i'm going into trucking and have they seen the light? >> oh, they just questioned me because i have a family of just office jobs. we do not do blue-collar work at all. but they, you know, they were, they questioned a lot but then eventually they caught on. i just always wanted to do it. i've always been a risk-taker. >> it is working for you. they can't deny that. congratulations on that. alex thank you so much. taylor: meanwhile, let's get another quick check on your money. stocks are lower here to kick off the month and the quarter. as saying january goes so the rest of the year. it was a great first quarter. it was a great january. i feel like the street continued, everything rallied, bitcoin, copper, you name it. jackie: let's hope today doesn't set the tone for the rest of the quarter. let's send it over to charles payne. he can turn this around. charles: they call it "the cp effect."

i'm charles payne this is "making money." you just heard we had a monster first quarter. stumbling a little bit. nobody panicking maybe that's a problem. could there be too much swagger, overconfidence? here is the thing i have the best in the business. we'll hash it all out on the show. what has spooked the bond market and is it a mistake to ignore what is happening there? kelsey berro, joe lavorgna on that. more companies are offering special dividends. sounds too good to be true. we have dividend guru david bahnsen. is biden out of touch with america. we have evidence to show he is. why we need a baby boom. we need it right now. you don't want to miss "my takeaway," under educating americans, paying them not to work, fueled the immigration problem and adds to the inflation crisis. all that and so much more on "making money." ♪.

charles: let's set the stage here. despite being down today, the market came into this week like caesar returning to rome. crossing the rubicon back in 49 bc the swagger of confidence is unmiss tablable. here is one of the reasons, the rally broadened out. last week the s&p 500 was able to finish higher even though you have three growth sectors, communications, discretionary, and technology, all of them were flat or in the red last week, rather and yet the overall market was up because everything else picked up and this is what you want to see in a market. in fact we want to see that rally broaden out. believe me we have. as of coming into today, as of friday, 82, almost 83% of the s&p 500 names, they're changing hands above their respective 200-day moving average. so this is absolutely huge. now there is a major dilemma, sort of, i don't think it is a major dilemma, but one problem has been for the smart money, is

that retail investors have been so optimistic about this market, that wall street said, you know what? we don't want to be a part of it. now the smart money it is getting smart. they have anthropogenic in the towel. this is the asset allocation survey. 225 managers around the world, they manage $8 trillion intriguing. chances of a recession, for two years they saw a chance of recession. now they say no, no chance of a recession. the first time it has been under 50% in over two years. so if you don't see recession what does that mean? that means you really like stocks. check this out. they thought bonds would outperform the stock market all this time. now overwhelmingly, they say stocks are going to outperform bonds. that is fine. we jumped on the band wag gone. we got $8 trillion. here is the problem, right? traditional lifts will point out this market is very, very expensive on a number of metrics, right? i pulled out some of it, forward

p-e ratio. 33% above your historic average. price to book value, 79% above historic average. enterprise value to cash flow, ebidta, 40% above average. forward peg ratio, 28%. price to free cash flow and that is even 8% above. so traditionalists will look at this, maybe, just maybe not. almost everybody else jumping on the bandwagon. joining me lance roberts. let's begin with the stock arc market rally. it is hard to say the beingstocks are not overvalued. but what would cause them to go lower at this point? >> it is interesting. you and i have this conversation twice a year. last july we were talking about the very same thing. markets were going up. the a.i. chase. confidence was extremely bullish. woe said be careful, if

everybody is on the same side, everybody is optimistic all it takes a little bit of selling to start the reversal. then we had a 10% correction. then in october, everybody was negative. you and i were talking about potential for a rally. we're five straight months in a row. that only happened 22 times going back to 1871. historically after those type of rallies you're going to get a correct. we're not talking about a crash. five to 10% correction, norm formal for any given year. we'll get rotation into other areas of the market. charles: which we're starting to see. you wrote in your note the millenial earnings season. i call it the fix, the fix is always in. three months before earnings season you have consensus, usually here. by the time earnings come around the earnings consensus is down there. of course what happens with the yellow line is how often they beat on earnings and the blue

line often they beat on revenue. 80% beat rate, high as 90%. we know the fix is in. the bar is set. everyone want as trophy. it seems to work. it is a gimmick but it works. >> everybody gets excited. the company lowers estimates, yea the company beat earnings. they start projecting this out they will continue to do this forever. that is just normal. this is the way it works. the big thing we're missing, charles, the bye bark window for corporate bye barks is closed for the month. it won't begin begin until may. we're losing a buyer for the rest of this month. that may be enough of a draw back for the markets to have a bit of a correction or at least not rally that much from here. the price gains for this year may mostly be in. we'll find out. burr you're losing an important buyer over the next month. >> i love the educational aspect of your work.

you recently wrote about the reversion to the mean. several things, we won't be able to go through all of them but slower growth environment, inflation starting to ease, fade, no artificial stimulus. we pulled forward consumption. i want to talk about this because it feels like the same story when we had the covid-19 pop and a lot of things, like we were pulling forward, you know, technology, like, peloton bikes we pulled forward 10 years worth of peloton bikes and we paid a price for it at the end. >> that's going to be the same thing here. the big difference is, it's interesting because there is so much money coming into the markets and it feels like this is 2021 where you had all the stimulus, you had zero interest rates, the fed doing qe and this market is rallying like we have the stimulus all on the hopes that the fed is going to cut-rates as soon as june but you know inflation is being a little bit sticky here. employment is not nearly as strong as we thought. we saw the philly fed come out, look, we had 800,000 less jobs

than what has been reported so that may keep the fed from cutting rates here for a little bit until they get more evidence that we see a real sign the economy is slowing down. that may be an issue next month or sew,. charles: lance, we got 30 seconds. sounds like you're saying wait a little bit on stocks. last november you were bullish. coming into this year you were very bullish on bonds versus stokes. right now stocks are crushing it. this is like the best performance vis-a-vis the stock market versus the agg. does this start to change anytime soon because these bond yields don't budge? >> no. look, i'm still very bullish on bonds but i think later towards the end of this year we'll have inflation down towards 2, 2 1/2% mark. we'll see slower economic growth later this year. bonds will do better the latter half of this year. right now stocks are doing great. we've been long equities since november. we continue to do that we're not raising cash here yet but i'm

certainly getting a little more itchy to pull back a little bit as we get further into the month. we'll see. charles: we're so spoiled. we see any red on the screen we start get being itchy, right? lance, thanks a lot. been too long, talk to you again soon. >> thank you. charles: my next guest says she said that nothing seemed to intimidate this market. i want to bring in macro advisors cofounder ayesha tariq. your headline in the market recap over the weekend can the market rally continue? main a rhetorical question but i will ask you for the answer? >> hi, charles, thank you for having me back. so well, as i said there is no easy answer to this but the truth is the current conditions do favor equities here. we think the u.s. economy remains relatively strong with wealth effects gaining ground. we're seeing a reflationary scenario and with the fed focused on cutting rate just to reduce the cost of borrowing we think that you know, it's a good

situation for equities to keep rallying. charles: right. >> we might see slight pullbacks here and there, but the rally will continue. charles: you know title, correlations are high. lance and i had a similar conversation. in three areas you're cautious on three fronts? >> yes, that's right. so with the economy being this strong we are a little worried and inflation being high as well, we are a little worried about you know, the curve steepening here and the longer term yields going up. in fact that's precisely what we're seeing today in today's market action. where we're seeing the long end of the curve pull up the curve even though the ned is determined to cut rates, when that happens, when the fed actually starts cutting we might see the u.s. treasury start issuing the longer end of the curve which will pull rates up even further. the other thing we're a little worried about is megacap techs. you know we're seeing rerating

in earnings. we think it has again from mag-7 to the terrific twos here and we might see some pullback in earnings over there. and finally the a.i. trade. charles: right. >> we still think the trade is still alive but we think it will take time to broaden out because it is expensive and challenging to implement here. charles: so let's talk about some of the stock picks. i will work from the bottom of the list. we have only a minute to go or so but utilities, i'm liking utilities as well. they look really intriguing, act much, much better. what is it about the utilities that are attractive for you here? >> that's right. i think it is an interesting situation for utilities. it is more for a longer term trade because we're seeing in advances in technology and manufacturing. a.i., all the data centers pull a lot of energy, they require a lot of energy, right? we think there is demand for energy over here and consequencely utilities.

>> i happen to agree with you. eagle mines, gold stock, gold continues to move up. we know the gold miners trailed gold tremendously. ii have a couple of gold miners that vent done anything. now they're starting to edge higher. is now the time to own the miners? >> i think so. this is one of the better ones with mines in tier one jurisdictions. they have a relatively high stock beta which means they have more upside when gold as you up. charles: air products, apd, it is another name you like, united therapeutics. go ahead. >> sorry. for air products is and energy trans figures play. they are the largest industrial gas company and because of the ira and tax credits here we think they will do well from hydrogen here, blue and green hydrogen. they have already started a few plants in the u.s. and they also have a plant here in the middle east. charles: let's leave it there.

great work as usual. i leaved reading your pieces offer the weekend. thank you. all right, folks, what's so special about a special dividend? well we'll ask the man who knows more about dividend investing than anyone, david bahnsen. he will be here to help you. the bulls make money in all environments especially this one. right after this. ♪. (vo) what does it mean to be rich? maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number... and more about discovering magic. rich is being able to keep your loved ones close. and also send them away. rich is living life your way. and having someone who can help you get there. the key to being rich is knowing what counts.

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the stock market does. in fact, most people don't find them all that exciting. but, if you're looking for the potential for consistent income that's federally tax-free. now is an excellent time to consider municipal bonds from hennion & walsh.

if you have at least $10,000 to invest, call and talk with one of our bond specialists at 1-800-217-3217. we'll send you our exclusive bond guide, free with details about how bonds can be an important part of your portfolio. hennion & walsh has specialized in fixed income and growth solutions for 30 years, and offers high-quality municipal bonds from across the country. they provide the potential for regular income are federally tax-free and have historically low risk. call today to request your free bond guide. 1-800-217-3217. that's 1-800-217-3217. her uncle's unhappy. 1-800-217-3217. i'm sensing an underlying issue. it's t-mobile. it started when we tried to get him under a new plan. but they they unexpectedly unraveled their “price lock” guarantee. which has made him, a bit... unruly. you called yourself the “un-carrier”. you sing about “price lock” on those commercials. “the price lock, the price lock...”

so, if you could change the price, change the name! it's not a lock, i know a lock. so how can we undo the damage? we could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity. their connection is unreal. and we could all un-experience this whole session. okay, that's uncalled for. ♪. charles: all right folks, what's going on in the world of dividends? no one is talking about them as much as we used to. when money markets paying 5%, bonds you get a yield there, it hasn't been what it used to be. look at this, a 20-year differential. stocks paid no dividend, paid no dividend outperforming stocks that pay high dividends. periodically that happens but look at these red circles. it really only briefly that ever happened. this has been going on for a few years now, people are wondering should they give up on dividends? here is the value paradox. dividend yields unloved among

active money managers. active funds look at exposure to the dividend yields. these are active fund managers. to me they should be buying it. why should they be buying it is up? because they're cheap, historically cheap. the enexpense seven yield based to the s&p 500, this is the history of this. it has come down a lot. bond managers are not nibbling, should you? let's bring in bahnsen group manager david bahnsen. david, i have to ask you about this, the dividend play, you pick pick specific stocks, you have a your way to go about it, overall the dividend play has seem to be fading on wall street >> s&p dropped 22%, nasdaq dropped 35%, our dividend portfolio was up 6%. most index growth were down five or six percent. we were up. my point, we beat 20% in the down year. don't forget the defensive of it.

charles: right. >> the chart you're talk about more recently, it's amazon and -- charles: a.i. stocks. >> a.i., with nvidia and so forth. really it is a value growth factor consideration right now. the question is, can companies that never return to capital to shareholders be considered good long-term holds? history has punished companies that do that. eventually management gets too arrogant and sets money on fire. charles: sew last week guess, joined ford, hsbc, ford, warehousers offering what they call a special dividend. according to research report, this is the journal of financial economics, this is 1999 t was intriguing. in 191940, 62% of dividend paying firms paid at least one special dividend. in 1950, 46% of them paid, special dividends. this is sort of a common practice is a long time ago. more recently the companies that

offered special dividends near term the stocks underperformed but a year later they over performed pretty strongly. is this something people should look at? when you see a headline xyz is overing a special dividend, it seems pretty enticing? >> two things going on. historically there was lumpiness in profits they co-pay special dividends. after erisa passed in 1984, a lot of holders in retirement funds want periodic dividends. companies say we think we have this much to pay out in a year. instead of going lumpy with a special dividend we'll sort of average it out. it was sort of maturity in american capital markets. there are companies we own a few of them, have a reoccurring regular dividend but pay a special dividend on top because some of their profit wills be more lumpy. it depends the circumstance, not one size fits all charles.

charles: i got you. you mentioned dividend growers, dividend growth, something intriguing in terms of dividend growth, helping investors not just on that specific company but helping to understand the nature of the stock or the underlying company? >> that is the most important thing, you're buying the company for its future profit generating and they are going to continue to generate profits in the future, the question you have what are they doing with them? charles: right. >> if they have to put all of them back in the business forever, that is called a pones sy scheme. at some point that something will go wrong. you can't withdraw from that. you're exposed to market timing whenever you withdraw. dividends give you a timing inestimate and healthy cash flows indicate to a healthy company. this is important. charles: line manager with shareholders. >> company desperately trying to hold on to all profits in the c-suite, so they can do m&a, deals, these are junkies, ceo junkies constantly using your

money to go buy other companies over half of which end up not going well. mergers and acquisitions sometimes they're hugely profitable but the majority of them are not. charles: right. >> we want to get a profit stream back to us as investors because we are the shareholders, we own the company. we have a minority interest. so we can't be in control. this is a way for us to derisk our investment. charles: so the bottom line then, these companies that are growing their dividend, particularly on a really sustained, regular base, you know it is a checklist? they check a lot of important boxes off that all investors should be aware of? >> exactly right. they have to have lower debt profile generally, higher free cash flow generation and a less cyclical business. if you can pay a dividend and grow a dividend consistently you must have a pretty good consistent business. charles: great stuff, david. >> thank you. charles: glad you could help us out. jay powell on friday he is not in ready to cut-rates but what wilt happen when the jobs report

come out? at the fomc meeting he seemed like he want ad excuse to cut rates. we'll be right back. again, good stuff, man. ♪ (fisher investments) in this market, you'll find fisher investments is different than other money managers. (other money manager) different how? aren't we all just looking for the hottest stocks? (fisher investments) nope. we use diversified strategies to position our clients' portfolios for their long-term goals. (other money manager) but you still sell investments that generate high commissions for you, right? (fisher investments) no, we don't sell commission products. we're a fiduciary, obligated to act in our client's best interest. (other money manager) so when do you make more money, only when your clients make more money? (fisher investments) yep. we do better when our clients do better. at fisher investments, we're clearly different.

your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire ♪. charles: you know the market was closed friday but a lot going on. we had the pce report and jay powell actually spoke and said he is not in a rush to

hike, cut-rates rather. i have got to tell you something, although that dovetails with what chris waller said, not the feeling i got from the fomc. maybe this is why. kelly o'grady with more. >> reporter: chair powell said the pce was in line with expectations but admittedly there could be bumpy times ahead. he underscored the fed could cut-rates when inflation is more stable but now all eyes are really on the jobs report as a potential trigger for those cuts to begin. that comes after powell shifted the emphasis on the a shock to the labor picture over inflation during the fomc q&a you mentioned. what is so interesting this goes against 100% what americans are concerned about. i want to show you this "gallup poll." look at this, among the concerns inflation is at the top. 55% think that is a great deal, concerned about that a great deal. unemployment is all the way at the bottom. that is kind of an interesting

piece there. meanwhile some other troubling economic data came in on friday. americans saw, disposable personal income stumble but spending surged. so translation, you're spending here, okay, outpaced the rate at which the income was froing. so it's unclear how much of this increase reflects inflation but it came at the expense of savings. okay that contracted from 4.1% here down to 3.6%. now real personal consumption, i mean that has been outpacing income since 2021. you can see this is real personal, rather, spending and here's the income but that has been helped in part by all the free, excess money and savings from the pandemic. that now however, this is nearing zero. sew this trend could become even more problematic once all of that savings goes away. now the stock market though, has thrived with all of that free money. it has rallied according to the

script. you can see the s&p 500 returns, this is 2022 to 2023 are on trend with how past rate hike cycles have gone but bonds seem to be leery about something. they're not buying the coast is clear. if you look at the returns, that is significantly lagging the previous cycles following that final rate cut. finally though, it is worth noting that democrats are not buying the narrative either. jason furman, president obama's chair of economic advisors he couldn't resist taking a shot at paul krugman as core pce has now turned higher on a three month basis. you can see september, 2020, took a victory lap. team transitory for the win. he points out we're up 3.5% on a 3 month basis. charles: ouch a little infighting there. kelly, thank you so much. jpmorgan asset management fixed

kelsey berro, white house chief economist, and seb, joe lavorgna. wall street always celebrates, americans are spending well, they're spending more. the savings well are running dry. red yard rates are through the roof. answers are through the roof. how does the federal reserve view this? is this good news, that spending is through the roof even though at the expense of savings, or is sitting more ominous? >> so i don't think that the fed is particularly concerned right now. that's because the consumer is spending bawls they're fully employed. so ultimately the speed limit for consumption is going to be income growth. and income growth will be generated because we're in a very tight labor market which we will see again on friday. we're going to see jobs increase and unemployment low. charles: you're saying we can keep spending money forever. i don't think so. we wouldn't have bankruptcy courts. we wouldn't have people, how do you have prosperity if you spend forever?

we just found out friday month over month wages were down, inflation adjusted? how can this go on forever? >> it can't go on forever and that is absolutely true. so the savings rate right now is at 3.6% and if you look at the trend of savings, it's buy low the pre-covid trend, meaning that the excess savings from the pandemic is being drawn down. charles: right. >> and we haven't talked about the fact that we always talk about things in terms of the aggregate. we don't talk about things in terms of the quintiles of earners right? if at the lower quintiles they have already run through their excess savings. charles: sure. >> they're the ones who are also increasing their use of credit cards and you're seeing it in the increased use of revolving credit. charles: we call it marginal propensity to consume. people don't have money. not used to it. they get a windfall, they spend it and spend more on top of it, joe. >> that's right, charles. lower quintile are dissavers. they don't have savings. they go into debt.

take on a lot of debt. we're seeing that with credit cards, things of that sort. broadly speaking, it was interesting at the earlier segment unemployment not being a factor in people's psyche. what is interesting about the payroll data is that whenever it turns, almost assuredly the consensus, because they always miss recessions, whenever it happens this year, next year, whatever it is, the payroll data do not tell us where we're going. whenever the next recession happens we'll look really good. all of sudden we won't. charles: right. >> what is also important. i find interesting things that lead the labor market have not improved much. the factory work week continued to slow. manufacturing component of ism was still under 50. more importantly the staffing, employment agencies they still look really weak. so you have this massive dichotomy between what is happening in the labor market, the broader, top down numbers, the kind of microsecond tomorrow side of things which do not show the frother, sturdiness that

might exist. charles: we hear a lot of folks on the street say don't worry about it this time is a little different, except the bond market. so let me ask you about that because the 10-year, you know the returns at the end of a rate hiking cycle by now the bond market is usually taking off. this bond market is a little hesitant. yields are hanging in there. in fact breaking out of key resistance today. what is the bond market telling you, kelsey? >> there is one thing to note with that analysis, it is just looking at treasurys. it is not looking at credit and so far this year, credit, investment grade corporate debt and high yield corporate debt has done much better. charles: right. >> that's because of this confidence around corporate fundamentals and the strength of the u.s. economy. so if i'm looking at building a bond portfolio right now for a client, i can build a fairly high quality portfolio let's say with six, 6 1/2% yield, even if yields stay around here, right? they don't come down.

charles: right. >> the fed only cuts very modestly, very gradually, you should expect your return in that bond portfolio be very close to the income. i know we love to talk about equities but look at high yields. that is higher up in the capital structure. you can get eight to 9% on a leveraged loan portfolio or a high yield portfolio. charles: that is it how we ride this thing out but i am curious though, because, we do have the jobs report on friday, joe. powell weren't out of his way to mention a hiccup in the labor force, right? we mad the .2 of a percent, that was surprise. no other major firm had 3.9% going. again i couple that with the bond market which is the canary in the coal mine. there are parts of this economy we used historically as indicators but they're not, we're not being fearful about any of it. >> no, we're not. up the thing is, mrs. come back to the fed, the fed wants to buy the optionality, in case

something is weak they can pivot toward rate cuts. the inflation numbers have been a little bit better than the case a month or so ago. that is probably one of the reasons the bond market has not rallied as much as history suggests. we have 11 months before the first hike that is historically long. another reason why the bond market hasn't rallied. if the labor market weakens, it will be very interesting at the same time the inflation numbers turn out to be sticky. the fed will have a problem in terms of how it markets rate cuts especially between two conventions. talk about a political spot. charles: the rally began on the sun shun of six or seven rate cuts. when the market started saying only three, didn't matter, growth would take us somewhere. but if you have have inflation eating at profits, household spending and corporate profits that is a heck of a one-two punch. you gave us a strategy how to survive in this environment. joe, what would you do? where should people be positioned? >> kelsey just mentioned corporate portfolio six to 6 1/2%. you know what that implies,

charles? deeply negative equity risk premium. doesn't mean the stock mark it es going to correct. doesn't mean the stock market won't anomaly make money for period of time, risk/reward very much favors the fixed income side right now than is it does the stock side. charles: more and mower people saying that. two of the bets, two of the smart evident, wish we had more time. thanks. folks time to take another look maybe at small caps. you know they keep going pretty good under the radar. we have a special guest. gary k. will help us break it all down. is this sort of a blip or maybe an opportunity right after this. ♪.

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just like not all internet providers are the same. don't settle. you want fast. get fast. you want reliable. get reliable. you want powerful. get powerful. get real deal speed, reliability and power with xfinity. she shoots from here? that's kinda my thing. ♪. charles: the top of the show we talked about how these big stocks that have led this market sort of lagged last week but what didn't lag was small caps. especially small cap value, folks. take a look at last week. small cap value outperformed big, big time. this has been a stealth rally but it's coming on strong. in fact now the small cap value is up for the year. remember all year long this was deeply in the red. now it is in the plus coal lump and it's coming at the expense

of large cap growth. so this is what we talk about rotation. has growth finally stumbled. if so, is this the changing ever the guard you should make different changes in your own portfolio? let's bring in kaltbaum capital management, president, pox news contributor, gary kaltbaum. gary, is it time to add some small cap exposure. >> well, full disclosure we tried about six weeks ago and stopped out and took another bite. on a relative basis they're definitely acting better. on march 9th we sold our tech. that was the day after that huge ugly reversal. the only thing we have left is facebook or meta at this point in time but i must tell you i got a couple worries in here we're watching very closely. one is 4.354 own the 10-year yield, a break above there, on top of the fact oil prices are heading north, that's a one-two punch. i will be worried about especially when there are no

bears on wall street right now and a lot of complacency. so very important that those two things are watched and, it's now commodity time to a certain extent as the commodities are really in force here. charles: you know what? you read my mind because i have got a commodities chart up mere. this line here, look at this, folks, to gary's point, absolutely exploding. we're breaking some key resistance levels. you couple that with the 10-year bond yield, what is the message here what are markets trying to tell us? >> well, regardless what anybody says that would be commodity inflation and the big worry, all the talk about the fed and the fed and the fed and what they're going to do and what they're not going to do, if the real market, the 10-year yield starts heading towards five the fed will be in a little bit of a box. if inflation is picking up the fed should not lower rates. they should be standing pat. we're at a very important moment. hopefully the 10-year-year-old

stays down. i have to tell you it looks like it is ready to percolate above those levels. we'll see if the market can take it. i can tell you coming into this week the broad market has been acting great, financials, fine, hoisting fine, a little bit of weakness in the growth and tech arena but after what they did not a big deal but again you can go from love to hate in the market quickly. we have our eyes fixed quickly, my friend. charles: looking of love, hate, this is the china market t gets up to the resistance point, it gets down, gets up, time after time but now it is actually breaking through t held what was resistance as support. are you buying any chinese stocks here? >> we haven't yet but if the china market is going to bottom this is how it occurs. it's broken back above the 50-day moving average. it's sticking and you are seeing a little bit better action in the big names. i con promise if alibaba and

baidu don't get going, the fxi, which is the etf won't get going a little bit better. we have not touched it. i bought gold. so far so good. we'll by any oils on any pullback here. i'm not exactly thrilled with gold and oil thrilled with the rest 6 market but i go where the ball is bouncing my friend. charles: i hear you. i get back to the 5% on the 10-year. i have to be honest with you, we get above 4.7 i'm raising a lot of cash, gary. >> i can't argue. there is a lot of talk about inflation and interest rates. i've been talking a lot on my radio show about the debt and interest rates. what this administration is doing, it is not talking about enough. we're 2.7 trillion was added to our debt in the last year and they have guaranteed two trillion dollars deficit for the next, 10, 15, 20, years if not more based on their, just unimaginable amount of spending and the size of government. that's to be watched.

why? we have bond, bonds coming out, tones of them, trillions in the negligence year, if those bond funds don't work out well, all of sudden yields start spiking that is the cost of capital going up and i can promise you markets will not be too friendly if that occurs. charles: you're absolutely right. gary, thank you very much appreciate it. >> thanks. charles: on that night reminder, the two biggest story this is year, a.i., many equating nvidia toe cisco. i wrote an entire on that and federal reserve in my book, "unbreakable investor." get your free company. go to unbreakable investor to.com. you pay for the postage and handling but the book is free. this is great time to get it if you haven't got init already. we'll be deserving into my book more on "unbreakable investor" town hall, april 24th, 2:00 p.m. 2:00 p.m. last couple were standing room only. go to eventbrite.com, right now, search charles payne, get your

free ticket. i will see you, next month or this month. april 24th. this is in a few weeks. i will see you in a few weeks. all right, folks, the global population is imploding, it is absolutely imploding. this could be the biggest financial story of them all. hadley heath manning just what happens to our economy if this keeps happening. we'll be right back. ♪.

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three weeks ago ferguson wrote an article titled global population crash is sci-fi anymore. what about the world total fertility rate, the number of children the average woman bears in her lifetime, 1970s itself below what they call replacement rate. it's getting worse. china hospitals stopped newborn delivery services and we just learned birthrate down for the 15th year in a row at a new record low.

a shortage several result in deterioration of prosperity for even a lot worse. you know i had this discussion more than once but is becoming more acute, is there a reason this is happening? >> some people will say become more expensive but i don't buy that because ultimately we seen many countries try to make policies changes subsidized free childcare support welfare programs, paid family leave and many of the policies haven't turned around the bus we are talking about so the causes are greater than economic ones. they find a route ultimately and i think marriage, many will have children when they are married and that's the direction we want to go in but so many people are

struggling. >> you would never have thought this would be a problem yet it is, a major problem throughout europe and china had the one child policy and tried their best to revisit and they haven't been able to do that. the ramifications think we talked about, let's talk about ramifications. >> for one thing, we see united states with a population of people over the age of 85 quadruple by 2040 that we will see a huge need an elder care, huge amount of spending programs like social security and medicare and healthcare and retirement for population. meanwhile on the worker side, worker shortage, shortage of labor and to paraphrase margaret thatcher, the problem with the fertility bust is eventually we will run out of countries laborers.

we've been taking laborers from other parts of the world to immigration policies about the most welcoming country in the world. 1 million come to the united states every year and they were care and contribute to our economy. see that level of immigration and it's likely we won't because the rest of the world is suffering from fertility and we will have to figure out another way to fund these programs that will make payments and healthcare retirements for citizens. >> the solution would be a baby boom, i don't know how you spark something like that. more legal immigration think that will be tough as nations need their own or robots. it is tough. >> automation certainly is going to take some jobs and transform them for the future. ultimately i would like that first option you mentioned, more babies born into the world and the way we do that is through the culture around having families will supporting young families and communities. family in their life that maybe

offered to do babysitting for them this weekend and support young families. >> one thing i found interesting whatever anyone talked about the economic aspect is the poorest countries in the world have the highest fertility rate which is intriguing to me and when we were a coronation, we had higher fertility rates, we found out today with government as wealthy as a nation but still they say economics. i think it's something social and the social fabric, it's worrisome. not happy with the topic. thank you, we'll talk again real soon. i want to pick up on the immigration part of this conversation. america, we've been so welcoming, blessed to have the immigration policies we got and immigration is a blessing for america but uncontrolled force has been a disaster for all citizens but the conversation needs to address, needs to be

addressed because nativeborn americans opt out. they can afford not to be in the labor force, nuts. take lastly, this tragic key bridge collapse, he saw men from guatemala, honduras and mexico mentioned as being missing. baltimore's population from 61% black, 27% white. two and a half% asian and 2% hispanic. more than 20% of the population lives in poverty. unemployment rate getting to rocket higher, 4% double the state. why aren't we training americans not only technology jobs which by the way u.s. border went from 84% in jobs to 76%, quietly training folks for manual labor jobs like fixing the bridge? how can someone stay at home in a system like this? we have a system instantly

sending out unskilled workers and paying them not to work or what you see in california beginning today, minimum wage fast food restaurant soaring to $20 an hour, we already know what's going to happen. price of food, fast food will go through the roof and people will lose their jobs. there will be household in california for bringing less money to the household so the other problem is if you are a school and struggling and you don't want to get better, you have to, society is saying don't worry about it. here's the irony, california is by far the most migrants so why aren't they eating their own kids, kids born in california? it's not but it's going to come back to haunt us in so many w ways. this market looking shaky here is liz claimant. >> thank you very much, happy monday. want to flag our