average salary of $62,000, put it aside, invest it in the american economy just through an index, when you retire you will be a millionaire. that's is the promise of america. so don't let, what you need is diversification, don't let people tell you you can't participate in the success of the united states of america. there is a reason everybody on earth wants to come here. there is a reason. that's it. brian: make capitalism wonderful again. i think that's the message. great stuff, kevin. >> thank you. taylor: let's make these markets wonderful again, shall we? we're not doing so well today, you guys, as we count you down to 2:00 p.m. stocks falling a little bit on weakness. sales force was a big loser today. you're seeing software really not participate in the overall rally. that's why you're seeing a lot of things under pressure. brian: i know who wants to participate, charles payne is here right now. "making money". charles: jim nicole? i'm over here playing with the

screen. we got a lot going on here. thank you very much. good afternoon, everyone, i'm charles payne, this is "making money." yeah, breaking right now, so stocks obviously continue to be under pressure. remember all this began a couple days ago with really ugly auction. what this reminds us, hey, our government is printing too much money. maybe the fed won't be able to come to the rescue. just maybe, maybe, the consumer is starting to break down. if that is truly the case, how do you invest in this market? i've got a great lineup for you, folks. a lot of my guests today are saying buy the dip. others are saying watch out before you do something like that. by the way, what do you buy? it seems like only a handful of stocks are winning but i do have a trivia question for you. what is the hottest stock over the last year? is it nvidia or could it be actually abercrombie & fitch? meanwhile, folks, consumer sentiment, it is really turning to the point where people are wondering, right, you ad home understand but wall street doesn't get it. i have two experts, cullen

roche, will talk about necessities. necessities have gone up so much in price, that there is maybe nothing the fed can do. of course danielle dimartino booth is here on really the warnings that she has been given us coming to fruition. i will share why i'm calling this economy the wimpy economy. all that and so much more on "making money." ♪. charles: all right, so listen there have been several new highs that have been established all year long but the reality, folks, is this market has shifted into a more cautious mode. i will show you two examples of this. here is your chart of the year, on top is the options activity. options volume, call volume i should be specific, call meaning betting on upside. call volume spiked early in the year right around february. right now even as the market making new highs, call volume is starting to drift a little bit less, right?

i know risk appetite is up, but people are not going crazy, right? all that call buying, maybe they're waiting for a pullback. speaking of which there has been hefty retreat in retail confidence, right? a week ago bullishness was at 47. now it is down to 39, almost ten percentage points, that is huge. bearishness still about the same area. they're not sure. neutral is above historic average. again, not panic but just sort of pulling back just a little bit because everyone kind of wants to wait and see. to me the message is pretty clear, you watch the market, not just for what's moving but for what the message is and i think the message right now there is very little room for mistakes. case in point, wall street darling, sales forms.com, wall street loves this company. this is mark benioff, right? people love him! usually when they miss come on the call he give as mix of charm and bravado, the stock goes down a few points, next day it is up.

not today. this is where it closed yesterday. this is where it is right now. this is the third worst session of salesforce.com. mark benioff couldn't talk his way out of this one. if he can't, can any talk? we see bad news as bad news for individually publicly-traded companies like the one i showed you. it is not just about earnings season. a lot of folks come on, earnings season has been great. it doesn't matter. the top line that matters. watch all the top companies missing on revenue they're paying a heavy price for it. as we wind down earnings season, the consumer looks like moving away from travel and restaurants, spending money elsewhere. a little fewer, less expensive things. here is what you look at with respect to today. this is where we opened this morning. thighs are the top gainers in the market. best buy, ross stores, dollar tree, ulta. by the way ulta worst performing stock in the market. you can go to any one of these

places with 50 bucks and get something. maybe we can't travel as much. we love to invest. we'll drill down later on in the show. we have got the conflicting things, all in our heads, making us confused. again when it comes to stocks you don't want bad news because your stock will pay the price. economy still bad news is good news. the mantra for really everyone who is bullish this year is rate cut, rate cut, rate cuts. now we backed off of that a little bit. check this out, for july we still have three firms, not only will there be a rate cut, but aggressive rate cuts for the year. citigroup looking for 100 total basis points in cuts this year. jpmorgan looking for 75. mitsubishi, 125 basis points. again they all see july as the first rate cut happening. they're cutting it close. meanwhile my first guest says investors can only hope the fed keeps stirring the monetary uncertainty. want to bring in former wall street chief investment strategist jim paulsen. i don't like the title they put in the prompter.

i have to go over that next time, jim. you're always a chief investment strategist, my man. >> i appreciate it, charles. charles: let me put up something here from paulsen's perspectives. so investors can only hope the fed keeping monetary uncertainty. what exactly does that mean? >> well i recently noticed there is a monetary policy uncertainty index that's calculated monthly going back to 1985, charles, and what i found when i looked at that, is when that thing is really elevated the average is let's say 100 on the index a little less than that, when it is above average, about 35% of the time over the whole period the stock market has done like 19% annualized returns and when it's below average, rest of the time, it only does 9%. charles: jim i will pull that up for the audience. i want them to see what it looks like. to your point it is crazy. this is uncertainty, markets

soaring on uncertainty, what is happening with monetary policy, not so much. what accounts for this? how do you explain there? >> i think at the end of the day it is like a lot of other things, charles, it is the wall of worry. if you think about it, what has been the market's biggest wall of worry really throughout this whole bull market? it's been the fed. it's been what are they going to do, what are they not going to do. that more than anything else is, if you think about it, you and i rarely make money when we're comfortable. generally the market only gives you only decent results when you're kind of not very comfortable. i think what the fed has done in many regards with its confusing messaging, every talking head coming on talking about the fed will they, won't they, i think what they have done constantly kept uncertainty and worry and anxiety, all the worry high, and the market like a foundation for the stock market to climb. charles: i will share another

table for from you for the audience. we have the powell area, prior three, greenspan, bernanke, yellen. uncertainty index has been certainly significantly higher than theirs. the result of course has been annualized returns of 12 1/2%, versus 9.7% but when i look at this isn't one of the central power, superpowers of the federal reserve credibility? if that's the case how long can powell have credibility if uncertainty is so high all the time? >> i think it's an issue, i really do. i think not just underthe powell regime. i think credibility of the fed has been going away since the oh 08 crisis. we things to zero. we used thing called tarp. we ballooned the balance sheet of the fed to nine trillion dollars. we had negative yields for a while in the world. we've got a velocity that has been chronically falling for 20

years, monetary velocity. i think there is already a lot of doubt what it means. we have had negative year on year money growth, charles, for the last two years, here we are in fairly healthy economy, rising stock market, rising job creation, with negative monetary growth two years. i think there is already a lot of doubt about that. it isn't all, it isn't fed chairman powell's fault necessarily. charles: right. >> he was handed things like the pandemic that, you know, that created this but i think they share some of the responsibility in their response to inflation, tardiness in that, really sense. just continuing to confuse the markets with what they might think or what they might do i think is continuing to diminish the fed's credibility. charles: i agree. obviously would point to the transitory inflation things, making coming out with rate cuts. maybe as aggressive but not

aggressive enough. eagerness to appease the market, we'll not hike, we'll not hike, we're going to cut. jim, a pleasure having you on. >> thanks, charles. always enjoy it. charles: same here. my next guest says the market is choppy but do doubt about it it is still a bull market. we have nicole webb. i was reading your note, the market needs some sort of confirmation outside of technology. this is the last month. so we'll call communications services technology, we'll call technology, technology, and we'll call utilities technology since they're making money off the a.i. chips. everything else is just about red or unchanged. what in this compare of the red and unchanged can pick up the slack if these begin to pull back a little bit? >> a week ago when things still looked great, we were leaning into -- charles: i think drake had a song about that. it was good a week ago. >> funny i was thinking same thing. analysts instead of cutting

earnings expectations are actually raising earnings expectations. what we have this week is a breakdown of breadth in the market. you perfectly illustrate it here. how do we get there, probably through revised guidance around growth. gdp expectations for the year. some of light whispers you're getting. your lead-in on the consumer is confusing. the consumer is confusing in the way they're spending money right now, what they say, what we see from credit card data. charles: right. >> from delinquencies, they don't necessarily align. we're getting a little bit unnerved consumer. so i think there is lot of curiosity how that trickles through. we know the psychology of housing, real estate, being such a big part of what we put our wealth into. charles: right. >> so the further out accessibility to housing gets we know that plays into the mind frame of the consumer. charles: as low as it has ever been. it was all good a week ago. what changed this week was issuance. we had, 70 billion yesterday, i think.

44 billion of seven years. we had a 70 billion auction. we had a 60 billion auction. all best c, maybe some d-minus that seems to switch the tide into over all feeling that this is an invincible market. >> well the really important thing here is that treasury yields went higher independent of economic data, independent of fed speak, independent of really any of the traditional catalysts that we think of when we think of what's pushing those rates higher. >> right. >> so when we started -- charles: let me jump in here for a moment. does that mean, does that make people afraid jay powell is not in control? if our federal government needs to raise two trillion dollars, that means buyers are in control and they are going to demand higher yields no matter what. >> it puts more onus on the debt perspective, how that transitions into the way our debt is purchased and whether that pushes rates and how much control the fed really has. >> right. >> so when we think about that

coupled on top of, you know the expectations around rate cuts and them getting pushed further out into the future, the thought of them independently being pushed higher becomes more worrisome for the market. charles: right, right. >> the second thing i want to mention a little bit here, touches on the chip cycle, the other thing investors need to think about is just the both fiscal tailwind behind this market. so the money is really tangible. you can see it because it is happening here. but second to that. the investment into the chip cycle is so robust, when you think of building a.i. factories. charles: right. >> the cost is massive. who has the free cash flow to do it outside of fiscal money. charles: right. so that is the flipside of this. there is inflation thing. there is demand with bonds and that keeps inflation, maybe pushes the fed out of the great. you can make money if they're pouring trillions into the economy. you like nvidia still, asml. >> yes. >> this is definitely not a symbol. >> walmart. charles: there we go. so you like defensive.

by the way we're seeing that today, a rally. love it. average car is like 12 years old. health care, what is vrtx? >> vertex. charles: okay. >> we're so hyper fixated on glps. our investment committee does not believe we're at the peak, probably a little bit early infancy knowing where that takes us. charles: sure. >> we've forgotten about all other the pharmaceutical advancements. vertex is sitting on non-opioid pain medication. we know about the opioid issues in this country, that could be a big catalyst for that company. charles: nicole, thank you. >> yeah. charles: all right, folks as you know we're celebrating the 10th year anniversary of "making money" with charles payne this week. i want to thank you at home as always. we'll be right back. let's share one of the memories. >> congratulations on 10 years, charles payne. it's a pleasure for us to come before your show. brian: we're so glad you're helping america make money every

single day. larry: we tune in every day after the show and we think 10 years never looked show good, sir.

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i'm able to do just simple tasks that a lot of people call simple, but when you're extremely heavy they're not so simple. golo is real and when you take release and follow the plan, it works. craig here pays too much for verizon wireless. so he sublet half his real estate office... [ bird squawks loudly ] to a pet shop. meg's moving company uses t-mobile. so she scaled down her fleet to save money. and don's paying so much for at&t, he's been waiting to update his equipment! there's a smarter way to save. comcast business mobile. you could save up to 70% on your wireless bill. so you don't have to compromise. powering smarter savings. powering possibilities. charles: so my next guest is just a brilliant watcher of the global economy an markets. i tell you what i admire about is hi work. it is about predicting, it is

about cautioning for the future. there are several areas you might feel like what, you know news hits comes out of left field, all of sudden all the tongs on wall street are wagging. really nothing comes out of left field. ftt founder president, luke roman. i want to begin with this push for second mortgages. i got to tell you i've been trying to talk about this with a lot of folks. i heard you on a podcast. there was a article that talks about how great this is, they use example of a 300,000-dollar home, bought in 2020, 3% mortgage worth half a million. borrower wants 100 grand, refinancing at 7.25. monthly payment under normal second quarter tanses would be 2700 bucks. freddie mac will be involved with some sort of magic, bringing it down to 2100 bucks. this is great for everyone. what i understand, freddie mac and fannie mae both get involved with this. we can boost the economy by three trillion dollars and and we can all live happily ever

after. your thoughts? >> [laughter] there is always, the devil is always in the details. i think ultimately what you're talking about here is a plan to try to find more consumer balance sheet. whether that's a good thing or a bad thing i think depends if you own consumer stocks or if you own long-term treasury bonds. i think it is a good thing if you own consumer stocks. it is probably not a good thing if you own long term, treasury bonds. it suggests all else equal, demand would pick up. what we're really talking about here, something that starts to look functionally like direct consumer stimmies that we all got in covid. charles: right. >> except this is just to homeowners with a lot of equity, run through the banks. so it depends, whether you're the fly or the windshield in terms of growth inflation, what

you own but those would be the impacts conceivably if it gains traction. charles: i worry about what happened last time. there was this massive refinancing thing. for a while it felt amazing until it didn't. you made comments about the 25 trillion in foreign investments in our country which we're told is luxury for having rule of law, world reserve currency, those sort of things so what could go wrong? >> well it sets up tradeoffs as there always are. the gist of it is that foreigners have on the other side of that balance sheet, right, they're holding $25 trillion in u.s. dollar sasse sets. on the other side of their balance sheet they have 13 to $25 trillion, depending how you count it in u.s. dollar-denominated assets. and so the issue is that anytime the dollar gets too strong own them, that is going to raise their dollar affected servicing costs for that 13 to

$25 trillion in dollar-denominated debt. which means they need to acquire dollars to service that debt. how do they acquire those dollars? they're going to sell those 25 trillion-dollars in assets shown on that chart that you're highlighting and they're going to sell what they can, not what they want to. what they can sell more easily are the $8 trillion of treasury bonds they own which is why we've been seeing repeatedly ever more frequent intervals over the last five years anytime the dollar gets too strong, the treasury market gets very, very sloppy very fast and what that means in plain english interest rates go up really fast and that ultimately isn't a big deal you're a government with low debt-to-gdp but when interest rates start going up on you fast, and you're the united states government with 120% debt-to-gdp, it begins to introduce accelerated fiscal concerns that three years ago we weren't hearing about at all. now we're hearing about a lot and there is good cause for

that. it really interplays with all of that. charles: wow, luke, wish we had more time, next time we'll definitely carve out some more. there are other things i want to talk to you about. thank you very much, appreciate it. >> absolutely, charles, take care. charles: see you. more data out there that the consumer starting to struggle. we'll break it all down, how it plays with the fed's decision. we have two of the best i have cullen roche and greg talk conext. >> charles, congratulations to you and the team on 10 years of "making money." >> i was going to fox, my son at business school asked if we could come with me. as we were leaving the room going to the studio, charles, noticed my son and gave him a discussion about stocks, bonds equities. invited him to come and watch as we did the show. my son remembers that to this day. >> congratulations to my friend charles payne, for 10 years, charles, you are the new ef hut

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♪. charles: all right, so we had revision to the first quarter gdp, and i got to tell you something like most economic data release as lot stands out you could cherry-pick but certain things you have to know about. kelly o'grady here with those details. >> reporter: charles, that's right. the core pce index was revised down ward. that is a big one.

3.6%, instead of originally reported 3.7%. however even with the downward revision, look at this, it stands out on this chart like a sore thumb. you had two quarters what the fed wanted to see followed by that eyesore right there. we also got some signs, that the economy is struggling a little bit. real consumer spending, for example, that plunged. right. the previous quarter came in at 3.3%. we had expected it to decline to 2 1/2%. instead we got a big drop to just 2.0%. now, i want to bring your attention to this. some argued these first quarter gdp revisions are backward looking. we're about to hit june. what we saw dovetails from the overall economic assessment from yesterday's "beige book." remember that looks at early april to mid-may. it said this, overall outlooks grew more pessimistic amid reports of rising uncertainty and greater downside risks. pretty similar to what we saw in

the first quarter gdp the fed though seems to be stuck in a quandary of their own making. on november 1st of last year, remember, jay powell, he seemed to pivot, seemed to signal tightening was over. that sent the stock market higher. bond yields lower but that signaling also took pressure off financial conditions, right? so right here, that's november, when powell said that. it made people feel relief was coming. i mean look, these financial conditions, they're significantly easier now than when you go back to when the fed started tightening back in march of 2022. if the goal was to take swagger out of the economy, helping to spark a extra nine trillion in stock market valuation probably not going to help. now admittedly there are signs that housing is breaking down. so this morning pending home sales, they were down 7.7% in april. that was from the previous month, right? you see that little bit right there? and that's really important, charles. it is a forward-looking

indicator. excuse me based on signed contracts. so if you are your prices are still hot, you got the economy slowing weakness, right. a little bit of conflicting things there. interestingly fed speak has begun to turn more hawkish of late. you see the little spike there. the i have to point out the peak of dovishness, that was right there the peak of the 40 year bull bond market. that might not be enough to save the economy anyway. in a op-ed for bloomberg, former new york fed president bill dudley he suggested that the fed needs to resume hiking to cool economy, not something the stock market wants to see, charles. charles: not at all, kelly. thank you very much. great stuff. my next guest laid out reasons why consumers are so negative. bring in discipline funds founder cio, cullen roche cullen, your work focused on necessities. this is what is really hurting

folks because the price of necessities soared recently? >> right. the last few years speaks to the difference the way a lot of economists and even analysts like myself view inflation versus the way real people see inflation. i think that the fed likes to look at things like core inflation but real consumers, they focus on core necessities. i'm referring when i say core necessities, i'm referring to things like shelter, used cars, gasoline, food basically. these are the, sort of the forward modern items i would say are the most problematic for the consumer. they have all lagged wage gains. that is really important because, the way that i like to view living standards, improvements in living standards over long periods of time, primary looking through necessities. people look at things, for instance, in the year 1900, you could look at necessities like clothing, food and shelter. they amounted for 80% of total

income. you had to spend 80% of your income just on those three items. by the year twist fifth, americans were spending 45% on those three items. that is huge increase in living standards. a lot started to reverse in the last five years. charles: so these areas, home prices, gasoline, food, it seems like some of it is outside the reach of the federal reserve. how do those prices ever come down? >> yeah, i mean it's, fed policy is notoriously blunt. i would argue the shelter one has been the biggie. i think that is the one, especially for financial planners, i laugh, there is an old rule in financial planning you should spend no more than 28% of your income on your mortgage. that number is 40% now. we're talking about a humongous change in someone's discretionary spending if they're now buying a new home with a mortgage. they have to, you know, cobble together all this other cash to divert from other things.

or they have to be borrowing more, which is something that potentially more worrisome. charles: right. >> so can the fed really combat this? it is very blunt. it is very indirect. i think it is slowly working its way through the housing market. you were alluding to the weakness in the housing market, we're getting there. the fed data lags way they calculate some of this stuff with owners equivalent rent but right now it is still a frustrating time. if you're someone prudent saving through covid, you saw home prices surge by 50%, mortgage rates double, you're furious with what is going on because you feel trapped in a renters market that is increasing in price. you feel like you're never going to be able to buy a home. charles: we see that almost in every survey. the american dream of homeownership falling further and further away. whether it is reality or not a lot of economists debate that people believe it, feel it. to your point upset about it.

cullen, thank you very much. >> thanks, charles. charles: my next guest recently wrote uncertainty is with fed policymakers favoring policy prudence. want to bring in ey part none greg dacco. greg, looking at this article, one of many you written, patience is a virtue but prudence is one too. >> yeah. >> what is the message to the fed you're trying to put out here? >> i think the fed should adopt forward more looking framework when it comes to uncertain times. we're in a environment where lot of noise to signal in the economic data. we're seeing signs of economic activity cooling. we're still also seeing signs disinflation is underway. i think the fed should be prudent how it conduct the monetary policy going forward. take some of the weight off this first rate cut, that has taken in my opinion too much importance. it doesn't mean the fed is on a predetermined path once it starts cutting. >> here's the thing, sounds like you're saying get away from data

dependency? >> yes. charles: really they have 400 phds. they, a lot of this, okay, maybe it is a surprise here and there but they were designed as an organization to be able to understand what's happening and you know, always sounds like they're not going to go where the football is heading or where the puck is heading but once it gets there. that means they will always be late. the other guy is already celebrating a goal or a touch down, that part, i don't get. how do we get to the notion they will only react to data when it feels like that is late because it feels like when you get the data something else happened since then. >> extreme data dependence is risky. we're in a environment focused on backward looking data. that data as i mentioned tends to be quite noisy. you have a lot of noise to signal. revisions can make the prior narrative all wrong. charles: revisions lately have been mind-boggling. >> they have been very large, that is a big issue.

you talk about sports, sometimes i feel like watching the fed you're watching the youth soaker game, the ball is essentially the data, all the players are running around in the statement area, there isn't as much diversity of opinion, diversity of view around that data, more of that forward-looking perspective? where is the economy headed? what is the underlying drivers of inflation. charles: there was a time they had folks who weren't economists. i look at the makeup of the fed in the beginning, business people to your point. having said all that you still see rate cuts happening, you don't agree with dudley. dudley's notion, hey, you know what if you're going to be preemptive, preimperative on the side of maybe hiking instead of being caught flat footed. >> i don't think hike something the opt tall cost of this environment. inflation is moving lower. it may not feel like it because we're still factoring four years of record high inflation. so cost fatigue is very much there, very much affecting

morale, but if you look at inflation dynamics which are really the key focus of the fed they're edging back down towards 2%. does the fed need and want to squeeze factors that may not be influenced as much as initially thought by tighter policy or do they want to be prudent and adopt a more careful stance. charles: i have got 30 seconds but i want to make this point for the audience, because as much as wall street puts on the pom pom for rate cuts, usually happens the market goes down initially, to your point the fed is late. lateness is is reflected in earnings report, reflected in a whole lot of things. what are the chances they wake too long to cut? >> i think they're increasingly high. we're seeing a consensus view, consensus feeling right now the best approach is higher for longer. take a couple of bad reports you will see that consensus shift rather quickly towards easing. they may be a little bit late to the game especially if the weakness comes from the labor market until now has been quite robust. charles: great stuff.

>> always a pleasure. charles: same here. without looking it up we have trivia for you, in the last year what stock performed best? i will give you four, nvidia, abercrombie & fitch, gap stores or lily, eli lilly with the great myrl drug loss. paul schatz will be here. we'll discuss where you want to be buying in this market. by the way he is still bullish but extremely selective. we'll be right back. >> has it been 10 years? oh, yes it has, of "making money" and lots of it, charles payne. >> making america rich again, charles payne. congratulations on 10 years. >> indeed. (vo) what does it mean to be rich? maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number...

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her uncle's unhappy. i'm sensing an underlying issue. it's t-mobile. it started when we tried to get him under a new plan. but they they unexpectedly unraveled their “price lock” guarantee. which has made him, a bit... unruly. you called yourself the “un-carrier”.

you sing about “price lock” on those commercials. “the price lock, the price lock...” so, if you could change the price, change the name! it's not a lock, i know a lock. so how can we undo the damage? we could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity. their connection is unreal. and we could all un-experience this whole session. okay, that's uncalled for. ♪. charles: pop quiz time, folks. take a look at this. all right in the last year, which one of these has been the top performer? in fact i want you to rank, in the last year one through four, the best performing stocks of all of those. nvidia, lili, abercrombie & fitch and gap stores. you know gap stores, where his grandfather used to buy his jeans. here we go, number one, not even close, 500%, 500%, if you're listening on radio, i'm circling abercrombie & fitch. man, they got their act together. they started let everyone shop there, not just cute people. remember the old ceo.

second, nvidia, barely 150%. gap stores, 165%. lili with only up 92%. they have to try harder. the reason i put it up this. there are a lot of ways to make money in the stock market. i have to be honest with you, when you watch financial television you hear 10 stocks. this morning best buy, number one in the stock market. one said, because they lost money. spread observe haven't. same-store sales, down 6%. why did the stock go up. year ago they were down 12%. wall street sees the needle moving. here is the thing. that is how the market moves from time to time. i want to bring in heritage capital paul schatz because paul, you're a professional investor. for some investors it seems like bizarro world. how would you explain a best buy today, foot locker killing it, burlington killing it. yesterday it was chewy and

abercrombie and few others. some i know are great companies. dick's is great company. i think that is a great company. some are inconsistent. >> i can't say my wife went shopping then. one thing that is consistent about the companies you mentioned all their stocks were down in earnings. i would argue strongly that, people sold these stocks because they were worried about same-store sales, they were worried about the economy. when the news really wasn't as bad as forecast, shorts covered, and you had, that lift after earnings. charles: but is the moral of the story even a company that's not great can have a oversold stock? conversely even the best company in the world at some point that are stocks can be overvalued? >> yeah. look i mentioned this before, we're readying to sell nvidia. is that one of the best companies? sure. has it had amazing run this absolutely. do crummy companies have good earnings every once in a while. the key is when expectations

come in, or expectations are worse than what really happens in reality, stocks lift. charles: right. >> that is normal. we have shorts in the market, you have portfolio managers on the value, hey, let's take a shot. charles: i know you talked in your note about sentiment having gotten too high. one of reason we had the april pull back and. one thing i look at is the fear and greed index. we're going out of the neutral back into fear. we were in fear for a long time. this is not confidence. this is not cockiness. just, it feels like something has been missing from this rally during the may rally part that was there before the april pullback? >> sentiment matters most at extremes. so people, i think because of social media we've gotten so in touch and we're so on top of sentiment on a day-to-day, week to week basis but the fact of the matter when sentiment will move markets it has to be extreme. i know the dot-com bubble is a generational thing, maybe october, september of 2022 similarly but --

charles: you want to buy the dips. what i'm saying right now, even during may the oomph isn't there. >> of course it is not there. but look, you say nvidia sucked a lot out of market on that emotional reversal day. nvidia kept going up still has gone up but the rest of the stocks took a breather except today where you have four to one upside versus downside stocks but this is normal. sentiment got cooked. people buying too many calls. investor intelligence said too many bulls come off a little bit but not enough. this is normal progression in bull market cycle. charles: 30 seconds. you like one of the underdog stocks. you like under armour. gargantuan gap. says you got pretty good support here. why under armour now. >> i have a litany of reasons. charles: 30 second. >> ceo came back. cut number of offerings. streamline the company. fortress balance sheet. they have phenomenal free cash flow. former high flyer, if you

scrunch of the chart up it has been going sideways. i love those kind of stocks. it is tremendous value. charles: breaking 350 day moving average, looks up to the 200-day moving average it could be off to the races. >> also this day volume was enormous. i think it is largest volume in several years. look they pulled the rug out, this is perfect bear trap this month. charles: right. >> they pulled the rug out beneath september and beneath the april lows. you have a ton of longs out of the stock. i'm sure shorts came in and they reversed it now you're trying to lift. i'm usually a little bit early in this stuff but i love it. congrats on 10 years. charles: appreciate it. household respects fears are through the roof. i don't have to tell you that, danielle dimartino booth has been on top of unlike anyone else on the street. she will update us right after this. ♪

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charles: there is a debate about the strength of the consumer. economists and politicians on one side, you are outraged, you are upset about the interview i had earlier in the week. the average american so dumb they don't know how bad they have it. the majority of americans -- >> just reported in may. charles: four months in a row. >> we are asking consumers, they are okay. charles: no they are not. they are hurting pretty badly. when mcdonald's is a luxury they are hurting badly. my next guest looks at a lot of data. and let's start with something. and the spike.

with the historic correlation, >> typically what we see. it starts first among those who make the most money. they need to fire people. cutting costs. when mainstreet clues and, already in the suit, typically already in recession. if you slice and dice consumer confidence data the people who own stock market, they are happy, they've done the firing. the people who have been fired realizing we have to get a second job or do what we have to do to make ends need because it costs me a lot to get that loaf of bread. charles: folks own the stock market, older americans, makes it so intriguing get that reuters comes out with this

article about cruise liners, offering major discounts. it's really amazing to me. >> we are seeing discretionary spending. and that pullback on the american airlines side. summer bookings are not what we thought they would be. charles: they are getting hammered at the same time looking at charts for travel at all time highs. >> doesn't make sense but people are like they are getting financing and getting a jump on market. you have access to capital markets, you say some are bookings the best summer bookings are down at your fundamental business. try to fudge revenues, impossible. charles: missing on revenues

has been the deathknell. you get the jobs report coming up, the slippery slope comes in very well. you've got the chart here. >> job openings are almost where they were pre-pandemic, almost. we are seeing today we had 100 million, $100 billion shaved off of income. a second revision, 73 million in the fourth quarter. revisions keep telling us like summer of 2008 revisions keep telling us, here is reality, not imagining how bad it is. it's not in their head. charles: people know the economist, they figure it out. >> 400 phds, i used to work with them at the federal reserve. charles: before we go talking about the nation and opulence

and wealth, i'm calling this the with the economy. we keep borrowing more at higher rates and pay it back. look at what we learned about auto loans, average interest rate is 6.73% up from 6.6%, average interest rate on a used car is 12% up to 11. 4%. %. monthly payments for new cars, $730 for a used car. here's the shocker. 16% of all new vehicle loan payments are $1000 a month. speaking of wimpy, the big mac indicator getting an all time high, got to point out, high tax rates, absolutely devastating. it is unclear if they will pay back, wednesday could be tomorrow. i say that as i handed to liz