stuart: this is the subject of much debate in the studio. we asked what baby voice has been popular in the us? james, robert, or john. ashley: i will go with number one, james. lauren: number 4. john. brian: i will go with number 2, i will thank you. stuart: i will go with james, number one. 178 million baby boys were born in america, 4.9 million were named james. thanks for joining us, see you on "the big money show". time is up for us. coast-to-coast is now. neil: all rise.

with the trial going on in new york, market averages rising and market territory, the dow 40,000. it was a good reference point. those averages are at a record on the trump hush money trial, getting a lot of folks whispering if the defense is having a good day. that is a separate issue. i want to go to what is undoubtedly a down the corner of wall and broad. a lot of reasons for this not the least of which is the notion that inflation data is coming in, less fearful than thought, retail sales slowing a little bit, feeds this argument the federal reserve won't hike and might get a cut or two in by the end of the year, at least that's what people are climbing onto. >> my job as a strategist is to figure out what's going to happen.

based on what is happening, not what should happen. based on that, i don't think the feds should cut rates but i think they will. jerome powell, chairman of the fed set it up in such a way that whatever data comes out supporting the likelihood of cuts is the date of the market trades on and the data it leans on at least to get one, or two cuts, the market is pricing two cuts for 2024 as the highest probability, given where inflation is is not the right move. people should be staying in long stocks by targeting the dow if you want to use that, 4,500. it's probably going to get there before the election and the election -- neil: 40,500. go ahead. >> i think before the election. the election throws a wrench in

things because we don't know what it is going to do to the appetite of people to be in risk assets but to me, because they are going to cut rates which i think they are, don't think they should, that gives risk assets a boost they may have to unwind out another point in time. neil: doesn't seem like now is the time to entertain cuts, no reason to rush these cuts. you could argue stocks might selloff with the cutting rates running up ahead of that move and selling off after because it could signal they are moving prematurely but i get what you are saying, go where the momentum is and it is widespread momentum. looking at the dow, hitting 40,000. we are already up 6%, the s&p north of 12%, nasdaq 12% and we

doubled where we were back in 2,020, spring of 2,020. important years doubling that and the last two years or so 40%. is that too much to pass? >> if you look at what happening in inflation, on an annualized basis, core inflation or headline inflation are accelerating and the 6-month annualized basis is what matters. looking month-to-month you get volatility but you don't get a consistent view of it, 6-month annualized which in the past they actually use. you can't see a reason to cut rates. one of my followers, i understand your point about valuations. an athlete on performance-enhancing drugs, the diet of the athlete matters when they are on performance-enhancing drugs. that's what the markets seem to be on.

it will be an extra cycle if the fed does cut rates again. the right thing is to stay long but start looking at some of that cheap insurance. neil: let me ask about the multiples that seem generous can you get that with nvidia, they were up next with the latest report but that crunched the multiples down to nosebleed 20%. this changes if earnings are keeping up with stock. >> that's where my concern comes in. companies have pricing power. inflation is ramping up and the pricing power is sustained. we thought retail sales flat and retail sales which is a more frequent data set, weekly,

we see spending accelerating, combined that with credit card delinquencies and you see that falling off the cliff pretty quickly. earnings will come down and make that multiple concern again. may be history has to adjust but they are expensive versus history. neil: and the read on that. and the economy is strong. and having said all that, the president is in heap of worry. >> debate prep, that is where the trump standing will be. the trump team is starting to tip their hands about topics

they want to cover with this. with flooring inflation of bidenomics, at the grocery store and the gas pump, the border being totally overrun and chaos at home, chaos across the world and appellate campuses. we should have one debate per month. it's a no on the biden team at that point. no more games, no more chaos, no more debate about debates, we will see donald trump on june 27th in atlanta if he shows up. biden right now in the latest fox news poll is seen as better on the democratic base issue, abortion, and healthcare and election integrity. but trump is seen as better on issues that traditionally decide elections, immigration, the economy, crime, foreign policy and there's been a rising people who say grocery prices are a major problem for their families, all the way up to 62%. these are the things that are contributing to slides for by mean key groups, he's down seven points with black voters, 7 points with suburban women and voters under 30.

>> this offer from the president to debate, a signal you realize you need to change that. >> back and forth on polling, laser focused on making sure we do everything we can to give americans a little bit of breathing room. >> reporter: he has six weeks to convince people that is happening. neil: it is fast. at the white house, speaking of the white house, honored to have the chairman of the council of economic advisers, jared bernstein, i understand your frustration when you look at the data and americans don't buy the data but they don't by the president telling them they are essentially wrong, it's not that bad.

how do you navigate? >> that is not what the president tells them. when you look at his statement on the white house website on the inflation report, got a very favorable report from the perspective of the markets as your reporting correctly. he pointed out, one of his first sentences, families are still struggling with prices that are too high, a quote from his statement yesterday. never will this president blow up the struggles of families that he grew up in. they are cutting costs, prescript and drugs, clean energy, junk fees, lower cost in those areas. neil: some might disagree on that. why the president keeps claiming this. take a look. >> president biden: we reduced inflation from 9% to close to

3%, and took office, 9% when they came to office. people have a right to be concerned. and it is down 3%. jackie: neil: you are the head of the council of economic advisers. just to be technical about it, wasn't 9% when he assumed office, it was one. 4%. it got as high as 9% in 2022, he brought it down from that but it was never 9% when he came into office. >> in the quote you played, the president talked about how concerned he was, that he consistently -- neil: he misrepresented this. >> he is making the point that

the factors that caused inflation to climb to 9% were in place when he took office. neil: he said it was at 9%. it would eventually get a 9% year-over-year after that. it wasn't 9%. if i can't trust him quoting data in real-time, why should i believe what he is talking about now? >> the annual growth in core inflation in the second quarter of 21 was in fact about 9%, and his point about inflation is very much the case. neil: you are almost as bad as he is. why can't you just say it was high, not as high as 9%, you would be accurate in saying that and we brought it down and are around the 3% area but better than it was. but to hang out on his predecessor that you inherited something that was through the roof in the middle of covid seems -- whether republican or

democrat, you are just lying. >> hold on. i hear you. the president was making the point that i think is unequivocally true. the factors that took inflation to 9% were in place when he took office. neil: that is not what he said. you are a smart guy with this stuff. you could whisper, he's a good friend of yours, think the world of you and many others do as well. you could have told him i got to tell you, mr. president, you might even call him joe, that's how close you are and just say sir, it was not 9%, stop it with a 9% because the more you say it, the more people don't believe what you are saying. >> what the american people care most about is -- neil: truth. hold on. >> this only works if you let me talk, okay? neil: i've asked 5 times in 5 ways. >> the president is making the point that factors that caused inflation were in place when he took office.

i take your point and we can go on all day back-and-forth on this. what matters today, are we making progress on lowering costs as well as lowering inflation, they are not the same thing, lowering inflation and cost on behalf of the american people. we saw a great cpi report but that's when data point. no victory laps. neil: of the for trend is your friend, looks like a kid be, the federal reserve might add like the ability to cut rates. i had a guest you might have heard earlier, that would be a mistake, a little too soon to cut rates. how do you feel about that? >> a federal reserve monetary policy, what i will say is the fed and jerome powell consistently said he needs to have more faith in his forecast. i suspect he's not the only one. a report on the cpa is a data point that helps in that regard but we have to listen to the fed on that point.

neil: market certainly like it to your point. a slow down is better than things heating up, we see the retail inflation and retail sales, job gains slowing a blistering pace. we've seen factory output which is pretty flat. are you worried, sounds like a 180 we could be looking at stagflation. prices are still high. are you worried about that? >> the question, are you worried about something, i worry about everything, there's banana peel everywhere you stepped, stagflation is low on my list for the following reason. first of all the labor market has been consistently tight with unemployment below 4% for well over two years, that is helping to generate real wage gains. the disinflation we have had is really important in that regard. we now have year over year wage growth for middle wage wrote -- workers, 14 months in a row. that is the kind of tailwind

from the job market to help and support consumer spending, 70% of our economy, and it has been a positive perpetual motion machine in terms of growth. gdp -- neil: hasn't been a perpetual machine. rent growth right now is outstripping job surges in most of the us metro areas. there's a flipside. >> i'm not sure what point you are making. neil: what people are enduring isn't -- you that earnings are going up, they are experiencing these gains. in real terms they are not. >> we have a factual disagreement. neil: rent growth is outstripping wage gains. >> i know, i want to ask you a question. on a year-over-year basis, has wage growth been beating price growth?

neil: no. when i talk about rent growth and grocery related food costs, exceeding wage gains, you see i made that up? is that under your control? >> on a year-over-year basis, wages of middle wage workers went up 0. 6%. i will put this on twitter when i get out of here. that's a fact. and in fact on a year over year basis wages are beating prices for i believe 14 months running. i will make sure that is right when i get back to my office. neil: on the rent thing and vote related costs are exceeding the wage growth of americans you say that's not happening. american wages, i want to be clear, exceeding what their costs are that they are enduring. they would have something else to tell you. >> i am not making a claim, just a factual point that wage

growth honor yearly basis is beating price growth and has been for middle wage workers for 14 months in a row. neil: just to be clear, you are saying that is not exceeding what they are making. americans -- >> stop that. neil: stop buying a number of items precisely because of that. you are saying it's not that bad, you sound like let them eat cake. they can't afford the cake. >> i started this interview by quoting the president saying we know families are struggling with high prices, that's why our top priority -- neil: you dismiss the high prices. only lately has the president acknowledged there might be a price problem. >> let me ask you an important question for you. here is grocery price inflation for the last two months, grocery price inflation, 0%,

0%, negative 0. 2%. that's the last three months of grocery price inflation. my question for you -- have you done a story about this? neil: we talked about -- >> a story on the decline in grocery prices. neil: you are talking about the rate -- >> minus. 2. neil: the rate of increase has slowed. you are not talking about the gas gains in double-digit. you are isolating a 3-month period. please, this is an important point. i don't mean to bus murch you. you've got to acknowledge when you make a big deal of prices that stop searching or hold their own after they have gone up at a double-digit rate and crawl about that as progress, hallelujah but for people who go in the grocery store line stereo experience prices that are now a lot higher than they

used to be you are saying essentially you are imagining it, they are not imagining it. >> they are not imagining it at all. jack: right the last three months -- >> you have to pay attention to me. thank you. i started this interview by quoting the president of the united states saying, quote, we know that families are struggling with prices that are too high, and therefore our top agenda is to lower costs. lauren: 1 should i believe it? when he doesn't believe in accurately talking about what inflation was when he took office? why should i believe what he says now when he doesn't even know what is happening with inflation since he took office. >> look what he has done on junk fees. and put a microphone in someone with lower prescription drug costs, and some in getting rid

of the airline junk fees. neil: -- >> i don't have a news station. you are a news station. neil: the data that supports that. >> how are my cherry picking the data? i started this interview talking about people struggling with prices that are too high. i then told you a fact that apparently you are not getting which is wages are beating prices. neil: is the president whose not getting the inflation thing. the president keep saying inflation was at 9% when i took office. this gets to the part of the problem, if the president can't get facts right, why will i be leave anything about what is going on now? >> when the president says families are struggling with prices that are too high and he has an aggressive a judge to address that, you should listen

to him to the extent that he can prove that he is implanting that agenda. let me talk about that. when it comes to the cost of insulin and prescription drugs, he has passed legislation that has lowered those costs. when it comes to junk fees and entertainment and airfares, banking, credit cards, he has actively lowered cost in those areas. neil: junk fees cut on -- >> when the president -- neil: doesn't get the big number. >> let me finish. go back a year or two and look what grocery prices were doing, they were growing double-digit. for the last three months they have been 0 or negative. that's not a victory lap. to come to your question. our fight is not over. people are still paying too much. i want to be -- neil: that is when you were at 9% and we are down from that. >> if groceries were up three months in a row you would have

done a story about that. the fact that they are flat or down three months in a row, i urge you to elevate that. neil: if you're up 9, 10, 11, 12% it is not one thing to hold those levels, you've got to start bringing those levels down in reverse. >> and that is an important part of the story that you should tell. neil: i would love to have you back. maybe talk to the president about the 9% thing and we are off to the races but it is always good having you. jared bernstein on that. i apologize if i got overheated. it is lunch time. more after this. ♪ ♪(voya)♪ there are some things that work better together. like your workplace benefits and retirement savings. voya helps you choose the right amounts without over or under investing. so you can feel confident in your financial choices voya, well planned,

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helps millions of people put food on the table. when people are fed, futures are nourished. join the movement to end hunger and together we can open endless possibilities for people to thrive. visit feedingamerica.org/actnow >> reporter: welcome back to coast to coast was we hear an ambulance trying to get through the traffic in new york city. inside the court, some things that could potentially damage the prosecution case against donald trump and that is the accusation that michael cohen has interdicted himself when he told the jury what he said in the past, this comes from a prominent new york city lawyer named robert castillo who claims back in 2018, cohen was

right about the fbi, he advised michael cohen and says cohen told him donald trump was not involved in the arrangement to keep stormy daniels quiet. he says cohen took credit for the whole thing saying trump did not ask for or pay for or know about it. costello told his story this morning on america's newsroom. >> kept going back and suggesting get to him if you have something truthful on donald trump, now is the time to cooperate. he kept on saying over and over again, 10 to 20 times i swear to god, i don't have anything on donald trump. cohen said i didn't believe the allegation but nevertheless it would be embarrassing to malani you. that's michael cohen's words. >> reporter: in court, cohen is being cross-examined by todd blanche was trying to portray him as someone who hates his former boss and his uneventful

tirade, he is lying under oath and not under oath repeatedly. he acknowledged it they lied to robert muller's investigators in the russia election interference investigation. he lied under oath when testifying at a congressional hearing in 2019, he lied to his bankers, he lied on his home equity loan, and how to get a pardon from donald trump. you knew you were lying? yes, said cohen. robert costello, that lawyer, says he hasn't got a subpoena but trump's defense does call him, that would be interesting if he has a completely different story for michael cohen, and on monday and tuesday. back to you. neil: you stay cool under fire with sirens. eric sean at new york state supreme court. bob you sack, editorial board number, bush 43 speechwriter.

administration likes to say left donald trump sit in the courthouse and deal with those illegal problems. we are looking at improving the economy and those problems are no longer our rounds. you might've heard the exchange of jared bernstein, they are saying the trend is there friend but depending who you talk to the american public simply isn't buying it. >> getting closer to the election and polls have shown over the last year plus that voters are sour on the economy. despite the administration's spin, it's not landing. it's a good strategy to say things are getting better but at the same time, biden has to lean into this is a painful time and i understand your pain and i don't hear that rhetoric from the president. neil: i don't either, the president is right to say inflation was at 9% under his stewardship in 2,020 do. having said that, keeps going back and insisting he inherited

that inflation rates so my argument with jared bernstein is if you are misrepresenting that, what else are you misrepresenting? therein lies the breadth of the administration, still insists the trend you hope will be your friend but what do you think? >> you hit the nail on the head. that hold exchange, it was about one fact was inflation at 9% when joe biden came in, clearly was not. the fact that it takes jousting, they can't get to that point shows the problem. not just mister bernstein. the whole administration is gas lighting the american people about what happened when he took over, it sends a message, really condescending that the american people are not smart

enough to understand president biden's achievements. charles: neil: we will speak to the former council of economic advisers who had jared bernstein, he is next. ♪ (ella) fashion moves fast. (jen) so we partner with verizon to take our operations to the next level. (marquis) with a custom private 5g network. (ella) we get more control of production, efficiencies, and greater agility. (jen) that's enterprise intelligence. (vo) it's your vision, it's your verizon.

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(grandpa vo) i'm the richest guy in the world. hi baby! (woman 1 vo) i have inherited the best traditions. (woman 2 vo) i have a great boss... it's me. (man 1 vo) i have people, people i can count on. (man 2 vo) i have time to give (grandma vo) and a million stories to share. (grandpa vo) if that's not rich, i don't know what is. (vo) the key to being rich is knowing what counts. lauren: 1 why does he keep misrepresenting this?

>> he's making a point that the factors that caused inflation to climb to 9% were in place when he took office. neil: is not what he said. he said it was at 9%. it would eventually get to 9% a year after that. the fact of the matter is it wasn't 9%. back-and-forth it went to. i was probably rude, didn't mean to share it like that or come off like that. a couple of you saying no lunch for you today, as if i am doing the show right here. the council of economic advisers chairman under donald trump, the predecessor to the fellow you just saw, jared bernstein. i want to get back, you remember what it was like as you were leaving office and looking at one. 4% unemployment rate. it wouldn't last very long but for the administration to say

this is a new wrinkle, the policies were in place that would lift that average to 9%, a bit of a stretch but what did you make of that? >> the model that shows that, jared has a great deal of affection, invited back on the show and have them put on the twitter feed the model that shows that, they have a hard time finding such a model. the fact is there was a lot of stimulus spending in 2020 but you might remember 4 or 5 times we passed a stimulus bill right size for the amount anthony fauci was causing get. after declining gdp gdp was flat for the year meaning the stimulus was right size, they inherited 6% growth and then came in on a partisan basis and passed a stimulus bill which you might recall after that they wrote an article that said this is classic inflationary

spending that supply is going down with demand going up and my models were saying inflation was 70%. what i have to say, the thing i respect about you, you've been that hard on me. journalists are supposed to ask hard questions and make people try to enter. jared was in a difficult spot because you can't actually say the president is lying. neil: if you wanted to clarify something to donald trump, he's the president, he is your boss and i get what he is saying. president biden keep saying this about the 9% inflation. anyone worth his salt, it's a little bit different, no one is doing that or if they are a, is ignoring them. what do we make of that? >> it is difficult spot, they have the staff secretary process where anything the

president says gets fact checked by the council of economic advisers. false facts don't make it through that process. every once in a while, you probably remember when i was at the white house a couple times a bad number came out and i corrected it right away, took a while to do it but i always tried to get the numbers right and jared said there's a model that says 9% was going to happen already. i don't think there was but you should ask him back. neil: i don't remember it but we came from and economy, you were experiencing that. i'm not blaming or attribute anything to either president. coming out of that when going 0 miles an hour, any movement after that is going to seem like 60 miles an hour, prices demand, et cetera, they compounded it with all the spending. if we got into a pickle like that again, i don't know what role you will play in a future

trump administration. he regards you very highly. how would you deal with is that? would you swing off spending, swear off more tax cuts especially with tax cuts that expire next year, what would you do if as some economists think we could go into a slow down, maybe not a recession but a slow down from where we are? >> we were running the numbers, if we go back to the spending we thought we would have in 2019 before covid hit, we would reduce spending the next decade by $8 trillion and what happened was covid spending went up in 2020, president biden and his team used that as an excuse to spend money on green things and their favorite project so spending didn't go down even though the emergency was over and inflation came

from, if there is a new administration, and easy place to start is to say if nancy pelosi thought the spending trajectory in 2019 was just, maybe we should start from there and see how much spending we could cut and there should be plenty of room to make the tax cuts permanent. neil: that will be an uphill fight. the former council of economic advisers under donald trump. in the meantime we are focusing on new tension between israel and the united states, benjamin netanyahu telling the president don't but in, but out. any involvement in gaza, no you won't, getting that nasty after this. and doug. (bell ringing) limu, someone needs to customize and save hundreds on car insurance with liberty mutual. let's fly! (inaudible sounds) chief! doug. (inaudible sounds) ooooo ah. (elevator doors opening) (inaudible sounds) i thought you were right behind me.

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>> house will be voting on legislation to compel the delivery of defense weapons to israel as they fight to protect themselves radical terrorists and defend their existence as a nation. chuck schumer is suggesting he refuses to bring it to the senate floor. neil: my next guest wants to make sure gets through but having trouble seeing to it. greg steube kind enough to join us. looks like you are at an

impasse, the president saying i decide on what's included in those armament and canceling the way the invasion is going. is going to limit that. and looks like he' s going to get his way. >> and to support what he's doing or support israel. we've got an administration and senate's not willing to support our ally who is attacked in the worst attack since the holocaust on the jewish people. the 222nd day of american citizens still being held as hostages by hamas and this administration isn't getting our people, these are american citizens held by hamas. as a former military guy, very frustrating. you had the assumption our government and military had

your back and if you got captured or were going to be held hostage, your government was going to come get you and 222 days have gone by, american citizens being held by terrorist organizations in an administration that undermining going after the terrorist organization that is unheard of. neil: you are young man who served this country but i don't remember a time things were this tense between ourselves and israel. others tinkered around with armaments but didn't do so publicly. certainly indicated in real time. benjamin netanyahu says he will conduct this war and rejected us calls for a post war in gaza and he is more or less saying i am done with you. is and he? >> good for him as he should. i don't want him to think there are people like myself and the republican house that don't support what he's doing, one hundred% support what he's doing, he's got to eradicate

hamas from gaza so they have a semblance of peace and a lot of members join in that it is sad we have an administration not supporting him. good on him to do what is right for israel despite the fact american won't stand with him. neil: the president is planning executive action at the border that calls for every time he gets to 4,000 across on a given day, could be wrong about that. feel free to correct me and he will and prevent a plan that would be shut down. he always had the power and authority, you are urged him to use it. what do you think? >> despite the fact we called on him not to do the things he has done he has taken 64 executor factions on the southern border which created the crisis we are currently experiencing. numbers we've not seen in the history of our country, april's numbers, one hundred 79,000 people have come in, 50,000 chinese communist party individuals, 50,000 russians, people from all over the world,

it is unsustainable and a state like florida it is a cost to floridians and you see it every day, i had a constituent in my district who was raped by an illegal immigrant in our country and starting to see the political pressure of that. this is is a 75% or 80% issue in november so he feels he has to do something but he has to do is reverse the 64 executor factions he already took and we are back on the trump era policies that prevented this invasion to begin with. stuart: looks like one of those actions will be rescinded but we will see. we don't know what the plan is. good seeing you, thank you very much. in the meantime, the update on backers and donors that are now heading to donald trump. more intriguing because in the case of more than a few they are former biden backers. after this. ♪

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stuart: my next guest is not a big trump backer but he was a backer of president biden. he is the founder and managing partner of a venture capital fund investing in clean energy in the kinds of things that get attention to evs and the like, great support for a president biden early on, less so now. that i characterize that correctly? >> that is true. the most important issue for me and many people i know is the us's relationship president biden says he's a zionist and has a 50 year track record that backs that up but if you look at the clips going on over the decades talking about how horrible the amounts would be it is not just a contradiction but the energy and the fact that he said it so

vociferously, these days the only thing i can conclude is those around him who were sympathetic to israel are getting the best of him. neil: to win votes in a battleground state like michigan, you think he is risking jewish-american voters support which is more overwhelming? >> i can't believe the people who told me they are not voting for him or even voting for trump. neil: could you clarify that? they are not necessarily voting for trump, they might not vote at all but you see a good many will vote for trump? >> some told me they will vote for trump. i view this, you know the trolley problem? if you don't do anything the trolley might hit 5 people, you can make the trolley turn and it will kill one person. i don't want to positively act, there's a train wreck coming

with either of these guys and i don't want to act positively to be a part of that and that is i'm not going to vote, maybe i will write in john fetterman. neil: you seen these campus uprisings and anti-semitism, seems to be alive and well, does that concern you? didn't take much to make it go full force? >> it concerns me and it's a symptom of long-standing situation that is going on in the university community and other institutions in america but it represents a small minority of actual voting public which is why it surprises me the president has viewed it as so much of a danger to him. stuart: neil: don't want to quote him exactly but the gist of donald trump's position when he talked

about jewish voters, if you are voting for president biden you are nuts. if you are voting and supporting all of what is going on with these demonstrations you are crazy. what do you think? >> i don't want to say that's the case. i have family and friends planning to vote for president biden but the real issue, you don't have to be jewish or pro-israel to be jarred by the fact that last tuesday, holocaust remembrance day he gave a terrific speech, worth watching but he said the relationship and his commitment to israel security was ironclad. that was last tuesday. last wednesday he was on cnn and says i don't like of the way they are conducting this defense you war after a deadliest day for peace since the holocaust so we suspend certain --