lauren: 14,344. >> i am feeling the vibe from lauren. 13,320 miles. stuart: the longest walkable route without using a boat. i'm going with 12-two. the answer is 14-three. you could technically walk from cape town, south africa all the way to northeast russia. you have to cross multiple war zones it will take a long time. coast-to-coast starts now. neil: today, we will no, not whether joe biden will survive as the democrats presidential nominee, that old tussle

continues which i'm talking about jerome powell on capitol hill and whether we will see those interest rate cuts. i am neil cavuto, markets are glued to powell. to hillary vaughan on what he is saying with markets moving. >> reporter: if democrats were hoping for a sign they may get hail mary boost from an interest rate cut before the election, jerome powell today is not dropping any hint about what could come, telling lawmakers he's not going to signal any huger actions on interest rates but said of the labor market took a dip, they might have to pivot. >> we want to see more good inflation data and strong labor market. those things are equal under the law. >> if unemployment trends upper you must protect americans jobs.

workers have too much to lose if there's a completely unnecessary recession. >> reporter: powell admitted the economy is slowing down but when asked about bidenomics, he passed on the question when he got tossed a hot potato. >> our economy is slowing, is it not? >> yes, though growing at a solid pace. >> our unemployment rate is rising, is it not? >> yes but the market is still strong. >> the labor market is slowing, is it not? >> most people, if you ask them to define bidenomics, they would say that's easy, we get to pay more, live worse. >> i wouldn't touch. a sentence with that word in it. >> reporter: janet yellen is

testifying, she was asked by a lawmaker if she noticed any cognitive decline in the president. she said she thinks the president has been effective in meeting she's been in with biden and there's been no talk of invoking the 25th amendment to remove him. neil: thank you for that. the chairman and managing director, one of the things i was trying to glean from jerome powell is stuff he said in between, talking about the risk of holding rates higher for too long. that is a palpable danger. i got the impression he doesn't want to invite that. i don't know if that signals a rate cut this year but it is the first time he pounded that theme, there's a danger keeping rates where they are.

the distinction, what is too long, what do you think? >> it's too long. he acknowledged clearly the considerable cooling in the labor market friday. and employment picking up the 4.1%. the market acknowledging the dual mandate, priced in 97% cut before the end of the year, and 75% of two cuts before the end of the year. 200 basis points above inflation is meaningfully restricted and we are seeing economic data slowing and slowing pretty quickly. neil: when he talks about keeping all options open, talking friendly inflation data. what is coming down the pike soon that could close the dealer push it back?

>> thursday and friday we get cpi and ppi. headlines supposed to be 3. one%, but one%, but 0.1% month by month and ppi which was the leading indicator, 2.2% and 0.1%. anything in line or below but the labor market cooling confirms what the market is saying, 75% in september, 90% chance in december. neil: if you move in september before the election, history has shown time and again it moved the election year very close to the election itself but how will that go down? >> both sides use it one way or another, they will blame the fed. a national action by politicians. at the end of the day the economic data is dictating get,

june was the first month since october 2020 where 0 global central banks hyped rates and the last time before that was march 2009 and december 2001. all of those times were good times to pay cyclical stocks meaning we will get a reprieve from some of these leaders in the first half of the year. neil: we keep doing this day in and day out, not so much the dow, what do you read on to that? >> the market is in a holding pattern until there is clarity on a rate cut coming in september. looking for the inflation data, looking for earnings, everything but politics. the market doesn't seem to care about politics right now because they know what they would be getting with trump, they know what is they would be

getting with biden. if it's not biden we won't know that until the democratic national convention because they don't want to give up the war chest by him stepping down too early. neil: they would have to give it up if it is not kamala harris. the markets from my history are very variable, tend to get the markets attention. late summer early fall, more often early fall before they move based on what they think may happen. how do you see it going this year? >> you have expectations for almost 9% earnings growth this quarter. earnings will be pretty critical. the last few quarters, the bar has been low. the bar is high. even if you get a beat of 10% or 11% versus what we've been seeing, 3% beat, going into earnings season with very high

expectations. i found the secret to happiness in life is low expectations. we will probably continue the seasonal summer strain for a few weeks but as we get into fall, more choppiness, more rotation we should be alert to. neil: i built a career on low expectations, something to be said about that. look forward to talking a little later in the show. dow, seeing a pickup in the s&p and the nasdaq, anything more, another record. edward lawrence following all this and the nato leaders coming to washington, the 75th anniversary. edward lawrence had a chance with what they are thinking about president biden. is getting a lot of extra scrutiny these days. >> nato celebrate 75 years, not

as old as president biden. nato members talk about expanding and how to get russia out of ukraine. president biden being dogged by questions about his mental fitness. it bubbled over when the white house briefing, when asked if the president met with a cognitive expert. >> guys, guys, hold on a second. there's no reason to go back and forth in this aggressive way. >> how information has been shared with the press? everything he asked about. >> every time i answer the question you guys asked. i never answered the question incorrectly. that is not true. >> reporter: president biden wants to get nato members to pay the full 2% of gdp, since russia invaded ukraine, 23 of 32 countries have met the threshold. there's pressure to add more

money because the growing anti-alliance led by russia and china. >> when i think this is the biggest issue nato is facing, the collusion of russia, china, iran, north korea and their aggressiveness in the world, war on two theaters, another in the pacific region. how do they cope with all of this together? neil: before leaving, the german chancellor said president biden has set up a fine nato meeting. in his dealings with president biden, he's not seen any mental issues. neil: thank you for that. the former assistant secretary of state for president george w. bush. what is at stake in your mind for the president? he will be scrutinized, one thing for the press corps to do it. this is all the global leaders in a couple no one's.

obviously it means every move he takes is seen through that prism. is he up to the job of leading the world? that's a lot of pressure. >> you have two things going on. one is showcasing biden and trying to resuscitate and nato leaders will try to help him resuscitate himself. we will see if he can do that. the bigger issue is what is going on behind the scenes that is substantive and realism is something in the heart of hearts all these members have to be thinking about. as you reported, 23 of 32 members paid their 2%, up from three in 2014 but the bigger reality is the united states put 52 billion, $60 billion on the deal for ukraine. on average, the rest of the

other 31 members put one. 7 billion and as we put 52 billion on the table for that, 17 million for their border. neil: with attention back on the president and his health. a number of leaders i have spoken to including latvia's president yesterday partial the little bit differently. saying it is not about the man but nato's mission. this is from latvia's president. do you have faith in president biden who had a pretty bad dbase. i can't say that in any other language. but that's the worldwide interpretation anyway. did that be date -- d8 trouble you? >> reporter: advice to comment on internal politics, nato members wouldn't be ready with internal politics. what is important to here at nato, a couple things.

support for ukraine, support for other nations. let's not forget another factor they are going to discuss, china. whether the american people could be judging from internal politics, i believe -- i will leave that debate for americans. neil: what he is saying is the ukrainian mission is vital. most of the members are intent on doing their best to help ukraine in the fight against russia, growing concerns donald trump may not feel that way. what do you think? >> donald trump probably is a realist and wants to see a peaceful outcome. we need a end game. we have no end game. the notion this will be another perpetual war, irreversible funding forever all lies on the united states. the greatest part of the for structure of nato is the united states and we have funded the

bulk of this. i was in latvia not long ago. latvia has an interest in keeping russia at bay because they could be on the frontlines of russia did get hungry. the end game, china is as others have said china is supporting russia and this is either a forever war, afghanistan version 2 or we will say no, a end game is important, we have a conflict to be prepared for and we won't drain our inventory or budget while europe sits back and waits for us to fight the war forever. neil: how much you know your history, military history, human being history, president will history, knowing you would be on about president biden and whether he's up to the job, the cognitive thing, that was on full display whether you like it or not in that debate. we didn't have the same liberties. americans didn't know a lot about the health of fdr in his

final year in august. very few knew he was confined to the wheelchair. we have little knowledge of woodrow wilson and the impact of the stroke that had his wife running the country at the time. by and large the world didn't know what we saw front and center today. before you properly correct me on that. this idea, it's a big change to see it and know it now. what do you make of that? >> you are absolutely right. i bring personal experience to this. neither one of us are alive during the periods of time of wilson and fdr, social media, the media are more forward leaning than they were then. i have known president biden for many years. i used to talk to him by phone and in person when i was training the iraqi police under colin powell. he's not the same man that he was. there's no question about that. i was unanimously confirmed as

assistant secretary of state and joe biden was the guy that chaired that hearing. that guy was, i didn't agree with him always but he was dynamic, he was always thinking ahead. you see someone who's not only in decline but seems to be in rapid decline and is it unsafe for the country? probably we have enough people around him at the pentagon, the state department and the white house that immediate decisions are well-informed but i will say i am worried because this guy cannot stand another four years and the question is how does the nation look at this friend on the way they couldn't with fdr, the way they couldn't with wilson, the way we can now, and how do we resolve this to get good leadership in the country is protected from a national security perspective? neil: that is very well put. i was around for the fdr thing.

very good perspective on this. what you know now, big impact on where we go. the secretary of state for george w. bush, former naval intelligence officer, the real mccoy, real deal. talk about another nato leader whose very influential with presidents and been the leader through barack obama and donald trump and president biden, he could finish out his term, less than a year to go, and interesting story on donald trump, that concerns how he got trump to change his tune on ukraine. a fascinating interview tonight at 4:00 p.m. . is read on this presidential race without getting directly into the politics. in the meantime, the whole dustup over the president of the united states not so much coming from wayward democrats, but very anxious donors after this. ♪

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adam: a lot of attention to democratic house members and others power wowing about the fate of the president of the united states, whether he should be replaced at the top of the ticket, easier said than done. when donors start saying the same thing it gets the attention of more folks, the money guys control where the money is going in this race. charlie gasparino, what do we have? charles: quite simply they want him out. whether he leaves or not is another star, whether they abandon him if he doesn't leave is another story. big democratic voters do anything to elect donald trump as president. it is clear and unequivocal. i'm hearing directly from them. it is like a quiet quitting that is going on here. there not showing up to

fundraisers but telling people they will in the future and some are not showing up as well. when you give money to the campaign, it means especially if you give a lot of money, you have a voice, and i can tell you the people i know from the financial sector, democrats are clearly saying get out now. whatever you are suffering from is not good, to continue with the campaign. everyone is speculating what ailment he has. twitter is filled with armchair doctors diagnosing anything from dementia to parkinson's. there was a parkinson's doctor in the oval office and i have experience with parkinson's because my father died of it and it was a five year brutal thing.

but parkinson's manifest in different ways. if this is parkinson's it explains some stuff like why he's always so frustrated. your mind it is working but motor skills aren't particularly verbal skills. it is hard to talk, you mumble. everything is working okay but you can't get it out of your mouth the. i see that in him. i'm not a doctor but even if it is parkinson's and not dementia, that is a tough road. you need some rest, you need to do drug treatment, this is difficult stuff. i actually when i watched this, i feel horrible because i saw what did to my old man. my dad got it at a very young age. 48, died 5 years later. some people live a long time with this stuff. some people lose all motor skills, some lose none. i have seen the range of this

because i went to the clinic with him. i could tell you if he does have parkinson's, that's what everyone is talking about. it is difficult to run for president. neil: we don't know for sure but we are asking questions about the parkinson's expert neurologist who has been there 8 times, we don't know the details and we are watching closely but thank you very much. doubling the president of the united states. i should stress as well the issue of the president's health as far as what the cabinet can do to take matters into their own hands forcing the president to step down is not that easy but it did come up in a hearing featuring treasury secretary janet yellen.

>> as a cabinet secretary, have you noticed any mental or cognitive decline in any of these meetings? >> the president is extremely effective in the meetings that i have been in with him. that includes many international meetings, like his meetings with president xi. neil: the 25th amendment thing which came a few hours after the assassination of john f. kennedy is meant at the cabinet to intervene and more than half thinks there are problems, the president being incapacitated, they can take action. the president asked the last line of defense can defend himself. you need a 2 thirds vote to get them to see if they see it the same way. having said that are we like that stage? >> i don't think we are at that

stage, senate democrats are needing to decide their path forward. we heard congressman jerry nadler backtrack on calls for biden to step down and he said the president is going to be the nominee, need to beat donald trump. i am curious to see if those comments from nadler could percolate through about the party. interesting get to hear how alexandria ocasio cortez, a progressive who had her disagreements with president biden over policy and many say is a generational divide on a number of issues. she has voiced her support for the president. i don't think we are at that point. the fact we are talking about this means it is concerning for the white house. the biden campaign, they have to buckle up and continue to answer these questions. this issue is not going away.

you saw that evidenced during yesterday's white house press briefing with a number of reporters from various outlets, going into verbal combat with karen jean-pierre. neil: it was a while before steve jobs admitted the degree of his cancer, pancreatic cancer he was treating holistically that didn't work out too well but a lot of people didn't know, going back to politics and jfk and illnesses that were kept from the public or fdr where so few new. i mention these disparate examples because there's a lot we don't know until we find out. in this case we saw it in real time in a single debate it doesn't negate what he's done in the last few years. some people love it, some people don't, that is not the issue and that crystallized a serious concern among americans of all stripes.

is he up to the job? that is something you can't and see. >> that is what a number of democrats have said. democrats we talk to who are very concerned about the president's performance. the question of the campaign, will he be the democratic nominee or not? if president biden is elected president he will be in his 80s. if he serves a four your term in office he is going to leave, 85, 86 years old. we've never seen that in us history. there are real concerns about the transparency surrounding his health from journalists and voters alike. just down the street from me the nato summit is happening and world leaders from across the world coming to discuss the path forward, ukraine as well as the situation in the middle east and there's going to be a

lot of questions about president biden's state. neil: the average nato leader's age is 54. i talked to poland's leader today, he's 52. most of these guys are young enough to be the president's son. it is startling when you see it that way. housing did come up at the jerome powell powwow. it is a concern for him because it is not getting better. it's one thing in the economy that look good for a majority. after this. ♪ bringing you an elevated experience, tailor-made for trader minds. ♪ go deeper with thinkorswim: our award-wining trading platforms

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at truist, we believe the same is true for banking. >> the best thing we can do for housing is getting inflation down to 2% so rates can come down so the housing market can get to the pre-pandemic, not dealing with the kind of specific things we are dealing with now. neil: jerome powell wrapped up his testimony before the senate banking committee in the house financial services committee. he is acknowledging one problem we have are significant housing

issues but not nearly so dire as someone painted them out to be. doing nothing getting in the way of people who want to sell homes at healthy profit. katrina is our real estate contributor extraordinaire. that is the conundrum for housing. it comes down to that. good for some, not for others. >> affordability continues to be the main concern in the housing market and the fact of the matter is we need lower rates. recent data does indicate that buyers or are more optimistic about the housing market. the reason is we are seeing more inventory. we have 40% more homes on the market than we did a year ago. that is across-the-board. every state has seen an increase in inventory, some more than others. affordability is the main issue.

buyers recognize homeownership is part of the american dream even if it is more challenging, provides stability and community and a great hedge against inflation. when you move out of the home you can keep the asset and turn it into an investment and collect passive income. there are many benefits not to mention kids go to school or at the mercy of a landlord. we have interest rates affecting so many people and inflation is not helping. neil: i have ordered you many times, first time i got a mortgage was 13% and we thought we were financial geniuses and

when i hear people complaining about 6% mortgage, that is half of what i pay and one day but in one day but in and unders -- an environment where we see 3% mortgages or a lot of homes and sellers aren't giving up the 3.5% mortgage it creates this dilemma. what do you see it lasting? >> i love that story and it is relative. we got used to the 2% or 3% interest rates and a lot have the rate locked in. what is the motivation to move? there really isn't any. until rates hit 6%. %. some people are being forced to relocate so they have to put their house on the market. we seen an increase in existing home sales. we see increase in property insurance. we are seeing that in texas and new orleans, louisiana area. a lot of factors affect the housing market.

the main factors are interest rates and supply. i anticipate we will continue to see more supply in the market. after the election it will affect the market because people don't have a sense of stability. so much is up in the air. after the election, things will get better. neil: always good catching up with you. you have been prescient on a lot of developments. we are following the tesla buying zeal market, tesla is on track for its 10th consecutive up a day, up 4.59% north of 11 a share, $264 a share. this had an enormous run on the belief that bad orders and everything, not doing as poorly as some thought and it is leading a technology parade. it is among those magnificent seven but was never the

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neil: this bloomer you we'll, a wheel comes off the landing gear when united airlines boeing jet was taking off and made a safe landing in denver. it happened again and raised concerns about boeing. we don't know where that is going. investigations occurring concurrently but the technology world looking at technology stocks we always talk about the magnificent seven but has the among the big tech names, this headline, i love the simplicity. the biggest risk is how well they are doing and that tesla is doing well, looks like it will score its 10th consecutive game. it is almost 5% today. they are doing well and making

money for shareholders hand over fist. thomas hayes, you don't want to do that, the longer you hold onto these issues the more they take up your portfolio. it might be fine when they are going up. it might be risky down the road. how do you tell customers about that? >> 60% of the gains in the s&p were attributable to stocks. in the second half of the year that will sift upside down. the plates are going into the surface without causing an earthquake. many are worried about a correction but that is not going to happen. what we will see is the 493, outperforming the magnificent seven in the second half and there's two reasons for this. earnings compensation, q 2 is the first quarter since 2023

that the not magnificent 4 have positive earnings growth and by q 4, they are going to grow earnings, 19% versus the magnificent seven only 17%. neil: the s&p 500, they could not keep up with those seven. that could level things out a little bit. how do you feel about technology in general? etfs that mirror the performance, overdone or just about right? >> some of these stocks have gotten ahead of themselves and i don't think they have to crash in the second half but i do think they will be a flatter performance with some of these lacquers, the first seen in the

second half and the second part of the reason is the fed is going to cut, that will enable the cyclicals, small caps accelerating into 2025 and they will outperform. may be uc less performance in the indices for the second half but you see dramatic opportunity for laggards stocks start to gallop like we saw the last two months of 2023. neil: you like them in this environment. >> crown castle which is a tower company. anything interest rate sensitive will accelerate. they underperform because of this aggressive tightening cycle. neil: the managing member knows of what he speaks, so does this next gentlemen.

stephen morgan handicapping life after barrel and the battering goes on, takes a while to stop. >> houston is no stranger to this year. we are talking several days and they are without power. especially the fact that this was only a category one hurricane, some of these wind gusts were closer to category 2 strength. the sustained winds were at most wind gusts. 97 mile-per-hour wind along the coast, some of these rain totals were impressive. it is threefold when we look at the impacts, the barrel -- beryl brought, the heavy rain in houston no stranger to that. houston is a city that is designed to flood but the story

today, the story going forward is this, look at the power outages, we are talking 2.2 million customers in texas without power and this is the path the center of beryl took, it supposed tropical cyclone without tropical influences. we are talking 2 million customers. the other thing with tropical systems which is a unique challenge especially for folks that have been impacted is what comes after. you don't get a cooler air mass behind a tropical cyclone. tropical storms don't bring cooler air, you might have clouds the keep the day of impact cooler but we are talking temperatures that will reach the mid-90s. any other given july day in the houston area, that is okay but we have heat indices that are going to approach 100, 105 degrees. that is why we have a heat advisory. the national weather service of

houston, heat advisories not implemented because the actual air temperature is 105. the reason is we have no power and there are millions of people in texas dealing with it and we will see this persist through the weekend. a long cleanup for a lot of folks on the texas coast. neil: appreciate your fine reporting. there a couple others we have to worry about. stephen morgan, fox meteorologist. eventually man is going to land on mars. for the better part of the year, four volunteers simulated, locked away from humanity, martian habitat, they just got out over this past weekend. the first reaction is what happened to joe biden in that debate? ♪

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neil: great movie, succeeding in getting back home, a fastening development, four volunteers spent a year stimulating a martian habitat, emerged from isolation and learned a few things but what happened? >> reporter: those four volunteers are in good health and excellent spirits. they emerged from their simulated martian outpost at the johnson space center in houston after spending 378 days confined to a 1700 square-foot 3d printed habitat where they grew vegetables, performed

simulated mars walks and gave nasa a better idea what to expect as the space agency plans to spend the first humans to the red planet in the next decade. this involved prolonging isolation, electronic communications with the outside world were intentionally deal laid up to 22 minutes to simulate how long it takes radio signals to travel between mars and earth. >> this has been a wonderful experience and i hope this helps us get that much closer to the reality of putting boots on mars. >> why go to mars? because it is possible. because space can unite and bring out the best in us. >> reporter: nasa is planning two more simulations like this one. you have to be a us citizen or permanent resident, between age 30, and 55, we are both too

young, and you need masters degree in a stem field and two years work experience in a stem field are nasa approved equivalent. applications of closed for the second mission which will take place next year but there are spots available for the third and final mission in 2027. applications will open sometime this fall. neil: i think i could do this but i have my own groceries i want to take with me. jackie deangelis and "the big money show" coming up. i can't tell the viewers who are volunteering me for this martian mission. they are in favor of my going. jackie: i can't believe you want to take your own groceries to space. thank you so much. i am jackie deangelis. kelly:i am kelly o'grady. brian: i am brian brenberg