acknowledged this is a free-for-all that needs to change. brian: alan, thanks for being on set. we appreciate it. taylor: meanwhile let's get back to these markets. stocks are climbing boosted by chip stocks. the nag dak again trying for a record. quickly guys, we'll get earnings after the bell. gamestop is one that i'm following. the bottom line should benefit here from some cost controls, some store closures, but what is the long-term growth for the top line for recurring good revenue? that is the big question of this stock. jackie: speaking of meme stocks. taylor: original one. brian: are we back in that moment again? is this that moment? >> taylor: talk to me about the fundamentals. brian: she is talking about fundamentals. charles payne is up next. charles: taylor, that is a whole different market. that is yesterday. this is today, all right. good afternoon, everyone, i'm charles payne, this is

"making money." breaking today, right now stocks more or less this week in old whoing pattern. we got the big news on friday. this gives investors time to think. i have to be honest, i'm not sure that is a great thing. shah ghailani is give us his read on all that. the housing crisis is a political hot potato, but what are solutions? we have some for you on this show. larry fink is raising the flag on america's retirement crisis in a very personal way. nancy tengler, we're lucky to have her on our show. she is many coulding with answers as well. president biden says the economy is improving, pawn shops are telling us an entirely different story. we're talking about what the economy means on the ground because i got to tell you things do not look great. i will tell you that and so much more in "my take"away." that and much more on "making money." ♪ charles: kind of new coming into today, yesterday, listen the

market, the bias is to the upside but we're kind of moseying along because of the pce number on friday this is when you start to think, the market opens, it is relatively flat, maybe a stock is down or up, and it could be a good thing for bad thing, right? the dilemma for stock investors the reluctance not in the stock market but the bond market. this is what we need to be looking at. what is going on in the bond market since the powell pivot? here is what the market typically looks like, at the end when the fed stops hiking rates. this is here when they stop hiking rates. you see what typically hams. bonds normally rally. everyone of our guests all these brilliant guests have come on say own bonds, this is one of the reasons. look where we are right now though? there is really, really worrisome. let's call it a yellow flag but it could be a red flag. here is the the question, what is the bond market waiting for? the bond market is still data

dependent when it comes to jobs. this is a great set of charts here. it lays out what the scenarios look like. everyone has been talking about a soft landing. what do we notice in the two soft landings? where unemployment began and where it is later. it sort of drifts a little bit lower. it doesn't crash, it doesn't go down but drift as little bit lower. what do we know in all of the hard lands? exact opposite. the unemployment rate zooms higher, much higher. where are we right now? a sort of combination of both. we've come down but this is where unemployment was. will we drift to this level? if we do how long will it take? this is what's happening right now. this is why the bond market is not moving the way it normally moves. this one has a whole lot of folks very, very worried. you should be worried about it as well. traditionalists they're having a hard time with this market because they use all kind of metrics that do work long term but short term is really tough. for instance, the s&p 500, you take the earnings, minus the

10-year yield, treasury yield, you get that, what they call equity risk premium. not a lot, not a lot of reasons for folks with big money to be in this market. another issue that's got a lot of people worried, again mostly traditional its, let's call it a yellow flag. that is the mounting insider sales. across the board but especially in technology. look at this, this is huge. so as nasdaq goes up so has the selling. let's bring in man ward press chief strategist, shah gilani. i wanted to start here. you've give enus some great tech ideas in the last few months. how worried are you when you see a big spike in selling amongst the insiders what does it tell you? >> it tells me they're smart. they're taking advantage of great stock prices. a lot of them, these are scheduled sales. they have so much stock, most of these executives have scheduled sales but there are spikes and going to continue to be spikes as long as prices keep going up especially on the big tech

names. i think it's smart on their part. they're diversifying probably. probably going into other stocks more value-oriented these days, i think it is smart. to me it doesn't prove anything as far as a top or give me pause or a reason to worry. charles: in other words i'm a an investor. i bought. mid yaw this year. i bought amd i have names that are maersking a big move. i ride the wave until the wheels come off? >> you dance until the music stops as they say, charles. we use trailing stops on our positions that are working like all the big tech positions we just raise our stops. if the market has a hiccup, if we get some kind of a black swan event or something happens out of left field the market comes down, five, 10, 15, 20% in no time which is always a possibility we want to get out. we'll get back in on the great names. you just ride this market rally because this is a little bit reminiscent, more than a little

bit reminiscent of 2009 in my opinion where things can keep going higher and everybody hate this is bull market just like they started hating the bull market that began in march of 2009. charles: i have to be honest with you, i feel in last 10, 20 years, they hated all the bull markets particularly at the beginning. >> yes. charles: the notion i want you to address, the notion this is greater fool theory. what is the greater fool theory. i'm going to do something dumb. why will i do something dumb, balks i know somebody will do something dumber. do you buy the greater fool theory, people chase the stocks under the assumption there will be a greater fool out there? no, i don't think they're foolish. i think they're almost forced into doing it. institutional investors, i use that broad category, whether mute fall funds, hedge funds. jackie: institutional fund managers, they are chasing the performance. they missed the nerve start of this rally. they probably missed the beginning of this first leg

there have bull market in july. they're constantly chasing. we have a bit of fomo coming into this as the market seems to be broadening out. it is not just the big names, not just tech. we're starting to see a bit of broadening out. i think that will create more anxiety for performance chasing. it is not greater fool until we're all fooled. charles: i'm with you, being devil's advocate. these are issues that we need to put out there for the audience. before we go, i know you like apple. it is something of a value play. it hasn't participated recently. talk to us about erj. we have 30 seconds. this is a name i hadn't heard anyone mention in a while. >> embraer airplane, out of sao paulo, brazil. third best airline manufacturer. plane manufacturer. people talk about the problems with boeing. embraer are picking up contracts as well. they picked up 90 jet deal with american airlines, with perhaps

another 43 jets on order. they're picking up orders where boeing is losing them. i think they will do well. this is less than five billion dollar market cap stock, with 40% of the revenues of boeing. i really like this company. i think it is positioned well. i think the stock has done well t has a lot to go higher. charles: i have to be honest, i love that story. you took a way for boeing's issues and found a way to capitalize on it for our audience. thank you, shah. >> thank you, charles. charles: our next guest says armchair technical analysts are doing it all wrong. let's bring in the man, ned davis research management. ed. i know one of the things you talked about is the fixation, we do a lot on this show, a small number of stocks doing all the heavy lifting in this case "the magnificent seven." something has to be wrong. it is a mirage. it is just seven names. it is 30%. that you argue as high as it

ever has been going back to the great depression. we should not worry about this? this should not be a redd red flag for us? >> i think you need to take a bigger picture look. what you don't want to see those are the only stocks going up. that's what happened in early 2000. the s&p was making a new high because some internet stocks were rallying but only 30% stocks were above their 200-day moving average which is what technicians use as a gauge in the long-term trend of a stock. right now we have over 70% of stocks above their 200-day moving averages. so what's going on those stocks most of them are leading because they have big market caps, they're going to account for a lot of the gains because the s&p 500 is a cap weighted index. charles: right. >> they're just leading the market and other stocks are participating. so it would be a different story, charles, if they were the only ones doing the lifting. >> right. it wasn't, you know, the

broadening of the rally really has been, first it was stealthy to your point. we're close to almost 80% now which makes you feel a lot better about everything. you also point out the number of stocks hitting 52-week highs. normally, i'm showing a chart here, of some of these number of stocks. 19%, 19 1/2%. is there sometimes, can this be contrarian or is this sort of a buy signal? >> if you're a little bit longer term looking out a few months or longer it's a bullish signal. on average, percentage of stocks making new 52-week highs, peaks about nine months before the bull market peaks. now short term does that mean the market can be overbought? yeah you get that occasionally. if the market take as breather here, it would actually be a good thing for the longevity of the bulls, we don't have a runaway blow-off top situation but no, generally the phrase, momentum leads price applies. so if you lots of stocks making

new highs that tends to mean the averages can keep going or a while longer. >> ed, i'm glad you're talking about this we have this natural built-in skepticism. i don't think it is just for the stock market, right? when things are we're told seems to good to be true then its not true, but follow the market, right? i love it. follow the tape. i do want to point something out. i think you mentioned last time on this show, when wall street was rooting for seven rate cuts, maybe that wasn't the smart thing. maybe weapon should want slower rate cuts. this is one of your charts. fantastic chart. it is pretty clear, chart. you see the slower cycles, what happens with the market. we're down to bostick saying one rate cut. would it still applay there? >> yeah. so what the chart is showing is how the s&p 500 has done when the fed starts to cut-rates. >> right. >> so there is a fast cycle. the fed is cutting five or more times in a year that tends to be pad because they're panicking. they're probably fighting off a

recession and usually doing a pretty poor job of it versus a slow cycle where they're cutting a few times because they can, because the economy is doing okay and they have the ability to move slow. so moving from seven rate cuts to three is actually a positive change for stocks. now if we only have one, which happened a few times in the '60s, that's when the fed makes a mistake and have to flip-flop, that is actually a worse scenario for stocks. the biggest risk is here not necessarily we'll get a recession over the short term but if the fed moves too soon to cut and they have to reverse course. now, our base case they will do a couple rates cuts and it will be okay. you ask me where the bigger risk is, if inflation stays sticky, the fed has to eat crow and go back to tightening again. charles: wow, that would be something. i know when this whole thing began, they wouldn't be arthur burns, they wouldn't be arthur burns. they wouldn't be arthur burns.

let's hope they don't have to be arthur burns. ed, we learn a lot every time you're on the show. >> thanks for having me. charles: my next guest says the some areas of the market are overstretched but if you know where to look there are chances to make big money. what i love about thomas hayes. he is not looking to flip a stock. he is finding undervalued names that have long-term potential to be grand slams. he will give you a couple after this. ♪. (grandpa vo) i'm the richest guy in the world. hi baby! (woman 1 vo) i have inherited the best traditions. (woman 2 vo) i have a great boss... it's me. (man 1 vo) i have people, people i can count on. (man 2 vo) i have time to give (grandma vo) and a million stories to share. (grandpa vo) if that's not rich, i don't know what is.

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♪. charles: all right, so my next guest really his forte is finding these dime mondays in the rough but he also watches the market minute to minute as well. i want to bring in great hill capital chairman thomas hayes. you have also on twitter the hedge fund website, a twitter site i love to go to one of the things i saw in there, one of your indicators of the day is the nasdaq advance-decline which ironically, gary k., gary kaltbaum, on the show yesterday, that is one of the indicators he mentioned as well. what is so important about this? why does that resonate so much?

>> we look at dozen indicators. charles: sure. >> we use this more than other people on day-to-day basis we see it extreme, plus 500, plus 1000, we say okay we'll take a hilboldter here in the short term. we want to put money here when it is extremely stressed like diamonds the rough. charles: entry points, fifth highs, you are looking for that as well. is that momentum gauge? >> what we're trying to find is a broadening of the market to understand the health of the markets okay? when we see more companies making new highs, we see more participation across many different sectors, that gives us confidence to generally allocate money. we take the other side we look for what hasn't moved. charles: that's what i'm saying. it is interesting, so you like the idea that more names are moving, greater confidence, rotation, broadening of the rally but you're also looking at these names that are not necessarily participating in that yet?

>> yes. what is next. where is the puck going? where is it going next? we don't like chasing shiny objects as you know. we go into the places where no one is looking. we get involved. when everyone gets excited we -- charles: talk about a couple of them. you like boeing. you started buying around 80 buck. >> this is the least amount of analysis we've done in a long time. this wasn't a hard one. this thing sold off pretty hard the last two weeks. we bought a little bit in high 179s, a little bit, 180s. our basis is 183. got up to 190. downgraded credit, murphy's law. at the end of the day they delivered 528 planes last year. they have a 560000 backlog f you're southwest, we're going to airbus but you will wait 20 years for your next new plane. charles: i had this as never sell stock for 10 years, then those back-to-back disasters. the first red flag the way management handled it. almost indifference, it was

really cold-blooded. this was a 383-dollar stock. so it's, you say, you know, if boeing themselves they put on their website, what i love over next 20 years x-amount of planes, 50 cities we never heard of. most of them in china. the demand is there. it is just the execution. >> yeah. charles: disney also. disney is another one. >> disney is not hard. disney fell down to 90, even in the 80s we pick it up. we own low 90s basis. we have activists involved. that accelerates the turn-around story. this happened in the mid 80s. the bass family came in when the parks were tired. the content, they had to find a new way to sell it. in the 80s, 90s, used vh tapes. now they're using bundles. nelson peltz, it helped spotify turn around their subscription package. i think they will be helpful. charles: whether peltz wins or not, management knows they're on notice. they should turn it around.

they should, they have all the pieces, this was a stock, 1978, a lot of -- 197, not long, it was nine year long. less than a minute to go. stanley works,. >> stanley black & decker. you've got tools, turn around in the inflation reduction act, construction coming back, new homes. charles: you have the construction issue. >> why is thing down 55%? they over inventoried during covid. they worked down the inventories. they have management in place to take two billion dollars of cost out of the business. charles: same management team? >> they are ahead of schedule. they taken one billion out. they have two billion by 2025. that is 13 bucks a share. that put as 200 handle on it. it is like a 90-dollar stock. it will take, 24, 36, 48 months, but 50, 100%, returns over two, three years is a good thing. charles: all right. a breath of fresh air to talk about owning a stock for more than two days. >> thanks so much. >> thanks, man.

folks, don't forget, i will be hosting "unbreakable investor." this will be a huge town hall, folks. it is wednesday april 24th at 2:00 p.m. eastern. join me here in studio live. remember the last couple were standing room only. they were an absolute blast. we will have a lot of questions and you learn stuff and this will be the best business special of an been too. eventbrite.com, search for charles payne. i will get you a free ticket. see you in a few weeks. we'll dive into the challenging housing market which now has become a political hot potato. housing expert jim lambert joins us next. ♪. at ameriprise financial our advice is personalized based on your goals, whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work.

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♪. charles: all right, folks, let's face it from coast to coast more and more americans are being priced out of the american dream of owning their own home. will it get better? gerri willis has got some interesting insights for us. gerri. >> reporter: hey there, charles. i hope it get's better, let's put it that way. yesterday new home sales came in below wall street consensus and median prices have lurched into freefall. take a look at this, yet this continues to be a serious affordability crisis. there is a minor bounce happening, so with news out of redfin this morning, take a look

at this, the typical buyer after u.s. home needs to earn $114,000 to afford it but that is 35% more than what the typical american earnings. there are 30,000 in the hole to buy that house. meanwhile, the median monthly payment is $2800, a little more than that, down from 3,000. still 74% you higher than 2021. we're still in that hole. many are griping that is more than mortgage rates. the wealthy control a large chunk of real estate, the bottom 50%, take a look at that, the bottom 50% have little more than this amount here. in addition to the wealthy, hedge funds and foreign buyers, companies are globalling up homes to lease them out, including invitation homes. you may have seen this chart, right? that stock peaked in early 2022. now with existing homeowners locked into low mortgages the big winner has been homebuilders but they are being forced to

offer more goodies these days. bottom line? this crisis continues to linger and more people, especially young adult resistive abouting up on the american dream. i hope it turns around soon. charles, back to you. charles: absolutely. thank you very much, gerri. my next guest was fed up with the affordability crisis as well. he quit his fortune 500 company and launched rezi club. co-founder and editor-in-chief lance lambert. lance, start about the first about the mission. what is the mission of rezi club? >> my mission is to track the u.s. housing sector and folks gateway to the u.s. housing market. we're in such a critical period with the u.s. housing market with affordability getting so strained i want to really shed a light what is going on. charles: to that point, not only it is getting strained but i think fast becoming a political hot potato. i heard president biden wagging his finger at greedy agents the other day. obviously other kinds of moves

are happening nationally. i heard a note, you said these things are mostly scapegoating? >> taking into out mortgage rates, incomes, house prices affordability is strained at the worst levels in about four decades and so when you have that, a lot of homebuyers can't get in, and a lot of homeowners can't sell and buy something else because they can't afford the monthly payments, you're seeing a lot of scapegoating. in some municipalities, short-term rentals, airbnbs, talking about the institutional side of the market. scapegoating real estate agents. nar, or doj is going after nar and you know, they act like lowering commissions would improve housing affordability. going after soccer moms making 60,000 a year because that is the only job that works around their kids schedule, going after them, but at the end of the day, if you look out at a lot of countries that have lower commissions they don't have

better housing affordability. these european countries have actually worse housing affordability. it is a lot of scapegoating. really the only thing that will improve housing affordability is more supply. it is things that are boring. more adus, up zoning, tax policies that work for new construction, not against new construction. lower fees on home building, all the boring stuff that would long term increase supply, that would increase housing affordability. charles: i'm looking at the new home sales yesterday up to 100,000, zero or less than a thousand, to 199,000, there were zero. you know, even up to 300,000 there weren't that many. almost all of the new homes are being built north of that. how, you know, you talked about zoning and other things. who actually gets the ball moving on these boring things that you've described could actually start to make it or is it even worth it for a homebuilder to be in that part of the market?

>> yeah, so right now, resale supply is fairly tight. builders also have elevated margins. yeah they were really high and at record levels during the pandemic. they have come off of those though. they are still in a good place to build single-family homes with their affordability adjustments they have done. a little bit is outright price cuts. a lot of that smaller homes and you mortgage rate buy-downs this macro environment is set up well for single-family home builders. we're seeing above average levels of home building, still above pre-pandemic levels, although we have rolled off a bit off the pandemic highs. charles: before i let you go, lance, the american dream, is it still available this homeownership for everybody? >> you know, residential real estate, it's the largest asset class in the country. it is bigger than bonds, bigger than stocks and long term, prices tend to drift up although you can see some of the short-term corrections. i think homeowners with those fixed step mortgages if they can

get it and afford it long term it pays off. charles: all right. great stuff, great work. appreciate you coming on. thanks, lance. my next guest's themes of the week include the fed and 2% overtime, u.s. housing data, we'll talk about that and these global pmis. joining me co-chief chief investment officer for john hancock investment management, emily roland. thanks for coming back on the show. can we pick up on this conversation because i do believe it will be a political hot potato but i worry about the knee-jerk, browbeat the buying agent who does not make 6%, right? that 70% of them are women and soccer moms. is there in your mind, is there elegant solution in your mind to this where there could be broader participation? >> by the way i found out i could make $60,000 a year being a soccer mom. i might switch over to that. that was really good information. charles: depends on the position

you play. >> right, right. it is really remarkable to see the u.s. housing market is now the least affordable in american history. the fact we haven't seen housing prices really even budge in the face of the fed just going from the easiest to the tightest monetary policy in four decades, 1months in the housing market hasn't even flinched. supply remains an issue. we have very limited inventory. charles: right. >> i don't know any better cocktail part conversation about below 4% mortgage rate. charles: humblebrag. >> humblebrag. having a mortgage rate below 4%. supply is very limited. we still have demand. one key reason is labor market dynamics. as long as you have a job, you feel confident you will have a job in the future, you will feel confident buying a home. charles: what about the federal reserve? so interesting the housing market would be the first thing shattered. only recently have the prices started coming down, median

prices. the big debate is, this 2%. some are saying listen, they're just going to ignore it. they won't admit it but the defacto real level will be 2 1/2, three, because they can't get to 2% anytime soon because of sticky inflation, the last mile, all those things? >> i think the key read on the latest fed meeting they sort of said they were comfortable with two or 3% and they were still going to go ahead and cut rates. charles: right. >> the core pce the fed's preferred measure of inflation revised up. gdp revised a bit. nobody budged on fomc, three rate cuts starting in june being priced into the market. the fed is saying hey look, we still think policy is too tight given where inflation is. they are going to cut. this is a dream scenario by the way, charles for the market. charles: it is a dream scenario for the market. everyone is rooting for it. everyone is rooting for it. this is interesting when the whole rate hiking cycle began

the better part of valor was to break a few things to quell inflation. we had a headline yesterday, powell will come to the rescue of labor market. the labor market doesn't need to be rescued. they're looking for an excuse. we'll take it. if fed wants to give wall street free money, be more accommodative that is fantastic but you worry about the implications for the overall economy? >> typically the way these things end, something breaks. there is some liquidity event. we're now sitting in never ending late cycle environment where the leading economic indicators have been negative for 20 months that never happened without having a recession. charles: inverted yield curve at records. >> at the same time what you're seeing are some things that are kind of pandemic era distortions to the data. the fact that higher interest rates haven't impacted us because of mortgage rates. companies are hoarding labor. they are lucky to let people go.

they know how hard toe was to hire people last couple years. more importantly we're still spending, right or wrong. we're employing potentially two trillion dollars in fiscal stimulus with the unemployment rate less than 4%. charles: right. >> that is extremely unusual. we can talk about whether that's right or wrong but it's happening. charles: it is a wartime budget, right? >> yes. charles: like we're at war, we always know there is a reason the stock market goes up during presidential election years, no matter what party is in office. this is a new level. before i let you go you like value but you say mid-cap, you prefer mid-cap over small caps? >> yeah. so some of the places we're looking now are areas that can benefit from where that fiscal spending is going. it is being funneled into this almost industrial revolution that is happening in the united states. we mentioned real estate before. the midwest is booming right now. that is where we're seeing an increase in prices. so the mid-cap sector, part of the market is a great way to play that industrials theme. it is also on sale, trading at cheapest valuations to large cap

since the late '90s. charles: wow. great stuff, emily. go home practice the kick. the goalie i think makes a lot of money. whatever position messi plays, see you soon. our next guest says gold and bonds are being punished here. am dam kobiessi you asked us to bring him back. he has some other tidbits for you. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ you were always so dedicated... ♪ we worked hard to build up the shop, save for college and our retirement. but we got there, thanks to our advisor and vanguard. now i see who all that hard work was for... it was always for you. seeing you carry on our legacy— i'm so proud. at vanguard, you're more than just an investor,

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the weight just fell off. i have people come up to me all the time and ask me, "does it really work?" and all i have to say is, "here i am. it works." my advice for everyone is to go with golo. it will release your fat and it will release you. ♪. charles: so everyone's kind of talking about this article in "the ft" where you have phillip swaggle, head of congressional budget office, suggesting that the united states is on a cusp of a liz trust moment. you remember liz trust, right? he says her u.s. fiscal burden is quote, unprecedented trajectory. we kind of knew this, right? the same sort of crisis that sparked a run on the pound, in liz truss's government in 2022. it was so bad, the media, the media in london, in england. they had a contest. which would last longer, truss,

a head of lettuce? guess who won? the head of lettuce. let's bring in the head of the kobeissi letter, adam kobeissi. i was really rooting for her. they were a bit ham-fisted. look at london, england, uk, we're worse. look at percentage of gdp where we are right now. this is the a projection. it can't about on forever. you talk a lot about this stuff in your letter. >> we've been talking about this for years and this is a very long-term trend. a lot of people expect, spending is out of control. well we said that last year nothing happened. this year we're good. it is not really like that. right now we put out a note this morning to our subs, as a percentage of gdp right now is around 124%. charles: right. >> even at the peak of world war ii it was 119. charles: right here. >> it wasn't where we are now. there is a very interesting statistic i read there morning.

since 1800, there have been 52 countries had debt-to-gdp cross above 130%. 51 of those companies defaulted when that happened. we're 5% of reaching that 130 mark. according to the cbo itself, we're expecting to see gdp 130, to 15 by 2050. charles: 2050. they're talking 160. this is nuts. this is crazy. economic suicide. >> deficits are growing especially as a percentage of gdp. spending is out of control. charles: spending is out of control. this is what they have done in the biden administration. they got a little slick. they're not issuing 10 years, 30 years, because it makes the yield go up. this auction was absolutely rape mag. a five-year note, they wanted to raise 67 billion. 131 billion was tendered. they're finding buyers. 4.2% is a pretty good yield this coasts the american taxpayer. this is sort of a, it's a scam in a way because we don't need

to be raising this kind of money. we should stop spending the way we're spending right? >> we're seeing debt issuance is about to cross above the pandemic level we saw when we were doing four plus trillion in stimulus. i think what is happening right now. the government needs money. everyone else doesn't know what to do with their money. we're at all-time highs. everything is looking overbought. why not take 5% risk-free, 4% risk-free. there is pretty strong demand as we expect markets are expecting rate cuts to start. it is kind of an interesting situation. the question how long can the demand last. especially rates start coming down, how long can that last, especially if rates stay higher for loungers can the u.s. government even afford that. 354 billion in interest expense in 2024 already. charles: we're crossing a trillion dollars. what can we do in this couldn'ttry with a trillion dollars? talk about the some of the things you like and don't like here. you're bullish on equities and crude oil. i knew you were bullish on crude

oil. it had the kobeissi breakout. >> i like that the kobeissi breakout at 80. charles: you riding this wave now? >> we've been bullish. we've been bullish since october really when it started to run. right now, even as rate cuts are removed from forecasts we're at all-time highs, a.i. hype, general risk on market appetite is boeing to prevail and it doesn't make any sense from a trader perspective to fight that. you're better off may having the trend. once the trend has reversal you play it short. calling the top is very difficult. charles: i tell people all the time these windows of opportunity, as crazy as it feels and seems, you want to take advantage. >> 100%. charles: they're giving me a wrap. stalked about bonds, gold, you were the youngest gold bull in my life. now you're bearish own gold? i thought it broke out. >>wer are at all-time highs. we think higher rates will be higher for longer.

we think three less rate cuts this year. which is obviously bearish for gold, bullish for the dollar. hough can equities go up with less rate cuts? exactly what i said, bond market, gold will feel pain from more hawkish fed. they will stay with the party, who knows when it is going to end. charles: i can tell you, thanks a lot, adam. by the way, should you be rethinking retirement? larry fink out with this letter, it is absolute anaysing. tweet me if you're prepared for retirement. tweet me @cvpayne. what can be done about it. nancy tengler always has some great suggestions. great suggestions. we'll be right back. ♪ ing you back? ♪ the only limit is the sky ♪ ♪ it's our time ♪ ♪ you don't want to miss it (just a little bit louder) ♪ ♪ it's our time ♪ ♪ you don't want to miss it ♪

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charles: blackrock ceo larry fink out this morning making bigaways with his annual -- big wave waves with his annual letter to nester. it begins with a deeply personal note about his participants.

it says my parents lived their final years with dignity and financial freedom. most people don't have that chance, but they can. the same kind of markets that helped my parents in their time can help other in our time. indeed, i think that growth and prosperity-generating power of capital markets will main main an economic dominant trend through the rest of the 21st century. and he goes on to explain why. larry is focusing on investing and the miracle of capital markets. interestingly enough though, even with the market at all-time highs right now, retirement assets, take a look at 2021. they were higher then than they are right now. he also mentions that net equity demand in u.s. households, this was actually a different chart but i want to include it here. last year is incredible, down a -57 billion. we sold 57 be in stocks. foreigners or bought $179 billion. seems like they got it more than we do. let's bring in laffer-tengler

cio nancy tengler. your thoughts on the funk letter. >> yeah. well -- fink letter. >> i think some of these letters are more marketing strategies. so we had the esg era and then we had the double up on china era from larry fink. and while this is noble, i think there are things that blackrock could do that would encourage investors to really be focused on saving for retirement and staving to invest -- staving to invest for retirement. -- saving for retirement. there are a number of things investors can do for themselves x one is to realize it's never too late to invest for your with retirement. i used to write with a column for "usa today," and i wrote ability a woman named stephanie who didn't start saving or investing until she was on a fixed income and retired, and by the time she died, she had given away $5 million. so it is important for become people to understand that they can do this, they can do it on their own. of they don't need a target date fund. which blackrock would be happy to sell you with, because those the make decisions for you, and

they take the risk profile out of your hands. but then secondarily, they can take more risk. charles: right. >> we tell our clients that retirement is 20 years of unemployment, 30 if you're lucky, so you need to be taking risks throughout your retirement years because with you're not going to need all the money at once, and that will also really dramatically help retirement prospects. charles: i love that answer because the first tweet i got from the tease was someone saying they're behind, they feel like maybe they started too late, so you went with right up there and answered their question. you know, as i read through the letter, no doubt some of it was marketing, for sure. what -- and, you know, without causing too much -- [laughter] you sort of took a shot here at blackrock and, i would suspect, these others. what are they doing that that's not maximizing the retirement potential for individuals. >> for one thing, they're selling products and they're not educating or providing financial well-being like you do in your books. that's really what people need.

they need the confidence to know that they really are can do this, that, you know, investing is accessible to everyone. as the great peter lynch said, all wow need is a fifth grade education in math to be a great investor. i think that's one thing that all asset management firms could do much better. and secondarily are, i mean, blackrock kicks off $6 billion in free cash flow this year. they could lower fees some, and that would also incentivize, line up the incentives with investors. but i think most importantly we just need to educate. i wrote about in my book a study that was done by tiaa prep, and they had three asset managers, jack vogel and jane bryant quinn. she took the most aggressive retirement stance, 40 years all the way down to 10 years. she was at 100% and then the 80% inning equities, and her portfolio -- in equityings, and her prafl came in about $1.5 million at the end of the 40-year period against the first

man who was very conservative, more like a target date, and he generated returns of about $800,000. so i think when people see the numbers, they begin to understand, wait, i need to be doing this, and i need to be -- have confidence in my own abilities as well. charles: and it's more than just a random walk, right in great stuff, nancy. really appreciate it. i knew you were the right person to talk to about this. talk to you again soon. >> thank you, charles. charles: today axios with acknowledged lower income kerr -- consumers. believe it or not, they know you're out there. while they're starting to feel the pain, today said, they had to start the article off, well, the overall consumer spend hack remarkably -- spend spending has been remarkably robust. today the ceo of mccormack joined a chorus of chief executives in the last week warning things are going to get ugly for the american consumer. and and then there's this, the spike in pawnshop business. give me a break. of course, wall street doesn't have a metic for that, but this

is -- metric for that, but this is real,ing live stuff. auto repossessions are through the roof. they would be higher if they could the find somebody to take the gig. let's face it, i it ain't for the faint of heart. behind me, a spike in retailer bond defaults. that will get wall street's attention. i suspect it's going to get a whole lot worse, and it's going to catch a lot of people off guard. that's why this rate cut talk, i think it's kind of weird, you know? if maybe they should, maybe they shouldn't, but i think the fed may actually be caught so far off a guard that by the time they do cut, if they wait, maybe it'll be 50 basis points. wall street loves when the fed is accommodative. it's free money. it's great for everyone out there, but the repo man will still be on the prowl. liz claman, over to you. liz: no such thing as free, we all know that. there's always a response. we're going to begin with breaking news, the national transportation safety board news conferen