 4 or higher in just about every measure i look at. this is a real disappointment, expect fed's not going to cut rates as many times as people think. finish. charles: so and on that note,

right, it's -- inflation, i don't think it can come down much because of all the federal spending that's already in the pipeline. >> right. charles: i just don't see how you can have both coexist. >> yeahing you know, charles, there are some estimates, and i'm going to include mine in there, that half of gdp if growth last year -- so we we grew a little bit over 3% real gdp for the year. half of that came from if government spending. that is completely unsustainable. you know with, john maynard keynes came up with this idea that when things are bad, we bought to run a deficit. well, he is now spinning in his grave because we ran a $2 trillion deficit last year, twice as big as the year before when unemployment was below 4%. there is no model in economics that says we should be doing things like that. charles: right. >> and that, to me, you're absolutely right.

it destroys a lot of the economy. and is one of the things that comes out of that isen inflation. charles: hey, i've got 30 seconds left, brian. i want to get your thoughts on this stock market it's been on an unstoppable glide path in part because folks think the economy's going to get better and inflation's going to go down. so far we're feeling the exact opposite lately. >> exactly. we have fomo, obviously. everybody -- you can see that in the crypto market and everywhere. people just piling in, they don't really know why. it's because they think they can sell it higher. but stocks are overvalued. and everyone believes that, hey, you know, if the economy weakens, the fed will just cut chaits and somehow we've got this perfect -- rates and somehow we've got this perfect balance and we can manage our way through everything. i don't buy that. i think a recession's coming. i think earnings are going to get hit. inflation's going to be higher hand people think, and that means interest rates aren't going to come down as much as a people think x that's a dangerous world because it

reminds me -- i don't, i'm making a comparison but not in the extreme. it reminds me of the dot.com bubble where a few stocks drove the market. it was fear of missing out led to even higher prices. and then all of a sudden it was over. now, we are not as overvalued today as we were back in 1999. but we are overvalued, and at any point the plug could be pulled on this. charles: yeah. and, listen, we learn that the hard way over and over. >> yeah. charles: brian, thanks so much, my friend. have a great weekend. >> thanks, charles. charles: my next guest bought the unloved, boring and stodgy, at least are his words, paul schatz is going if to be here to explain why that's where you want to be with your money, next. ♪ i hate myself if for loving you. ♪ can't break free from the things that you do. a

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when people come, they say they've tried lots of diets, nothing's worked or they've lost the same 10, 20, 50 pounds over and over again. they need a real solution. i've always fought with 5-10 pounds all the time. eating all these different things and nothing's ever working. i've done the diets, all the diets. before golo, i was barely eating but the weight wasn't going anywhere. the secret to losing weight and keeping it off is managing insulin and glucose. golo takes a systematic approach to eating that focuses on optimizing insulin levels. we tackle the cause of weight gain, not just the symptom. when you have good metabolic health, weight loss is easy. i always thought it would be so difficult to lose weight, but with golo, it wasn't. the weight just fell off. i have people come up to me all the time and ask me, "does it really work?" and all i have to say is, "here i am. it works."

my advice for everyone is to go with golo. it will release your fat and it will release you. her uncle's unhappy. i'm sensing an underlying issue. it's t-mobile. it started when we got him under a new plan. but then they unexpectedly unraveled their "price lock" guarantee. which has made him, a bit... unruly. you called yourself the "un-carrier". you sing about "price lock" on those commercials. "the price lock, the price lock..." so, if you could change the price, change the name! it's not a lock, i know a lock. so how can we undo the damage? we could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity. their connection is unreal. and we could all un-experience this whole session. okay, that's uncalled for. charles: breaking news for you folks, prosecutors are pushing now for 40-5050 years for sam bankman if fried. apparently, the defense counsel saying 6 years should be good new. can't wait to see what happens. meanwhile, most wall street experts are still saying inflation 's coming down each as

news stories mention the last mile in innation. look at the bottom of that chart. by the way, look when inflation came down that red line, and we've gone sideways, argue even inched higher. my next guest calls 3% the new percent when it comes to inflation. the question now though is what does it mean if for your portfolio. heritage capital president paul schatz. pawcialg okay, so i've always wondered about the 2%. i've done some research on this. i've never seen anything -- i saw something years ago, i think in the '70s, where it was 3% was de facto. but here we are, policy is built around this. you're suggesting that maybe within the halls of the federal reserve they'll learn to live with 3% even if they never officially say so. >> right. and, first of all, i agree with you, i don't think they've ever done one of those academic studies that the none of us understand and they conclude some number. charles: always take the abstract from them. i can kind of understand that a little bit and build a whole story around that. >> it's above my pay grade. [laughter] i think that in the general

sense powell and his e friends say, look, we need a buffer away from deflation. deflation's way worse than the inflation. and 1%'s not a big enough buffer. i truly believe they just said, look, 2%'s a nice number, i don't think people will be that up happy, disappointed with 2% inflation. charles: right. >> but i think they're going to have to realize they're not getting there anytime soon without recession. charles: but if people looked around and said, okay, do you like things are the way -- the way they are right now, or would you like to see the fed continue to destroy jobs and make it harder to buy a house? the disconnect between fed policy and main desperate, main street people are barely getting by. i know flakes is high, but there's that sweet spot, right? if there's that weird sweet spot where creating massive job losses is also not fun. >> no, that's worse. look, here's the problem of we have an affordability problem. if inflation ones at -- runs at zero right now, going to the

grocery store, going to the gas pump, traveling, those prices are going to remain high. there's a difference between affordability, you know, and the cost of actually living and inflation. again, inflation is trending lower, but that's a far cry from having prices go back to where they were in 201. charles: right. there's a difference between disinflation and slower, greater growth and deflation. enter that's right. charles: and deflation would be good unless it tripped over to a death spiral like the great depression and. we're not anywhere near that. i don't think that's in the conversation. on the market side though, because all of this affects fed policy, and ultimately, affects our portfolio. you made some big sale here recently and some high beta tech names. are you concerned about this whole beta thing? is the a.i. story over? >> the a.i. story's not over. charles harls okay. if this is the dot.com bubble, it's not, because these companies actually exist and have revenues and positive cash flows -- charles: not just sock puppets? >> no.

and not just a business plan either. sentiment is frothy, it's gritty like it was in january of 2020 and 2018 and 203222. but the foundation -- 2022. but the foundation's in better shape. all i did was if i owned a position, for instance, like nvidia that we bought a 2% position and it went to 3% or i trimmed off the extra 1%. charles: right. >> in nvidia, microsoft, meta-- charles: in broadcom, i read that you sold all of it. >> yep. charles: let's talk about these unloved and scorned names. i've got to tell you with, you're the third guest this week, in three days, that said -- >> uh-oh. charles: yeah. bristol-myers and fiers, maybe you're not the only ones who likes these -- one who likes these. dow chemical, chlorox. walgreens -- the i think the best thing that happened to wall green keyes is they kicked them out of the dow. [laughter] >> hersheys we lo because cocoa prices went up a thousand percent, and that's bad. bristol a and pfizer got hit

almost 6%, dividend yields. nobody if -- people do want them. dow chemical, people have no idea what dow chemical does anymore, and chlorox kind of safe, sturdy, old-fashioned, widow and orphan name. all i did is i pruned some of the high beta, in my if view, the riskier, the sexy names and said, look, i don't want to own at lot of cash yet, but i do want to own some names that are going to move in smart increments, kick off some conservative ends -- dividends, people can see and touch and it's not an a.i. story. charles: right. these are the tried and and true companies. a lot of them pay he was hefty dividends. hershey is my 2024 -- >> you need a higher dividend. charles: it's going to go request higher. they raised it twice in this year already. talk to you again soon. >> appreciate it. charles: are we making a big turning point here? if you know, we've talked a little around the periphery of this, but people are worried with about something hitting us, you know in on wall street they

call it a black swanful we've got the man who would know probably more than anyone if else, larry mcdonald, he will share what's on his radar. you want to hear this. next. ♪ ♪ get help with j.p morgan personal advisors. hey, david! ready to get started? work with advisors who create a plan with you, and help you find the right investments. so great getting to know you, let's take a look at your new investment plan. ok, great! this should have you moving in the right direction. thanks jen. get ongoing advice; and manage your investments in the chase mobile app. [ applause ] the day you get your clearchoice dental implants

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charles: well, my next guest became famous on wall street and main street as an early voice warning of the dangers in the subprime mortgage market he sub subsequently wrote a colossal failure of common sense which rocketed to the top of the new york times bestseller list and has become the ultimate risk manager manager's guide. joining me now, larry mcdonald. i do want to let the audience know you have a new book, how to listen when markets speaks on march 26th. by the way, the subtighten until, risk, myths and investment opportunities in a radically rehappied economy. s i've not to tell you -- reshaped economy. you said is it all a right there. one of my big worries, larry, is that so many folks in charge don't seem to be worried.

your thoughts. >> well, the big thing, you know, this new york community bank bombshell, disaster, it's a small bank, but it speaks to a greater problem. when the fed promises, you know, for about a year now people have been expecting rate cuts. and if you look around the banks of america, especially the super e regionals, or there's a lot of risk teams i believe -- and we with saw this in new york community bank, that were hoping and hoping and hoping for rate cuts, and hen they never came, the books are mismarked by a lot. and so the occ and the fdic went into new york community bank, and they found a lot of missed markets, then they forced this capital raise where steve mnuchin came in. so at the end of the day, there's never one cockroach. in other words, right now we believe and we with hear from our institutional a clients around the world there are looking at a lot of other super regional banks, and the way the super regionals are performing

versus the s&p, charles, is just mind-blowing. you've never seen it outside of a financial crisis. we're talking, look i -- like, 40-50% underperformance versus the s&p over the last year for some of these super regionals. so i think the fdic and the occ, they have a list, kind of a wish list of next victims that they're going to go after. charles: so, i mean, with that in find then, i mean, it sounds extraordinarily ominous. i do want to, without giving too much away, i do want to share from your book some of the key bullets with the audience. we're going to put them on the screen because we're looking at global systemic risk, global economic outlook, china being the epicenter of risk, unimagine imaginable debt. that's hard -- amazing coming from our country, and the rise and fall of emerging market economies. i just had this conversation earlier on how much they've understood perform performed the stock market -- underperformed the stock market because these economies don't have anything

going for them, per se. what do we need, like, just one sort of mistake, like, to be the pin that potentially blows all of that up? >> well, no, it's not, it's not one of these gloom and doom can books. what we're really saying is that there's about in, say, 2011 the nasdaq 100 and the energy sector were about the same size in value. charles: right. >> 2011, in that -- 2011, '12. now the nasdaq 100 is almost 16 trillion larger than the energy space. and take nvidia, for example. invid yes, sir ooh $2.3 trillioo 2.3 trillion. if you look at the terrabonn watt hours -- terra watt hours, charles, that are going to come out of this growth cycle for artificial intelligence, they're just the size of germany. i mean, you're talking about an incredible amount of energy demand. charles: right. >> in other words, if you believe the analysts and say,

okay, nvidia and these a.i. companies are on this growth track, what the analysts aren't doing is they're not looking at the energy cop assumption. charles: right. >> and so a lot of times with secular changes and big technology booms, a lot of times the best trades are kind of behind the surface. charles: right. >> and we saw that with dot.com. you were a youngster back then, but i lived through it. in the dot.com bust, everybody thought global crossing and lucent would have been the big winners. at the end of the day, it was company ifs like match.com and google. charles: all right. >> so there's tremendous opportunities ahead. charles: all right. hey, larry, congratulations. i can't wait to read the book myself, and hopefully you can talk about it a little bit more. thank you very much. >> thank you, charles. charles: all right, folks. now, there is wide spread worries particularly for our economy. take it might help expand the spike with it flow into crypto funds. joining me is natalie brunel.

feels like the tipping point in the sense this is not a one off. there's been a seachange on main street towards acceptance and a piece of the action. is this that moment? >> great to see you. i'm not getting barakat $67,000, up 180% the last 12 months of bitcoin, 50% year to date. a lot of people are realizing the value of a scarce decentralized asset like this. the heart monitor is alive and young and healthy and it is pretty much up only. i learned today that google searches for bitcoin have surpassed taylor swift so -- charles: that tells you what you need to know. i want to talk about something you like. the american dream cost $3.4 million. what does that have to do with bitcoin?

>> people are talking about the having. the most important thing people need to realize is it marks another milestone in bitcoin's programmatic monetary policy set in stone and completely transparent. our money supply increases at 7% annualized since the 1960s diluting everyone's savings, everyone is chasing you and no one knows what the monetary policy is in four years versus 10 or 20. with bitcoin we know what the supply will be. everyone can verify it and it is disinflationary. it will be harder than gold and with every having, the american dream is getting cheaper in terms of bitcoin. my dream home was 100 and then 50 and now it is approaching single digits. bitcoin will reprice everything in the existing system and having pig young people hope.

and future descendents with fiat they can't do that anymore. charles: 20 seconds to go. some critics won't go away. they are talking the energy, and for folks on defense. i won't put you on the spot, how do they ignore the noise? >> don't know anyone who has studied bitcoin for a thousand hours who is against it. the more you learn about it the more you understand money in general, the more you appreciate this is the best engineered money and you want a piece of it. you want bitcoin when you want it, not when you need it. charles: you have been fantastic on this. you never wavered. people who listen to you were worried big time. have a great weekend. >> you too. charles: over to ashley webster. ashley: thank you, appreciate it. good afternoon. we begin with fox market alert