talking about. maybe what she's saying is true, we're at records. but, like, we solding five last year, that could be a record. it just gets me when they kind of spin the narrative to give them what they want and they stand there, and people who don't know the 1259s behind it or -- stats behind it would be likely to believe her. taylor: well said. an ev story that we're going to continue to monitor, particularly as we with approach earnings season and get stuff from tesla. i do want to get another quick check on your market. stocks a little higher, stronger than expected jobs report, the dow on pace to snap a 4-day losing streak. but, of course, we do have the dow, s&p 500, nasdaq all down for the week. dow on track now for its worst week since october but still, nonetheless, charles payne if is here, maybe he still the has time to turn it around. charles: oh, absolutely. we're never out of time. all right, thanks a lot. have a great weekend, guys. good afternoon, everyone. i'm charles payne. this is "making money.

" breaking right now, stocks are in rally mode if right now, the street cheering another jobs report beat. it was a good number but not as good as all the back slapping suggests. you know i'm riding this bull market, i've encouraged you to, but this is some important aspects of this report that aren't really so great that you need to know about. we'll break it down for you. also if the fed cannot deliver any rate cuts this year, what does that mean? ed yardeni, brian wesbury on deck. plus, over the last 48 hours in the middle east anything that could go wrong has gone wrong, and it's been difficult. it rocked our markets yesterday. rebecca heinrich is going to respond to what's happening there, what may be happening over the weekend. obviously, all of this is important to humanity and your portfolio. and my takeaway on the political follow hi of trying to put a happy face on illegal immigration. all that and so much more on "making money. ". ♪ ♪

charles: all right, so the jobs report came in better than expected. while that's no shocker, i'm sure you saw my commentary yesterday. listen, the fix is always in. i will say this, this one's a good number particularly for the stock market and corporate earnings. in fact, some say they felt the earth move under their feet when the number came out, hence the market's reaction. okay. i suspect that average hourly wages, this may be your key, right, to maybe the fed still cutting in june, down to 4.1% if 4.3%. in fact, if you annualize the monthly gain, it's up even less than that. so that gives the fed maybe if they still want to cut to start some point this year, it is unlikely that a june cut is going to happen. certainly as it becomes slimmer officially, this is what's happened immediately with the cme fed watch, the probability of rate staying the same moved up higher. still, wall street looking for a cut. so, okay, the party goes on and the funds keep flowing.

the annual flows right now for '24 are the highest since 2021. if you look at this chart, folks, it's among the highest ever. people are pouring money into the stock market rally, so the question now is, what could sink this thing? you know, during world war ii there was an advertising, the war advertising council launched a campaign that urged military members and all civilians to be very careful about discussing the u.s. war effort, right? the fear was the enemy would learn our secrets and our plans. so they came out with this phrase called loose lips might sink ships. it was on posters and even a few movies. soon it was whittled down to loose lips sink ships. my first guest has adjusted the phrase, and now it's loose fed lips may sink stocks. [laughter] joining me now, yardeni research president ed car denyny. ed, of course, i think you were referring to the to the comments neel kashkari made yesterday, today played a big role along with middle east headlines to a

pretty good swoon. it caught everyone's attention, but why was the reaction to -- so harsh? >> that's a good question. i think from a technical perspective there have been too many bulls and not enough bears. that was a good explanation for yesterday. doesn't work today, obviously. the market's had a big rebound here even though bullish sentiment remains extremely high. i think it's going to be simply a turbulent market for a little while here. the good news is the economy's doing well with. the bad news for some is that the fed's probably not going to lower interest rates at all this year. and then, of course, the geopolitical situation is just getting worse and worse. so putting it all together, i think it argues for some volatility, kind of a sideways move with some volatility. stuart: charles: so the street, of course, cheering this report, and, you know, or listen, trying to have its cake and eating it too. right now, you know, if you look, there's still most folks -- folks -- the betting is still on a june cut.

i'm thinking what if the fed starts to say not only we're not going to cut, we're to going the stay higher for longer, and even the notion of rate hikes reenter the picture? if we cannot keep saying it's a strong economy and we've got to cut rates. >> well, when everything talks about higher -- everybody talks about higher for longer, i look at a it and say normal for longer. we're back to normal interest rates where they should be. finish they're back to where they were before the great with financial crisis before the central banks became obsessed about getting inflation up to 2. remember re, charles, those good old days when they were worrying about deflation? well, that kept interest rates near zero and sometimes negative with quantitative easing between the great financial crisis and the great virus crisis. and now because of that inflation surge, central banks have to suddenly jump to raise interest rates. and guess what? they're back to where they were in a normal fashion if prior to the great financial crisis. so i have really no problems at

all with interest rates staying here. i think they're certainly fairer to investors who don't want to take a lot of risk, and i think they're going to do a better job of allocating capital in the capital a markets. stuart: charles: all right. we see bond yields up, and for years savers were not rewarded at all. some folks saying it's about time that a does change. so this volatility that we're going to have to become accustomed to, high beta names have led the way. the good news is they've been high beta to the upside. [laughter] i always a tell investors it's wonderful to own a stock that can go up 10% in one day, but you do realize that means it can go down 10% in one day. could this facilitate a quicker broadening of the rally as folks say, okay, i want to stay in, but not in these names that go up and down so much? >> yeah. some investors are going to get so whip sawed here by the volatility, they're going to have to get neck braces or move to some areas of the market that just, you know, allow you to get

rich slow instead of trying to get rich quick. in addition to that, i think that portfolio managers, individual investors would be wise to put a shock absorber in their portfolio for geopolitics, and that would be to overweight energy. charles: you were ahead of everyone in terms of coming into the year being bullish, very bullish. some firms have caught up, some individuals have caught up with you. seems like you're saying, okay, maybe sideways for a while. and you and i had this conversation last time you were on the show. you seem somewhat reluctant to go up higher. i think you're looking for some sort of a pause? >> yeah. i mean, my timing is still 5400 by year end. last week i thought we might if get there by tend of this week the way things were going straight up. but, yeah, i think we're due for a pause. and i'll tell you, the arithmetic is straightforward.

valuation multiples are not cheap at 21 times forward earnings. even if you take out the magnificent seven you have something like 18 which is a reasonable pe, but it's not cheap. so i think it would be much health writer for the bull market if it's -- healthier for the bull market if it's led by earnings. so i'm looking forward to the first quarter reports, and i think the earnings are going to be pretty good, and i'd like to see that the stocks that move are the ones based on the fundamentals. and the ones that have some earnings disappointments, they get hurt as a result. i think on balance it's a stock picker's a market here for a while. charles: yeah. those are the ones that we like best, i think. ed, thank you so much. have a great weekend. >> thank you. you too. charles: my next guest remains constructive on this market but notes there are some shifts that everyone should be aware of. i want to bring in crossmark global investment's chief market separatist victoria fernandez. the street's happy with the report, and i'll tick up what i

was asking -- pick up what i was asking ed, how long can we have our cake eat it too? the economy's strong, earnings are going to be strong, but the fed should be cutting rates at the same time. obviously, wall street loves accommodation. we love -- listen, no one loves free money more than corporate america and wall street. >> exactly. look, we talked it's -- last year, and i was saying how do we pit fit the pieces of the puzzle together. and here we are six months later, and we're still trying to figure out how we're going to make that work. i do think ed's right we're going to have a lot of focus on earnings, but i think it could be less optimistic than what many people anticipate. earning was driven by the mag 7 last year. you take them out of the equation, you actually had negative operating everything ps last year, and they're set to really do the biggest component this quarter as well. i hope we see a broadening out and see some of the other sectors -- health care, financials, energy -- really take the lead in the second half of this year. charles: you know what's interesting about that, if you

look at consensus right now, the second and third quarter, to your point, are going to be sort of, you know, the mag 7's not delivering and the other 499 3 stocks aren't delivering -- 493. fourth quarter the 493 are supposed to have very strong numbers. but that's a long time between now and then, right? i mean, for investors, right, what happens between now and then when the market's grappling for a narrative? >> i'm actually kind of surprised to hear ed say he thought we were going to go sideways for a while. charles: yeah, yeah. [laughter] >> i thought, wow, he's actually on the same page as a me, and i like to hear that because i do think we're going to have a lot of churning in the market as it makes its transition from having tech lead to some of the other elements. that's why we've always said to our clients we need to have that diversification, be in different parts of the market. some of the pullbacks, which is what i think happened today after the pullback we had yesterday, the first pullback over 2% since october. i think you had some people jumping in maybe out of money

markets. charles: momentum. that's been the key. momentum is rocked, but you're saying it's fading. >> it is the starting to fade. the momentum factor, right, when you're looking at factors within the stock market, you talked about high beta stocks, we're going to see low beta start to lead a little bit. have some of that momentum come back a little bit because you probably will have some of the tailwinds that have led the consumer that's really been the foundation of this market. some of that's going to start to fade away whether it's savings, whether it's tighter lending conditions so we don't have as many loans out there growing, things like that. i think we'll see some pullbacks here. charles: so we're going to talk about investing themes that you're focused on. you like cigna. >> i do. and i know many people are probably panicking when they hear health care after what we saw this week, but remember, cigna if's a little bit of a different element. it's the actually flat for the week because they divested some of that medicare component. we like that balance sheet. we like that return on equity of about 30, 35 if %. so, yes -- 35.

charles: commodities -- [inaudible] >> i think you can do a commodity play a little bit. we think you could see some cap-, and with the chips act and inflation -- deere might be a good way to play that. you get a dividend, an almost 50% return on energy. charles: energy feels like you're getting a little long in the tooth short term. outside of the geopolitical factors which could move it higher. >> so i'm glad you said that, and i didn't want tell you to say that. [laughter] we talk so much about positioning, right? positioning in tech being too much and what we're seeing in the market as a whole. long positioning in energy is not there yet. so there is still some room to go. and energy, even though prices have gone up, maybe wait for a little bit of a pullback and then go into a name like marathon or phillips 66. charles: what i love about you and bob is you've always said ising hey, you do have to be in this market. >> you got to be in the market. charles: that's the most

important thing right now. listen, days like today, yesterday, these extremely roll till days, people have to remember that -- volatile. i'm always a glad particularly when you come in studio. >> me too. thanks for having me. charles: if you see the eclipse, wear the glasses. >> that's right. i got 'em. charles: i bet my granddaughter i didn't have to do it, but everyone told me i'm stupid. all right, folks, geopolitical tensions certainly intensifying. there's developments that are happening and that could happen over the weekend that could impact, well, we know it will impact world peace, maybe your purchase all of it's so create critically important, so we asked rebeccah heinrichs to join us. she will next. ♪ ♪ ♪ that includes having a smile you feel good about.

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she shoots from here? that's kinda my thing. get the real deal with xfinity internet today, and get fast speeds and a reliable connection to all your devices in the home —even when everyone is online. charles: so the last 48 hours have been really hell in the middle east, and it seems like almost anything that could go wrong has including the accidental death of aid workers from an israeli strike. israel also coordinating a strike against iran, and there was a different strike as well that no one really knows where it came from within that country, and then yesterday president biden doing his own saber rattling, suggesting the united states could change its policies if israel does not commit to a ceasefire. now, that news sent the stock market reeling. i want to bring in hudson institute senior fellow rebecca hine riggs are. rebecca, i must begin with with

the seven world kitchen workers who were accidentally killed. that seemed to be the last straw for the biden administration. what was interesting was israel did a probe, and and they did issue a statement saying there were serious violations of rules. listen, there was a lot of talk that israel was incapable of making such an assessment trying to sweep this under the rug are. so or what are your thoughts just on that alone? because that seemed to be the haas piece of in that has -- last piece of in that has elevated it even more. >> well, at the same time, john kirby, of course, the spokesperson for the white house, also said that as the state department has been examining and watching the way israel has conducted this war, it has not found a single violation of international law in the way israel has conducted itself. so it is remarkable to me that the administration has chosen what is a clear tragedy, israel admits it's a tragedy, admits there were mistakes surrounding it, but they did not, the israelis certainly did not intentionally harm these aid workers. it really is a tragedy. and it's remarkable, charles,

that there hasn't been more accidents like this given the fact that hamas is actually trying to increase and maximize civilian are harm in order the change global opinion to squeeze the israelis to stop this war against hamas. charles: right. and, in fact, let's be honest. i mean, from the very beginning, hamas' only goal was to sway political opinion even if it came at the expense of a lot of innocent civilians being killed. so israel has now announced they're going to open up their checkpoints to facilitate humanitarian deliveries9 could this be sort of a sign that maybe we'll move toward a ceasefire sooner rather than later? >> well, i mean, first of all, i would just say it's a shame. the only friend israel typically has that is reliable in the world is the united states of america. and so if the united states goes weak-kneed against israel, we are in a world of hurt. israel has got to do what is fess to take out hamas and its ability to conduct another horrible attack like we saw on october 7th. so i certainly hope that the

administration is using unfortunate rhetoric but it won't actually change its policy that would, in fact, allow israel -- charles: that would be with, that would be so amazing, it really would. it would boggle the mind, particularly in the most volatile area in the world. in fact, yesterday again when these headlines hit, the stock market collapsed. oil prices spiked, and now everyone's sort of bracing for iran to commit some sort of attack possibly if over the weekend. >> well, that's because israel does not have the kind of patience that u.s. officials seem to have with iranian proxies continuing to attack israeli targets and also, of course, commercial shipping, u.s. and allies throughout the red sea. of course, we've actually had to move if all commercial shipping around the red sea. and because of iranian proxies in the region trying to intimidate and harm u.s. and ally forces because of our support for israel. but israel has to defend itself. it's a nation of, remember, the

size of new jersey surrounded by very, very dangerous actors that want to e will eliminate it. israel's going to do what it needs to. iran needs to understand that the patience for israel is going to be wearing thin, and iran should stand down. it should stop funding an army, these terrorist proxies. and by the way, charles, this is important. we're talking about global changes in the world and how that can affect the markets. it's so interesting to me that these iranian proxies in the red sea have verbally said they're not going to attack russian and chinese-flagged ships, so they're aligning with adversaries, and that affects the global markets as well. charles carls lull absolutely. less than a minute. you mentioned china. secretary yellen is in china. i should say treasury secretary yellen, and she's pressing them on this overproduction, flooding the world to gain market share. you know, listen, it's so crazy because they've been doing this for a long time, but i also think it's somewhat ironic considering the biden administration is doing the same thing with evs, using cafe

standards to kill gasoline cars. but i'm curious, this expanded role of the treasury secretary, is she the de facto secretary of state as well? >> it's so interesting that she's the one that leads for this administering's china policy, and she is a china dove. and for her to try to convince the chinese to go against their own interests just shows how completely backwards this administration is on china point china wants the -- point china wants to hurt the united states, so it's not going to change its policies so that everybody can have a better, fairer show and live more harmoniously. they want us to be on our back foot x. if so china's not going to change, it's very, very low labor costs and heavy subsidies in areas like electric vehicles because that's how they can strongarm and hurt the united states. charles: yeah. and they are going to hi scrapping this exv policy and flood us with cheap e e verys out of mexico, no matter what they say. rebeccah, thanks so much. i appreciate it. >> thank you. charles: all right, folks, we're

flubbing out what's more than -- flushing out whats' more than just the headlines with the jobs market. we've got two of the best, joni biley and brian wesbury burr are next. ♪ working 9 to 5, what a way to make a living. ♪ barely getting by, it's all taking and no giving. ♪ they just use your mind, they never give you credit. ♪ it's enough and more about discovering magic. rich is being able to keep your loved ones close. and also send them away. rich is living life your way. and having someone who can help you get there. the key to being rich is knowing what counts.

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charles: all right, folks, a lot of headlines going around about this jobs report. remember, what you're probably hearing is just one small element, it's a 25-page report. lucky for us, we've got someone who knows all about this, let's bring in chief work force analyst joanie biley. joni, i want to start with the parts of the report that are sort of, in my mind, worrisome, problematic, right? full-time work, the lack of full-time work, the continued swoon in temp workers, and how the hell do we have zero manufacturing jobs? you're supposed to be in a manufacturing renaissance, and we've got a goose egg. >> yeah. we've been talking about this for years like it's coming back, and it's the not back yet. i'm so glad you're asking me about this, charles, because i'm looking at all the headlines, and and that's just what it is. everyone sees that headline number of 303,000 and 3.8% unemployment, but that really isn't a very good picture of what's going on. because, to your point,

full-time workers actually declined. part-time workers is what was actually growing. manufacturing was a zero, to your point, a big goose egg. you know, manufacturing is supposed to be that rep sans. the good -- renaissance. the good thing is we are seeing construction jobs come back, and we can tell that we are building manufacturing plants all across the country. so i do believe those jobs will come back in the future, but it's going to take some time. charles: right. the ism if manufacturing data still in contraction on the employment side, but it got much better. and to your point, it had a lot of people thinking maybe we go from contraction to increasing, but it didn't happen. you and i have also talked a lot about how much government money, government spending influences this report, particularly over the last year. now, we know it's local and state, but it's a lot. 7. 1,000 jobs, a lot -- 71,000 jobs, a lot of the health care jobs part of that as well. how long do you think, i mean, the local governments can keep funding these kind of jobs? >> right.

if you look at the last two job, most of the growth has come from government, health care and leisure and hospitality. charles: that's today's report, the top three. >> exactly. so we're not seeing the growth come from the professional, business service sector. we're not seeing, as we're talking about, manufacturing, you know? many other sectors have had some modest growth. i can tell you that temporary help sector that we talk about because it's the industry that i come from, it's really struggled for two years. we have had declines every single month. and you know that employers always let their temporary workers go first. charles: right. >> so if you're looking at two years of declines in that sector, certainly are it may point to that, yes, we've had a little bit of a soft landing, but we need to see that sector start to come back. charles: right. >> we see more optimism that employers are hiring can if adding -- charles: where are we on the gig economy?

the gig workers? >> well, i think you're seeing that a lot in the part-time numbers. so part-time numbers are coming up. charles: right. >> the other thing that you see is we're seeing an increase in people having multiple part-time jobs. ask and so people are participating in the gig economy, and i think there's more gig opportunities out there. and people need to do it to make ends meet. with inflation, they're looking for more work. so that's why i think you're seeing more part-time work, more gig work, more multiple jobs. if you look at, though, the last 12 months, full-time employment is down by actually over a million jobs. charles: that's amazing. that is absolutely amazing. >> again, to my point -- charles: i've got 30 seconds or, let me squeeze this in because average hourly wages were down year-over-year from the prior month. the monthly number, if you extrapolate it on an annualized basis, was really low. you just mentioned inflation. it's one thing to say is, okay,

300,000 jobs, 230,000 private sector, but are the wages -- it feels like the wage gains that were coming up are starting to fade now. >> yeah. we definitely have seen -- wages seem like they're flattening. and, you know, we work with thousands the of employers across the board, and you can see that we're getting more wage pressure. you know, a year ago they still were increasing wages, and they knew they had to be more competitive. i think we're going to see it flatten. i don't think we'll see declines, it'll probably hold steady. charles: joanie, always great seeing you. economists now saying that because of migration, the labor pool is high enough for employers not to tap existing work pool, right? so essentially what they're saying is that the economy gets large and now this would allow for what they call a faster neutral rate. now this, folks, is the pace of hiring before the labor force is tight because a tight the labor force theoretically is the kind of thing that jolts inflation, makes it go higher. i want to get some thoughts from

first the u.s. adviser chief economist brian wesbury. brian, this notion that there's a new neutral rate and so, therefore, we've got greater job growth and everything that a comes along with it but no inflationary pressure. >> right. [laughter] you know, i mean, charles, this all comes from the fact that we have two survey ises of employment. surveys of employment. one, we go to institutions. we call that the non-farm payroll report. so today that was up 303,000. but we also knock on doors. we actually go ask people, are you working or not. and these two surveys have massively diverged. they're not always a together. but in the last couple of years, they have massively diverged, and this is where people are looking at immigration. that affects everything else. i look at a lot of this employment report today, you just discussed it really well, it -- i keep thinking economic

data today, i'm going to, i hope e get this right. it's an enigma wrapped in a mystery -- [laughter] a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. charles: right. >> and so everybody is trying to figure out how the heck are we still growing the economy even though the money supply is down and we've stopped paying people not to work? where's it coming from? and it could be very well immigration, and it could be a.i. and ozempic. i mean, there are some people who think these weight loss drugs are going to add 1-2% to gdp. it could be starlink9 and the new communications technology -- charles: right, right. >> it could be all of this together, it could lead to real growth. i keep thinking that something has to break because we never really paid a price for locking down. we just pumped morphine in, and now that morphine is wearing

off. charles: right. and,s you know, the morphine, it goes through our circulatory system. it goes from one area to another, but it's still in the system, to your point. but this brings me to something i know that you've talked about, the shift from these neo- keynesian model to a state-run capitalism. >> right. charles: this is a central issue on the ballot no matter what anybody talks about. it's part of the immigration and economy arguments. should we embrace a nation of big, giant government that has state-run capitalism, i'll use air quotes, or the old, you know, laissez-faire if kind of thing because, you know, the longer this lingers, even folks like you are saying -- sounds like you're saying maybe it's working. >> yeah. well, what i'm saying is we're getting away with it right now. you know, just in the last couple of days we've heard from a big -- i'm not, i'm not telling you to buy or sell intel, i'm just going to talk about them. they have received billions of dollars through the chips act to

build semiconductor plants. and yet in the building of semiconductor plants, they're losing billions of dollars. so this -- and if you look at all the money that the state has put into the government into evs, everybody is getting out of the business with. nobody wants to buy them anymore. that's a little bit of an exaggeration. but the point i'm getting to here is that it doesn't work. nowhere in the world have we had a state-run economy that has worked over a long period of time. charles: right. >> and so that, it worries me. i think we're getting away with it, and people think it works, but it doesn't. charles: all right. are less than 30 seconds because the producer's in my ear. [laughter] with all that said, does this rally, this stock market rally, is it over its skis? >> yeah, i think it is, charles. and to, to not make your producers mad -- [laughter] i'll tell you quickly if you use interest rates and profits, i'm

looking at this from 30,000 feet, the market looks overvalued by about 20%. right now. does it mean it'll go down -- doesn't mean if it'll who go down, but it's overvalued for the first time in 14 or 15 years. charles: all right. brian, always great to see you. thank you so much, my friend. >> great, charles. cha. charles: i'm going to be hosting unbreakable investor, i call it the quiz show decision, april 24th at 2 p.m. it's going to be a blast. i'm telling you, last two were standing room only, people love it. you're going to love it. join me here in studio, in person, new york city. you'll be able to ask questions directly, and we're going to have so much fun. wait til you see the surprises. go to eventbrite.com, search for charles payne. get your freeway ticket right now, and i'll see you in a couple of weeks. all right, my next guest isn't changing his stance on a june rate cut despite today's report. phil cap rely joins us with thoughts there and where you should be informed, next. ♪ -- invested.

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a long way to go, mostly in valuation expansion that a we've seen so far, really this rally's positioned well because don't forget there's still the technical aspect and, more importantly, fundamentals. portfolio manager if phil caperelli joining me now. i've got to get your thoughts on jobs report. did you go back and sharpen your pencil a little bit after this number? >> yeah. so, charles, three or six months ago if we'd have seen a 303, we would have gone, oh, my goodnes- charles: right. >> looking under the hood though, the participation rate was something that caught our attention. it went from 62.5 to -- [inaudible] which means more people coming in which means that 303 of demand is getting met by supply9 and the wage number, that wage number, 4.1 year over year, is the hoe of the cycle which the fed was worried about in march of 2022, is there going to be a wage price spiral. charles: right. by the way, i'm glad you brought up participation pause with i've listened to jay powell in

speeches, and i feel like this is one of the things he looks at more than anything else because this really is what -- if people are looking for work with as the pendulum swings back to the employer, the employer can hire, but he or she doesn't have to worry about spending more money, which is what the fed wants. jay powell wants a soft landing, he wants it bad, worse than anything else. >> legacy is very important, yeah. charles: particularly after blowing the transitory thing. i think investors know this, that the fed will be very reluctant to stay higher for longer. so for now, you're still at a june rate cut. >> yeah, we're still in the june rate cut camp, charles. i don't think the economy necessarily needs a rate cut. the economy is interest rate insensitive. a 25 point rate cut isn't going to do anything to the economy. i think what it does though is just allows them some breathing room to say, or you know what? 5.5% is way, way into restrictive territory, let's get a little bit closer to home. they're also, charles, in our opinion, not getting anywhere

near 2.5 -- charles: right. >> -- which is where they stopped the last time with this neutral rate. so i think that's going to come up and they're going to be slow, careful and methodical -- charles: next week with disinflation data, it's so important. hover lori logan, the dallas fed president, earlier today saying maybe things aren't as restrictive as they think. you like the fundamentals and technicals here. >> yeah. so when it comes down to it, charles, the market hates uncertainty. charles: right. >> and all of the march madness this year was on the basketball court, not necessarily in the market, which is a really nice change from prior marchs. [laughter] and i think the no recession story for us remains intact with. but that's the valuation story. what i think is really important is the last fed if meeting, charles. they upgraded 2024 growth from 1.4, below trend, to 2.11, above trend, and i think that's the story going forward. can nominal growth that is this strong with inflation and real

growth support earnings, and that's with where i think that the balance of the rally is going to come from. charles: so i'm looking at your investment where you want people to be right now, equities -- >> yeah. charles: -- high-yield credit, eafe. >> yep. charles: what i thought was really intriguing here is no cash. >> yeah. charles: is this, i mean, that's amazing. so this is sort of like, you know, this is conviction. no cash at all a, you're just -- >> fully invested. charles: fully invested, don't miss this rally. >> charles, as much as that 5.5% jumps off the page jers us have where we were in prior cycles, last year was the best cash return in 02 years and it was the second worst performing asset class second only to commodities. ignoring reinvestment risk, there's still opportunity costs of staying in an instrument that's only going to get you 5.5 over the next 12 months. i think that's really important. there's also -- [inaudible] you have a 7% deficit and a $7

trillion balance sheet. those two things are still awash with lick by did -- liquidity. charles: yeah. and, you know, we're all waiting for that $6.5 trillion starting to cascade back into something. and to your point, a lot of folks are going to look, this is a no-brainer. now everyone's scratching their head like, golly. >> and that $6 trillion, okay, do you think the fed's going to be tightening 75 basis points four meetings in a row? if that's what that a means. charles: right. >> and that is such a low probability. as a long as a it's less easing and not more tightening, the market's going to be fine. charles: i love that. no cash, folks. get in there, make some money. all right, appreciate it. we've been talking about government jobs all morning long, and what we haven't really talked about from a jobs perspective though is the small employer, right? if small businesses. but they're heroes with us. carol roth, you know she's got everyone's back when it comes to small businesses, and she knows what's going op. she'll fill us in next.

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charles: all right, so we got that government jobs report this morning. it came in right above the whisper number. that whisper number was higher because the adp number came in higher. listen, you know, we talk about the government number, the adp if number, but what we need to really with talking about -- be talking about is the greatest part of our economy, and that's a small businesses. take a look at this. they also had a number. the key that stood out there, hiring plans. they continue to decline. small businesses looking to create jobs at a level not this low since may of 2020. this is something my next guest has been researching and talking about and protecting for a long time, the author of "you will own nothing," carol roth. carol, i just gotta get your initial thoughts just on the government's jobs report today. >> yeah. it's sort of like the used sports car that you go to buy. it looks really pretty and shiny

on the outside, charles, and then you take a peek if under the hood and go, eh, maybe this one isn't so great. first of all, i'm having a lot of problems with the data in general. we've seen so many large scale revisions from this administration, a huge divergence between the establishment survey and the household survey, so it's kind of hard to digest all of that. and if you are data-dependent, then you're starting to look at things like the uptick in multiple jobs holders. the one that really stands out to me is that shift between full-time jobs and part-time jobs. you cannot have people losing full-time jobs and gaining part-time jobs and have that be a good overall trend. so from a fed's perspective, if they're data-dependent, it really depends on which set of data they're looking at. charles: yeah. in the meantime, the nf if ib report was disheartening, to say the least. what are small business owners telling you about the jobs market? >> yeah. so you see nfib, alignable also

has some pretty good research. i think the biggest issues for small business owners is cost. they're having a ton, a really difficult time paying hair remember, and on top of that, there's lay brother, supplies, food and the like -- labor. if you think about california where we're seeing this minimum wage increase in fast food to $20 an hour, even if your small business isn't a franchise and you're not directly impacted, you are downstream impacted, charles, because it's competition, right? if it's somebody with no skills over here can get $20 an hour. it makes it harder for you. so i think this is sort of bleeding out into this overall cost issue. it's really becoming the number one everybody i shoo in terms of small businesses -- issue in terms of small businesses and their ability to hire right now. charles: one of the number one issues is this notion of the rich not paying their fair share. you put out great information on this, we don't have time to go

through it all. i'll tell people to check you out in on twitter. just kind of give us the gist of it, because it's very frustrating to hear over and over again what, essentially, is a lie. >> yeah. well, the reason i'm concerned about this lie is that i'm worried that we are going to get a wealth tax for the middle and and working class, and it's going to come in through people agreeing that you can get one on the billionaires. just like the $600 venmo transactions were not for the billionaires and the 80,000 irs agents were not for the billionaires, they don't want a wealth tax just for the billionaires, they want it for everyone. so when you have misinformation saying the rich don't pay their fair share -- which, by the way, originated from the biden white house, check out my twitter stream for all of the full breakdown of this, but you really have to understand that's not the case and we can't have that if you want to preserve the opportunity for the middle class. charles: you put out some great things. carol, thank you very much, appreciate it. >> appreciate you. charles: all right, folks. i want to pick up before we go

on this talk of the really great, how great illegal immigration has been for the job market, even saying that it has saved the nation from going into a recession. you know, it's been seeping into our conversations with labor economists for a few months now, and i think a lot of it's planned from a political point of view. it's an attempt to ease the worries about people entering our nation if illegally. i mean, it's the number one election are issue this year, and very powerful folks want the current president to be reelected. but trying to put a happy face on illegal immigration will be challenging. now, there's four problems at least. one, of course, workers are being replaced, american workers are being replaceed9. some think it's part of the so-called great replacement theory, but even if you're apolitical, it comes down to expense, right? you push i out someone who's going to cost you more. come on, i'd love to see president biden try to tell native-born folks that lost their jobs or can't get the wages they need to keep up with inflation that this trend is really a good thing. obviously, for employers it could be a dream come true for

some. workers without papers do the job for less and, from what i've seen, they do a really great job and never complain. but what happens when the economy falters? these workers are often the first fired, and many cannot collect unemployment because they're not citizens. and so, by the way, that's one of the reasons our unemployment number has been muted, right? we awe this in europe. -- saw this in europe. remember over the haas couple of decades the throngs of illegal immigrants were rushing in. the economists said, hey, it's going to help the economy. eventually though it helps to pro-- helped to propel the british citizens who voted for brexit, and even countries like germany, sand a knave january companies cracking down bigtime. the oh insidious part of this, and i talked about it a couple of times on this show, why are we training americans with vocational skill? why can't we train americans to be carpenters? so many immigrants have -- and, listen, they're doing these jobs, right? any construction site in new york and new jersey, you're going to see it. why aren't we training americans

for this? why aren't we training americans with technology education? this is the fourth industrial revolution. america was founded on immigration, folks, and it will always be an important part of our ethos, right? we are proud of this. no one is against immigration. but encouraging illegal immigration, i don't think, will ever be part of our ethos. and this was pretty transparent if attempt to say somehow it saved the country, i think it's misguided and very, very dangerous. with that, the market had a pretty good week going into the weekend, but it was a challenging week. and what i think we're going to see, to ed yardeni's point earlier, a for volatile market. you won't be able to throw a dart at seven stocks and make money anymore. that means you're to going to have to watch this though and also our friend, liz claman. liz: yeah. because you and i bring in the top voices. yardeni is a huge name. thank you very much, charles. breaking news, okay, folks, you look at the ticker beneath me and, of course, the slides here on the screen