this is like the insurance conversation does biden get lucky, we will see. taylor: we will continue the conversation. you left me stunned let's not be stunned when we go to the ma market, you are getting stocks mostly lowered to start the month, tech tried to pop into the green a lot of positive news about nvidia, amd ramping up to one year cycle unveiling the rubin platform as soon as 2026. check continuing to be the leader on the big days, the dow and s&p not so much coming off the record highs. i like amd versus nvidia, there is a competition to happen everybody has their money on nvidia but everybody wants to be the king of the hill. do you know who the king of the hill is at charles: hey, good afternoon, everyone. this is making money and i'm charles payne.

the market had a real strong statement on friday and intraday reversal and that statement is being torn to shreds and confusion reigns and more investors are buying nvidia or seeking the nearest box and those are the only two options and seeking confusion, we began 2024 looking for rate cuts and saying forget about it now. maybe there's too much enthusiasm and asking all of them today and plus jessica will lay out her case and spotting the turn to the downside. they can be harsh and cruel so you want to know the signals. then my take on the middle class getting squeezed no matter what the economists are saying. we know better. all that and more on making money. charles: i want to start with friday's session and it was really remarkable in so many ways and bias throughout last

week was to the downside and of course when the market opened friday, we were up and then started going down and figured, okay, that's his little tale her and something interesting happened and we started going down. selling begets selling and i thought at one point, maybe the only thing that would stop it would be the closing bell and 50-day moving average and market found footing and turned much higher. really put in a really amazing session and ironically, only thing that stop it had from going up even higher maybe because buying begets buying was the closing bell. the one day one week and this is friday's session. value, value worked out very, very well and small cap value, mid cap and large cap and for the same week, value outperformed and large cap growth did not. large cap growth got hammered and general growth under a lot of pressure and let's be honest.

it's not even close. year-to-date momentum and thinking momentum and hot stocks for no particular reason and in this case, we have to admit, the names that make up momentum are other names that are making up the money and nvidia, apple, microsoft, you know the names are household names and they're making all the money and everyone is pouring into them. remember, even the best stocks can become overprized at some point and the question is, when it comes to concentration and how much concentration can be hurting the value names or just skewing opportunities elsewhere. meanwhile for folks who are mapping on a couple of rate cut this is year. they're saying it's time to give up the coast. this is a cover that current magazine and i must say, you know, for maybe three or four

weeks overwhelmingly everything is disappointed and manufacturing pmi and miss consensus and we've got overall economy continuing to grow and it's growing slower whereas manufacturing is contracting faster and don't want to see that happening. on one hand, the economic data is looking soft and weak and i want to show you one more thing, construction. i keep thinking these construction numbers will be phenomenal. another construction miss. yeah, down here is manufacturing and that was the only thing that was up. everything else negative numbers. lodging, office, commercial, healthcare, educational, religious institutions, all areas that you would expect maybe we can see something happening, nothing is happening. let's bring in bob dahl. bob, technics calling an outside day and lowers lower than the prior session and high was higher than prior session and climbed off the canvas into a weekend and seemed really

impressive till about two hours ago. >> no question about it and outside days are very converse y'all and the up days and down days are bearish and it's not a good track record and i think you pointed out discussing doesn't wantals a few moments ago and the economy was weakening and increasing pieces of it are weakening and that's causing this rotation on the market and this sloppiness more of which is likely to follow. the ironic thing on manufacturing and only thing that was up on construction is manufacturing and how do you make of the numbers that are decidedly missing consensus and

manufacturing side and showing a lot of contraction in the economy. >> it's not just lowering consumers and middle income consumers are struggling and the upper end can't do it alone and need the mid to make it happen and that's weakening too. we'll have more economic weakness and doesn't mean a recession is necessary but we'll see more sloppiness. charles: this is a mad mindset to have that, you know, if the economy is great, good for earnings and the economy isn't so great, the fed will step in. >> that's been the montra as you know and it's worked pretty well. i'm wondering will both sides

get disappointed and that's the economy weakening and at the same time inflation stays sticky and that's not one against the i can't lose and it's dominating this year. charles: how do fo folk preceden this environment? proceed in this environment? cash, bonds? >> i don't lose the fact that momentum has a life of its own. you pointed out that early. we're in a momentum-driven market and predicting end of momentum is a fool's game. you've got to play till momentum running out of steam and make sure what you own you're careful about. meaning earnings predictability, earnings persistence and good cash flow and those stocks worked fine on the upside and if we get any kind of pullback of those stocks, they'll go down less. charles: all right, bob, as usual, love your wisdom,

particularly on a day like today. i thought our conversation was going to be hey, man, maybe that was the turn, summer rally. ride the wave, don't guess the wave but also understand the waters are going to get a little choppy, we got you. thank you, man. >> stay tuned. i wcharles: now i want to bringn cameron dawson. this is the chart of all charts. sticky super core. okay, yeah, you know, you've got folks saying inflation is coming down, don't worry, but here's the thing, this super core number is huge. i look at spike in that, i'm wondering why the conversation isn't one the fed will hike and not cut next.

a lot of up tick driven by car insurance. charles: why is that so good? i can hear people say, this is what bothers me and a lot of viewers, how come we can willy nilly that part. it's all about home insurance. going for them and consumer spending and companies are having to be more budget restraint and there's weighing of inflation on consumer spending. charles: we had a bunch of economic data and all disappointing and the big shocker last week and chicago business barometer and this chart doesn't even do it justice. this was an ugly move down and you note it had also in your report, what does this say to

you when the economic data points start to come in and not only dismissing consensus but in this case down a lot? >> it is eye popping because it challenges the narrative of this ultra resilient growth. the reason why barrons is talking alaska the fed not cuts and growth has gone up and 2.5% for 2024 gdp and if data comes in weaker and pmis today and pmis came in weaker from a growth standpoint and new orders were weak and a big spike in higher prices and maybe stagflation light. charles: that was the kind of equation not long ago that, you know, oil prices were lowered and >> that's pricing in that

bad news is bad news and have people exit stocks and again, you're going to fight to safety and we think bad news is bad news is still the right way to have economic data and growth expectations are so high. there's no room for recession or data points. charles: great point. i talked about this show and thought it was phenomenal and talking about broadening of the rally and more are participating and we were really up there and cmiii and 80% of the last year and at all time high and this dip, the market dip and market went back to all time high and nowhere near last dip participation and doesn't seem like that would be good for the rally. >> it's not good and there's so

many stocks sitting on the rally and not saying there's not still opportunities and we'd like to see broader participation and you can see in the equal weight of s&p 500 last week and hit a relative new low. charles: it's nuts. >> it's nuts and so much sector concentration and to your point, the names 25 thanksgiving are big are the ones making the money. if you look at equal weight earnings revision and they're down and analysts are cutting estimates and s&p 500 earnings and vision are down and nvidia and microsoft and big heavyweights lifting earnings. charles: that's the consumption that 493 of the non-mag seven names are going to pull their own weight earning wise and that's a hell of assumption at the economy and in 2025,

earnings growth and mag 7 decelerate and nvidia going from 127% growth and 50% growth and market overall is expected to see much faster growth implying the market thinks 493 will carry. we're not so sure. charles: not so sure. great stuff. charles: consumes are dipping into saving ands make ends meet and how long can that last? give you something to think about. we'll discuss when we return. ♪ (vo) what does it mean to be rich? maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number... and more about discovering magic. rich is being able to keep your loved ones close.

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it's t-mobile. it started when we tried to get him under a new plan. but they they unexpectedly unraveled their “price lock” guarantee. which has made him, a bit... unruly. you called yourself the “un-carrier”. you sing about “price lock” on those commercials. “the price lock, the price lock...” so, if you could change the price, change the name! it's not a lock, i know a lock. so how can we undo the damage? we could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity. their connection is unreal. and we could all un-experience this whole session. okay, that's uncalled for. charles: my next guest knows that consumer spending increased more sharply than incomes, which means of course we've been dipping into our saving ands she says that's not tentable. i want to bring in economist

>> it worries me the pace of the cooling and doesn't look soft and will it be orderly or could it stop short of a recession. >> the fed is outspoken time and time again and planning to change rates so much so they're planning to change their language and there's three baskets of inflation, services, goods, sheller and the other two. so from that perspective, even if job growth slows, therefore even if wage inflation slows, it doesn't necessarily mean bad news for markets and might give powell what he's looking for, which is the excuse to finally start cuts rates.

charles: i'm on the same page with you this. i do believe that jay powell, i listen very closely at fmc meetings and two meetings ago, he brought up the shocker to jobs and without even asking about it twice. he brought it up again last time. the magic number is 4.1% and on friday we were 4.1% and usc bets on fed cutting to go up exponentially. what do you think? >> that's a really fair point and it's clear that powell wants to cut rates and it's clear that look at where rate expectations are and markets are all around all time highs.

charles: anneka, how about earnings expectations and too ambitious and i had a great conversation with cameron dawson about how much of the stock market is going to have notion and booming earnings later in the year, but if earnings expectations are too lofty right now, does that mean the stock market could be too lofty? that's your separated from skepticism hat and on the other hand, all the economists are wearing the skeptical hats quarter after quarter after quarter and getting it wrong. earnings held up stronger than expected and economy held up stronger than expected, and these really large companies that are carrying everything along, they're posting really good earnings and they're

constantly innovating and it's hard to fight that, but you have to constantly remain cautious and do your homework and understand what's going on inside companies and how realistic those expectations might be. charles: look at tax call outlook and ex-weties are neutral -- equities are neutral there and underweight and overweight government bonds with the sense here and yields are going to start going here and welcome at states of yields prefer the shorter duration and take on duration resident and can very far out if you don't need to. and the point is if you look at term that you're making on two year, three year, five year

treasury versus return on equities and that risk reward and bonds is just really attractivity. it's just as sip million as that and equity risk premium that we like to talk about all the time. and can sleep better at night. talk again soon. thank you, love your work. >> thank you, bye. charles: is copper the new gold? we have a guest that thinks so and grab a pen and pad. we'll lay it out.

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charles: it's been kind of rough sledding for technology companies not named nvidia. last week particularly was horrific as some of the biggest and most popular names in tech were slammed after they post the results. take a look at this. salesforce.com and i can't think of a more popular company on wall street and my next guest

acknowledges there's concerns and the burger bedroom and managing director dan flats. one thing as you've been on this tech thing long before almost everyone this. is your beat. you've been in front of them and made people a lot of money and start showing concerns and i want to hear them and share them with the audience and growth and cyclical head winds and impacting head winds. >> we saw with salesforce results and what's going to matter with salesforce and others like going and will one example and amazon and ewe need to be able to innovate play offense and push your business forward and having costs in places. charles: inflation. going along with that as well. >> it does. we've seen inflation moderate

and costs are higher than they were prior to the pan bedroom ick and all the companies here with the price and at the end of the day, you'll have to find new ways to create value. charles: felt like that was obliterating and that's going down with rates and that's how much of a concern right now. >> ecommerce business and cost of capital is higher and looking at companies and google, apple, they have fortress balance sheets and the growth next year and geopolitics and more above trade policy or we've got a new for instance new president of mexico. we'll have new or more here in

this country and there's going to be more in terms of pressure from either man who -- gentleman running for president. >> i think we've seen for the last several years through two administrations and i think through the balance of the decade and beyond, this bifurcation with china and dual supply chains being built and raises cost and brings down efficiency for companies and i do think though that all of these or many of the companies are now able to navigate in a world with tariffs, friction, constant changes from policymakers on all sides of atlantic and the pacific. charles: nvidia, they've got -- i think someone went to 1550 on it. do you have a number? >> we have substantial upside and can't give you a target and seeing continued execution on the product road map and announcement of rubin for 2026 and key for the cloud companies and nvidia and customers are a road map that enables them to build on top of it.

ramifications for the economy and charles: going for qualcomm and qualcomm going to pop up here and it's attracting more an life-threatenings and what's going on there that, you know, you can see something is going in terms of higher target and bye ratings. >> qualcomm from a low power per spect and i have processing security and automation and incredibly well positioned in my view over the next couple of years. charles: i love qualcomm and go back and it's the ultimate, you know, just david and goliath

story and no one thought he'd make it and keep innovating and continuing and ride this wave out and the bottom line and bit of a bump in the road and don't fret it too much. >> you see better growth driven by inno nation, charles. charles: thank you so much. appreciate it. folks, forget about earnings and ratio and my next guest is your real risk with respect to the ai story and price through energy and different kind of pe. i want to bring in options and play directive education and product jessica. ai, real price to power energy and talk about that. >> yeah, there's innovation happening with nvidia and the new chip and something new we're hearing every single day. charles: every day. >> what we need to think about is earnings are justified and those opportunities, microsoft,

alphabet, amazon hyper-scalers are nvidia customers and see pe valuations being justified and so much pressure on the grid and it's a major head wind that's coming towards us that i need to be cognizant of and the viewers need to be cognizant of. charles: price to energy resident and can outdated infrastructure and growing demand and limited supply expansion and challenges renewable energy and i'm really worried about bureaucracy messing this up because we have an old power grid and we're trying to force renewables in there and war on fossil fuels and the price of energy and us blowing this thing. >> absolutely. you're not wrong and definitely fiscal implications to be cognizant of and numbers with nvidia blackwell and gpus not coming to market and estimations are about 1.8 gig watts and we only produce 1.2. that's to 2027, 1.8.

there's not enough energy available for what's being promised. >> think of all the structural grid pressure social security creating. charles: talking about energy thing and fop popular conversation for about a month and crew 'tilties have become a de facto growth segment but today they're getting crushed >> it's certainly maybe notecases for correlation and looking at xlu today for utility sector and seeing what was going

on. we are hitting a serious form of resistance and i think this was just a cyclical selloff back into some of the names. >> all of this requires copper and it's all function of supply and demand ask there's a demand and need to create the supply and room for etfs and copper mine exposures and more efficient nuclear energies that are going to take long tore get into place and >> we don't have enough supply and needy verseification to get this. charles: i'm going to switch gears for a minute. jay powell, looking for clues into his next move and you did a

deep dive and you looked into 2019, 2020. what's it told you about the next big move or direction move for the fed? >> i think there are cracks in the consumer and we're seeing that everywhere and i think what's interest asking the treasury supply and hi-def sits and funded on the high end of the curve and that demand is coming from the fed he said on the last meeting and watching the stress it has on those money markets and that stress that happened in 2019, 2020 was around the quarterly tax payments in addition to the treasury options and dealers taking on a lot of inventory and another date of june 17th it's little indications that he tends to say and leads to that and clues and insights for his cutting. charles: that's week the option

hads a really dell tear yous impact on st stocks and they wee not well received and dealers ate more than they wanted and stress with respect to foreign buyers and this is becoming real big issue and maybe powell has no control over. >> yeah, it's certainly interesting. a lot to see. charles: good stuff, jessica. >> always great, charles. charles: no rate cut before the election. ho dough you play that? he's got you covered right after this. ♪ [thunder rumbles] ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently.

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and so bond yields are coming down and what you want and bond yields to come down and why aren't stocks coming down and scripts no rate cuts not before the election and the ceo. would this be for political reasons or just not a lack of enough data to justify it? >> i'm not getting into political but from a statistical, cpi running from 0.3 to 0.4% year-to-date and like in october and q4 2023 and saw 0.1 or 0.2 reading ands the fed sees consecutive point and ideally 0.1 readings, they won't feel the confidence to cut rates and won't expect that maybe at all in 2024, we'll see. charles: what we've got recently

and we're too far from the 2% target and you're suggesting this. >> we keep buying and we believe and the revenue and whole calendar year and there's profits in the monarchy haves exceed what had they made in the last 30 years and since inception and this is extraordinary first start and 2.8 trillion company and we want to see something like this again and it's a opportunity that people shouldn't miss.

>> charles: tool total enterprise value and forward revenue into tv, four cash flows and four cp irks. >> that's important and examples like forcing them to be valuations and got ahead of themselves and year-to-date and in some cases, companies are unable to meet and exceed expectations like nvidia and some cases they're not. these statistics here show you if -- even in a good environment when growth is going higher, that's fine to have an elevated forward pe ratio and environment where growth is coming down, we don't want to see that. charles: and in 1984, you're too young to remember this, there was a group called banana rama and called a song cruise ever. you're report ago choppy summer.

big ticket purchasing being deferred and not looking choppy and more ominous than choppy. >> well, at the same time, gdp growth coming down is also going to be viewed as bullish sign. charles: someone earlier said sign of soft landing. >> exactly. we need to see that. that's why you have microeconomic forces, mixed microeconomic forces that have been viewed in different ways and then a counter balancing impact on the direction of the market so it's really a conflicted market that we have. charles: it is a conflicted market and you have the bifurcated market and my concern, i have less than a minute to go and i keep saying this, i feel like we get the gradual signs of slowing but we're going to all of a sudden fall after the cliff. there's a series of economic data that comes in really awful and of course the fed will rush to cut rates, but historically

it says when the fed cuts rates and being forced because of economic emergency, the stock market goes down, not up. >> well, i hope we contested say that. i want to be the optimist but at the same time we don't want a 9-7 sensorineural mario and gdp comes down and inflation remains high. we need to be careful and see we get cpi on next wednesday and we need to see that now. charles: what are you looking for this week? >> friday. let's see. i hope it stays at 3.9 and that's a psychological level and see how the market reacts. charles: yeah, be interesting if bad news was bad news and good news is good news. >> we'll see. charles: see you soon. thank you. income on the upward rise in the country but the middle class is shrinking. unfortunately not everyone has graduated to the upper income. many economists have this wrong. you know and i know. i'll devil more into this when n

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especially from capital management, fox business contributor gary kaltbaum. what are you seeing that makes this a discussion to have right now. >> certain areas we are scanning the whole thing and while we own nvidia and qualcomm we are watching everything economically sensitive getting blasted and were not talking about fly-by-night and looking at parker hannifin, united rentals, caterpillar looks like a big talk, dear, the transports, building and construction, i think there are areas if not real bearish in you wonder if we could wake up in the economy is falling off the ledge. if the market has good eyes were starting to see it here i don't think it's by accident that we

have a 1.3% gdp and i'm wondering what's next and what we see right now i don't know one spot that's not economically sensitive and until it changes a good a stay as far away as possible. >> those are great points will construction spending today in the manufacturing side was up but a lot of money poured into their but every other category of construction was down and they should be doing well in their poured in to build stuff in the transportation and everyone going on these troops something feels wrong what role does the valuation play the higher their beginning to come back to earth. >> evaluation is always going to matter the s&p is trading at 24 times earnings and i'm thinking

wait a minute, it's been doing 16 - 18 forever, and right the second. even though opec says they're not raising production yields are plunging to, things can change, i'm open to changes look what happened on friday the last half of the hour and what we see in stocks i'm staying with the strength, my biggest position is nvidia and that's what we did at the beginning of the year, qualcomm and a couple of other things, after that watching real closely i will know things are

getting in trouble, remembers semiconductors are economically sensitive if they start getting them in a meaningful fashion which is held up great because of a.i. and rethinking something more of corrective work. >> less than a minute to go have you raised cash i guess you raising cash at this particular point. >> we had crowdstrike and we sold that in the nick of time before they imploded the software stocks and we sold microsoft because of software. we have a lot of cash right now and will look for leadership there is good-looking stocks out there, eli lilly asked well domino's, chipotle until today we are actively looking but were letting you know narrower is coming to mind especially on the economic front, my eyes are wide open right now. liz: friday we had an intraday reversal into the weekend it

could've been a buy signal but maybe it was epic. today it's all gone and ironically, we should be up a sound by yields and were not may be bad news is bad news, where in the world yet again we appreciate you walking us through it all, thank you so much my friend. this is an election year were going to hear about the middle class and well within today's conversation we start talking about the economically sensitive stocks getting hammered, that is because the middle class is getting hammered, the middle class says it suggested a lot since 1971, more americans with upper income, here is the reality more americans with lower income meanwhile income for the upper-class or the upper income cohort so to speak, dave increased at a faster rate than the middle and low-income sections of our economy, more recently we had to spike the service economy everyone spending money going to

restaurants, taking trips that is for higher job gains but those earning less than 55000, these used to be derogatory term about jobs at the fast food restaurant, those of the most pain jobs out there, consequently the lower income workers have seen a greater percentage gain in income but never confuse that with great wage gains overall and moreover income is only 20% of hous households, your wages are only 40%, you have folks were self-employed a lot of folks with the gig jobs, business, welfare payments and the money comes from different sources, the middle class and you're trying to keep up with the current action that has not been that great, they own homes and stocks and that's a reality that most economists don't know what you know all too well attended over to liz claman. liz: kardashians, just say their name.