thursday and monday. and prepare to hit traffic on the way. a record 38 million plus are expected the drive to their destinations, 3.5 million americans expected the fly, nearly 32 million traveling by bus, cruise or train -- 2 million. if your hoping to avoid a big crowd, stay away from orlando, seattle and manhattan, ranking the highest on the top 10 list. >> that'll do it for us, thanks so much for joining us and safe travels this memorial day weekend as we honor our men and women in uniform. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ jack: welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead. i'm jack9 otter. coming up, china's electric

vehicle i have is threatening to dominate the market. can us automakers pull ahead of the competition and later, a big week for artificial intelligence, nvidia's to blowout earnings. we begin with our expert panel if three things investors ought to be thinking about. on"barron's roundtable,"s ben levisohn, jack howe and teresa rivas is. ben, we all think last week was scary, there was a bad drop in the market on thursday, but when you looked at the end result, the s&p and nasdaq was up, dow was down a little bit. >> yeah. for the dow, it was a terrible week, the dow was down more than 2%, but you look at the nasdaq, it was up more than 11, and the s&p -- 11 and the s&p did absolutely nothing. and there were lots of reasons being thrown around whether it was the fed minutes, rate hike fears, but really it just come down to nvidia. the chipmaker came out with earnings, jumped something like almost 10%.

and whether you owned nvidia or not really determined whether the index went up or not. nasdaq owns lots, s&p owns a good chunk of it but not as much, and the dow owns none. it only owns intel. and that really determined which index was up and which one was down. jack: you wouldn't suggest investors or back up the truck for nvidia, right? most of us actually own it through an s&p 500 fund or an actively-managed mutual fund. >> that's right. if you own an actively-managed s&p 500 fund, you have a stake in the stock. this is -- it's the third largest 40 holding in the spy etf that follows the s&p 500, so you really don't need to buy another chunk unless you think nvidia's going to keep going occupy. i just think getting that concentration, you've already got enough. jack: that makes sense. 9 a long weekend, a few earnings reports will trickle out, but really inflation is on everyone's mind. >> that's right. we'll get costco,

salesforce.com, but they're not going to move the market. pce contained the fed's favorite inflation metric, the core pce, price index is supposed to rise about 2.8%, the same as last month. we really need to see that start moving down. if there's a surprise higher, it's going to be bad for this market. welcome backing jon teresa, a tale of two retailers. the week before last walmart came out with great earnings and projected good things. target came out this past week, not so much. >> it pains me to say this as someone who is target all the way, but it honestly feel like walmart is the new target and vice very or saw. if you're thinking of a pleasant shopping experience in a well-stocked, bright store, you used to think target whereas the new walmart supercenters look like that, and target are the stores that are kind of dingy, not well staffed, running out of stock. it's unfortunate, but i feel like that is really playing out, and you see that in the earnings. there's the question of closing self-checkouts to reduce

shoplifting. target's been successful there, but at what cost? i personally have walked out of the store without buying things because tonight i don't want to wait for the for two cash registers that are open. jack: i'm not sure, but it sounds as if the whole store experience is becoming more target-like, and they're doing other things well too, right? >> certainly. i think we've seen them increase the range, and you see a lot of high income americans shopping there now p. and walmart makes that a easy with something like walmart plus, their subscription service, and they're doing a lot of other things right too in the terms of branching out into advertising and other high margin businesses. jack: yeah, they have so many people coming to hair web site, they can actually -- their web site, they can actually sell advertising. >> absolutely. those eyeballs are valuable. the same way as they are on amazon. jack: jack, you flew back from houston just in time to experience a terrible storm up here. what's the market connection? >> well, we're coming up on the start of the atlantic hurricane season. that's june 1st, it runs through

november. noaa, the weather science group, they say it's going to be a double doozy. it's the highest probability ever for a bad storm season they're predicting, and they're also predicting the greatest number ever of named storms. we could get all the way from al a berto through william this season, and you should say a prayer for your homeowners insurance because costs are soaring, and companies are getting choosier about their coverage. in houston, freak storm knocked out power for a million people. one woman said her roof was damaged, she's not sure how she's going to the pay for it because she wasn't able to get coverage from a private insurer, she had to to use state coverage which she said is not very good. i come back to westchester, new york, freak hailstorm took down branches all over my town. among the the scale of houston, of course, but a lot of people are wondering is the wacky weather coming for them next. and financially it might be, because there were 8 states that ran losses -- 18 states that ran

losses last year in the homeowners insurance business. and so, you know, as i say, that's causing companies to raise their prices and to get picky about what a they'll cover. jack: it's really difficult for homeowners. i'm wondering though what a does it mean for the insurance industry? are they going to be able to raise premiums enough to cover the potential losses? >> so the way it usually works, you know, you get this base level of storm, one really bad year the insurance companies run a loss, everybody raises prices, and then investors actually turn bullish on the stocks because they figure, okay, the prices are going to stick, the higher rates are going to stick, and we're going to go back to normal on the level of damage. and we've actually seen some of these stocks running up9 lately. the problem is if noa a a's right about the coming hunger season, and if we do see this higher base level of storm damage, the biggest increase in storm damage, in damage around the country hasn't been from hurricanes or wildfire, it's just been from severe storms that that aren't are hurricanes. so we see this higher base level

of damage going forward, it might not be so profitable for insurers, and we might see a continuation of rate hikes. jack: and there's still some nice communities toward the north that are very vulnerable. that's going to be ugly all around. thank you, jack. all right, the investing landscape has entered a new regime according to my next guest, and she's out with a playbook. global wealth strategist paula campbell roberts joins me next. ♪ ♪ and when i got there, they have the sushi- this is clem. like sushi classy- clem's not a morning person. i'm tasting it- or a night person. or a... people person. but he is an “i can solve this in 4 different ways” person. and that person... is impossible to replace. you need clem. clem needs benefits. work with principal so we can help you help clem

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♪ (alarm sound) ♪ amelia, turn off alarm. amelia, weather. 70 degrees and sunny today. amelia, unlock the door. i'm afraid i can't do that, jen. ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ why not? did you forget something? ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ my protein shake. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. you're so dramatic amelia. bye jen. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com. jack: higher interest rate, rising geopolitical techs and an election year are all playing a role in aloe indicating money. my guest has an investment playbook to help navigate markets. joining me now, kkr chief investment strategist for global

wealth paula a campbell roberts. thanks so much for coming in. >> thanks for having me, jack, a pleasure. cc jon you are firmly in this higher for if longer camp, but some of the forces that convince you that's the case might surprise some people. let's start with a.i.. everyone says it's going to makes more efficient, maybe replace some labor. those are disinflationary forces, with but you think it could be inflationary. >> that's right. the belief is a.i. will pull the seam out of inflation, but in reality if you think about the infrastructure from water usage to the use of energy and even labor which is in short supply today, because of those that will drive up flakes in the short term. jack: another trend your looking at is immigration and demography, and you think that demographics could been inflationary as well. >> that's exactly right. for a while we've been talking about the aging demographic, right in the aging of the population -- jack: and they're supposed to spend less, right? >> exactly.

now, fast forward to covid when you also had excess retirement, the resulting labor shortage a is what is driving wage inflation higher which is supporting the elevate leveled of services inflation. so demographics are inflationary. jack: let's talk about the investment playbook in this scenario. you focus on private markets but, real quick, if you were restricted to public markets, what would your advice be? >> absolutely. if you think about large cap public equities in particular both in the u.s. and europe, they're both suffering from a concentration risk; that is, 7-11 stocks depending on the region are really driving the performance in both indices in the u.s. and europe. that's a problem if you think about what most 60-40 or balanced investors believe that they're invested in. so what's critical for investors in public market is the is to seek questionersification. so if you're -- diversification. if you're a u.s. investor, i would say seek regional a diversification. europe looks attractive but also japan, for example. jack: yeah, japan's been doing very well.

and to your point, you own the s&p 500, but it's mostly 10 stocks. >> exactly, it's 7. jack: people probably don't understand that most of the economy is not the s&p 500, it's actually private companies. that's with where you play. and we've actually seen a trend toward fewer companies going public. the wilshire 5000 only has about3 000 stocks. tell us why you like private markets. >> well, the start with, if you talk about the opportunity set, since 2012 the number of public companies in the u.s. has been shrinking by 30. globally, that number is closer to 50%. so if you're just ans investor and, again, seeking diversification, why would you limit yourself and only limit yourself to a smaller opportunity set? so, first and foremost, invest in private markets because that's where the with bulk of the opportunity lies. jack: all right. now, you're going to be careful about, i know, talking your book, but i'll talk it for you which is to say there was just this announcement as reported in the "wall street journal" late last week that kk kr was

partnering with are retail-focused mutual fund company, capital group, to come out with these hybrid etfs that will be partly publicly-traded bonds but also private companies. so can you go into a little more detail for us about what a you think the benefits to adding them to your 401(k) or your investment though sis would be? >> so private markets will help investors achieve some of that diversification, volatility mitigation and help boost returns. that's critical in terms of the value proposition. now, when we think about private markets, institutions have relied on private markets for decades, but until recently, only ultra-high net if worth individuals could access those the same investments via drawdown vehicles, for example. with this new announcement that we've mentioned by a capital group, and i think this is the direction the industry is headed in, non-accredited investors have access to these very same sluices. jack: unfortunately, we don't

have have a time to do a deep diving but another benefit can be that because it's not sold as frequently, there's a little less pressure in bad time, right in. >> that's absolutely the case. that's part of the reason why you have this premium which is the excess if return of private market over public market, and in private equity that has average over time increased. and in the market we foresee over the next five years driven by the same factors you started out describing, volatility is the same thing we expect, so is this is a time where private market should outperform. jack: paula carp bell roberts, thank you so much -- campbell roberts, thank you so much. >> thank you, jack. jack: china's electric vehicle success driving concerns here at home. our expert panel looks at how u.s. automakers can pull ahead, next.

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jack: from clothes to toys and electronics, the made in china label has flooded the u.s. market. the biden administration if has announced a 100% tariff on electric vehicles 'em ported from beijing this week trying to protect american manufacturers. former president trump says he'd raise tariffs even higher. with but the threat might be overblown if u.s. automakers step up their game. it's the barron's cover story this week, and associate editor al root joins the pant al, great story. i learned a9 lot of stuff. let's start be -- i really did -- the alliance for american manufacturers says chinese evs,s quote, could end up being an an extinction 2006-level event. what's driving all this concern? >> i don't know why i should be surprised you liked it, but that always surprises me. a $10,000 car just isn't the threat that you thinks it is. byd is a real competitor.

there's lot of reasons people are afraid. china's the largest market for new cars, the largest maker of electric vehicles. byd is, makes -- made 3 million electrified cars last year, in the fourth quarter they actually sold more all-electric cars than tesla, so there's lots of reasons that you should be afraid. but we can get to the $10,000 car in a a second. there's no chinese-branded car sold in america right now, no chinese capacity on this continent except if a small joint venture plant in mexico. the chinese will export cars, they're going to start in europe, and they also ship cars to southeast asia and places like that. the threat for the u.s. is literally a decade away. and that a makes these tariffs to some extent politically motivated. and you can even see that in this sort of bang and forth of i can raise tariffs higher than you. jack: the yellow car is called the seagull. i'm not rushing to the dealership for one of those, but

i could see a recent grad, a $10,000 electric vehicle, hey, that sounds like a good deal. >> yeah. and it's not that nobody likes a good deal, and it's not that -- but the thing about the seagull, it's just not magic. general motors can make cheap cars too. they have a $5,000ev in china. the market sort of decides the kind of cars that you purchase and, you know, those college student, you know, the cheapest 10 cars in the u.s., they garner about a 6% of the market in 2023. that's the market for the cheapest cars. and then the kind of market that you're in whether it's china or india, mexico or here, that sort of sets the price of the cheapest cars. you know, like, you're not going to run out and buy the seagull because americans tend not to want stripped-down, cheap car, you know? it's always a nice headline, we use the you go analogy in the if story -- yugo, it was a $4,000 car and it seems great, but then

service is a progress, reliability is a problem. it's actually -- a progress, it's very expensive to get it fixed. remember, the up-front cost is only one portion of the equation there. >> so what do you think u.s. automakers need to do to head off this chinese competition? >> so the way i liked it best, we were chatting with the president of volkswagen-america, and he was sort of pragmatic. he's a foreign automake pear with capacity in the u.s. he said, listen, these tariffs can't last forever, it gives you sort of 10 years to get your act together. so what do you have to do? you have to, you know, when ford and general motors faced the threat from the japanese over the last 40 years, they were content to just sell suv and trucks and cede all the rest of the market for smaller cars to imports. not exactly the best strategy. you have to build a full lineup of attractive cars, and you have to defend market share. you have to compete. you have to sort of

strategically say, all right, what am i going to do? you know, for ford i think they should be very careful to protect smaller truck share. general motors is introducing cheaper evs this year. they should continue to do things like that. they should not do what they did, expect thing about electric vehicles, batteries are about a two two times the price of labor in a carr right? so labor costs in china have been an issue. the battery, having low cost batteries can become a defining competitive advantage. so it gives you a chance to make a better car without just throwing up your hands and saying i can't compete -- >> i thought you were going to say a lot of cup holders and wide seats for big american backsides. which u.s. auto company would you say is most at risk right now in. >> clearly, it's tesla. if you go back to the japanese, tesla is the general motors of electric vehicles. it has about 50% market share in the u.s. when general motors first saw those toyota cars coming into

their market, they had about 50% market share. so toyota -- excuse me, tesla has the most to lose, it's clear as day. and they need to do the same thing. they basically have two popular models, the 3 and the y, and they basically said we're selling so many cars, i don't need a small car. then byd comes along, growth claps and and now they're try finish collapses, and and now they're trying to accelerate their small car. today need a full product lineup that people want. jack: while china could slap tariffs on tesla, they're a little less vulnerable because they actually build things in china. >> yeah. it's more about general business climate for american businesses in china and, you know, americans and chinese aren't getting along so well, so that's the risk. jack: thanks, al. teresa and ben have a pair of investment ideas, and jack's going to say nvidia soaring could beecur trouble for googlel stay right there.

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jack: so, jack is, when it comes to a.i., everybody's talking nvidia's to earnings, but i in our business, it's not so pretty. if somebody searches for information, instead of getting linked to barron's, they amendment finish they get a paragraph to google. >> a.e. could be the biggest threat to google in decades. i asked google before show, how do i appear slimmer on television, it gives me links to articles, right? it gets paid mostly through advertising, paid hipg ares, purchases. and the publishing industry, publishing industry, as you say, depends on that traffic. if i type the same thing in the a perplexity.ai, a start-up competitor, you don't get link ares, you get these neatly-formatted tips, wear monochromatic suits, sit up

straight. invest in good shape wear. the future of search involves less clicking. unclear what that makes for google's advertising product. that is the subject of my column in barron's. jack: i didn't realize a.i. was going to be good for spanx for men. thanks for doing that, jack with. let's move to actionable ideas. saw, you were bullish on tjx a little over a year ago, turned out to be a good call. >> that's true. etch's going to be buying their spanx there. they just reported another strong quarter, they own marshall's, tj maxx, home goods, and off-price discounters have been taking share of the retail industry for ages, and it doesn't look like that's' slowing down. tj maxx will continue to reap the benefits. jack: all right, and, ben, you are sticking with the retail theme. >> i am. we all love the mall, or at

least we did before 2020, but some malls are doing okay, the high-end malls. you've got a company like simon if property group that that's doing great, but the stock hasn't done anything since about mid december. it recently sold a stake that it had in a roadway till -- retail brand, and the stock is cheaper than the reit index. it looks like it could break out to the upside. jack: all right. thanks, ben with, teresa and jack, also a always -- as always. check out this week's edition of barron's.com. -(thi'll weal -- we'll see you t week on barron's round table. -officer: you better stop... -♪ bad boys, bad boys -♪ whatcha gonna do -♪ whatcha gonna do when they come for you? ♪ -hands behind your back! -♪ bad boys, bad boys ♪ whatcha gonna do ♪ whatcha gonna do when they come for you? ♪ -announcer: "cops" is filmed on location