i think that is a very real possibility in 2025. and i know that's not on the dot plots, i know that's not priced into the markets, but i think it's something people need to be prepared for because, again, history is telling us that there is going to be a second wave of inflation. charles: yeah. you know what? fed's going to have a real tricky job trying to articulate that. even if that hints their radar, telling us there's going to be three rate cuts to pivoting, but that's the been the biggest fear of this market for folks that have been around fortune a long time because it wasn't supposed to be this way. maybe they'll be arthur burns. great stuff. thank you very much, really appreciate it. all right, folks, it was a really craitz i city day on the market i think this last hour's going to be even crazier. here's liz. liz: do you think the dow's going to go lower here? charles: i think so. liz: you think so? we'll be watching it, in fact as we kick off the a final hour of trade, folks, what we're going to do every step of the way is track not just the markets. you can see the dow down 571,

but bond yields, the vix, oil, gold, bitcoin. everything that's gyrate aing in this selloff. let's start with stocks. as you see, the dow is falling. low of the session is a loss of 579 points, so we are heading back down to that point. we've got the s&p down 64. 1.25% ding there. and the nasdaq down 1% if or 192 points. the index that's really getting pummeled though is the russell 2000. biggest percentage loser, down a full 3% right now. pretty much at a session lows. that is in part because small and mid if cap companies tend to be more sensitive to borrowing rates. worst day democrat russell since february 13th. we are continuing to watch all of this. it's also on the lower ticker. and, you know what? if the 10-year treasury yield is any indication, those interest rates that many small and mid caps depend on going lore so that they can borrow more, those interest rites are rising. look at the 10-year yield.

yesterday it closed at 4.36%, right now it is the up 19 basis points to 4.555%. benchmark topping 4.5% for the first time since november. the trigger? well, all a ofs this is moving after the march consumer inflation report that that we flagged you about exactly at this time yesterday. core inflation that excludes often volatile food and energy prices came in hotter than expected for the third month in a row. prices consumers paid stayed stuck at .4%. year-over-year they rose at a 3.8% pace? the expectation was lore than that, 3-- lower than that, 3.7%. so inflation is stuck at the moment. so what did the dow do? look at the intraday picture. it cratered right at the open, and right now it's not doing much better here. remember yesterday with, investors were in a holding pattern waiting for that cpi print. they're not exactly landing the plane on the blue chips.

to the dow heat map, you can see right now just about three names in the green. everything else is red. we've got interest rate-sensitive names from home depot -- again, home improvement, people are a little anxious here and that means mortgage rates may move higher after what we saw. intel down 3.33%, goldman sachs -- all the financials are in the red, down 2.7% followed by boeing, nike and dow inc. same chart pattern, two days for the s&p, yesterday it closed higher by just 7 points after being been both up and down. much higher and lower during the session. to the nasdaq, a bunch of chip-related names are are dragging down the nasdaq 100. the nasdaq at the moment down 200 points. 1.25% and falling. if look at some of these names. global foundries, mxpi semiconductor -- nxpi. global foundlies down nearly 5% fold by nxp and you can see the rest, microchip, on semi and

marvell technology. not every name is dropping, nvidia providing a rare slice of green and holding on to it right now as we kick off the final hour of trade. it is up 11 points or 1.33%. morgan stanley upgraded its price target on the a.i. chip leader from $795 a share to $1,000 a share. we're at $865 and change right now. this just a day after a nvidia entered correction territory which is typically a decline of 10% or more the from its recent high. right now we've got nvidia, as i said, still holding in the green. but as a hold, the tech sector joins nearly every major sector diving into the red are. energy is the one area that has just slightly popped into the green. the worst sector by a long shot, it is the real estate. this is precisely the kind of day we need to hear from billionaire investor marc lasry. he has made much of his fortune

capitalizing on days like this. where does he see the markets and what effect will higher rates have on the floundering health of the commercial real estate market? marc lasry coming up. not a lot of places to hide right now, but west texas intermediate with, that's one of them. crude oil up 1.25%. gold is down two-thirds of a percent -- let's just get to the floor show. joining me now from the cboe, prosper trading economy ceo scott bauer and the conference board chief economist, dana peterson. scott, i mean, it looks like the fed's hands are handcuffed just a bit more tightly now. we got the fed minutes too where they were very concerned that inflation hasn't a been slayed. what kind of flows did you start to see and are you seeing in this final hour. >> you know, there's not a lot of fear, i have to be honest with you, even with the s&p down 70 point and, yes, the vix is up a lot. there's not a lot of fear, liz. i say that because there's been a lot of activity in the s&p pit behind me here with some call

buying, some big resting orders that have been out there for a few days, maybe even a week or so waiting for the s&ps to sell off. likewise in the vix, even though over the last month there's been a lot of upside call buying, just today there's been a lot of call selling. so that could be either people getting i out of those positions that have, you know, ridden it a little bit higher or trying to take advantage of some of this extended volatility the that we're seeing now. so i would tell you at least for right now not a lot of fear. traders that i'm talking to behind me here think that the ppi print might if actually come in okay tomorrow. so not really poised for another big drop like this. liz: okay. ppi, of course, producer price index. this is prices at the whole steal level are, it's that sort of counterpart to cpi or at least a cousin of it. dana, let's get you into the conversation and specifically we look at this mechanism, the trading mechanism that the markets use for guessing where

interest rates might be cut, at least what meeting of the federal reserve. this is -- i mean, june, yesterday, the expectation for a rate cut in june yesterday was 58. look at it now. 17% in the wake of this cpi. july was 69, now it's down to 41. what does that felt you, if anything? >> well -- tell you, if anything? >> markets are concerned about inflation prints coming in hot. this is, like, the third month we've seen prints much higher than what's been expected, and when we look at the details, it's the usual suspects. it's housing. it's insurance costs. t food, it's energy. also we saw medicare. and these things, some of them the fed really doesn't have a lot of control over. ask and so this suggests that maybe the fed will push back expectations for cuts this year from 75 basis points to something less. liz: yeah. shelter up 5.7% year-over-year. that plus energy and and food that had risen, obviously, and

auto insurance, insurance, that whole sector is moving higher which offset or blanked out the drop in prices for things like used cars, right? >> yes. liz: okay. so everybody, as you see on the screen, is paying more for certain things. that would be food at home, energy, home insurance, car insurance, candy and i chewing gum up 4.4%. [laughter] oh, my goodness. stop the presses. scott, the normal pattern that we would see at this point in volatility is somewhere where it's further out a little higher. right now vix is up 9%. you say that's not a lot of fear. why? >> no, it's really not because, liz, we're sitting right around 16. from a mathematical calculation, if you look at a vix at 16, that equates to the s&ps moving 1% a day. we're kind of right there. i know we're more than that today, but a 1% move in the s&ps, that's pretty average. liz: okay. >> that's pretty normal normal -- normal.

so not a lot of fear. vix did dip into a little bit of backward-ation meaning that the current vix futures or the spot vix actually traded higher than a little bit of the vix futures going out a month or two. when that happens, that does, that does, you know, kind of front-run a little bit of fear that's out there. but it's certainly not anything like what we saw last fall. liz: yeah. and when you look at the petals, because gold has been on an incredible run, scott, copper, copper has skyrocketed. that, of course, is an industrial play. where do you see those names going? because it's commodities that have spiked inflation in many regards. >> not only have they spikedded inflation, but they've spiked in volatility. that's the concern i have. not so much in the equities here, but if you look at the metals, gold, silver and copper, copper especially, the volatility in those names, they're off the charts. they're at multiyear highs. that tells me there's a lot of fear, there's a lot of fomo out

there. i'm a contrarian. so, you know, as a trader, i like to look at those kind of data points. and typically will take the opposite direction. so looking at that, i think the commodity run that we've had -- i'm not saying we're going to get a big pullback, i think it's time for a pause. copper is at the top of my list because a lot of what a we have seen in this run in copper has been due to, you know, some economic optimism coming out of china. i think we've seen that story before. i don't believe i don't believe it here, and i think we're going to stall a little bit. liz: okay. dana, give me the silver lining perspective here. the economy is strong, is it not? or counter that. you tell me. >> sure. there's certainly a number of as aspects of the economy that are strong. most people are working, the unemployment rate's low, but we still have elevated wages, and that's a function of labor shooterrages, and that's a problem.. -- shortage aings. we're seeing those wages filter down into consumer prices. again, something the fed doesn't have a lot of control over

because companies are not let eking people go. their concerned about labor shortages, about having the right types of workers who are highly skilled, so they're holding on to people. and that's kind of messing up the calculus of what would normally of happen after the fed hikes rates by 525 basis points. liz: guys, the fed minutes from the most recent federal reserve meeting basically say participants, meaning the voters, noted disinflation process was continuing on a pathogenly expected but -- path generally expected but somewhat uneven. so we're not sure what's going to happen. will the fed have to pivot? it's certainly looking like that if you judge the fed funds futures. dana, scott, thank you so much. even health care, which tends to hold up during broader market selloffs, is suffering right now. health care, pharma, biotech etfs, big baskets of these names, are all down anywhere from 1 to nearly 2%. they're all laid up in bed if after catching the market's cold. but that doesn't mean a major

breakthrough in the diagnosis of sepsis. the body's extreme and often deadly reaction to an infection. that doesn't mean that it can't move the needle soon for one name. the f if da just giving the green light to the first a.i.-driven tool to diagnose sepsis, one of the leading causes of death in u.s. hospitals. the ceo behind the biotech, behind that tool, per know sis, and he has some breaking news regarding a tie-up with a big drugmaker. that is next. the dow down 510 points. we're continuing right back. ♪ muck -- coming right back. ♪ ♪

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hi, i'm jason and i've lost 202 pounds on golo. so the first time i ever seen a golo advertisement, i said, "yeah, whatever. there's no way this works like this." and threw it to the side. a couple weeks later, i seen it again after getting not so pleasant news from my physician. i was 424 pounds, and my doctor was recommending weight loss surgery. to avoid the surgery, i had to make a change. so i decided to go with golo and it's changed my life. when i first started golo and taking release, my cravings, they went away. and i was so surprised. you feel that your body is working and functioning the way it should be and you feel energized. golo has improved my life in so many ways.

i'm able to stand and actually make dinner. i'm able to clean my house. i'm able to do just simple tasks that a lot of people call simple, but when you're extremely heavy they're not so simple. golo is real and when you take release and follow the plan, it works. i suffer with psoriatic arthritis and psoriasis. i was on a journey for a really long time to find some relief. cosentyx works for me. cosentyx helps real people get real relief from the symptoms of psoriatic arthritis or psoriasis. serious allergic reactions, severe skin reactions that look like eczema, and an increased risk of infections, some fatal, have occurred. tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms, had a vaccine or plan to or if ibd symptoms develop or worsen. i move so much better because of cosentyx. ask your rheumatologist about cosentyx. liz: if you haven't already experienced it, at some point in

your life you will unfortunately probably know someone who dies from sepsis, the body's extreme and often deadly response to an infection. the cdc says sepsis is the leading cause of death in hospitals in the u.s. and the number one cost of hospitalization. but artificial intelligence could offer a rare solution to the deadly condition. prenosis, this is a health technology company that's just gotten first of its kind fda approval for its sepsis-detection tool. using its custom in-house-made a.i. technology, the tool monitors 22 different parameters all at once and then gives doctors an overall sepsis risk score for each individual patient. today announcing a major exclusive distribution partnership with swiss giant roche diagnostics, the big pharma company. joining me now in a fox business exclusive, ceo bobby eddy or requester. this is amazing -- bobby ready

jr. tell us exactly how this a.i. toll works. >> yeah, so, i mean, we just realized that in order to make a transformational impact on health care, you know, through a.i., it's all about the data. and so we really, we spent about 10 years building one with of the most comprehensive biological data sets, so it's really about deep insights into the biology, because accept -- sepsis like many diseases is really about the biology. liz: okay. so what does the a.i. enable you to do? there are a whole bunch of metrics, you know, nearly two dozen of them, but it's tailored to each individual patient. what do these metrics tell you in. >> it's about comprehensively understanding what's happening with the patient. we measure your vital measurements that are more traditional, but we combine that with a lot of deep insight into the biology of the patient. so there's two pieces there. the first piece is in real time we have to get those biological parameters to really understand what is the unique boyle biology of that -- biology of that

patient. but the a.i. is looking at patterns from if thousands of past patients where we spent a lot of time to collect thousands, over 100,000 blood samples now where we measure in our lab deep biology into those balad samples and then we compare -- blood samples and we compare what's happening to this current patient with thousands of past patients. liz: you were able to present statistics to the fda that enable ad you to get approval for this. >> yeah. absolutely. so we've been working with the fda for more than a year now to run the chin call studies and the right clip are call trials to really move -- chin call trials to prove that the technology works, to accurately find the patients that have sepsis and predict which patients are going to crash. liz: give me some numbers. >> thousands of patients went into the development of the algorithm, and it was a five-site study where we went through and looked at hundreds of patients inspect study to understand what was the act ag rassi of the tool. liz: let's talk about the exclusive -- exclusive deal with

roche, a 5-year distribution deal, correct? this is exclusive. what will that do, and how soon could these be in hospitals? >> yeah. so after the fda approval, the time is nil. we can have the technology in hospitals as soon as possible. we're so excited about the deal with roche because it come binds the innovation of a company like pren if osis with this mass distribution of a company like roche. and and i couldn't be more happy about the company that we signed up with just because our cultures align so well. you know, there's a lot of fear and skepticism about a.i., and i think that roche has demonstrated over many decades now their commitment to patient safety and doing these types of things responsibly. liz: does it e integrate patients' health care from previous, like, their medical records? it brings all of that in. >> it brings lots of aspects of biology, and that's really the key differentiator with prenosis and i think one of the reasons it became the first-ever authorized tool, because we're focused on quantitative

biological parameters. things that don't change from hospital to hospital. liz: i'm sure so many viewers know someone, like i said i co, who died. they went in for back surgery, they came out in a casket because of accept sit, not the back surgery. sepsis. why did you spend 10 years developing this? >> we were really passion mate about improving patient care, and when you're a patient in the hospital as we've all a been there, right, you desperately want something. you want the attention on you to make sure that the physicians, right, understand your unique biology to make sure you're getting the best treatment possible. and that's something we realized hasn't really been happening in hospitals not because ofs physicianing s -- physicians, but because they don't have the right tools to see deeply into biology. and that's why we spent about 10 years with our heads down collecting these sample, collecting the data, in many ways we feel this is the next human genome project. the same thing needs to happen

for sepsis and all the a other different conditions in the hospital before we can give each patient the right treatment. liz: sepsis is a huge cost burden on hospitals. we cover hospital stocks, we cover all of the related stocks. but are you open to an acquisition? i can imagine that some medical technology company would want to swallow you guys. >> yeah, at some point, you know, we could be open to that. for us right now it's really about the mission. the the mission is about bringing individualized care to hospitals in a way that's happened in other fields but hasn't really happened in hospitals yet. liz: nobel prize. [laughter] listen, we'll watch it. and you got fda approval so, clearly, the vetting is true. and it took roche the -- 12 months before they agreed. they watched this very closely, right? >> yeah. they do very careful due diligence, and they've survey ised many companies in the field. in many ways, it was like another fda we had to do in parallel. liz: good for you pro. welcome back by reddy, and

the -- bobby reddy. good stuff, smart people. thank you very much. >> thank you so much. liz: alibaba founder jack ma steps out from the shadows with a morale-boosting post. is that that enough to boost the stock? we're going to show you the impact. and as we head to a break, chinese a a dr ares are getting swamped with the rest are of the market, but the dow jones industrials coming up off the a lows. still down 431 points. the s&p losing 48. the nasdaq down 144. russell's still getting bruised heavily, down 55 points. ♪ (vo) a law partner rediscovers her grandmother's artistry and establishes a charitable trust to keep the craft alive for generations to come. from preserving a cultural tradition to leaving a legacy, a raymond james financial advisor gets to know you,

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liz: we should look at bitcoin. we want to update you on that. you can see a big divot here. bitcoin was in the red by about 2%. right now it e has punched into the green. it's just up $195, but it's at $69,511. let's talk about taiwan semiconductor, shares getting a bit of a lift after posting better than expected sales for the first quarter. the semiconduct or manufacturing company did experience a surge in demand for, you guessed it, its chips that power artificial intelligence. sales for the month of march jumped 34% year-over-year. taiwan semi shares up half a percent. investors, well, look at this, they are going, well, sort of gaga for baba. shares of alibaba climbing nearly 2% while the rest of the

sector is down after cofounder jack ma made a rare statement. he's been out of the spotlight for several years. 'cuz the chinese government, yeah, started to sniff around. don't even ask. but ma wrote a memo to employees that expressed support for alibaba's leadership and restructure thing efforts. deckers outdoors is on track for its largest 1-day percentage decline in more than 2 years, down 6.7% after truist downgraded the stock from a buy to a hold. deck canner's brands include ugg, hoka and teva. truist says the stock's risk-reward actually is coming more into balance now, so they also lowered their price target to $864 from $8ing 3. it's at $808 right now. the move also comes in tandem with truist's credit card data that show hoka sales could be slowing, but the cover all picture for uggs and decker is

pretty impressive, up about 61 -- is that 61? 61% over the past six months. plummeting office occupancy is taking down commercial real estate valueses with it. the biggest office building in st. louis, the former at&t building, just sold for pennieses on the dollar. avenue capital group's marc lasry has made billions buying distressed assets for pennies on the dollar. but with cities like san fran and chicago struggling to avoid a doom loop, we've got marc lasry here asking how to turn that into an investing boom loop. here he comes down the hall straight to "the claman countdown" set. we're psyched. stay with us. ♪ sup? -who are you? i'm your inner child. get in. listen, what you really need in life is some freakin' torque. what?

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now july for commercial real estate owners and lend arers facing trillions in loans that will ma if cure this year, and they were hoping rates would come down a bit, we have a warning sign emerging from the midwest. in the heart of st. louis, missouri, one of the largest office buildings -- there it is on your screen -- formerly known as the at&t building, was just sold to an organization called the goldman group. no sales price yet for that deal, but just to give you a sense of how these things are falling in price since the pandemic of 2020, in 2022 it sold for just under $4 million, a fraction of the $25 -- 205 it went for back in 2006. as american cities are trying to save their downtown districts from entering a doom loop, are we seeing now a way to cement opportunities in the cracks of commercial real estate? with inflation staying hot and interest rates staying higher for longer, what effect will this on the teetering cre

sector? joining me now, chairman ask ceo marc lasry. i mean, you made a fortune hooking for distress thed opportunities -- looking for distressed opportunities. have we seen the worst and the most distressed of these buildings coming, and what do you make of what's happening with that at&t building? >> so, look, the issue out there right now is because rates are high, and you've got less people needing space for all these buildings. hay need to be retrofitted -- they need to be retrofitted, so you've got issues because you've got all this debt coming due, and you've got to pay that off. that's why these buildings are selling for a lot less. you're going to have much, much more issues over the course of next year. even if rates come down a little wit, they've got to come down to, they've got to come at least 2-300 basis points. that's not happening. rates are going to come down, you know, other the course of this year maybe 50, and if that occurs, that's not enough to sort of solve these problems.

it's going to get worse before it gets better. liz: okay. and the fact that the fed may pivot from june to july although they never specifically said we're starting to cut in june, they said sometime this year. if it is it is just two rate cuts or one, clearly that's not going to help all of these companies that had borrowed money at zero. >> it's the not going to help them at all, you're absolutely right. it's just going to get worse. their hope was that the fed was going to start lowering rates so, in essence, they could have more room or more time. that's not happening. that's just going to take a lot longer. liz: manhattan's vacancy rate, we're talking specifically about a office space, cureman and wakefield says around a 22, 23%. it's pretty stunning. >> yeah, that's pretty high. i mean, we're just looking at buying a bunch of debt in these buildings, but the higher that vacancy rate keeps going, the lower the value of these buildings -- liz: okay. so that's where we wanted this to lead. great fortunes are made during

times of uphe'll. are you waiting, or you're starting to dip your toe, how do you do that? >> so you're absolutely right. by the way, i hope it's going to be a great fortune. we'll see. but we are starting to look at it. i think we still have time. right? so whether we -- we're not trying to time the bottom, but whether we do something at the end of this year or the beginning of next year, you going to have at lot of pressure a lot of pressure, a lot of thanks -- banks who are going to have to start selling, so i think we've got the luxury of time right now. liz: we go back to 2020 at the lockdowns, you were here on the show, and you talked about how you saw opportunity. banks just weren't lending. >> they weren't with. liz: the airlines were grounded, hotels were empty and shut down. you started getting involved with lending to airlines, if i recall correctly. but at a really good rate for you, certainly. >> yeah. liz: so how do you do that for commercial reality? i. >> i think right now what a you want to do is you want to end up

buying the debt of these buildings, so you're going to wipe out the equity. and the question is, if a bank is owed $500 million, are you buying this at $200 million, $300 million. it's really going to be the cities count you're going to be paying to the -- the discount you're going to be paying to the banks. and i think on that it depends on the amount of buildings that are for sale, the amount of lopes that are due. so right now we've got the luxury of time. liz: you know, we've seen some bankruptcies and we've seen foreclosures, in fact, some real estate data show 635 commercial real estate pore closures, january of this year -- foreclosures. that's up 17% from december, nearly twice as many as january of last year. so you're saying this is not the worst of it. >> no, not yet. i think the worst is still to come. liz: okay. is there anything that the fed could or should be doing? >> well, what the fed -- if you want to solve the real estate crisis, lower rates by 200

blips. the fed's not going to do that. the fed isn't worried about whether a lender is going to lose a building, right, or whether a real estate developer's losing a building. the fed is worried about inflation, the fed is worried about the economy. that's actually what the fed should be worried about. so the fact that rates are going to come down but it's going to take a while, like right now the economy's doing great. so the economy is growing, why should the fed lower rates in the fed doesn't want inflation to come back. i think powell's actually done a very good job. liz: you know, regional a banks are suffering a lot today -- >> yes, they are. liz: most of the financials, both big and regional, are down, in the red. but the regional as are taking an i don't want sized hit because they have the most exposure to commercial real estate loans in their vicinities and their towns. do you feoff fear that another one -- fear that another one could go belly up? is that the possibility? >> oh, i think it's not only a possibility, it's a probability. i think it will end up happening. the problem for regional banks is they were making their money

on loaning on on the real estate side. so even if today that building is still fine, what you would buy that loan at because of where rates are, you end up buying that loan at 80 cents or 90 cents on the dollar. so for most of these regional a banks, they're going to have to take a hit. and the question is does the federal reserve actually force them to mark it to market? if they do, you're going to see a lot of these regional banks have problems. liz: new york community bank suffered a major, frightening moment. it was almost like a heart attack and steven me knew chin, of course, the former treasury secretary, and a band of brothers came in and injected a lot of money -- steven mnuchin. how long do they have to wait until that comes through in oh -- through? i think they're getting hit pretty significantly at this hour. >> that, i don't know. i think steven's a smart guy. liz: is it something you would do? >> i don't know the financial,

you know, the banking sector as well as he does. if i wish i did. i wasn't the ec-treasury secretary. -- ex-treasury secretary. happy to do it, by the way -- [laughter] if anybody wants me to be treasury secretary. then i could learn a lot more. [laughter] but i'd have to really take a look at what a he did. liz: all right. let me just check new york community bank because i want to see what it has done. there was a question as to whether, you know, it was out of the woods. it is still down year to date by 71%. so it's been a tough the road here. and right now it is down about 8.5%. marc, it's great to talk to you. >> thank you. liz: thank you thank you so much. >> my pleasure. liz: maybe the fed's listening and maybe somebody's listening who will name you treasury secretary. >> sounds good. all right? liz: thank you so much. charlie gasparino's being talking to wall street big wigs about chairman powell's next move as inflation continues to simmer and, quite frankly, sizzle. charlie's up next, stay tuned.

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when people come, they say they've tried lots of diets, nothing's worked or they've lost the same 10, 20, 50 pounds over and over again. they need a real solution. i've always fought with 5-10 pounds all the time. eating all these different things and nothing's ever working.

i've done the diets, all the diets. before golo, i was barely eating but the weight wasn't going anywhere. the secret to losing weight and keeping it off is managing insulin and glucose. golo takes a systematic approach to eating that focuses on optimizing insulin levels. we tackle the cause of weight gain, not just the symptom. when you have good metabolic health, weight loss is easy. i always thought it would be so difficult to lose weight, but with golo, it wasn't. the weight just fell off. i have people come up to me all the time and ask me, "does it really work?" and all i have to say is, "here i am. it works." my advice for everyone is to go with golo. it will release your fat and it will release you. liz: wall street still has mixed feelings about a possible june rate cut especially after today's hot inflation report, or

maybe in spite of. charlie gasparino has the read on wall street's economy. >> can i have your mic for a minute? liz: this is minute. thank you for putting yours on? >> you know what i did? i went to sleep with it last night. just in these clothes, just in case i would be on without the mic. just so you know. liz: let me say the markets are in the red. off the lows of the session but they did not like this hotter than expected cpi number. >> depends who you speak to. i speak to people that know powell. here is essentially what they tell me. i didn't speak to larry fink today. he is a call that i have in. i trust his judgment on this, and i bet this is what he would say. he really wants to cut rates in june. this is jerome powell. he is a guy all about telegraphing to the market and keeping the guidance, you know, unless something radically, radically changes. 3.5% is down from where it was. you know, not saying it is great. it is growing.

but you know, i think, there is a consensus building that, yes, it is going to be more difficult to cut much more than one time in june, unless you -- i think if this thing goes to four, if you start seeing a four number in ppi and cpi, stuff like that, that is where it gets problematic. the other thing his inflation gauge is still below three. the one gauge, just telling you how the fed might, how powell might rationalize a cut in june and wait and see. liz: we can show people the bar chart of where rates were, june of 2022 nine plus percent inflation rising, 41 year highs. >> we've all been there. liz: we're now down to 3 1/2%, it still doesn't feel good

but -- >> but the gauge itself that they watch has a two on it. now, i'm, again, there's, what we think he might do, by the way this is controversial. there is people all over, larry summers says they might have to raise rates, right? he came out today and said that, he is pretty good economist, damn good. liz: michelle bowman, fed governor. >> there are people saying that. remember this is being debated but if you know powell, if you follow him, you have got, there is, i think you got to say 60/40 he cuts. 40% he doesn't is not insignificant. let's flip for a second, i want to address this one point, is this good policy? this is where it gets kind of scary. the fed has a dual mandate of full employment, as much employment you have in lows of inflation. liz: which we have. >> so that's a dual mandate. we do have the one side, the full employment. we don't have the inflation side and you know, one thing about inflation, you know this because you, this is where it becomes

political too, you see it in joe biden's approval ratings. most, if joe biden, the employment numbers that we have, the gdp prints that we have should mean joe biden gets easily reelected just based on historical precedent because they're very good. they're only not good in the context of inflation. now the price, the inflation has come down, the rate, but prices are still high. liz: correct. >> now the rate is going up a little bit. remember the sort of public policy argument against raising rates is like, you know, kick the working class in the butt again and you know, and allow this thing to keep going on and on for a longer time and maybe that gets you reelected, but it is just not good public policy because it is a tax on the middle class. you can see it in his poll numbers. remember, liz, this is, there is a lot of moving parts here. jerome powell, theoretically runs an independent agency as we

all know. it is independent. and this is, trump screamed and yelled at him, mean tweeted him. he turned and lowering rates after he raised them back in 2018, 2019. this is -- we're in, it is interesting because you got to watch fox business we will have in the coming months a confluence of major political news wickedly impactful economic and financial news all coming together will affect your portfolio. i would just like, we're going to cover this like baseball. by the way, we're in the third inning. liz: third inning, mark lastry the billionaire invest said, listen even if the fed does two rate cuts that is not enough to help the commercial real estate building lenders. >> that is another reason -- liz: they need 200 basis points. >> that's another reason why he might cut because of this commercial real estate problem impacting banks and particularly community banks. liz: charlie, thank you very

much. closing bell. we're seven minutes away. the dow is on pace for a third down day in a row. s&p on pace for the second down day out of three. let's look at the transports and russell. both have turned negative for the year. we've got the transports today alone down 298 points and the russell, sorry, that's for the sure and the russell is down just almost flat, really, but still, now in the red. market rebellion ceo, senior market strategist, mark lopresti joins us now along with federated hermes steve auth, steve, his firm has $750 billion. steve, let me begin with you. i remember march of 2020, you were on this set and you were saying everybody's scared, the market's imploding, ladder in slowly, ladder in, buy some stocks that look a lot less expensive. do you do that on a day like today or is this not enough of a selloff? >> not enough, liz.

it -- where you start. we're overweight stocks. we've been hanging on here even though we're already at our year-end target of 5200. we're headed for 6,000. the direction on rates is lower. we've never been six cuts, three cuts, we've been at one or two. today's inflation print is kind in line how we're heading. liz, longer term the investors can look toward lower rates. inflation running a little hot, three, 2 1/2, still we got a fed funds rate of five 1/2. so that's going to come down. you got the economy doing better than anyone expected. we think earnings this season, we're about to turn earnings season on friday. numbers will be good. market is only expecting plus three. we're closer to plus 10. so you know, we think you hang in there. if we get a bigger pullback which we're long overdue we would even add more. we're into the broadening out

idea of value stocks, financials, international. that's where we think the market has got some legs in the back half gofer there are some short sellers who bet against financials. they're doing very well. mark lopresti, there are some short sellers even with today's selloff are getting hammered because the stocks they bet to go down are not. which ones are you looking at most closely? >> liz, to start with, we follow the smart money at market rebellion, that is what we're known for and we've been tracking what the large hedge funds have been doing for the last five weeks and they have been significantly building some pretty significant short positions in anticipation of traders by and large getting healed of ourselves with cut expectations. we've been saying since the end of q3, not before june, maybe three this year, tampering expectations but, yeah, listen, there are some stocks we think might be getting oversold that could be setting up for a short squeeze. so we're keeping an eye on couple of those names. liz: imperial petroleum.

arbor realty trust. how do you identify them? >> first looking a first at the level of short interest. three of those names are absolutely at the top of the charts in terms of short interest relative to the float. between 60 and 80% depending on those top three. looking how those companies are positioned, balance sheet, cash flow, things like that, of course how they react to higher than longer interest rate environment. liz: steve, obviously, magnificent 10. a couple of them are not so magnificent. nvidia just happened to enter correction yesterday. it is one of the slight winners today but were you in it? where are you broadening your investments beyond some of these high-flying names? >> nvidia has great fundamentals, liz, everyone knows that, but we think the back half of the year earnings will spread out to some unloved sectors. european numbers get a lot better. you know you can't bet against tech here. it is a driver of this new bull market.

we like financials, the value stocks, some of the staples stocks, telecom, pharma, health care. you know international, emerging markets. you mentioned china earlier in the show. these are areas, and i would just add on the commercial real estate crisis, what is going to take the banking system down is an unexpected event. this is not unexpected. this has been very well-flagged. reserves have been built up gradually over the last several quarters. i think we'll get through this. it is kind of a slow motion train wreck. it is not great. but the market in general i think is overly discounted some of these things. the market is sort of implying. >> let me just say some of the winners right now, light sweet crude has turned around t had been down. i'm looking at crude at the moment trading $86.30 a barrel, now up one 1/4%. gold is down today, but it has hit record of a record. mark, tomorrow's ppi. let's spin it forward, the

producer price index, wholesale numbers, what if it comes in hotter than expected? >> if it comes in hotter than expected we'll see another down day tomorrow and i think that is a strong possibility. typically after a day like today of course we're off the session lows but we're still down pretty strongly on the day. if we see a hotter than expected on the ppi, not as important as the cpi in terms of the fed but an important inflation gauge, we could see another down day, not as significantly as today, liz. we could see the dow shed, 250, 300 points max i think and then you will see the buyers come back in. there is so much money on the sidelines. remember how strong we've been this year, there had it be some profit taking. >> that is the thing, where did you take profits, steve? we like to go inside investors like your mind. >> yeah. you know, we haven't taken profits, liz. we're letting them run and then, at the margin we are rotating a little bit out of some of the

big growth stocks. we're a little underweight there into some of these value names. to some extent we're taking profits. it is real on the large cap growth side of the market but even there i wouldn't be too aggressive. those stocks are still pretty solid in terms of fundamentals. remember, whatever tomorrow's number is, friday is the earnings season. >> right. >> it will be pretty good. the bar is set pretty low going into earnings season. >> we have some of the banks including jpmorgan friday. great to have you both, steve auth, mark lopresti. here come the bells. [closing bell rings] markets close off session lows, not as ugly a session as we saw at the beginning. tomorrow rent the runway ceo jennifer hyman and kevin murphy. that will do it for us. larry: hello, folks, welcome to "kudlow," i'm larry kudlow. so biden-flation coming in hot for the third straight month