>> welcome back but one thing you need to know ahead of next week the big bank set second-quarter earnings season j.p. morgan, citigroup, wells fargo are reported for the bell on friday. second quarter reports overall expected to be solid with consensus estimates calling for more than 9% jump in the s&p 500 eps growth from second quarter of last year. they get tech healthcare, financials, energy, utilities all expected to show strong earnings per share. lpl financial says good earnings news may delay the s&p 500 pullback that were probably overdue f for. we'll be watching it all on foxbusiness. that was it for us here. thank you so much for joining us. have a wonderful fourth of july weekend, we will see you next time. >> barron's roundtable sponsored by global x. ♪ ♪

♪ ♪ ♪ welcome to barron's roundtable will we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead. i am jack hough important jack otter. coming up junior jobs coming in higher than expected we got hit with another wave of her visions. finance professor jeremy siegel has insight on health of the labor market what it all means for the economy and later cramming in the popcorn while watching for a sinema revival. summer movie season is off to a hot start with its first major hit. this is theaters desperately try to reel in more revenue with other big blockbusters on the way. but we beyond our expert panel and three things investors ought to be thinking about right now on the barron's roundtable at my colleague >>, elizabeth o'brien and jacob. ben, i'll start with you a short july 4 week what happened with stocks, bonds, hotdogs, whatever

you can tell me about pickups which are dispelled when but there's no such thing as a stock market. what we have our seven big tech stocks and they are going up or you have that nasa going up three to half% to a new high smp going up 2% and hitting a new high they have the 2000 small-cap stocks it fell did not hit a new heino are close to it that's all there to the market right now. big tech goes up, everything else who cares and that is what we've got piglets s&p 500 fund holders are geniuses who saw it all coming hi and everything else but even if the jobs numbers from friday good, bad or neutral? >> they leaned kind of negative here the headline and number it was a great it was up about 16000 jobs but then you look at the revision they knocked off about 100,000 for previous months and that's not quite a wash. get the unemployment rising to 1.4% bond yields dropping the bond market may or may not be starting to worry about the economy. it's not a great number. cook something for everyone to

love are not love it sounds like earnings season coming up. what are you watching question rick what you expect? it's a solid earnings season expect to see earnings grow 8.8% year-over-year even the second half of the year is expected to be good to be can expect a seat nice guidance and companies but they better come through that guidance because so many stocks have gone up this year not based on their fundamentals but solely based on people buying them. that is because her valuations to rise in the stocks seem to have the earnings can support that we need to be watching pepsi, delta some of the big banks like j.p. morgan. the numbers really need to be good. >> you are suggesting this the company seem to actually make more money to justify these prices. they cannot just keep going up because are going up is that right? access are big tech stocks but then who no space. >> elizabeth hurricane putting aside the human toll is this something investors should be concerned about? >> yes. have not seen any measurable impacts yet but from investors point of view we should be looking about its impact

potential impact on insurers like allstate, on energy companies like exxon's oil production is potentially effective in the gulf coast. also, on the positive side home and permit stores like low's and home depot could get a boost his people prepare for the storm and rebuild. jena publicly traded generator maker there even is the severity of this hurricane season in their marketing materials. >> a marketing blitz. we have talked before how crazy homeowner insurance has gotten in some storm prone markets. i ai am a what it was the effecs going to be on house prices? at house prices get hit at markets where it's more expensive are more difficult to get insurance? >> if insurance cost a fortune then those homes are not going to sell or sell for big discount get this my friend in new orleans paid $17000 a year for a policy has 25000-dollar deductible. tell me that's not going to affect her ability to sell down the road. >> that is difficult piglets on bigger bigger factor people

relocate and move to an retirement potentially. >> written i say what is the house price? what is the mortgage rate? one of my property taxes in the future you may say what's insurance look like that i get for that question revokes absolute people are flocking to florida it is out of state income tax. the homeowner's costs are going to potentially offset that. >> jacob i've seen wall street commentary about weakening restaurant trends when using there? >> you look at the sitdown restaurants you're getting more expensive three-course meals and things like that and thinking out back steakhouse blumer global owns ihop and applebee's revenue is basically fine and dine friends is up year-over-year because of inflation. because of prices. their traffic is down mcdonald's on the large cap side talked about why inflation and higher rates are now starting to impact the consumer. it is not happen overnight is certain to happen now. the larger fast food chains have to do a little bit of discounting here and there that is better for the profit

margins. >> 5-dollar value meal at mcdonald's the new offering that everyone is seeing. not every restaurant is struggling right now. which ones are shining and what he think they're doing right question. >> triple tasting it out to me. when you go between the low price restaurants that cater to more of the low income households and then you go the blueprints a full course of three-course meals, right in between travolta and kava they're not so expensive their traffic is declining traffic is growing. what does everybody know what kava is? that's that newly public it's a mediterranean food progress in ministering style traffic is growing they do not have to discounting because the right n the sweet spot you can get a meal for 20 bucks they are growing and adding restaurants and the digital capabilities are really quite good. >> thank you all. jude jobs coming in a higher than expected. but a big wave of her vision showed the numbers may not be telling the whole story. morton finance professor jeremy

siegel on where the labor market goes from here, next. to me, harlem is home. but home is also your body. i asked myself, why doesn't pilates exist in harlem? so i started my own studio. getting a brick and mortar in new york is not easy. chase ink has supported us from studio one to studio three. when you start small, you need some big help. and chase ink was that for me. earn up to 5% cash back on business essentials with the chase ink business cash card from chase for business. make more of what's yours.

cooks june jobs report showing a still strong but cooling labor market. it came in hotter than expected we are contending to get hit with revisions of the economy added $206,000 along the estimate but down from may's revised 218,000. the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1% per that the highest level in nearly three years joining me now morton finance professor jeremy siegel. professor when you make of the jobs numbers this past week and where's the economy headed? >> it showed some weakness really. 4.1% we are up a half a

percentage point or more from the low. actually in the past that has been a warning for a slowdown that leads to a recession. i am not saying we are getting there. the downward revisions, the composition of the gains a lot of it in government and of course healthcare. i think we are seeing quite a slowdown in the economy. >> how long can the fed go without rate cuts before the market gets rattled? >> i would like it sooner rather than later. minimum i think jay powell has to tee it up on the july 31 meeting for september. and by the way for get a good report and further weakness i would not mind a 25 basis point cut this month. >> a bond market does not seem too terribly worried about the sustainability of the federal debt and deficits.

are you worried? >> and no i am actually not worried. i looked at the debt trends they do not really get bad for quite a few years. mid- 2030s is when they start ramping up. right now if you take a look at the debt to gdp ratio and take out the foreign held debt which is holding steady we are really quite in the middle range of all other countries in the world and still well below where we were at the end of world war ii. i'm not saying i'm happy with a deficit but i do not think there's going to be a major factor for yields in the next few years. >> stock market concentration is the highest in decades a lot of artificial intelligence is that a good thing or a bad thing going forward? >> i like ai. it's very promising. but i do not like all of that concentration. we have had one of the biggest gaps between the top performing

stocks and the rest of the market in history that has a generally again served as a warning sign. i really do not think we can get the small stocks or value stocks and moving until jay powell does cut those rates. quick to say if i am worried about the nvidia, microsoft and what comes next for them what do i do to diversify? where should i be looking right now? >> is a real question is long-run/short run for the long run is what the stocks are still questioning tech stocks are as we say delivering the bacon. they are coming in with earnings but the bars are high. it's going to be very important for us to look at the earnings season which is of course right upon us to see exactly what people think. by the way the first half of this year gdp looks like it's going to be below 2% which is actually below the fed forecast in december of last year.

we could stand to lower those very high short-term rates to give a boost to the economy and the second half their way back when people used to watch for a rotation to value stocks that used to say better diversify and overseas markets do not put all your eggs and so on and so on. so let u.s. large-cap growth doing well are those themes still important should i be diversifying their now? >> a problem with foreign markets as we go outside the u.s. you are in was called a value shop. those growth stocks 80 or 90% are in the u.s. actually the rest of international stocks are not performing much worse than the value stocks in the u.s. so until you get value going that is the only time you're really going to get the international going. i think europe has done pretty well japan is doing quite well.

their valuations are much much deeper than the u.s. i still have positions in them but you've got to be patient for. >> thank you professor jeremy siegel. lex thank you, jack. >> and box office raking in over $1 billion after its first big blockbuster of the summer but theaters still need more rear ends in seats which afflicts might do the trick, next. choose advil liqui-gels for faster, stronger and longer-lasting relief than tylenol rapid release gels because advil targets pain at the source of inflammation. so for faster pain relief, advil the pain away.

- there's no book with all the answers when it comes to raising children, but any book can give them a head start. studies show that reading to your kids ten minutes a day can improve their memory and concentration. so pick a book--any book-- and read. >> the theater, anxieties giving the way dejoy. inside out to raking in over $1 billion so far despite a quiet year at the box office. in candy terms oak 2024 be a good and plenty with lots of whoppers and hot tamales? or are we headed for a sour

patch and turn to milk duds? [laughter] i will start with the. [laughter] what is making inside to a success? >> pixar found that winning formula with these human emotions disney owns a pixar which made the first insight out one and inside out and this insight out to which of the first movie to hit a billion cents a barbie breathing life into what started out to be a lackluster movie season. it is a good sign for theaters appeared quick doesn't bode well for the movie business more broadly? what that shows people will show up for movies they're excited about. people know they will be able to stream inside to on this a plus for $14 a month but they're spending that on their ticket plus more concessions there inviting their friends, my son went out to sea with a bunch of his friends this week they enjoyed it. if a communal experience. i do not know people are dressing up as the emotions like they dressed up for barbie but

either way it's a good sign. >> by that i asked each of you before the show which inside out one or two character you identify with most? i believe you have a graphic here's what he told elizabeth you are joy, no surprises there were jacob, you are forgot or bobby cannot remember him ironically then you are anxiety our money was on and i chose anger mostly because i admire his bold choice of support short sleeve dress shirts. then do you agree with elizabeth movie industry optimism and which releases are watching fo? three weeks ago i would've said no but since with it inside out to we've also had another this is a prequel a quiet place and date one lesson a lot better than expected despicable me for comment that ascent really well so far is expected hit over $100 million over this long holiday weekend. so we can ignore things like kevin costner's horizon and american saga it looks like it's going to be a stinker.

>> and kevin costner kill cowboy movies or just kill kevin costner movies question because he killed kevin customers to be made the mistake of not making a baseball play that's all anybody want to see kevin costner do. with these other movies, and we have dead pull over and we have twisters, we have gladiator too, we have beetlejuice, we also have a second milano. if you can sense a theme here these are sequels but if they can deliver the goods i am looking at the second milano movie and probably the dead pool and wolverine this being the big hits there. you can keep the box office going too. >> what you think it means for studio stocks? >> you look at disney personal and benches mention deadpool. disney has a great library of content in his head for decades and decades and decades. they have that going forward that company mentioned on the last earnings call it can build off of that and do it sequels and sequels are pretty profitable. more profitable did not require marketing spend because you already know the idea is about going forward is going help the

profitability of a streaming business because i'm trying to use netflix the death star show business appointment in the legacy players can keep up on free cash flow and content spending, what you think? >> is going be tough to keep up but disney is a huge company profitable tons of cash but disney has to do is get to this. billions of dollars of investment probably price wars here and there which we have seen in the past few years in terms of streaming. they're eventually going to to profitability but they are going to get to like 10% operating margins and the next few years and netflix is at 26% is going to be tough. >> at disney is a well position from cash flow positions at the merchandising comes at the park's comments got cruises more than doubling his cruise line capacity of the next few years. that's good for a diversification point of view. >> we touched on studio stocks, ben. what you think this means for movie theater stocks? if you are cinemark this is great your stock is up 53% this we don't have to wait for 2025

were getting some good movies this year. if you are a.m. see pickwick study mean trade versus what's going on at theaters? >> they are doing okay businesswise they are taking market share and whatnot. the problem is that of a massive debt load they have to pay back the mean trade is help on that front it allows them to buy back or pay off some of that debt and to refinance some of it. they still need cash flow to come through so they can pay the debt down. it's going to take a good rest of this year end a fantastic 2025 for that to happen burke i work ihear that paramount deal k on. initially there were concerns it was a sweetheart deal for red cent is a new deal any better for shareholders? >> it's better for red stone. all this has been reported by the likes of the wall street journal but supposedly there may be more protections for her in case shareholders sue over the deal. this kind of seems like a last resort kind of deal. paramount is not doing well it is a fraction. i think it's about a 10 billion

cap which is 18 billion for warner bros. discovery in it's not doing great. they really just seem to get deal done >> quickly tell me one upcoming movie you might see pickwick so to see the crow i liked the first on them all for golf movies with a lot of action for quick smile to i love to scare myself. [laughter] elizabeth? >> what it looks like a fitting. >> the greenwich progress request exactlyyes. looks charming. okay i might see deadpool and wolverine. they say those two cannot be killed but let's have the box office does. thank you all. coming up elisabeth and jacob have a pair stock ideas and ben is going to nerd out for for ex- fans of the dollar trade. stay right there. t different. (fisher investments) we are. we have a team of specialists not only in investing, but also also in financial and estate planning and more. (other money manager) your clients rely on you for all that? (fisher investments) yes. and as a fiduciary,

we always put their interests first. (other money manager) but you still sell commission -based products, right? (fisher investments) no. we have a simple management fee structured so we do better when our clients do better. (other money manager) huh, we're more different than i thought! (fisher investments) at fisher investments, we're clearly different.

♪ ♪ let's nerd out on this one together. there is a hot new currency trade called the g10 kerri tell us about it. >> wall street loves easy ways to make my there's no easier way than borrowing in one low rate in buying any higher yielding bond it's great. normally this requires a lot of risk you borrow in something like the yen and you buy a brazilian bond or refine it mexican peso bond at some point blows up with these days what they are doing is borrowing in the yen in buying u.s. dollar. this is a great. she tries to take the risk of being in mexico brazil or in debt you are in the u.s. what's great about this as well as the dollar just keeps going up. not only are you make an extra 5% interest on this, you are also watching your currency appreciate. this is what wall street loves and it's great until something happens that causes the dollar to drop and other rates to go up but here's hoping it's not the

new peso progress is not the new peso. >> by the way it's not just for ex- tx traders who are cashing n this trip from the u.s. to japan are booming right now prices in japan in dollar terms are down one third from five years ago. so book your trip spread jacob, give us a stock that you like that's not the sneaker company that's in different this is what you like question. >> the chipmaker vegas a bulk of its revenue comes from selling chips to automakers that's why the stock is down double digits from its all-time high because the auto business has slowed down significantly production about flat year-over-year. that's showing signs of turning the corner at this point all the producers are going to need a few more chips when you go a long term in the clinic's five -- six -- seven years on shells to vehicle makers us are at higher prices they have higher margins earnings go way up the company buys back stock. >> elizabeth you're almost

dressed in blue oval color from fort it's because you like ford stock? what else you like about them question. >> what's right and left general motors the sales are up at both analyst expects for ford to close the gap trimming spending and focusing on shareholder dividends forgot you told me you are a nondriving new yorker but if you had to buy a ford f150 the lightning went electric on those fancy tesla cyber trucks and ben is paying you do not do about the costs w cost which whu taking? not the cyber truck i'm going with the ford absolutely buried cyber trucks are goofy. >> ven, elizabeth, jacob thank you altered to read more check out this week's edition of barron's.com. that is all for us, see you next week on barron's roundtable. -(theme music playing) -♪ bad boys -♪ whatcha want, whatcha want ♪ -♪ whatcha gonna do -hey! hey! whoa! -♪ when sheriff john brown come for you? ♪ -officer: you better stop...