maria: welcome back.

good friday morning. thanks very much for joining us this morning. i am maria bartiromo. it is friday, april 5, it is 8:00 a.m. on the button on the east coast i hope you are having a good morning this morning a texas immigration law is still tied up in a federal appeals court texas's sb4, would allow state law enforcement to arrest and detain illegal migrants fifth circuit court blocking the measure did again latch week biden administration continues to i am a to hold to keep this law on hold. joining me now texas governor greg abbott, governor great to see you this morning thank you

so much for being here you are front line of border crisis have been from day one, have been doing everything to try to protect texas and country, your reaction, to this latest blocking of your law. >> so this law, we made oral arguments, in federal court of appeals, candidly made arguments biden administration was incapable of responding to, that is that there are three laws on the books that biden is not enforcing, one is to deny illegal entry into the country -- he detain anybody here illegally third billed border barriers biden administration doing nontexas law o authorizes state of texas to do all three of those things, we believe, there a the federal courts should allow texas, to basically be enforcing federal laws, because biden is not enforcing them. maria: i don't understand why the president of the united states is not enforcing the laws of our country.

what is the motivation to keep this border wide-open? i mean the fact they fought you to end on risear wire stunning enough he does not want you he arresting people who break the law in your own state. >> outrages, there is a far-left progressive agenda in this country, the one catering to them maria remember also that is the more people that he allows in illegally, those people can be counted toward census to apportion members of congress he electors for election even though california may lose citizens to states like texas they are gaining residents will count towards the census by illegal immigrants allowed by joe biden. >> simple as it is he wants oeb border he knows policies cannot win another term cannot win democrats more time, so he figures let me get foreigners

in to be voters of democrats. >> crazy. chaotic americans are facing consequences, through murders of committed on people like laken riley so many other across this country exactly why joe biden is so underwater in the polling data i think the reason he will lose the election, is because he has done a poor job illegal immigration. >> unless voting for him he should not have illegals voting for him one thing tried to look at that is with, everybody across the border illegally my give a birth to a child could be able to vote in years to come. maria: a longer term goal here what you just said, was really untiling by director fbi christopher ray warning increased terrorist threat facing the country as more dangerous individuals cross-border into texas, san diego are former president

trump agrees doubling down on warning about chinese nationals illegally entering to build army from win what the 45th president told me in february. >> 8 to 10 million illegals right now on joe biden's watch are you going deport them all i have to deport a lot not sustainable not just for america it is africa asia from all over the world from china 28,000 people last fie months, 28,000, building an army mostly men almost all men from age 18 to 25 -- >> i am told chinese paying 35,000 dollars, 50,000 dollars a head to come to the southern border, are they being directing by the communist party to come here. >> i believe so i believe we are having a terrorist attack one hundred percent, one hundred percent. >> governor this is stunning i

want your take on the christian christian we know they have rules laws you can't say i am going to america i am out of here you need approval, so are they being directed what specifically is going on you're there at the border running your state, trying to protect the state i and the country. what can you tell us about chinese nationals. >> i can tell you far worse than you said the reason the people that you were talking about whether from china or elsewhere, those are people who are known coming across the border the reality is if you are a terrorist, if you were here for nefarious purposes you will be paying extra to cartel to get you across the border without being detected the key concern that i have is the number of terrorists on the watch list who made it across the border undetected many roaming around could cause a 9/11 type attack. what giving you this worry tell me where you see? because it is what you don't

know the unknown? >> it is what we don't know, again, it is because of how wide-open the border is, caused by joe biden, also because of joe biden's reflect to track down apprehend detain everybody across the border illegally. congress already passed a law requires president of united states to detain everybody across the border president is not economy with that law the result a fiscal what you are talking about we could have a catastrophic terrorist attack, in this country, because of joe biden's open border policies. maria: this is is to scary, stunning, meanwhile you look what is going on across the country people are sick of it leaving new york, california, and moving to texas. moving to florida. governor i know you gave keynote speech last night at new york gop gala, with hope empire state could flip red

watch this here ice clip. >> in texas, we had more than 100 years more than 100 years of only democrat leadership in our state only in recent years that republicans finally won leadership positions in texas, because we applied good old if a shunningsed fashioned common sense to wirp elects. >> can it happen in new york ahead of your speech new york city mayor eric adams took a jab at you watch this. >> i am going to offer a stay in one of the hearststo see what he tried ins how we are treated with dignity, respect he should have shown as well, i am not quite sure yes is here, what he is doing while here. but, he is going to see how

you can manage the crises the coordination not one child family sleeping on street in the city of new york. >> unbelievable to me that he blames you more than he blames president biden i guess. >> well, maria, really outrageous whether you consider that the backdrop of the city that mayor is presiding over as opposed to gimmick comments like that, what he needs to be doing, is making, the subways safer for people being attacked on subways the street assessor where you saw illegal immigrants, attack police officers in times square, everything this police officer killed by somebody who had been arrested 20 times, any time mayor opens his mouth needs to be talking about ways to make his community safer for fellow new yorkers opposed to other gimmicks. >> how are you able to grow the economy in texas, and see this euphoria from an economic

basis even with all this pressure from the illegals? mayor adams says he needs a billion dollars more money to pay for housing in new york. >> maria, what we are growing our economy, we have fastest growing economy of any large state in the united states of america, has had surplus 30 billion dollars another surplus this year because we have no-income tax, we cut through red tape make it easy for businesses to succeed in state of texas we have safety, where we focus on making, our communities safe, so that people can live there, work there, in a very good environment. >>yeah, well, there you go, that is why you are seeing businesses move. president biden set to raise taxes by 5 1/2 trillion dollars, if he gets his budget just released, governor good to see you this morning thank you. >> thank you, mayor. >> all right. governor greg abbott joining us this morning, quick break then we are getting started

this hour coming up, the magnificient 7 dwindled down to fab four dan niles is here, nicely investment management dan niles his take ahead of the march jobs report don't miss that we're coming back you are watching "mornings with maria" live on fox business. ♪ i wanna dance with somebody i wanna feel heat somebody yeah. i you wannadance with somebody -- ♪ . ♪ i have type 2 diabetes, but i manage it well ♪ ♪ jardiance! ♪ ♪ it's a little pill with a big story to tell ♪ ♪ i take once-daily jardiance ♪ ♪ at each day's start! ♪ ♪ as time went on it was easy to see ♪ ♪ i'm lowering my a1c! ♪

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back, well a much jobs' report out in a few minutes, we will hear the numbers in 15 minutes' time the expectation call for 200,000 jobs added to the economy month of march unemployment rate steady 3.9% get into it with portfolio manager dan niles great to see you this morning thank you so much for being here. >> my pleasure, particular. >> let me get your take on the expectations, you say you

entered the year thinking s&p would be up 20% on solid economy. but you're not discounting thing could slow down perhaps a recession right. >> absolutely i think if you think about the last three years the consensus wrong every time last year thinking a recession there wasn't one the year before people thought, the magnificient 7 were called to get right hikes no issue obviously, magnificient 7 within the down 46% two years ago. so it is really been -- a period of surprises because never arrived through a global pandemic before, so right now i am not discounting that we can have a recession but not my base case my base case a lot more job options people, the economy strong won't get recession stock market so will inside climbing bond yields,

climbing oil prices oil is back up close to 90 dollars a barrel, here, and that has got to be a negative for the macrostory; right? the? >> absolutely, and i said before on interviews with you it is number one thing i watch, because, oil feeds into inflation everywhere. it shows up in milk you buy at grocery store, shows up in plastics everything else energy to heat your home that is the biggest worry, because to your point, brent is up 18%, year-to-date. west texas, is up 20% year-to-date. and so you look at that combined with bond yields to your point about 44 basis points from beginning of the year. to about 4.3% today, and that's why i don't discount possibility of a recession but that is balanced begins what we're waiting for jobs' report

right now at least the number of people unfloyd relative to job options 35% more job options strong, it is hard to get a recession when you got that many more job sneepgs euphoria around artificial intelligence, people are comparinging to what we saw in the dot come boon in 90s i hope dan niles is hacker me the shot went down seeing about that, john lonski jumper in here, because we are waiting on dan niles, in terms of how he is allocating money right now, and i want to get your take on macrostory. dan, i want to stay right there going to fix in a come right back then your take on if you still see magnificient 7 as the place to put money stay with us march jobs errors out 10 minutes' time. dan niles will be back in two

minutes stay with us. .

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i have people come up to me all the time and ask me, "does it really work?" and all i have to say is, "here i am. it works." my advice for everyone is to go with golo. it will release your fat and it will release you. back, we are back with dan niles this morning, i want to take a look at magnificient 7, google amazon, apple meta nvidia tesla agreering new group of four amazon microsoft nvidia dan nicely with me dan you called surviving companies fantastic four after better-than-expected first-quarter earnings i want your take how you are allocating capital in the tech sector dr. have been very few people have seen this, gain in tech, sooner than you have you allocated capital to apple,

just the right time ridden that rally how do you want to invest along these magnificient 7 stocks? >> before relay of meta, because they are using ai the best in terms of recommending as well as monetizing the ads on videos to was one of our topics last year obviously, almost tripled this year up another 40% or so, we love nvidia as well, because they are enableing ai, that stock up over 70% this year. amazon is, to run a.i. on platform aws, retail business is really starting to hum along the excess. >> we see doubling we like that name microsoft obviously, we see them gaining share and in search less than 5% share

google has over 90% share given microsoft investment, chatgpt we see a benefit in the infuriate the four we look, magnificient 7 as they were called we fou called fantastic four. >> i like that you and i lived through the dot-comboom dot-com bust there was a moment when anything with a dot-com at the end was rallying, and going to sky-high valuations even if it didn't make sense because there was no revenue, no earnings, is this ai euphoria similar to that? >> i mean it is and isn't, you have to remember that if you do the analogy, next gait navigator came out december 1949, so if you fast forward that through march 96 same 15

months, since chatgpt showed upend he of 2022 the s&p up 41% over 15 medicines from neither escape navigator 94 through march of 96, if you look at s&p today same 15 month time period from end of 2022 to today up 37%. you have to remember, that gain in the s&p 500 of 41% over knife years improved to 204%, you still got i think a long way to go because you are only a little over a year, into this ai boom it took five years for internet boom to hit climactic peak then close i don't think enough time has gone by evaluations a lot more reasonable cisco at peak p/e 135 times forward earnings today nvidia trading 40 times earnings from 990%, cisco

growing 60% at peak, think i feel more room to run. >> okay, fair point but you write you say that for the past two years the move in tech stocks has had more to do with fed, than earnings, that in 2022 magnificient 7 within the down 46% as fed went through fastest rate hiking cycle since 1970s then in 2023, the fed stopped raising rates investors started discounting up to seven right cuts now having a debate about whether or not we are getting any rate cuts the market is expecting three rate cuts yesterday neel kashkari said obviously, owed loud i am penciling in two rate cuts maybe no rate cuts i spoke with jim grant from grant observer on this program listen to what he said watch this. >> you are not expecting a cut in rates anytime soon. no. well they say microsoft -- three-ish is fine. >> 3% inflation. >> yes there is concern over

inflation, and to focus on financial stability if they would he define it, however, i think also a chance maria, that the fed raises, if they are confronted with accelerating rate of inflation they feel no choice who is to say 3.2% thing couldn't go up, 80 dollar oil price no longer 70. maria: and now close to 90. dan, you know jim grant so do i very smart, says there is a chance fed could raise rates if that happens what happens to the stock market? >> if raised raises it is game over you and i both know that i don't think the fed is going to raise rates, but -- is at the possibility really high if not going to cut three times market thinking to, whether cut in june or not point flip whether two rate cuts or three, i think hard to argue with if you look at cpi, it

was 3% in june of last year. at a time is 3.2 so not -- if you are optimistic you say yeah. but if you look at core pce, i think is ridiculous but what people look at everybody needs energy, food to live, let's take that out look at core pce look at that you can say optimist to 2.5 same period of time from june last year that is what the fed looks at, i think you brought up earlier, hey dan oil has gone up a lot rates really high, a recession, that is what fed is thinking why i think we will get rate cuts this year i am not sure if three i don't think we will, but we will have to see how this year plays out, the way i look at my investments i am trying to pick -- nothing to do with what fed is going to do talk about, i like those names estimates going up particularly for three nvidia

meta amazon, but i also think three other fantastic or magnificent seven names i don't like google, because losing market share i don't like tesla huge competition, andev demand falling down, i don't like apple if you look at revenues they haven't seen grown march quarter looks like flat the march quarter three years ago i think you really have to pick stocks not like last kwheering when everything went up missing numbers like apple, tesla all year this year those stocked are geblth punished i think will continue wrerngs matter i am looking forward to this earnings season i think you are going to have a lot of blow-up as well as companies that do very well. >> i think a great point because. reporter: back about to get into earnings going to dictate you say weakest win magnificent 7 apple, tesla also had worst earnings

outlook of the best stocks had worst earnings outlook. >> last year nobody cared about that apple earnings estimates december quarter reported, during last year went down 10%. the stock readily over 40% tesla down almost 50% stock went up one hundred percent, so this year that is obviously, not the case. maria: you got to stick with fundamentals stay right there hold that thought march jobs' report lauren simonetti with breaking news. >> stronger than expected headline number for march 303,000 jobs added in the month of march. expectation was 200,000, revisions february arrived down by 5,000 to 270,000, unemployment rate, unexpectedly dropped 3.9% two-year high, o to 3.8% immediate reaction maria i am seeing futures moving a little bit higher, and -- getting at the moment trying to get rates

there stronger than expected at report i will continue to dive in to get into other stuff. maria: look, we're looking at a markets up, loss of a stepping fast march jobs' report out better-than-expected, hotter than expected 30 ,000 lauren toll us dan niles your reaction to this report you do up dow up 20 points going lower. >> the market sold off pretty hard there was worst the down day since february. and don't forget adp report earlier this week, came in much higher than expected, as well 184,000, so, i think everybody including myself expecting this to come in higher than 200,000, 300,000 obviously, higher than even i expected, but you have to remember a lot of moves

yesterday obviously, iran, israel, conflict a lot to do with it discounting we all is expected this number to come in hot at the end of the day started discussing the economy is doing better than everybody expected we are were thinking a recession late last year 12 months ago 3% gdp growth right now looks like that is going to continue for a while so i think you are in this phase where earnings, is the thing you have to look at, because number may have come in 300,000 but as looking at futures right now, s&p, they are up, so, that tells you a lot i think the reaction today to that, and all worrying about land an lunch weapons at israel over the weekend if market closes up tells you a lot about this, but remember you got to have right stock if you have wrong ones like tesla not going to be doing well >> by the way, i should point out that, this survey versus you household survey very

different, okay? so the jobs numbers employment gains are a lot weaker until household survey to point out, by the way, we have another revision the revision for february, first week we harder are the jobs were up 275,000 jobs, now we see it that is up to 270,000 jobs so there was a downward revision for february as we expected all revisions joining us right now for the rest of the hour snbcontract a former chief commitment white house, joe lavorgna back, the real rave revolution alfredo or tides with us crossmark chief executive officer bob doll here, are former trump economic adviser steve moore here, and john lonsity with dan niles great, great panel jobs numbers, joe kicking things off with you your reaction to this jobs' report. >> very good, maria, the household employment up almost

500,000 unemployment rate fell workweek, was stable, it looks really good right now certainly better than consensus expectations better than other data might suggest pmiers suggested 24 be weakening employment from march things look good even the private sector job growth, over 200,000 if i take out healthcare looking at private, xhealthcare 150, a good number no question. >> right so good number is it too good for rate cuts bob? yesterday we heard from kashkari saying i am pens nilling two cuts chance no cut if economy is on fire like this we got 303,000 jobs in the month of march, why cut interest rates? >> because, the economy is stronger than expected, inflation recently is not coming down. you are absolutely right the

probability pushed out in time. >> steve your reaction. >> well, i hate this idea that good news for the economy, is bad news for the stock market, i never understood the logic old-fashioned fill incompetency curve idea growth causes inflation growth doesn't cause inflation i am worried about inflation for other reasons look what happened to the k34078d prices since beginning commodity prices up 13% somebody has to explain why would fed be cutting rates when we have an inflation problem, we have not slayedin the drag-i am looking 5% inflation next few months based on forward-looking indicators gold, commodity the fed should not be, cutting rates i am no, not saying should raising them i am with

joe a solid report over the last year dollar revisions on initial jobs' report, maria, down a million jobs, so we will see if this number holds up in months to come. maria: rates are soaring okay the 10-year yield right now is up 8 basis points, putting the yield at a level right below 4.4%. 4.39% right now on alternative year john lonski reaction. >> that is right the treasury bond market telling us there is not much room for this economy to grow, without putting more upward pressure on prices, it makes no sense. that the fed would be cutting rates, what is very much a full employment economy, where inflation is once again on the rise. maria: that is what we're seeing this morning, alfredo or tides assess the jobs market how do you see it?

>> yeah, the -- the wall street, main street picture is very, very different, than we have on main street. and when i go out talk to, you know, restaurant owners, are patrons, just regular people regular folks on main street, the inflation issue is still a major, major factor i think "the wall street journal" just yesterday showed that groceries since post-pandemic, 40%, credit card rates where they are right now i don't think there is a rate cut i have been saying that all along. now with inflation the way it is now, i don't see that coming our small business owners regular consumer credit card -- excuse me credit card debt is at highest levels they are the ones suffering, those 1099s out there aren't picked up in the establishment survey, i mean those are the folks that are really hurting, every day person, you are

every day small business owner, those are the folks that are really hurting wall street main street, wall street, k street pretty rosy. >> all right. i want to come back to you in a minute, alfredo get your take on where specifically jobs are as we watch crude oil 8666, brent crude 90.89 a barrel as an investor which you are you've got to put money to work you see a jobs' report out like today, what is your next move? >> my next move is to really go -- to stock market going up is continuing to shed that is a strong jobs number you can't count object fed bailing you out with rate cuts you have to have for these companies so, that has become have been bigger focus in the week when we start to have the first set of earnings coming out, if you are missing numbers, you saw

tesla delivery nebz how stock reacted when they missed even though already down 20 some odesantis% now down over 30%, you've got to get working telling a great story how life is going to be five years from now how you are going to do great, that is not going to cut it anymore you are going to have to show numbers make them good. maria: dan, where is the growth i mean talking about the tech sector, but you also have tapped into rally in will commodities have you not what do you want to do in terms of commodities when you see copper gold, oil, et cetera, et cetera, moving up. >> so we've got investments in the space in -- iranian as well surge in nuclear energy we think poret one of the things it does power-hungry we think going to help drive it or fintech stocks to your point you have to broaden beyond just the headline names that everybody has been

focused on, for the last year and change. off a.i. what we're trying to do move outside of that look in some s smaller cap areas as well. , and so, i think that is the big for the rest of the year multiples aren't going to continue to expand the when you've got inflation this high economy strong fed likely to move from three rate cuts to maybe one, or two, maybe not depending how thingsings go. maria: joe i am coming to you next i want your analysis on this report, first let's to lauren simonetti has breakdown of this report right now, what can you tell us. >> bulk jobs healthcare 72000 government, 71,000 construction at 39,000 pleaseure hospitality 49,000 return to pre-covid-19 levels headline number 303,000 jobs added as number of unemployment unemployed people false from 6 1/2 to 6.4

million. average really earnings, as expected up .3% on month, 34.69 an hour. up 4.1% on the year. as expected, also, feding interpretation of all this if you look at the -- the fed watch tool, there is a 54.67% chance of a june fed rate cut, that is down 4 points from right before this number came out maria. maria: okay. that is great analysis i like the fact that we're seeing job creation in healthcare, that is important. and that has been a consistent situation now for awhile. what what strikes you most joe what do you want to say about the nuts and bolts of this report. >> healthcare is important, because that is tied into government spending government jobs have been very -- very robust so question why is the economy, outperformed expectations, one of the reasons is we have had significant government

spending so, for example, look at the spending data from the treasury pretty -- running 5 to 6% annual rate very fast. since january of 2021, i calculated effectively about three 1/4 trillion excess spending spending in and above what we would have spent had we maintained that pre-covid trend that to me is probably juicing the economy krbz not only recession 10 years highly extraordinary, but also deficit to gdp ratios in mid to high 5, to me a lot of this success is government spending probably juicing the economy some point going to pay for it right now i say some is you artificial. >> steve? >> no. joe is spot-on here you know if we look last year, the two sectors that have dominated

employment growth healthcare, government spending why in the world is governments around country hiring more workers when running two trillion-dollar deficit in craziest things we want to see government employment falling, very substantially so we can at least get somewhere near, a balanced budget when you got government fastest growing employer i see that very negative thing, the other thing i quickly mention, is we're still, at what is it 62.7% i think was the -- was the labor force participation rate we need to get that up to 65 to 66% we've got three or four million people still missing from the labor force, we need to get people back in the workforce i think a lot is government is paying people still, not to work that is a big problem for o employers. >> incredible, alfredo where are the jobs right now what can you tell us? >> yeah, maria, you know our

big concern dwifrns between household and establishment household survey pick up you know where you have part-timer workers establishment survey double counts those jobs, so when you see those jobs growth in the establishment survey those are a lot of folks doing part time jobs above and beyond full-time jobs not reflective of the real economy of plain street america, i mean, people are hurting out there, k street wall street great a lot of folks are going into part-time jobs because they can't make ends meet. so this is a big concern, overall i hear this from folks, all the time when i walk down main street, talk to folks like i said patrons restaurant owners guys are still hurting that is definitely a concern, and just like what steve said as well, almost 50% jobs so far growth

rate has been basically in government or quasi government jobs ie healthcare. >> dan you are open to the idea that things could slow materially. >> i go back to how i started the interview beginning of the hour to watch energy if oil staidz -- stays up 90 dollars a barrel you are going to have a job too high going to seep into inflation, sap consumer spending combined with the fact that now with moves that we're seeing right now, you've gotten the-year treasury yields 50 basis points than 3.9% they started. consumer led economy services based that is what you have to watch so following this report, i thought even more, negative on consumer facing companies be more positive on

more enterprise companies be very cognizant of ho has potentially negative impact from higher input costs than things like oil. maria: focused on as well bob doll it has been a rough week for stocks, look. we began second party lower after this week down about 3% as an investor as somebody has got to come up with decisions, in terms of people's money what do you want to do? >> two-way stocks go up p/e goes up or e, earnings go up we talked about p/e, it is already 21 times that is pretty high, now you've got the fed probability of cutting its rating dwindling authorized see more p/e earnings consensus corporates 11% this year 13% next year i noticed first-quarter earnings revised down since first of the year from up over 6% to 3

1/2 so earnings either, i am cautious. >> you are cautious into the first-quarter earnings reporting beginning about a week are there areas you are want to avoid, going into this earnings season then? >> i want companies that have high earnings predictability persistence good free cash flow profiles dependent on multiple increases or economic growth i want to be careful, we own a lot of energy stocks expecting what we just said. >> great john lonski has been energy that has been where action is energy and tech. >> right, of course, the only problem is that energy is benefiting on equity market because of higher oil prices. and as oil prices climb higher so will the rate of inflation. just want to add one thing, joe and steve make a very good point in that the government has been primary driver of

economic growth in 2023, thus far, 2024. let's not forget last year real gdp grew by 2 1/2%, but that was well behind the better than 4% growth of government spending that doesn't absolute in concluded, on one hand federal reserve fighting inflation with higher interest rates, on the other hand, we have the federal government promoting inflation, with fiscal stimulus, this is a situation, that cannot persist indefinitely i think it breaks via, a -- much greater than anticipated jump by treasury bond yields. maria: treasured bond yields up this morning dan niles, the yields up to close to what, 2.4 -- 3.4%, you got the 10-year at up 7 1/2 basis points right now sitting at

4.38%, dan niles. >> yeah. i -- i mean i guess you got to remember -- i i don't care if what happens with stocks going forward. because the strategies that i have if i get right stocks that are going down, then that works out just fine, so, that is why we have a list of names that are both exposed positively to what is going on as well as negatively that is typically driven by competition. and so, that is what we're focused on here, so, to everybody's points, there is enforcing about this jobs' report makes i feel better about inflation in the future, et cetera. but does make you feel pretty good about the economy. and so, we needed to be even more careful about where you are allocating capital, and, you know, i am going to be more aggressive on stuff that i think is going to miss earnings coming up a couple weeks, and so, for me, i love

this jobs' report because it means, are going to matter even more than they did just you know two hours ago. so, that is terrific if you are a stockpicker, if investing based on headline this jobs' report isn't good a lot more volatility dispersion in stock prices. maria: go ahead. >> you know, we've been talking about the stock market, what are threats to stock market what is going to happen with interest rates i want to remind people that by far, by far the biggest risk to the stock market is what joe biden is proposing, on taxes if you did anything at all remotely, near what he wants to do double the capital gain increase minitax increase u.s. corporate tax rate from 21 to 28% talking about taxes, on investment that would go as high as 50%, and so, ways interesting, is you know came out with that poll a couple days ago that shows that trump

is in the lead i think four of five key battleground states, six out of seven. >> i worn if if market is pricing in a little bit, you know empliers too idea maybe a new president in november. >> we will seal does that work into your looking at markets the idea that we could see policy changes, next year? what do you think bob doll? >> yeah has to, the policy will differentials significant agree with all steve has said one concern, however, is massive tarris trump thinking about putting on not great for economy the rest of the tax issues clear-cut differential. >> wants china in check speaking of the administration, i just want to point out because i have this breaking news here i've got the? have tony bobulinski is suing dan goldman congressman goldman took tried to take him

to task who tony bobulinski testified, john lonski i want your thoughts on this, because, tony bobulinski says dan goldman was repeatedly lied about bobulinski saying that bobulinski has used a trump campaign lawyer to lie since october 2020, spreading russian disinformation is a trump campaign plant. bobulinski comes back, files a suit in district court for the district of columbia, suing congressman dan goldman i have the lawsuit in front of me your reaction, john lonski. >> well, i think, you know, this is helpful maybe for the trump campaign, i mean bobulinski is you know shedding light on the fact that the option opposition will do anything to make trump look bad to make biden look good in this case here, with the money bidens have been receiving, and why go ahead just sit back take it?

well why not fight back. i would say this is a good, strong move on the part of mr. bobulinski. >> steve any thoughts here? >> not on that one you will have to ask some others. >> we are talking about, the jobs numbers that have just been released 20 minutes ago, it was hotter than expected, 303,000 jobs add to the economy different scenario than household nonetheless after moving a bit of a market sell-off now back to the dow industrials up 110 points, and nasdaq and s&p 500 up in double digits, alfredo ortiz you said there is a real mixed showing when you look at main street versus wall street. you're saying that money is tight on main street. >> absolutely is maria i don't mean to sound like a broken record but when of you an

economy two-thirds consumer driven, you have folks that are taking out you know, two jobs one full-time a part time driving uber to make ends meet they have basically record credit card deaths no savings tapping into 401(k)s, the situation from consumer side on main street is very different, this is a big concern, i know we're talking a lot about, you know the earnings, season, stuff like that, i am sure going to have a great earnings season because, a lot of these companies were able to take price increases son summer customers can't take introoefrts any more restaurant owners small business owners can't take prices up any mayor, to keep up with inflation. because losing their consumers losing their customers, so it is a very different picture i know people feeling really good how market is doing, record territory but look 88 dollars let's say a barrel on oil, inflation is going

maria: joe la von rah ya, what is it going to take to get inflation down? i thought it was brilliant what the journal did today in terms of what $100 gets you versus a couple of years ago. we're seeing this inflation persist for food, energy, oil close to $8ing 6 a a barrel with right now. what will it take to get these numbers down? >> i don't think they're going to come down very much, maria, and this sort of gets to why economists and households, regular people, look at things differently. people rightly look at the price level, what is the cost for, to buy groceries and life's necessities. there are up significantly, roughly 20% in the last 3 years. and the fed, however, doesn't looking at the cumulative price level increase but, rather, the growth rate. i'm optimistic that inflation, despite what's happening a now, the growth rate of inflation will come down because i do see weakness coming in goods prices

as we're importing deflation from china and also rents. we had record amount of home supply last year in the multifamily sector. that's going to lower rent. so the growth rate inflation, i believe, will come down over the course of this year toward 2%, toward the fed's 2% target. but that does not if mean that all is great in u.s. household consumer land because prices are still, as i said, significantly above where they are. so there's this die dichotomy between what the fed and real people look at. maria: one of the issue, steve moore, is the fact that while the federal reserve is trying to get inflation down, it's facing a tsunami of constant spending. look, the president is right now as we speak doubling down on forgiving more student loan debt. >> yeah. i mean, just look at a his budget forecast for the next 10 years. i mean, he has basically trillion dollar increases in spending per year on and on, and that's about, as i calculate, about an $8-10 trillion increase

in the debt. and, look, that can't continue. it's sort of like party on, wayne. right now we're in a situation where we're borrowing, borrowing, borrowing, but at some point that a bubble is going to burst. and i always get asked, when's that going to happen? three weeks, three months or three years from now, there will be a price to pay. one other quick thing, when you were putting up the sectors of where the employment growths contradiction is low, business employment if was not -- we didn't have -- look, this is a good report, but we didn't have the growth in the places we most would like to see them. that is, people making things in america. maria: yeah, it's a great point. dan, that is why you are staying flexible in terms of, in terms offal rotating capital right now. -- allocating capital. go back to beginning of our conversation, dan niles, tell us the macro story and how you look at a it in terms of allocating capital today. >> i think, unfortunately,

you're in a day by day knife fight with the market. i think every piece of data you get now especially with a 10% gain just through q1, you've not to watch everything that comes in. i start with oil. but the one thing don't forget when you're investing in stocks is what do you know for certain. what i know for certain is this is going to be the most contentious presidential election that we've ever seen in our lifetimes and an exorbitant amount of money's going to be spent by both sides. for me, i look at the advertising space and go that's where the money's going to get spent. so for a name like meta where with they're going to benefit disproportionately from that as both candidates take to social media to try to get their message across, that's where i want to stay invested. so the things that i'm certain in, i know the olympics are coming as a well, and that's more spending. so that's kind of where i want to stay focused and stay away from the stuff that needs to have much lower oil prices to

work, because with i think that's going to be hard to find with an economy that's this strong. so that's kind of how i split my universe and say this is where i want to be extremely negative, and this is where now this is certainly going to happen and i want to be very positive. maria: and we talked about a stock the last october, impinge, and i know you're looking increasingly outside of the mega-cap tech. i'm going to you about that when we speak tonight on maria bartiromo's "wall street," about how you're looking outside of the mega caps. i appreciate you joining me tonight on maria bartiromo's "wall street with," dan. final word on this story. we've got a market that is still up on the heels of this hotter than expected numbers. guys, thank you so much. great conversation. joe, alfredo, steve, bob, dan, john, we appreciate your time. have a fantastic weekend, everybody. i will see you monday, varney and pane is up. stu, take it away -- "varney & company" is up